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Published in IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution
Received on 28th August 2013
Revised on 28th November 2013
Accepted on 31st December 2013
doi: 10.1049/iet-gtd.2013.0616
ISSN 1751-8687
Abstract: Several smart grid applications have recently been devised in order to timely perform supervisory functions along with
self-healing and adaptive countermeasures based on system-wide analysis, with the ultimate goal of reducing the risks associated
with potentially insecure operating conditions. Real-time transient stability assessment (TSA) belongs to this type of applications,
which allows deciding and coordinating pertinent corrective control actions depending on the evolution of post-fault rotor-angle
deviations. This study presents a novel approach for carrying out real-time TSA based on prediction of area-based centre-of-
inertia (COI) referred rotor angles from phasor measurement unit (PMU) measurements. Monte Carlo-based procedures are
performed to iteratively evaluate the system transient stability response, considering the operational statistics related to loading
condition changes and fault occurrence rates, in order to build a knowledge database for PMU and COI-referred rotor-angles
as well as to screen those relevant PMU signals that allows ensuring high observability of slow and fast dynamic phenomena.
The database is employed for structuring and training an intelligent COI-referred rotor-angle regressor based on support
vector machines [support vector regressor (SVR)] to be used for real-time TSA from selected PMUs. Besides, the SVR is
optimally tuned by using the swarm variant of the mean-variance mapping optimisation. The proposal is tested on the IEEE
New England 39-bus system. Results demonstrate the feasibility of the methodology in estimating the COI-referred rotor
angles, which enables alerting about real-time transient stability threats per system areas, for which a transient stability index
is also computed.
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additional techniques: (i) piecewise constant transfer based on support vector machines (SVM), used to identify
admittance equivalent (PCTAE); and (ii) implicitly the actual TS status. This approach assumes that PMUs are
decoupled PQ integration (IDPQI), in addition to PCCLE. available at all generators’ terminal buses, without
Although the methods PCCLE and PCTAE allow knocking performing feature extraction to reduce the dimensionality of
out the algebraic equations throughout the approximations the input data of the classifier, which indeed adversely affects
of the power flow solution by pieces, IDPQI reduces the the SVM training stage. On the other hand, an approach for
integration time of the set of differential/algebraic equations predicting the TS status in real time, based on data mining
that describe the post-fault power system. techniques and SVM, is presented in [5]. This method
A method based on fuzzy hyper-rectangular composite considers PMUs properly located at specific buses (which is
neural network is proposed in [10] for the prediction of more realistic due to limited availability of resources for
oscillations during TS phenomenon using a short-term time real-time data handling) and uses time series data mining to
window of post-contingency phasor measurements. reduce the classifier’s input features. Remarkably, the last
An autoregressive model for the prediction of power system two methods provide a binary indication of the actual
loss of synchronism is depicted in [11]. Two types of temporal stability status (i.e. whether the system is stable or not)
series data are employed in order to identify the model, that is: without quantifying the actual TS level, a measure that
(i) the voltage phasor angle difference between two substations; allows ascertaining the distance to the TS security border.
and (ii) the rotor angles of generators. On the other hand, a A vulnerability assessment (VA) method for quickly
measure of the angular stability margin, called branch assessing the multi-area power system post-contingency
impedance trajectory sensitivity, is proposed in [12]. vulnerability status, mainly regarding to rotor-angle
An algorithm for on-line prediction of TS, based on PMU stability, is developed in [20]. This method uses PMU data
measurements together with models from energy to compute wide-area severity indices (WASI), as an
management system (EMS) functions, is proposed in [13]. extension of the severity indices firstly presented in [21].
