ACST212 : COMBINATORIAL PROBABILITY

Tutorial Solutions 5 : Bayes’ Theorem

Routine Questions
Question 1
Let C be the event “The chosen patient has Cancer”.
Let T be the event “The chosen patient has a positive reaction to Test.”
P ( C ) = 0.03 P (T C ) = 0.98
P ( C ) = 0.97 P (T C ) = 0.04

P ( C ) P (T C )
P (C T ) =
P ( C ) P (T C ) + P C P T C( ) ( )
0.03 × 0.98 294 147
= = = ≈ 43.1%
0.03 × 0.98 + 0.97 × 0.04 682 341
Question 2
Let Sr be the event “The chosen shelf is Shelf r”. r = 1,2,3.
Let G be the event “The chosen book is Green”.
P ( S1 ) = P ( S2 ) = P ( S3 ) = 13

P ( G S1 ) = 5
30
= 1
6

P ( G S2 ) = 5
20
= 1
4

P ( G S3 ) = 105 = 1
2

Since we’re asked for several different probabilities involving Bayes’ Theorem, it is more efficient
to evaluate P ( G ) first, rather than writing a complex expression for it in each answer.
3
P ( G ) = ∑ P ( Si ) P ( G Si ) = 13 × 16 + 13 × 14 + 13 × 12 = 11
36
i =1

P ( S1 ) P ( G S1 ) × 16
P ( S1 G ) =
1
(a) = 3
= 112
P (G ) 11
36

P ( S 2 ) P ( G S2 ) × 14
P ( S2 G ) =
1
(b) = 3
= 113
P (G ) 11
36

P ( S3 ) P ( G S3 ) × 12
P ( S3 G ) =
1
(c) = 3
= 116
P (G ) 11
36

Check: 2
11 + 113 + 116 = 1

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1
Question 3
Define the following symbols to represent the events.
T: The client travels by Train.
B: The client travels by Bus. L: The client is Late
C: The client travels by Car
O: The client travels by Other means.
P (T ) = 103 P ( B ) = 15 P ( C ) = 101 P (O ) = 2
5

P(L T ) = 1
4
P ( L B ) = 13 P ( L C ) = 121 P ( L O) = 0

P ( L ) = P (T ) P ( L T ) + P ( B ) P ( L B ) + P ( C ) P ( L C ) + P ( O ) P ( L O )
= 103 × 14 + 15 × 13 + 101 × 121 + 52 × 0
= 3
20

P ( L ) = 1 − 203 = 17
20

or

( ) (
P ( L ) = P (T ) P L T + P ( B ) P L B + P ( C ) P L C + P ( O ) P L O ) ( ) ( )
= 3
10 × + × + × + ×1
3
4
1
5
2
3
1
10
11
12
2
5

= 17
20

P (T ) P ( L T ) × 14
P (T L ) =
3
1
(a) = 10
=
P ( L) 3
20 2

P (T ) P L T ( )= × 34
( )
3
9
(b) P T L = 10
=
P(L) 17
20 34

Question 4
Let T be the event “the commuter travels by Train”.
Let C be the event “the commuter travels by Car”.
Let L be the event “the commuter arrives Late”.
Let U be the event “something Untoward happens”.
P (T ) = 2 P ( C ) and P (T ) + P ( C ) = 1 . Hence P (T ) = 2
3 and P ( C ) = 13

P(L T ) = 1
50

( )
P ( L C ) = P ( LU C ) + P LU C = P (U C ) P ( L CU ) + P U C P ( L CU ) = 100
1
× 1 + 100
99
× 19 = ( ) 3
25

P (T ) P ( L | T ) × 501
2
P (T | L ) = = 3
= 2
= 1
P (T ) P ( L | T ) + P ( C ) P ( L | C )
2 + 3×2
3× + 13 × 253
2 1 4
50

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Harder Questions
Question 5
A: 3W 2B B: 4W 1B C: 5W 0B
Let A, B and C be the events: First bag chosen is A, B or C respectively.
Let F be the event: Final drawing from bag C produces a white ball.
P ( A) = P ( B ) = P ( C ) = 1
3

