Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Nel 2009
Nel 2009
Abstract
The question that inevitably surfaces in practice, and certainly in lecture halls, is
which equity valuation method is superior. Popular opinion holds that academia and
investment practitioners may have different preferences in this regard. This article
investigates which primary minority and majority equity valuation methods are
advocated by academia, and how well these preferences are aligned with the equity
valuation methods that investment practitioners apply in practice. The research results
reveal that, contrary to popular belief, academia and practice are fairly well aligned in
terms of preferred equity valuation methods, with notable differences in their
respective approaches.
Keywords
Discounted cash flow Free cash flow
Discounts Majority interest
Dividend growth model Minority interest
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation Premiums
and amortisation
Equity valuation
1 Introduction
Internationally, there is a drive to ascertain how “best practitioners” value investments in
emerging markets such as South Africa. Bruner, Conroy, Estrada, Kritzman and Li
(2002:319) emphasised the need for academia and practitioners in emerging markets to
converge on mainstream valuation practices, a phenomenon that is common in developed
markets. Current corporate valuation policy, as applied in practice, provides a benchmark
for best practice for investment practitioners. It also gives academia insight into which
equity valuation methods are applied most frequently in practice. Although a
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) valuation methodology field survey, conducted among
investment practitioners in 2008, made valuable contributions in this regard, no such
research has yet been conducted among academia. The contribution of this study is that it
facilitates the convergence of, firstly, academic thinking about valuation methods, and,
1
The valuation methods included under the DCF approach may be classified in a number of ways. The
EYM could, for example, also be classified as an earnings-based, yield-based or capitalisation of
earnings approach. For the purpose of this article, however, earnings is regarded as a proxy for cash
flow and are therefore classified as a DCF approach.
t=n ε (CFt)
V0 = ∑
t
t=1 (1 + re)
Two different cash flow measures, dividends (D) and FCF, and two different proxies for
cash flows, EBITDA and earnings, are considered in this article.
t=∞ ε (Dt)
V0 = ∑
t=1 (re - g) t
Although the DYM is a straightforward application, it fails to take the growth in the value
of a share into account and is therefore not as conceptually sound as the DGM. It also
suffers from the same criticism as the DGM, in that the nature of the calculation is based on
the perpetuity principle, which is unrealistic.
t=∞ FCFEt
V0 = ∑
t=1 (re - g) t
When valuing shares in a growth company, the FCF model splits the valuation of a share
between the growth period (also known as the planning period) and the valuation of the
period beyond the planning period, referred to as the terminal value (TV). For the planning
period, the share is valued in the current time period (V0) by projecting expected future free
cash flows to equity over n years, and discounting these cash flows at the cost of equity
(re):
t=n FCFEt
V0 = ∑
t=1 (1 + re) t
The terminal value, that is, the continuing value beyond the planning period, at the end of
the planning period (TVn), which is usually calculated as the following period’s FCFE
divided by the difference between the cost of equity and the expected growth rate, is
discounted at the cost of equity (re) and added to the value obtained for the planning period.
Once the firm reaches a stable growth rate after n years, the formula becomes
When valuing the firm, as opposed to valuing the equity, the formula changes to the
following:
*FCFF = after-tax operating income + depreciation – capital expenditure – change in working capital
There are two main differences between FCFE and FCFF. Firstly, FCFE is calculated after
taking interest payments and debt cash flows into account, whereas FCFF is calculated as if
the firm has no debt, and therefore enjoys no tax benefits from interest expenses. Secondly,
the FCFE model discounts future cash flows at re, whereas FCFF is discounted at the
weighted average cost of capital (WACC).
The emphasis in the FCF model is on cash generated by the firm’s operations after taking
into account the cash required to reinvest in terms of capital expenditure and working
capital in order for the firm to achieve its growth objectives or, phrased differently, cash
flows that could be withdrawn from an entity without lowering the current growth rate
(Kamstra 2003:50). This makes the FCF model relatively flexible since the key variables
can be tailored to allow for a change in the way the company conducts its business in the
future. It also overcomes the double counting criticism against valuation methods that
discount earnings.
