Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Hotel Market Study
Hotel Market Study
FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS
PREPARED FOR:
POSITIVELY CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND, OHIO
PREPARED BY:
PKF CONSULTING
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA
Positively Cleveland
c/o Mr. David Gilbert, President & CEO
334 Euclid Avenue
Cleveland, Ohio 44114
As you requested, we have prepared a market study with financial projections for, and
made recommendations concerning, the proposed development of a hotel to be
developed on a site adjacent to the new Cleveland Convention Center in downtown
Cleveland, Ohio. This report summarizes our findings, conclusions, recommendations and
estimates of performance for the property for its first five full fiscal years of operation
assuming an opening date of July 1, 2017.
As in all studies of this type, the estimated results assume and are based upon competent
and efficient management and presume no significant changes in the competitive position
of the lodging industry in the market area from those set forth in this report. The
conclusions reached are based upon our present knowledge of the subject area’s lodging
market as of the completion of our fieldwork, concluded on May 24, 2013.
The estimates herein are preliminary in nature and are subject to refinement as the
facilities’ program for the subject hotel evolves and a brand and operator are selected.
The terms of our engagement are such that we have no obligation to revise this report or
the estimated operating results herein to reflect events or conditions that occur subsequent
to the date of the completion of our fieldwork. However, we are available to discuss the
necessity for revision in view of changes in the economic or market factors affecting the
proposed project. Since the estimated operating results are based on estimates and
assumptions that are subject to uncertainty and variation, we do not represent them as
results that will actually be achieved.
This report has been prepared for your use and the use of government agencies and
prospective developers, investors, lenders and hotel franchisors. The report and its
contents, however, may not be quoted in any appraisal, prospectus or other document
without our prior written consent.
We would be pleased to hear from you if we can be of further assistance in the
interpretation and application of our findings and conclusions. We appreciate your
selection of PKF Consulting to provide professional services.
Sincerely,
PKF Consulting
th
PKF Consulting USA | 8 Penn Center – 19 Floor | Philadelphia, PA 19103
TEL: 215-563-5300 | FAX: 215-563-1977 | www.pkfc.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS
MAY 2013
Section I: Introduction and Scope of Services I-1
INTRODUCTION
PKF Consulting was retained to conduct research and prepare analyses to enable it to
determine if a hotel (“the Hotel”) proximate to or adjoining the new Cleveland Conven-
tion Center and the Global Center for Health Innovation in downtown Cleveland, Ohio
would be viable from a marketability standpoint and, if so, to make recommendations
regarding the Hotel and prepare estimates of operating performance for the recom-
mended property.
Based on the characteristics of the downtown Cleveland lodging market, the attributes of
the primary competitors to the new Convention Center and the hotels that serve them and,
to a large degree, the potential for hotel room-night generation perceived from the new
Convention Center and Global Center, we recommend that a 600-room branded hotel be
built on the subject site with an appropriate array of restaurant, lounge, meeting and
banquet and other support spaces.
It has been assumed herein that the Hotel will open on July 1, 2017 and will be
independently operated by a qualified hotel management firm.
SCOPE OF SERVICES
In completing this assignment, we performed numerous tasks. Specifically, we:
MAY 2013
Section II: Market Area Review II-1
The purpose of this section is to review pertinent economic and demographic data to
determine the current economic climate in the subject market area, its potential for
growth and the degree to which it could support the subject hotel as envisioned.
AREA OVERVIEW
The proposed hotel’s site is located in the heart of downtown Cleveland, Ohio. The
Cleveland Metropolitan Statistical Area (“MSA”) includes the five counties of Cuyahoga
(within which the City of Cleveland is located), Geauga, Lake, Lorain and Medina.
Dubbed "Polymer Valley," the metropolitan Cleveland area has the largest concentra-
tion of polymer companies in the United States. This and other manufacturing industries
have historically formed the foundation of the area’s economy.
Today, more than 37 percent of all Fortune 500 companies are present in Cleveland or
the surrounding northeast Ohio region through corporate headquarters, major divisions,
subsidiaries, and sales offices. In addition, more than 160 engineering companies are
located in the MSA and over 100 biotechnology firms are located in northeast Ohio,
along with more than 100 research laboratories. The Cleveland Clinic Health System is
one of the world’s foremost healthcare institutions and has the nation's largest hospital-
based department of biomedical engineering.
The following two maps indicate the location of the proposed hotel’s site within Cleve-
land’s downtown and the surrounding region.
Market Area Review II-2
The following sections of the report present statistical and other information that provide
some indication of the relative economic and demographic health of the area surround-
ing the subject site.
POPULATION TRENDS
2012
(1)
2000 2010 C.A.C* Estimate C.A.C
(2)
City of Cleveland 478,403 396,815 -1.9% 393,806 -0.8%
Cuyahoga County 1,393,978 1,280,122 -0.8% 1,265,111 -0.6%
Cleveland MSA 2,148,143 2,077,240 -0.3% 2,063,535 -0.3%
U.S.A. 281,424,602 308,747,508 0.9% 313,914,040 0.8%
(1) Compound Annual Change
(2) 2011 Estimate
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
The populations of the City, County and MSA have each been in decline over the past
two-plus decades. These trends have contrasted with the experience of the U.S. overall,
which grew consistently over this period. Today, with a population of approximately 2.1
million, the Cleveland MSA is the 29th-largest in the U.S.
The City and County are relatively less affluent than the national average, as indicated in
the comparative household income and housing value data in the table to follow.
Market Area Review II-3
However, Cuyahoga County on the whole is significantly more affluent than the City, with
income comparable to the national average.
EMPLOYMENT
A review of employment trends offers an indication of the relative health of the subject
market area.
The data in the following table presents employment and unemployment data for the City
of Cleveland, Cuyahoga County, the MSA and the U.S. from 2010 through March 2013.
These data provide insight as to the magnitude of, and trends in, employment that sur-
rounds the subject site.
March March
(1)
Area/Metric 2010 2011 2012 CAC 2012 2013
City of Cleveland:
Labor Force 165.6 163.9 162.7 -0.9% 161.3 158.3
Employed 146.4 146.7 147.3 0.3% 146.1 144.2
Unemployment 11.6% 10.5% 9.5% 9.4% 8.9%
Cuyahoga County
Labor Force 633.6 628.1 625.5 -0.6% 619.8 609.8
Employed 575.9 577.2 579.6 0.3% 574.9 567.2
Unemployment 9.1% 8.1% 7.3% 7.2% 7.0%
Cleveland MSA:
Labor Force 1,064.3 1,058.4 1,054.7 -0.5% 1,046.8 1,030.5
Employed 970.1 975.7 979.9 0.5% 971.9 958.7
Unemployment 8.9% 7.8% 7.1% 7.2% 7.0%
United States:
Labor Force 153,889 153,617 154,975 0.4% 154,316 154,512
Employed 139,064 139,869 142,469 1.2% 141,412 142,698
Unemployment 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% -- 8.4% 7.6%
(1) Compound Annual Change; not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Market Area Review II-4
The preceding data indicate recovery from the recession, which “bottomed-out” in 2010,
has begun, with increasing levels of employment, but with unemployment percentages
that remain stubbornly high. While the City’s unemployment rate is higher than the na-
tional average, rates in the County and MSA are significantly lower. Also notable are the
contracting labor forces in the City, County and MSA which contrast with the nation’s
growth overall.
Average employment breakdowns by category over the period 2000 through 2011 for
Cuyahoga County are presented in the following table.
CUYAHOGA COUNTY
EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY MAJOR SECTOR
2000 2007-2011 Avg.
# of # of %
Sector Jobs % Jobs % Change
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 901 0% 1,264 0% 40%
Construction 28,952 5% 23,771 4% -18%
Manufacturing 102,279 16% 73,144 12% -28%
Wholesale trade 24,570 4% 19,018 3% -23%
Retail trade 68,699 11% 62,055 11% -10%
Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 30,779 5% 26,243 4% -15%
Information 17,821 3% 12,595 2% -29%
Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and
54,773 9% 48,316 8% -12%
leasing
Professional, scientific, and management, and adminis-
64,340 10% 63,067 11% -2%
trative and waste management services
Educational services, and health care and social assis-
137,562 22% 153,004 26% 11%
tance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommoda-
48,796 8% 51,841 9% 6%
tion and food services
Other services, except public administration 28,090 4% 26,685 5% -5%
Public administration 26,857 4% 25,403 4% -5%
Total Non-Farm Employment 634,419 100% 586,406 100% -8%
Source: U.S. Census
The data in the preceding table indicate that Educational Services, Health Care and So-
cial Assistance is the largest employment category in the Counties, representing 26 per-
cent of the employment. This sector grew by a healthy 11 percent over the 2000 to 2011
period. As has been the case throughout most of the Midwest, the Manufacturing sector
experienced a significant decline over the past decade-plus, having contracted by 28 per-
cent over this period and now representing 12 percent of employment.
The table on the following page presents the most recent data available (2011) con-
cerning the largest existing private employers in the MSA.
Market Area Review II-5
At some 34,000 workers, the Cleveland Clinic Health System is by far the largest single
private sector employer in the MSA. This and other health care providers account for four
of the MSA’s top10 private employers.
