Lecture: Sistem Simulasi dan Pemodelan

Lecturer: Arief Bimantoro Suharko Distribusi Waktu Layanan P

Retno Hartika Putri 1172003001 Probabilitas
Mutyara Deviyana 1172003028 0.1
Group 3 Mita Natalia 1172003015 0.2
Member:
Faqih Saputra 1172003023 0.7
Daffa Ramadhan 1172003033 1

Kelompok kami melakukan 100 skenario

F(x) = x/10; 0 <= x <= 4.71 minggu
Distribusi Probabilitas = 7/10

Pengguna

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 Distribusi Waktu Layanan Pemasok Distribusi Waktu Layanan Agen
Probabilitas Kumulatif Hari Probabilitas
0.0 1 0.5
0.1 2 0.4
0.3 3 0.1
1 1

mpok kami melakukan 100 skenario

= x/10; 0 <= x <= 4.71 minggu Biaya (Juta) Rp50,000,000
Distribusi Probabilitas = 7/10 = 0.7

Waktu Kerusakan Mesin Mulai Waktu Masuk

RN 1 Waktu Tunggu
Mesin Downtime Pelayanan

0 0 0
2.451 2 2 3 1
2.606 2 4 6 2
1.966 1 5 7 2
0.054 0 5 10 5
2.352 2 7 13 6
1.121 1 7 15 8
2.623 2 9 18 9
2.418 2 11 21 10
0.102 0 11 22 11
2.457 2 13 25 12
0.789 1 13 28 15
0.323 0 13 29 16
3.449 2 16 32 16
4.175 3 19 34 15
2.788 2 21 37 16
0.694 0 21 40 19
1.956 1 23 43 20
0.979 1 23 46 23
4.057 3 26 49 23
0.014 0 26 52 26
0.258 0 26 55 29
3.397 2 29 58 29
4.519 3 32 61 29
3.044 2 34 64 30
3.921 3 37 65 28
2.002 1 38 67 29
2.513 2 40 68 28
1.551 1 41 70 29
2.929 2 43 73 30
2.070 1 45 75 30
4.142 3 47 76 29
2.137 1 49 79 30
4.666 3 52 82 30
1.902 1 53 85 32
3.576 3 56 88 32
4.637 3 59 91 32
4.457 3 62 94 32
2.780 2 64 97 33
1.485 1 65 100 35
0.220 0 66 103 37
0.285 0 66 104 38
2.614 2 68 107 39
3.139 2 70 110 40
1.145 1 71 113 42
2.865 2 73 115 42
2.376 2 74 118 44
3.247 2 76 121 45
1.846 1 78 124 46
3.095 2 80 127 47
1.204 1 81 128 47
4.006 3 84 131 47
2.575 2 85 134 49
0.700 0 86 137 51
0.181 0 86 140 54
2.607 2 88 143 55
2.830 2 90 146 56
1.941 1 91 149 58
0.110 0 91 152 61
3.932 3 94 155 61
4.344 3 97 158 61
0.940 1 98 160 62
1.649 1 99 163 64
4.633 3 102 164 62
4.584 3 105 165 60
4.427 3 108 167 59
1.723 1 110 170 60
4.273 3 113 173 60
1.529 1 114 174 60
1.525 1 115 176 61
3.938 3 117 179 62
3.176 2 120 182 62
2.018 1 121 185 64
0.406 0 121 188 67
4.545 3 125 189 64
0.739 1 125 190 65
1.453 1 126 191 65
2.096 1 128 194 66
3.221 2 130 197 67
0.367 0 130 199 69
0.978 1 131 200 69
1.160 1 132 201 69
1.696 1 133 204 71
2.100 1 134 207 73
2.588 2 136 209 73
1.403 1 137 212 75
3.000 2 139 215 76
4.312 3 142 217 75
4.062 3 145 220 75
0.354 0 145 223 78
3.178 2 147 226 79
0.561 0 148 229 81
1.607 1 149 232 83
2.416 2 151 235 84
3.887 3 153 238 85
1.778 1 155 240 85
1.171 1 155 242 87
4.529 3 159 245 86
0.916 1 159 246 87
4.607 3 163 249 86
Distribusi Waktu Layanan Agen Pemeliharaan
Probabilitas Kumulatif Hari
0.0 1
0.5 2
0.9 3
1