From EMS pre-fault models and the post-fault system These WASI are calculated in the frequency domain
topology, a reduced model of the post-contingency power through applying the short-time-Fourier-transform to data
system is built. This reduced model only keeps the obtained from PMUs located in specific system buses,
generator terminal buses, and the method assumes that determined by a coherency criterion defined in [22] and
PMUs are already located at each of these buses. The TS improved in [23]. A systematic scheme for rapidly
prediction is carried out via time domain simulations of the classifying the stability status resulted from WASI using
reduced network together with an algorithm that permits fuzzy rule-based classifiers is presented [24]. This classifier
estimating the rotor angles of power plants. The required uses large-size decision trees (DTs) to generate initial
time domain simulations restrict the feasibility for real-time accurate classification boundaries for decision making as
applications of this method. early as 1 or 2 s after fault clearing. A WASI-based
A method for predicting the TS based on wide area model-predictive framework for determining fast
measurement system (WAMS) data is presented in [14]. catastrophe precursors in a bulk power system has been
This approach uses PMU measurement, identification of stated in [25]. These fast catastrophe predictors use
coherent groups of generators, system equivalent reduction, random-forest (RF) learning in order to increase the
and stability prediction algorithms in order to accomplish classification accuracy, showing excellent performance as
its aim. Once the perturbation occurs, the original system is regards typical DTs. In [26], a comparison between several
reduced via clustering techniques applied to the dynamic data mining classifiers, such as artificial neural networks,
response. Then, the future angle trajectories and the angular SVM, DT, Fuzzy DT, Fuzzy ID3 (Iterative Dichotomiser
frequency of generators are predicted via time domain 3), and RF is performed; from which, RF-based predictor is
simulations. This task hinders the real-time application of the only one to achieve more than 99.0% of accuracy based
this method. In addition, the methodology applies the on WASI. However, RF presents poorly transparent
classic generator model, which constitutes an unnecessary characteristics and might present over-fitting problems. In
limitation of the algorithm. this connection, a more transparent predictor is suggested to
Some methods for real-time TSA were introduced in [15], be used in [26] at the expense of loss of accuracy. WASI
from which emergency single machine equivalent (E-SIME) offer a novel concept in power system real-time VA that
seems attractive for real-time applications. Basically, this reasonably permits estimating the tendency of the system to
method uses multi-machine rotor angles (δi) and the system change its conditions to a critical state. Nevertheless, these
accelerating power (Pa) for synthesising the so-called one indices present the problem of showing a considerable large
machine infinite bus (OMIB) equivalent, which eases the overlapping zone. For instance, test results in [25] conclude
prediction of transient instability from PMU data [15–17]. that ‘75% of stable cases verify the relationship
Nevertheless, in this approach, the derivation of mechanical FastWASI300 ms <−2.5, while for 75% unstable cases,
variables together with the prediction of the Pa—δ curves FastWASI300 ms > −2.5’. This fact denotes that the
entail relatively significant time delays and numerical overlapping zone is formed by 25% of stable cases
inaccuracies. Also, a scheme based on visualisation of belonging to the region of the unstable cases and vice
phase-space curves of critical variables, which allows versa. This large overlapping range is one of the reasons of
identifying patterns that could alert about a possible collapse classification difficulties, and this issue has been surpassed
(i.e. early warning) was reported in [18]. However, the fast via a most sophisticated classifier (RF-based predictor).
automatic update of the curves to continuously unveil their In summary, although the mentioned proposals have given
similarities is still to be overcome. A technique for a new challenging viewpoint regarding real-time TSA, some
classifying the TS status of a power system following a large drawbacks have to be still tackled, such as: to obtain better
disturbance, based on synchronously measured samples of accuracy in the results; and to contemplate rational PMU
voltage phasor magnitudes at major generation centres, is locations instead of considering PMUs at every generation
proposed in [19]. The samples, acquired immediately after buses. Then, more appropriate mathematical tools should be
fault clearance, constitute the inputs of a binary classifier developed in order to better adapt to the power system
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dynamic variables, considering a more realistic PMU equivalent inertial centre of each electric area
availability.