In addition to the companies and organizations mentioned above, the following Fortune
1,000 companies are headquartered in Cleveland:
“The Cleveland industrial and office markets had a strong start to 2013.
Both sectors combined for close to two (2) million square feet of positive
absorption in the first quarter. Manufacturing companies accounted for
most of the activity in industrial, while biotech firms made up the most
movement in office. In the U.S., both of these sectors have been driving
recent economic improvements and job creation which bodes well for the
city of Cleveland and its surrounding suburbs.
A major factor in the market activity has been the substantial amount of
tax credits that are available statewide. These tax credits have
Market Area Review II-6
The outlook for 2013 is generally positive, with the potential for sustained
tenant growth rather than the space-neutral or modest gains of the last
two years.”
The Hotel’s site is located in Colliers International’s “Downtown” sub-market, which an-
chors the region’s office market and is also a major hub of industrial development. Rel-
evant first quarter 2013 industrial and office market statistics are summarized in the
following table.
TOURISM
Tourism activities generate substantial amounts of lodging demand and offer an indica-
tion of the vitality of the Cleveland hotel market.
museum attracted some 460,600 visitors. Neighboring attractions include the Great
Lakes Science Center, the Steamship Mather Museum, and the USS Cod, a World War
II submarine.
Cleveland's professional sports teams include the Cleveland Indians (Major League
Baseball), Cleveland Browns (National Football League), and Cleveland Cavaliers
(National Basketball Association). All three of these teams play their games at facilities
in downtown Cleveland and, in aggregate, attracted over 2.1 million attendees to games
in 2012. While most attendees to these sporting events originate from within the Cleve-
land area, many come from outside the area to follow visiting teams. Attendees of
sporting, entertainment and trade events from outside the area often stay overnight,
especially on weekends. The following table summarizes recent historical trends in
home-game attendance for these three sports teams.
ANNUAL ATTENDANCE
MAJOR CLEVELAND SPORTS FRANCHISES
Year
Franchise/Measure 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average
Indians (MLB)
Total Home Attendance 1,776,904 1,394,812 1,840,835 1,603,596 1,654,037
Per-Game Average 22,492 17,435 22,726 19,797 20,613
th th th th th
League Rank 25 30 24 29 27
Browns (NFL)
Total Home Attendance 551,110 528,933 526,874 533,058 534,994
Per-Game Average 68,889 66,117 65,859 66,632 66,874
th th th th th
League Rank 15 20 18 18 18
Cavaliers (NBA)
(1) (2)
Total Home Attendance 820,439 843,042 824,595 525,577 829,359
Per-Game Average 20,011 20,562 20,112 15,927 19,153
th nd rd th th
League Rank 5 2 3 19 7
(1) Strike-shortened season
(2) Due to strike-shortened 2012 season, average taken of 2009-2011 seasons only
Sources: Major League Baseball; National Football League; National Basketball Associa-
tion
Fashion Week Cleveland, the City's annual fashion event, is one of the few internation-
ally recognized fashion industry events in North America. The annual Ingenuity Fest,
Notacon and TEDxCLE conference focus on the combination of art and technology.
The Cleveland International Film Festival has been held annually since 1977, and typi-
cally attracts over 60,000 attendees. Cleveland also hosts an annual holiday display
lighting and celebration, dubbed Winterfest, which is held downtown at the city's historic
hub, Public Square.
Cleveland also has a vibrant theater district. The Playhouse Square Center, located in
downtown Cleveland approximately 0.5 miles east of the Hotel’s site, is the second-
largest theater complex in the United States (second only to New York City’s Lincoln
Center). Theaters currently operating at the Playhouse Square Center include:
Market Area Review II-8
The Horseshoe Casino Cleveland, a Caesar’s property, opened in May of 2012 and is
the first casino to be built in the state of Ohio. The 96,000-square-foot facility is located
in downtown Cleveland approximately three blocks southwest of the hotel’s site. Horse-
shoe has 1,846 slot machines and 119 table games. While the Casino does not offer
on-site lodging, per se, the adjoining Ritz-Carlton Hotel reportedly now owes much of its
business to casino players. The table below presents the casino revenue (after payouts
to winners) data for the Horseshoe Casino since its opening.
The map and key on the following page identify the locations of these area attractions.
Section II: Market Area Review II-9
CONVENTION CENTER
The prior convention center was an extension to the Public Auditorium or Public Hall,
which opened in 1922. The expanded facility is comprised of a classic building and was
adequate for conventions of “its day” when it opened in 1964. With the plethora of new
relatively column-free and high-ceilinged convention centers built in cities throughout
the nation in the 1990’s and 2000’s with the aid of federal and state funds, the Cleve-
land facility quickly became non-competitive for first-class conventions, trade shows
and events. While the auditorium and stage remain functional, it became clear that
Cleveland required a new state-of-the-art facility to regain a competitive position in the
convention and group meeting market.
In response to this situation, the new Cleveland Convention Center (“the Center”) is
under construction between East and West Mall Drives and St. Clair Avenue and to the
north of East Lakeside Avenue and is scheduled to host its first event in June 2013.
Most of the new convention center will be underground, with landscaped event and pe-
destrian areas above. The Center’s new 32,000-square-foot ballroom, however, will
have glass walls and will overlook Lake Erie. Features of the new Center include:
• Three main adjoining exhibit halls totaling some 226,000 square feet with:
o 90-foot column spacings
o 30-foot ceiling heights
• A 32,000-square-foot divisible ballroom
• 26 meeting rooms totaling some 50,000 square feet and ranging in size from
800 to 6,600 square feet
• Some 57,000 square feet of pre-function space
• Food and beverage, restroom and other support facilities
• A spacious truck dock
The following are layouts of the floors of the new Cleveland Convention Center.
Upper Registration & Meeting Room Floor (with Ramps to the Global Center)
Market Area Review II-11
Ballroom Floor
• The Ohio Music Education Association (~9,000 attendees; 2,575 hotel room-
nights; three-year commitment)
• The CleanMed Conference & Exposition (>1,500 attendees; 1,500 room-
nights)
• Ohio Optometric Association’s “EastWest Eye Conference” (>1,500 at-
tendees; 1,125 room-nights; three-year commitment)
• Industrial Supply Association (>1,500 attendees; 2,800 room-nights)
• National Association of Housing & Redevelopment Officials (>1,500 at-
tendees; 4,300 room-nights)
• Content Marketing World (~1,500 attendees; 3,500 room-nights; multi-year
commitment)
As of the end of March 2013, definite bookings for the Center totaled approximately
50,200 room-nights for 2013, 15,000 in 2014, 28,400 in 2015 and lesser amounts in
future years. Tentative bookings at that time totaled 7,300 in 2013, 31,900 in 2014,
30,800 in 2015, 46,200 in 2016, 32,100 in 2017 and lesser amounts thereafter. Once
the Center and Global Center open and can establish a reputation, these numbers
should increase. The targeted room-night goal for the Convention Center, as of March
2013, is approximately 104,000 room-nights.
In addition to the bookings in hand, the Center has “lost” over 183,000 room-nights of
convention demand due to conflicting dates, pricing and, in many cases, the inability of
the City to offer either a large enough headquarters hotel or enough “blocked” rooms in
close proximity to the Center.
The Center is being jointly sold by Positively Cleveland, the City’s convention and busi-
ness bureau, and MMPI, who manage both the Center and the Global Center.
• Floor 1 – Health and Home (plus the major atrium gateway to the convention
center, an 11,000-square-foot junior ballroom and 8,200 square feet of pre-
function/event space)
• Floor 2 – People, Patients and Caregivers
• Floor 3 – Clinical Spaces
• Floor 4 – Healthcare IT
Various companies and organizations will present changing exhibits on new
procedures, technigues, products and medical treatment theories and will host
symposia, conferences and product demonstrations and training sessions.
Two major tenants of the Global Center (of the over 50 that have been announced) are:
GE Healthcare, which will present the “Disease Pathway”, with displays, showcases
and presentations addressing breast cancer, heart disease and Alzheimer’s; and,
Healthcare Management and Information Systems (or “HIMSS”) which will occupy the
fourth floor of the Global Center and have a continuous stream of visitors, from near
and far, coming to be educated on the latest in the exploding world of information
systems for the healtcare industry. It is conceivable that HIMSS alone could host 40 to
50 visitors per day (or some 10,000 per year), many from out of town.
It is envisioned that the Global Center will not only generate thousands of individual
commercial traveler hotel room-nights with industry professionals staying abreast of
what’s new in the healthcare industry and small groups (seminars, conferences, etc.),
but will be the attraction that tips the scales for meeting planners responsible for
booking medium- and large-sized healthcare association and professional conventions
and meetings. (The InterContinental Hotel and the other hotels around the Cleveland
Clinic already attract a significant amount of this business without benefit of the Global
Center and a convention center.)
The following are floor-by-floor layouts of the Global Center, with the first floor indicating
its linkage with the Convention Center.