Waktu
RN 2 Jam Selesai Waktu dalam Sistem Biaya
Pelayanan

0.6702 3 3 3 Rp150,000,000
0.7352 3 6 4 Rp214,220,416
0.0416 1 7 3 Rp172,996,389
0.7959 3 10 5 Rp254,174,379
0.5199 3 13 8 Rp402,268,388
0.1580 2 15 8 Rp419,964,879
0.6437 3 18 11 Rp530,735,429
0.5345 3 21 12 Rp588,935,850
0.0280 1 22 11 Rp554,314,623
0.6639 3 25 14 Rp700,743,012
0.3894 3 28 15 Rp764,736,901
0.0013 1 29 16 Rp787,116,655
0.9527 3 32 19 Rp925,825,483
0.2601 2 34 18 Rp905,103,324
0.9772 3 37 18 Rp908,967,121
0.5909 3 40 19 Rp961,389,065
0.4258 3 43 22 Rp1,087,091,465
0.9761 3 46 23 Rp1,168,620,387
0.6598 3 49 26 Rp1,284,357,404
0.4856 3 52 26 Rp1,292,379,063
0.3926 3 55 29 Rp1,441,885,813
0.8232 3 58 32 Rp1,582,854,069
0.4183 3 61 32 Rp1,613,944,457
0.8739 3 64 32 Rp1,605,764,150
0.0671 1 65 31 Rp1,549,236,208
0.2215 2 67 30 Rp1,512,009,189
0.0475 1 68 30 Rp1,491,952,496
0.1218 2 70 30 Rp1,504,014,885
0.3407 3 73 32 Rp1,599,721,353
0.2352 2 75 32 Rp1,597,218,471
0.0741 1 76 31 Rp1,574,783,630
0.9191 3 79 32 Rp1,579,816,671
0.6327 3 82 33 Rp1,655,035,355
0.3415 3 85 33 Rp1,641,716,726
0.5904 3 88 35 Rp1,725,129,330
0.3432 3 91 35 Rp1,749,985,534
0.5714 3 94 35 Rp1,737,702,183
0.9470 3 97 35 Rp1,731,703,331
0.3028 3 100 36 Rp1,784,407,662
0.4296 3 103 38 Rp1,882,420,381
0.0793 1 104 38 Rp1,924,711,497
0.5591 3 107 41 Rp2,064,730,027
0.7434 3 110 42 Rp2,123,240,521
0.3083 3 113 43 Rp2,163,376,185
0.2538 2 115 44 Rp2,223,312,518
0.3285 3 118 45 Rp2,273,026,856
0.8852 3 121 47 Rp2,339,861,213
0.4049 3 124 48 Rp2,376,204,454
0.4074 3 127 49 Rp2,461,608,448
0.0992 1 128 48 Rp2,403,299,916
0.7117 3 131 50 Rp2,511,172,093
0.3150 3 134 50 Rp2,520,977,817
0.6559 3 137 52 Rp2,580,869,804
0.6627 3 140 54 Rp2,706,353,642
0.4243 3 143 57 Rp2,850,009,211
0.8759 3 146 58 Rp2,908,757,165
0.3240 3 149 59 Rp2,959,705,924
0.4254 3 152 61 Rp3,041,787,661
0.8187 3 155 64 Rp3,187,948,243
0.5540 3 158 64 Rp3,200,336,909
