Late Victorian Holocausts

E l Nino Famines and the Making

of the Third World
•
MIKE DAVIS

V
Verso
London * N e w York
 T h i s p a p e r b a c k c d i l i o i i first p u b l i s h e d b y V e r s o 20(12
Offended Lands
& Mike Davis 2002
First published b y Verso 2001
. . . It is so m u c h , so m a n y
© Mike Davis 2001
t o m b s , so m u c h m a r t y r d o m , so m u c h
All rights reserved
g a l l o p i n g o f b e a s t s i n t h e star!
T h e m o r a l rights o f t h e author have been asserted Nothing, not even victory

w i l l erase the terrible h o l l o w o f the blood:

3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2
n o t h i n g , n e i t h e r the sea, n o r the passage
Verso o f sand a n d time, n o r the g e r a n i u m f l a m i n g
U K : 6 M e a r d Street, L o n d o n W l l ' O I - G
u p o n the grave.
U S A : IKO Varick Street, N e w ^'ork, X ^ ' 10014-4606
WW w A ' e r s o b o o k s . c o m - P a b l o N e r u d a (1937)

V e r s o is t h e i m p r i n t o f N e w L e f t B o o k s

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 Contents

Acknowledgements ix

Preface 1
A Note on Definitions 17

P A R T I T h e Great Drought, 1 8 7 6 - 1 8 7 8 23
1 Victoria's Ghosts 25
2 'The Poor E a t T h e i r H o m e s ' 61
3 Gunboats and Messiahs 91

P A R T II E l Niiio and the N e w ImperiaHsm, 1 8 8 8 - 1 9 0 2 117

4 T h e Government of H e l l 119
5 Skeletons at the Feast 141
6 Millenarian Revolutions 177

P A R T III Decyphering E N S O 211

7 T h e Mystery of the Monsoons 213
8 Climates of H u n g e r 239

P A R T I V T h e Political Ecology of Famine 277

9 T h e Origins of the T h i r d W o r l d 279
viii LATK V I C T O R I A N HOLOCAUSTS

10 India: T h e Modernization of Poverty 311

11 China: Mandates Revoked 341
12 Brazih Race and Capital in the Nordeste 377

Glossary 395
Notes 399

Index 451

Acknowledgements

A n ancient interest in climate history was r e k i n d l e d during the w e e k I spent as a

fly o n the wall at the J u n e 1998 C h a p m a n C o n f e r e n c e , " M e c h a n i s m o f Millennial-
Scale G l o b a l C l i m a t e C h a n g e , " in S n o w b i r d , U t a h . L i s t e n i n g to the folks w h o
m i n e e n v i r o n m e n t a l history from the G r e e n l a n d Ice Sheet and the B e r m u d a Rise
discuss state-of the-art research o n climate oscillations w a s a truly exhilarating
experience, a n d 1 thank the organizers for allowing a m e r e historian to kibitz
w h a t was intended to be a family conversation.

The outline for this book was subsequently presented as a paper in Septem-
ber 1998 at the conference " E n v i r o n m e n t a l Violence" organized at U C Berkeley
by N a n c y Peluso and M i c h a e l Watts. V i n a y a k C h a t u r v e d i , T o m Brass a n d G o p a l
Balakrishnan generously offered expert and l u m i n o u s criticisms o f this project
in its early stages. K u r t Cuffey spruced up s o m e o f the physics in C h a p t e r 7.
Dan M o n k and Sara L i p t o n , Michelle H u a n g a n d C h i - S h e L i , and Steve and
C h e r y l M u r a k a m i provided the essential aloha. T h e truly hard w o r k was done
by Steve Hiatt, C o l i n Robinson, Jane H i n d l e and m y other colleagues at Verso
Books, while D a v i d Deis created the excellent maps and graphics and T o m Has-
sett proofread the galleys w i t h care. A M a c A r t h u r Fellowship provided u n e n c u m -
bered opportunities for research and writing.

T h e real windfalls in m y life, however, have been the sturdy love and patience
o f m y compaiiera, Alessandra M o c t e z u m a ; the unceasing delight o f m y children.
J a c k a n d R o i s i n ; a n d the friendship o f two incomparable rogue-intellectuals and
 N i n e

The Origins of the Third World

Emaciated people, disease, ribs showing, shriveled

bellies, corpses, children with fly-encircled eyes, with
swollen stomachs, children dying in the streets, rivers
choked with bodies, people; living, sleeping, lying,
dying on the streets in misery, beggary, squalor,
wretchedness, a mass of aboriginal humanity...
- H a r o l d Isaacs

W h a t historians, then, have s o often dismissed as "climatic accidents" t u r n out

to b e not s o accidental after all.' A l t h o u g h i t ssyncopations arecomplex a n d
quasi-periodic, E N S O has a coherent spatial a n d t e m p o r a l logic. A n d , c o n t r a r y t o
E m m a n u e l L e R o y L a d u r i e ' s f a m o u s ( E u r o c e n t r i c ? ) c o n c l u s i o n i n Times of Feast,
Times of Famine that climate change is a "slight, perhaps negligible" shaper o f
h u m a n affairs, E N S O is a n episodically p o t e n t force i n t h eh i s t o r y o f t r o p i c a l
humanity.^ I fas R a y m o n d W i l l i a m s o n c e observed, "Nature contains, though
o f t e n u n n o t i c e d , a ne x t r a o r d i n a r y a m o u n t o f h u m a n history," w eare n o w l e a r n -
i n g that the inverse isequally true: there isa ne x t r a o r d i n a r y a m o u n t o f h i t h e r t o
unnoticed environmental instability i nm o d e r n history' The power o f E N S O
events indeed seems s o o v e r w h e l m i n g i ns o m e instances that i tis t e m p t i n g t o
assert that great famines, like those o fthe 1870s a n d 1890s (or, m o r e recently.
 LATE VICTORIAN HOLOCAUSTS
280
t h e S a h e h a n disaster o f the 1970s), w e r e "caused" b y E l N i f i o , o r b y E l N i i i o
acting u p o n traditional agrarian misery. T h i s interpretation, o f course, inadver-
tently echoes the official line o f the British i n V i c t o r i a n India as recapitulated i n
every famine c o m m i s s i o n report and viceregal allocution: millions were killed by
extreme weather, n o t imperialism.**W a s this true?
'Bad C l i m a t e ' versus 'Bad System'
A t this point i t w o u l d b e i m m e n s e l y useful t o have s o m e strategy for sorting
o u t w h a t t h e C h i n e s e p i t h i l y c o n t r a s t as "bad c l i m a t e " versus "bad system."
Y. K u e h , as w e h a v e s e e n , h a s a t t e m p t e d t o p a r a m e t e r i z e t h e r e s p e c t i v e influ-
ences o f d r o u g h t and policy u p o n agricultural o u t p u t d u r i n g the Great Leap
F o r w a r d f a m i n e o f 1958-61. T h e derivation o fhis "weather index," however,
involved fifteen years o f a r d u o u s research a n d t h e r e s o l u t i o n o f "a series o f c o m -
plicated methodological and technical problems" including a necessary compara-
t i v e r e g r e s s i o n t o t h e 1930s. A l t h o u g h h i s w o r k is m e t h o d o l o g i c a l l y r i c h , h i s c r u -
cial indices d e p e n d u p o n c o m p r e h e n s i v e m e t e o r o l o g i c a l a n d e c o n o m e t r i c data
t h a t are s i m p l y n o t available f o r t h e n i n e t e e n t h century. A direct statistical assault
o n the tangled causal w e b o f the 1876-77 a n d 1896-1902 famines thus seems pre-
cluded.'
A n alternative ist o construct a " n a t u r a l experiment." A s Jared D i a m o n d has
advocated in a recent s e r m o n to historians, such an experiment should compare
systems " d i f f e r i n g i n the presence o r absence ( o r i n the s t r o n g o r w e a k effect) o f
s o m e putative causative factor"" W e ideally need, i n other w o r d s , a n analogue
for t h e late V i c t o r i a n f a m i n e s i n w h i c h t h e n a t u r a l p a r a m e t e r s are constant but
the social variables significanriy differ A n excellent candidate for w h i c h w e pos-
sess u n u s u a l l y d e t a i l e d d o c u m e n t a t i o n is t h e E l N i n o e v e n t o f 1 7 4 3 - 4 4 ( d e s c r i b e d
as " e x c e p t i o n a l " b y W h e t t o n a n d R u t h e r f u r d ) i n i t s i m p a c t o n t h e n o r t h C h i n a
plain." A l t h o u g h n o t as g e o g r a p h i c a l l y f a r - r e a c h i n g as t h e great E N S O d r o u g h t s
o f 1876-78 o r 1899-1900, i t otherwise prefigured their intensities. T h e spring
m o n s o o n failed t w o years i n a row, devastating w i n t e r w h e a t i n H e b e i (Zhili) and
n o r t h e r n Shandong. Scorching w i n d s w i t h e r e d crops and farmers dropped dead
i n t h e i r fields f r o m s u n s t r o k e . P r o v i n c i a l g r a i n s u p p l i e s w e r e u t t e r l y i n a d e q u a t e
t o t h e scale o f need. Y e t u n l i k e t h e late n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y t h e r e w a s n o m a s s
m o r t a l i t y f r o m either s t a r v a t i o n o r disease. W h y n o t ?
THL ORIC.INS Of T H L L I M R i:) WORLD 281
Pierre-Etienne W i l l has carefully reconstructed the fascinating history of the
1 7 4 3 - 4 4 relief campaign from c o n t e m p o r a r y records. U n d e r the skilled C o n f u -
cian administration of Fang G u a n c h c n g , the agricultural and hydraulic expert
w h o directed relief operations in Z h i l i , the r e n o w n e d "ever-normal granaries"
in each county immediately began to issue rations (without any labor test) to
peasants in the officially designated disaster counties." (Local gentry had already
organized soup kitchens to ensure the survival o f the poorest residents until state
distributions began.) W h e n local supplies proved insufficient, G u a n c h e i i g shifted
millet and rice from the great store of tribute g r a i n at T o n g c a n g at the terminus
o f the G r a n d C a n a l , then used the C a n a l to move vast quantities of rice from the
south. T w o million peasants were maintained for eight months, until the r e t u r n
o f the m o n s o o n made agriculture again possible. Ultimately 8 5 percent of the
relief grain was b o r r o w e d from tribute depots or granaries outside the radius o f
the drought."
As W i l l emphasizes, this was famine defense in depth, the "last w o r d in tech-
nology at the time." N o c o n t e m p o r a r y E u r o p e a n society guaranteed subsis-
tence as a h u m a n right to its peasantry {ming-sheng is the C h i n e s e t e r m ) , nor,
as the Physiocrats later marveled, could any emulate "the perfect timing of
[Guancheng's] operations: the action taken always kept up w i t h developments
and even anticipated them."'" Indeed, while the Q i n g were h o n o r i n g their social
contract with the peasantry, c o n t e m p o r a r y E u r o p e a n s were dying in the millions
from famine and hunger-related diseases following arctic winters and s u m m e r
droughts in 1740-43. "The mortality peak of the early 1740s," emphasizes an
authority, "is an outstanding fact o f E u r o p e a n d e m o g r a p h i c history."" In Europe's
Age of Reason, in other words, the "starving masses" were French, Irish and Cal-
abrian, not C h i n e s e .
Moreover "the intervention carried out in Z h i l i in 1743 and 1744 w a s not the
only one o f its k i n d in the eighteenth century, nor even the most extensive."'*'
Indeed, as Table 9 . 1 indicates, the Yellow River flooding o f the previous year
(1742/43) involved m u c h larger expenditures over a m u c h broader region. (In
addition to the E N S O - c o r r e l a t e d droughts and floods s h o w n in the table. W i l l has
also d o c u m e n t e d seven other flood disasters that involved massive relief mobili-
zation.) A l t h o u g h comparable figures are unavailable, Beijing also acted aggres-
sively to aid S h a n d o n g officials in preventing famine during the series o f E l N i n o
282 LATE VICTORIAN HOLOCAUSTS THE ORIGINS OF T H E THIRD WORLD 283