Alternative 1

Let Wi be the events: Of the chosen 2 balls, i are white. ( i = 0,1, 2 )

3 4
P (W2 A ) = 5 2 = 103 P (W2 B ) = P (W2 C ) = 1 P(2W|C) = 1
C C2
5
= 3
5
C2 C2
3× 2 6 4 ×1
P (W1 A ) = = P (W1 B ) = = 2
P (W1 C ) = 0
5
C2 10 5
C2 5

P (W0 A ) = P (W0 B ) = 0 P (W0 C ) = 0

1
= 1
5
C2 10

P ( F A ) = P ( FW0 A ) + P ( FW1 A ) + P ( FW2 A ) since {FW0 , FW1 , FW2 } is a partition of F. This

leads to a result similar to partition theorem, but with all terms conditioned on A.
P ( F A) = P (W0 A ) P ( F AW0 ) + P (W1 A ) P ( F AW1 ) + P (W2 A) P ( F AW2 )
= 101 × 57 + 106 × 67 + 130 × 77 = 31
35

P ( F B ) = P (W0 B ) P ( F BW0 ) + P (W1 B ) P ( F BW1 ) + P (W2 B ) P ( F BW2 ) = 0 + 35 × 77 + 52 × 76 = 33

35

P ( F C ) = P (W0 C ) P ( F CW0 ) + P (W1 C ) P ( F CW1 ) + P (W2 C ) P ( F CW2 ) = 0 + 0 + 1× 1 = 1

Alternative 2
Let T be the event: The ball selected from Bag C is one of the 2 balls chosen in the earlier selection.

( )
P ( F A) = P ( T A) P ( F AT ) + P T A P ( F AT ) = 72 × 53 + 75 × 55 = 31
35

P ( F B ) = P (T B ) P ( F BT ) + P (T B ) P ( F BT ) = 2
7 × 45 + 75 × 55 = 33
35

P ( F C ) = P (T C ) P ( F CT ) + P (T C ) P ( F CT ) = 2
5 × 55 + 53 × 55 = 1

Though for the last case, it’s much simpler to note that it is obvious that P ( F C ) = 1 .

End of alternatives

P ( A) P ( F A )
P(A F) =
P(F )
P ( A) P ( F A)
=
P ( A) P ( F A ) + P ( B ) P ( F B ) + P ( C ) P ( F C )
× 35
1 31
= 3
= 31+ 33
31
+ 35
= 31
1
3 × 31
35 + ×1
3
33
35 + 1
3 × 1 99

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Question 6

( n + 1)
th
n bags: 4W 7B bag: 7W 4B
If 7W and 2B remain after 2B were drawn, then the last bag was chosen.
Let X be the event: chosen bag is one of the first n.

Let Y be the event: chosen bag is the ( n + 1) bag.

th

Let F be the event: 2 balls chosen are both black.