0.2206 2 160 63 Rp3,148,312,092
0.5074 3 163 65 Rp3,265,403,429
0.0763 1 164 65 Rp3,257,683,449
0.0713 1 165 63 Rp3,145,526,662
0.2407 2 167 62 Rp3,085,088,491
0.3352 3 170 62 Rp3,080,141,434
0.3402 3 173 63 Rp3,169,822,675
0.0273 1 174 61 Rp3,070,267,726
0.2800 2 176 62 Rp3,116,743,512
0.8247 3 179 64 Rp3,213,383,599
0.5395 3 182 65 Rp3,225,561,187
0.8229 3 185 65 Rp3,264,414,991
0.5487 3 188 67 Rp3,343,773,676
0.0682 1 189 68 Rp3,379,546,323
0.0248 1 190 65 Rp3,270,470,767
0.0868 1 191 66 Rp3,294,590,166
0.9273 3 194 68 Rp3,393,749,718
0.8018 3 197 69 Rp3,470,390,186
0.1076 2 199 69 Rp3,457,645,319
0.0657 1 200 70 Rp3,494,809,319
0.0607 1 201 70 Rp3,510,572,005
0.9023 3 204 72 Rp3,619,981,846
0.8974 3 207 74 Rp3,710,632,152
0.1608 2 209 75 Rp3,737,122,391
0.5402 3 212 76 Rp3,796,528,491
0.3396 3 215 78 Rp3,897,435,906
0.1318 2 217 78 Rp3,892,428,945
0.6134 3 220 78 Rp3,891,517,496
0.5132 3 223 78 Rp3,899,354,135
0.7481 3 226 81 Rp4,036,970,337
0.3080 3 229 82 Rp4,075,732,089
0.6596 3 232 84 Rp4,206,089,767
0.6302 3 235 86 Rp4,299,858,573
0.9372 3 238 87 Rp4,365,283,335
0.1066 2 240 87 Rp4,329,249,461
0.2527 2 242 87 Rp4,367,018,231
0.3616 3 245 90 Rp4,476,045,946
0.0575 1 246 87 Rp4,367,544,626
0.7073 3 249 90 Rp4,485,491,506
0.9512 3 252 89 Rp4,474,245,863
Biaya rata-rata Rp2,440,429,601
 Jadi, opsi yang haru
opsi ke-2, karena
OPSI KE-2
kurang dari 500 jut
Biaya (Juta) Rp45,000,000
r
F(x) = x/12; 0 <= x <= 4.9 minggu
Distribusi Probabilitas = 7/12 = 0.6
Waktu
Mesin Mulai Waktu Masuk Waktu
Pengguna RN 1 Kerusakan
Downtime Pelayanan Tunggu
Mesin
1 0 0 0
2 1.716 1 1 3 2
3 4.136 2 3 6 3
4 2.088 1 5 7 2
5 1.901 1 6 8 2
6 4.629 3 8 9 1
7 3.606 2 11 11 0
8 2.707 2 12 13 1
9 1.061 1 13 16 3
10 0.303 0 13 18 5
11 2.015 1 14 19 5
12 2.849 2 16 20 4
13 4.459 3 18 21 3
14 3.294 2 20 22 2
15 3.447 2 22 23 1
16 3.795 2 25 25 0
17 3.588 2 27 28 1
18 3.915 2 29 29 0
