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The only hope of avoiding the catastrophe after Austria declared war on
Serbia on July 28 was that the Emperors of Russia and Germany would get
together and work out some compromise. It nearly happened. For in 1914
Europe was a family of nations united by a single dynasty and a cosmopolitan
elite confessing what most considered a single Christianity, albeit divided
into Orthodox, Catholic and Protestant varieties.1
The idea was revived in a slightly different form by Tsar Alexander I, who
in 1815, fresh from his victory over Napoleon, proposed a “Holy Alliance” of
Christian monarchs (one Orthodox, one Catholic and one Protestant) against
the revolution to the kings of Austria and Prussia. This alliance, though
mocked by Metternich and the British, and based more on a common
monarchism and anti-democratism, did manage to preserve Europe against
major revolutions until the Crimean War, but then foundered when Catholic
France and Protestant Britain teamed up with the Muslim Ottoman empire
against Russia. Thus the most serious “breach of the peace”, the Europe-wide
revolution of 1848, was brought to an end by Tsar Nicholas I, invading
revolutionary Hungary in 1849. But of course no European head of state
seriously thought of the tsar of Russia as the head of a European family of
nations. Even the monarchs of Europe regarded him with fear rather than
filial love. And when Nicholas II proposed the Hague court of justice in 1899
1Tsar Nicholas II became the godfather of the future King Edward VIII at his Anglican
baptism (Carter, op. cit., p. 137), and in 1904 Kaiser Wilhelm was invited to be godfather of
the Tsarevich Alexis (Niall Ferguson, The War of the World, London: Penguin, 2007, p. 100).
as an arbitration mechanism for halting the arms race and preventing war, he
was politely (or in the Germans’ case, not so politely) ignored…
However, there was still the European royal family. Almost all the
crowned heads of Europe were united in one family, German in origin, being
made up of branches of the Saxe-Coburg dynasty.2 Thus even the matriarch
of the family, Queen Victoria of England, once told her uncle, King Leopold of
the Belgians: “My heart is so German…” 3 As for the Russians, for many
generations, the tsars and great princes had taken brides from German
princely families; Nicholas II, though thoroughly Russian in spirit, had much
more German blood than Russian in his veins; and the Tsaritsa Alexandra
and her sister Grand Duchess Elizabeth were Hessian princesses with an
English mother.4 However, a divisive factor within the family was the fact
that Alexandra and Minnie, the wives of King Edward VII of England and
Tsar Alexander III of Russia, were sisters from the Danish dynasty; for the
Danes nurtured an intense dislike of the Prussians, who had invaded their
country in 1864, and so moved their husbands, and later their sons, King
George V and Tsar Nicholas II, closer to each other and further away from
Germany, thereby weakening the traditional hostility that existed between
Russia and England and turning them against Germany. Meanwhile, the
German Kaiser Wilhelm II, a cousin of George V and Nicholas II, reacted
strongly against the liberalism of his English mother, and was attracted
towards the militarist and fiercely anti-English monarchism of the Prussian
aristocracy. In some ways, this also attracted him to autocratic Russia; but the
developing alliance between Russia, Britain and France engendered in him
and his circle a fear of “encirclement” and hostility against them all.
Nevertheless, in the summer of 1914 many hoped that the family links
between the Kaiser and the Tsar would prevent war. 5 For, as the London
Standard had observed in 1894, “the influence of the Throne in determining
the relations between European Power has never been disputed by those at all
familiar with modern politics, it is sometimes lost sight of or ignored by the
more flippant order of Democrats…”6
2 Sophie Gordon, “The Web of Royalty”, BBC History Magazine, February, 2012, pp. 16-18.
Victoria’s son, Edward VII, reacted against this Germanism by becoming very anti-German.
3 Ferguson, The War of the World, p. 97.
4 However, as Metropolitan Anastasy (Gribanovsky) pointed out, the sisters were more
English than German in their tastes and upbringing, taking after their English mother rather
than their German father ("Homily on the Seventh Anniversary of the Martyric End of
Emperor Nicholas II and the Entire Royal Family", Orthodox Life, vol. 31, no. 4, July-August,
1981).