Table 9.1
lation b yt h e"rich households [ w h o ] i ntheir quest f o rprofit habitually remove
E N S O Disa.stens Relieved by the Q i n g
g r a i n b yt h e full t h o u s a n d o rfull m y r i a d bushels."''
Q u i n n Intensity Provinces A m o u n t o f Relief H i s successor Q i a n l o n g , ordered t h eprefects t o send t h ecounty-level price
1720/21 Very strong Shaanxi Unknown reports directly t o t h eB u r e a u o f Revenue i nBeijing so h e could study them
1742/43 (Flooding) Jiangsu/Anhui 17 m i l l i o n taels; 2.3 m i l l i o n s h i
firsthand. T h e emperors' intense personal involvement ensured a high standard
1743/44 Moderate+ Hebei .87 m i l l i o n taels; 1 m i l l i o n shi
o f a c c u r a c y i nprice r e p o r t i n g a n d , as E n d y m i o n W i l k i n s o n d e m o n s t r a t e s , fre-
1778 Strong Henan 1.6 m i l l i o n t a e l s ; . 3 m i l l i o n s h i
q u e n t l y l e d t o s i g n i f i c a n t r e f o r m . ' * T h i s w a s a n o t h e r differentia specifica o f Qing
1779/80 La Niiia Henan same
>
a b s o l u t i s m . I tish a r d t oi m a g i n e a L o u i s X V Is p e n d i n g h i s e v e n i n g s scrupulously
1785 Henan 2.8 m i l l i o n taels
p o r i n g over t h e m i n u t i a e o fg r a i n prices f r o m L i m o g e s o rt h eA u v e r g n e , a l t h o u g h
S o u r c e : C o n s t r u c t e d f r o m T a b l e V l l , W h e t t o n a n d R u t h e r f u r d , p. 244; T a b l e 20, W i l l , Bureaucracy and t h e e f f o r t m i g h t h a v e u l t i m a t e l y s a v e d h i s h e a d f r o m t h eg u i l l o t i n e .
Famine, p p . 298-9.
N o r c a n w eeasily picture a E u r o p e a n m o n a r c h i n t i m a t e l y i n v o l v e d i nt h e eso-
droughts that afflicted that province (and m u c h o ft h etropics) b e t w e e n 1778 a n d t e r i a o f p u b l i c w o r k s t ot h e s a m e d e g r e e t h a t t h e Q i n g r o u t i n e l y i m m e r s e d them-
1 7 8 7 . " T h e contrast w i t h t h e chaotic l a t e - Q i n g relief efforts i n 1877 a n d 1899 (or, selves i nt h edetails o ft h eG r a n d C a n a l g r a i n t r a n s p o r t s y s t e m . " T h e Manchu
for that matter, Mao's monstrous mishandling o ft h e 1958-61 drought) could n o t e m p e r o r s , " J a n e L e o n a r d p o i n t s o u t , " h a dsince t h e e a r l y r e i g n s i n v o l v e d t h e m -
be m o r e s t r i k i n g . S t a t e c a p a c i t y i ne i g h t e e n t h - c e n t u r y C h i n a , as W i l l a n d h i s c o l - selves deeply i nC a n a l m a n a g e m e n t , n o tj u s t i nb r o a d q u e s t i o n s o fp o l i c y b u t
laborators emphasize, w a sd e e p l y i m p r e s s i v e : a cadre o fs k i l l e d a d m i n i s t r a t o r s in t h e c o n t r o l a n dsupervision o flower-level administrative tasks." W h e n , f o r
a n d t r o u b l e - s h o o t e r s , a u n i q u e n a t i o n a l s y s t e m o fg r a i n price s t a b i l i z a t i o n , large example, flooding i n 1 8 2 4 d e s t r o y e d sections o ft h e G r a n d C a n a l a t t h e critical
crop surpluses, well-managed granaries storing m o r e than a million bushels o f H u a i - Y e l l o w River j u n c t i o n , t h eT a o - k u a n g e m p e r o r personally a s s u m e d com-
g r a i n i n e a c h o ft w e l v e p r o v i n c e s , a n d i n c o m p a r a b l e h y d r a u l i c i n f r a s t r u c t u r e s . ' ' ' m a n d o fr e c o n s t r u c t i o n efforts.
The capstone o f Golden A g efood security w a s t h einvigilation o f grain
I n c o n t r a s t , m o r e o v e r , t ol a t e r W e s t e r n s t e r e o t y p e s o fa passive C h i n e s e state,
prices a n dsupply trends b yt h ee m p e r o r h i m s e l f A l t h o u g h e v e r - n o r m a l granaries
g o v e r n m e n t d u r i n g t h e h i g h Q i n g e r a w a sproactively i n v o l v e d i nf a m i n e preven-
w e r e a nancient tradition, price m o n i t o r i n g w a s a chief i n n o v a t i o n o ft h e Q i n g .
tion t h r o u g h a broad p r o g r a m o finvestment i nagricultural i m p r o v e m e n t , irriga-
"Great care w a s exercised b y t h eeighteenth-century E m p e r o r s i nl o o k i n g o v e r
t i o n a n d w a t e r b o r n e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . A si no t h e r things, J o s e p h N e e d h a m points
t h e m e m o r i a l s a n d price lists i ns e a r c h o finconsistencies." O nt h e fifth o f every
o u t , t h e e i g h t e e n t h c e n t u r y w a s a g o l d e n a g e f o rt h e o r e t i c a l a n d h i s t o r i c a l w o r k
m o n t h hsien magistrates f o r w a r d e d detailed price reports t ot h eprefectures, w h o
on flood control a n dcanal construction. Civil engineers w e r e canonized a n d h a d
s u m m a r i z e d t h e m f o r t h e p r o v i n c i a l g o v e r n o r s w h o , i nt u r n , r e p o r t e d t h e i r c o n -
temples erected i ntheir h o n o r ^ " C o n f u c i a n activists like G u a n c h e n g , w i t h a deep
tent i nm e m o r i a l s t ot h e central g o v e r n m e n t . " Carefully studied a n d annotated
c o m m i t m e n t t oa g r i c u l t u r a l i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n , " t e n d e d t og i v e t o pp r i o r i t y t o invest-
by t h e emperors, these " v e r m i l l i o n rescripts" testify t oa nextraordinary engage-
ments i ninfrastructure a n dt o consider t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n o ff o o d relief merely
m e n t w i t h t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f f o o d security a n dr u r a l well-being. " I n t h e 1720s
a makeshift." Guancheng also w r o t e a f a m o u s m a n u a l ( t h esource o fm u c h o f
a n d 1730s," R .B i n W o n g writes, " t h e Y o n g z h e n g e m p e r o r personally scrutinized
Will's account) that codified historically tested principles o fdisaster p l a n n i n g a n d
g r a n a r y operations, ash ed i dall o t h e r bureaucratic behavior; h i sintense interest
relief m a n a g m e n t : s o m e t h i n g else t h a t h a s little p r e c e d e n t i nb a c k w a r d European
in official efforts a n d h i s readiness t oberate officials f o rw h a t h e considered fail-
tradition.-'
ures partially explain t h ed e v e l o p m e n t o fg r a n a r y o p e r a t i o n s b e y o n d t h e levels
Finally, there is p l e n t i f u l evidence that t h en o r t h e r n C h i n a peasantry during
a c h i e v e d i nt h e late K a n g x i p e r i o d . " " Y o n g z h e n g also s e v e r e l y s a n c t i o n e d specu-
t h e h i g h Q i n g w a s m o r e n u t r i t i o n a l l y self-reliant a n dless v u l n e r a b l e t o c l i m a t e
284 LATH VICTORIAN HOLOCAUSTS
THE ORIGINS OF T H E THIRD WORLD 285

Stress t h a n t h e i r d e s c e n d a n t s a c e n t u r y l a t e r I n t h ee i g h t e e n t h c e n t u r y , after t h e
the south. Large stockpiles o f tribute grain at strategic transportation nodes i n
K a n g x i e m p e r o r p e r m a n e n t l y froze land revenue at t h e 1712 level, C h i n a experi-
H e n a n a n da l o n g t h e S h a n x i - S h a a n x i border w e r e specially designated f o r t h e
enced " t h emildest agrarian taxation i t h a dever k n o w n i n t h ew h o l e o f its his-
r e l i e f o ft h e loess provinces, a n d a n a b u n d a n c e o fw a t e r sources g u a r a n t e e d t h e
t o r y " " D w i g h t Perkins estimates that t h e formal land t a x w a sa mere 5 to 6
G r a n d Canal's n a v i g a b i l i t y year-round.^' W h e r e a s i n 1876 t h e C h i n e s e state -
percent o f t h e harvest a n d that a large p o r t i o n w a sexpended locally b y hsien
enfeebled a n d d e m o r a l i z e d after t h e failure o ft h e T o n g z h i Restoration's d o m e s -
and provincial governments/' Likewise, t h e exchange ratio between silver a n d
tic r e f o r m s - w a s r e d u c e d t o d e s u l t o r y c a s h r e l i e f a u g m e n t e d b y p r i v a t e d o n a -
copper coinage, w h i c h t u r n e d s o disastrously against t h ep o o r peasantry i n the
tions a n d h u m i l i a t i n g foreign charity, i n t h eeighteenth century i t h a d b o t h t h e
n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y , w a s s t a b i l i z e d b y t h eb o o m i n g o u t p u t o f t h e Y u n n a n c o p p e r
t e c h n o l o g y a n d political w i l l t o shift g r a i n massively b e t w e e n regions and, thus,
mines (replacing Japanese imports) a n d t h e great inflow o f Mexican bullion
relieve h u n g e r o n a larger scale t h a n a n y p r e v i o u s p o l i t y i n w o r l d h i s t o r y ^ "
earned b y China's huge trade surplus/' Unlike their contemporary French coun-
terparts, t h e f a r m e r s o ft h e Y e l l o w R i v e r plain (the vast m a j o r i t y o fw h o m owned
' L a w s of Leather' versus ' L a w s o f Iron'
their land) w e r e neither crushed b y exorbitant taxes n o rg r o u n d d o w n b y feudal
W h a t about f a m i n e i npre-British India? A g a i n , there is little evidence that r u r a l
rents. N o r t h C h i n a , i nparticular, w a s unprecedentedly prosperous b y historical
India h a dever experienced subsistence crises o n t h e scale o f t h e B e n g a l catas-
standards, a n dW i l l estimates that t h epercentage o f t h e rural population ordi-
t r o p h e o f 1770 u n d e r East I n d i a C o m p a n y r u l e o r t h e l o n g siege b y disease a n d
narily living near t h e edge o fstarvation - depending, f o re x a m p l e , o n h u s k s a n d
h u n g e r b e t w e e n 1875 a n d 1920 t h a t s l o w e d p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h a l m o s t t o a stand-
w i l d vegetables f o r a s u b s t a n t i a l p a r t o f t h e i r d i e t - w a s less t h a n 2 percent.As
still. T h e M o g u l s , t o b e sure, d i d n o t dispose o f a n y t h i n g like t h e resources o f
a result, e p i d e m i c disease, u n l i k e i n E u r o p e , w a sh e l d i n c h e c k f o r m o s t o f t h e
t h e c e n t r a l i z e d Q i n g state a t its e i g h t e e n t h - c e n t u r y z e n i t h , n o rw a s t h e i r a d m i n -
"Golden Age."^'
i s t r a t i v e h i s t o r y as w e l l d o c u m e n t e d . A s S a n j a y S h a r m a h a s p o i n t e d o u t , " T h e
Still, c o u l d e v e n F a n g G u a n c h e n g have c o p e d w i t h d r o u g h t disasters engulf
p r o b l e m s o fi n t e r v e n i n g i n the c o m p l e x n e t w o r k o fcaste-based local m a r k e t s a n d
ing t h e larger part o fn o r t h C h i n a o n t h escale o f 1876 o r e v e n 1899? I tis i m p o r -
t r a n s p o r t b o t r i e n e c k s r e n d e r e d a n effective state i n t e r v e n t i o n q u i t e difficult."^"
tant t o w e i g h this q u e s t i o n carefully since d r o u g h t - f a m i n e s w e r e m o r e localized
On t h e o t h e r h a n d , b e n e f i t i n g perhaps f r o m a m i l d e r E N S O cycle, M o g u l
in t h e e i g h t e e n t h century, a n dbecause t h e 1876 d r o u g h t , as w e have seen, m a y
I n d i a w a s g e n e r a l l y free o f f a m i n e u n t i l t h e 1770s. T h e r e is considerable evi-
have been a 200-year o r even 500-year frequency event. M o r e o v e r , t h elate Victo-
dence, moreover, that i npre-British India before t h e creation o f a railroad-girded
rian droughts reached particular intensity i n t h e loess highlands o f S h a n x i a n d
n a t i o n a l m a r k e t i ng r a i n , village-level f o o d reserves w e r e larger, p a t r i m o n i a l w e l -
Shaanxi, w h e r e transport costs w e r e highest a n dbottlenecks unavoidable. I tis
fare m o r e widespread, a n d g r a i n prices i nsurplus areas better insulated against
reasonable, therefore, t o concede that a drought o f 1876magnitude i n 1743
speculation.'" (As w e have seen, t h e perverse c o n s e q u e n c e o f a u n i t a r y m a r k e t
would inevitably have i n v o l v e d tens, perhaps even hundreds, o f thousands o f
w a s t o e x p o r t f a m i n e , v i a p r i c e i n f l a t i o n , t o t h e r u r a l p o o r i n g r a i n - s u r p l u s dis-
deaths i nm o r e r e m o t e villages.
tricts.) T h e British, o f course, h a da vested interest i n c l a i m i n g that they h a d liber-
S u c h a d r o u g h t , h o w e v e r , w o u l d have b e e n unlikely, as i nt h elate nineteenth
ated t h epopulace f r o m a dark age o fM o g u l despotism: " O n e o f t h e foundations
c e n t u r y , to g r o w i n t o a v e r i t a b l e h o l o c a u s t that consumed t h egreater part o f
o f C r o w n R u l e w a s t h e b e l i e f t h a t . . . I n d i a ' s p a s t w a s f u l l o f d e p r a v i t y " " B u t , as
t h e p o p u l a t i o n s o fw h o l e prefectures a n d counties. I ncontrast t o t h e s i t u a t i o n i n
Bose a n d Jalal p o i n t o u t , " T h e picture o fa n e m a c i a t e d a n d oppressed peasantry
1876-77, w h e n granaries were depleted o r l o o t e d a n dprices s o a r e d o u to f c o n -
m e r c i l e s s l y e x p l o i t e d b y t h e e m p e r o r a n d h i s n o b i l i t y , is b e i n g s e r i o u s l y a l t e r e d
trol, eighteenth-century administrators could c o u n t o n a large imperial budget
in t h e light o fn e w interpretations o ft h e evidence."'^ Recent research b y A s h o k
surplus a n dwell-stocked local granaries backed u p b y a huge surplus o frice i n
Desai indicates that "the m e a n standard o ff o o d c o n s u m p t i o n i nAkbar's e m p i r e
 THE ORIGINS OF T H E THIRD WORLD 287
286 LATE VICTORIAN HOLOCAUSTS

was appreciably higher than i nt h e India o f t h e early 1960s."" 1820 t h e r e h a d b e e n o n l y t h r e e v e r y b a d s e a s o n s i n t h e M a r a t h a l a n d s a n d , though

T h e M o g u l state, m o r e o v e r , " r e g a r d e d t h e p r o t e c t i o n o f t h e p e a s a n t as a n s o m e years h a d b e e n 'indifferent,' n o n e h a d b e e n as ' b a d as t o o c c a s i o n a n y par-

essential obligation," a n d there are n u m e r o u s examples o f h u m a n e i f sporadic ticular distress.'"'" D .E .U . B a k e r cites a later British a d m i n i s t r a t i v e r e p o r t from

relief operations." Like their Chinese contemporaries, t h e M o g u l rulers Akbar, the Central Provinces that contrasted t h edesultory relief efforts o ft h eEast India