ε (Et)
V0 =
RoR
The EYM is similar to the DYM except that it uses earnings as a proxy for cash flows.
Although the EYM is a simple application, it is based on earnings, which may be
manipulated.
The main criticism levelled against DCF models is that they are based on the discounting
of forecast future cash flows, the estimation of which may be unreliable (Kamstra 2003:49).
The FCF approach, in particular, can be fairly cumbersome and is based on a range of
sensitive assumptions (Lie & Lie 2002:1). Consequently, valuations based on the DCF
approach are augmented by other valuation methods such as multiples, which are used
extensively in practice as plausibility checks (Bhojraj & Lee 2002:407).
Although multiples are used extensively in practice, most are criticised on the grounds that
their value drivers are based on historical accounting data such as earnings, which may be
manipulated. Wetherilt and Weeken (2002:400) even suggest that the DYM is preferred
above the P/E ratio, for example, as a result of accounting malpractices at companies,
which have raised doubts about the quality of earnings.
t=n EVAt
V0 = ∑
t=1 (1 + WACC) t
Several researchers have demonstrated the equivalence of the DCF models and EVA
models, that is, that they yield similar valuation results (Hartman 2000:163; Lundholm &
O’Keefe 2001:332; Courteau et al. 2001:655). However, the EVA model may prove
somewhat cumbersome, since numerous adjustments to profit figures may be required in
order to reach an appropriate EVA. Stern Stewart, for example, has developed more than
160 potential adjustments to derive an appropriate EVA (Biddle et al. 1999:6). Opponents
of the EVA model may argue that it is based on historical accounting figures that may be
distorted.
5 Literature review
The literature review revealed that, although a few earlier studies were devoted to a gap that
presumably exists between theory and practice with regard to investment management,
there is no research available on how well the equity valuation methods advocated by
academia are aligned with the equity valuation methods applied in practice.
(Plenborg 2001:316; Levin & Olsson 2000:17). However, studies by Penman and
Sougiannis (1998:376) and Francis, Olsson and Oswald (2000:69) suggest that, when these
assumptions are relaxed, the residual income approach yields superior results, that is, the
model performs more accurate valuations than the FCF and DGM models.
The NAV and ROT methods are not suitable primary equity valuation methods. The
NAV approach is generally used as a plausibility check to more sophisticated methods,
while the ROT methods are a quick and tainted means of establishing ranges of values for
predominantly small businesses. Although the ROT methods are inexpensive and easy to
use to value a business, they are not sound equity valuation methods and are rarely used
(Sliwoski 1999:1).
According to the PwC survey, the DCF approach (2.75) is the most popular approach to the
valuation of equity currently used in practice. The second best alternative is multiples (1.5),
followed by the net assets approach (0.75). Although the PwC survey did not specify the
methods that resided under the “Other approaches” category, this category scored an
insignificant 0.25. None of the respondents indicated that they considered/used the EVA
model.
The PwC survey identified the valuation approaches categorically and did not refer to
specific methods for minority and majority equity valuations. Hence, a comparison between
specific equity valuation methods as suggested by the respondents to the academic survey
and the specific equity valuation methods currently applied in practice, is somewhat
obscure.
Although the PwC survey neglected to distinguish between minority and majority equity
valuation methods, it did include a section on the application of discounts and premiums.
According to the PwC survey results, 60% of the respondents indicated that they apply a
minority discount to the DCF approach, while 12% and 16% apply a minority discount to
multiples and the net asset approach, respectively. Similarly, 28% of the respondents
indicated that they apply a control premium to the DCF approach, while 84% and 16%
apply a control premium to the market and the net asset approaches, respectively. Although
there are exceptions such as minority freeze-out equity valuations (Bates, Lemmon & Linck
2006:682), research supports the application of a control premium and/or a minority
discount. Graham and Lefanowicz (1999:172) found that since majorities have the ability to
control the firm’s investing, financing and operating activities, their market values include a
premium. Minority shareholder market values, however, include a discount.
