Tutorial 1 - Answer

SUGGESTED ANSWER FOR TUTORIAL 1: PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION/STA408
QUESTION 1(a)
i.  P(X  x)  1
m  n  p  1 ---------- equation (1),
E (x)   xP (x)
1
1(m)  0(n)  1( p) 
4
1
m  p  ----------- equation(2)
4
E (x 2 )   x 2 P (x)
3
(1) 2 m  (0) 2 n  (1) 2 p 
4
3
m p  ----------- equation(3)
4
from equation(2);
1
m  p 
4
1
p   m ------------ equation(4)
4
Substitute equation(4) into equation(3);

3
m p 
4
1  3
m    m 
4  4
1 3
2m  
4 4
3 1
2m  
4 4
1
2m 
2
1
m
4
MFMJ (Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Science) Page 1

1
substitute m  into equation(2);
4
1
m  p 
4
1 1
 p
4 4
1 1
p 
4 4
1
p
2
1
substitute p  into equation(1);
2
m  n  p 1
1 1
 n  1
4 2
1 1
n  1 
4 2
1
n
4
ii. var( x)  E ( x 2 )   E ( x) 
2
2
3 1
var(x)    
4 4
11
var(x) 
16
QUESTION 1(b)
i. p  25%  0.25 q  1  0.25  0.75
n  20
P( X  6)  1  P( X  7)
 1  0.2142
 0.7858
ii Expectation, E ( x)  np
E ( x)  20  0.25
Varaince, Var ( x)  npq

Var ( x)  20  0.25  0.75
Var ( x)  3.75

QUESTION 1(c)
i. 1 Hour ------------   5
P( x  4)  P( X  4)  P( X  5)
 0.7350  0.5595
 0.1755
ii. if 1Hour ------------   5,
1
then, Hour ------------   2.5
2
P( X  5)  0.1088
QUESTION 1(d)
i. X N ( , 2 )
X N (476,107 2 )
 450  476 650  476 

P(450  X  650)  P  Z 
 107 107 
 P  0.24  Z  1.63
 1  P (Z  1.63)  P (Z  0.24)
 1  0.0516  0.4052
 0.5432
ii. X N (476,107 2 )
 750  476 
P( X  750)  P  Z  
 107 
 P  Z  2.56 
 0.00523
iii. X N (476,107 2 )
 500  476 
P ( X  500)  P  Z  
 107 
 P  Z  0.22 
 1  P  Z  0.22 
 1  0.4129
 0.5871
QUESTION 2(a)
i.  P( Z  z )  1
2 1 1
   1
5 3 5
2 1 1
  1  
5 3 5
1

15
ii. Mean of Z , E ( Z )   zP( Z )
 2 1 1  1 
 0    1   2    3  
 5   3   5   15 
14

15
E ( z 2 )   z 2 P( z )
2 1 1 1
 02    12    22    32  
5 3 5  15 
11
1
15
Var ( z )  E ( z 2 )   E ( z ) 
2
2
11  14 
1  
15  15 
194

225
QUESTION 2(b)
i. required medical attention; p  0.2
not required medical attention; q  0.8
n4
P( x  4)  4C4   0.8   0.2   0.4096
4 0
ii. P( x  1)  4C1   0.2   0.8  0.4096

1 3
iii. P( x  2)  P( x  2)  P( x  3)  P( x  4)
 4C2   0.2   0.8   4C3   0.2   0.8   4C4   0.2   0.8 
2 2 3 1 4 0
 0.1808
QUESTION 2(c)

i 1liter ----------   5
P( X  5)  P( X  5)  P( X  6)
 0.5595  0.3840
 0.1755
ii. if 1liter ----------   5,
then, 100ml ---------   0.5
P( X  1)  P( X  2)
 0.0902
QUESTION 2(d)
i. X N (60,52 )
note: convert the mean 1hour to 60minutes
 45  60 
P( X  45)  P  Z  
 5 
 P  Z  3
 P ( Z  3)
 0.00135
ii. X N (60,52 )
Note; Convert 1.2 Hour to 72 minutes
 72  60 
P( X  72)  P  Z  
 5 
 P  Z  2.4 
 0.00820
iii. X N (60,52 )
 56  60 61  60 
P(56  Z  61)  P  Z  
 5 5 
 P  0.8  Z  0.2 
 1  P (Z  0.8)  P (Z  0.2)
 1  0.2119  0.4207
 0.3674