7
P(F X ) =
n C2
P(X ) = = 21
n +1 11 55
C2
4
P(F Y ) =
1 C2 6
P (Y ) = = 55
n +1 11
C2

P (Y ) P ( F Y )
P (Y F ) =
P (Y ) P ( F Y ) + P ( X ) P ( F X )
1
× 556
= n +1
1
n +1 × 6
55 + nn+1 × 55
21

= 6
6 + 21n

Hence
6
6 + 21n = 151
90 = 6 + 21n
n=4

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Question 7
(a) Method 1 is both simpler and probably gives a clearer understanding of the scenario.
Method 1: Reduce the sample space
There are two possibilities for the flip side of the card, but they are not equally likely. When
the card is chosen and placed, the visible side is equally likely to be any of the 6 faces. We are
then told the visible face is red, so remove the 3 cases where the visible side is blue. That is,
the visible red face on the table is equally likely to be any of the 3 red faces. Two of these
faces are on the card with two red faces, so there is a probability of 2/3 Ann is viewing that
card and a probability of 1/3 that she is viewing the card with blue on the other side. That is,
the correct probability is 1/3.
Method 2: Bayes’ Theorem.
Number the cards as follows:
Card 1: Both sides red.
Card 2: Both sides blue
Card 3: One side red, one side blue.
Let Ci be the event: The chosen card is card i. i = 1, 2,3.
Let R be the event: The visible side of the chosen card is Red.
Given that the visible side of the card is red, the only way the hidden side can be blue is if we
chose card 3. That is, we require P ( C3 R ) . (Hence we don’t need to define another symbol
for the hidden side of the card being blue, though you can do so if it helps your
understanding.)
P ( Ci ) = 13 i = 1, 2,3.

P ( R C1 ) = 1 P ( R C2 ) = 0 P ( R C3 ) = 1
2

By Bayes’ Theorem
P ( C3 ) P ( R C3 ) × 12
P ( C3 R ) =
1 1
= 3
= 6
= 13
3 ×1 + × 0 + 3 × 2
3

∑ P (C ) P ( R C )
1 1 1 1 1
3 2
i i
i =1

(b) Eccles effectively has no information about the visible side of the card, so as far as he is
concerned the flip-side is equally likely to be any of the 6 available faces. Three of the six are
blue, so he will answer ½.
Commentary
Part (a) of this question is actually the same problem as last week’s tute exercise involving 3 chests
of drawers and the gold and silver coins. We even re-used the top hat that the con artist had worn in
last week’s question to try to give a subtle hint!
It’s common for Paper 2 exam questions to build on questions from the previous year’s paper.
Usually the question identifies the previous question being built on. This one didn’t. The above
question from the 2007 exam didn’t identify that it was identical to the “3 chests” question which
was from the 2006 exam. Marks were awarded for identifying the link.
The 2006 scenario is the famous “Bertrand’s Box Paradox”. The 2007 variation has been called
“The Three Card Swindle” by Martin Gardner.

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Question 8
(a) Since the final drawing is only concerned with whether or not ivory balls are drawn, we only
need to classify the colours as Ivory or Other.
Since we know the colour of the first 3 balls selected, the experiment effectively starts after
the first transfer. At that point we have:
Urn: 7 Ivory, 20 Other Bag: 3 Ivory.
Define the events:
I n : n of the next 2 balls drawn from the urn are ivory. ( n = 0,1, 2 )
F : All x drawings from the bag produce 2 ivory balls.
20 x
 3C 
P ( F I 0 ) =  2 5  = ( 103 )
C
P ( I 0 ) = 27 2 = 190
x
Bag contains 3 Ivory, 2 others.
C2 351  C2 

7 × 20 140
x
 4C 
P ( I1 ) = 27 P ( F I1 ) =  2 5  = ( 53 )
x
= 351 Bag contains 4 Ivory, 1 other
C2  C2 
7
P ( F I2 ) = 1
C2
P ( I2 ) = 27
= 21
351 Bag contains 5 Ivory.
C2

P ( I2 ) P ( F | I2 )
P ( I2 | F ) =
P ( I 0 ) P ( F | I 0 ) + P ( I1 ) P ( F | I1 ) + P ( I 2 ) P ( F | I 2 )
21
×1
= 351

( 103 ) 351 ( 5 ) + 351 × 1

+ 140
190 x 3 21x
351

21
=
190 ( 3 x
) + 140 ( 35 ) + 21
x
10

21
(b) lim P ( I 2 | F ) = lim =1
190 ( 103 ) + 140 ( 35 ) + 21
x →∞ x →∞ x x

As the number of times the selection of two balls from the bag produces two ivory balls
increases, we become increasingly convinced that the bag contains only ivory balls, meaning
that the last two balls transferred to the bag must both have been ivory.

