ouster 1 Chapter 1 prontcns 85 (a) 9» (08.0), (9,00, (0,4), (6,00). The sample apace containe four foutconany an outcome UtselT Is a 2-tuple where the frst com malt of dreving from urw ane and the second cosnene fron wn (2) The avant apace le the There are 16 Ani (0), GOD, (OOM, CoH), LR, (6,00), (10,00, (G8. ch subsets. 2, 1, U0, (own, Lee,aD), (9, GON, Wow, (0), 10, +d, GHD, (300, 0,0), 6.001, UD, (6,4, (6.09), (48,6), (Hd, (6.09) cus wo (a) There ae many ways to describe the outcomes of thle anperiaant. could number the balla tn urn ont as dy 25 3 Sy Smtens and 6 blue nd those In urn too a4 1 red, 2, 3 unites and 4 5, 6 blue (Then Oe Cds fy ete Ly fe the ouer on che ball droen from ven 1 and 1 {4 the ounber on the ball deaen from ven 2.) Note that there are 36 outcomes of this enperinents (AL) Lae A denate the vent both balls are re 1B denote the event both balls are white, © denote the both balls are bus Tren Plboth balis sane color] FLAUBUCY + PLA) + PLA) » Pe) © we any Pay ow «igen.S. ere Ly be the number fn the fret ball dravo and 1 14 the runber on the sacood balk dcann), Ae MGgde tee a dae aye My Way Gade ty en 2, a ant ty 0a, 2, 2d i lae of 8 On aa fe) a8 (yt e dsseed and ty 0a, 25 90 eae $ but ty #4). soiS but LL #1), ate. ‘ eM A da rye Using W far Abe, M for af +R foe right hant and L for Left band, the event that the parclelpant ts auccaseful Le (OLA, OID, OID ay aay, Unter aerateny LR, PLAT + pp, + pyp(1-8,) + P:R, and Moder atrategy WML, PLA = », yore) + Para De, 2)Paf 0) raw be Btn enren out of four) + 4 + apace) + ($)p%ta-p) + ot PLA WLLL beat B he Five out of . an) «pS» spp) + 1598-9)? + (Jeta-m + (2Jota-ny + 9? (4U8D 2 PEA» Ff) - a= 2 A An band ee rand « PCA) + Fla wap @) su aaa (a) rcotat of 91 = 25/216; F 1/2 be 8 counter-example + te satan « s/27 at of 10) + 27/216 (2) Pat teaat one 6 40 8 tonnes #1 = (5/0 Pag Least double & In 24 tosses) # 1 - (35/36) (2) Plat deaat one 6 wien 6 clea} = 1 = (708 Plat tease two 6 th 12 dee) #1 = (576)!2 ~ (aaycayen(ss6)"* 20, 2. curren t roblen 27. a Conaiser that a single coin ts sed until the Feat “PLE Lest head occurs on tons $} + (1/2), Place wins} * (V2) + G22) + Oy? + PoRones wins] = (1/2) + as2)8 « (usa) 6 Plea wins] = G72)" + Gay + (4/2) + Platngle cing forwed) » (4/5)(2/3), Plat Aeast one ring formed] # 1, Yow might cont your Intutticn on thls one and gvese the ansver before “ou Proceed. Let Ay = (Re. Bandit dora aor get caught union strateny UY wicre steategy 1 te co HL aLL Grenty at once; strateey 2 la to :ut four OF tom and one In the others and ateateny © 18 w put two stolen cattle In each ast of ten.SESE EOEEEEE ELLE SO oe oo » a a a a», Tale problen be nove as urn 1 (o) Taka BC and PAI > PC) for a counter-enanpie, ee the corollary of Thearen 2, Tile to lattar to Propien 70, eS OF se Bayes" Formate, = bf “Llars problens, We Bayon! Formule. 1e can be varled by changing he eimber of Alara. I fact, the reader ve Le for aly (0 or thren Liars before reaiing the solution. Ae ta the cate wlth wost FY" problems some “aodelLing” Le raquired. Let Ap + (atatenent chat A makes te teva, ant 0, (0 ys that A La tating the truth’: tought. Alga, dat fs that A Aa celbing the eruen), nat d+ (C anya thar that A is noe telting she truth) and latterly for B, and by. Actually sone Modeling" has bean done in defining jnta; for example, It hae been assume that B dons say thar A's state: ane In altner true on falta, Note that ae HEAD POagLAGD » PLey|BG) + wCDg Ley) « ete ByAgd = FOO, L6,4,) Ba MELD» PUag Lig) Hey ligD + Hg IED © PLC IBA © 100,18 ,9- aphtctedy, te ha pond that not only dows each Liar ile with probablaésy 2/2 Ao aay given Inatance, but also the Mare Lhe 1 dant oF enh others The ssletlen glean bare Inches fhe gelut lo forthe two and theee Liar probes. Hag) Haga 2PCAGD + PC LRG PCA ,D » (4/0079) «GNC » 57 PC, [Ay 0A) Hagia) « aa +175, the solution te the two Liar protien. rs Mow FLGq} # (4/3018/9) + (27300879) # 13/27 and weg lAg) © Plepay lA} + Ple,BglAD whey A 2AEHG TAG) + PCL) 2 578, nonce eagle « 229021 oT Shattariy, Pop) + elogle,JeCc,) + rL0, 