QUESTION 3(a)
i. defective; p  0.10
non-defective; q  0.9
n5
P( X  0)  P( X  0)  P( X  1)
 1  0.4095
 0.5905
ii. defective; p  0.10
n  15
P( X  5)  P( X  0)  P( X  1)  P( X  2)  P( X  3)  P( X  4)
  15C0   0.1  0.9     15C1   0.1  0.9     15C2   0.1  0.9   
0 15 1 14 2 13
     
 15C3   0.13  0.9 12    15C4   0.14  0.9 11 
   
 0.9873
iii. defective; p  0.10
n  100
P(4  X  8)  P( X  5)  P( X  6)  P( X  7)
 P ( X  5)  P ( X  8)
 0.9763  0.7939
 0.1824
QUESTION 3(b)
i. if 1 minute ----------   2,
then, 2 minutes ---------   4
P( X  3)  P( X  3)  P( X  4)
 0.7619  0.5665
 0.1954
ii. if 1 minute ----------   2,
then, 5 minutes ---------   10
P( X  4)  1  P( X  5)
 1  0.9707
 0.0293

QUESTION 3(c)
i. X  
N  , 2
X N 175, 20 
2
 250  175 
P ( X  250)  P  Z  
 20 
 P ( Z  3.75)
 0.000088
ii. X 
N 175, 202 
 150  175 210  175 
P(150  X  210)  P  Z 
 20 20 
 P (1.25  Z  1.75)
 1  P (Z  1.25)  P (Z  1.75)
 1  0.1056  0.0401
 0.8543
iii. X 
N 175, 202 
P( X  x)  0.03
 x  175 
PZ    0.03
 20 
Z 0.03  1.8808
compare between P ( Z  1.8808)  0.03 and P ( Z  -1.8808)  0.03. which equation is TRUE?
P( Z  -1.8808)  0.5, hence P ( Z  -1.8808)  0.03 is not TRUE.
x  175
  1.8808
20
x  1.8808  20   175
x  212.62
the minimum number of words per minute a student would have to read in order
to get the award is 213

QUESTION 4(a)
i. P( X  1)  P( X  2)  P( X  3)  P( X  4)  P( X  5)  1
1 1 1 1 1
    1
k k k k k
5
1
k
5 k
k  25
ii. j 1 2 3 4 5
P( J  j ) 1 1 1 1 1
5 5 5 5 5
iii. E ( J )   jP( J  j )
1 1 1 1 1
 1   2    3    4    5  
5 5 5 5 5
3
E ( J 2 )   j 2 P( J  j )
1 1 1 1 1
 12    22    32    42    52  
5 5 5 5 5
 11
Var ( J )  E ( J 2 )   E ( J ) 
2
 11   3
2
2

QUESTION 4(b)
i never solved  0.8
solved  0.2
n6
probability solved; p  0.2 ; q  0.8
P( X  2)  P( X  0)  P ( X  1)  P( X  2)
  6C0   0.2   0.8     6C1   0.2   0.8     6C2   0.2   0.8  
0 6 1 5 2 4
     
 0.9011
ii. probability solved; p  0.2 ; q  0.8
P( X  6)   6C6   0.2   0.8  
6 0
 
 0.000064
ii. never solved  0.8
solved  0.2
n6
Expected, E ( X )  np
 6  0.2
 1.2
Standard Deviation  npq

 6  0.2  0.8
 0.980
QUESTION 4(c)
i. if 1minute ---------   0.9,
then, 2minutes ---------   1.8
P( X  2)  0.5372
ii. if 1minute ---------   0.9,
then, 4minutes ---------   3.6
P( X  1)  P( X  1)  P( X  2)
 0.9727  0.8743
 0.0984

QUESTION 4(d)
i. X  
N  , 2
X N  200, 2 
2
 197  200 
P( X  197)  P  Z  
 2 
 P ( Z  1.5)
 P ( Z  1.5)
 0.0668
ii. X 
N 200, 22 
 198.5  200 199.5  200 
P(198.5  X  199.5)  P  Z 
 2 2 
 P( 0.75  Z  0.25)
 P( Z  0.25)  P( Z  0.75)
 0.40 13  0.2266
 0.1747
QUESTION 4(e)
X  
N  , 2
X  N  u, 6  2
P( X  82)  0.0478
 82  u 
PZ    0.0478
 6 
Z 0.0478  1.67
compare between P ( Z  1.67)  0.0478 and P ( Z  -1.67)  0.0478. which equation is TRUE?
since P( Z  1.67)  0.5, hence P( Z  1.67)  0.03 is not TRUE.
82  u
  1.67
6
u  82  1.67  6 
u  92.02
Hence, the mean is 92.02