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Question 9
(a) Jar One: 2R 1W Jar Two: 2R 2W
P( J1 ) = P( J2 ) = 1
2

P ( M 1 J1 ) = 2
3
P ( M 1 J 2 ) = 24 = 1
2

Bayes’ Theorem gives:

P ( J1 ) P ( M 1 J 1 ) × 32
P ( J1 M 1 ) =
1
= 2
= 4
P ( J1 ) P ( M 1 J 1 ) + P ( J 2 ) P ( M 1 J 2 ) 2× + 2×2
1 21 1 7
3

P ( J 2 ) P ( M1 J 2 ) × 12
P ( J 2 M1 ) =
1
= 2
= 3
P ( J 1 ) P ( M 1 J1 ) + P ( J 2 ) P ( M 1 J 2 ) 2× + 2× 2
1 21 1 7
3

Or P ( J 2 | M 1 ) = 1 − P ( J1 | M 1 ) = 1 − 74 = 3
7

P ( M 2 | M 1 ) = P ( M 2 J1 | M 1 ) + P ( M 2 J 2 | M 1 )
= P ( J1 | M 1 ) P ( M 2 | J1 M 1 ) + P ( J 2 | M 1 ) P ( M 2 | J 2 M 1 )
= 74 × 12 + 73 × 13
= 3
7

P ( M 1M 2 )
(b) P ( M 2 | M1 ) =
P ( M1 )

The event M 1M 2 is the event that both balls selected are red. The probability of this event
would be unchanged whether the balls were selected one at a time, as in this problem, or
whether they were selected together. Hence we can simplify the evaluation of P ( M 1M 2 ) by
pretending two balls are drawn simultaneously and asking whether they are both red.
2
C2 1 2C2 1 1 1 1 3
P ( M 1 M 2 ) = P ( J1 ) P ( M 1 M 2 J1 ) + P ( J 2 ) P ( M 1 M 2 J 2 ) = 1
2 3 + 2 4 = 2 × 3 + 2 × 6 = 12
C2 C2
P ( M 1 ) = P ( J1 ) P ( M 1 J1 ) + P ( J 2 ) P ( M 1 J 2 ) = 1 2
2 3
+ 12 12 = 127

P ( M 1M 2 )
P ( M 2 M1 ) =
3
= 12
= 3
P ( M1 ) 7 7
12

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Question 10
27!
3 27
C C 15!12! 13.14.15 13
(a) P ( A0 ) = 300 15 = = =
C15 30! 28.29.30 116
15!15!
27!
3 27
3×
C C 14!13! 3.15.14.15 45
P ( A1 ) = 301 14 = = =
C15 30! 28.29.30 116
15!15!
27!
3 27 3×
C C 13!14! 3.14.15.15 45
P ( A2 ) = 302 13 = = =
C15 30! 28.29.30 116
15!15!
27!
3 27
C C 12!15! 13.14.15 13
P ( A3 ) = 303 12 = = =
C15 30! 28.29.30 116
15!15!
Check: 13
116 + 116
45
+ 116
45
+ 116
13
=1

(b) P ( F A0 ) = 150 P ( F A1 ) = 151 P ( F A2 ) = 152 P ( F A3 ) = 153

3
P ( F ) = ∑ P ( Ai ) P ( F Ai ) = 116
13
× 150 + 116
45
× 151 + 116
45
× 152 + 116
13
× 153 = 116174×15 = 101
i=0

(c) We have randomly selected 15 cards from the original 30 for the first pile, then randomly
selected one card from those 15. This is equivalent to randomly selecting 1 card from the
original 30. Thus the chance that this card is one of the 3 Aces is 303 = 101
(d) The symmetry arises since we are splitting the 30 cards into 2 equal piles. For each partition
that puts 0 Aces in pile 1 and 3 Aces in pile 2, there is a mirror image partition that puts the 3
Aces in pile 1 and 0 Aces in pile 2. Thus the number of favourable outcomes for A0 and A3
are equal. A similar argument applies for A1 and A2 .
Common error: Providing an algebraic solution rather than a general reasoning solution.
P ( Ai ) P ( F Ai )
(e) P ( Ai F ) =
P(F )

