‫» ﻫﻤﺎﻳﺶ ﻣﻠﻲ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺷﺒﻜﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭ ﺯﻫﻜﺸﻲ«‬

‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﻜﺪﻩ ﺷﻬﻴﺪ ﭼﻤﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﻫﻮﺍﺯ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸﻜﺪﻩ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﻋﻠﻮﻡ ﺁﺏ‬

‫‪ ۱۲‬ﺍﻟﻲ ‪ ۱۴‬ﺍﺭﺩﻳﺒﻬﺸﺖ ‪۱۳۸۵‬‬

‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺁﺏ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺰﺭﻋﻪ‪ :‬ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩﻱ‬

‫ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻱ ﻛﻢ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻳﻜﻨﻮﺍﺧﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺭﺷﺪ‬

‫ﻣﺤﻤﺪ ﻛﺎﻇﻢ ﺷﻌﺒﺎﻧﻲ‬

‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻱ ﻛﺎﺭﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ ﺍﺭﺷﺪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﺁﺏ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ‬

‫ﺗﻮﺭﺝ ﻫﻨﺮ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺎﺩﻳﺎﺭ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﺁﺏ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ‬

‫ﻣﻨﺼﻮﺭ ﺯﻳﺒﺎﻳﻲ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺎﺩﻳﺎﺭ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﻱ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ‬

