Independent/Dependent Events

Two events are independent if the result of the second event is not affected by the result of the first
event. If A and B are independent events, the probability of both events occurring is the product of the
probabilities of the individual events.

P(A and B)=P(A)⋅P(B)

Example 1:

A box contains 4 red marbles, 3 green marbles and 2 blue marbles. One marble is removed from the box
and then replaced. Another marble is drawn from the box. What is the probability that the first marble
is blue and the second marble is green?

Because the first marble is replaced, the size of the sample space ( 9 ) does not change from the first
drawing to the second so the events are independent.

P(blue then green)=P(blue)⋅P(green)                                          =29⋅39                                           

=681                                           =227

Two events are dependent if the result of the first event affects the outcome of the second event so that
the probability is changed. In the above example, if the first marble is not replaced, the sample space
for the second event changes and so the events are dependent. The probability of both events
occurring is the product of the probabilities of the individual events:

P(A and B)=P(A)⋅P(B)

Example 2:
A box contains 4 red marbles, 3 green marbles and 2 blue marbles. One marble is removed from the box
and it is not replaced. Another marble is drawn from the box. What is the probability that the first
marble is blue and the second marble is green?

Because the first marble is not replaced, the size of the sample space for the first marble ( 9 ) is changed
for the second marble ( 8 ) so the events are dependent.

P(blue then green)=P(blue)⋅P(green)                                          =29⋅38                                           

=672                                           =112

ependent Events and Independent Events

Contents:

What is a Dependent Event?

What is an Independent Event?

How to tell if an event is Dependent or Independent?

What is a Dependent Event?

When two events are dependent events, one event influences the probability of another event. A
dependent event is an event that relies on another event to happen first. Dependent events in
probability are no different from dependent events in real life: If you want to attend a concert, it might
depend on whether you get overtime at work; if you want to visit family out of the country next month,
it depends on whether or not you can get a passport in time. More formally, we say that when two
events are dependent, the occurrence of one event influences the probability of another event.

Simple examples of dependent events:

Robbing a bank and going to jail.

Not paying your power bill on time and having your power cut off.

Boarding a plane first and finding a good seat.

Parking illegally and getting a parking ticket. Parking illegally increases your odds of getting a ticket.

Buying ten lottery tickets and winning the lottery. The more tickets you buy, the greater your odds of
winning.

Driving a car and getting in a traffic accident.

What is an Independent Event?

An independent event is an event that has no connection to another event’s chances of happening (or
not happening). In other words, the event has no effect on the probability of another event occurring.
Independent events in probability are no different from independent events in real life. Where you work
has no effect on what color car you drive. Buying a lottery ticket has no effect on having a child with blue
eyes.

When two events are independent, one event does not influence the probability of another event.

Simple examples of independent events:

Owning a dog and growing your own herb garden.

Paying off your mortgage early and owning a Chevy Cavalier.

Winning the lottery and running out of milk.

Buying a lottery ticket and finding a penny on the floor (your odds of finding a penny does not depend
on you buying a lottery ticket).

Taking a cab home and finding your favorite movie on cable.

Getting a parking ticket and playing craps at the casino.

Dependent or Independent?

Card example

What is a Dependent Event in Statistics?

The probability of picking this particular jack is 1/3.

Cards are often used in probability as a tool to explain how one seemingly independent event can
influence another. For example, if you choose a card from a deck of 52 cards, your probability of getting
a Jack is 4 out of 52. Mathematically, you can write it like this:

P(Jack) = number of Jacks in a deck of cards / total number of cards in a deck = 4/52 = 1/13 ≈ 7.69%.

If you replace the jack and choose again (assuming the cards are shuffled), the events are independent.
Your probability remains the same (1/13). Choosing a card over and over again would be an
independent event, because each time you choose a card (a “trial” in probability) it’s a separate, non-
connected event.

But what if the card was kept out of the pack the next time you choose? Let’s say you pulled the three of
hearts, but you’re still searching for that jack. The second time you pull out a card, the deck is now 51
cards, so:

P(Jack) = number of Jacks in a deck of cards / total number of cards in a deck = 4/51 = 1/13 ≈ 7.84%

The probability has increased from 7.69% (with replacement of the jack) to 7.84% (the jack isn’t
replaced), so choosing cards in this manner is an example of a dependent event.

ependent Events and Independent Events

Contents:

What is a Dependent Event?

What is an Independent Event?

How to tell if an event is Dependent or Independent?

What is a Dependent Event?

When two events are dependent events, one event influences the probability of another event. A
dependent event is an event that relies on another event to happen first. Dependent events in
probability are no different from dependent events in real life: If you want to attend a concert, it might
depend on whether you get overtime at work; if you want to visit family out of the country next month,
it depends on whether or not you can get a passport in time. More formally, we say that when two
events are dependent, the occurrence of one event influences the probability of another event.
Simple examples of dependent events:

Robbing a bank and going to jail.

Not paying your power bill on time and having your power cut off.

Boarding a plane first and finding a good seat.

Parking illegally and getting a parking ticket. Parking illegally increases your odds of getting a ticket.

Buying ten lottery tickets and winning the lottery. The more tickets you buy, the greater your odds of
winning.

Driving a car and getting in a traffic accident.

What is an Independent Event?

An independent event is an event that has no connection to another event’s chances of happening (or
not happening). In other words, the event has no effect on the probability of another event occurring.
Independent events in probability are no different from independent events in real life. Where you work
has no effect on what color car you drive. Buying a lottery ticket has no effect on having a child with blue
eyes.

When two events are independent, one event does not influence the probability of another event.

Simple examples of independent events:

Owning a dog and growing your own herb garden.

Paying off your mortgage early and owning a Chevy Cavalier.

Winning the lottery and running out of milk.

Buying a lottery ticket and finding a penny on the floor (your odds of finding a penny does not depend
on you buying a lottery ticket).

Taking a cab home and finding your favorite movie on cable.

Getting a parking ticket and playing craps at the casino.

Dependent or Independent?
Card example

What is a Dependent Event in Statistics?

The probability of picking this particular jack is 1/3.

Cards are often used in probability as a tool to explain how one seemingly independent event can
influence another. For example, if you choose a card from a deck of 52 cards, your probability of getting
a Jack is 4 out of 52. Mathematically, you can write it like this:

P(Jack) = number of Jacks in a deck of cards / total number of cards in a deck = 4/52 = 1/13 ≈ 7.69%.

If you replace the jack and choose again (assuming the cards are shuffled), the events are independent.
Your probability remains the same (1/13). Choosing a card over and over again would be an
independent event, because each time you choose a card (a “trial” in probability) it’s a separate, non-
connected event.

But what if the card was kept out of the pack the next time you choose? Let’s say you pulled the three of
hearts, but you’re still searching for that jack. The second time you pull out a card, the deck is now 51
cards, so:

P(Jack) = number of Jacks in a deck of cards / total number of cards in a deck = 4/51 = 1/13 ≈ 7.84%

The probability has increased from 7.69% (with replacement of the jack) to 7.84% (the jack isn’t
replaced), so choosing cards in this manner is an example of a dependent event.

Life is full of random events!

You need to get a "feel" for them to be a smart and successful person.

The toss of a coin, throwing dice and lottery draws are all examples of random events.

There can be:

Dependent Events where what happens depends on what happened before, such as taking cards from a
deck makes less cards each time (learn more at Conditional Probability), or

Independent Events which we learn about here.

Independent Events

probability coin toss

Independent Events are not affected by previous events.

This is an important idea!

A coin does not "know" it came up heads before.

And each toss of a coin is a perfect isolated thing.