Shahjahan a n d Aurangzeb relied o n a quartet o f f u n d a m e n t a l policies - embar- C o m p a n y d u r i n g t h e d r o u g h t s o f t h e 1820s a n d 1830s ("a f e w t h o u s a n d rupees")

gos o n f o o d exports, antispeculative price regulation, t a x relief a n d distribution w i t h t h e earlier a n d h i g h l y effective M a r a t h a policy o f forcing local elites t o feed

o f free f o o d w i t h o u t a forced-labor c o u n t e r p a r t - t h a t w e r e a n a n a t h e m a t o the poor ("enforced charity o f hundreds o f rich men")."' Indeed t h e resilient

later British U t i l i t a r i a n s . " T h e y also zealously poHced t h e g r a i n trade i n t h e M a r a t h a social o r d e r w a sf o u n d e d o n a m i l i t a r i z e d free peasantry a n d 'very f e w

public interest. A s one horrified British w r i t e r discovered, these "oriental despots" landless laborers existed." I n contrast t o t h e British-imposed raiyatwari system,

punished traders w h o shortchanged peasants d u r i n g famines b y a m p u t a t i n g a n occupancy rights i n t h e M a r a t h a Deccan were n o t tied t o revenue payment,

equivalent w e i g h t o f m e r c h a n t flesh.'" taxes varied according t o t h e actual harvest, c o m m o n lands a n d resources were
accessible t o t h e poor, a n d t h e rulers subsidized local irrigation i m p r o v e m e n t s
I n contrast t o t h e Raj's p u n i t i v e t a x a t i o n o f i r r i g a t i o n a n d itsneglect o f tradi-
w i t h c h e a p taqavi ( o rtagai) l o a n s . I n a d d i t i o n , E l p h i n s t o n e o b s e r v e d , t h e " s o b e r ,
tional wells a n d reservoirs, t h e M o g u l s used t a xsubsidies t o p r o m o t e w a t e r con-
frugal, industrious" M a r a t h a farmers lived i ngenerally tolerant coexistence with
s e r v a t i o n . A s D a v i d H a r d i m a n e x p l a i n s i n t h e case o f G u j a r a t : " L o c a l officials h a d
the Bhils a n d other tribal peoples. Ecological a n d economic synergies balanced
considerable discretion over tax assessment, a n di tseems t o have been their prac-
t h e d i v e r s e c l a i m s o f p l a i n s a g r i c u l t u r e , p a s t o r a l i s m a n d f o o t h i l l swidden.**^
tice t o e n c o u r a g e w e l l - c o n s t r u c t i o n b y g r a n t i n g t a x concessions. I n t h e A h m e d -
abad region, for example, i tw a s c o m m o n t o waive t h e taxo n a 'rabi' crop raised In contrast t o t h e rigidity a n d dogmatism o f British land-and-revenue setde-

t h r o u g h irrigation f r o m a recently constructed well. T h econcession continued ments, b o t h t h e M o g u l s a n d Marathas flexibly tailored their rule t o take account

until t h e tax e x e m p t i o n s w e r e h e l d t o have equalled t h e cost o f c o n s t r u c t i o n . " " o f t h e crucial ecological relationships a n d unpredictable climate fluctuations o f
the subcontinent's drought-prone regions. T h e M o g u l s h a d "laws o f leather,"
O c c a s i o n a l l y t h e B r i t i s h p a i d a p p r o p r i a t e t r i b u t e t o t h e policies o f t h e i r "des-
w r o t e j o u r n a l i s t V a u g h a n N a s h d u r i n g t h e f a m i n e o f 1899, i n contrast to the
p o t i c " p r e d e c e s s o r s . T h e first F a m i n e C o m m i s s i o n R e p o r t i n 1 8 8 0 , f o r e x a m p l e ,
British " l a w s o f iron.""" M o r e o v e r , t r a d i t i o n a l I n d i a n elites, like t h e great Bengali
cited Aurangzeb's extraordinary relief campaign during t h e ( E l Nifio?) drought-
zamindars, seldom shared Utilitarian obsessions w i t h welfare cheating a n d labor
f a m i n e o f 1661: " T h e E m p e r o r opened his treasury a n dgranted m o n e y w i t h o u t
discipline. " R e q u i r i n g t h e p o o r t o w o r k f o r relief a practice begun i n 1866 i n
stint. H e gave every e n c o u r a g e m e n t t o t h e i m p o r t a t i o n o fc o r n a n deither sold i t
B e n g a l u n d e r t h e i n f i u e n c e o f t h e V i c t o r i a n P o o r L a w , w a s i n flat c o n t r a d i c t i o n
at r e d u c e d prices, o r d i s t r i b u t e d i t g r a t u i t o u s l y a m o n g s t t h o s e w h o w e r e t o o p o o r
t o t h e B e n g a l i p r e m i s e t h a t f o o d s h o u l d b e g i v e n u n g r u d g i n g l y , as a f a t h e r gives
t o p a y H e also p r o m p t l y a c k n o w l e d g e d t h e necessity o fr e m i t t i n g the rents o f t h e
food t o h i schildren.""' A l t h o u g h t h e British insisted that they h a d rescued India
c u l t i v a t o r s a n d relieved t h e m f o rt h e l i m e b e i n g o f o t h e r taxes. T h e v e r n a c u l a r
f r o m "timeless hunger," m o r e t h a n o n e official w a s j o l t e d w h e n I n d i a n national-
chronicles o f the p e r i o d attribute t h e salvation o f m i l l i o n s o f lives a n d t h e preser-
i s t s q u o t e d f r o m a n 1 8 7 8 s t u d y p u b l i s h e d i n t h e p r e s t i g i o u s J o u r n a l of the Statisti-
v a t i o n o fm a n y provinces t o his strenuous exertions.""*
cal Society that contrasted thirty-one serious famines i n 120years o f British rule
F o o d security w a s also probably better i n t h e Deccan d u r i n g t h e period o f
against o n l y seventeen recorded famines i nt h e entire previous t w o millennia.""
M a r a t h a rule. A s M o u n t s t u a r t E l p h i n s t o n e a d m i t t e d retrospectively after the Brit-
ish conquest, " T h e M a h r a t t a c o u n t r y flourished, a n d t h e people seem t o have India a n d C h i n a , i n o t h e r w o r d s , d i dn o tenter m o d e r n h i s t o r y as t h e helpless

b e e n e x e m p t f r o m s o m e o f t h e evils w h i c h exist u n d e r o u r m o r e perfect G o v e r n - "lands o f f a m i n e " s o u n i v e r s a l l y e n s h r i n e d i n t h e Vv^estern i m a g i n a t i o n . C e r t a i n l y

ment."'" H i s c o n t e m p o r a r y , Sir J o h n M a l c o l m , "claimed that b e t w e e n 1770 a n d the intensity o f t h e E N S O cycle i n t h e late n i n e t e e n t h century perhaps only
288 LATE VICTORIAN LIOLOCAUSTS
THE ORIGINS Oh T H E T H I R D WORLD 289

e q u a l e d o nt h r e e o rf o u r o t h e r o c c a s i o n s i n t h e last m i l l e n n i u m , m u s t l o o m large
sive f o rr u r a l subsistence i n t h e late Victorian " p r o t o - t h i r d w o r l d ."
i n a n y e x p l a n a t i o n o ft h e c a t a s t r o p h e s o ft h e 1870s a n d 1890s. B u t i ti s scarcely
First, t h eforcible i n c o r p o r a t i o n o fs m a l l h o l d e r p r o d u c t i o n i n t o c o m m o d i t y
the only independent variable. E q u a l causal weight, o rm o r e , m u s t b e accorded
and financial circuits controlled f r o m overseas tended t o undermine traditional
to t h e g r o w i n g social vulnerability t oclimate variabihty that b e c a m e s o evident
f o o d s e c u r i t y . R e c e n t s c h o l a r s h i p c o n f i r m s t h a t i t w a s subsistence adversity (high
in south Asia, n o r t h China, northeast B r a z i l a n ds o u t h e r n A f r i c a i nl a t e Victo-
taxes, c h r o n i c indebtedness, inadequate acreage, loss o fsubsidiary employment
r i a n t i m e s . A sM i c h a e l W a t t s h a se l o q u e n r i y a r g u e d i nh i s h i s t o r y o ft h e " s i l e n t
opportunities, enclosure o fc o m m o n resources, d i s s o l u t i o n o fp a t r i m o n i a l obli-
violence" o fdrought-famine i n c o l o n i a l N i g e r i a : " C l i m a t e r i s k ... i s n o t g i v e n
gations, a n d s oon), n o tentrepreneurial opportunity, that typically p r o m o t e d t h e
b y n a t u r e b u t ... b y ' n e g o t i a t e d s e t t l e m e n t ' s i n c e e a c h s o c i e t y h a s i n s t i t u t i o n a l ,
t u r n t oc a s h - c r o p c u l t i v a t i o n . R u r a l capital, i nt u r n , t e n d e d t ob e parasitic rather
social, a n d technical m e a n s f o rc o p i n g w i t h risk.... F a m i n e s [ t h u s l a r e social crises
t h a n productivist as rich l a n d o w n e r s redeployed fortunes that they built d u r i n g
that represent t h e failures o f particular e c o n o m i c a n d political systems.""'
export b o o m s into usury, rack-renting a n dcrop brokerage. "Marginal subsistence
producers," H a n s M e d i c k p o i n t s o u t , " ... d i d n o t b e n e f i t f r o m t h e m a r k e t under
Perspectives on Vulnerability
these circumstances; t h e y w e r e d e v o u r e d b y it.""" M e d i c k , w r i t i n g a b o u t t h e anal-
O v e r t h elast g e n e r a t i o n , scholars have produced a bumper-crop o f revealing
ogous predicament o fm a r g i n a l s m a l l h o l d e r s i n " p r o t o - i n d u s t r i a l " E u r o p e , pro-
s o c i a l a n de c o n o m i c h i s t o r i e s o ft h e r e g i o n s t e l e c o n n e c t e d t oENSO's episodic
vides a nexemplary description o ft h e d i l e m m a o fmillions o f Indian a n d Chinese
disturbances. T h e t h r u s t o fthis r e s e a r c h has been t ofurther demolish oriental-
p o o r peasants i n t h e late nineteenth century:
ist s t e r e o t y p e s o f i m m u t a b l e p o v e r t y a n d o v e r p o p u l a t i o n ast h e n a t u r a l p r e c o n d i -
tions o f t h e m a j o r n i n e t e e n t h - c e n t u r y f a m i n e s . T h e r e ispersuasive evidence that For t h e m [even J rising agrarian prices did n o tnecessarily m e a n increasing incomes.
p e a s a n t s a n d f a r m l a b o r e r s b e c a m e d r a m a t i c a l l y m o r e p r e g n a b l e t on a t u r a l disas- Since their m a r g i n a l productivity w a s l o w a n d production fluctuated, rising agrar-
ter after 1850 astheir local e c o n o m i e s w e r e v i o l e n t l yi n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o t h e w o r l d ian prices tended t o b e a source o findebtedness rather t h a n affording t h e m t h e
market. W h a t colonial administrators a n d missionaries - even sometimes Creole opportunity t o accumulate surpluses. T h e "anomaly o f t h e agrarian markets"
forced t h e m a r g i n a l subsLstence p r o d u c e r s i n t o a n u n e q u a l exchange relationship
elites, asi n Brazil ~ perceived ast h e persistence o f ancient cycles o f b a c k w a r d n e s s
t h r o u g h t h e market.... Instead o f profiting f r o m exchange, they were forced b y t h e
w e r e typically m o d e r n structures o f f o r m a l o ri n f o r m a l i m p e r i a l i s m .
m a r k e t i n t o t h e progressive d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f t h e i r c o n d i t i o n s o f p r o d u c t i o n , i.e. t h e
F r o m t h eperspective o fp o l i t i c a l ecology, t h ev u l n e r a b i l i t y o ft r o p i c a l agri- loss o ft h e i r p r o p e r t y titles. Especially i nyears o fb a d harvests, a n d h i g h prices,
culturalists t oe x t r e m e cHmate events after 1870 w a s m a g n i f i e d b y simultaneous the petty producers w e r e c o m p e l l e d t o b u y additional grain, a n d ,w o r s e , t og o i n t o

r e s t r u c t u r i n g s o fh o u s e h o l d a n d v i l l a g e l i n k a g e s t or e g i o n a l p r o d u c t i o n systems, debt. T h e n , i ng o o d harvest years w h e n cereal prices w e r e low, they f o u n d i t h a r d t o