Market Area Review II-14
First Floor
Highway access into downtown Cleveland is provided directly via I-90. I-90 is the prima-
ry east/west highway route through the area, passing approximately seven blocks south
of the Hotel’s site via 9th Street. Interstate 71 originates just southwest of the downtown
area, approximately 4.6 miles (an eight minute drive via I-90) south of the proposed
Market Area Review II-15
hotel’s site and is the primary route from downtown Cleveland to Cleveland-Hopkins
International Airport (CLE). State Route 2 (“Cleveland Memorial Shoreway”) also pro-
vides direct access into downtown Cleveland, branching off of I-90 and passing the Ho-
tel’s site two blocks north via 9th Street. Superior Avenue, running southeast/northwest
two blocks south of the Hotel’s site, is a primary local conduit through the downtown.
The Hotel’s site is 14.5 miles (a 20-minute drive) northeast of Cleveland-Hopkins Inter-
national Airport (“CLE”). CLE is the City's commercial international airport and serves
as one of three main hubs for United Airlines. The airport holds the distinction of having
the first airport-to-downtown rapid transit connection in North America, established in
1968. In 2011 (most recent full year available) CLE accommodated some 9.2 million
passengers, down from approximately 11.5 million in 2007, prior to the inset of the most
recent recession.
In addition to CLE, Cleveland is served by Burke Lakefront Airport, on the north shore
of downtown between Lake Erie and the Cleveland Memorial Shoreway. Burke is pri-
marily a commuter and business airport, accommodating private aircraft traffic.
Amtrak provides service to Cleveland via the Capitol Limited and Lake Shore Limited
routes, which stop at Cleveland Lakefront Station two blocks north of the Hotel’s site.
Cleveland has also been identified as a hub for the proposed Ohio Hub project, which
would eventually bring high-speed rail to Ohio. There have been several proposals for
commuter rail in Cleveland over the years, including an ongoing study into a Sandusky–
Cleveland line.
Thus, the subject site is very well located in relation to the region’s transportation net-
work.
CONCLUSIONS
The condition of the U.S. economy continues to improve, albeit sluggishly. Unemploy-
ment rates are expected to remain on a slow downward trajectory over the next several
years. The general consensus amongst the experts is that the U.S. economy will con-
tinue to recover with between two and three percent GDP growth.
Unemployment rates in the City of Cleveland are expected to remain above the national
average, but the County and MSA should continue to experience rates lower than the
national average. Several developments taking place downtown bode well for the area’s
hotel market. Specifically, the recent opening of the Horseshoe Casino and the upcom-
ing openings of the new Cleveland Convention Center and the Global Center for Health
Innovation will generate new demand for hotel lodging and expand downtown Cleve-
land’s tourism and visitation profile.
In sum, we believe that the area around the subject site and its central location within a
major metropolitan area are deemed quite suitable for, and should be supportive to, the
development of a convention hotel and should successfully attract a mix of convention
and group meeting attendees, tourists and commercial travelers.
SECTION III: COMPARABLE/COMPETITIVE
CONVENTION CENTERS & CONVENTION
CENTER HOTELS
MAY 2013
Section III: Comparable/Competitive Convention Centers &
Convention Center Hotels III-1
This section of the report discusses the convention centers, and supporting lodging
markets, deemed most relevant to the new Cleveland Convention Center (and the ad-
joining Global Center for Health Innovation, formerly known as the Cleveland Medical
Mart) and the proposed convention headquarters hotel (“the Hotel”).
The following pages describe the selected convention centers and related hotel invento-
ries in alphabetical order.
Cincinnati
The Duke Energy Convention Center opened in 1968 in downtown Cincinnati. It has
been expanded and renovated, with the last major $135 million expansion completed in
2006. At that time, management of the Duke Center was taken over by Global Spec-
trum. The following is a photograph of the exterior of the Center.
Section III: Comparable/Competitive Convention Centers &
Convention Center Hotels III-2
The Duke Center offers some 750,000 square feet of total space as follows:
• 195,000 square feet of exhibit hall space
• 31 meeting rooms with approximately 44,300 square feet of space
• Grand ballroom of 40,000 square feet
• Junior ballroom of 17,000 square feet
The following are the floor plans for the Duke Energy Center:
Section III: Comparable/Competitive Convention Centers &
Convention Center Hotels III-3
The Cincinnati USA annual report for 2011 reported that the Center had an attendance
of 798,378 in 2011 from 163 events with 334 event-days. The attendance was broken
down as follows: 37 percent conventions; 35 percent consumer shows; 11 percent trade
shows; 9 percent special events; and, 4 percent each for meetings and banquets. Ac-
cording to Cincinnati USA, it booked some 206,000 hotel room-nights in 2012, roughly
the same as in 2011 and 2010.
The Duke Energy Center has two hotels connected to it by walkways/bridges: the 872-
room Millenium Hotel and the 486-room Hyatt Regency Hotel. In 2012, these two hotels
experienced a combined occupancy of 50.9 percent at an aggregate average room rate
of $105.49. The combined results for 2012 were diluted by the lackluster performance of
the Millenium Hotel. Including the two hotels attached to the Center, there are a total of
five hotels with 2,521 rooms in the immediate vicinity of the Center. In 2012, these ho-
tels reported an aggregate occupancy of 60.3 percent at an average room rate of
$128.43. According to Smith Travel Research, these five hotels garnered some 40 per-
cent of their occupied rooms from the group segment in 2012. This would equate to ap-
proximately 1,135 occupied group rooms for every 1,000 square feet of exhibit space in
the Duke Energy Center.
The Microsoft MapPoint map on the following page indicates the location of the Duke
Energy Center and a .3-mile radius around the Center. Also shown are symbols and, in
most cases, names for the hotels located within the .3-mile radius.
Section III: Comparable/Competitive Convention Centers &
Convention Center Hotels III-4
Columbus
The Greater Columbus Convention Center is located in downtown Columbus near the
Nationwide Arena. This uniquely-designed facility is operated by SMG. A following is a
photograph of the Center.
The Columbus Center offers some 440,000 square feet of total space as follows:
• 339,000 square feet of exhibit hall space
• 61 meeting rooms with approximately 58,100 square feet of space
• Grand ballroom of 25,000 square feet
• Junior ballroom of 14,700 square feet
The following are the floor plans for the Columbus Center:
Section III: Comparable/Competitive Convention Centers &
Convention Center Hotels III-5
Section III: Comparable/Competitive Convention Centers &
Convention Center Hotels III-6
The Greater Columbus Convention Center has two hotels connected to it by walk-
ways/bridges: the 532-room Hilton Hotel, which opened in mid-October of 2012, and the
633-room Hyatt Regency Hotel. In 2012, these two hotels experienced a combined oc-
cupancy of 66.8 percent at an aggregate average room rate of $126.31 despite the par-
tial-year ramp-up results of the Hilton. Including the two hotels attached to the Center,
there are a total of eight hotels with 2,241 rooms in the immediate vicinity of the Center.
In 2012, these eight hotels reported an aggregate occupancy of 66.4 percent at an av-
erage room rate of $120.64. According to Smith Travel Research, these eight hotels re-
ported some 49 percent of their occupied rooms from the group segment in the five
months in late 2012 and early 2013 for which data were available. On an annualized
basis, this would equate to approximately 648 occupied group rooms for every 1,000
square feet of exhibit space in the Greater Columbus Convention Center.
The following is a Microsoft MapPoint map indicating the location of the Greater Colum-
bus Convention Center and a .3-mile radius around the Center. Also shown are symbols
and, in most cases, names for the hotels located within the .3-mile radius.
Indianapolis
The self-operated Indiana Convention Center is located in downtown Indianapolis adja-
cent to the Lucas Oil Stadium. (The Convention Center benefits from many events held
at, or also encompassing, the Lucas Oil Stadium.) A photograph of the Center is found
on the following page.
Section III: Comparable/Competitive Convention Centers &
Convention Center Hotels III-7
The Indiana Convention Center, without the facilities in the Lucas Oil Stadium, offers
some 750,000 square feet of total space as follows:
• 558,000 square feet of exhibit hall space
• 90 meeting rooms with approximately 140,000 square feet of space
• Grand ballroom of 33,300 square feet
• Junior ballroom of 13,500 square feet
The following are the floor plans for the Indiana Center:
Section III: Comparable/Competitive Convention Centers &
Convention Center Hotels III-8
According to the Indianapolis Convention & Visitors Association, they have some
750,000 definite room-nights booked for 2013 of which some 560,000 are directly tied to
the Convention Center. Another 84,000 room-nights are “tentative” for 2013, with
42,000 of those related to the Convention Center. The Center’s event attendance for
2011 was broken down as follows: 27 percent conventions; 4 percent consumer shows;
8 percent trade shows; 61 percent sporting events; and, 1 percent special events.
On the following page is a Microsoft MapPoint map indicating the location of the Indiana
Convention Center and a .3-mile radius around the Center. Also shown are symbols
and, in most cases, names for the hotels located within the .3-mile radius.
Section III: Comparable/Competitive Convention Centers &
Convention Center Hotels III-9
Louisville
The Kentucky International Convention Center is located in downtown Louisville. This
facility is not operated by a third party. A photograph of the Center is found below.