× 150 × 151
P ( A0 F ) = P ( A1 F ) =
13 45
116
1
=0 116
1
= 15
58
10 10

× 152 × 153
P ( A2 F ) = P ( A3 F ) =
45 13
116
1
= 30
58 = 15
29
116
1
= 13
58
10 10

Obvious check: 0 + 15
58 + 58 + 58 = 1
30 13

(We cancel P ( A2 F ) to 15
29 , but for subsequent calculations it is simpler to use 30
58 so that all
denominators are common.)
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(f) Let S denote the event: The card selected from the 2nd pile is an Ace.
3 3
P ( S F ) = ∑ P ( SAi F ) = ∑ P ( Ai F ) P ( S Ai F )
i =0 i =0

= 0 + 15
58 × 16 + 58 × 16 + 58 × 16 = 58×16 =
3 30 2 13 1 118 59
464

To determine P ( S Ai F ) , note that Ai implies there were initially i Aces in the first pile,
leaving 3 − i in the 2nd pile, and F implies another Ace was transferred to the 2nd pile, so of
the 16 cards in the 2nd pile, 4 − i will be Aces. Hence P ( S Ai F ) = 416−i .

Common error: Ignoring the instruction to use the results from (e).
(g) Let R denote the event: The card selected from the 2nd pile is the card selected from the 1st
pile.
P (S F )
= P ( SR F ) + P ( SR F )
= P ( R F ) P ( S RF ) + P ( R F ) P S RF ( )
= P ( R ) P ( S RF ) + P ( R ) P S RF ( ) since R and F are independent

= 161 × 1 + 16
15
× 292 = 29 + 30
16×29 = 59
464

(
The difficult term in the above expression is P S R F . Note that there are 30 cards involved )
and we have information on only one: the card transferred from the 1st pile to the 2nd pile is an
Ace. The R condition tells us we have selected a card from the 15 cards originally in the 2nd
pile and thus did not select that particular Ace. It is thus equally valid to regard this selection
as a random selection from the 29 cards that are not the particular Ace sighted. Two of these
cards are (the other) Aces. Hence P S RF = ( ) 2
29 .

For those who weren’t able to employ the hint, a less efficient method is

(
P S RF )
( )
3
= ∑ P SAi RF
i =0

( ) ( )
3
= ∑ P Ai RF P S Ai RF
i =0

( )
3
= ∑ P ( Ai F )P S Ai RF
i =0

since knowing whether the card selected from the 2nd pile was that transferred from the first
pile tells us nothing about the original composition of the 1st pile.
= 0 × 153 + 15
58 × 15 + 58 × 15 + 58 × 0
2 30 1 13

= 2
29

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Question 11
Define the following events:
Bi : The randomly selected bag is bag i. i = 1, 2.

Wi : The two randomly selected balls consist of i white balls and 2 − i black balls. i = 0,1, 2.

P ( B1 ) = P ( B2 ) = 1
2

2
C0 2C2 1
P (W0 B1 ) = 4 = P (W0 B2 ) = 0
C2 6
3
2
C1 2C1 4 C1 1C1 3
P (W1 B1 ) = 4
= P (W1 B2 ) = 4
=
C2 6 C2 6
3
2
C 2 2C 0 1 C2 1C0 3
P (W2 B1 ) = 4 = P (W2 B2 ) = 4 =
C2 6 C2 6

P (Wi ) = P ( B1 ) P (Wi B1 ) + P ( B2 ) P (Wi B2 )

P (W0 ) = 12 × 16 + 12 × 0 = 121

P (W1 ) = 12 × 64 + 21 × 63 = 127

P (W2 ) = 12 × 16 + 12 × 63 = 124

Check: 1
12 + 127 + 124 = 1
Bayes’ Theorem gives
P ( B1 ) P (Wi B1 )
P ( B1 Wi ) =
P (Wi )