extricate themselves f r o m t h e previously a c c u m u l a t e d debts; o w i n g t o t h e l o w p r o -
w o r l d c o m m o d i t y m a r k e t s a n d t h e c o l o n i a l ( o rd e p e n d e n t ) state. " I t is, o f c o u r s e ,
d u c t i v i t y o f t h e i r h o l d i n g s t h e y c o u l d n o t p r o d u c e sufficient q u a n t i t i e s f o r sale.'"
the constellation o fthese social relations," writes W a t t s , " w h i c h binds house-
h o l d s t o g e t h e r a n d p r o j e c t t h e m i n t o t h em a r k e t p l a c e , t h a t d e t e r m i n e s t h e pre-
As a result, t h eposition o f small rural producers i nt h einternational e c o n o m i c
cise f o r m o fthehousehold v u l n e r a b i l i t y I t is also these s a m e social relations
hierarchy equated w i t h d o w n w a r d mobility, or, a tbest, stagnation. T h e r e is con-
that have failed t ostimulate o rhave actually prevented t h e development o f the
sistent evidence f r o m n o r t h C h i n a as well as India a n d northeast Brazil o f falling
productive forces that m i g h t have lessened this vulnerability." Indeed, n e w social
h o u s e h o l d w e a l t h a n dincreased f r a g m e n t a t i o n o r alienation o fland. Whether
r e l a t i o n s o f p r o d u c t i o n , i nt a n d e m w i t h t h e N e wI m p e r i a l i s m , " n o to n l y a l t e r e d
f a r m e r s w e r e d i r e c t l y e n g a g e d b y f o r e i g n c a p i t a l , l i k e t h e B e r a r i khatedars and
t h e e x t e n t o fh u n g e r i n a statistical sense b u t c h a n g e d itsvery etiology""" T h r e e
C e a r a n parceiros w h o f e d t h e m i l l s o fL a n c a s h i r e d u r i n g t h e C o t t o n F a m i n e , o r
points o f articulation w i t h larger socio-economic structures w e r e especially deci-
w e r e s i m p l y p r o d u c i n g f o r d o m e s t i c m a r k e t s s u b j e c t t oi n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m p e t i t i o n
290 LATE VICTORIAN HOLOCAUSTS
like t h e cotton-spinning peasants o f t h e Boxer hsiens i nw e s t e r n Shandong, c o m -
mercialization w e n t h a n d i n h a n d w i t h pauperization w i t h o u t any silver lining o f
technical change o r agrarian capitalism.
Second, the integration o f millions o f tropical cultivators into t h e w o r l d
m a r k e t d u r i n g t h e late n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y w a sa c c o m p a n i e d b y a d r a m a t i c dete-
r i o r a t i o n i n t h e i r t e r m s o f trade. Peasants' lack o f m a r k e t p o w e r vis-a-vis crop
merchants a n d creditors w a s redoubled b y their commodities' falling interna-
tional purchasing p o w e r T h e famous Kondratief d o w n s w i n g o f 1873-1897 made
d r a m a t i c geographical discriminations. A s W . A r t h u r L e w i s suggests, compara-
tive p r o d u c t i v i t y o r t r a n s p o r t costs alone c a n n o t explain a n e m e r g e n t structure
o f global unequal exchange that valued t h e products o f tropical agriculture so
d i f f e r e n t l y from t h o s e o f t e m p e r a t e f a r m i n g . ' W i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f s u g a r , a l l t h e
c o m m o d i t i e s w h o s e price w a s l o w e r i n 1913 t h a n i n 1883 w e r e c o m m o d i t i e s p r o -
duced a l m o s t w h o l l y i n t h e tropics. A l l t h e c o m m o d i t i e s w h o s e prices rose over
this thirty-year period w e r e c o m m o d i t i e s i n w h i c h t h e temperate countries pro-
d u c e d a substantial part o f t o t a l supplies. T h e fall i n ocean freight rates affected
tropical m o r e t h a n t e m p e r a t e prices, b u t this s h o u l d n o t m a k e a difference o f
m o r e t h a n five p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t s . " "
Third, f o r m a l a n di n f o r m a l Victorian imperialism, backed u p b y t h e superna-
t i o n a l a u t o m a t i s m o f t h e G o l d S t a n d a r d , c o n f i s c a t e d l o c a l fiscal a u t o n o m y a n d
i m p e d e d state-level d e v e l o p m e n t a l responses - especially investments i n w a t e r
conservancy a n d irrigation - that m i g h t have reduced vulnerability t o climate
s h o c k s . A s C u r z o n o n c e f a m o u s l y c o m p l a i n e d t o t h e 1-Iouse o f L o r d s , t a r i f f s
" w e r e decided i n L o n d o n , n o t i n India; i n England's interests, n o t i n India's.
M o r e o v e r , as w e s h a l l see i n t h e n e x t c h a p t e r , a n y g r a s s r o o t s b e n e f i t f r o m B r i t i s h
railroad a n d canal c o n s t r u c t i o n w a s largely canceled b y official neglect o f local
irrigation a n dt h e brutal enclosures o f forest a n dpasture resources. E x p o r t earn-
i n g s , i n o t h e r w o r d s , n o t o n l y f a i l e d t o r e t u r n t o s m a l l h o l d e r s as i n c r e m e n t s i n
h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e , b u t also as usable social capital o r state i n v e s t m e n t .
I n C h i n a , t h e " n o r m a l i z a t i o n " o f g r a i n prices a n d t h e ecological stabilization
o f agriculture i n the Yellow River plain were undermined by an interaction o f
e n d o g e n o u s crises a n d t h e loss o f s o v e r e i g n t y o v e r f o r e i g n t r a d e i n t h e a f t e r m a t h
o f t h e t w o O p i u m W a r s . A s d i s c o n n e c t e d f r o m w o r l d m a r k e t p e r t u r b a t i o n s as t h e
s t a r v i n g loess provinces m i g h t have s e e m e d i n 1877, t h e catastrophic fate o f t h e i r
THE ORIGINS OF THE THIRD WORLD 291
p o p u l a t i o n s w a s indirectly d e t e r m i n e d b y W e s t e r n i n t e r v e n t i o n a n d t h e conse-
q u e n t decline i n state capacity t o ensure t r a d i t i o n a l w e l f a r e . S i m i l a r l y t h e deple-
t i o n o f " e v e r - n o r m a l " granaries m a y have resulted f r o m a vicious circle o f m u l -
tiple interacting causes over a fifty-year span, b u tt h ecoup de grace was certainly
the structural recession a n d p e r m a n e n t fiscal crisis e n g i n e e r e d b y P a l m e r s t o n ' s
aggressions against C h i n a i n t h e 1850s. A s f o r e i g n pressure i n t e n s i f i e d i n l a t e r
d e c a d e s , t h e e m b a t t i e d Q i n g , as K e n n e t h P o m e r a n z h a s s h o w n , w e r e f o r c e d t o
abandon both their traditional mandates: abandoning both hydraulic control a n d
grain stockpiling i n t h eYellow River provinces i n order t o concentrate o n defend-
ing their endangered commercial Httoral."
B r i t i s h c o n t r o l o v e r B r a z i l ' s f o r e i g n d e b t a n d t h u s i t s fiscal c a p a c i t y l i k e w i s e
helps explain t h e failure o f either t h e empire o r itssuccessor republic t o launch
any antidrought developmental effort i n t h e sertao. T h e z e r o - s u m economic
conflicts b e t w e e n Brazil's r i s i n g a n d d e c l i n i n g r e g i o n s t o o k place i n a s t r u c t u r a l
context w h e r e L o n d o n banks, above allt h e Rothschilds, ultimately o w n e d t h e
money-supply I n c o m m o n w i t h t h e India a n d China, t h e inability t opolitically
r e g u l a t e i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h t h e w o r l d m a r k e t a t t h e v e r y time w h e n m a s s s u b s i s -
tence increasingly depended u p o n f o o d entitlements acquired i n international
t r a d e b e c a m e a s i n i s t e r s y l l o g i s m f o r f a m i n e . M o r e o v e r i n t h e t h r e e cases o f t h e
Deccan, t h eYellow River basin a n dt h e Nordeste, f o r m e r "core" regions o f eigh-
t e e n t h - c e n t u r y s u b c o n t i n e n t a l p o w e r systems w e r e successively t r a n s f o r m e d i n t o
famished peripheries o fa London-centered w o r l d e c o n o m y
T h e e l a b o r a t i o n o f t h e s e t h e s e s , as a l w a y s i n g e o - h i s t o r i c a l e x p l a n a t i o n , i n v i t e s
closer analysis a t different magnifications. Before considering case-studies o f r u r a l
i m m i s e r a t i o n i n k e y r e g i o n s devastated b y t h e 1870s a n d 1890s E l N i i i o events
o r l o o k i n g at t h e relationships a m o n g i m p e r i a l i s m , state capacity a n d ecological
crisis a t t h e village level, i t is n e c e s s a r y t o b r i e f l y discuss h o w t h e s t r u c t u r a l posi-
tions o f Indians a n dChinese (the big battalions o fthe future T h i r d W o r l d ) i n t h e
w o r l d e c o n o m y changed over t h ecourse o ft h enineteenth century Understand-
ing h o w tropical h u m a n i t y lost so m u c h e c o n o m i c g r o u n d t o w e s t e r n Europe-
ans after 1850 goes a l o n g w a y t o w a r d e x p l a i n i n g w h y f a m i n e w a s able t o reap
such h e c a t o m b s i n E l N i f i o years. A s a baseline for u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e o r i g i n s o f
m o d e r n g l o b a l i n e q u a l i t y ( a n d t h a t is t h e k e y q u e s t i o n ) , t h e h e r c u l e a n statistical
labors o f P a u l B a i r o c h a n d A n g u s M a d d i s o n o v e r t h e last t h i r t y years have b e e n
 THE ORIGINS OF T H E THIRD WORLD 293
292 LATH VICTORIAN HOLOCAUSTS

Table 9.2
c o m p l e m e n r e d b y r e c e n t c o m p a r a t i v e case-studies o fE u r o p e a n a n d A s i a n stan-
Shares o f W o r l d G D P
dards o f living.
(Percent)

T h e Defeat of Asia 1700 1820 1890 1952

China 23.1 32.4 13.2 5.2
Bairoch's f a m o u s c l a i m , c o r r o b o r a t e d b yM a d d i s o n , isthat differences i n i n c o m e
India 22.6 15.7 11.0 3.8
a n d w e a l t h b e t w e e n t h e great civilizadons o f t h e eighteenth c e n t u r y w e r e rela-
Europe 23.3 26.6 40.3 29.7
tively slight: " I t is v e r y likely that, i nt h e m i d d l e o ft h e e i g h t e e n t h c e n t u r y t h e
average standard o f l i v i n g i n E u r o p e w a s a little b i t l o w e r t h a n that o ft h e rest Source: Angus Maddison, Chinese Economic Perf'omtance in the Long Rim, Paris 1998. p. 40.

o f t h e w o r l d . W h e n t h e sans culottes s t o r m e d t h e Bastille, t h e largest manufac-

t u r i n g districts i n t h e w o r l d w e r e still t h e Y a n g z i D e l t a a n d B e n g a l , w i t h Lingan C h i n a [and India] than in Europe.""" "Basic functional literacy," adds F. Mote,

(modern Guangdong a n d G u a n g x i ) a n d coastal M a d r a s n o t far behind.'' India "was m o r e widespread than in W e s t e r n countries at that time, including a m o n g

alone produced one-quarter o f w o r l d manufactures, a n d w h i l e its "pre-capitalist w o m e n at all social levels.""'

a g r a r i a n l a b o u r p r o d u c t i v i t y w a s p r o b a b l y less t h a n t h eJ a p a n e s e - C h i n e s e level, Moreover, in the recent f o r u m "Re-thinking 18th C e n t u r y C h i n a , " K e n n e t h

its c o m m e r c i a l capital s u r p a s s e d t h a t o f t h e C h i n e s e . " ' " P o m e r a n z points to evidence that ordinary C h i n e s e enjoyed a higher standard of

As Prasannan Parthasarathi has recently shown, t h e stereotype o f the Indian c o n s u m p r i o n than eighteenth-century E u r o p e a n s :

l a b o r e r a s a h a l f s t a r v e d w r e t c h i n a l o i n c l o t h collapses i n t h e face o fn e w d a t a
C h i n e s e life e x p e c t a n c y ( a n d t h u s n u t r i t i o n ) w a s a t r o u g h l y E n g l i s h levels ( a n d s o
about comparative standards o f living. "Indeed, there is compelling evidence
above C o n t i n e n t a l ones) e v e n i n t h e late 1700s. ( C h i n e s e fertility w a sactually l o w e r
that South Indian labourers h a d higher earnings than their British counterparts t h a n E u r o p e ' s b e t w e e n 1550 a n d 1850, w h i l e itsp o p u l a t i o n g r e w faster; t h u s m o r -
i n t h e e i g h t e e n t h c e n t u r y a n d l i v e d lives o fg r e a t e r financial security." Because tality m u s t have been l o w . ) M o r e o v e r , m y estimates o f"non-essential" consump-
the p r o d u c t i v i t y o fland w a s h i g h e r i n S o u t h India, weavers a n d o t h e r artisans tion c o m e o u t surprisingly high. Sugar c o n s u m p t i o n w o r k s o u tt o b e t w e e n 4.3 a n d

enjoyed better diets t h a n average Europeans. M o r e i m p o r t a n t l y their u n e m p l o y - 5.0 p o u n d s p e r capita ca. 1750 - a n d m u c h h i g h e r i n s o m e r e g i o n s - c o m p a r e d w i t h
barely 2 p o u n d s p e r capita fo r E u r o p e . C h i n a circa 1750 seems t o have p r o d u c e d 6 - 8
m e n t rates tended t o b el o w e r because they possessed superior rights o f contract
lbs. o f c o t t o n c l o t h p e r capita; its richest area, t h e Y a n g z i D e l t a ( p o p u l a t i o n r o u g h l y
and exercised m o r e e c o n o m i c p o w e r B u teven outcaste agricultural labourers
31 m i l l i o n ) , p r o b a b l y p r o d u c e d b e t w e e n 1 2a n d 15 lbs. p e r capita. T h e U K , e v e n
i n M a d r a s e a r n e d m o r e i nreal t e r m s t h a n E n g H s h f a r m laborers.'' ( B y 1900, i n i n 1800, p r o d u c e d r o u g h l y 1 3 l b s . o f c o t t o n , l i n e n a n d w o o l c l o t h c o m b i n e d p e r
contrast, R o m e s h C h u n d e r D u t t e s t i m a t e d t h a t t h eaverage British household resident, a n dC o n t i n e n t a l o u t p u t w a sprobably b e l o w China's.""
income w a s21 times higher)'"
P o m e r a n z has also calculated that "the L o w e r Yangzi appears to have pro-
New research b y Chinese historians also challenges traditional conceptions
duced roughly as m u c h cotton cloth per capita in 1750 as the U K did cotton,
of comparadve e c o n o m i c g r o w t h . Referring t o t h epathbreaking w o r k o f L i
w o o l , linen and silk cloth c o m b i n e d in 1800 - plus an e n o r m o u s quantity of
B o z h o n g , Philip H u a n g notes that " t h e o u t s t a n d i n g representative o fthis n e w
silk.""' In addition, as Maddison demonstrates, the C h i n e s e G D P in absolute
academic tendency h a se v e n a r g u e d t h e o v e r a l l e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e
terms grew faster than that of E u r o p e throughout the eighteenth c e n t u r y dra-
Yangzi D e l t a i n t h e Q i n g exceeded that o f'early m o d e r n ' England."'" S i m i l a r l y
matically enlarging its share of w o r i d i n c o m e by 1820.
B i n W o n g h a s recently e m p h a s i z e d that t h e "specific c o n d i t i o n s associated with
E u r o p e a n p r o t o - i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n- e x p a n s i o n o f seasonal crafts, s h r i n k i n g f a r m The usual stereotype o f nineteenth-century e c o n o m i c history is that Asia

size, a n d g o o d m a r k e t i n g systems - m a y have b e e n e v e n m o r e w i d e s p r e a d i n stood still while the Industrial Revolution propelled Britain, followed by the
 294 LATE VICTORIAN HOLOCAUSTS THE ORIGINS OF T H E THIRD WORLD 295

Table 9.4
U n i t e d States a n de v e n t u a l l y t h erest o f W e s t e r n E u r o p e , d o w n t h ep a t h o f h i g h -
S t a n d i n g i n Place: C h i n a vs. E u r o p e
speed G N P g r o w t h . I na superficial sense, o f course, this is t r u e , a l t h o u g h t h e
Dollars per C a p i t a G D P / ( P o p u l a I i < ) n in Millions)
data gathered b y Bairoch a n d M a d d i s o n s h o w that Asia lost its preeminence i n
the w o r l d e c o n o m y later t h a n m o s t o f u s perhaps imagine. T h efuture T h i r d Western Europe China

W o r l d , d o m i n a t e d b y t h e h i g h l y developed c o m m e r c i a l a n d handicraft: econo- 1400 430 (43) 500 (74)

1820 1034 (122) 500 (342)
m i e s o f India a n d C h i n a , surrendered g r o u n d v e r y g r u d g i n g l y u n t i l 1850 ( w h e n
1950 4902 (412) 454 (547)
it still g e n e r a t e d 6 5 p e r c e n t o fg l o b a l G N P ) , b u t t h e n declined w i t h increasing
r a p i d i t y t h r o u g h t h e rest o f t h e n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y ( o n l y 3 8 p e r c e n t o f w o r l d Source: L u Aiguo, China and the Clchal Economy Since 1X40, 1 ielsinki 21)00, p. 56 (T.ible 4.1 as
G N P i n 1900 a n d2 2 percent i n 1960)."' derived from Maddison).