‫ﭼﻜﻴﺪﻩ‬
‫ﺁﺏ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺑﺸﺮﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﻲ ﺣﻔﻆ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ ﺣﻴﺎﺗﻲ ﻭ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ‪،‬‬
‫ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﭼﺎﻟﺸﻬﺎﻱ ﻗﺮﻥ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺳﺘﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﺧﺎﻙ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻳﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻮ ﻭ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺕ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻱ ﺁﺭﻣﺎﻥ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻛﻔﺎﻳﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻣﻮﺭ ﺯﻳﺮﺑﻨﺎﻳﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻱ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺎﺕ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﻭ‬
‫ﺧﺎﻙ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻣﺮﻱ ﺍﺟﺘﻨﺎﺏ ﻧﺎﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﻣﻲﺳﺎﺯﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﭘﻴﺸﻨﻬﺎﺩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﻴﻴﺮ ﻭ‬
‫ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﺍﻥ )‪ ،(۱۹۹۳‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﺩﺭﺻﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﻛﺸﺖ ﻏﺎﻟﺐ )ﮔﻨﺪﻡ‪ ،‬ﺟﻮ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﻧﺞ‪ ،‬ﭼﻐﻨﺪﺭﻗﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺫﺭﺕ ﺩﺍﻧﻪﺍﻱ‬
‫ﻭ ﺫﺭﺕ ﻋﻠﻮﻓﻪﺍﻱ( ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺩﺭﻭﺩﺯﻥ )ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ( ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻓﻮﺍﺻﻞ ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪۲‬‬
‫ﻭ ‪ ۵‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻱﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ )ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ( ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺟﺪﺍﮔﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺕ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺧﻄﻲ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﺘﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻛﻢ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺭﺷﺪ ﮔﻴﺎﻫﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺑﺎﺯ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻱ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﮊﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻛﻠﻴﺪﻱ ‪ :‬ﻛﻢ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﻝ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺧﻄﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻱ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬
 ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ‬
‫ﺁﺏ ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺑﺸﺮﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﻲ ﺣﻔﻆ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ ﺣﻴﺎﺗﻲ ﻭ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ‪،‬‬
‫ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﭼﺎﻟﺸﻬﺎﻱ ﻗﺮﻥ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﻛﻞ ‪ ١٣٠‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﻜﻌﺐ ﺁﺏﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﺠﺪﻳﺪ ﺷﻮﻧﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪١٠٥‬‬
‫ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﻜﻌﺐ ﺭﺍ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﻄﺤﻲ ﻭ ‪ ٢٥‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﻜﻌﺐ ﺭﺍ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥﻫﺎﻱ ﻧﻔﻮﺫﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏﻫﺎﻱ ﺯﻳﺮﺯﻣﻴﻨﻲ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻓﻌﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻞ ﺁﺏﻫﺎﻱ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﺤﺼﺎﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ )‪ ٨٧/٥‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﻜﻌﺐ(‪ ،‬ﺭﻗﻤﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻎ ﺑﺮ ‪ ٨٢‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﻜﻌﺐ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ‬
‫‪ ٩٤‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻛﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﻱ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺳﺘﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﺧﺎﻙ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻳﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ‬
‫ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻮ ﻭ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺕ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻱ ﺁﺭﻣﺎﻥ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻛﻔﺎﻳﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻣﻮﺭ ﺯﻳﺮﺑﻨﺎﻳﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻱ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺎﺕ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ‬
‫ﻭ ﺧﺎﻙ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻣﺮﻱ ﺍﺟﺘﻨﺎﺏ ﻧﺎﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﻣﻲﺳﺎﺯﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﺁﺏ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﻱ ﻭ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ ﻣﻬﻢ ﻭ ﺣﻴﺎﺗﻲ ﻭ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺧﺸﻜﺴﺎﻟﻲﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻭﺏ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺻﺮﻓﻪ ﺟﻮﻳﻲ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺁﺏ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻣﺮﻱ ﻻﺯﻡ ﻭ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﻲﺭﺳﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯﻩ ﺗﻜﻨﻴﻚ ﻛﻢ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ )‪(deficit irrigation‬‬
‫ﻳﻜﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺭﺍﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﻭ ﻋﻤﻠﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺑﺎ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻭ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﻛﻢ‬
‫ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﺣﺪ ﻣﺠﺎﺯ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﻧﺎﺷﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻜﻨﻴﻚ ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻭ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺣﺪ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺁﻥ ﻫﺮ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺑﻪ ﻇﺎﻫﺮ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻭﻟﻲ ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﺳﺘﺤﺼﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﺘﻘﺎﻝ ﻭ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ‬
‫ﺁﺏ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺖ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻱ ﻋﺎﻳﺪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ )ﺗﻮﻛﻠﻲ‪ .(١٣٧٦ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻛﻢ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪﺳﺎﺯﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﮔﻴﺎﻫﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺗﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻤﺒﻮﺩ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺤﻤﻞ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻛﻢ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﻃﺮﻕ ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮﻥ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﺟﺮﺍ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺁﺏ‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ )ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ( ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﻃﻮﻻﻧﻲ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻮﻳﭽﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻳﻚ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ‬
‫ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺟﻮﻳﭽﻪﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺵ ‪ (Limited Irrigation Dryland) LID‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺟﻤﻠﻪﺍﻧﺪ )ﺍﻧﮕﻠﻴﺶ ﻭ ﺍﺭﻻﺏ‪.(١٩٧٨ ،‬‬
‫ﺗﺎﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪﺳﺎﺯﻱ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﻛﺸﺖ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻳﺎﺭﻥ ﻭ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﺭ‬
‫)‪ (١٩٨٢‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﻏﻴﺮﺧﻄﻲ ﻭ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲ )‪ (NLP-DP‬ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺭﺍﻩﺣﻠﻲ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺗﺨﺼﻴﺺ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﻛﺸﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺷﺎﻧﮕﺠﻴﺎﻥ ﻭ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﺍﻥ )‪ (٢٠٠٢‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺁﺏ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺗﺨﺼﻴﺼﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻛﻤﺒﻮﺩ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻣﺪﻟﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺳﻪ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﺍﻭﻝ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺁﻥﻫﺎ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﮔﻴﺎﻫﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﻭﻣﻴﻦ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﺗﺨﺼﻴﺺ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﮔﻴﺎﻫﺎﻥ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ ﻭ ﻗﺴﻤﺖ‬
‫ﺳﻮﻡ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺗﺨﺼﻴﺼﻲ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻛﺸﺖ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﻣﻲﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺑﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺁﻥﻫﺎ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺕ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺗﺨﺼﻴﺺ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ‬
‫ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺒﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺳﻄﺤﻲ‪ ،‬ﺯﻳﺮﺯﻣﻴﻨﻲ ﻭ ﻧﻔﻮﺫ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻣﺪﻝ ﺁﻥﻫﺎ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺴﺖ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺁﺏ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺧﺸﻚ ﻭ ﻧﻴﻤﻪ‬
‫ﺧﺸﻚ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺩﺭﺻﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺰﺭﻋﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﻛﺸﺖ ﻏﺎﻟﺐ )ﮔﻨﺪﻡ‪ ،‬ﺟﻮ‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﻧﺞ‪ ،‬ﭼﻐﻨﺪﺭﻗﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺫﺭﺕ ﺩﺍﻧﻪﺍﻱ ﻭ ﺫﺭﺕ ﻋﻠﻮﻓﻪﺍﻱ( ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺩﺭﻭﺩﺯﻥ )ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ( ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺧﻄﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺵﻫﺎ‬

‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺷﺒﻜﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺳﺪ ﺩﺭﻭﺩﺯﻥ )ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ( ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﺳﺪ ﺩﺭﻭﺩﺯﻥ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭﻱ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻛﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺩﺭﻭﺩﺯﻥ ﺩﺭ ‪ ٦٥‬ﻛﻴﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮﻱ ﺷﻬﺮ ﻣﺮﻭﺩﺷﺖ )ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ( ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺗﺠﻤﻊ ﺳﻴﻼﺏﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﻣﻨﻈﻢ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺎﻧﺎﻝﻫﺎ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﭘﺮﻭﮊﻩ ﺁﺏ ﺷﺮﺏ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ ﺑﻨﺎ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺁﺏ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺍﺭﺍﺿﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺷﺒﻜﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺳﺪ ﺗﺎﻣﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﺨﺼﻴﺺ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﺯﻣﻴﻦ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺧﻄﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻛﻤﻚ ﻧﺮﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﺭ ‪ QSB‬ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺑﻪ ﻃﺮﻕ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻤﻠﻪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻤﻴﻞ ﭘﺮﺳﺸﻨﺎﻣﻪ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺯﺍﺭﻋﻴﻦ ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺿﺮﺍﺋﺐ ﻓﻨﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﺸﺘﻤﻞ ﺑﺮ ‪ ٦٠‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬
‫ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ . .‬ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﻣﺰﺭﻋﻪ ﺑﻬﺮﻩﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺷﺒﻜﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻋﻤﺪﺗﺎ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ ٢‬ﺗﺎ ‪ ١٥‬ﻫﻜﺘﺎﺭ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺟﻬﺖ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺳﻄﻮﺡ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻛﻢ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺰﺭﻋﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ ﺑﻬﺮﻩﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪﻩ ‪ ۷‬ﻫﻜﺘﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻬﺮﻩﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪﻩ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺭﻭﺵ ﻃﺮﺍﺣﻲ ﻣﺪﻝ ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﻃﺮﺍﺣﻲ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻳﻚ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺁﺑﻲ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ‬
‫ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍ ﺁﺑﺎﻥ ﺗﺎ ‪ ٢٩‬ﺍﺳﻔﻨﺪ‪ :‬ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﺍﺻﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ‪ ،‬ﮔﻨﺪﻡ ﻭ ﺟﻮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺎﻩ ﻓﺮﻭﺭﺩﻳﻦ‪ :‬ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﺍﺻﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ‪ ،‬ﮔﻨﺪﻡ ﻭ ﺟﻮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺎﻩ ﺍﺭﺩﻳﺒﻬﺸﺖ‪ :‬ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﺍﺻﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ‪ ،‬ﮔﻨﺪﻡ‪ ،‬ﺟﻮ ﻭ ﭼﻐﻨﺪﺭﻗﻨﺪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺎﻩ ﺧﺮﺩﺍﺩ‪ :‬ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﺍﺻﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ‪ ،‬ﮔﻨﺪﻡ‪ ،‬ﺟﻮ ﻭ ﭼﻐﻨﺪﺭﻗﻨﺪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺎﻩ ﺗﻴﺮ ‪ :‬ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﺍﺻﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﭼﻐﻨﺪﺭﻗﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺫﺭﺕ ﺩﺍﻧﻪﺍﻱ‪ ،‬ﺫﺭﺕ ﻋﻠﻮﻓﻪﺍﻱ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺞ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺎﻩ ﻣﺮﺩﺍﺩ ‪ :‬ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﺍﺻﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﭼﻐﻨﺪﺭﻗﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺫﺭﺕ ﺩﺍﻧﻪﺍﻱ‪ ،‬ﺫﺭﺕ ﻋﻠﻮﻓﻪﺍﻱ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺞ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺎﻩ ﺷﻬﺮﻳﻮﺭ ‪ :‬ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﺍﺻﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﭼﻐﻨﺪﺭﻗﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺫﺭﺕ ﺩﺍﻧﻪﺍﻱ‪ ،‬ﺫﺭﺕ ﻋﻠﻮﻓﻪﺍﻱ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺞ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺎﻩ ﻣﻬﺮ ‪ :‬ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ ﺍﺻﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﭼﻐﻨﺪﺭﻗﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺫﺭﺕ ﺩﺍﻧﻪﺍﻱ‪ ،‬ﺫﺭﺕ ﻋﻠﻮﻓﻪﺍﻱ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺞ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶﻫﺎﻱ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﮔﻴﺎﻫﺎﻥ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ :(۱‬ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ‬