18, C8) 8/23, the setution te the these Hae prot = Gam + amMauA + as, wd Peng) PCO, H hy) + PCDy LEA HED sania) + (27901078) «13/27, and el) (o) A and B dlajolne and PUA) # C8) gives & counter + (enactly $ avede out of tne C1fty germinate), eden by a owt Plpack. suming each eed germinates with probablilty 0. vlolate guarantes] « ; £ (*)ese%c.on84, 1 ought to be greater than 1/2. Lat A» (tested atone Je real) + (aon gets real dlanonded We want #C0]4) and eto|id. Symmetry auggeats that these two conditional probabLiltles are equal, Define C » (box with two rest diamonds Is ted for testing) and mocel oy suming FIC) + 1/2, eCAlC) « 2/3, and PLAlZ) © 1/3.” than La) » vCafedeicd + PUAl@ariG) » 279 - 1/2 #3 + 372 «aa, uaa « $UMD tanned ptanl2yr8) AMY 6 (ONO aya, statnerry ray « 202s eVE 4 2, ’ (ad EDM) «pt-pt «aw (ay) sphciep) 92-9)? «Goad ted pee Gee (teh flat In a corner, The random player must then mark In the center to deap yo fre wlan Went mark one of the two apices adjacent co your fleat Your opgennat's chance of forcing 4 tle under this stratery fe GMUAIOM2. He otner atategy dove snatag {0 191/382. How dows che problen chan Af you attow your opponent toon treet Apply bayer rormute, aan Ua) Osteonas are yetlov-nsooth (1-5), yellowwrtakied (1-H), green nd groen-wrinked (GW); they are equally Llhely. ve rel ra|es | cw to baba eto ay realay « Peale) + taney Poajeneced + FoalbneGs ” CasvGos) + Conca (8) see pe lg omen OF he arse tisparcasy Moller @ + Tm tm2. o unica 11 wal of these probieas require shoving that & ron function faa p.d.f. The slnply Lnvolves verifying the conditiens of Beflaition 9. A.) G0) aod £56) are catty shawn to P 12) Laetearly unity, one can show that (G2) 2 06 a + the Antes (©) You can dlaprove thie py Rang OF Dy 8) #2, Lyla) # Hyg yylnd ant £000 * tg gy 2, The median As «. de weed xf xtec + 2, wen elven X= fourth root of 2/2, 8. (4) Since ry(a) can be written aa # function of (100/85 edo de Mar tn, write Bind # £8), rere sf ocroney - f° rere f° cereney off o-ra ney [2 tone) oe HOD equate © plus « quantity that ok rene} 5 hance If a te snere by te 40 te FO) S. () xte fscrate randce varlatle taking on tues 0. Ly 2, and FEZ) a), POEL © 24/9270, and POW) » (a7, (ed E00 = 1/2 and var{x) + 978 nw ‘The ame ends at the flest telal Lf and only Lf A wins flest match the fat the second teal Lf and only LF 8 wine the First tee matchens the game ands at the thind telad if and only 1¢ 8 the Fest maton ane1 cueree 1 . | A vias the ° twos ate, ourrce tr ree nea dean, wo gde Tsaat sam Fam. 2, foe Bs Te prove hu Mink anne wb Oa imltard. write Gt]x-b|3 = ECfaeal) © fares foto sf esi spntefoed ++ fone a9 A Peete of cof” tential A sa). 2+ any fitvant? oa . of Geb)tCaddn + Gea) E600) # Fem) ~ FOO) = 1 « etHDd (0) Wine the pane Afsand cony f the game onde at an evan numbered teat raw Mae, det p= 4 hence wt it vanne van waft toniios the yy * Boobabinity thee a.) as las the gaee, "2s bye Im onder for B to un the gana, 8 aan : " HO) oy #0 and ay 9 4/2, hence te the frat match, having done 8 fe then to the sane position as A at 35. EO) #2 ant vactx) #72, . | | | | } Pug) 2 kode ae « aid We MAELO Oe ame, nee 2g + OVDegs By + GUD ant psicny teply (e) teu presien 20, ar fovea @ aud 9 are vary aiatlar, The density of La *erlangular vhereas 17, hos by Chabysner snequat Wat of fa "parabolic". oth dannlties are aymerric stout a. He Mes wd EPO cued 2 POM ede a ELOMYE © WO ty (6) CO + 0 and wart) « 82/6 thdgete?toogear (0 tare ge Cys etna BG) E659) 20 tor U2 ge 1/2. Write ny and of for the wean and variance of £1.50) lucludiog ¢ + 0 and 6 + 4s yey , fo) boo, ap teh aended + e020 00,19) is) my) + biegced, (wns (1) redeh the probien by assuning shat the bons fall Independently of one fwetiar, Then Lf at leant one of the three Lange boaba fells within 0 feet i of the track, traffle will be dlarupted, Answer te} ~ (6/2593, i (0) BODY + ECC4-499D 6 Geb) wntch Ls alatatzed wen b= ys (0) Re evnutt follow fron the Mot by noting that the Integral on the right and ide of the equality 18 gona tive for atl b as Baro forbs a,