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6 EDITORIAL DELHI
The spectre of a postCOVID19 world
The pandemic could not have come at a more diffi cult time; the global order could see major changes
the human costs keep mounting. power that it once was, it is hardly Another fallout from the cur
Still, it is important to think of in retreat. It is, without doubt, in rent epidemic might well be the
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not have come at a more diffi cult its retreat from Afghanistan after a population, facing a common ma
Symbolism has its place, but it time. The world was already hav dubious accord with the Afghan laise. Countries lacking a compre
must be part of a sustainable action plan M.K. Narayanan ing to contend with an uncertain Taliban, but this was not the end hensive nationwide health system
economic environment, with in of the road as far as U.S. power was would fi nd this an even more diffi
F
ull of sound and piety but signifying little, Prime
Minister Narendra Modi’s third and latest address dustries in turn facing newer chal concerned. cult situation to handle. Mean
A
s COVID19 spreads expo lenges such as having to adjust to a Post COVID19, however, and gi time, as the economy weakens, ac
to the nation on the COVID19 pandemic hardly
nentially across the world, shift from cost effi ciencies to inno ven that the U.S. is among the companied by job losses, those
calmed frayed nerves. Anxieties triggered by the pan and the fi gures of those test vation and breakthrough improve countries badly aff ected by this without high levels of skills would
demic are on the rise among all sections of society. The ing positive as also the numbers of ments. Added to this were: a glo measures to mitigate the econom pandemic, together with existing fall further behind.
lockdown enforced on March 24 has brought the econo deaths keep increasing in nearge bal slowdown, increasing political ic hardship engendered by the uncertainties aff ecting its fi nancial This is evident to some extent
my to a halt: small businesses are bleeding, and compa ometrical progression, profound and policy uncertainties, altera pandemic, and fi nally a three markets, the U.S. can be expected already given recent reports of
nies are scurrying to keep their heads above water. Mi uncertainty and extreme volatility tions in social behaviour, new en weeklong lockdown. Several pre to step back even further — from mass migration across the Indian
grant labourers are stranded and hungry; health are wreaking havoc of a kind sel vironmental norms, etc. Newly cautionary measures based on gui one of assertion to neutrality in landmass. Out of work migrant la
dom encountered previously. It emerging economies, such as In delines in vogue elsewhere in the global aff airs. bour, unable to fi nd new jobs since
workers and security personnel are already stretched.
might, hence, be wise to start dia, were even more aff ected by all world for preventing pandemics of Already, U.S. command of the they lack the necessary skills, are
The extent of the pandemic itself remains uncertain, thinking of what next, if at least to this, than some of the older esta this kind, have also been intro global commons has weakened. attempting to return to their nor
meanwhile. It is only natural that 130 crore Indians, the try and handle a situation created blished ones. duced including ‘home isolation’, Meantime, China and Russia have mal habitat, bringing in their wake
audience that the Prime Minister calls out to in all his by the most serious pandemic in ‘home quarantine’, etc. strengthened their relationship, untold suff ering and, perhaps
speeches, have a lot of angst regarding all this. They did recent centuries. Prognosis for India The prognosis as to what lies and improved their asymmetric even the spread of the virus. This
expect a reassuring action plan from the Prime Minister At one point, India was estimated ahead is indeed bleak. On the eco capabilities. The challenge from has all the makings of a huge hu
and a clear picture of the challenge ahead. They expect China’s pivotal role to be among the 15 most aff ected nomic plane, according to most China is becoming more obvious man tragedy. Existing curbs on
The problem with the novel coro economies by the COVID19 epi experts, a global recession seems by the day — measured by purchas their movement would further ex
ed some clarity on the postlockdown course for the
navirus is that with the exception demic, but as the pandemic has inevitable. Uncertainty, panic and ing power parity, the U.S. is not acerbate the problem, and could
country. They hoped for more mitigation measures, of China, which battled another raged unchecked, all bets are off . lockdown policies are expected to the largest economy in the world even lead to a major law and order
beyond those announced by the Finance Minister and coronavirus epidemic in 2003 — An early estimate by the Asian De cause demand worldwide to de as of now. Even more daunting situation.