‫ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﮔﻴﺎﻩ‬

‫‪۴۰‬‬ ‫ﮔﻨﺪﻡ‬

‫‪۴۰‬‬ ‫ﺟﻮ‬
‫‪۳۶‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺞ‬
‫‪۳۰‬‬ ‫ﺫﺭﺕ‬
‫‪۲۰‬‬ ‫ﭼﻐﻨﺪﺭﻗﻨﺪ‬
‫ﻣﺪﻝ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺭﻳﺎﺿﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﻱ ‪ :‬ﻣﺪﻝ ﺑﻄﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻫﺪﻑ ﻭ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺘﻬﺎ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻫﺪﻑ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻫﺪﻑ ﻣﺴﺎﻟﻪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻫﺪﻑ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬
‫)ﺳﻠﻄﺎﻧﻲ ﻭ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﺍﻥ‪:(۱۳۷۸ ،‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪Z = ∑ c j x j − PwW‬‬ ‫)‪(۱‬‬
‫‪j =1‬‬
‫‪n‬‬

‫‪∑a‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪ij‬‬ ‫‪x j ≤ bi‬‬

‫‪xj ≥ 0‬‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ : x j‬ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎ )ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻛﻢﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻫﺪﻑ‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻱﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻣﻲﮔﺮﺩﺩ ﺑﻄﻮﺭﻳﻜﻪ ‪ j‬ﺩﺭ ‪ x j‬ﻣﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻧﺎﻡ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ(‪ : a ij ،‬ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ ﺿﺮﺍﻳﺐ ﻓﻨﻲ‪ : bi ،‬ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ‪ :Pw ،‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺁﺏ‪ :W ،‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﮔﻴﺎﻩ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ ‪:‬‬
 ‫‪n‬‬
‫‪W = ∑ IRg‬‬ ‫)‪(۲‬‬
‫‪g =1‬‬