QUESTION 5(a)
i. P( X  0)  P( X  1)  P( X  2)  P( X  3)  1
k  0  k 1  k  2  k  3  1
2 2 2 2
k  4k  9 k  1
1
k
14
ii. P(0.5  X  3)  P( X  1)  P( X  2)
1 4
 
14 14
5

14
iii. E ( X )   xP( X  x)
1  4 9
 0  0   1   2    3  
 14   14   14 
 2.571
iv. E ( X 2 )   x 2 P( X  x)
1  4  9
 02  0   12    22    32  
 14   14   14 
7
Var ( X )  E ( X 2 )   E ( X ) 
2
 7   2.571
2
 0.39
QUESTION 5(b)
i. head, 0.5
Tail, 0.5
Probability Tail, p  0.5 ; q  0.5 ; n  20
P( X  10)  P( X  10)  P( X  11)
 0.5881  0.4119
 0.1762
ii. Probability Tail, p  0.5 ; q  0.5 ; n  20
P( X  12)  1  P( X  13)
 1  0.1316
 0.8684

QUESTION 5(c)
i. if 1week ---------   4,
then, 2week --------   8
P( X  3)  1  P( X  4)
 1  0.9576
 0.0424
ii. 1week ---------   4
P(2  X  5)  P( X  2)  P( X  5)
 0.9084  0.3712
 0.0.5372
QUESTION 5(d)
i. X  
N  , 2
X N  40, 6.3 
2
 32  40 
P ( X  32)  P  Z  
 6.3 
 P ( Z  1.27)
 1  P ( Z  1.27)
 1  0.1020
 0.898
ii. X 
N 40, 6.32 
 37  40 49  40 
P(37  X  49)  P  Z 
 6.3 6.3 
 P (0.48  Z  1.43)
 1  P (Z  0.48)  P (Z  1.43)
 1  0.3156  0.0764
 0.608

QUESTION 6(a)
i. Correct Answer  0.2
Incorrect Answer  0.8
n8
probability incorrect; p  0.8 ; q  0.2
P( X  8)   8C8   0.8   0.2  
8 0
 
 0.168
ii. probability correct; p  0.2 ; q  0.8
P( X  6)  P( X  7)  P( X  8)
  8C7   0.2   0.8     8C8   0.2   0.8  
7 1 8 0
   
 0.0000845
QUESTION 6(b)
i. 1day ---------   0.2
P( X  1)  0.1813
ii. 1day ---------   0.2
P( X  2)  1  P( X  3)
 1  0.0011
 0.99989
iii. if 1day ---------   0.2,
then, 20days ---------   4
P( X  2)  P( X  2)  P( X  3)
 0.9084  0.7619
 0.1465

QUESTION 6(c)
i. X 
N  , 42 
P ( X  84.6)  0.9918
 84.6   
PZ    0.9918
 4 
Note: since P( Z  84.6) greater than 0.5,
84.6  
hence, must be positive value, so   84.6
4
 84.6   
 1 P  Z    0.9918
 4 
 84.6   
PZ    1  0.9918
 4 
 84.6   
PZ    0.0082
 4 
Z 0.0082  2.40
84.6  
must be positive value, hence,
4
84.6  
  2.4
4
  84.6   2.4  4 
  75
Hence, the mean is 75
so that;
 70  75 80  75 
P (70  X  80)  P  Z  
 4 4 
 P  1.25  Z  1.25
 1   2  P  Z  1.25 
 1  2(0.1056)
 0.7888