19 2.530 1 30 31 1
20 1.346 1 31 33 2
21 0.567 0 31 36 4
22 3.140 2 33 37 4
23 3.235 2 35 38 3
24 2.966 2 37 39 2
25 4.580 3 40 40 0
26 4.146 2 42 42 0
27 3.922 2 44 44 0
28 1.752 1 45 45 0
29 4.172 2 48 48 0
30 1.212 1 48 49 0
31 0.975 1 49 50 1
32 4.269 2 52 52 0
33 0.909 1 52 54 1
34 0.914 1 53 56 3
35 4.267 2 55 57 1
36 4.752 3 58 59 1
37 1.134 1 59 60 1
38 3.169 2 60 61 0
39 1.732 1 61 62 0
40 3.960 2 64 64 0
41 0.502 0 64 66 2
42 0.139 0 64 67 3
43 1.012 1 65 69 4
44 4.289 3 67 70 3
45 2.814 2 69 71 2
46 3.466 2 71 72 1
47 4.872 3 74 75 1
48 3.877 2 76 76 0
49 2.938 2 78 78 0
50 3.044 2 79 79 0
51 2.906 2 81 81 0
52 2.137 1 82 82 0
53 3.113 2 84 84 0
54 4.244 2 87 87 0
55 3.339 2 89 89 0
56 1.972 1 90 91 1
57 4.003 2 92 92 0
58 3.560 2 94 94 0
59 1.260 1 95 95 0
60 1.987 1 96 96 0
61 1.409 1 97 98 1
62 0.086 0 97 100 3
63 0.660 0 97 101 4
64 0.839 0 98 102 4
65 2.976 2 100 103 4
66 1.809 1 101 104 4
67 3.248 2 102 105 3
68 2.018 1 104 106 2
69 2.613 2 105 108 3
70 3.829 2 107 109 2
71 1.125 1 108 111 3
72 0.859 1 109 113 5
73 4.201 2 111 114 3
74 0.261 0 111 116 5
75 1.649 1 112 118 6
76 4.803 3 115 119 4
 77 4.482 3 118 121 4
78 2.385 1 119 123 4
79 2.835 2 121 125 5
80 1.449 1 121 128 7
81 4.480 3 124 130 6
82 2.039 1 125 131 6
83 2.505 1 127 132 5
84 1.589 1 128 133 6
85 3.298 2 130 135 6
86 2.059 1 131 137 6
87 4.416 3 133 139 6
88 3.675 2 135 140 5
89 2.410 1 137 143 6
90 3.971 2 139 145 6
91 4.161 2 142 148 7
92 3.023 2 143 149 6
93 0.883 1 144 151 7
94 2.098 1 145 152 7
95 1.488 1 146 154 8
96 0.459 0 146 157 11
97 4.841 3 149 159 10
98 1.168 1 150 161 11
99 3.352 2 152 163 11
100 0.467 0 152 164 12
Jadi, opsi yang harus dipilih oleh perusahaan pembangkit listrik adalah
opsi ke-2, karena rata-rata cost yang dikeluarkan lebih kecil yaitu
kurang dari 500 juta Rupiah . Sedangkan opsi pertama memiliki rata-
rata cost di atas 1 Milyar Rupiah