T a b l e 9.3
r e l e v a n t q u e s t i o n is n o t s o m u c h w h y t h e I n d u s t r i a l R e v o l u t i o n o c c u r r e d first
S h a r e s o f W o r l d M a n u f a c t u r i n g O u t p u t , 1750-1900
(Percent)
in England, Scotland a n d B e l g i u m , b u t w h y other advanced regions o f t h e eigh-
teenth-century w o r l d e c o n o m y failed t oadapt their handicraft manufactures t o
1750 1800 1830 1860 1880 1900
the n e w conditions o fproduction a n dcompetition i nt h enineteenth century
Europe 23.1 28.0 34.1 53.6 62.0 63.0
UK 1.9 4.3 9.5 19.9 22.9 18.5
As M a r x liked t o point out, t h e W h i g v i e w o fhistory deletes a great deal o f
Tropics 76.8 71.2 63.3 39.2 23.3 13.4 very b l o o d y business. T h e l o o m s o f India a n d C h i n a w e r e defeated n o tso m u c h
China 32.8 33.3 29.8 19.7 12.5 6.2 b y m a r k e t c o m p e t i t i o n as t h e y w e r e f o r c i b l y d i s m a n t l e d b y w a r , i n v a s i o n , o p i u m
India 24.5 19.7 17.6 8.6 2.8 1.7 a n d a L a n c a s h i r e - i m p o s e d s y s t e m o f o n e - w a y tariffs. ( A l r e a d y b y 1850, i m p o s e d
I n d i a n o p i u m i m p o r t s h a d s i p h o n e d 1 1 p e r c e n t o f C h i n a ' s m o n e y - s u p p l y a n d 13
Source: Derived from B. R. Tomlinson, "Economics: T h e Periphery," in Andrew Porter
(ed.). T h e Oxford History of the B r i t i s h E m p i r e : T h e Nineteenth Century, Oxford 1990, p. 69 p e r c e n t o f its silver s t o c k o u t o f t h e c o u n t r y ) " " W h a t e v e r t h e i n t e r n a l b r a k e s o n
(Table 3.8). r a p i d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h i n Asia, L a t i n A m e r i c a o r Africa, i t is i n d i s p u t a b l e t h a t

T h e deindustrialization o f Asia v i a t h e substitution o f Lancashire cotton f r o m about 1780 o r 1800 o n w a r d , every serious a t t e m p t b y a n o n - W e s t e r n society

i m p o r t s f o r locally manufactured textiles reached its climax o n l y i n t h e decades t o m o v e o v e r i n t o a fast lane o f d e v e l o p m e n t o r t o r e g u l a t e i t s t e r m s o f trade

after t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e C r y s t a l Palace. " U n t i l 1831," A l b e r t F e u e r w e r k e r w a s m e t b y a m i l i t a r y as w e l l as a n e c o n o m i c r e s p o n s e f r o m L o n d o n o r a c o m p e t -

points out, "Britain purchased m o r e 'nankeens' (cloth manufactured i n N a n k i n g i n g i m p e r i a l capital. Japan, p r o d d e d b y P e r r y ' s black ships, is t h e e x c e p t i o n t h a t

a n d o t h e r places i n t h e l o w e r Yangzi region) each year t h a n she sold B r i t i s h - m a n - proves t h e rule.

ufactured cloth t oChina.""' Britain exported 51 million yards o f cloth t oAsia i n
1831; 995 m i l l i o n i n 1871; 1413 m i l l i o n i n 1879; a n d 2000 m i l l i o n i n 1887."'
B u t w h y d i d A s i a stand i n place? T h e r o t e a n s w e r is because i tw a s w e i g h t e d
d o w n w i t h t h echains o f tradition a n d M a l t h u s i a n d e m o g r a p h y although this
did n o t prevent Q i n g China, w h o s e rate o fp o p u l a t i o n increase w a s about t h e
s a m e as E u r o p e ' s , f r o m e x p e r i e n c i n g e x t r a o r d i n a r y e c o n o m i c g r o w t h t h r o u g h -
o u t t h e eighteenth century A s Jack Goldstone recently argued, China's "stasis"
is a n " a n a c h r o n i s t i c i l l u s i o n t h a t c o m e [ s ] f r o m r e a d i n g h i s t o r y b a c k w a r d s . " " ^ T h e
T h e u s eo fforce t o configure a "liberal" w o r l d e c o n o m y (asM a r x a n d later
R o s a L u x e m b u r g argued) is w h a t P a x B r i t a n n i c a w a s really a b o u t . Palmerston
paved t h e w a y f o r C o b d e n . T h e V i c t o r i a n s , according t o B r i a n Bond's calcula-
t i o n s , r e s o r t e d t o g u n b o a t s o n a t least seventy-five d i f f e r e n t occasions."" T h e
s i m u l t a n e o u s British t r i u m p h s i nt h e M u t i n y a n dt h e " A r r o w " W a r i n 1858, a l o n g
w i t h Japan's y i e l d i n g t o P e r r y i n t h e s a m e year, w e r e t h e e p o c h a l v i c t o r i e s o v e r
A s i a n e c o n o m i c a u t o n o m y that m a d e a C o b d e n i t e w o r l d o ffree trade possible
in t h e second half o f t h e nineteenth century (Thailand h a d already conceded
296 LATE VICTORIAN HOLOCAUSTS 1 HE ORIGINS OF T H E TTiIRD WORLD 297

a 3 percent t a r i f f i n 1855).™ T f i e T a i p i n g R e v o l u t i o n - " m o r e r e v o l u t i o n a r y i n

its a i m s t h a n t h e M e i j i R e s t o r a t i o n , insisting o ng e n d e r e q u a l i t y a n d d e m o c r a t i z -
ing literacy" - w a s a gigantic attempt t o revise that verdict, a n d was, o f course,
defeated o n l y thanks t ot h eresources a n dmercenaries that Britain supplied t o t h e
embattled Qing."
T h i s isn o tt oc l a i m that t h e Industrial R e v o l u t i o n necessarily d e p e n d e d upon
t h e c o l o n i a l c o n q u e s t o re c o n o m i c s u b j u g a t i o n o fA s i a ; o nt h e c o n t r a r y , t h e slave
trade a n dt h eplantations o ft h eN e w W o r l d w e r e m u c h m o r e strategic streams o f
liquid capital a n d natural resources i nb o o s t i n g t h e i n d u s t r i a l t a k e - o f f i n Britain,
France a n d t h eU n i t e d States. A l t h o u g h R a l p h D a v i s h a s a r g u e d that t h e spoils
o f P l e s s y c o n t r i b u t e d d e c i s i v e l y t o t h es t a b i l i t y o f t h e G e o r g i a n o r d e r i n a n a g e
o f revolution, t h eEast India Company's turnover w a s small change compared
Arrows indicate flow of settlement
t o t h eg r e a t t r a n s - A t l a n t i c f l o w o f g o o d s a n d capital.'^ O n l y t h e N e t h e r l a n d s , i t
Figure 9.1 World System of Setdements, 1910 (£ Millions)
w o u l d appear, d e p e n d e d crucially u p o n A s i a n t r i b u t e - t h eprofits o f its b r u t a l
Source: S. Saul, Studies in British Overseas Trade, IH70-1914, Liverpool 1960, p. 58.
culturrstebel - i n financing i t se c o n o m i c r e c o v e r y a n d i n c i p i e n t i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n
b e t w e e n 1830 a n d 1850. i m p o r t s a n d overseas i n v e s t m e n t still d y n a m i z e d l o c a l g r o w t h f r o m A u s t r a l i a t o
Paradoxically, m o n s o o n Asia's m o s t i m p o r t a n t " m o m e n t " i n t h e Victorian D e n m a r k , t h e p o t e n t i a l "scissors" between U Kproductivity a n d consumption
w o r l d e c o n o m y w a sn o ta t t h eb e g i n n i n g o f t h e e p o c h , b u t t o w a r d s i t se n d . "The t h r e a t e n e d t h e e n t i r e s t r u c t u r e o f w o r l d t r a d e . I tw a si n t h i s c o n j u n c t u r e t h a t t h e
full value o f British rule, t h er e t u r n o n political investments first made i n the starving Indian a n d Chinese peasantries w e r e w h e e l e d i nas u n l i k e l y saviors. F o r
eighteenth century," w r i t e C a i n a n d H o p k i n s i ntheir influential history o f Brit- a generation they braced t h eentire s y s t e m o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l settlements, allow-
ish imperialism, "was n o t realised until t h esecond half o ft h enineteenth century ing England's continued financial supremacy t o t e m p o r a r i l y coexist w i t h its rela-
w h e n India b e c a m e a vital m a r k e t f o r Lancashire's c o t t o n g o o d s a n dw h e n other tive industrial decline. A sG i o v a n n i A r r i g h i emphasizes, " T h e large surplus i n t h e
specialised i n t e r e s t s , s u c h as j u t e m a n u f a c t u r e r s i n D u n d e e a n d steel p r o d u c e r s i n Indian balance o fpayments became t h epivot o f t h eenlarged reproduction o f
S h e f f i e l d , also g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e d t h e i r s t a k e i n t h es u b - c o n t i n e n t . T h e coerced Britain's w o r l d - s c a l e processes o fcapital a c c u m u l a t i o n a n d o ft h e C i t y ' s m a s t e r y
levies o f w e a l t h f r o m India a n dC h i n a w e r e n o t essential t o t h e rise o f B r i t i s h of world finance.""'
hegemony, b u tthey w e r e absolutely crucial i npostponing its decline. T h e operation o f this crucial circuit w a ssimple a n dingenious. Britain earned
h u g e a n n u a l surpluses i nh e r transactions w i t h India a n d C h i n a t h a t a l l o w e d h e r
T h e Late Victorian W o r l d E c o n o m y
t o sustain e q u a l l y large deficits w i t h t h e U n i t e d States, G e r m a n y a n dt h e w h i t e
D u r i n g t h ep r o t r a c t e d p e r i o d o f stop-and-go growth from 1873t o 1896 (what D o m i n i o n s . T r u e , Britain also enjoyed invisible earnings from shipping, insur-
e c o n o m i c historians m i s l e a d i n g l y used t o call t h e" G r e a t Depression"), t h e rate ance, b a n k i n g a n dforeign investment, b u t w i t h o u t Asia, w h i c h generated 73 p e r -
o f capital f o r m a t i o n a n d t h e g r o w t h o f productivity o fb o t h labor a n d capital i n c e n t o f B r i t i s h t r a d e c r e d i t i n 1910, A n t h o n y L a t h a m a r g u e s , B r i t a i n "presumably
Britain began a dramatic s l o w d o w n . ' " S h er e m a i n e d tied t oo l d products a n d tech- w o u l d have been forced t oa b a n d o n free trade," w h i l e h e rt r a d i n g partners would
nologies w h i l e b e h i n d their tariff barriers G e r m a n y a n dt h e U n i t e d States forged have been forced t o s l o w their o w n rates o findustrialization. T h eliberal w o r l d
leadership i n cutting-edge oil, chemical a n delectrical industries. Since British e c o n o m y m i g h t o t h e r w i s e have f r a g m e n t e d i n t o autarkic t r a d i n g blocs, as i t d i d
 LATH VICTORIAN HOLOCAUSTS THE ORIGINS OF T H E IHIRD WORLD 299
298

later d u r i n g t h e 1930s: classes o f L o n d o n a n dt h e H o m e C o u n t i e s as g o v e r n m e n t - g u a r a n t e e d interest

o n railroad debentures a n dI n d i a n bonds. "This c o n s t i t u e n c y o f s o u t h e r n inves-
T h e U n i t e d States a n d industrial E u r o p e , i n particular G e r m a n y , w e r e able t o c o n - tors, a n di t si n s t i t u t i o n a l representatives i nb a n k i n g a n ds h i p p i n g , fell i n r e a d i l y
tinue their policy o f tariff protection only because o f Britain's surplus w i t h Asia. b e h i n d t h e flag o f e m p i r e a n d g a v e f u l l s u p p o r t t o p o l i c i e s o f f r e e t r a d e a n d s o u n d
W i t h o u t that A s i a n surplus, B r i t a i n w o u l d n o l o n g e r have b e e n able t o subsidise
m o n e y I f British r u l e i n India w a shelpful t o British i n d u s t r y i tw a svital t o Bi'itish
t h e i r g r o w t h . S o w h a t e m e r g e s is t h a t A s i a i ng e n e r a l , b u t India a n d C h i n a i n par-
investment.""- A s H o b s b a w m points out, "not even t h e free-traders w i s h e d t o see
ticular, farf r o m being peripheral t o t h e e v o l u t i o n o ft h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l e c o n o m y at
this t i m e , w e r e i nfact crucial. W i t h o u t t h e surpluses w h i c h B r i t a i n w a s able t o e a r n this g o l d m i n e escape f r o m British control.""'
there, t h e w h o l e pattern o f international e c o n o m i c development w o u l d have been B u t h o w , i n a n a g e o f f a m i n e , c o u l d t h e s u b c o n t i n e n t aft'ord t o subsidize its
severely constrained. conquerer's suddenly precarious c o m m e r c i a l supremacy?'"' I na w o r d , i t couldn't,
and India w a sforced-marched i n t o t h e w o r l d m a r k e t , as w e shall see, b y r e v e n u e
India, o fcourse, w a s t h e greatest captive m a r k e t i nw o r i d history, rising from and irrigation policies that c o m p e l l e d farmers t o produce f o rforeign consump-
third t o first place a m o n g consumers o f British exports i n t h equarter century tion a t t h e p r i c e o f t h e i r o w n f o o d s e c u r i t y . This e x p o r t d r i v e w a s t h e h a l l m a r k
after 1870.'' "British rulers," writes M a r c e l l o d e Cecco i nhisstudy o ft h e Victo- o f t h e n e wpublic finance strategy introduced b yJames Wilson -founder o f The
rian gold standard system, "deliberately prevented Indians f r o m becoming skilled Economist and finance m e m b e r o f t h e C o u n c i l o f I n d i a - i n t h e first y e a r s o f d i r e c t
mechanics, refused contracts t o Indian firms which produced materials that rule. T h e o p e n i n g o ft h eSuez C a n a l a n dt h eg r o w t h o f s t e a m shipping drastically
could be g o tfrom England, a n dgenerally hindered t h eformation o fa n autono- reduced t h e transport costs o f b u l k c o m m o d i t y e x p o r t f r o m t h e subcontinent.
m o u s i n d u s t r i a l s t r u c t u r e i n India."™ T h a n k s t o a " g o v e r n m e n t s t o r e s p o l i c y t h a t As a result India's seaborne foreign trade increased m o r e t h a n eightfold b e t w e e n
reserved most government purchases t o British products a n db y t h e m o n o p o l y 1840 a n d 1886."' I naddition t o o p i u m c u l t i v a t i o n i n Bengal, n e w e x p o r t mono-
o f British agency houses i norganizing t h ei m p o r t - e x p o r t trade," India w a s forced cultures o fi n d i g o , c o t t o n , w h e a t a n d rice s u p p l a n t e d m i l l i o n s o facres o f subsis-
t o a b s o r b B r i t a i n ' s s u r p l u s o fi n c r e a s i n g l y o b s o l e s c e n t a n dnoncompetitive indus- tence crops. P a r t o fthis p r o d u c t i o n , o fcourse, w a s designed t o assure l o w g r a i n
trial e x p o r t s . " B y 1910 this i n c l u d e d two-fifths o ft h e U K ' s finished cotton goods prices i n t h e m e t r o p o l i s after t h e debacle o f E n g l i s h a g r i c u l t u r e i n t h e 1870s.
and three-fifths o f itsexports o f electrical products, railway equipment, books B e t w e e n 1875 a n d 1900, years that included t h ew o r s t f a m i n e s i n Indian h i s t o r y
and pharmaceuticals. A sa result, observes d e Cecco, Britain avoided "having t o annual grain exports increased f r o m 3 million t o 10million tons: a quantity that,
r e s t r u c t u r e h e r i n d u s t r y a n d w a s able t o i n v e s t h e r c a p i t a l i nt h e c o u n t r i e s where as R o m e s h D u t t p o i n t e d o u t , w a s e q u i v a l e n t t o t h e a n n u a l n u t r i t i o n o f 2 5 m i l l i o n
it gave t h e highest r e t u r n . " T h a n k s t o India, "British financiers were n o t com- p e o p l e . B yt h et u r n o f t h ec e n t u r y I n d i a w a s s u p p l y i n g n e a r i y a fifth o fBritain's
pelled t o 'tie' their loans t oBritish exports because t h eI m p e r i a l outlet w a s always wheat consumption as w e l l as a l l o w i n g L o n d o n g r a i n m e r c h a n t s t o speculate
available f o rB r i t i s h products.""" during shortages o nt h e Continent.""