QUESTION 6(d)
i. X 
N 600, 202 
 580  600 605  600 
P(580  X  605)  P  Z 
 20 20 
 P  1  Z  0.25
 1  P  Z  0.25  P  Z  1
 1  0.4013  0.1587
 0.44
ii. P ( X  k )  0.08
 k  600 
PZ    0.08
 20 
Note: since P( X  k ) less than 0.5,
k  600
hence, is a positive,
20
Z 0.008  2.4089
k  600
20
k  600
  2.4089
20
k   2.4089  20   600
k  648.178 gram
QUESTION 7(a)
i. 1week ---------   2.5
P( X  5)  0.1088
ii. 1week ---------   2.5
P( X  5)  1  P( X  6)
 1  0.0420
 0.988
iii. 1week ---------   2.5
4weeks -------   10
P( X  10)  1  P  X  10 
 1  0.5421
 0.4576

QUESTION 7(b)
i. default  0.08
not default  0.92
n  12
probability default, p  0.08
P  X  3  12C3   0.08    0.92 
3 9
 0.0532
ii default  0.08
. not default  0.92
n  12
probability not default, p  0.92
P  X  8  1  P  X  7 
 12C7   0.92 7   0.08 5  12C6   0.92 6   0.08 6  12C5   0.92 5   0.08 7 
 
 1    12C4   0.92    0.08   12C3   0.92    0.08   12C2   0.92    0.08  
4 8 3 9 2 10
 
  12C1   0.92 1   0.08 11  12C0   0.92 0   0.08 12 
 
 1  0.001606
 0.998
QUESTION 7(c)
i. X 
N 100,122 
 105  100 
P( X  105)  P  Z  
 12 
 P  Z  0.42 
 0.3372
ii. X 
N 100,122 
 97  100 102  100 
P(97  X  102)  P  Z 
 12 12 
 P  0.25  Z  0.17 
 1  P  Z  0.25)  P (Z  0.17 
 1  0.4013  0.4325
 0.1662

iii. P ( X  k )  0.75
 k  100 
PZ    0.75
 12 
Note: since P( X  k ) greater than 0.5,
k  100
hence, is a positive,
12
Z 0.25  1.96
k  100
12
k  100
  1.96
12
k  1.96  12   100
k  123.52
the minimum height is 123cm
QUESTION 7(d)
i. green, p = 0.15
not green, q = 0.85
n  20
P  X  6  1  P  X  7 
 1  0.0219
 0.9781
ii. green, p = 0.15
not green, q = 0.85
n  20
P  X  3  0.5951
iii. green, p = 0.15

not green, q = 0.85
n  20
mean, E  X   np
 20  0.15  3
Variance, Var  X   npq

 20  0.15  0.85  2.55

QUESTION 7(e)
i. if 1hour --------   150,
then, 1minutes ------   2.5
P  X  0   1  P  X  1
 1  0.9179
 0.0821
ii. if 1hour --------   150,
then, 1minutes ------   2.5
P  X  5  P  X  6 
 0.0420
iii. if 1hour --------   150,
then, 4minutes ------   10
P  X  15   1  P  X  15 
 1  0.0835
 0.9165
QUESTION 8(a)
i. P( X  0)  P( X  1)  P( X  2)  P( X  3)  P( X  4)  1
k 5  k   k 5  k   k 5  k   k  k  1
 3k 2  17 k  1  0
k  0.0594 @ k  5.607
since 0  k  1, hence, k  0.0594

ii. Let k  0.0594
P 1  X  3  P  X  2   P  X  3
 0.0594  5  0.0594   0.0594
 0.353

iii. E ( X )  0 0.0594  5  0.0594    1 0.0594  5  0.0594    2 0.0594  5  0.0594 

 3  0.0594   4  0.0594 
 1.296
E ( X 2 )  02 0.0594  5  0.0594    12 0.0594  5  0.0594    22  0.0594  5  0.0594 

 32  0.0594   4 2  0.0594 
 2.952
Var ( X )  E ( X 2 )   E ( X ) 
2
 2.952  1.296 
2
 1.272
QUESTION 8(b)
i. urban = 0.65
not urban = 0.35
n7
probability urban, p  0.65 ; q  0.35
P  X  5  P  X  6   P  X  7 
 7C6  0.65  0.35  7C7  0.65  0.35
6 1 7 0
 0.234
ii. n  10
probability not urban, p  0.35 ; q  0.65
P  X  3  1  P  X  3
 1  0.7384
 0.2616
iii. probability urban, p  0.65 ; q  0.35
E  X   np  6.5
n  0.65  6.5
6.5
n
0.65
n  10