The Kentucky International Convention Center offers some 265,000 square feet of total
space as follows:
• 191,000 square feet of exhibit hall space
• 53 meeting rooms with approximately 44,000 square feet of space
• Grand ballroom of 30,000 square feet
The following are the plans for the primary facilities at the Kentucky Center:
Section III: Comparable/Competitive Convention Centers &
Convention Center Hotels III-10
Section III: Comparable/Competitive Convention Centers &
Convention Center Hotels III-11
According to the 2011 annual report of the Kentucky State Fair Board, which owns and
operates both the Convention Center and the nearby Kentucky Exposition Center, the
Convention Center reported a total attendance of 299,336 in 2011. The Fair Board does
not publish attendance breakdown information and the Center does not publish and
would not provide this data.
The Kentucky International Convention Center has one hotel, the 616-room Marriott Ho-
tel, directly connected to it. In 2012, this hotel experienced an occupancy in the range of
65 to 69 percent at an average room rate in the range of $155 to $165. There are a total
of 10 hotels with 3,454 rooms in the immediate vicinity of the Center. In 2012, these ho-
tels reported an aggregate occupancy of 67.0 percent at an average room rate of
$135.51. Due to the dominance of the Galt House Hotel in the market, Smith Travel Re-
search was unable to provide market-mix data for this set of hotels. However, based on
information gleaned from the major hotels in this competitive set, we estimate that some
48 percent of the set’s occupied rooms in 2012 came from the group segment. This
would equate to approximately 2,123 occupied group rooms for every 1,000 square feet
of exhibit space in the Kentucky Center.
The following is a Microsoft MapPoint map indicating the location of the Kentucky Inter-
national Convention Center and a .3-mile radius around the Center. Also shown are
symbols and, in most cases, names for the hotels located within the .3-mile radius.
Pittsburgh
The David L. Lawrence Convention Center is located in downtown Pittsburgh adjacent
to the Lucas Oil Stadium. This facility is operated by SMG. A photograph of the Center
is found on the following page.
Section III: Comparable/Competitive Convention Centers &
Convention Center Hotels III-12
The David L. Lawrence Convention Center offers some 600,000 square feet of usable
space as follows:
• 313,000 square feet of exhibit hall space (of which some 237,000 square feet
is “prime” space for practical use)
• 53 meeting rooms with approximately 78,000 square feet of space
• Grand ballroom of 31,600 square feet
The following are the floor plans for the David L. Lawrence Center:
Section III: Comparable/Competitive Convention Centers &
Convention Center Hotels III-13
Visit Pittsburgh reported that the David L. Lawrence Center had an attendance of
515,355 in 2011 from 175 events. The attendance was broken down as follows: 25 per-
cent conventions; 55 percent consumer shows; 2 percent trade shows; 5 percent spe-
cial events; 10 percent for sporting events; 2 percent for banquets; and 1 percent for
meetings. According to Visit Pittsburgh, they have tracked some 110,000 annual room-
nights related to the Center in recent years, although they believe the actual Center-
related demand level to be much higher in totality.
The David L. Lawrence Center has one hotel connected to it by walkways/bridges: the
616-room Westin Hotel. In 2012, this hotel experienced an occupancy in the range of 70
to 74 percent at an average room rate in the range of $139 to $149. Including the hotel
attached to the Center, there are a total of five hotels with 1,837 rooms in the immediate
vicinity of the Center. In 2012, these hotels reported an aggregate occupancy of 71.6
percent at an average room rate of $157.74. According to Smith Travel Research, these
five hotels attracted some 43 percent of their occupied rooms from the group segment
in 2012. This would equate to approximately 661 occupied group rooms for every 1,000
square feet of exhibit space in the David L. Lawrence Center.
A Microsoft MapPoint map indicating the location of the Center and a .3-mile radius
around the Center is presented on the following page. Also shown are symbols and, in
most cases, names for the hotels located within the .3-mile radius.
Section III: Comparable/Competitive Convention Centers &
Convention Center Hotels III-14
Summary
The following table summarizes some of the key metrics associated with the convention
centers deemed most competitive with, and comparable to, the new Cleveland
Conventon Center.
sets of “Convention Center area“ hotels, located within roughly 0.3 miles of each Center
in these cities, which are listed in the summary.
Hotel Rooms:
Attached to Center 1,358 1,165 1,694 616 616 1,090
Within .3 Miles of CC ("CC Area") 2,521 2,241 4,660 3,454 1,837 2,943
Rooms/1,000 SF of Exhibit Space:
Attached to Center 7.0 3.4 3.0 3.2 2.0 3.4
Within .3 Miles of CC ("CC Area") 12.9 6.6 8.4 18.1 5.9 9.2
• All of the cities have one or more hotels directly attached to their convention
centers, either abutting or by walkways/bridges.
Section III: Comparable/Competitive Convention Centers &
Convention Center Hotels III-16
• Convention center attendance per square foot of exhibit space ranged from
1.6 to 4.1, with the average being 2.9. (Applying this average to Cleveland’s
226,000 square feet of exhibit space would produce a total attendance of
some 655,000.)
• Three of the four convention centers reported between .65 and 1.1 room-
nights for every square foot of exhibit space with the fourth, Pittsburgh, ac-
knowledging that their actual room-night generation is higher. (The overall
average of .78 room-nights per exhibit square foot, if applied to Cleveland’s
226,000 square feet of exhibit space, would produce some 176,000 room-
nights of demand.)
• The five cities averaged 1,090 rooms attached to their convention centers
and 2,900 rooms within a 0.3-mile radius.
• Similarly, the five cities averaged 3.4 rooms attached to their centers for eve-
ry 1,000 square feet of exhibit space and 9.2 rooms within 0.3 miles for every
1,000 square feet.
• The hotels attached to the convention centers generally experienced slightly
lower occupancies and average room rates than the surrounding downtown
markets as a whole.
• The hotels within the 0.3-mile radii of the convention centers averaged 49
percent of their business from “groups”, ranging from a low of 40 percent to a
high of 58 percent.
• The hotels within the 0.3-mile radii of the centers average 1,238 “group”
room-nights for every 1,000 square feet of center exhibit space, ranging from
a low of 648 to a high of 2,123.
Further, the following table summarizes room count data for those hotels attached to the
convention centers in the five cities.
HOTELS ATTACHED
TO CONVENTON CENTERS
MAY 2013
Section IV: Lodging Market Analysis IV-1
This section of the report discusses the historical, current and prospective aspects of the
lodging market most relevant to the proposed convention center hotel in downtown
Cleveland, Ohio.
Marriott at Key Center 1 400 1991 Marriott at Key Center 400 1991
Hyatt Regency 2 293 2001 Hyatt Regency 293 2001
Renaissance 3 491 1918 Renaissance 491 1918
DoubleTree 4 379 1974 DoubleTree 379 1974
Hampton Inn 5 194 1998 Hampton Inn 194 1998
Radisson 6 142 1998 Total Rooms 1,757
Wyndham 7 205 1995
Ritz-Carlton 8 205 1990
Hilton Garden Inn 9 240 2002
Holiday Inn Express 10 141 1999
Residence Inn 11 175 2000
Comfort Inn 12 130 1995
University Inn & Suites 13 160 1996
Total Rooms 3,155
There are also several hotels at and around the world-renowned Cleveland Clinic, some
four miles east of downtown via Euclid Avenue. The primary hotel in this area is the 299-
room InterContinental Conference Center Hotel. This hotel, one of three InterContinental
hotels at or near the Clinic, is one of the highest quality hotels in the overall market and,
due to its popularity with the thousands of medical professionals and non-price-sensitive
patient and patient family visitors to the Clinic, it performs at occupancy levels somewhat
lower than those of the downtown hotels but at average room rates in excess of $200,
well above the average rates of the downtown hotels. The InterContinental hosts many
conferences, meetings and symposia related to the health-care field. (Note: It is expected
that the subject convention center hotel, with its location adjacent to the new Global
Center for Health Innovation, will attract some of the individual medical professional and
group meeting business currently patronizing the InterContinental.)
The map on the following page indicates the approximate locations of these hotels
utilizing the map key numbers in the preceding table. The location of the new convention
center is marked with the letter “C”. The site of the proposed hotel is marked with a red
dot and the three hotels not included in the above list, the new aloft hotel, the new Westin
Section IV: Lodging Market Analysis IV-2
(former Crowne Plaza Hotel) and the proposed Drury Hotel, are indicated by numbers 14
through 16, respectively. The 0.3-mile radius line from the new convention center site is
also indicated.
The following table provides information on the primary full-service hotels that are located
in the downtown area.
In 2012, the four hotels highlighted above are estimated to have experienced
occupancies ranging from 70 to 73 percent (excluding one hotel undergoing a room
renovation) at average room rates ranging from $100 to $150, with two hotels in the $140
to $150 range.
Section IV: Lodging Market Analysis IV-3
As has downtown Cleveland in general, the lodging market in downtown Cleveland has
experienced many changes in recent years. Some of these changes include:
• The closing of the 472-room Crowne Plaza in October 2011 for conversion to a
Westin Hotel;
• The effective closure of the 252-unit Embassy Suites Hotel in November 2012
for use by Ernst & Young as a training facility; and,
• The effective removal of the 205-room Ritz-Carlton Hotel from the transient
room supply beginning in May 2012 for primary use of Harrah’s Horseshoe
Casino to house its premium players.