‫‪ g‬ﺩﺭ ﻓﺮﻣﻮﻝ ﻓﻮﻕ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺍﺯ ﺭﺷﺪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ IR .‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺁﺏ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﮔﻴﺎﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺭﺷﺪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ‪ c j‬ﺩﺭ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻫﺪﻑ‬
‫ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺎﺯﺩﻩ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺍﻱ )‪ (gross margin‬ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪:‬‬
‫‪GM = TR- TVC‬‬ ‫)‪(۳‬‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ : (Total Variable Cost) TVC‬ﻛﻞ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﺏ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ : (Total Revenue) TR ،‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻫﺮ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ ‪:‬‬
‫‪TRj = Ya.Pj‬‬ ‫)‪(۴‬‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ Pj‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ‪ Ya ،‬ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻫﺮ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬
‫ﻣﻴﻴﺮ ﻭ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﺍﻥ )‪ (١٩٩٣‬ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺕ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪n ‬‬ ‫‪ W‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪Ya‬‬
‫‪= ∏ 1 − kyi 1 − a‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫)‪(٥‬‬
‫‪Yp‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪ Wp‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪i ‬‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ : Yp‬ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺗﻨﺶ ﺁﺑﻲ‪ : Ya ،‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ )ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻨﺶ ﺁﺑﻲ(‪: i ،‬‬
‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺍﺯ ﺭﺷﺪ‪ : n ،‬ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺭﺷﺪ‪ : Ky ،‬ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﻴﺖ ﮔﻴﺎﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻛﻢ ﺁﺑﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺭﺷﺪ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ‬
‫ﺁﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶﻫﺎﻱ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ : Wp .‬ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﺁﺏ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﮔﻴﺎﻩ ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﺯﺩﻩ‬
‫ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺮ ﺗﺒﺨﻴﺮ ‪ -‬ﺗﻌﺮﻕ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻮﻩ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻭﺵ ﭘﻨﻤﻦ ‪ -‬ﻓﺎﺋﻮ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ : Wa .‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﮔﻴﺎﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺭﺷﺪ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ ‪:‬‬

‫‪Wa i = (1 − x)Wpi‬‬ ‫)‪(۶‬‬

‫‪ : x‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺁﺏ ﻃﻲ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺭﺷﺪ )ﻛﻮﭼﻜﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ(‬

‫ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻭ ﺑﺤﺚ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺩﺭﺻﺪﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺑﺎﺯﺩﻩ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺍﻱ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﮔﻴﺮﻳﻲ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻫﺪﻑ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺖﻫﺎﻱ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺁﺑﻲ ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﺷﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻭﻝ )ﺩﺭﺻﺪ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺑﺎ ﻓﻮﺍﺻﻞ ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ ۵‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ( ﺑﺎ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺩﻭﻡ )ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺑﺎ ﻓﻮﺍﺻﻞ ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪۲‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ( ﻛﺎﻣﻼ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺕ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (۲‬ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻱﻫﺎﻱ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﮔﻴﺎﻫﺎﻥ ﮔﻨﺪﻡ‪،‬‬
‫ﭼﻐﻨﺪﺭﻗﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﻧﺞ ﻭ ﺫﺭﺕ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﺖ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ‪ ۵‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪﻱ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ‬
‫‪Y ‬‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻳﻚ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ‪  a ‬ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ‪ ۱۵‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻱ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺩﻩ‬
‫‪Y ‬‬
‫‪ p‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺍﻱ ﺁﻥ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﻣﻲﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺑﺠﺎﻱ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ‪ ۷‬ﻫﻜﺘﺎﺭ ﮔﻨﺪﻡ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻱ ‪ ۵‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻛﻞ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺭﺷﺪ‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻛﻨﺪ ‪ ۵/۱۰۹۰‬ﻫﻜﺘﺎﺭ ﮔﻨﺪﻡ ﻭ ‪ ۱/۸۹۱۰‬ﻫﻜﺘﺎﺭ ﭼﻐﻨﺪﺭﻗﻨﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻱ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺷﺎﻳﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺣﺘﻲ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻓﻮﺍﺻﻞ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ ﺍﺯ ‪ ۵‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺑﻪ ‪ ۲‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺑﺎﺯ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﻣﻲﺁﻳﺪ‪.‬‬
 ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ :(۱‬ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻱ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺍﻭﻝ‬