× 16
P ( B1 W0 ) =
1
2
1
=1
12

× 64
P ( B1 W1 ) =
1
2
7
= 4
7
12

× 16
P ( B1 W2 ) = So P ( B2 W2 ) =
1
2
4
= 1
4
3
4
12

If Hermione draws 2 black balls, she will guess that she has bag 1, and will definitely be correct.
If Hermione draws 1 ball of each colour, she will guess that she has bag 1, and the probability that
she is correct is 47 .
If Hermione draws 2 white balls, she will guess that she has bag 2, and the probability that she is
correct is 43 .
Overall, the chance that she guesses correctly is
1
12 × 1 + 127 × 74 + 124 × 43 = 2
3

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10
Question 12
Perhaps a diagram will be untangle this mess.
1/2 9/10
Evilyn Success
Wood Fit
2/3

1/2 1/10

1/3
1/4 1/2
Lancre
Forest Failure
Not fit
3/4 1/2

Let E be the event: Conina travels via Evilyn Wood.

So E is the event: She travels via the Lancre Forest.
Let F be the event: She is fit for the battle with Peterkin.
Let D be the event: She defeats Peterkin.
P(E) = 2
3 P(E) = 1
3

P(F E) = 1
2 P(F E) = 1
2 ( )
P F E = 1
4 ( )
P F E = 3
4

P ( D F ) = 109 P ( D F ) = 101 P (D F ) = 1
2 P (D F ) = 1
2

It looks like it might be useful to also calculate:

P (F ) = P (E) P (F E ) + P (E) P F E ( )
= 23 × 12 + 13 × 14
= 125

So P ( F ) = 127

P ( D) = P ( F ) P ( D F ) + P ( F ) P D F ( )
= 125 × 109 + 127 × 12
= 2
3

P(F ) P(D F )
P (F D) =
5 9
(a) = 12 10
= 169
P ( D) 2
3

P (E) P (D E)
P (E D) =
2 7
(b) = 3 10
= 107 since
P ( D) 2
3

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11
 P ( D E ) = P ( F E ) P ( D EF ) + P ( F E ) P D EF ( )
= P(F E) P(D F ) + P(F E) P D F ( )
= 12 × 109 + 12 × 21
= 107

P ( EF ) P ( D EF ) P (E) P (F E ) P (D F )
P ( EF D ) =
2 1 9
(c) = = 3 2 10
= 9
P (D) P (D) 2 20
3

Character & Location Sources

Conina the Barbarianess, Rincewind, Lancre Forest: The Diskworld books by Terry Pratchett.
Peterkin the Ferret-Strangler. “I’m Sorry I’ll Read That Again”, a BBC radio comedy.
Evilyn Wood, Goodgulf, narcs and Tim Benzedrine: “Bored of the Rings” by Henry N Beard and
Douglas C Kenney.
Belgarath: David Eddings’ Belgariad series.
Verbivores: Jasper Fforde’s Thursday Next series.
Prince Herbert, the Green Knight and the Bridge of Death (which is guarded by the old man from
Scene 24): Monty Python and the Holy Grail
Burricks and Craymen: “Thief: The Metal Age” Eidos Interactive. (Also contains Zombies, but they
have a much longer history.)

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Repetitious Problems
Question 13
Let S be the event: The sent symbol was a dot.
Let R be the event: The received signal was a dot.
P(S ) = 3
7
P(R S ) = 3
4

P (S ) = 4
7 P ( R S ) = 13

P(S ) P(R | S )
P (S | R) =
P(S ) P(R | S ) + P(S ) P(R | S )
× 34
3
= 7

7× + 7×3
3 3
4 1
4

= 27
27 +16

= 27
43

Question 14
Let U i be the event: urn i was chosen. i = 1, 2, 3.
Let B be the event: first ball selected is blue.
Let R be the event: second ball selected is red.
P (U1 ) = 4
6 P (U 2 ) = P (U 3 ) = 1
6

P ( BR U1 ) = P ( B U1 ) P ( R BU1 )
= 82 × 74

P ( BR U 2 ) = 72 × 46

P ( BR U 3 ) = 64 × 15

P (U 2 ) P ( BR U 2 )
P (U 2 BR ) = 3

∑ P (U ) P ( BR U )
i =1
i i

× 72 × 64
1
= 6

6×8×7 + ×7×6 + 6×6×5

4 2 4 2 1
4 1 4 1
6

10
=
47

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13
Question 15
Define the following events.
L: The chosen box contains bulbs of low quality.
M: The chosen box contains bulbs of medium quality.
H: The chosen box contains bulbs of high quality.
Si : i of the two selected bulbs are satisfactory. i = 0,1, 2.