Thus, in recent months, some 929 rooms were effectively removed from the downtown
transient supply, some 457 of which likely on a long-term basis. These closings were key
reasons why market occupancies and average room rates increased in 2012 and market
occupancy is projected to temporarily increase significantly in 2013.
The following table summarizes the supply, demand, occupancy, average room rate and
RevPAR (room revenue per available room per day) performance of all and a sub-set of
the hotels in the Cleveland downtown market from pre-recession 2007 through March
2013 according to data acquired from Smith Travel Research, the nation’s pre-eminent
source for hotel performance information.
Downtown:
2007 1,410,402 856,708 60.7% 118.15 71.77
2008 1,415,470 0.4% 812,812 -5.1% 57.4% 115.78 -2.0% 66.48 -7.4%
2009 1,415,470 0.0% 797,403 -1.9% 56.3% 111.09 -4.1% 62.58 -5.9%
2010 1,415,317 0.0% 818,197 2.6% 57.8% 109.37 -1.5% 63.23 1.0%
2011 1,400,535 -1.0% 833,166 1.8% 59.5% 108.80 -0.5% 64.72 2.4%
2012 1,230,583 -12.1% 842,335 1.1% 68.5% 115.00 5.7% 78.72 21.6%
3 Mos.:
2012 302,259 161,235 53.3% 110.94 59.18
2013 283,950 -6.1% 170,325 5.6% 60.0% 109.47 -1.3% 65.66 10.9%
Note: Supply decreases comprised of: Crowne Plaza closing in October 2011 for conversion to Westin;
Embassy Suites ceased reporting in December 2012 when fully utilized by Ernst & Young.
Source: Smith Travel Research.
Section IV: Lodging Market Analysis IV-4
The data in the preceding table indicates, among other things, the following:
• The downtown hotel supply decreased materially in 2012 and into 2013, as
discussed in the previous pages.
• Demand fell somewhat during the recent recession, but not as materially as in
other major cities, and began to rebound in 2010.
• Occupancy levels for both sets of hotels were lackluster until 2012 and into
2013.
• Average room rate levels fell materially during the recession and did not begin
to truly recover until 2012.
• RevPAR levels began to recover in 2010 and the recovery is continuing in
2013.
Additional insight into the characteristics of the downtown Cleveland market can be
gleaned from a review of its recent monthly and day-of-the-week performance levels, as
summarized in the following table. The highlighted figures in the table represent above-
average levels of performance.
The data in the table on the preceding page would indicate that the downtown Cleveland
market experiences stronger levels of demand in the spring, summer and fall months
more amenable to travel. The stronger performances in the spring and fall months are a
combination of peak periods for individual commercial (business) travel and group
business. Also, individual leisure demand is strong on the spring and fall weekends with
tourism and events at the areas colleges and universities. The strengths in the summer
months can be attributed primarily to stronger levels of individual leisure and group leisure
demand (SMERF, or social, military, educational, religious and fraternal group meeting
events).
The following table indicates the annual contributions of demand for the downtown hotels
from the “transient” (individual commercial and leisure travelers), “group” (business and
social meetings/conventions with blocks of 10 rooms or more) and “contract” (primarily
airline crews) market segments.
Finally, the data in the following table indicate that the total number of group-related
room-nights accommodated by the downtown hotels waned during the recession,
bounced back in 2011, fell off again in 2012 then appears to be recovering somewhat in
2013.
Section IV: Lodging Market Analysis IV-6
CC Area Downtown
Period RNs % Chg. RNs % Chg.
• The 150-room aloft Hotel is under construction on West 10th Street in the Flats
East Bank development and is scheduled to open in June 2013. While this
hotel will be a welcomed addition to the City’s hotel inventory, its size, style,
brand and market orientation will likely not generate significant amounts of
new hotel demand for the City.
• The former 472-room Crowne Plaza Hotel is being converted into a 484-room
Westin Hotel scheduled to open in April 2014. This hotel will again be a
participant in the group meeting market and will add a vibrant upper-upscale
brand to the City’s lodging mosaic. With some 26,000 square feet of meeting
and banquet space, the Westin should attract new group demand into the City
and offer a significant block of rooms to be marketed along with the
Convention Center.
Further, Drury Hotels has apparently won the bidding for the Cleveland Metropolitan
School District Building on East 6th Street across the Mall from the Marriott Hotel which
they have indicated they intend to convert to an upper-upscale full-service hotel of
between 170 and 180 rooms. For the purposes of the projections herein, we have
assumed that this hotel will be built with 180 rooms and open around January 1, 2016.
Due to its relatively small number of rooms, this hotel would likely not generate significant
amounts of new demand for the City, but would, again, provide some additional room
support for the nearby Convention Center.
Section IV: Lodging Market Analysis IV-7
Once these new hotels open, including a new convention “headquarters” hotel, it is hoped
that the downtown hotels could be convinced to commit reasonable room “blocks” to be
made available to assist Positively Cleveland and MMPI in selling larger groups and
conventions that require more than one hotel to satisfy their peak-night room
requirements. The stated threshold of both Positively Cleveland and MMPI is to be able to
offer a 2,000-room block, on peak, to groups, concentrated among as few hotels as
possible proximate to the Convention Center. The following table indicates possible room-
block commitments that one would hope could be achieved once the Convention Center
becomes accepted in the regional convention/association market and the resulting
“shortage” of committable rooms to be met by a new headquarters hotel.
Convention "Block"
Hotel Rooms % Rooms
Thus, this theoretical estimate would provide an aggregate room block some 500 rooms
short of the desired threshold to be hopefully filled by a convention center hotel of some
600 rooms.
As will be discussed in the following section of this report, we have assumed the subject
convention center hotel will enter the market with 600 rooms on July 1, 2017.
The estimates of room demand by segment were based on the historical trends in
segment demand through the first quarter of 2013, allowing for the recent recession,
Section IV: Lodging Market Analysis IV-8
tempered to reflect the probable impacts that the new downtown hotels, the Global
Center and the Convention Center will have on demand levels in the coming years.
The downtown hotel supply was projected to be as follows through 2022. (No additions to
supply were assumed from 2018 through 2021 and, concurrently, no material increases in
demand were projected over that same period. Should additional hotels come to fruition
during that period, appropriate upward adjustments to projected market demand would be
appropriate.)
Two types of increases to demand were projected in our analyses: increases in “base”
demand; and, “induced” increases in demand. “Base” demand is generated by sources
already in place in the downtown area. “Induced” demand, in this instance, is incremental
demand generated by new hotels entering the market through the efforts of their local
sales staffs and the regional and national sales efforts of their brands.
Based on the pre- and post-recession trends in room-night demand as reported by Smith
Travel Research and the impact that the new Convention Center and Global Center are
expected to have on demand levels, the following percentage increases in “base”
demand were projected from each of the three segments:
• Group demand: Based on the strong early 2013 results and the imminent
opening of the Convention Center, “base” group demand was projected to
increase 5.0 percent in 2013, then at the same percentages as transient
demand except in 2017 (at 6.0 percent) when the Convention Center’s sales
efforts should begin to come to fruition with the substantial amount of new
hotel supply. Induced demand from the new hotels is projected for this
segment from 2014 through 2020 as is discussed in a following paragraph.
Section IV: Lodging Market Analysis IV-9
The overall growth in accommodated group demand from 2012 through 2022
is projected to be some 131,000 room-nights, much of which is attributable to
the new Convention Center and the new hotels in the market supporting the
Center. This level of additional demand is consistent with the expectations of
Positively Cleveland.
• Contract demand: With the significant jump in contract demand in early 2013,
demand from this segment was projected to increase 30.0 percent this year,
then at only modest rates, generally lower than the other segments, for the
remaining years. No “induced” demand was estimated for this segment.
Group “induced” demand was estimated almost entirely to result from the openings of the
Westin Hotel in 2014 and the subject convention center hotel in 2017. Both hotels, with at
least one and possibly two new lodging brands entering the market with some 1,100
modern guest rooms, should successfully attract new group business to the City, mostly
to be accommodated entirely by their own properties.
Based on our experience with similar hotel openings, we estimated that a total of some
61,500 new group room-nights will be attracted to these two hotels over their first several
years of operation. (This volume of room-nights would equate to less than 16 points of
occupancy for the two hotels combined, but would be a material boost to a group market
that totaled some 262,000 room-nights in 2012, including weddings, reunions and other
events not necessarily booked by/involving Positively Cleveland.)
The table on the following page summarizes these estimates of room demand for the
downtown hotels and, when combined with the supply projections previously discussed,
presents the resulting estimates of downtown hotel occupancy through 2022.
As indicated in the table, overall downtown occupancy is projected to peak in 2013 prior
to the assumed openings of several new hotels in the market. Thereafter, occupancies
are projected to decline to the 60 percent level before rebounding to the mid-60’s as the
new hotels become absorbed and their marketing efforts come to fruition.
