12.

1 Chi-Square Tests for Univariate Categorical Data (Goodness-of-Fit Tests)

In chapters 9, 10 and 11, we have been doing inference for categorical (count) data, but only for variables with 2
categories (success, failure). In this section we will be considering univariate categorical variables with 2 or
more categories, such as “ethnic group” or “college major.”

At one time, the intended distribution of colors in a bag of regular M&M’s was:
10% blue, 10% brown, 10% green, 10% orange, 20% red, 20% yellow, and 20% purple

Suppose that we opened a random sample of bags and observed the counts below. Does the data indicate that
the stated distribution has changed?

Because sample size is an important consideration, we consider the expected counts in each category instead of
the proportions. For example, if 10% of the M&M’s are supposed to be blue and we have a total of 250
M&M’s, then we would expect 25 to be blue.

At first glance, it appears that the distribution of M&M colors has changed since the observed counts are
different than the expected counts. However, it is possible that the distribution hasn’t changed and that the
differences we see are due to sampling variability.

How likely is it to get differences like these due to sampling variability? We first need a way to measure how
different the observed counts are from the expected counts.

The final result is a test statistic called chi-square or goodness-of-fit statistic:

( observed count-expected count )
2

X =�
2

expected count

For the M&M example, X 2 = _________

X 2 is a measure of the relative differences between the observed and expected counts. Therefore, as X 2 gets
bigger, we have more evidence that the observed distribution differs from the expected (hypothesized)
distribution.
To find the P-value without a simulation, we need
to know more about the distribution of X 2 .
Like the t-distributions, these distributions, called
the c 2 distributions, are continuous and
determined by the degrees of freedom.

Note: The mean of a c 2 distribution is equal to the

degrees of freedom and the peak is at df – 2.

For c 2 Goodness of Fit tests, the degrees of

freedom = # of categories – 1.

The 5 step Procedure for c 2 Goodness of Fit tests

1. At first glance, it appears that the distribution of M&M colors has changed since the observed counts are
different than the expected counts. However, it is possible that the distribution hasn’t changed and that the
differences we see are due to sampling variability. To decide I will use a c 2 Goodness of Fit test ( a =.05).

2. H 0 : The distribution of M&M colors hasn’t changed

H a : The distribution has changed

3. Conditions:
a. Random sample of M&M’s? Must assume the bags represent a random sample of M&M’s.
b. Large sample size? Check: all expected cell counts are all ≥ 5. Refer to table of expected counts.
Note: If this condition is not met, you should combine categories until all are ≥ 5. For example
you could combine the categories blue, brown, green, and orange into one category called
“other.”
c. Sample < 10% of population? Yes, assuming > 2500 M&M’s.

( 28 - 25)
2

4. X 2
= +L =
25
df =

P-value =

5. Since P-value > a , we fail to reject the null hypothesis and cannot conclude that the distribution of colors
has changed.
Does your zodiac sign determine how successful you will be in later life? Fortune Magazine collected data on
the zodiac signs of 256 heads of the largest 400 companies. Test this hypothesis, based on the results by
Fortune:

HW #90 12.1, 12.9, 12.10, 12.13