6 Research methodology
In order to achieve the objective of the research, a two-pronged approach was adopted:
(1) Establish academic consensus on primary equity valuation methods.
(2) Establish how the primary equity valuation methods that were identified in (1)
compare with the methods investment practitioners apply in practice.
In order to ascertain academic consensus on primary equity valuation methods, in 2008 a
survey was conducted at 12 universities in South Africa. The PwC survey will be used as a
reflection of the preferences of investment practitioners in the marketplace.
or almost always be used in practice, that is, the percentage of respondents who answered 3
or 4.
Multiples
Rules of thumb
Other
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
It is evident from Figure 2 that academia have a preference for dividend-based methods.
The majority (51%) of the academic survey respondents indicated that the DGM should be
used most frequently in practice. A close second choice was the DYM, at 49%.
The FCF model was the third best alternative, garnering 40% support from the
respondents. This model is based on free cash flows, which minorities are not generally
entitled to (Damodaran 2007:13). Majority stakeholders control the assets and operations of
a company, whereas minorities are only entitled to dividends and capital growth on their
shareholdings.
According to 38% of academia, multiples should be used frequently in the valuation of a
minority equity stake. A surprising result was that 31% of the respondents in academia
agree that the EYM, which is based on future earnings to derive a value for equity, should
be used as a primary minority equity valuation method. Apart from the fact that the EYM is
based on company earnings, which minorities are not entitled to, the discounting of
earnings is conceptually incorrect. Methods that garnered little support from respondents
were the NAV (25%), the EVA model (18%), ROT (15%) and the EBITDA cash flow
model (15%).
Multiples
Rules of thumb
Other
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
As illustrated in Figure 3, the majority of academia is in agreement that the four majority
equity valuation methods that should be used most frequently in practice are the FCF
model, the EYM, the EBITDA cash flow model and multiples. Since 90% of the
respondents indicated that the FCF model should be used most frequently in practice, it is
the undisputed method of choice.
Distant second, third and fourth best alternatives are the EYM, the EBITDA cash flow
model and multiples, according to 61%, 58% and 55% of respondents, respectively. The
EYM and EBITDA cash flow models are surprising choices. The EYM is based on future
earnings to derive a value for equity, which leads to double counting, and is therefore
conceptually incorrect. In a similar vein, the EBITDA cash flow model uses EBITDA as a
proxy for cash flow, resulting in various shortcomings (highlighted in section 4.1.3) and
ultimately leading to the overvaluation of equity.
Academia demonstrated fairly strong support for the EVA model, as 48% of the
academic survey respondents indicated that the EVA model should be used frequently in
practice. Only 34% of the respondents indicated that the NAV method should be used as a
primary method for valuing a majority stake in a company. Methods that garnered little or
no support from academia were ROT (10%), the DGM (3%) and the DYM (0%). The ROT
method is not a conceptually sound basis for equity valuations, while the DGM and the
DYM are essentially minority equity valuation methods.
8 Gap analysis
8.1 Similarities
Academia and investment practitioners agree that DCF valuation methods are superior.
Academia’s top three methods of choice for both minority and majority equity valuations
are DCF models, which corresponds with the view of investment practitioners, who
indicated that the DCF method is the superior approach to equity valuation (frequency score
of 2.75).
Aside from the DCF method, multiples, which academia appear to prefer as a majority
equity valuation method (see Table 1), were the only equity valuation method surveyed,
which the majority (55%) of academia agreed should be used frequently in practice. This
sentiment is shared by investment practitioners, who indicated that multiples are their
second most popular method of choice (frequency score of 1.5).
Academia and investment practitioners also concur on the popularity of the NAV
approach, since 25 to 34% of academia are of the opinion that the net asset approach should
be used frequently, compared to a frequency score of 0.75, according to the PwC survey.