As previously indicated, the market occupancies for 2012 and 2013 in the table are
temporarily inflated due to the closures/conversions of hotels in the market that diluted the
available supply for parts of these two years on onward (with respect to the Embassy
Suites hotel). Once these anomalous supply factors no longer apply, the defined market
is expected to experience increases in supply that will temporarily dilute the market. The
positive marketing impacts of these hotels, plus the new Convention Center, however, will
combine to return the overall market occupancy to close to its 2012 level by the end of the
projection period. (Further, the expected comparatively high average room rate of the
subject hotel should enable other hotels in the defined market to “slipstream” their rates
somewhat, thus resulting in higher overall average room rates in the market.)
Section IV: Lodging Market Analysis IV-10
In terms of market mix, the downtown market is projected to stabilize at some 56 percent
transient (versus 62 percent in 2012), 36 percent group (versus 31 percent in 2012) and 8
percent contract (versus 7 percent in 2012).
PROJECTED DEMAND:
Transient
Demonstrated 521,490 526,705 537,239 542,611 553,464 575,602 592,870 604,728 610,775 616,883 623,051
Induced/(Unsatisfied) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 521,500 526,700 537,200 542,600 553,500 575,600 592,900 604,700 610,800 616,900 623,100
Growth Over Prior Year N/A 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Group
Demonstrated 261,639 274,721 280,215 283,018 288,678 305,999 315,179 321,482 324,697 327,944 331,223
Induced/(Unsatisfied) 0 0 11,191 20,435 24,124 35,770 54,166 61,524 61,524 61,524 61,524
Total 261,600 274,700 291,400 303,500 312,800 341,800 369,300 383,000 386,200 389,500 392,700
Growth Over Prior Year N/A 5.0% 6.1% 4.2% 3.1% 9.3% 8.0% 3.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
Contract
Demonstrated 59,206 76,968 78,507 79,292 80,878 83,304 84,137 84,979 85,829 86,687 87,554
Induced/(Unsatisfied) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 59,200 77,000 78,500 79,300 80,900 83,300 84,100 85,000 85,800 86,700 87,600
Growth Over Prior Year N/A 30.1% 1.9% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%
Total Market Demand 842,300 878,400 907,100 925,400 947,200 1,000,700 1,046,300 1,072,700 1,082,800 1,093,100 1,103,400
Growth Over Prior Year 1.1% 4.3% 3.3% 2.0% 2.4% 5.6% 4.6% 2.5% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9%
MARKET OCCUPANCY 68.4% 74.3% 67.7% 66.9% 65.2% 64.2% 62.7% 64.3% 64.8% 65.5% 66.2%
CONCLUSIONS
The downtown Cleveland lodging market has undergone numerous changes in the recent
past and suffered, along with the rest of the nation, through the recent severe recession.
With imminent enhancements to the quality level of the hotel supply, particularly in the
vicinity of the new Global Center and Convention Center, it is anticipated that the
downtown lodging market will absorb the new rooms and quickly return to levels of
acceptable and supportable room demand and occupancy.
SECTION V: HOTEL SITE &
RECOMMENDATIONS
MAY 2013
Section V: Hotel Site & Recommendations V-1
Based on the preceding market analyses of comparable convention center hotels in the
region and the downtown Cleveland lodging market, we have prepared recommendations
for the subject hotel (“the Hotel”).
First, we briefly describe the environs in which the Hotel would be developed then our
recommendations as to facilities’ scope, branding and management for the Hotel.
The following GoogleEarth photograph indicates the relative location of the site.
The Hotel will hopefully be physically connected to the new Convention Center and/or to
the Global Center for Health Innovation. These two facilities, which were discussed earlier
in the report, will constitute major demand generators for the subject hotel.
The immediate area around the site is dominated by office buildings, other hotels, retail
space, including restaurants, parking garages and sports, music and entertainment
Section V: Hotel Site & Recommendations V-2
FACILITY RECOMMENDATIONS
An important element of this study is the recommendation of a facilities’ scope for the
proposed convention center hotel.
The most important facilities’ component to the marketability and financial successes of
the Hotel is its number of guest rooms (and suites). If too many rooms are built for the
market, the Hotel will suffer financially and the market will be excessively diluted. If too
few rooms are built, potential profits are unrealized.
Our interviews with various civic and business leaders, representatives of Positively
Cleveland and MMPI (the operators of the Convention Center and the Global Center) and
downtown hoteliers and our review of prior studies prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers
relating to this project produced a range of sizing opinions and assumptions ranging from
a low of 400 rooms to a high of 850 rooms.
• The physical proximity of the Hotel to the Convention Center and its proximity
to the Global Center will make the Hotel the obvious choice for first
consideration by any users/patrons of the Convention Center for the
thousands of visitors expected at the Global Center.
• Experienced developers and national lodging chains in other cities in the
region with “comparable” convention centers elected to build adjoining hotels
averaging some 605 rooms in size, or 572 rooms excluding one large under-
performing independent hotel.
• The comparable convention centers averaged some 3.4 “attached” hotel
rooms for every 1,000 square feet of exhibit space in the adjoining center.
With 226,000 square feet of exhibit space in the Cleveland Convention Center,
this metric would support some 768 rooms.
• The comparable convention centers averaged some 9 hotel rooms within a
0.3-mile radius for every 1,000 square feet of exhibit space in the nearby
center, albeit with a wide range of results. With 226,000 square feet of exhibit
space in the Cleveland Convention Center, this metric would indicate support
Section V: Hotel Site & Recommendations V-3
for 2,034 rooms. With some 2,413 rooms expected within this radius in
downtown Cleveland with the new Westin and Drury Hotels, this metric would
indicate an oversupply of some 379 rooms before the subject hotel is
considered.
• The room-block analysis in the Lodging Market Analysis section of this report
indicated that, to routinely provide the desired/targeted 2,000 rooms on-peak
groups, the subject hotel should range in size from 600 to 650 rooms,
assuming it would commit 80 percent of its rooms on average to groups.
• With several other new hotels entering the overall downtown market and the
historically lackluster performance track record of the downtown lodging supply
(albeit without a true convention center and a less-rejuvenated downtown),
there is some risk that the market could be overbuilt if the subject hotel is too
large and/or the Convention Center and Global Center do not deliver
significant numbers of room-nights.
Based on all of the proceeding, we believe the optimal number of rooms (and suites) for
the proposed convention center “headquarters” hotel to be 600. As many as 700 rooms
could be viable and as few as 500, but between 600 and 650 rooms would appear to
provide the best opportunity to achieve efficient levels of occupancy at the most
reasonable and supportable average room rates without significant risks of overbuilding
the asset and over-diluting the market. For the remainder of this report, and the
projections herein, we have selected and assume a total room count, including suites, of
600 for the subject property.
Assuming a total of 600 “keys” and based on the facilities available in the other downtown
hotels and the Convention Center, we would recommend the following facilities and
services for the Hotel. (Obviously, design considerations, site constraints and/or brand
standards would eventually refine/dictate the facilities’ program.)
Such a hotel should be able to effectively perform as a “headquarters” hotel and work with
the other hotels in the area to handle larger groups that require more than this hotel to
accommodate their needs.
MANAGEMENT
We have assumed that professional third-party management, either independent or
franchisor-related, would market and operate the Hotel. It was further assumed that
management of the Hotel would work closely and joint-market with the Convention Center
and, to the extent applicable, the Global Center for Health Innovation. Again, the
projections herein are based on this assumption.
TIMING
We assume herein that the Hotel would open on July 1, 2017. The County is reportedly
moving out of the existing building in early to mid-2014. The building must then be
demolished and construction of the Hotel should require approximately 2.5 years. If
planning can be completed prior to the completion of demolition, the assumed timeframe
to opening could be accelerated.
SECTION VI: ESTIMATED PERFORMANCE –
THE PROPOSED HOTEL
MAY 2013
Section VI - Estimated Performance – The Proposed Hotel VI-1
This section of the report presents our estimates of the performance of the subject
convention center hotel (“the Hotel”): occupancy, average room rate and net operating
income after reserve. Our projections assume that the Hotel will be fully open for operation
by July 1, 2017, although it possibly could open sooner.
In estimating market penetrations for the Hotel, we gave strong overall consideration to the
following general non-segment-specific characteristics of the proposed property:
• Its age, being one of only seven hotels in downtown Cleveland built since 2000.
Generally, newer hotels have a competitive advantage over similar older
properties.
• Its status as the only hotel connected to the new Convention Center and one of
only two hotels adjacent to the new Global Center (the other being the
Marriott).
With the above in mind and having the actual penetration experiences of each of the
hotels in the downtown hotel market to utilize as benchmarks, we estimate that the Hotel
will be able to achieve the following penetrations of each of the three market segments
based on the factors indicated:
• Transient Demand: We estimate that the Hotel will initially penetrate this
market segment at 95 percent of its proportionate share due to its assumed
brand, location and amenities. The Hotel’s penetration of this segment is then
projected to increase to 98 percent in year two then stabilize at 100 percent in
year three. Positive factors considered in penetrating this segment were the
Hotel’s proximity to the Global Center, the Convention Center and the
downtown office buildings, including the Key Center, for individual commercial
demand and to the Convention Center and the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and
First Energy Stadium for individual leisure demand. Somewhat impeding its
penetration of this segment is the Hotel’s focus on group demand, which could
result in displaced commercial business during the mid-week periods.