the Reserve Bank of India Governor. Chief executives of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syn velopment Bank, soon after the cline in a precipitous way. This from a U.S. standpoint, and also
many democracies have personally addressed the peo drome (SARS) epidemic — there is epidemic was declared, was that it will inevitably lead to a vicious representing a seachange from Digital factor
ple with detailed and material plans of action since the little available for most nations on would cost the Indian economy downward cycle, where compa the recent past, Russia has be One possible, and unexpected, as
outbreak. They have also kept the interaction alive, and which to base their assessment of $29.9 billion. A recent industry es nies close down, resulting in more come far more economically and pect of the COVID19 epidemic
twoway. The political leadership at the Centre has lar what next. What is known is that timate pegs the cost of the lock layoff s and a further drop in con politically stable and an important could be the thrust it could pro
China’s growth rate has further down at around $120 billion or 4% sumption. A precipitous decline in power broker in West Asia. These vide to ‘digital authoritarianism’.
gely remained aloof. Mr. Modi himself continues with
plummeted, even as it was con of India’s GDP. The Confederation GDP would follow. To compensate shifts cannot but, and are likely to, China’s authoritarian methods
his monologues, shunning all questions. fronting an economic slowdown of Indian Industry (CII) had at one for this loss, massive infl ows of go have a direct impact on the liberal seem to have helped it to contain
Rhetoric to rally the nation in a moment of crisis can which had been in the works for point warned that the COVID19 vernment funds would be needed, international order. It could, in the spread of the virus — at least
actually do good. Unifying and galvanising the country some time. The consequences for impact, and the existing stress in but most governments, India in turn, give a boost to authoritarian for the time being. Somewhat simi
is very critical in combating the pandemic. To the ex the global economy of China ceas the fi nancial sector, meant that In cluded, might fi nd it diffi cult to regimes and authoritarian trends. lar tactics are being employed by
tent that it sought to achieve those goals, the Prime Mi ing to be the world’s biggest expor dia would require up to six months fi nd adequate resources for this some other countries as well. In
nister’s message was purposeful. But gong and cymbals ter of manufactured goods are even after the entire course of the purpose. Equally important, if not Social concerns turn, leaders across many nations
considerable, and with no country COVID19 epidemic is over to res more so, is that such massive in Moving away from the political may fi nd China’s methods, and the
that drown out substantive conversations can be coun
in a position to replace it, this de tore normalcy and business conti fl ows of funds (if they are to be ef and economic consequences of embracing of technology to refash
terproductive. If the pandemic itself was not mindbog velopment will precipitate a furth nuity. fective) should be here and now, COVID19 are other concerns aris ion authoritarianism for the mod
gling enough, now the country has a unique puzzle to er economic downturn interna India has, no doubt, acted with and not later, by which time the ing from an extended lockdown, ern age irresistible, and a standard
resolve — which is about the nineminute light ceremo tionally. speed in the wake of the pandemic situation may well have spiralled social distancing and isolation. to be adapted, even if they profess
ny at 9 p.m. on Sunday, April 5, that the Prime Minister It is not the intention here to mi and declared a lockdown early on. out of control. Global coordination Psychologists are even talking of to be democratic. The rise of digi
has called for. Unsurprisingly, an industry has instantly nimise the human costs of the tra Prime Minister Narendra Modi de was a must in the extant situation. an ‘epidemic of despair’ arising tal autocracies could lead to digital
sprung up online interpreting the choice of number gedy that has unfolded, and which clared the pandemic as a serious from a fear of unknown causes, re repression, and in the age of AIpo
is still unfolding, consequent on global crisis, and in the course of Pandemic as disrupter sulting in serious anxiety and wered surveillance, create a ca
nine as a stroke of celestial genius, forcing the Press In
COVID19. If China was the worst two national broadcasts in mid COVID19 is, in turn, expected to mental problems. Extended isola pacity for predictive control, or
formation Bureau to issue a clarifi cation. “Don’t fall for aff ected nation initially, the United March, announced a series of bring about major changes in the tion, according to psychologists, what is often referred to as ‘social
the rumours and unscientifi c reasoning on the appeal States, Spain, Germany and Italy steps such as a one day ‘peoples global order. Some of these chang can trigger a diff erent kind of pan management’.
