Reyes, Nicole G.

CE-503

RATIONALE OF THE STUDY

Our country, Philippines, is greatly dependent on agriculture for food security and

economic growth. This is the reason why there is a need for this kind of study because climate

change serves as a threat to our source of livelihood which is the agriculture. In addition, our

country is one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climatic change and through

this research we can be able to at least lessen the adverse effects of climate change. If our

country fails to address this issue or problem there is a huge possibility of experiencing food

scarcity as well as flooding, droughts, rain-induced landslides and the likes. It would be a great

advantage for our country to have a clear understanding and knowledge of the capability of the

catchments responsible for water irrigation considering future seasonal variability in rainfall

patterns under the impacts of climate change.

ABSTRACT

This study aims to determine the potential impacts of climate change on the future

hydrological regimes and water resources of the Philippines. In order to fully understand these

potential impacts, 24 river basins were selected based on their catchment size, climate type,

availability of historical streamflow data and their importance to agricultural production, these

river basins will represent the 18 major river basins in the country. The hydrological model

STREAM (Spatial Tools for River basins and Environment and Analysis of Management

options) was used in this study to assess future river flows derived from three global climate

models (BCM2, CNCM3, MPEH5) with two likely scenarios each (A2 and A1B) were then
compared with the simulations of the 20th century. These three global climate models with two

different scenarios each show a clear increase in river flows for the wet and dry season in the

Philippines. Climate change effects for Visayas and Mindanao are expected to be relatively mild

compared to Luzon, where a dramatic increase in return intervals for maximum river flow rates

is predicted. The projected increase in water availability would benefit the agricultural sector

especially during the dry season when water is scarce. However, an increase in extreme rainfall

events will aggravate water induced soil erosion and flooding in the country.

METHODOLOGY

The methodology of the study is correct although it is quite difficult to comprehend. The

three global climate models used were not explained properly as to why they are chosen or what

made them unique among other GCMs that made them more suitable for the study. There are

also too many parameters or variables considered that made it more confusing especially if the

reader only read it once. The limitations of the study that can have significant effects were not

stated on the methodology though it can be found on the discussion. There were four climate

types considered for the study but there is no representative basin on the second climate type.

Instead of using one hydrological model which is the STREAM they should have used another

model to make the result of the study more accurate and reliable.

DATA GATHERING

The data gathering of this study is quite challenging since there is data scarcity especially

when it comes to the river basins. The researchers were not able to anticipate the possible effect

of data scarcity to the result of this study. There were only three river basins considered in

Visayas which is not enough to attain accurate result (though it is understandable since there
were standards considered) as compared to Luzon and Mindanao having 12 and 9 sample river

basins respectively. There were too many data or information needed for the study that made it

more difficult for the researchers. They used different mathematical models such as, volumetric

efficiency in comparing modelled and observed discharge and gumbel distribution in comparing

baseline and (A2 and A1B) scenarios, to come up with the needed data. The data gathered were

limited or dependent on the models used in the study.

MATHEMATICAL MODEL

The Gumbel distribution is used in this study to compare differences between the two

scenarios (A2 and A1B) and the baseline scenario, in probability theory and statistics it is used to

model the distribution of the maximum or the minimum of a number of samples of various

distributions. This distribution might be used to represent the distribution of the maximum level

of a river in a particular year if there was a list of maximum values for the past ten years. It is

useful in predicting the chance that an extreme earthquake, flood, or other natural disaster will

occur. The study also used non-linear regression, in statistics it is a form of regression analysis in

which observational data are modelled by a function which is a non-linear combination of the

model parameters and depends on one or more independent variables. The data are fitted by a

method of successive approximations.

CONCLUSION

The water balance calculations show an overall increase in water quality for both the wet

and dry seasons with river flow distributions revealing an overall increase in water availability.

The data reveals a clear north-south trend rather than a trend associated with different climatic

types. The northern part of Luzon is expected to experience a dramatic increase in peak river
run-off, while Visayas and Mindanao are predicted to experience an increase in river discharge

that is not associated with higher peak flows. This study will be of great help to the agricultural

sector since there is a projected increase in water availability especially during dry season when

water is scarce or limited. Moreover, given these projections the government as well as the

people will have an idea to take actions or measures for flood control such as sustainable

management, ecosystem services and infrastructural works which are very necessary in order to

reduce or lessen the climate change impacts.