T h e subcontinent w a sequally i m p o r t a n t t o t h erentier strata. T h e climate-det- But Indian agriculture's even more decisive contribution t o the imperial
o n a t e d crisis o fE n g l i s h a g r i c u l t u r e i n t h e late 1870s a n dt h e s u b s e q u e n t decline o f system, f r o m t h eEast India C o m p a n y ' s first illegal shipment o fo p i u m t o C a n t o n ,
f a r m o u t p u t p r o d u c e d a s h a r p fall i n a g r i c u l t u r a l rents i nE n g l a n d a n dW a l e s f r o m was theincome it earned i n t h e rest o f t h e E a s t e r n H e m i s p h e r e . Especially i n
£53 m i l l i o n i n 1 8 7 6 t o o n l y £37 m i l l i o n i n 1 9 1 0 . " ' I n d i a n a r m y a n d c i v i l service the 1880s a n d 1890s, t h e s u b c o n t i n e n t ' s permanent trade a n dcurrent account
sinecures w e r e accordingly f a m o u s f o rrescuing t h efortunes o f Britain's landed imbalances with Britain were financed b y i t s t r a d e s u r p l u s e s o f o p i u m , rice a n d
aristocracy B u t , as C a i n a n d H o p k i n s have a r g u e d i nm a k i n g t h e i r case f o r a hege- c o t t o n t h r e a d vis-a-vis t h erest o fAsia. I n d e e d E n g l a n d ' s s y s t e m a t i c e x p l o i t a t i o n
m o n i c " g e n t l e m a n l y capitalism," even bigger spoils w e r e r e t u r n e d t o t h e m i d d l e o f India d e p e n d e d i nlarge part u p o n India's c o m m e r c i a l exploitation o f China.
 THE ORIGINS OF THE THIRD WORLD 301
300 LATE VICTORIAN HOLOCAUSTS

Moreover, i n the later nineteenth century Britain herself started earning a sub-
This triangular trade between India, C h i n a and Britain had a strategic economic
stantial surplus i n the C h i n a trade for the first rime. T h e Second O p i u m W a r - or
importance in the Victorian world system that transcended other far larger f l o w s
" A r r o w " W a r - w h i c h increased British exports to C h i n a tenfold i n a single decade
of commerce. I f China generated o n l y a t i n y 1.3 p e r c e n t o f the total v o l u m e o f
was the turning point."' Britain's d o m i n a n t role in Chinese foreign trade, built
w o r l d trade i n the late n i n e t e e n t h century, it w a s nonetheless immensely valu-
b y V i c t o r i a n narcotraficantes w i t h gunboats, thus leveraged the w h o l e free-trade
able t o the British E m p i r e , w h i c h m o n o p o l i z e d fully 80 percent o f China's foreign
i m p e r i u m . "China," summarizes L a t h a m , "direcriy through Britain and indirectly
t r a d e i n t h e 186()s a n d 6 0 p e r c e n t as l a t e as 1 8 9 9 . ( B r i t i s h firms, which controlled
t h r o u g h India, enabled Britain t o sustain her deficits w i t h the U n i t e d States and
t w o - t h i r d s o f c o a s t a l s h i p p i n g , a l s o t o o k a n i m p o r t a n t .slice o f C h i n a ' s domestic
Europe o n w h i c h those countries depended for export stimulus and, in the case
commerce.)"
o f the U n i t e d States, capital i n f l o w t o s o m e degree.""'
F r o m the beginning o f the nineteenth century the East India C o m p a n y had
M o r e o v e r , C h i n a w a s f o r c e d at b a y o n e t p o i n t t o c e d e c o n t r o l o v e r tariffs t o
relied o n o p i u m exports f r o m Bengal to C a n t o n ( w h i c h in 1832 earned a net
the British inspector-general o f the Imperial M a r i t i m e Customs Administration,
profit "at least f o u r t e e n rimes the p r i m e cost") to finance the g r o w i n g deficits
a de facto i m p e r i a l proconsul w h o " c a m e to enjoy m o r e influence w i t h the For-
generated b y its expensive m i l i t a r y o p e r a t i o n s o n t h e s u b c o n t i n e n t . B y forcibly
eign Office than did the British M i n i s t e r in Peking.""' China's g r o w i n g trade defi-
enlarging the Chinese demand for the narcotic and, thus, the taxes collected on
cit b e c a m e intractable b y 1884. " N o t a single y e a r [ i n t h e rest o f the nineteenth
its e x p o r t , t h e t w o O p i u m W a r s ( 1 8 3 9 - 4 2 a n d 1856-58) and the punitive Treaty
c e n t u r y ] s h o w e d a surplus; t h e average a n n u a l deficit rose t o 26.6 m i l l i o n taels -
o f T i a n j i n (1858) r e v o l u t i o n i z e d the revenue base o f British India. " O p i u m , " says
roughly about 10 p e r c e n t o f the yearly total trade, but over 20 percent o f the
J o h n W o n g , "serviced the cost o f i m p e r i a l expansion i n India.""" O p i u m ship-
a n n u a l i m p o r t s o r j u s t u n d e r 30 p e r c e n t o f t h e a n n u a l exports.""' A m o n g its tra-
ments f r o m India reached a p e a k o f 8 7 , 0 0 0 che.sts i n 1879, t h e b i g g e s t d r u g trans-
ditional m o n o p o l i e s , tea was undercut i n the w o r i d m a r k e t by Indian p r o d u c t i o n
action in world history"" w h i l e Japanese silk c o m p e t e d w i t h the f a m o u s brands o f s o u t h e r n China. U n l i k e
T h i s e x t r a o r d i n a r i l y one-sided trade - i n 1868 I n d i a s u p p l i e d o v e r 35 percent of India, C h i n a was unable to finance a n y o f its "consistent and g r o w i n g overall
C h i n a ' s i m p o r t s b u t b o u g h t less t h a n 1 p e r c e n t o f its e x p o r t s - also s u b s i d i z e d the deficit" via trade surpluses w i t h a third party, n o r could it siphon compensatory
i m p o r t s o f U S c o r i o n that fueled the industrial r e v o l u t i o n i n Lancashire."" "The i n c o m e s , like Britain, f r o m its overseas colonies. A s a result, the Q i n g became
sale o f B e n g a l o p i u m t o C h i n a , " L a t h a m explains, " w a s a g r e a t l i n k i n t h e chain increasingly dependent u p o n foreign exchange remittances from 5 million Chi-
of commerce with w h i c h Britain had surrounded the worid. T h e chain worked nese emigrants i n southeast Asia, Oceania, Peru, the Caribbean and the United
like this: T h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m paid the U n i t e d States for c o t t o n by bills upon States."" A l t h o u g h t h e g o v e r n m e n t p u b l i c l y expressed its disgust w i t h t h e coolie
the Bank o f England. T h e Americans took some o f those bills t o C a n t o n and trade, it had little alternative b u t to collaborate i n its e x p a n s i o n . The so-called
swapped t h e m for tea. T h e C h i n e s e e x c h a n g e d the bills for Indian o p i u m . Some "yellow peril" that English writers w o u l d help to popularize was thus a direct
o f t h e b i l l s w e r e r e m i t t e d t o E n g l a n d as p r o f i t ; o t h e r s w e r e t a k e n t o I n d i a to consequence o f Asia's increasing subsidization o f faltering British hegemony
b u y a d d i t i o n a l c o m m o d i t i e s , as w e l l as t o f u r n i s h t h e m o n e y r e m i t t a n c e o f p r i - E m i g r a n t Chinese plantation w o r k e r s and railroad laborers, like Indian ryots, bal-
vate fortunes in India and the funds for carrying o n the Indian government at anced England's accounts o n their bent backs.
home.""'
W h e n , after 1880, the Chinese unofficially resorted to domestic cultivation o f
o p i u m (an eariy example o f "import-substitution") to reduce their trade deficit,
British India found a lucrative n e w advantage in the export o f factory-spun cotton
y a r n , w h i c h , as w e s h a l l see, h a d a d e v a s t a t i n g i m p a c t o n C h i n e s e f o l k t e x t i l e s .
302 LATE VICTORIAN HOLOCAUSTS THE ORIGINS OE T H E THIRD WORLD 303

Militarism and the G o l d Standard m o s t under threat, over t h e vast subsistence e c o n o m y o finland n o r t h China. A s
w e shall see later, t h e i r a b a n d o n m e n t o fi m p e r i a l mandates for flood control and
In addition t ob e i n g a t t h e losing e n d o ft h e i m p e r i a l i s m o ffree trade, t h e I n d i a n
canal navigation, essential t ot h e ecological security o f t h e 'i'ellow R i v e r plain, h a d
and Chinese economies were also throttled b y military expenditures a n dt h e
predictably catastrophic c o n s e q u e n c e s w h e n t h e E N S O cycle intensified i n t h e
Gold Standard. I n t h e Victorian era,n o other m a j o r countries were forced t o
later nineteenth century
d e v o t e such excessive p o r t i o n s o f t h e i r n a t i o n a l i n c o m e t o w a r India, already sad-
T h e t w o great nations o fAsia w e r e also v i c t i m i z e d b y t h en e w international
dled w i t h a huge public debt that included reimbursing t h estockholders o f t h e
monetary system established i n t h e 1870s. A l t h o u g h B r i t a i n a d o p t e d the Gold
E a s t I n d i a C o m p a n y a n dp a y i n g t h e costs o f t h e 1 8 5 7 r e v o l t , also h a dt o finance
Standard i n 1 8 2 1 ,t h e rest o f t h e w o r l d clung t o either a silver standard o r a
British military supremacy i nAsia. I naddition t o incessant proxy warfare with
bimetallic system. S u p p l y a n d d e m a n d f o rb o t h metals w e r e relatively stable with
Russia o nt h e A f g h a n frontier, o r d i n a r y Indians also paid f o r such far-flung adven-
only minor fluctuations i ntheir exchange ratio. After defeating France i n 1871,
t u r e s o ft h e I n d i a n A r m y as t h e s a c k i n g o fB e i j i n g ( 1 8 6 0 ) , t h e i n v a s i o n o f E t h i o p i a
h o w e v e r , G e r m a n y shifted t o g o l d a n dw a ss o o n f o l l o w e d b y t h e U n i t e d States,
(1868), t h e o c c u p a t i o n o fE g y p t (1882), a n d t h e conquest o ft h e S u d a n (1896-98).
t h e rest o f E u r o p e a n de v e n t u a l l y j a p a n . V a s t q u a n t i t i e s o f d e m o n e t a r i z e d silver
A s a result, m i l i t a r y e x p e n d i t u r e s w e r e n e v e r less t h a n 2 5 p e r c e n t (or 34 percent
flooded the w o r l d market, depreciating t h e currency o f India a n d China, t h e
i n c l u d i n g police) o f India's a n n u a l budget, a n dviceroys w e r e c o n s t a n d y search-
m a j o r nations outside t h e hegemonic gold bloc. (India began t om o v e t ot h e G o l d
i n g f o rcreative w a y s t o p u r l o i n m o n i e s f o rt h e a r m y f r o m other parts o ft h e
Standard after 1893.)
budget, even from the Famine Fund. Victorian England, o nthe other hand, never
A s J o h n M c G u i r e h a ss h o w n , t h eL o n d o n - b a s e d C h a r t e r e d B a n k o fI n d i a , A u s -
expended m o r e than 3 percent o fits n e tn a t i o n a l p r o d u c t o n its a r m y a n d navy,
tralia a n dChina, w h i c h financed m u c h o f t h e Indian trade, h a dt h esame kind
a serendipitous situation that considerably diminished domestic tensions over
o f quasi-state influence over Indian m o n e t a r y policy as t h e Manchester Cham-
imperialism.'*'
ber o f C o m m e r c e enjoyed over Indian agriculture. Keeping t h e rupee tied to
The Chinese case, o f course, w a seven m o r e extreme. F r o m 1850 t o 1873
silver h a d o b v i o u s a d v a n t a g e s f o r B r i t a i n , since t h ev a l u e o f its e x p o r t s (denomi-
C h i n a w a sa f l a m e w i t h social a n de t h n i c c o n f l i c t o n a scale t h a t u t t e r i y d w a r f e d
nated i ngold) t o India increased i n value w h i l e itsi m p o r t s ( d e n o m i n a t e d i n silver)
the contemporary U S W a r B e t w e e n t h e States. A s m o s t historians have recog-
d e c l i n e d i n v a l u e . " F r o m 1 8 7 3 t o 1 8 9 5 t h e v a l u e o f t h e r u p e e fell f r o m a n i n d e x
n i z e d , this c a r n a g e w a sl a r g e l y r o o t e d i n t h es t r u c t u r a l recession a n d i n c r e a s i n g
v a l u e i n g o l d o f 1 0 0 t o a n i n d e x v a l u e o f64."""' S i n c e India's " h o m e c h a r g e s " - t h e
insecurity o f existence t h a t f o l l o w e d t h e F i r s t O p i u m War. T h e fiscal effects o f
annual payments t o L o n d o n f o r pensions, border wars, public debt, t h e secretary
epic civil w a r , i n t u r n , w e r e e n o r m o u s . ' " T h e T a i p i n g revolutionaries a n d their
o f state's office, a n d s o o n - w e r e fixed i ng o l d , t h e d e v a l u a t i o n o ft h e s i l v e r r u p e e
T r i a d allies f o r several years c u t o f f B e i j i n g f r o m t h e revenues o f half a dozen
c o s t I n d i a n s a n a d d i t i o n a l £105 m i l l i o n b e t w e e n 1874a n d 1894.""
s o u t h e r n provinces. N i a n rebels s i m u l t a n e o u s l y disrupted a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n large
Likewise i t is e s t i m a t e d that t h e Gold Standard stole one-quarter o fthe
parts o f four n o r t h e r n provinces, w h i l e a M u s l i m revolt i n G a n s u a n d Shaanxi
purchasing p o w e r o f t h e silver o r n a m e n t s that constituted t h e savings o ft h e
g r e w i n t o a n i g h t m a r i s h a n di m m e n s e l y e x p e n s i v e w a r o f e t h n i c e x t e r m i n a t i o n .
c o m m o n people.'"' "While t h egold-denominated export price o f Indian grains
I n t h ew o r s t years, 7 5 p e r c e n t o ft h e i m p e r i a l b u d g e t w a s e x p e n d e d o nthemain-
r e m a i n e d stable t ot h e benefit o fBritish c o n s u m e r s , their d o m e s t i c cost i n rupees
tenance o fvast field armies ( w i t h o u t , however, leading t o real military modern-
was sharply inflated t o t h edetriment o ft h eIndian p o o r " " A sSir W i l l i a m W e d -
ization.)""* T h e s t a g g e r i n g costs o f t h e i r s u r v i v a l f o r c e d t h e Q i n g , i n P o m e r a n z ' s
derburn pointed o u t : "Indian peasants i n general h a d three safeguards against
phrase, t o "triage" state e x p e n d i t u r e b e t w e e n regions. T h e y u l t i m a t e l y chose t o
f a m i n e : ( a )d o m e s t i c hoards o f g r a i n ; ( b )f a m i l y o r n a m e n t s ; a n d ( c )credit with
favor t h e coastal cities, w h e r e c u s t o m s revenues w e r e s o a r i n g b u t sovereignty w a s
the village moneylender, w h o w a s also t h e g r a i n dealer B u t t o w a r d s t h eclose o f
 THE ORIGINS OE T H E THIRD WORLD 305
304 LATE VICTORIAN HOLOCAUSTS