P ( L) = P ( S1 L ) = 2 × 108 × 102 = 16 P ( S2 L ) = ( 108 ) = 100

2 2 64
5 50

P (M ) = P ( S1 M ) = 2 × 109 × 101 = P ( S2 M ) = ( 109 ) = 100

2 9 81 2
5 50

P(H ) = 1
5 P ( S1 H ) = 0 P ( S2 H ) = 1

(a)
P ( S1 ) = P ( L ) P ( S1 L ) + P ( M ) P ( S1 M ) + P ( H ) P ( S1 H )
= 52 × 16
50
+ 25 × 509 + 15 × 0
= 52 × 50
25

= 1
5

(b)
P ( M ) P ( S1 M )
P ( M S1 ) =
P ( S1 )
2
× 509
= 5
1
5

= 9
25

(c)
P ( H ) P ( S2 H )
P ( H S2 ) =
P ( L ) P ( S2 L ) + P ( M ) P ( S2 M ) + P ( H ) P ( S2 H )
×1
1
= 5
2
5 × 64
100 + × 100
2
5
81
+ 51 ×1
100
=
2 × 64 + 2 × 81 + 50
= 100
390

= 10
39

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Question 16
Define the following events.
Di : Drawer i is chosen, i = 1, 2,3.
M : The two socks match.
B: Both socks are black.
R: Both socks are red.
G: Both socks are green.
Data: Drawer 1 4 Black
Drawer 2 4 Black 4 Red
Drawer 3 2 Black 2 Red 4 Green

(a)
P ( D1 M ) P ( D1 ) P ( M D1 )
P ( D1 M ) = =
P (M ) 3

∑ P (D ) P (M
i =1
i Di )
1
×1
= 3
C 2 + C 2 1 2C 2 + 2C 2 + 4 C 2
4 4
1
3 ×1 + × 1
3 8
+3× 8
C2 C2
8
C2 28 7
= = =
8
C2 + 3 × C2 + 2 × C2 48 12
4 2

(b)
3

∑ P(D ) P(B D )
i i
P(B M ) =
P ( BM ) P( B)
= = i =1
3

∑ P(D ) P(M D )
P(M ) P(M )
i i
i =1
4
C 2 1 2C 2
×1 + × 8 + 3 × 8
1
3
1
3
C2 C2
= 4
C2 + C2 1 C2 + 2C2 + 4C2
4 2
1
3 × 1 + 1
3 × 8
+ 3× 8
C2 C2
C2 + 4C2 + 2C2
8
35
= =
8
C2 + 3 × C2 + 2 × C2 48
4 2

Intermediate results that could be calculated include

5 1 1 4
P( B) = , P ( R ) = , P (G ) = , P ( M ) = .
12 12 14 7

Copyright © 2010. Macquarie University.

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Question 17
Let Di be the event: “Drawer i was chosen” i = 1, 2.
Let M be the event: “The first two socks don’t match, but the third completes a pair.”
P ( D1 ) = P ( D2 ) = 12
Regarding the three socks as being drawn one at a time:
P ( M D1 ) = 45 × 24 = 2
5

P ( M D2 ) = 23 ×1 = 2
3

P ( D1 ) P ( M D1 )
P ( D1 M ) =
P ( D1 ) P ( M D1 ) + P ( D2 ) P ( M D2 )
× 52
1
= 2

2× + 2×3
1 2 1 2
5

3
=
3+5
= 3
8

Copyright © 2010. Macquarie University.

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