1
N
j
Thus, in this paper, a novel approach, aimed at providing a
quick quantification of the actual TS level, via the dCOIj = Md (3)
Mj i=1 i i
computation of a TS index (TSI), is introduced. It employs
a SVM regressor (i.e. support vector regressor (SVR)) to
N
predict area-based COI-referred rotor angles from selected Mj = Mi (4)
PMU measurements. The input dimensionality reduction i=1
and training tasks are performed through mining data
obtained via Monte Carlo (MC)-based procedures, whereas where δCOI j and Mj are the inertial area equivalent rotor angle,
the tuning of the SVR is done by using the swarm variant and the total inertia moment of the jth area, whereas Mi and δi
of the mean-variance mapping optimisation. The main denote inertia moment and rotor-angle of ith machine
advantage of this method is that it considers PMU rational belonging to jth area, respectively.
locations while providing good accuracy results. The paper Considering a total number of r areas in a power system,
is organised as follows: Section 2 briefly reviews the the COI of the system can be defined as follows
theoretical background on COI-referred rotor angles and
associated PMU electric areas. Section 3 gives an overview 1 r
dCOISystem = Md (5)
of the proposed approach for real-time COI-referred MT j=1 j COIj
rotor-angle estimation and TSI computation. Simulation
tests and discussion on the performance of the proposal are
r
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2.2.1 Probabilistic-based PMU placement: This paper training tasks are performed using the results obtained
uses a probabilistic-based method to screen those suitable from MC-based simulations. These data are subjected to a
PMU locations that allows ensuring observability of slow sampling procedure previous to be used in the SVR
and fast dynamic phenomena in order to accurately perform training. Additionally, SVR parameter identification is done
the vulnerability assessment in real-time. This method was by using the swarm variant of the mean-variance mapping
firstly introduced by the authors in [29] and uses MC-based optimisation (MVMOS).
procedures to iteratively evaluate the system fast dynamic First, N − 1 post-contingency dynamic data is generated via
coherency and bus oscillatory modal observability, MC time domain simulations. MC simulations are performed
considering the most probable operating scenarios generated based on samples from probability distribution functions
from operational statistical information. (PDFs) describing nodal load variations and fault (e.g. three
The aim of the approach is to determine PMU placement phase short circuits) occurrence rates. The results are then
that allows ensuring observability of slow and fast stored throughout the MC repetitions to derive a knowledge
dynamics. Fast coherency clustering allows specifying the database comprising the corresponding COI-referred
candidate buses by means of determining electric coherent rotor-angles.
areas, and the slow coherency analysis guides the final In practice, the database might alternatively be built by
decision regarding PMU location. Two probabilistic indices using historical records. This database allows offline
are used for this purpose. The measure of orthogonal definition and training of an intelligent COI-referred
observability (ORTgm) allows verifying the orthogonality rotor-angle regressor based on SVR.
constraint that ensures obtaining as much information as For real-time application, the regressor uses
possible about system oscillatory modes; whereas, the average post-contingency voltage angles and magnitudes acquired
measure of observability (MPOgm) reveals the probabilistic from PMUs to estimate the COI-referred rotor-angles,
oscillatory observability presented by each bus [29]. which allows subsequent computation of the area-based
Interested readers can find further information regarding the COI-referred rotor angles and a corresponding TSI. Fig. 1
PMU location methodology in [29]. sketches the overall structure of the proposed approach.
2.2.2 Associated PMU coherent areas: Since fast
coherency may change depending on the operating state and 3.1 Generation and selection of training data
the contingency magnitude, the number and the structure of
the electric coherent areas might be different. Then, As stated previously, this paper proposes a MC-based
MC-based dynamic simulations and clustering analysis, procedure for obtaining the data needed to devise and to
similar to those applied for placing the PMUs [29], have to train an intelligent regressor, capable of estimating the area
be carried out in order to analyse the different possibilities COI-referred rotor-angles in real time.