QUESTION 8(c)
i. if 1day --------   3,
then 3days ------   9
P  X  6  1  P  X  7 
 1  0.7932
 0.2068
ii. if 1day --------   3,
then 4days ------   12
variance, V  X     12
standard deviation  12  3.464
QUESTION 8(d) REFER to Answer QUESTION 7(c)
QUESTION 9(a)
i. 1hour --------   8
P  X  3  1  P  X  3
 1  0.9862
 0.0138
ii. if 1hour --------   8,
then, 45minutes --------   6
P  X  2   P  X  2   P  X  3
 0.9826  0.9380
 0.0446
QUESTION 9(b)
i. probability suitable, p  0.35, then q  0.65, n  10
P  X  2   1  P  X  3
 1  0.7384
 0.2616
ii. probability suitable, p  0.35, then q  0.65, n  10
P  2  X  5   P  X  3  P  X  5 
 0.7384  0.2485
 0.4899

QUESTION 9(c)
i. X 
N 120,122 
 110  120 
P ( X  110)  P  Z  
 12 
 P  Z  0.83
 1  P  Z  0.83
 1  0.2033
 0.7967
ii. X 
N 120,122 
P ( X  m)  0.2
 m  120 
PZ    0.2
 12 
m  120
hence, is a positive value,
12
Z 0.2  0.8416
m  120
12
m  120
  0.8416
12
m   0.8416 12   120
m  130 minutes
QUESTION 10(a)
i. probability on time, p  0.5 ; q  0.5 ; n  10
P  X  4   0.8281
ii. probability on time, p  0.5 ; q  0.5 ; n  10

P  X  0   1  P  X  1
 1  0.9990
 0.001
iii. probability on time, p  0.5 ; q  0.5 ; n  10
E  X   np  10  0.5
 5 order

QUESTION 10(b)
i. X N  20,16 
 15  20 30  20 
P(15  X  30)  P  Z 
 4 4 
 P  1.25  Z  2.5
 1  P  Z  1.25  P  Z  2.5
 1  0.1056  0.00621
 0.8882
ii. X N  20,16 
P ( X  x)  0.1
 x  20 
PZ    0.1
 4 
Note: since P( X  x) less than 0.5,
x  20
hence, is a negative value,
4
Z 0.1  1.2816
x  20
must be negative value, hence,
4
x  20
  1.2816
4
x   1.2816  4   20
x  14.874 seconds
QUESTION 11(a)
i. 1week --------   2
P  X  1  1  P  X  2 
 1  0.5940
 0.406
ii. if 1week --------   2,
then, 4weeks --------   8
P  X  4   P  X  5
 0.9004

QUESTION 11(b)
i. probability defect, p  0.05 ; q  0.95 ; n  20
P  X  2   P  X  2   P  X  3
 0.2642  0.0755
 0.1887
ii. probability defect, p  0.05 ; q  0.95 ; n  20
P  X  6  1  P  X  6
 1  0.0003
 0.9997
iii. probability defect, p  0.05 ; q  0.95 ; n  20
E  X   np
 20  0.05
1
QUESTION 11(c)
i. X 
N 38,3.22 
 42  38 
P( X  42)  P  Z  
 3.2 
 P  Z  1.25
 0.1056
ii. P ( X  k )  0.1
 k  38 
PZ    0.1
 3.2 
k  38
hence, is a positive value,
3.2
Z 0.1  1.2816
k  38
must be a positive value, hence,
3.2
k  38
  1.2816
3.2
k  1.2816  3.2   38
k  42.10 ohms

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SUGGESTED ANSWER FOR TUTORIAL 1: PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION/STA408

Substitute equation(4) into equation(3);

MFMJ (Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Science) Page 1

Varaince, Var ( x)  npq

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 450  476 650  476 

ii. P( x  1)  4C1   0.2   0.8  0.4096

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Standard Deviation  npq

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iii. green, p = 0.15

Variance, Var  X   npq

MFMJ (Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Science) Page 17

since 0  k  1, hence, k  0.0594

MFMJ (Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Science) Page 18

iii. E ( X )  0 0.0594  5  0.0594    1 0.0594  5  0.0594    2 0.0594  5  0.0594 

E ( X 2 )  02 0.0594  5  0.0594    12 0.0594  5  0.0594    22  0.0594  5  0.0594 

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QUESTION 8(d) REFER to Answer QUESTION 7(c)

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ii. probability on time, p  0.5 ; q  0.5 ; n  10

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