I n C h i n a ' s case, t h e s h o c k o f t h e G o l d S t a n d a r d i n t h e late 1870s compounded

the n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y all w e r e lost b y t h e peasants."""
t h e m o n e t a r y c h a o s i n h e r i t e d f r o m t h e civil w a r s o f t h e 1850s a n d 1860s. P o w -
E c o n o m i c historians celebrate t h e irony o f impoverished Indians p r o v i d i n g
eriess t o stop t h e d r a i n o f silver t h a t t h e B r i t i s h h a d e n g i n e e r e d w i t h t h e i m p o -
a flow o f cheap credit t o Britain. W h i l e "at every harvest season," D e Cecco
sition o f t h e o p i u m trade, t h e Q i n g h a d also lost c o n t r o l o f their domestic
writes, " I n d i a n interest rates w o u l d shoot u p t o unbearable levels," B r i t i s h - o w n e d
c o p p e r supply i nt h e 1860s w h e n M u s l i m rebels seized t h e f a m o u s Y u n n a n m i n e s .
Presidency banks "received deposits f r o m t h eg o v e r n m e n t a n df r o m other public
Accordingly Beijing h a d t o finance itsstruggle for survival by issuing worthless
bodies w i t h o u t paying o n t h e m o n e anna o f interest." I naddition, " T h e reserves
paper m o n e y a n d systematically r e m i n t i n g copper cash i n t o higher denomina-
o n w h i c h t h e I n d i a n m o n e t a r y s y s t e m w a s b a s e d p r o v i d e d a l a r g e m a s s e de
tions. T h edebasement o f cash relative t o silver created particular havoc i nt h e
manoeuvre w h i c h British m o n e t a r y authorities could use t o supplement their o w n
Yellow River provinces where a n estimated 99 percent o f exchanges were i n
reserves a n dt o keep L o n d o n t h ecentre o fthe i n t e r n a t i o n a l m o n e t a r y s y s t e m . " " "
copper (versus o n l y 3 0 percent i n t h e Yangzi Delta).'"* Since land revenues were
Krishnendu R a yexpands this point: " B y preventing India f r o m t r a n s f o r m i n g its
still assessed i n silver, t h e c o n t i n u i n g h i g h p r i c e o f t h e m e t a l - as M a r y W r i g h t h a s
a n n u a l surpluses i n t o g o l d reserves t h e India Office c o n t r i b u t e d t o w a r d s keeping
emphasized - undercut t h esubsequent attempt o ft h eT o n g z h i restorationists i n
Brirish interest rates l o w . E n g l i s h banks w e r e able t o b o r r o w f r o m t h eIndia Office
t h e late 1860s t o r e c l a i m t h e l o y a l t y o f t h e peasantry t h r o u g h a n a m e l i o r a t i o n o f
at 2 p e r cent a n d reinvest o n t h e L o n d o n m a r k e t at 3 p e r cent.""'" E v e n m o r e
the tax burden.'""
importantly, m o n e t a r y policy was used, i n D i e t e r R o t h e r m u n d ' s phrase, " t o flush
T h e conversion o f w o r i d trade t o t h euniversal G o l d Standard aggravated b o t h
o u t I n d i a ' s p r o d u c e . " U n t i l fiscal e x i g e n c i e s f o r c e d a p a r t i a l d e m o n e t a r i z a t i o n o f
C h i n a ' s e x t e r n a l a n d i n t e r n a l e x c h a n g e crises. F i r s t o f a l l , t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l price
silver i n 1893, inflation greatly abetted t h e British c a m p a i g n t o recruit peasants
o f silver p l u m m e t e d : " W i t h i n a generation, t h e tael h a d lost neariy two-thirds
to t h ep r o d u c t i o n o f export crops like wheat, indigo, o p i u m and j u t e that helped
o f its exchange v a l u e . " " " S o m e m e r c a n t i l e elites m a y have benefited f r o m t h e
balance t h e Empire's accounts.
advantage that cheaper i n t e r n a t i o n a l prices gave their exports, particularly tea
and Shanghai cotton goods. But "imports f r o m gold-standard countries became
A t a n earlier t i m e t h e D u t c h h a d adopted a deliberate m e t h o d o f extracting cash
m o r e expensive, w h i c h was particulariy serious for railway development. Foreign
crops f r o m Java b y circulating a large a m o u n t o f w o r t h l e s s copper coins. I n India
the British did n o t have t o d o this deliberately because b y simply keeping t h e m i n t s i n v e s t m e n t i n C h i n a w a s also discouraged, for fear o f r e p a y m e n t i n a depreciated
o p e n t o t h e free f l o w o f depreciating silver t h e y g o t practically t h e s a m e result. standard.""'
The management o f credit facilitated t h e extraction o f cash crops. B y advancing Yet precisely because China's g r o w i n g c o m m e r c i a l debt w a s financed bythe
m o n e y t o t h e peasants w h o g r e w cash crops for export t h e British a n d their agents
o u t f l o w o r " d e h o a r d i n g " o f silver, silver's i n t e r n a l v a l u e actually rose vis-a-vis t h e
preempted t h e productive capacity o f India's agriculture. T h e area u n d e r cash
crops expanded even at times w h e n food grain for h o m e c o n s u m p t i o n w o u l d have
copper coinage that circulated i n village economies. T h e country's shortage o f
fetched a b e t t e r price. W h a t w a s g r o w n f o r e x p o r t h a s t o b e r a t e d as a cash c r o p i n gold i n international trade (parriy compensated, as w e h a v e seen, b y t h e r e l u c -
this context. T h e depreciation o f t h e currency a n d t h e p r e e m p t i o n o f t h e produc- t a n t e x p o r t o f c o o l i e l a b o r ) w a s m i r r o r e d b y t h e c o n t i n u i n g d e p r e c i a t i o n o f cash,
t i v e c a p a c i t y o f v a s t p a r t s o f t h e c o u n t r y c o m b i n e d s o as t o a c h i e v e t h e m i r a c l e t h a t especially i n t h e n o r t h . T h e r e t h e c o m m o n people w e r e also o u t r a g e d that i n
I n d i a c o u l d e x p o r t p r o d u c e a t ".stable" e x p o r t prices e v e n a t a t i m e w h e n severe f a m -
o r d e r t o p a y t h e i r taxes they h a d t o convert t h e i r copper t o silver at m u c h h i g h e r
ines t o r m e n t e d t h e country. B y absorbing silver a n d e x p o r t i n g w h e a t at t h e lowest
exchange rates t h a n t h e privileged gentry. A principal grievance o f t h e Taipings
p r i c e I n d i a s e r v e d as t h e b u f f e r a t t h e b a s e o f t h e w o r l d e c o n o m y o f t h e late n i n e -
teenth century"" i n 1851, m o n e t a r y instability also helped fuel t h e B o x e r R e b e l l i o n neariy a h a l f
century later'"
 LATH VICTORIAN HOLOCAUSTS THL ORIGINS OF T H L THIRD WORLD 3 07
306

T h e M y t h of 'Mahhusia' o f world population declined from 1 7 5 0 t o 1 9 0 0 from 2 3 p e r c e n t t o 2 0 p e r c e n t )

while Europe w a srising f r o m 17percent t o21 percent.'"
Forcibly i m p o s e d trade deficits, e x p o r t drives t h a t d i m i n i s h e d f o o d security over-
M o d e r n case-studies c o r r o b o r a t e t h e p o s i t i o n o f nationalist critics o f t h e Raj,
taxation a n dpredatory merchant capital, foreign control o f k e y revenues a n d
like G .V j o s h i n 1890, w h o a r g u e d t h a t "the p r o b l e m o fI n d i a lies n o ts o m u c h i n
developmental resources, chronic i m p e r i a l a n dcivil warfare, a G o l d Standard
t h e fact o fa n alleged o v e r p o p u l a t i o n as i n t h e a d m i t t e d a n d p a t e n t evil o f u n d e r -
that picked t h epockets o f A s i a n peasants: t h e s e w e r e k e ym o d a l i t i e s through
production." (Josh estimated that fully half o f t h en e tsavings o f India w a s confis-
w h i c h t h eb u r d e n o f "structural adjustment" i nt h elate V i c t o r i a n w o r i d economy
cated as revenue.)"" I f cultivators i nt h e D e c c a n a n do t h e r d r o u g h t - p r o n e regions
was shifted f r o m Europe a n d N o r t h A m e r i c a t o agriculturalists i n n e w l y m i n t e d
w e r e relentlessly pushed o n t o m a r g i n a l lands w h e r e productivity w a s l o w a n d
"peripherics." [kit surely w e m u s t also concede that d e m o g r a p h y - especially i n
c r o p f a i l u r e s w e r e i n e v i t a b l e , t h ec u l p r i t w a s less l i k e l y o v e r p o p u l a t i o n t h a n t h e
India a n d C h i n a w h e r e partible systems o finheritance w e r e t h er u l e ~ played a
"British l a n d revenue s y s t e m itself" T h i s is certainly t h e finding o fBagchi, w h o ,
m a j o r role i nu n d e r m i n i n g food security i n t h enineteenth century
after a careful i n q u i s i t i o n o fc o l o n i a l a g r i c u l t u r a l statistics, a r g u e s t h a t t h e reve-
M a l t h u s is still a p o t e n t figure a m o n g a t least t h e older g e n e r a t i o n o f eco-
n u e collectors' inflexible claims o na h i g h "average" harvest " c o m p e l l e d t h e peas-
n o m i c h i s t o r i a n s . P r i n c e t o n ' s "W. A r t h u r L e w i s , o n e o f t h e l e a d i n g authoriries
ants t o c u l t i v a t e m a r g i n a l lands, a n dalso f o r c e d t h e m t o ' m i n e ' t h e i r l a n d i n a
o n t h en i n e t e e n t h - c e n t u r y worid economy a s s u m e d as a m a t t e r o fcourse i n a n
s i t u a t i o n w h e r e m o s t o f t h e m h a d f e w investible resources left t oi m p r o v e its p r o -
i n f l u e n t i a l 1978 s t u d y t h a t t h e u n d e r i y i n g cause o ff a m i n e i nV i c t o r i a n I n d i a w a s
ductivity."'"
n o t t h e "drain o f w e a l t h " t o E n g l a n d as alleged b y c o n t e m p o r a r y critics, b u t
Likewise contemporary scholars are dramatically revising t h e traditional
"a large p o p u l a t i o n t h a t c o n t i n u e d t o live a t subsistence level o n i n a d e q u a t e l y
i m a g e o flate i m p e r i a l C h i n a as a " d e m o g r a p h i c p r o f l i g a t e " : t h eh o p e l e s s " M a l -
w a t e r e d m a r g i n a l lands, w i t h o u t a profitable cash crop."'" Similarly, t h e histori-
thusia" depicted b ygenerations o fe c o n o m i c theorists a n ddemographers."" Until
o g r a p h y o flate i m p e r i a l C h i n a h a sb e e n h a u n t e d b y t h e s p e c t r e o f " a g r i c u l t u r a l
recently, m o s t scholars have accepted fragmentary evidence fora n eighteenth-
i n v o l u t i o n " a n dt h eso-called " h i g h - l e v e l e q u i l i b r i u m t r a p " - b o t h euphemisms
century population explosion that doubled o r even tripled China's 1700 popu-
for h o w t h e p r e s u m e d population explosion o ft h e eighteenth century squeezed
lation. D e m o g r a p h i c reductionists, however, have always h a d difficulty explain-
arable l a n d t o t h e t h r e s h o l d o fc h r o n i c f a m i n e .
ing h o wpopulation g r o w t h that w a s clearly s o "Boserupian" i nt h e eighteenth
R e c e n t s c h o l a r s h i p offers a m o r e c o m p l e x p i c t u r e o ft h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between
c e n t u r y ( p r o m o t i n g a d y n a m i c expansion o fproductive forces) c o u l d abruptly
demography a n d subsistence i n Asia. ( M a l t h u s is n o ta n issue i n t h e cases o f
b e c o m e sog r i m l y M a l t h u s i a n i nt h enineteenth (blocking all advances i n produc-
Brazil a n dAfrica w h e r e land/population ratios were high a n dlabor shortages
tivity). (Esther Boserup, o fcourse, inverted M a l t h u s i na f a m o u s 1 9 6 5study t o
chronic until at least t h e m i d d l e o f t h e t w e n t i e t h c e n t u r y ) A s C h a r l e s w o r t h
argue that population increase w a sreally t h e m o t o r , n o tt h e brake, o f e c o n o m i c
points out, " I t isindisputable that l a n d was, i n absolute t e r m s , hardly u n d e r great
a n d social progress.)"" M o r e o v e r , there islittle evidence f o r a n yincrease i n d e m o -
pressure f r o m population i nt h e Deccan o ft h e eariy British period." T h r o u g h t h e
g r a p h i c p r e s s u r e after t h e e n d o f t h e Q i n g G o l d e n A g e . A sM a d d i s o n p o i n t s o u t ,
1840s, a t least, " o n l y a b o u t h a l f o f t h e c u l t i v a b l e l a n d i n m o s t D e c c a n districts,
C h i n a ' s p o p u l a t i o n w a s n o h i g h e r i n 1890 t h a n i n 1820 w h i l e p e rcapita income
according t o formal British estimates, w a s being tilled."'" A l t h o u g h population
was significantly l o w e r " "
g r e w rapidly i nt h e 1850s a n d 1860s, partly as a result o ft h e c o t t o n b o o m , t h e
P o m e r a n z , w h o h a s e x a m i n e d this issue i nt h e context o f n o r t h C h i n a , agrees
demographic m o m e n t u m c a m e t o a n abrupt halt w i t h t h e catastrophe o f 1876.
that population pressures alone " d on o texplain w h y ecological problems greatly
In I n d i a as a w h o l e d u r i n g t h e h a l f c e n t u r y b e t w e e n 1870 a n d 1920 t h e r e w a s o n l y
worsened after t h e mid-nineteenth c e n t u r y " H i ss t u d y area, t h e H u a n g - Y u n
a single d e c a d e (1880s) o f s i g n i f i c a n t p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h . ( S o u t h Asia's p e r c e n t a g e
(comprising parts o fShandong, Zhili a n d H e n a n a r o u n d t h e intersection o f t h e
308 LATli VICTORIAN 11 O L O C A U SIS THE ORIGINS OF THE THIRD WORLD 3 09