5 This in spite of the remark of the Tsarina Alexandra in a letter to her sister, Princess Victoria
writes, “The European executives were still centred on the thrones and the men or women
who sat on them. Ministers in Germany, Austria-Hungary and Russia were imperial
appointees. The three emperors had unlimited access to state papers. They also exercised
formal authority over their respective armed forces. Dynastic institutions and networks
structured the communications between states. Ambassadors presented their credentials to
In July, 1914 it was the last chance to prevent war…
The emperors – cousins “Nicky”, “Willy” and “Georgie” - did talk, for they
knew each other well, and Nicky in particular hoped that his family ties with
Willie could prevent war... On July 29, the day after Austria declared war on
Serbia, Russian Foreign Minister Sazonov received a message from the
German chancellor via the German ambassador Pourtalès warning that if the
Russians continued their military preparations the Germans themselves
would be compelled to mobilize. This confirmed Sazonov in his belief that the
Germans had instigated the Austrians’ attack on Serbia, so he ordered the
chief of the Russian General Staff Yanushkevich to authorize a general
mobilization. However, at 9.20 p.m. the Tsar received a telegram from the
Kaiser pleading with him not to undertake military measures that would
undermine his position as mediator with Austria. At 9.30, “saying ‘I will not
be responsible for a monstrous slaughter’, the Tsar insisted that the order [for
general mobilization] be cancelled. Yanushkevich reached for the phone to
stay Dobrorolsky’s hand, and the messenger was sent running to the
telegraph to explain that an order for partial mobilization was to be
promulgated instead.” 7 Partial mobilization involved only the districts
adjoining Austria (Odessa, Kiev, Moscow, Kazan); and, as Dominic Lieven
points out, “so long as the Petersburg and Warsaw military districts were not
mobilized, Russian preparations of war against Germany could not get very
far.”8 So by the late evening of July 29, Russia had partially mobilized against
Austria, which had partially mobilized against Serbia. Germany was not yet
directly involved or threatened… However, as Sazonov hastened to tell the
Tsar at Peterhof the following afternoon (July 30), the reversal of the previous
order was impractical for purely military and logistical reasons. Reluctantly,
the Tsar agreed to revert to the order for full mobilization…
Before that, the Tsar had made another appeal to the Kaiser: “I foresee that
very soon I shall be overwhelmed by the pressure brought upon me and
forced to take extreme measures which will lead to war.” “On the morning of
30 July, when the Tsar received a telegram from Wilhelm reiterating the
the sovereign in person and direct communications and meetings between monarchs
continued to take place throughout the pre-war years; indeed, they acquired a heightened
importance” (The Sleepwalkers. How Europe Went to War in 1914, London: Penguin, 2012, p.
170).
7 Clark, op. cit., p. 521.
8 Lieven, Towards the Flame. Empire, War and the End of Tsarist Russia, London: Allen Lane,
2015, p. 333. ”Russian mobilization did not pose the deadly danger that German mobilization
would. For Germany, mobilization meant war; for Russia, as its government explained to the
Germans, it did not. ‘Russia’s armies,’ as an academic authority recently has pointed out,
could ‘remain mobile behind their frontier almost indefinitely.’ And the German government
really knew that.” (David Fromkin, Europe’s Last Summer, London: Vintage, 2005, p. 131)
warning issued by Ambassador Pourtalès on the previous day, Nicholas II
abandoned any hope that a deal between the cousins could save peace and
returned to the option of general mobilization…”9
However, the game was not yet quite over: a final exchange took place on
July 31, “after the news reached Berlin that Russia was mobilizing against
Germany as well as against Austria. The Kaiser had just finished cabling the
Czar that ‘the peace of Europe may still be maintained by you, if Russia will
agree to stop the military measures which must threaten Germany and
Austro-Hungary.’ He offered to continue his mediation efforts.
“The Czar replied: ‘I thank you heartily for your mediation which begins
to give one hope that all may yet end peacefully. It is technically impossible to
stop our military preparations which were obligatory owing to Austria’s
mobilization. We are far from wishing for war. As long as the negotiations
with Austria on Serbia’s account are taking place my troops shall not make
any provocative action. I give you my solemn word for this.’
“Meanwhile, Franz Joseph cabled the Kaiser his thanks for his mediation
offer but said it came too late. Russia had already mobilized and Austrian
troops already were marching on Serbia…”10
So in the last resort the avoidance of world war counted for less for the
Kaiser than nationalist pride and solidarity with the Austrians, and less for
the Tsar than solidarity in faith and blood with the Serbs…11
The Tsar has been accused of weakness of will and the Kaiser - of war-
mongering. But neither accusation is just. Leaving aside their differences in
faith, character and general sympathies (which were great), the Tsar and the
Kaiser had this in common: they were both monarchs in a proto-democratic
age when it was no longer possible, as it had been in the time of Louis XIV or
Peter the Great, for one man, however authoritative or authoritarian, to
impose his will on the whole nation and the whole of its administrative
machinery. And the result was profoundly tragic: the monarchs were forced
to acquiesce in a war neither of them wanted that was to destroy both their
kingdoms and the very foundations of European Christian civilization…
9 Clark, op. cit., p. 513. As he said to Sazonov: “They [the Germans] don’t want to
acknowledge that Austria mobilized before we did. Now they demand that our mobilization
be stopped, without mentioning that of the Austrians…He is asking the impossible… If I
accepted Germany’s demands now, we would be disarmed against Austria.” In fact, the
