Acknowledgments

This research is supported by the Singapore Ministry of National Development and the National

Research Foundation, Prime Minister’s Office under the Land and Liveability National Innovation

Challenge (L2 NIC) Research Programme (Award No. L2NICCFP2-2015-1). Any opinions,

findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors

and do not reflect the views of the Singapore Ministry of National Development and National

Research Foundation, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore.

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 Table 1 Prediction accuracies of spatial prediction of KF–OA interface elevation

Experiment RMSE (m) RMSRE CP (%)

1 5.17 0.61 98
2 4.25 0.19 93
3 3.99 0.17 93
4 4.75 0.20 96
5 5.47 0.59 93
6 5.33 0.61 91
7 4.60 0.50 93
8 4.50 0.21 96
9 4.13 0.24 93
10 4.82 0.55 89
11 3.51 0.20 98
12 4.43 0.23 100
13 4.87 0.23 89
14 4.39 0.40 96
15 4.90 0.56 96
16 4.55 0.23 93
17 4.43 0.46 96
18 4.50 0.46 91
19 3.95 0.20 98
20 4.46 0.21 93
21 3.94 0.43 98
22 3.57 0.17 100
23 4.30 0.21 98
24 3.75 0.19 98
25 4.51 0.40 91
26 4.25 0.20 98
27 5.02 0.56 96
28 3.39 0.18 100
29 4.54 0.47 98
30 4.07 0.20 96
Average 4.40 0.32 95

Note: the last row summarizes the average value for 100 experiments. For brevity, the table only lists the
results for 30 experiments.

27
 Table 2 Prediction accuracies of spatial prediction of rockhead elevation

Experiment RMSE (m) RMSRE CP (%)

1 8.24 0.89 98
2 10.13 2.38 100
3 10.72 0.49 92
4 7.62 0.83 100
5 9.30 2.00 98
6 7.98 1.65 100
7 9.30 1.72 98
8 9.30 2.22 98
9 9.36 1.27 98
10 10.13 1.38 95
11 8.51 0.50 98
12 10.22 0.35 98
13 9.39 1.08 100
14 10.30 0.80 92
15 7.65 0.71 100
16 8.84 1.68 100
17 9.49 1.85 100
18 11.48 1.33 95
19 10.83 2.04 95
20 10.28 1.11 95
21 9.39 2.71 95
22 8.99 0.72 100
23 9.29 2.43 98
24 9.19 1.72 100
25 9.11 1.37 100
26 6.07 1.25 100
27 8.74 2.31 100
28 8.52 0.77 100
29 9.38 1.20 95
30 8.24 1.64 98
Average 9.22 1.47 98

Note: the last row summarizes the average value for 50 experiments. For brevity, the table only lists the
results for 30 experiments.

28
 Validation set Training set

Fold 1 Fold 1 Fold 1

Fold 2 Fold 2 Fold 2

Step 1 Dataset Fold 3 Dataset Fold 3 ……… Dataset Fold 3

…… …… ……
Fold k Fold k Fold k

………
Step 2 Mean squared error for Mean squared error for Mean squared error for
fold 1: MSE1,t, fold 2: MSE2,t, fold k: MSEk,t,
MSE1,t+1, ···, MSE1,t+s MSE2,t+1, ···, MSE2,t+s MSEk,t+1, ···, MSEk,t+s
(t, t+1, ···, t+s are considered candidate numbers of terms in the MARS model)

Step 3 Evaluate the average value of mean squared error (AMSE) for
each number of terms, e.g., AMSE for t terms, AMSEt = (MSE1,t
+ MSE2,t + ··· + MSEk,t)/k

Evaluate optimal number of terms, N, by identifying the

Step 4
minimum AMSE

Fig. 1. The procedure of k-fold cross-validation for building the multivariate adaptive regression

spline model.

(a) Geological profile of a cross-section at site 1

29