8.2 Differences
Two major discrepancies between academia and practice relate to the use of the EVA
model and academia’s preference for certain methods as either minority or majority
valuation methods.
Only 18% of the respondents from academia indicated that the EVA model should be
used frequently in practice as a minority equity valuation method, while 48% indicated that
the EVA model should be used frequently in practice as a majority equity valuation
method. This is in sharp contrast to the evidence from practice, because none of the
investment practitioners indicated that they used/considered the EVA model to value
equity. The EVA approach scored a zero out of a potential 3 in the PwC survey, despite
evidence from research indicating the equivalence of the EVA model to the DCF approach.
The other major difference in the approach to equity valuations is that investment
practitioners do not appear to identify specific methods for majority and minority equity
valuations, but rather opt to apply minority discounts or control premiums. Approximately
84% of the respondents to the PwC survey indicated that they applied control premiums to
multiples, while 60% reported that they applied minority discounts to the DCF approach,
for example (PwC 2008:46).
Lecturers, however, appear to advocate specific methods in their lecture halls, depending
on the equity interest at stake. Table 1 indicates the preference that academia have for
certain methods as majority valuation methods vis-à-vis minority valuation methods, and
vice versa. The preference factor in the last column quantifies the magnitude of academic
preference for the specific valuation method as a majority, vis-à-vis a minority valuation
method, or vice versa.
It is evident from Table 1 that academia prefer the DYM, the DGM and ROT as minority
valuation methods, and the remaining methods as majority valuation methods. Academia
appear to have a strong preference (preference factor of 95% or more) for the DYM, the
DGM, the EBITDA cash flow model, the EVA model, the FCF model and the EYM as
either minority or majority valuation methods, whereas the preference factor for ROT,
multiples and NAV is less significant.
The top three minority and majority equity valuation methods favoured by academia are
DCF methods. The DCF approach should always be considered as the method of choice
when valuing the equity of a going concern. This is well supported by research, which has
established the superiority of the DCF approach (Goedhart et al. 2005:1; Courteau et al.
2003:24; Berkman et al. 2000:81).
Although particular DCF methods were not specified in the PwC survey, academia
indicated a strong preference for the FCF model as a majority valuation method, while the
DGM was the only minority valuation method that garnered support from the majority of
academia. In terms of specific applications in the DCF approach, academia prefer the DGM
as the method of choice for valuing a minority interest. However, in the author’s opinion,
the DGM is not the most suitable valuation method for valuing a minority interest. If the
information is available, the method of choice should be the FCF method. The author does
concede, however, that the DGM is a far superior method to the DYM, which, in the
author’s opinion, is a poor valuation method and should be avoided.
In a perfect world, one may be tempted to argue that valuation methods other than the
DCF approach should be regarded as secondary valuation methods. However, there are
occasions when the availability of information may be limited, which may render a DCF
approach inapplicable. In such instances, valuation methods such as multiples may be used
as primary valuation methods.
The level of academic support in favour of valuation methods such as the EYM and the
EBITDA cash flow model was somewhat surprising. The EYM and the EBITDA cash flow
models discount earnings to derive an equity value, a practice which is conceptually flawed.
Also surprising was investment practitioners’ total disregard for the use of the EVA model.
Despite the fact that academia indicated a significant preference for the use of the EVA
model, and the confirmation of its accuracy as a valuation instrument by research,
investment practitioners indicated that they never use the EVA model.
The use of control premiums and minority discounts, although not explicitly tested in the
academic survey, is applied extensively in practice. Approximately 84% of the respondents
to the PwC survey indicated that they applied control premiums to multiples, while 60%
reported that they applied minority discounts to the DCF approach, for example. The
practice of arriving at a value for a minority interest by applying a discount to an equity
value calculated by means of a majority equity valuation method is not a conceptually
sound approach to equity valuations. Likewise, adding a premium to an equity value
calculated by means of a minority equity valuation method is equally flawed. Proponents of
the application of discounts and premiums do not appear to take cognisance of the fact that
there are conceptual differences between majority and minority equity valuation methods,
and the application of a discount to a majority valuation in an attempt to arrive at a value
for a minority interest will not necessarily address these differences. Although academia
may need to emphasise the fact that minority discounts and control premiums are used
extensively in practice, they would do well to indicate that this is not an accurate approach
to valuing a specific minority or majority equity stake.