Austrians were not mobilized against Russia, but only against Serbia…
10 Fromkin, op. cit., p. 235.
11 As for the third royal cousin, the British King George V, he appealed to the Tsar to stop his
mobilization on August 1. But by then it was too late: the Germans had mobilized on the
same day, and Churchill had already mobilized the British fleet…
Left to themselves, the Tsar, the Kaiser and Emperor Franz Josef could
probably have prevented war. But all three monarchs were pushed into war
by the pressure of their subordinates, patriotic emotions and the logic of the
opposing alliances to which they had willingly ascribed, at least to some
degree. This logic had been built up on both sides over the course of several
years, and the monarchs were neither solely responsible for it nor able on
their own to free themselves from its gravitational force…
Grand Duchess Elizabeth said that the Tsar had not wanted war, but rather
blamed her cousin, the Kaiser, “who disobeyed the bidding of Frederick the
Great and Bismarck to live in peace and friendship with Russia.”12
But the Kaiser’s real tragedy was not that he disobeyed Bismarck but that
he obeyed his generals… Thus on July 28 the minister of war Falkenhayn had
reminded the Kaiser that he “no longer had control of the affair in his own
hand”. For since 1908 his position, writes Fromkin, “had been precarious. In
May 1914, only two months before Falkenhayn’s reminder, Edward House,
President Woodrow’s envoy, had reported from Berlin that ‘the ‘military
oligarchy’ were supreme, were ‘determined on war’ and were prepared to
‘dethrone the Kaiser the moment he showed indications of taking a course
that would lead to peace.’ Of course, Wilhelm, whose grip on reality was
fragile at best, may not have been fully alive to the perils of his position.
Alternatively, House may have exaggerated.
“But there can be little doubt that much was going on of which the
emperor was unaware. Indeed, among the things that Wilhelm did not know
was that, the day before, [Foreign Minister] Jagow had cabled Vienna urging
– indeed, practically ordering – the Austrian government to declare war on
Serbia immediately. Jagow warned that the English proposal for a conference
to keep the peace could not be resisted much longer. The German foreign
minister neither consulted the Kaiser before sending this warning not
informed him afterwards that it had been sent.
“In Austria, too, a reluctant monarch was gotten around. Emperor Franz
Joseph was hesitant about declaring war, and his ministers were obliged to
obtain his assent in order to do so. Berthold obtained that assent by reporting
– falsely – that Serbian troops had opened fire on Austrian forces. Actually –
and it was only one isolated incident – it was Austrian troops who had fired
on Serbs…”13
In the past the Kaiser’s bombast had always given way in the end to
caution. And now, on August 1, just as the German army was mobilizing in
the West, the Kaiser, on the basis of some misinterpreted telegrams from the
12 Abbot Seraphim, Martyrs of Christian Duty, Peking, 1929; quoted in Lyubov Millar, Grand
Duchess Elizabeth of Russia, Redding, Ca.: Nikodemos Publication Society, 1993, p. 176.
13 Fromkin, op. cit., pp. 219-220.
British Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey, again counseled caution, calling
for the troops to be halted on the promise of Anglo-French neutrality. If
France was going to stay out of the war, the plan had to be changed to
concentrate all of Germany’s forces on Russia.
“According to Moltke, ‘the Kaiser, without asking me, turned to the aide-
de-camp on duty and commanded him to telegraph immediate instructions…
not to march into Luxembourg. I thought my heart would break.’ With
England and France refusing to be drawn into the war, ‘The final straw,’
Moltke exploded, ‘would be if Russia now also fell away.’ Germany would be
deprived of enemies!”14
Moltke threw a tantrum, and “implored the Kaiser not to hinder the
occupation of Luxembourg on the grounds that this would jeopardize
German control of its railway route.” Wilhelm retorted: “Use other routes!”
Now Moltke became “almost hysterical. In a private aside to the Minister of
War Erich von Falkenhayn, the chief of the General Staff confided, close to
tears, ‘that he was a totally broken man, because the decision by the Kaiser
demonstrated to him that the Kaiser still hoped for peace’.”