Waktu
RN 2 Jam Selesai Waktu dalam Sistem Biaya
Pelayanan

0.9999 3 3 3 Rp135,000,000
0.9341 3 6 5 Rp224,952,975
0.1648 1 7 4 Rp161,385,070
0.1012 1 8 3 Rp151,578,378
0.0011 1 9 3 Rp146,688,941
0.7948 2 11 3 Rp115,168,436
0.7746 2 13 2 Rp110,511,163
0.9007 3 16 4 Rp174,453,859
0.8279 2 18 5 Rp236,599,514
0.3033 1 19 6 Rp273,656,857
0.4647 1 20 6 Rp265,758,367
0.0378 1 21 5 Rp235,983,075
0.1716 1 22 4 Rp163,941,136
0.4614 1 23 3 Rp122,475,389
0.2316 1 24 2 Rp76,999,521
0.9823 3 28 3 Rp135,000,000
0.2226 1 29 2 Rp85,804,226
0.6093 2 31 2 Rp90,000,000
0.8076 2 33 3 Rp113,584,656
0.9167 3 36 5 Rp213,244,788
0.3724 1 37 5 Rp243,373,466
0.2085 1 38 5 Rp205,960,396
0.0641 1 39 4 Rp166,039,255
0.4421 1 40 3 Rp133,169,661
0.1401 1 41 1 Rp57,945,844
0.8364 2 44 2 Rp90,000,000
0.3164 1 45 1 Rp45,000,000
0.5984 2 47 2 Rp90,000,000
0.4104 1 49 1 Rp45,000,000
0.2245 1 50 1 Rp58,180,359
0.0037 1 51 2 Rp77,595,546
0.8023 2 54 2 Rp90,000,000
0.7198 2 56 3 Rp156,133,746
0.3787 1 57 4 Rp177,150,972
0.8738 2 59 3 Rp155,133,479
0.0200 1 60 2 Rp75,396,501
0.1521 1 61 2 Rp90,632,881
0.2258 1 62 1 Rp52,456,127
0.6304 2 64 2 Rp97,002,513
0.7629 2 66 2 Rp90,000,000
0.2403 1 67 3 Rp121,819,976
0.5609 2 69 5 Rp208,182,941
0.0638 1 70 5 Rp226,621,873
0.2082 1 71 4 Rp159,033,522
0.1248 1 72 3 Rp130,155,017
1.0000 3 75 4 Rp174,183,414
0.4101 1 76 2 Rp91,285,847
0.6933 2 78 2 Rp90,000,000
0.2501 1 79 1 Rp57,889,020
0.6972 2 81 2 Rp90,000,000
0.0460 1 82 1 Rp58,713,828
0.2178 1 83 1 Rp47,613,636
0.0050 1 85 1 Rp45,000,000
0.0854 1 88 1 Rp45,000,000
0.7570 2 91 2 Rp90,000,000
0.3609 1 92 2 Rp83,226,802
0.3475 1 93 1 Rp45,000,000
0.2132 1 95 1 Rp45,000,000
0.2819 1 96 1 Rp56,928,516
0.6216 2 98 2 Rp94,764,540
0.5741 2 100 3 Rp147,778,758
0.2011 1 101 4 Rp190,509,141
0.3206 1 102 5 Rp218,196,692
0.0435 1 103 5 Rp241,160,960
0.3495 1 104 5 Rp208,046,977
0.1460 1 105 5 Rp205,549,268
0.2159 1 106 4 Rp165,283,761
0.8680 2 108 4 Rp202,316,702
0.2522 1 109 4 Rp178,735,224
0.6868 2 111 4 Rp168,216,409
0.8014 2 113 5 Rp228,695,103
0.2187 1 114 6 Rp251,154,157
0.6226 2 116 5 Rp230,870,795
0.5854 2 118 7 Rp314,024,296
0.0658 1 119 7 Rp315,740,478
0.5725 2 121 6 Rp279,658,263
0.6972 2 123 6 Rp252,000,294
0.6286 2 125 6 Rp279,382,478
0.9744 3 128 8 Rp339,954,319
0.5550 2 130 9 Rp391,916,611
0.4169 1 131 7 Rp319,303,697
0.3188 1 132 7 Rp310,787,659
0.4573 1 133 6 Rp290,030,624
0.5010 2 135 8 Rp338,314,680
0.6185 2 137 8 Rp341,739,905
0.8378 2 139 8 Rp377,688,969
0.2000 1 140 7 Rp306,773,361
0.9575 3 143 8 Rp345,294,378
0.6518 2 145 8 Rp372,027,669
0.9066 3 148 9 Rp402,797,037
0.4760 1 149 8 Rp338,557,721
0.8109 2 151 8 Rp349,201,699
0.2157 1 152 8 Rp371,030,546
0.8362 2 154 9 Rp405,968,569
0.9443 3 157 11 Rp501,900,449
0.5827 2 159 13 Rp579,862,051
0.8574 2 161 12 Rp542,786,396
0.6228 2 163 13 Rp602,122,744
0.1950 1 164 12 Rp559,131,220
0.7661 2 166 14 Rp636,869,623
Biaya rata-rata Rp204,907,557