• Group Demand: We estimate that the Hotel will initially penetrate this market
segment at 120 percent of its proportionate share due to its assumed brand,
location attached to the Convention Center and assumed extensive array of
meeting and banquet facilities to complement and augment those in the Global
Section VI - Estimated Performance – The Proposed Hotel VI-2
Center and the Convention Center. The Hotel’s penetration of this segment is
then projected to increase to 125 percent in year two, then stabilize at 130
percent in year three. (The projected group capture by the subject hotel of
between 60,000 and 67,000 room-nights per year appears reasonable in light
of Positively Cleveland’s group room-night of over 130,000 room-nights.)
• Contract Demand: We estimate that the Hotel will bid for only a small amount
of this business to help bolster occupancy levels during soft group business
periods. Thus, we project that the Hotel will penetrate this market segment at
25 percent of its proportionate share in all years of the projections.
The table below summarizes the estimates of occupancy for the Hotel resulting from the
application of these penetration percentages to the overall demand levels previously
discussed and presented.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
ROOM-NIGHTS CAPTURED:
Transient 38,700 76,300 79,400 80,200 81,000 81,800
Group 29,100 60,600 65,400 65,900 66,500 67,000
Contract 1,500 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,900
TOTAL CAPTURED DEMAND 69,300 139,700 147,600 148,900 150,300 151,700
MARKET MIX:
Transient 56% 55% 54% 54% 54% 54%
Group 42% 43% 44% 44% 44% 44%
Contract 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
As the data in the table indicates, we estimate estimates of occupancy for the Hotel to be
approximately 63 percent in calendar 2017, 64 percent in 2018, 67 percent in 2019, 68
percent in 2020 and 69 percent in 2021 and 2022. The Hotel’s market stabilized market
mix is projected to be approximately 54 percent transient, 44 percent group and 2 percent
contract.
Average room rates for the subject property were estimated by market segment by year in
2012 dollars based on the 2012 annual rate levels of the most comparable hotels in the
Section VI - Estimated Performance – The Proposed Hotel VI-3
competitive set and the expectation that rates throughout the area will continue to post
above-average increases as rate “lost” during the recession is recouped.
As a backdrop and an indication of the “real” increases in average room rate expected in
the area over the coming years, we present below the forecasts by PKF Hospitality
Research of changes in average room rate for the “upper tier” hotels in the Cleveland
Metropolitan Statistical Area over the next several years. As indicated by the data in the
table, the hotels in the MSA are expected to outperform inflation in terms of room rate
growth in the coming years. This trend is expected to apply to the hotels in the competitive
set as well.
Based on the 2010 recession-affected and 2011 and 2012 recovering segment room rates
of the competing hotels in the market, we estimated the average room rates per segment
for the Hotel to be as follows, expressed in 2012 dollars as if the Hotel was open in 2012,
rounded to the nearest $.25: Transient - $150.00; Group - $130.00; and, Contract -
$80.00. Based on the projected demand contributions by segment in a stabilized year,
these segment rates result in an overall average rate of $140.00 in 2012 dollars, again if
the Hotel was open in 2012 at 2012 rates. (Note: This average room rate is some 5 to 10
percent lower than that of the Marriott in 2012, with the Marriott hosting less lower-rated
group business than is projected for the subject hotel.)
After consideration of the “real” increases anticipated in area rates through 2017 as the
recovery from the recent recession gains momentum, the weighted adjusted overall
average room rate for the Hotel in a stabilized year would be approximately $148.50 in
2012 dollars.
The table on the following page summarizes our estimates of adjusted average room rate
for the Hotel, expressed in both 2012 and inflated dollars (at a rate of 3.0 percent per year)
and rounded to the nearest $0.25, for its first five calendar years of operation.
Section VI - Estimated Performance – The Proposed Hotel VI-4
The preceding estimates of occupancy and average room rate represented calendar years
of operation. As the Hotel is not assumed to open until July 1, 2017, we adjusted these
estimates to reflect full fiscal years of operation beginning on July 1 and ending on June
30. The following table summarizes these fiscal-year estimates.
The Uniform System of Accounts for Hotels, recommended by the American Hotel &
Lodging Association and in general use throughout the industry, has been used in the
classification of the various items of income and expenses. In conformity with this system
of classification, direct expenses, or departmental expenses, are charged to the
appropriate revenue-producing departments of the hotel. General overhead items, which
are applicable to the operations of the hotel as a whole, are classified as undistributed
expenses and include administrative and general expenses, marketing, franchise fees,
property operations and maintenance, and utility costs. Fixed expenses are those
necessary to maintain the property's availability to potential guests and include property
taxes, insurance and management fees.
In preparing our estimates of net operating income for the proposed hotel, we used the
following actual operating results as benchmarks: five full-service hotels located in/around
Cleveland; and, five convention-oriented hotels located in the cities identified herein as
“comparable”. For confidentiality reasons, these hotels are not specifically identified in the
analyses to follow.
Section VI - Estimated Performance – The Proposed Hotel VI-5
Inflation
While we are unable to provide a definitive estimate of future inflation trends, inflation will
affect the ongoing performance of a hotel operation. In general, hotels tend to adapt more
quickly and easily to inflation than other investment properties, since room rates can
usually be adjusted in response to changes in costs. To more accurately assess the
potential operating performance of the subject hotel, we have projected operating income
and expenses in inflated dollars. Economists differ in their estimates of inflationary
pressure in the foreseeable future. To portray price-level changes, we have assumed a 3.0
percent annual inflation rate over the projection period. This rate reflects the current long-
term outlook for the future movement of prices.
Except where otherwise noted, estimated dollar amounts for the subject hotel are
expressed in 2012-value dollars to enable same-year dollar comparisons with the 2012
results of the comparable hotels, while the actual results are expressed in amounts
consistent with the year indicated.
These estimates were then adjusted for the effects of inflation, and fixed and variable
relationships within certain expense items, for our multi-year projection. Revenue items,
which tend to vary with occupancy, have been generally projected on a per-occupied-room
basis, while undistributed and fixed expenses, which tend to be more fixed in nature, have
been generally projected on a per-available-room basis.
Income
Rooms Revenue. The projected room revenues, summarized in the table on the following
page, were based on the occupancy and average room rate levels discussed previously.
Food and Beverage Revenue. Food and beverage revenues were projected on a meal
period-by-meal period basis by outlet to be generated by the restaurant, lounge and
meeting/banquet space in the Hotel, as well as room service. We projected Hotel guest
food sales at $34.00 per occupied room and banquet and outside restaurant food sales at
$4,200,000. Beverage sales were estimated at 31 percent of total food sales. Public room
rentals and service charges were projected at 10 percent of banquet food and beverage
sales.
Section VI - Estimated Performance – The Proposed Hotel VI-6
Other Operated Departments Revenue. Income in this category is derived from garage
parking by guests, in-room movies, guest laundry services, vending machine operations,
pantry sales and guest telephone/internet revenues. Total income from these sources was
estimated at $13.70 per occupied room for these items, consisting of the following: 20
percent of the occupied rooms making telephone calls/utilizing the internet at $15.00; 10
percent of the occupied rooms renting a movie at $12.00; 30 percent of the occupied
rooms either self- or valet parking a vehicle at an average of $25.00 (with 25 percent of the
parking fee remitted by the garage operator to the Hotel); 50 percent of the occupied
rooms buying sundries from the pantry at $2.00; and, 10 percent of the guests utilizing the
laundry and valet service at $10.00.
Other Operated Departments Revenue
Per Occupied Room
Cleveland Hotels
Hotel A $7.91
Hotel B 11.65
Hotel C 7.34
Hotel D 0.68
Hotel E 2.22
Weighted Average 5.87
Comparable Hotels
Hotel F $8.24
Hotel G 0.73
Hotel H 7.39
Hotel I 8.04
Hotel J 1.11
Weighted Average 5.37
Subject Stabilized Year $13.70
Rentals and Other Income. Income in this category is derived from “no-show” or
cancellation fees, cash discounts earned and all miscellaneous sources of income and
was estimated to total $0.50 per occupied room, and is expected to vary with inflation.
Section VI - Estimated Performance – The Proposed Hotel VI-7
Expenses
Departmental Expenses
Rooms Expense. Rooms departmental expenses, which include wages and salaries for
the front desk and housekeeping staffs, employee benefits, in-house laundry costs,
cleaning supplies’ expenses, uniform costs and guest room supplies’ and amenities’
expenses, have been estimated at 27.3 percent of room revenue or $40.50 per occupied
room in the stabilized year. A payroll staffing schedule was prepared to assist in estimating
the expenses for this department.
Rooms Expense
Per Occupied Room % of Rm. Rev.