of coherent areas. In order to perform MC-based simulations, several input
In this connection, once PMUs are placed (via the method data are required. These data depend on the objective of the
summarised in 2.2.1), a probabilistic analysis of coherent simulation, and they are usually represented by their
areas has to be done in order to determine the most corresponding PDFs. Since the proposal intends to design a
representative group of coherent buses associated to each wide-area real-time post-contingency situational awareness
PMU (i.e. the probabilistic areas associated to PMUs), methodology, capable of being even daily updated by the
which will permit structuring a database for using in real independent system operator (ISO) in the control centre, the
time (each one of these areas represents the system COIs). proposed uncertainty analysis encompasses only a specific
This analysis allows determining the most representative short-term planning horizon. Thus, the probabilistic models
group of coherent generators associated to each PMU, of power system random variables, as well as the grid
whose COI-referred rotor angles will be then computed. topology, should be structured within this considered
Thus, a thorough analysis of the results from MC-based fast short-term planning horizon, so as to reflect the behaviour
dynamic coherency (described in detail in [29]), via of the system as realistic as possible.
histograms, would reveal those generators, belonging to In this connection, the basic data to be considered in the
each associated PMU area, that present the highest frequency. MC-based simulation, and which have to be previously
Additionally, since the area arrangement may change prepared by the system operator, are: (i) short-term
depending on the contingency, it is necessary to determine forecasting of nodal loads; (ii) short-term unit commitment;
those critical perturbations that cause a significant change in (iii) short-term system topology; and (iv) occurrence of
generator coherency. For this purpose, it is suggested to use three phase short circuits in transmission lines, followed by
the same results of the MC-based fast coherency analysis the outage of the faulted line.
[29] for determining those cases whose results reveal a The procedure allows considering a significant number of
considerable change in coherency. Hence, a base group of possible operating scenarios, which would ensure
coherency areas (i.e. those of the highest frequency) and robustness of the regressor. In order to obtain realistic data
several alternative areas depending on the occurrence of one regarding post-contingency dynamic responses, some basic
of the critical contingencies are to be specified. considerations and modelling requirements are taken into
account:
3 Proposed approach for real-time
COI-referred rotor-angle estimation † suitable modelling of PDFs (used to randomly generate the
and TSI computation input variables considered at every MC repetition): i.e. nodal
load demand changes (based on short-term operating
A procedure to estimate COI-referred rotor angles in real time scenarios which considers daily load curves), short-term
is proposed in this section. It employs SVR to predict the unit commitment of generators, the type of contingency
area-based COI-referred rotor angles from selected PMU (e.g. short circuit and subsequent line outage), the faulted
measurements (i.e. voltage angles and magnitudes). The transmission line and the short circuit location.
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Three different daily load curves (i.e. typical residential, location generation are based on uniform distribution
typical industrial and typical commercial) are employed. function.
These typical load curves are considered to be the results of
the corresponding short-term load forecasting performed by † For every trial set of input variables, optimal power flow is
the ISO. Fig. 2 illustrates the load curves, for various carried out in order to define feasible pre-contingency
end-user classes [30], which have been used as nodal loads. steady-state scenarios. Then, time domain simulations are
Considering that, regardless of the load forecasting method, performed to determine the post-contingency dynamic data
the actual system load behaviour will always differ from that to be stored in the knowledge database (which is
obtained from forecasting, the resulted uncertain behaviour of subsequently used in the regressor training stage).
the load has to be considered. Thus, the forecasting † Since the simulation time frame depends on the stability
uncertainty has been included in the formation of the hourly phenomenon under study, a 2 s data window is selected in
nodal loads via normal (or Gaussian) distribution functions. this paper. This window definition is based on the quick
Similarly, the occurrence of three-phase short circuits is evolution of transient instability.
assumed to represent independent events, and they are † The accuracy of the regressor directly depends on the
randomly applied at different transmission lines at random suitability of the models to reproduce the phenomenon
locations, followed by the outage of the faulted line. The occurring in the real system. Thus, those components
random faulted element selection and random short-circuit having a significant role in the dynamic system
performance (generators, motors, loads, and relevant control
systems) have to be modelled with enough detail [31].
† Since the dynamic simulation at every MC repetition will
produce a tremendous amount of instantaneous data (due to
the several possible scenarios and the fast PMU updating
period of few milliseconds), a suitable technique for data
sampling has to be used. This paper further proposes a
hybrid stratified sampling technique, which is described in
the following subsection.
