Advanced Placement Statistics

Randomness and Probability Models

Mathematics Learning Objectives:
-Students will be able to determine the probability of a random phenomenon.
-Students will be able to construct and read a probability model.
-Students will be able to determine the amount of outcomes in a sample space through the use
of the multiplication rule.

Language Objectives:
-Students will be able to describe a “random” event.
-Students will be able to identify the sample space.
-Students will be able to explain the difference between events with and without replacement.
-Students will be able to define probability rules.

Essential Question:
What is a probability and how do we represent it?

State and College Board Mathematics Standards:

State 3.05. Apply concepts of probability to solve problems.
College Board III. Explore random phenomena using probability and simulation.

Common Core State Mathematical Practice Standards:

Model with Mathematics
Look for and make use of structure.

Materials:
-Probability Game Props: a deck of cards, a die, a solo cup, a pop up frisbee game, a twenty
sided die, coins and two dice.
-Post it notes.
-6.1-6.2 Powerpoint Slides
-6.1-6.2 Guided Notes
-The Practice of Statistics Textbook.

Notes to the reader:

Students have just completed a unit on designing experiments. Before this lesson, students
should have prior experience with probability.

Time: 86 minutes
Time What is the teacher doing? What are students doing?

7 Probability in Games: Probability in Games:

Mins Before class begins, place different game Students should be sitting in groups
props at each desk. of 3-5 and be ready to begin class.

“As a group, I want you to come up with a Once students have been given
game that you can play with the items on your instructions, they should begin
desk. Play this game 10 times and record your creating their game and start
results your whiteboards.” collecting data of their game play.
 During group work, teacher should circulate
room and answer any questions that students
may have.
10 Discussion- Probability in Games:
Mins After students have completed or made
substantial progress, ask groups to present
their games and findings.
Teacher should help facilitate a discussion as
each group presents.
Questions to Ask:
What are the odds of you winning? How do
you know? Why do you not know? Does
superstition affect probability? Does the
amount of practice effect probability?
Reason: Some props have known probabilities
while others are unknown and may be
dependent on other factors such as ability. For
those that have unknown probabilities,
practicing may help to improve our probability
of winning, yet wearing or favorite jersey will
not.
7 Coin Flip Activity:
Mins Start activity by asking students “What is the
probability of getting a heads when I flip a
coin?”
While posing this question, draw a scale on
the board from 0 to 1, increasing by a decimal
of .1.
“I want each of you to flip a coin 10 times and
place a post it note on the scale on the board
according to how many heads you get when
during your trial.”
Place post it notes on the ledge of the board
so that students can take one easily.
10 Coin Flip Discussion:
Potential Misconception:
-Students may not have a great deal
of knowledge on a playing cards.
 How many cards are in a
deck?
 How many cards are in a
suit?
Discussion- Probability in Games:
Ask students to present their game
and ask them the probability of
winning their game.
Other students in the classroom
should be paying attention and
adding insight to the conversation as
needed.
Coin Flip Activity:
Students should be listening to
teacher, adding to discussion, and
asking any questions they may have
about the task.
Each student should work
independently as they flip a coin 10
times. Once students have finished,
they should place their results
(percent of heads) on the scale on
the board with a post it note.
Coin Flip Discussion:
Mins
Questions to Ask:
-What did we say the probability of getting a
heads would be?
-Why were some of our results away from the
probability of .5?
-What would we get if we combined all of your
results? Would we get closer or further away
from .5?
“Let's find out, add together the entire class’s
counts of heads and find the probability.
What did we find?
Does our probability get closer to .5 than
individual trials? ”
Reasoning: The probability of .5, is the
probability of getting a heads in the long run.
This is why there is variation when we have
small samples of size ten. As we increase the
size of our sample, we get closer to the true
probability of .5.
Take this time to transition to the notes for
6.1/6.2.
10 Notes:
Mins Slide 2: Objectives
Slides 3-4: Randomness
“Does this look familiar to what we just found
after flipping the coins? This is what we call a
‘random’ phenomenon.”
Slide 5: Probability
“Again, when looking at the coin example, the
probability of the event, is the proportion of
times the outcome would occur in a long
series. Example: the total number of heads
over the total amount of coin flips. Our long
term frequency.”
Slides 6-7: Probability Models
“Probability models help us to see the
outcomes of a random event. It has two parts,
a list of outcomes and a probability for each
outcome.
Students should be paying attention
and adding to the discussion.
Students responses may include:
 The probability of getting a
heads in .5.
 The coin is weighted.
 Each person may flip the coin
differently.
 Each sample of ten is too
small to get an accurate
probability.
Each student should begin adding
the results from their classmates and
get the total class percentage.
Students should add to discussion
and ask any questions they may
have.
Notes:
Students should be prepared with
their study guides and pencils to take
notes. Students should ask any
questions as they arise.
Potential Questions:
-Can we have probability models for
events where the probability
changes? Such as the opening task
with the frisbee or cup game.
 In order to make a probability we need to
make sure that we are defining our sample
space made up of events.”
10 Your Turn:
Mins Slide 8:
“I want you to work in your groups and think
about the following questions. As you come up
with answers, record them on your
whiteboard.”
Allow students to think critically about the
question before giving much insight. If
needed, instruct students to list all possible
results.
If student students are struggling with getting
all 36 combinations, give each group two
colored dice.
Once students have worked on material, post
the 36 different combinations and review the
answers to the questions.
Questions to Ask:
-Are lucky 7’s really lucky? What is the
probability of getting double 7’s?
-Why does this combination get a high payout
at a casino?
7 Notes:
Mins Slide 9: Tree Diagrams
“Tree diagrams help us to see our outcomes
easier. Looking at our two diagrams, what do
you think they represent?”
Slide 10: Multiplication Rule
“Thinking about our example with a coin and a
dice, how many outcomes would we have?”
Does this match our tree diagram from the
previous slide?
10 Your Turn:
Mins Slide 11-12:
“Work in your groups and begin thinking about
this problem. What is your sample space?
What would your outcomes be?
Your Turn:
Slide 8:
Students should work together in
their groups to answer questions on
their white boards.
Potential Misconceptions:
-Students may not think of dice as
two units and only list (1, 4) and (2,3)
instead of (1,4) (4,1) (2,3) and (3,4).
Students should ask any questions
they still have about the task.
Potential questions:
-Why do you multiply 6 by 6?
Notes:
Students should be paying attention
to instruction and asking any
questions as they arise.
Potential Questions:
-What is the benefit of using the the
multiplication rule as opposed to the
tree diagram?
Your Turn:
Slide 11:
Students should talk with their group
members and think about how many
combinations they would have as
well as begin listing out options on
the whiteboard.
 What would your probability distribution look
like?”
Teacher should walk around the room and
facilitate discussion between students as
needed.
Questions to Ask:
-What does the probability distribution look
like?
-If I flip this table upside down, what is the
shape of the distribution?
Students should be asking questions
of one another.
Potential Questions:
-Does the order of the coins matter?
-Why would you not label out the
decimals?
- Why wouldn’t you put numerical
values for the amount of time a
patient lives after being in the
hospital?