Cleveland Hotels
Hotel A $39.49 26.4%
Hotel B 55.05 27.4%
Hotel C 28.85 29.4%
Hotel D 35.09 29.7%
Hotel E 29.90 28.3%
Weighted Average 29.90 28.3%
Comparable Hotels
Hotel F $33.60 26.9%
Hotel G 34.33 28.8%
Hotel H 31.48 20.2%
Hotel I 32.47 24.8%
Hotel J 36.87 28.4%
Weighted Average 33.74 25.7%
Subject Stabilized Year $41.50 28.0%
Food and Beverage Department Expenses. Expenses associated with the food and
beverage department include the costs of goods sold, payroll and related expenses and
the costs of uniforms, kitchen, dining room and lounge supplies and other miscellaneous
costs. These expenses were estimated at 70 percent of food and beverage revenues in a
stabilized year of operation.
Section VI - Estimated Performance – The Proposed Hotel VI-8
Other Operated Departments Expenses. Expenses associated with the individual revenue
sources in the other operated departments were estimated to aggregate to 102 percent of
other operated department revenues in all years of the projections. Expense percentages
for each component of this department were projected to be as follows: telephone/internet
expenses at 200 percent; and, in-room movie, sundries shop and laundry and valet
expenses all at 75 percent. (All garage expenses would be covered by the garage
operator.)
Other Operated Departments Expense
% of OOD Rev.
Cleveland Hotels
Hotel A 120.7%
Hotel B 88.6%
Hotel C 25.8%
Hotel D 165.0%
Hotel E 124.7%
Weighted Average 85.9%
Comparable Hotels
Hotel F 97.1%
Hotel G 226.7%
Hotel H 62.9%
Hotel I 105.5%
Hotel J 189.9%
Weighted Average 98.4%
Subject Stabilized Year 102.0%
stabilized year, and are expected to vary with inflation. A payroll staffing schedule was
prepared to assist in estimating the expenses for this department.
Administrative and General
Per Available Room % of Total Rev.
Cleveland Hotels
Hotel A $5,087 8.8%
Hotel B 9,341 10.8%
Hotel C 2,455 7.3%
Hotel D 5,873 13.6%
Hotel E 4,301 10.0%
Weighted Average 5,210 10.0%
Comparable Hotels
Hotel F $4,294 7.8%
Hotel G 4,178 10.3%
Hotel H 4,958 8.4%
Hotel I 4,078 8.3%
Hotel J 5,421 10.1%
Weighted Average 4,546 8.8%
Subject Stabilized Year $5,245 8.4%
Marketing
Per Available Room % of Total Rev.
Cleveland Hotels
Hotel A $4,660 8.0%
Hotel B 4,077 4.7%
Hotel C 3,720 11.0%
Hotel D 3,709 8.6%
Hotel E 3,873 9.0%
Weighted Average 4,027 7.7%
Comparable Hotels
Hotel F $4,096 7.4%
Hotel G 3,550 8.7%
Hotel H 6,883 11.7%
Hotel I 5,954 12.1%
Hotel J 3,867 7.2%
Weighted Average 4,828 9.4%
Subject Stabilized Year $4,889 7.8%
payroll staffing schedule was prepared to assist in estimating the expenses for this
department.
Property Operation and Maintenance
Per Available Room % of Total Rev.
Cleveland Hotels
Hotel A $3,284 5.7%
Hotel B 5,524 6.4%
Hotel C 1,452 4.3%
Hotel D 1,954 4.5%
Hotel E 2,571 6.0%
Weighted Average 2,894 5.6%
Comparable Hotels
Hotel F $2,003 3.6%
Hotel G 1,862 4.6%
Hotel H 2,474 4.2%
Hotel I 2,098 4.3%
Hotel J 2,559 4.8%
Weighted Average 2,180 4.2%
Subject Stabilized Year $2,574 4.1%
Utilities. Utility costs have been estimated at $2,763 per available room, or 4.4 percent of
total revenue, in the stabilized year, and are expected to vary with inflation.
Utility Costs
Per Available Room % of Total Rev.
Cleveland Hotels
Hotel A $2,649 4.6%
Hotel B 4,242 4.9%
Hotel C 1,989 5.9%
Hotel D 2,005 4.6%
Hotel E 1,558 3.6%
Weighted Average 2,438 4.7%
Comparable Hotels
Hotel F $1,769 3.2%
Hotel G 1,536 3.8%
Hotel H 1,930 3.3%
Hotel I 2,028 4.1%
Hotel J 2,839 5.3%
Weighted Average 2,009 3.9%
Subject Stabilized Year $2,763 4.4%
Property Taxes. We based our estimates of property taxes, at $2,500 per room per year,
on the amounts reported by the most comparable hotels in Cleveland and comparable
hotels in other cities.
Section VI - Estimated Performance – The Proposed Hotel VI-12
Property Taxes
Per Available Room % of Total Rev.
Cleveland Hotels
Hotel A $2,535 4.4%
Hotel B 0 0.0%
Hotel C 970 2.9%
Hotel D 0 0.0%
Hotel E 1,621 3.8%
Weighted Average 1,137 2.2%
Comparable Hotels
Hotel F $0 0.0%
Hotel G 0 0.0%
Hotel H 2,424 4.1%
Hotel I 2,516 5.1%
Hotel J 2,217 4.1%
Weighted Average 2,389 2.7%
Subject Stabilized Year $2,500 4.0%
Building and Contents Insurance. Building and contents insurance premiums were
estimated at $200 per available room, or approximately 0.3 percent of total revenue in the
stabilized year, and are expected to vary with inflation.
Insurance
Per Available Room
Cleveland Hotels
Hotel A $142
Hotel B 0
Hotel C 205
Hotel D 367
Hotel E 246
Weighted Average 191
Comparable Hotels
Hotel F $349
Hotel G 404
Hotel H 256
Hotel I 316
Hotel J 397
Weighted Average 344
Subject Stabilized Year $200
Reserve for Replacement. In order to account for the necessary periodic replacement of
short-lived items, such as furnishings, fixtures and equipment necessary to the operation
of the Hotel, annual reserves were projected at 2.0 percent of total revenue in the first year
of operation, 3.0 percent in the second year and 4.0 percent per year thereafter.
The resultant projections of income and expense for the proposed convention center hotel
for its first five fiscal years of operation, 2017/18 through 2021/22, are presented on the
following page.
Section VI - Estimated Performance – The Proposed Hotel VI-13
Departmental Expenses
Rooms 7,109,000 29.3% 7,432,000 28.8% 7,782,000 28.3% 8,062,000 28.1% 8,334,000 28.0%
Food & Beverage 10,411,000 71.2% 10,822,000 70.8% 11,259,000 70.3% 11,640,000 70.2% 12,016,000 70.0%
Other Operated Departments 2,286,000 102.0% 2,429,000 102.0% 2,585,000 102.0% 2,695,000 102.0% 2,796,000 102.0%
Total Departmental Expenses 19,806,000 48.0% 20,683,000 47.5% 21,626,000 46.9% 22,397,000 46.7% 23,146,000 46.5%
Departmental Profit 21,432,000 52.0% 22,893,000 52.5% 24,510,000 53.1% 25,588,000 53.3% 26,582,000 53.5%
Undistributed Expenses
Administrative & General 3,596,000 8.7% 3,743,000 8.6% 3,899,000 8.5% 4,032,000 8.4% 4,164,000 8.4%
Marketing 3,240,000 7.9% 3,414,000 7.8% 3,604,000 7.8% 3,744,000 7.8% 3,878,000 7.8%
Property Operation and Maintenance 1,596,000 3.9% 1,732,000 4.0% 1,900,000 4.1% 1,955,000 4.1% 2,033,000 4.1%
Utility Costs 1,877,000 4.6% 1,960,000 4.5% 2,052,000 4.4% 2,121,000 4.4% 2,192,000 4.4%
Total Undistributed Operating Expenses 10,309,000 25.0% 10,849,000 24.9% 11,455,000 24.8% 11,852,000 24.7% 12,267,000 24.7%
Gross Operating Profit 11,123,000 27.0% 12,044,000 27.6% 13,055,000 28.3% 13,736,000 28.6% 14,315,000 28.8%
Base Management Fee 1,237,000 3.0% 1,307,000 3.0% 1,384,000 3.0% 1,440,000 3.0% 1,492,000 3.0%
Fixed Expenses
Property Taxes 1,765,000 4.3% 1,818,000 4.2% 1,877,000 4.1% 1,928,000 4.0% 1,986,000 4.0%
Insurance 141,000 0.3% 145,000 0.3% 150,000 0.3% 154,000 0.3% 159,000 0.3%
Total Fixed Expenses 1,906,000 4.6% 1,963,000 4.5% 2,027,000 4.4% 2,082,000 4.3% 2,145,000 4.3%
Net Operating Income 7,980,000 19.4% 8,774,000 20.1% 9,644,000 20.9% 10,214,000 21.3% 10,678,000 21.5%
FF&E Reserve 825,000 2.0% 1,307,000 3.0% 1,845,000 4.0% 1,919,000 4.0% 1,989,000 4.0%
Net Operating Income After Reserve $7,155,000 17.4% $7,467,000 17.1% $7,799,000 16.9% $8,295,000 17.3% $8,689,000 17.5%