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be intractable. A reduction of number of samples is therefore Hybrid stratified sampling: When data can be divided into
strictly necessary. mutually disjoint parts (usually called strata), it is possible to
In view of this, a hybrid stratified sampling technique, generate a stratified sample from them by obtaining a SRS at
which combines Fuzzy C- means (FCM) cluster sampling each stratum. In this way, the method ensures obtaining a
and the simple random sampling (SRS) algorithms, is representative enough sample, mainly when the data are
proposed in this paper to perform data numerosity skewed [32]. In the application given in this paper, the
reduction. The goal is to obtain a reduced representation of strata constitute the clusters pre-defined by the FCM-based
the original data set without losing substantial information cluster sampling, which are then sampled by SRSWOR.
[32]. The proposed sampling method is schematically
illustrated in Fig. 3.
3.2 Support vector regressor (SVR) training
Fuzzy C-means-based cluster sampling: The aim of cluster
sampling is to partition the data into groups or clusters. This A function approximation task (regression) consists on
technique is more effective for data that can be organised into determining an input–output relationship using known
distinct clusters due to their high diversity, which is the case input–output pairs (xi, zi), i = 1, …, l, where xi ∈ Rn is a
of this work. When this condition happens, a clustering feature vector of inputs, zi ∈ R 1 is the target output, and l is
method (in this case FCM) is applied to the original data to the number of training data [35, 36]. In this case, the input
properly select the subsets of data that present similarities [32]. values resemble the MC dynamic data that represent the
Prior the application of FCM, principal component analysis PMU sampled voltage angles and magnitudes. These data
(PCA) [33] is firstly applied to the data matrix in order to correspond to specific computed COI values, which
reduce the dimensionality of the data, maintaining as much constitute the regressor output values.
as possible of the variation presented in them. Next, FCM Support vector regression has been chosen to perform this
is applied to the first principal component (PC) scores task since it has shown excellent performance in solving
(which present the desired explained variability [34]) in function approximation and time series prediction problems
order to determine the clusters of data representing similar [31, 35].
characteristics. Thus, the number of the chosen PCs A SVR maps the input space into the multi-dimensional
depends on the desired explained variability degree [34], feature space for determining an optimal hyper-plane (OH),
which is set to be higher than 90% in this paper. which is defined by
Simple random sampling (SRS): SRS allows a large data
set to be represented by a much smaller random sample (or
subset) of the data. This paper applies the SRS without f (x) = wT f(x) + b (8)
replacement (SRSWOR), which is created by extracting s of
the N observations of the data set (s < N ), where the where w is the n-dimensional weight vector, f(x) is the
probability of drawing any observation is 1/N, that is, all mapping function from x into the feature space, and b is the
observations are equally likely to be sampled [32]. bias term [35].
In linear regression, the square error function is commonly
optimised to achieve the best regression performance.
However, poor estimation accuracy could occur when the
residuals (r = z–f(x)) are relatively large. To overcome this
drawback, SVR usually assumes a small positive parameter
ε in order to define a piecewise linear function E(r) instead
of the square error function [35]
0 for |r| ≤ 1
E(r) = (9)
|r| − 1 otherwise
Fig. 3 Hybrid stratified sampling method Fig. 4 SVR OH and its tube
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data is within this zone. Fig. 4 depicts the ε-insensitive zone,
limited by ±ε, where the non-negative slack variables
ji and j∗i , which allow the data outside the tube to exist, are
also included.
Mathematically, the support vector regression possesses
the following optimisation problem format [36]
1 T l l
min ∗ w w+C ji + C ji∗
w,b,j,j 2 i=1 i=1
subject to w f xi + b − zi ≤ 1 + ji
T (10)
zi − wT f xi − b ≤ 1 + ji∗
ji , ji∗ ≥ 0, i = 1, . . . , l
3.2.1 MVMOS-based SVR parameter identification: Fig. 5 MVMOS-based SVR parameter identification methodology
One of the main challenges using SVR is to determine its
optimal parameters that entail good accuracy [5].