G r a n d Canal a n d t h e Yellow River), "after t h e wars, floods and droughts o fthe M o r e o v e r , p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h ofi:en seems t o have been concentrated i nt h e poor-
1 8 5 0 - 8 0 p e r i o d ... d i d n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y e x c e e d its 1840s p o p u l a t i o n until after est a n d m o s t e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y v u l n e r a b l e areas. Local p o p u l a t i o n - r e s o u r c e rela-
1949"!"' M o r e o v e r , t h e vast h u m a n losses o f t h e T a i p i n g r e v o l u t i o n created a tionships will thus figure p r o m i n e n t l y i n subsequent discussions o f subsistence
demographic vacuum i n t h e m i d d l e a n d l o w e r Yangzi that w a s refilled after crisis a n d disaster v u l n e r a b i l i t y i nn o r t h C h i n a . B u t p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h w a s h a r d l y
1864 b y millions o f i m m i g r a n t s f r o m congested provinces, including H o n a n a n d the self acting, a r c h i m e d e a n lever o f h i s t o r y i m a g i n e d b y so m a n y e c o n o m i c his-
Kiangsu.'" Thereafter famine a n depidemic, followed b y w a r a n drevolution, kept torians.
p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h i nn o r t h C h i n a at a m i n i m u m until 1948.
T h e Irrigation Deficit
Recently some experts o n Q i n g China, led b y Princeton's F.'W. M o t e a n d
M a r t i n Heijdra, have frontallychallenged t h eorthodox v i e w o fa population dou- As P o m e r a n z points o u t ,E u r o p e faced even m o r e severe d e m o g r a p h i c a n d eco-
bling o r even tripling during the eighteenth century T h e y advance compelling logical pressures at t h e beginning o f t h e nineteenth century b u t w a s able t o
a r g u m e n t s f o ra late M i n g p o p u l a t i o n o f 2 5 0t o 2 7 5 million, rather than t h e 1 5 0 resolve t h e m w i t h t h e help o f N e w W o r i d natural resources, massive colonial
million conventionally adopted as a baseline circa 1700f o r Q i n g demography emigration and, eventually urban industrialization."'The relevant question, i n
T h i s implies a n a n n u a l g r o w t h rate o f 0.3 percent ( t h e s a m e as I n d i a a n d less o t h e r w o r d s , is less p o p u l a t i o n p r e s s u r e p e r se t h a n w h y W e s t e r n E u r o p e w a s able
t h a n t h e w o r i d average) rather than t h e 0.6 t o 0.9percent claimed i n m o s t histo- to escape itsincipient "high-level e q u i l i b r i u m trap" a n d Q i n g C h i n a wasn't.
ries."' Moderate, rather than exponential, population g r o w t h during the Golden I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e factors a l r e a d y h i g h l i g h t e d , t h e r e is a n o t h e r v a r i a b l e t h a t is
Age w o u l d perforce revise n e o - M a l t h u s i a n explanations o f China's subsequent frequently missing f r o m historical discussions o f "underdevelopment." I f (accord-
n i n e t e e n t h - c e n t u r y crises. A s M o t e c a r e f u l l y explains: ing t o P o m e r a n z ) t h e chief "ecological botdeneck" toeconomic growth i n Atian-
tic E u r o p e a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y w a s t h e i n e l a s t i c s u p p l y o f
A m a j o r i m p l i c a t i o n o f t h e p r o p o s e d o u t l i n e o f Q i n g p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h is t h a t
fiber crops a n d timber, i nboth India a n d China itw a swater A s Patrick O'Brien
it d i s c r e d i t s w h a t u s u a l l y h a s b e e n t a k e n as t h e m o s t s i g n i f i c a n t d e m o g r a p h i c fact
observes, " u p t o half o f t h e populations o f Asia, Africa, a n d S o u t h A m e r i c a m a y
a b o u t Q i n g : t h e idea o f a " p o p u l a l i o n explosion " i n t h e eighteenth c e n t u r y T h a t
have subsisted o n land w h e r e water supply constituted t h e k e y constraint upon
s u p p o s e d p h e n o m e n o n is g i v e n h i g h e x p l a n a t o r y v a l u e i n r e l a t i o n t o m a n y social
a n d p o l i t i c a l c o n t e x t s . I f h o w e v e r , t h e p o p u l a t i o n d i d not s u d d e n l y i n c r e a s e during increasing agricultural output."'^" T h i s w a s ,o f course, c o m m o n sense t o "Ori-
that c e n t u r y b u t started f r o m a h i g h e r plateau a n d g r e w m o d e r a t e l y m a n y social ental despots," a n d a m a j o r achievement o f t h e Q i n g G o l d e n A g e , as w e l l as o f
issues m u s t t h e n b e o t h e r w i s e e x p l a i n e d . F o r e x a m p l e , calculations u s i n g t h o s e ear- the M o g u l zenith, h a d been t h e high sustained levels o f state a n d village-level
lier p o p u l a t i o n figures i n conjunction w i t h equally suspect M i n g a n d Q i n g figures
investment i n flood control a n d irrigation. A sw e shall see i n detail, however, t h e
for l a n d i n c u l t i v a t i o n s h o w a disastrous fall i n t h e r a t i o o f c u l t i v a t e d l a n d t o con-
nineteenth century w a s characterized b y t h e near-collapse o f hydraulic improve-
s u m i n g p o p u l a t i o n ; t h e i m p l i c i t crisis i n t h a t r a t i o o f p r o d u c t i v e l a n d l o p o p u l a t i o n
m u s t be r e e x a m i n e d . Related v i e w s a b o u t t h e " o p t i m u m p o p u l a t i o n " o fC h i n a , per- ment.

h a p s i n i t s e l f a su.spect n o t i o n , a l s o m u s t b e reconsidered...."'* "Traditional water-harvesting systems," emphasizes D a v i d H a r d i m a n , "disin-

tegrated a n d disappeared i n large parts o f India d u r i n g t h e eariy colonial period
Rejecting demographic deterministn, o f course, does n o t m e a n that popu- [and] h i g h rates o f land-tax left n o s u r p l u s f o rt h e effective m a i n t e n a n c e o f irri-
lation regimes played n o role i n China's nineteenth-century crisis. O n t h e c o n - gation systems."'" Despite t h e later development o f the celebrated canal colo-
t r a r y i t is clear that t h e v e r y success o f agricultural intensification i n t h e G o l d e n nies o f t h e Punjab, irrigation i n British India lagged behind expansion o f agri-
Age encouraged excessive s u b d i v i s i o n o f l a n d i n m a n y r e g i o n s as w e l l as e c o l o g i - culture until Independence. I n China, meanwhile, "irrigation,water storage a n d
cally destructive reclamations o f previously uncultivated highlands a n d wetlands. control, a n d g r a i n storage facilities w e r e n o t extended o r i m p r o v e d b e y o n d their
_i 1 0 LATE VICTORIAN HOLOCAUSTS

eighteenth-century levels.""" I n d e e d i r r i g a t e d acreage s h r a n k f r o m its Q i n g h i g h

point o f29.4 percent o ft h e arable i n 1820 t o o n l y 18.5 p e r c e n t o fthe arable i n
1952. I nBrazil's d r o u g h t - s t r i c k e n N o r d e s t e , there w a s n o state s u p p o r t whatso-
ever for irrigation."'
T h i s irrigation deficit undergirded t h eM a l t h u s i a n illusion o f helpless "invo-

Ten
l u t i o n " i n C h i n a a n de l s e w h e r e . ' W h e t h e r as a result o fp o p u l a t i o n pressure o r
displacement b y export crops, subsistence i n all three lands w a sp u s h e d onto
drier, o f t e n less p r o d u c t i v e soils, h i g h l y v u l n e r a b l e t o E N S O cycles, w i t h o u t par-
allel i m p r o v e m e n t s i ni r r i g a t i o n , d r a i n a g e o rreforestation t o ensure sustainabil-
ity M o d e r n irrigation-based revolutions i nagricultural p r o d u c d v i t y i n n o r t h e r n
India: The Modernization of Poverty
India a n d n o r t h C h i n a (since 1960), as w e l l as i nt h eN o r d e s t e (since 1980), o n l y
d r a m a t i z e t h e c e n t r a l i t y o fw a t e r resources and the political capacities t o ensure
their development t oany discussion o f "carrying capacity" o r"demographic ceil-
Let us g o t o t h e root o f t h e matter L e tu s , o r those o f
ings."
us w h o can d o so, m a r k the c o n d i t i o n o f the I n d i a n c u l t i v a t o r
More broadly i t is clear that a n ya t t e m p t t o elucidate t h esocial origins o f
i n h i s h o m e , a n d find o u t w h a t c a u s e s i m p o v e r i s h h i m a n d
late "Victorian subsistence crises m u s t i n t e g r a l l y i n c o r p o r a t e t h erelevant histo- m a k e h i m u n a b l e t o save. T h e r e a s o n is n o t a w a n t o f f r u g a l i t y ,
ries o f c o m m o n p r o p e r t y resources (watersheds, aquifers, forests and pastures) o r o f sobriety, o ro f prudence. T h e I n d i a n peasant is the m o s t
and social overhead capital (irrigationand flood control systems, granaries, canals sober, the m o s t frugal, and the m o s t p r u d e n t peasant o n t h e
a n d r o a d s ) . I n t h e c a s e - s t u d y c h a p t e r s t h a t f o l l o w , I a r g u e t h a t ecological poverty - face o f t h e e a r t h .

d e f i n e d as t h e d e p l e t i o n o rloss o f e n t i t l e m e n t t ot h e n a t u r a l resource base o f tra- - Romesh Chunder Dutt

d i t i o n a l a g r i c u l t u r e - c o n s t i t u t e d a c a u s a l t r i a n g l e w i t h i n c r e a s i n g household pov-
erty a n d slate decapacitation i nexplaining b o t h the emergence o fa " t h i r d w o r l d "
a n d its v u l n e r a b i l i t y t oe x t r e m e c l i m a t e events.""
I f t h e h i s t o r y o f B r i t i s h r u l e i n I n d i a w e r e t o b e c o n d e n s e d i n t o a single fact, i t
is t h i s : t h e r e w a s n o i n c r e a s e i n India's p e rcapita income from 1757 t o 1947.'
I n d e e d , i nt h e last h a l f o ft h e n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y , i n c o m e p r o b a b l y d e c l i n e d b y
m o r e t h a n 5 0percent.^ T h e r e w a s n o e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t a t all i nt h e usual
sense o fthe t e r m . "Static overall yield figures," T o m l i n s o n adds, "do n o t mean
t h a t o u t p u t e v e r y w h e r e w a ss t a g n a n t , b u trather that progressive forces were
always cancelled o u tb y regressive ones, a n dthat periods o fdynamism were
interspersed with periods o f enervation."' Celebrated cash-crop b o o m s went
h a n d i n h a n d w i t h declining agrarian p r o d u c t i v i t y and f o o d security. I n m u c h o f
t h e c o t t o n - g r o w i n g s o u t h e r n D e c c a n , f o r i n s t a n c e , p e racre y i e l d s o ff o o d crops
at the e n d o fthe R a j h a d fallen t o o n l y t w o - t h i r d s t o o n e - h a l f the average level