for lighting diya…,” it said. The Prime Minister himself have since eclipsed China. Many curfew’ (on March 22) ‘social dis es have, no doubt, been in the demic even leading to possible sui
has repeatedly asked people to stay away from rumours other countries are today facing a tancing’, the setting up of a CO making for some time, but would cidal tendencies, fi ts of anger, de M.K. Narayanan, is a former National
and misinformation about the pandemic, and rely only serious plight, and few, if any, re VID19 Taskforce under the Fi get accelerated. As of now, though pression, alcoholism and Security Adviser and a former Governor
on trusted media platforms. Mr. Modi has a formidable medies are as yet available even as nance Minister to come up with the U.S. is no longer the global eccentric behavioural patterns. of West Bengal
following among the Indian public and his words carry
weight. But no country can talk its way out of a pan
demic and an economic collapse. If words are all one
has, the virus is not going to be kind. Nor is an economy
Only through the prism of science
going to stop its free fall at the sight of candles. Symbo India needs its top leader to make people realise why science has no substitute in the battle against COVID19
lism is infused with meaning only through correspond
to urgently understand how mi State for Human Resource Deve community spread of the virus? If
ing action.
crobiology impacts public health. lopment, Satyapal Singh, called they did not, then why did the
The Central and State govern the theory of evolution ‘scientifi Prime Minister tweet the next day
A million and counting ments are making huge eff orts to
give us a crash course on the
cally wrong’ and demanded its re
moval from the school curricula.
that many people had not taken
the lockdown seriously?
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O
n April 2, the number of novel coronavirus ries the most weight. In this hour science. implausible that it happened be
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(SARSCoV2) infections in 181 countries/regions n Friday, April 3, Prime Mi of national crisis, India needs its Although this ecosystem has cause his message was interpreted
crossed one million, and deaths passed 50,000. nister Narendra Modi made top leader to make the people real been around for long, it has by groups of people infl uenced by
On April 3, the total number of cases and deaths stood his third COVID19 address ise why science has no substitute strengthened in recent years. the present antiscience ecosys
at 10,39,166 and 55,092, respectively. With 2,45,646 cas to the nation. To raise the people’s in battling the virus. How has Mr. the war of the scale described in Chief Ministers, Union and State tem. Dozens of pseudoscientifi c
morale, Mr. Modi asked them to Modi fared as a promoter of scien the epic took place. Or that “mi Ministers, lawmakers, fi lm perso solutions to the pandemic are
es, the U.S. accounts for 24% of the global total, while
light up candles, diyas (lamps), tifi c temper? raculous weapons and chariots nalities, businesspersons, gurus fl oating within this ecosystem. Af
Italy, with 13,915 deaths, has over 26% of total mortality. torchlights and mobile fl ashlights In October 2014, the Prime Mi were the norm”. and other notables with large pu ter Mr. Modi’s Friday morning ad
Four countries — the U.S., Italy, Spain and Germany — for 9 minutes at 9 p.m. this Sun nister made two claims linking cut The Prime Minister’s 2014 re blic following have repeatedly dress, claims about the prowess of
have more cases reported than China. The exponential day. Soon after his address, the ci tingedge life sciences to Indian marks mixed up science and made pseudoscientifi c statements. light to fi ght the virus have begun
increase becomes striking considering that the time ta tizens outreach portal of the Go myths, including the Mahabhara- mythology, and sent out the fol Science gatherings have been used circulating on social media. The
ken to report 1,00,000 more cases has been reducing. vernment of India tweeted a video ta. In a speech delivered in Hindi, lowing public message: our epics to peddle such ideas. And public Prime Minister has for years had
If it took 12 days to double to 2,00,000, it took just three explaining the ‘science’ behind he said that Karna’s birth was a re are historical truths; the fantasies defenders of science have been the authority to crack down on
the Prime Minister’s request. sult of stem cell science and tech within them are records of our an marginalised. this ecosystem. We would have
days each to cross 0.3 and 0.4 million. Thereafter, 0.1
The video had a former presi nology. He also said that the cient accomplishments in cutting been better placed in the fi ght
million more cases have been reported every two days dent of the Indian Medical Asso world’s fi rst plastic surgery was edge science and technology; and Dispelling the darkness against COVID19 had he done so.