‫ﺳﻄﺢ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻛﺸﺖ )ﻫﻜﺘﺎﺭ(‬ ‫ﮔﻴﺎﻩ‬

‫‪۵/۱۰۹۰‬‬ ‫ﮔﻨﺪﻡ‬

‫‪۰‬‬ ‫ﺟﻮ‬
‫‪۱/۸۹۱۰‬‬ ‫ﭼﻐﻨﺪﺭﻗﻨﺪ‬
‫‪۰./۸۹۹۷‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺞ‬
‫‪۴/۲۰۹۲‬‬ ‫ﺫﺭﺕ ﺩﺍﻧﻪﺍﻱ‬
‫‪۰‬‬ ‫ﺫﺭﺕ ﻋﻠﻮﻓﻪﺍﻱ‬

‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪﮔﻴﺮﻱ‬
‫ﻭﻗﺘﻲ ﺁﺏ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﻭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺯﻳﺮﻛﺸﺖ ﺁﺑﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻳﺴﺘﻲ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺘﺎﺛﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺒﺨﻴﺮ ‪-‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮﻕ ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ) ‪ ( ETp‬ﻭ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺗﺎﻣﻴﻦ ﺁﺏ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻃﻲ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﻲﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﺍﺛﺮ‬
‫ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺖ ﻓﺼﻠﻲ ﺗﺎﻣﻴﻦ ﺁﺏ ﺑﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻭ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻛﻢ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺁﺏ‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ )ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ( ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﮔﻴﺎﻫﺎﻥ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﭘﻴﺸﻨﻬﺎﺩ ﻣﻲﺷﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻛﻢ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺕ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺍﺛﺮ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺖ ﺁﺏ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻃﻮﻝ ﺩﻭﺭﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺭﺷﺪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻊ‬
‫‪ -۱‬ﺗﻮﻛﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻉ‪ .۱۳۷۶ .‬ﺑﻬﺮﻩﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﭘﺎﻳﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪﺳﺎﺯﻱ ﻛﻢﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻱ‪ .‬ﺑﻮﻟﺘﻦ ﻛﻤﻴﺴﻴﻮﻥ ﺁﺏ‪ .‬ﺷﻤﺎﺭﻩ ‪.۲۲‬‬
‫‪ -۲‬ﺳﻠﻄﺎﻧﻲ‪ ،‬ﻍ‪ .‬ﺭ‪ ،.‬ﻡ‪ .‬ﺯﻳﺒﺎﻳﻲ‪ ،.‬ﻭ ﺍ‪ .‬ﻉ‪ .‬ﻛﻬﺨﺎ‪ .۱۳۷۸ .‬ﻛﺎﺭﺑﺮﺩ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻱ ﺭﻳﺎﺿـﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻛـﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺕ ﻛـﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﻱ‪ ،‬ﺳـﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘـﺎﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﺁﻣﻮﺯﺵ ﻭ ﺗﺮﻭﻳﺞ ﻛﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﻱ‪ ۴۱۹ .‬ﺻﻔﺤﻪ‪.‬‬
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‫‪4-Meyer, S. J., K. G. Hubbard. And D. A. Wilhite. 1993. A crop – specific drought index for corn : I. Model‬‬
‫‪development and validation. Agron. J. 85:388-395.‬‬
‫‪5-Shangguan, Z., M. Shao., R. Horton., T. Lei., L. Qin., and J. Ma. 2002. A model for regional optimal allocation of‬‬
‫‪irrigation water resource under deficit irrigation and its applications. Agric. Water Manag. 52:139-154.‬‬
‫‪6-Yaron, D., and A. Dinar. 1982. Optimal allacation of water on a farm during feed season. J. Agric. Econ. 64: 452-‬‬
‫‪458.‬‬