So the Kaiser nearly prevented the catastrophe. But he bent his own
sovereign will before that of his subject, the true war-mongerer, Moltke. In the
end the Kaiser betrayed his own monarchist ideals – and paid for it with his
own crown and his country’s defeat…
Did the Tsar also bow before his subjects and thereby lose his crown? Not
exactly… The Tsar was limited, not only by the highly nationalist sympathies
of the press and most of his ministers, but also by the constitution (because
that is what it was) imposed on him in 1906, which he could get round
temporarily by the emergency use of Article 87, but not on a regular basis.
Moreover, he was the victim of what may only be called a campaign of national
disobedience, not only from avowed revolutionaries, but also from Duma
deputies and Zemstvo officers, Grand Dukes and generals, workers and
peasants. So it was not only the family ties of the general European family
that broke down in 1914: it was also the bonds of the Russian family, who
disobeyed their batyushka-father-tsar, and in a tide of nationalist emotion
forced his hand, compelling him to join a war that destroyed him, the state
The tsar was not to blame. “The emperor is sometimes accused,” writes
Lieven, “of ‘caving in’ to his generals in 1914 and thereby bringing on the
descent into war. This is unfair. Nicholas was forced by the united pressure
not just of the generals but also of the Foreign Ministry, the de facto head of
the domestic government, and the spokesmen of the Duma and public
opinion. In many ways, the surprise is that the emperor held out on his own
for so long…”16
“We have swallowed enough of it since the time of Peter the Great! And
without that the Germans have torn away from the Russian nation, from
Russian history and the Orthodox Church its aristocracy and intelligentsia;
but in the event of a total submission to the German governmental authority,
at last the simple people would have been corrupted. We already have
enough renegades from the simple people under the influence of the Germans
and of German money. These are above all those same Protestants who so
hypocritically cry out for peace. Of course, they were not all conscious traitors
and betrayers of their homeland, they did not all share in those 2.000,000
marks which were established by the German government (and a half of it
from the personal fortune of the Kaiser) to be spent on the propagation of
Protestant chapels in Russia…”17
At the deepest level, therefore, the First World War, at any rate on the
Eastern front, was a religious war whose outcome would have huge religious
consequences: if Russia won, the liberation of Russian Orthodoxy from its
Finally, a word should be said about the pessimism and fatalism that,
according to some, seemed to overcome all the main actors in the tragedy at
this time. This is most clearly evident in the German Chancellor Bethmann,
whose acquiescence to the war party Lieven finds “bewildering”.19 After all,
Bethmann had successfully opposed the military’s warmongering for several
years. Why did he give in to the idea of a war that he considered “a leap in
the dark”?
18 Troitsky, “Bogoslovie i Svoboda Tserkvi” (Theology and the Freedom of the Church),
Bogoslovskij Vestnik (Theological Herald), September, 1915, vol. 3, Sergiev Posad; reprinted in
Kaluga in 2005, p. 4.
19 Lieven, Towards the Flame, p. 317.
20 Clark, op. cit., p. 359.
everything that exists. The existing [world] very antiquated, without ideas…
Thick fog over the people. The same in all Europe. The future belongs to
Russia, which grows and grows and weighs upon us as an ever heavier
nightmare… The Chancellor very pessimistic about the intellectual condition
of Germany.’ On 20 July Bethmann returned to his Russian theme: ‘Russia’s
claims [are] growing [along with her] enormously explosive strength… In a
few years no longer to be warded off, particularly when the present European
constellation persists.’ A week later, he told Riezler that he felt ‘a fate [Fatum]
greater than human power hanging over Europe and our own people.’ The
mood of near despair, sometimes attributed by cultural historians to excessive
exposure to the works of Nietzsche, Wagner and Schopenhauer, becomes
more intelligible when the military realities of Europe in 1914 are
considered…”21
How different was the so-called “fatalism” of Tsar Nicholas II. The Tsar’s
“fatalism” should rather be called “providentialism”, or simply “faith”, an
unwavering belief in God’s omnipotence and complete control of world
history. He certainly believed in the proverb: “A man’s heart plans his way,
but the Lord directs his steps” (Proverbs 16.9). And even more in the proverb:
“The heart of the king is in the hand of the Lord. Like the rivers of water, He
turns it wherever He wishes” (Proverbs 21.1). It was not for him to argue with
God, Who declares: “I make peace, and I create calamity: I, the Lord, do all
these things” (Isaiah 45.8). For “it is not for [us] to know the times or seasons
which the Father has put in His own authority” (Acts 1.7).