except on two occasions — the increase from 0.6 million ciation claiming that the request performed on Ganesha, giving the since the ‘knowledge’ they contain It is not surprising therefore that a And thus, the challenge: we are
to 0.7 million and 0.9 million to 1 million happened in a was based on a yogic ‘principle of deity his elephant head. And, he has come down to us as part of our ‘theory’ that sound vibrations kill confronting a pandemic that only
single day. Yet, the cases reported so far might be a collective consciousness’. The made these remarks while inaugu unbroken tradition, our indige the virus recently found a large science and technology can fi ght
small percentage of the actual numbers in most coun doctor said that if the people col rating a hospital in Mumbai. nous wisdom can solve the pro number of takers. Nothing but the in an ecosystem rife with belief in
tries. The main limiting factor in knowing the true lectively thought that they would blems that the life sciences cur acceptance of this myth masque pseudoscience. The 20th century
not be affl icted by the coronavirus, Invoking ‘Mahabharata’ rently face. One wonders how rading as science explains the out philosophers of science, Karl Pop
spread has been the restricted number of tests done in
then their collective conscious On March 25 this year, a day after those who believed his 2014 re rageous interpretation of the per and Imre Lakatos, argued that
most countries, India included. In about a month after ness would ensure that this hap announcing the national lock marks would have responded to Prime Minister’s call to thank the pseudoscience was a great danger
restrictions on testing were loosened, the number of pens. This, he said, was based on a down, Mr. Modi interacted with his projection of winning the war nation’s essential service provid to liberal societies. We can only
tests in the U.S. crossed one million on March 30. While ‘quantum principle’. The tweet the residents of Varanasi. Invoking against the pandemic in 2020. ers with applause, bellringing and hope that it is not irreversibly da
this may be a huge number, there is still a bottleneck in was soon deleted. But the incident the Mahabharata again, he told Since Mr. Modi’s 2014 remarks, banging of metal thalis (plates). maging India’s public health in
the number of people being tested. According to The shows how pseudoscience may be them that the Mahabharata war a number of Central and State Several groups of people hit the this moment of crisis.
Washington Post, as on March 28, only 2,250 tests per endangering India’s public health was won in 18 days and India leaders as well as lawmakers be streets on the evening of March 22
policy at this critical moment. would win its war against the virus longing to his party have peddled to ‘celebrate’ the ‘Janata Curfew’. Atul Mishra is an associate professor of
million were performed, which is twothirds of what
in 21. In his English translation of pseudoscience and untenable They practised intense social prox International Relations at Shiv Nadar
South Korea did three weeks earlier. Need for scientifi c temper the epic, Bibek Debroy, the Chair claims that fracture the backbone imity and banged metal utensils University. The views expressed are
Besides missing out those exhibiting mild symptoms At no point in its modern history of the Economic Advisory Council of the life sciences. For instance, merrily and mercilessly. Did these personal
and underreporting by countries, the actual number of has India needed its people as now to the Prime Minister, doubts that in 201718, the then Minister of actions increase the danger of the
infections might be manifold higher as most countries
have not made attempts to test those who do not show
symptoms. There is accumulating evidence suggesting
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR Letters emailed to letters@thehindu.co.in must carry the full postal address and the full name or the name with initials.
virus are asymptomatic. For instance, in South Korea, Needed, a torchbearer resilience in times of December last year, despite countries would have taken prohibition on gatherings online, scan the QR code
CM A ND-NDE
YK