Traditionally, k-fold cross-validation (CV) procedure and summarised by (13) and (14).
grid-search methodology are used for this purpose [5, 36,
37]. This algorithm iteratively generates a grid of Minimize
parameters and obtains CV accuracy for each parameter k
2
COISystem COI
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COI
3.2.2 SVR training: Once the SVR optimal parameters
estimates that dj System [ [dlim , p]. This ‘verification
have been identified, the next step is to train the regressor.
For this purpose, the samples determined with the hybrid regressor’ has to be also adequately trained. The
stratified sampling method and the optimal parameters are ‘verification regressor’ will automatically applied starting
used. Afterwards, the regressor is validated using the COI the instant when the first regressor determines that
from
selected testing data, which simulate the real-time PMU data. dj System [ [dlim , p]. Thus, it will replace the first
In order to evaluate the performance of the regressor, the regressor in order to increase the accuracy of the estimation.
mean square error coefficient (MSE) [32] is computed. It is worth mentioning that the training of verification
MSE is the squared norm of the difference between real regressor only needs the data set corresponding to the
data and the approximation divided by the number of COISystem
elements, as shown by (15). The closer this coefficient is to outputs dj [ [dlim , p]. The focus on this more
zero, the better the accuracy of the regressor is. specific data set is the reason for obtaining better accuracy
COI
2 results in the range of interest.
COI
Another aspect to be considered is the necessity of training
dj System − d̂j System
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regressors. Fig. 11 shows a comparison between the After estimation has been carried out, the last step is to
computed (solid lines) and the estimated (dotted lines) calculate the corresponding area-based COI-referred
associated PMU COI-referred rotor angles for this case. It is rotor-angle TSIs, which enable ranking the transient
possible to appreciate the excellent regression accuracy that instability performance per area. Moreover, these indices
agrees with the obtained MSE values. might guide the selection of corrective control actions (e.g.
fast valving, generation tripping, controlled islanding, etc.)
if needed. Table 3 shows a summary of the number of
scenarios where TSI reaches a critical value specified as 0.7
in this paper (which has been determined according to MC
statistics of out-of-step relay tripping times obtained from
simulation), which can be viewed as the corrective control
triggering indicator. The concepts of security (i.e. prevent
premature or unnecessary control actions) and dependability
(i.e. perform corrective control when needed) are used for
analysing the performance of the TSI estimation.
Results from Table 3 highlight the excellent performance
and effectiveness of the proposed approach regarding
security, since it would allow precluding unnecessary
control actions. On the other hand, it implies dependability
greater than 90%, which is desirable for wide-area control
strategy.
Although the percentage of dependability is good enough
for wide-area applications, an analysis of the misdetections
will allow determining the weakness of the approach as
well as suggesting possible improvements. Namely, there
Fig. 11 Associated PMU COI-referred rotor-angles for a transient were 88 cases leading to wrong control actions. A thorough
unstable case analysis revealed that 77 of these cases correspond to the
Table 4 TSI estimation performance including area 5 and area 6 specific regressors
0 ≤ TSI < 0.7 0.7 ≤ TSI ≤ 1 Security, % Dependability, %
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fault and opening of line 22–23, with a consequent loss of
synchronism of G7. This instability cannot be monitored
from PMU 5 due to the loss of grid connectivity. Similarly,
other 7 cases correspond to the fault and opening of line
28–29 resulting in the loss of synchronism of G9, which
causes the loss of observability from PMU 6. These results
agree with the need of determining the critical branches that
have been treated in Subsection 2.2.
From the analysis, the approach has slight drawbacks when
the areas possess a poorly meshed grid that could involve
adverse implications regarding feeble PMU measurement
observability due to loss of connectivity. In order to
overcome this problem, it is recommended to train an Fig. 12 Prediction of the Pa-δ curve of the OMIB equivalent
additional specific regressor only for those cases in which
areas present poorly meshed characteristics caused by
opening of specific branches (i.e. critical branches). For the Table 5 Prediction and assessment of TS via E-SIME
system under study, two specific regressors were
additionally trained: (i) for area 5, when line 22–23 is tk, s η tu, s
triggered and (ii) for area 6, when line 28–29 is opened.
