Contoh Latihan 1.

Harga saham (Rp) Cash dividen (Rp)

Tahun Probabilitas
Saham A Saham B Saham A Saham B
0 4,000 2,750
1 4,025 3,000 200 100 0.50
2 5,000 4,500 250 200 0.30
3 6,550 5,000 200 100 0.20

a. Expected Return Saham A dan Saham B

Saham A

Tahun Return (Th) Probabilitas Weighted value

0
1 5.625% 0.50 2.81%
2 30.43% 0.30 9.13%
3 35.00% 0.20 7.00%

Expected Return 18.94%

Saham B
Tahun Return (Th) Probabilitas Weighted Value
0
1 12.73% 0.50 6.36%
2 56.67% 0.30 17.00%
3 13.33% 0.20 2.67%

Expected Return 26.03%

b. Variance dan Standar Deviation

Saham A
Tahun Return (Ra) Expected Return [E(Ra)] (Ra - [E(Ra))^2 Prob. (Ra - [E(Ra))^2 x Prob.
(a) (b) (c ) (d) (e) (d * e)
0
1 5.63% 18.94% 1.77% 0.50 0.89%
2 30.43% 18.94% 1.32% 0.30 0.40%
3 35.00% 18.94% 2.58% 0.20 0.52%

Variance 1.80%
Standar Deviasi 13.41%
Coefficient of Variance 0.71
Saham B
Tahun Return (Rb) Expected Return [E(Rb)] (Rb - [E(Rb))^2 Prob. (Rb - [E(Rb))^2 x Prob.
(a) (b) (c ) (d) (e) (d * e)
0
1 12.73% 26.03% 1.77% 0.50 0.88%
2 56.67% 26.03% 9.39% 0.30 2.82%
3 13.33% 26.03% 1.61% 0.20 0.32%

Variance 4.02%
Standar Deviasi 20.06%
Coefficient of Variance 0.77

BOND VALUATION BASIC

INPUTS 1
Rate Convention: 1 = EAR, 0 = APR 12%
Annual Coupon Rate (CR) 15.00%
Yield to Maturity (Annualized) (y) 2
Number of Payments / Year (NOP) 5
Number of Periods to Maturity (n) Rp 225,000,000
Face Value (M)

Outputs
Discount Rate / Period (kd) 7.24%
Coupon Payment (I) Rp 13,500,000

Calculate Bond Price using the Cash Flows

Period 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time (Years) 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5
Cash Flows Rp 13,500,000 Rp 13,500,000 Rp 13,500,000 Rp 13,500,000 Rp 13,500,000 Rp 13,500,000 Rp 13,500,000 Rp 13,500,000 Rp 13,500,000 Rp 238,500,000
Present Value of Cash Flow
Bond Price
Latihan 1
Return saham (%)
Hasil Saham A Saham B Saham C Prob
1 -0.1 0.1 0 0.3
2 0 0.1 0.1 0.2
3 0.1 0.05 0.15 0.3
4 0.2 -0.1 0.05 0.2

a. Expected Return Saham A dan Saham B

Saham A

Tahun Return (Th) Probabilitas Weighted value

1 -0.1 0.3 -0.03

2 0 0.2 0
3 0.1 0.3 0.03
4 0.2 0.2 0.04
Expected Return 0.04

Saham B
Tahun Return (Th) Probabilitas Weighted Value

1 0.1 0.3 0.03

2 0.1 0.2 0.02
3 0.05 0.3 0.015
4 -0.1 0.2 -0.02
Expected Return 4.5%

Saham C
Tahun Return (Th) Probabilitas Weighted Value

1 0 0.3 0.00%
2 0.1 0.2 2.00%
3 0.15 0.3 4.50%
4 0.05 0.2 1.00%
Expected Return 7.5%

b. Variance dan Standar Deviation

Saham A
Tahun Return (Ra) Expected Return [E(Ra)] (Ra - [E(Ra))^2 Prob.
(a) (b) (c ) (d) (e)
1 -0.1 0.04 0.0196 0.3
2 0 0.04 0.16% 0.2
 3 0.1 0.04 0.36% 0.3
4 0.2 0.04 2.56% 0.2

Variance
Standar Deviasi
Coefficient of Variance

Saham B
Tahun Return (Rb) Expected Return [E(Rb)] (Rb - [E(Rb))^2 Prob.
(a) (b) (c ) (d) (e)
0
1 0.1 4.5% 9.80% 0.3
2 0.1 4.5% 9.80% 0.2
3 0.05 4.5% 4.80% 0.3
4 -0.1 4.5% -10.20% 0.2
Variance
Standar Deviasi
Coefficient of Variance

Saham C
Tahun Return (Rc) Expected Return [E(Rc)] (Rc - [E(Rc))^2 Prob.
(a) (b) (c ) (d) (e)
0
1 0 7.5% -0.56% 0.3
2 0.1 7.5% 9.44% 0.2
3 0.15 7.5% 14.44% 0.3
4 0.05 7.5% 4.44% 0.2
Variance
Standar Deviasi
Coefficient of Variance
(Ra - [E(Ra))^2 x Prob.
(d * e)
0.00588
0.00032
 0.00108
0.00512

1.24%
0.37%
0.09

(Rb - [E(Rb))^2 x Prob.

(d * e)

2.94%
1.96%
1.44%
-2.04%
4.30%
1.29%
0.29

(Rc - [E(Rc))^2 x Prob.

(d * e)

-0.17%
1.89%
4.33%
0.89%
6.94%
2.08%
0.28
NIM
Kondisi Return saham
ekonomi Probabilitas Saham A Saham B
Ressesion
Normal
boom

a. Expected Return Saham A dan Saham B

Saham A

Tahun Return (Th) Probabilitas Weighted value

Expected Return

Saham B
Tahun Return (Th) Probabilitas Weighted Value

Expected Return

b. Variance dan Standar Deviation

Saham A
Tahun Return (Ra) Expected Return [E(Ra)] (Ra - [E(Ra))^2 Prob. (Ra - [E(Ra))^2 x Prob.
(a) (b) (c ) (d) (e) (d * e)

Variance
Standar Deviasi
Coefficient of Variance
Saham B
Tahun Return (Rb) Expected Return [E(Rb)] (Rb - [E(Rb))^2 Prob. (Rb - [E(Rb))^2 x Prob.
(a) (b) (c ) (d) (e) (d * e)

Variance
Standar Deviasi
Coefficient of Variance