Reasoning: The distribution is perfectly

symmetrical because the probability of getting
a heads is .5.

Slide 13:
“What would the sample space be?

Does this make sense, with numbers such as .

000001 and .999999?”

Slide 14:
Put textbook problem on document camera
and have students work out problems on the
whiteboard. Once students have made
completed problems post and discuss
answers answering any questions.

Samples do not need to be made up of just

numbers.

12 Notes: Notes:
Mins Slide 15: Replacement
With Replacement: Selecting a red card. Potential Misconceptions:
Probability of 26/52 every time. -Students may not be aware of the
makeup of a deck of cards.
Without Replacement: Selecting a red card.
1st: 26/52, 2nd: 25/51, 3rd: 24/50 Potential Questions:
-Students may need help with the
Slide 16-17: Probability Rules makeup of a deck of cards?
1. The probability of all outcomes should -Why is the numerator and the
be between 0 and 1. denominator changing?
2. All probabilities of outcomes in a
sample should equal 1.
3. The complement of A is all events not
in A. Subtract A from 1.
4. Disjoint events do not have anything in
 common. To find the probability of one
or the other, add them together. Also
called mutually exclusive.

3 Dismissal:
Mins “Make sure you straighten up desk.
Homework is on the class website. Textbook
Exercises 6.10, 6.13 and 6.29-6.31. If you
haven’t already printed your 6.3 Guided
Notes, be sure to do that.”
Homework: Textbook Exercises 6.10, 6.13, 6.29, 6.30, 6.31
Dismissal:
Students should erase white boards
and put them beside group desks.
Markers and erasers should be put in
their group boxes.

6.10)
A. S= {All numbers between 0 and 24}
B. S = {0, 1, 2, 3 …… 11,000}
C. S= {0, 1, 2, 3 ….. 12}
D. S= {amount of dollars a student had/ any number greater than or equal to zero}
E. S = {grams gained in 8 weeks} grams

6.13)
A. 10 X 10 X 10 X 10 = 10^4 = 10,000 license plates
B. 10 X 9 X 8 X 7 = 5040 license plates
C. 10^4 + 10^3 + 10^2 + 10 = 11110 license plates.

6.29)
A. Legitimate (Weighted Coin, Still equal 1.)
B. Not Legitimate (probabilities sum is greater than 1)
C. Not Legitimate (Probabilities sum less than 1)

6.30)
A. P(A) =.29 P(B)= .18
B. A^c= the event a farm has 50 or more acres P(A^c)= 1-P(A) = .71
C. {A or B} = the event a farm has less than 50 acres or 500 acres or more. P(A or B) = .47

6.31)
A. Verified, the probabilities sum to 1.
B. P(female) = .43
C. P(F^c) = .96
D. P(D or E) = .28
E. P( (D or E)^c ) = .72