The research results provide insight and a guideline to finance lecturers and investment
practitioners, in terms of academia’s perception of preferred equity valuation methods. This
study may be viewed as a first step to converge academic thinking on valuation methods.
The second step entails the convergence of mainstream valuation practices between
academia and investment practitioners. The research indicates that, although there are
notable differences, theory and practice are fairly well aligned regarding primary equity
valuation methods. Whether this holds true for secondary equity valuation methods and the
calculation of discount rates is a topic for future research.
Bibliography
Abukari, K., Jog, V. & McConomy, B.J. 2000. The role and the relative importance of
financial statements in equity valuation. Working paper. Ontario: Wilfred Laurier
University:1-36.
Bates, T.W., Lemmon, T.W. & Linck, J.S. 2006. Shareholder wealth effects and bid
negotiation in freeze-out deals: are minority shareholders left out in the cold? Journal of
Financial Economics. Elsevier 81:681-708.
Berkman, H., Bradhury, M.E. & Ferguson, J. 2000. The accuracy of price earnings and
discounted cash flow methods of IPO equity valuations. Journal of International
Financial Management and Accounting 11(2):71-83.
Biddle, G.C., Bowen, R.M & Wallace, J.S. 1999. Evidence on EVA. Journal of Applied
Corporate Finance:1-19.
Bernstein, W.J. 2008. Fifty years from now. http://www.efficientfrontier.com. Accessed:
18 March 2009.
Bhojraj, S. & Lee, M.C. 2002. Who is my peer? A valuation-based approach to the
selection of comparable companies. Journal of Accounting Research 40(2):407-439.
Bruner, F., Conroy, R.M., Estrada, J., Kritzman, M. & Li, W. 2002. Introduction to
”Valuation in emerging markets”. Emerging Markets Review 3. Charlottesville:
Elsevier:300-324.
Cheng, C.S.A. & McNamara, R. 2000. The valuation accuracy of the price-earnings and
price-book benchmark valuation methods. Review of Quantitative Finance and
Accounting 15. The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic:349-370.
Courteau, L., Kao, J. & Richardson, G.D. 2001. The equivalence of dividend, cash flow and
residual earnings approaches to equity valuation employing ideal terminal value
calculations. Contemporary Accounting Research 18:625-661.
Courteau, L., Kao, J.L., O’Keefe, T. & Richardson, G.D. 2003. Gains to valuation accuracy
of direct valuation over sector multiplier approaches. Working paper. Turkey: Eastern
Mediterranean University:1-46.
Damodaran, A. 2002. Investment valuation: tools and techniques for determining the value
of any asset. 2nd edition. New York: Wiley:11-24.
Damodaran, A. 2007. Valuation approaches and metrics: a survey of the theory and
evidence. 2nd edition. Hanover, Mass: Now:3-44.
English, J.R. 2001. Applied equity analysis: stock valuation techniques for Wall Street
professionals. 1st edition. New York: McGraw-Hill:1-20.
Fernández, P. 2001. Valuation using multiples. How do investment practitioners reach their
conclusions? Working paper. Madrid: IESE Business School:1-13.
Francis, J., Olsson J.A. & Oswald, D. 2000. Comparing the accuracy and explainability of
dividend, free cash flow and abnormal earnings equity value estimates. Journal of
Accounting Research 38(1):45-70.
Graham, R.C. & Lefanowicz, C.E. 1999. Majority and minority ownership
of publicly-traded firms: a test of the value of control using market
multiples. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 26(1) & (2), March:1-28.