0.300 >0 —
Table 4 presents a summary of the number of cases where 0.320 −1.302 0.435
the TSI reaches critical values, considering the inclusion of 0.340 −3.531 0.430
both specific regressors. It is possible to appreciate how 0.360 −5.398 0.427
dependability increases to more than 99%, highlighting the 0.380 −6.877 0.426
0.400 −7.913 0.426
good performance of the proposed improvement to account 0.420 −8.433 0.426
for cases in which an area has poorly meshed characteristics.
It is important to highlight in this part that, as noticed at the
beginning of this subsection, some branch outages can affect
the accuracy of the regression due to the considerable change Table 5 lists values for different subsequent instants tk
of coherency or loss of connectivity. For this system, a total of (points of time at which a measurement is received) as well
eight different regressors (and their corresponding verification as the corresponding estimated unstable margin η and time
regressors), have been trained. From these regressors, six to instability tu. The results listed in the table were obtained
correspond to the associated PMU COIs and two derive after detecting an unstable condition, which occurs after
from the loss of connectivity caused by the outage of two 300 ms in this particular case. Note that the time tu, in
branches (i.e. line 22–23 and line 28–29). For this power which the instability is predicted (i.e. first negative value of
system, it did not necessary to train additional regressors for η), is considerably short (around 435 ms). Thus, for tk =
the change of coherency caused by the outage of line 2–25 300 ms, there would be approximately 135 ms remaining to
and line 6–11. perform a control action, which suggest the implementation
of a scheme at the control centre for execution of
countermeasures in an automatic manner.
From the previous results, E-SIME effectively provides
5 Discussion adequate early warning as regards TS risk, allowing also
the identification of the critical machine. Comparing these
In order to highlight the approach presented in this paper, a results with those obtained by applying the method
fair comparison is performed with the E-SIME method [16]. proposed in this paper, both methodologies are capable of
For this purpose, a case study corresponding to the fault giving early warning to the system, identifying the
and opening of line 28–29, which results in the loss of generator that is going out of step (E-SIME), or the electric
synchronism of G9, described in the previous section, is area that is losing synchronism (COI-referred rotor angles),
simulated by applying the E-SIME method. respectively.
Thus, simulations consist on the prediction of transient Although the results could be considered as equivalent, it is
instability after the occurrence of a three phase short circuit worth mentioning that while most of the information required
at 0.12 s in line 28–29 near bus 29. The prediction by E-SIME is supposed to be provided by PMUs, these
calculations start once the fault is cleared at 0.2 s and devices do not deliver information directly usable by
consider at least three measurements at the time point tk E-SIME. That is not only because they are connected to the
− 2Δt, tk − Δt and tk. high voltage buses, instead of the machines’ buses, but also
First, the critical machines are determined by means of the because they measure electrical variables (voltages and
data mining-based approach presented in [16]. After currents), while the quantities needed are machines’ rotor
identifying the critical machines (in this case G9) [16], the angles (mechanical variables) and electrical powers [17].
next step aims at determining the parameters of the OMIB, On the other hand, the proposed approach allows estimating
that is, the accelerating power Pa and rotor-angle δ at the the COI-referred rotor angles from PMUs adequately
instants tk − 2Δt, tk − Δt and tk. This task is repeated if located throughout the system, which constitutes a great
the new data of a subsequent point of time is added to the improvement as regards the E-SIME limitation.
already collected information. The resulting estimated Pa − δ
curves are illustrated in Fig. 12. These curves present better 6 Conclusions
approximations with respect to the real curve (red dotted
continuous line) when more measurement points are Real-time TSA is a fundamental task within the framework of
considered by the prediction algorithm. a self-healing grid structure. Accordingly, this paper proposes
1374 IET Gener. Transm. Distrib., 2014, Vol. 8, Iss. 8, pp. 1363–1376
& The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2014 doi: 10.1049/iet-gtd.2013.0616
www.ietdl.org
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