Unlike all those around him, the Tsar had a secret, God-given knowledge,
which in spite of its tragic content brought him, not despair, but peace. For he
knew - probably from the letter he received from St. Seraphim at Sarov in
21Ferguson, The War of the World, London: Penguin, 2007, pp. 98-99. “Yet Bethmann,” writes
Fromkin, “felt that Germany had no choice. The portrait that he painted of the country’s
international position showed a dark and even paranoid vision, with dangers exaggerated.
As he saw it, Germany was ‘completely paralyzed’, and its rivals, the allied powers of Russia,
France and Britain, knew it. ‘The future belongs to Russia which is growing and is becoming
an ever-increasing nightmare to us.’ Even the Dual Monarchy would ally with Russia in
order to go with the winner. Germany would be alone and helpless in the world of
international politics…” (op. cit., p. 181)
1903, which had such a shattering effect on him and the Tsarina, but also from
other sources – that all his efforts to save Russia from war and catastrophe
would fail, and that he himself would die in 1918. So while he struggled
bravely against what his and Russia’s tragic destiny, he knew – in 1914, as
during his abdication in 1917 – that at a certain point he would have to
surrender. For he knew that “there is a tide in the affairs of men”, and that the
tide in European politics, all over the continent, was towards war – a tide that
no man could resist indefinitely.
The Tsar might have resisted the tide for a while, as he resisted it in 1912;
but it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that he felt he had no real alternative
but to go to war eventually. The best he could do was choose a time when
honour and loyalty (to his allies, to the Serbs and, above all, to Holy
Orthodoxy) provided a moral justification for war. And that time came in
July, 1914.
The die was now cast: the Tsar published his order for general
mobilization on July 31. The Germans declared war the next day, August 1.
That was the feastday inaugurated by the tsar himself commemorating the
translation of the relics of St. Seraphim of Sarov in 1903 – that is, the feast of
the great prophet of the last times, who had foretold both the Great War and
how tragically it would end for the Tsar and for Russia…
“In a sitting room behind this balcony waited Grand Duchess Elizabeth,
dressed in her white habit; her face was aglow, her eyes shining. Perhaps,
writes Almedingen, she was thinking, ‘What are revolutionary agents
compared with these loyal crowds? They would lay down their lives for
Nicky and their faith and will win in the struggle.’ In a state of exaltation she
made her way from the Winter Palace to the home of Grand Duke
Constantine, where his five sons – already dressed in khaki uniforms – were
preparing to leave for the front. These sons piously received Holy
Communion and then went to the Romanov tombs and to the grave of
Blessed Xenia of Petersburg before joining their troops.”22
22Lyubov Millar, Grand Duchess Elizabeth of Russia, Redding, Ca.: Nikodemos Publication
Society, 1993, p. 171.
conservatives had warned against war for its ability to stoke revolution. The
actual experience of mobilization suggested that such fears had been
exaggerated: ‘As if by magic the revolutionary disorders had died down at
the announcement of war’. In Petrograd (as St. Petersburg had been
renamed), ‘patriotic fervour had gripped the workmen… They cheered us
enthusiastically as we marched by their factories.’ Ninety-six per cent of
reservists reported for duty, a rate not far behind that of France.”23
The great tragedy of the war was that the lofty patriotic-religious mood
prevalent at least in some parts of the country at the beginning did not last,
and those who rapturously applauded the Tsar in August, 1914 were baying
for his blood less than three years later…
The Tsar sincerely wanted and strove for peace, knowing better than
anyone what the terrible consequences of the war would be. But he also knew
that it is God Who controls the destinies of nations. Who was he – who was
any man? – to resist the will of God if He wanted to punish His people and all
the nations in accordance with His inscrutable judgements?
23 Strachan, The First World War, London: Pocket Books, 2006, p. 141.
24 Strachan, op. cit., p. 141.
purpose than through millions of voters who do not know their right hand
from their left and have no special training or knowledge of politics. Vox
populi, contrary to the popular saying, is not (usually) Vox Dei.
And if it is objected that the anointed king may be evil or blind to the truth
for some reason or other, then we reply: Of course, where men are involved,
there is sin, and therefore the possibility of error. But the possibility of error is
surely increased many times if the masses make the decision – which they
may then weaken by their divisions or overthrow at the next election.
Solomon asked wisdom from God and was granted it, in spite of the fact that
he did not live a spotless life. But when do the teeming masses ask for
wisdom from God?
In any case, if the king defies the will of God, God can remove him as He
removed Saul – unless, of course, He judges that the people are not worthy of
having a better king. But if they are worthy, then He can and will provide
them with such a king, a king “after My own heart” a king like David or Tsar
Nicholas II, who, though sinful like all men, still loved God and strove to
know and do His will. The question then becomes: will the people continue to
be worthy of such a king? And will they honour and obey him?