Goedhart, M., Koller, T. & Wessels, D. 2005. The right role for multiples in valuation. The
McKinsey Quarterly, March. New York: McKinsey & Company:1-3.
Harrington, C. 2004. Private equity valuation: a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an
enigma. CFA Magazine. November. CFA Institute:44-45.
Hartman, J.C. 2000. On the equivalence of net present value and economic value added as
measures of a project’s economic worth. The Engineering Economist 45:158-165.
Hendrikse, J.W. & Hendrikse, L.H. 2004. The valuations handbook: concepts and cases.
Cape Town: Lexus Nexus Butterworths:41-66.
Kamstra, M. 2003. Pricing firms on the basis of fundamentals. Federal Reserve Bank of
Atlanta: Economic Review 1st quarter:49-70.
Kim, M. & Ritter, J. 1999. Valuing IPOs. Journal of Financial Economics 53:409-437.
Levin, J. & Olsson, P. 2000. Terminal value techniques in equity valuation: implications of
the steady state assumption. Working paper:1-26.
Lie, E. & Lie, H. 2002. Multiples used to estimate corporate value. Financial Analysts
Journal 58(2):March/April:1-11.
Liu, J., Nissim, D. & Thomas, J. 2001. Equity valuation using multiples. Journal of
Accounting Research 40(1), March:135-172.
Liu, J., Nissim, D. & Thomas, J. 2002. International equity valuation using multiples.
Working paper:1-38.
Lundholm, R. & O’Keefe, T. 2001. Reconciling value estimates from the discounted cash
flow model and the residual income model. Contemporary Accounting Research 18:
311-335.
Penman, S. & Sougiannis, T. 1998. A comparison of dividend, cash flow and earnings
approaches to equity valuation. Contemporary Accounting Research 15(3):343-383.
Plenborg, T. 2001. Firm valuation: comparing the residual income and discounted cash
flow approaches. Scandinavian Journal of Management 18:303-318.
Pratt, S.P. 2006. The market approach to valuing businesses. 2nd edition. Englewood
Cliffs, NJ: Wiley:1-23.
PricewaterhouseCoopers. 2008. Valuation methodology survey. http://www.pwc.com:1-62.
Accessed: 10 February 2009.
Ralston, N. 2003. Overview: equity valuation in a global context. AIMR conference
proceedings, April. CFA Institute:1-4.
Sliwoski, L.J. 1999. Alternatives to business valuation rules of thumb for small businesses.
The National Public Accountant:1-4.
Smith, V.K. & Goudzwaard, M.B. 1970. Survey of investment management: teaching and
practice. Journal of Finance 25:329-347.
Triantis, A. 2005. Realizing the potential of real options: does theory meet practice?
Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 17(2):8-16.
Upton, R.M. 1949. Conference on the teaching of business finance. Journal of Finance 4:
summary statement.
Volker, H. & Richter, F. 2003. Pricing with performance-controlled multiples.
Schmalenbach Business Review 55:194-219.
Wendt, P.F. 1966. What should we teach in an investment course? Journal of Finance
21:416-422.
Wetherilt, A.V. & Weeken, O. 2002. Equity valuation measures: what can they tell us?
Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin:391-403.
Annexure A
Acronym/Abbreviation Description
CI Capital invested
D Dividend
DCF Discounted cash flow
DGM Dividend growth model
DYM Dividend yield model
EBITDA Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation
EPS Earnings per share
ε (Dt) Expected dividend in year t
ε (Et) Expected earnings in year t
EVA Economic value added
EYM Earnings yield model
FCF Free cash flow
FCFE Free cash flow to equity
FCFF Free cash flow to the firm
g Expected growth rate in perpetuity
NAV Net asset value
P/E Price/earnings
PwC PricewaterhouseCoopers
Re Cost of equity
ROI Return on investment
RoR Required rate of return
ROT Rule of thumb
SAICA South African Institute of Chartered Accountants
TV Terminal value
V0 Value of a share in the current time period
WACC Weighted average cost of capital