Conventional Decline Curve

Analysis
 Decline Curve Analysis
Instructional Objectives

• Use conventional decline curve

analysis

• Use effective and nominal decline

equations

• Use exponential and harmonic decline

 Decline Curve Analysis
Instructional Objectives
• Match past performance

• Forecast future performance

Why Do We Use Decline Curve
Analysis?
• Match past performance trends with a
model
– Forecast future
– Estimate reserves
What Can Change the Trend?
• Field operations, development
strategies
– Increase or decrease in flowing
bottomhole pressure
– Drilling infill wells
– Drilling stepout wells
– Initiating secondary or tertiary
recovery program
The Arps Equation

qi
qt  
1  bDit 
1b
Assumptions for Arps Equation
• Well is produced at constant
bottomhole pressure
• Well is producing from a reservoir with
fixed, no-flow boundaries
• Well has constant permeability and skin
factor
• Applicable only to boundary-dominated
flow data
Hyperbolic Exponent b

qi
qt  
1  bDit 
1b
 3 Sets of Equations
• Hyperbolic general case

where 0 < b < 1

• Exponential decline where b = 0

• Harmonic decline, where b = 1

 Cartesian Rate vs time
100

90

80

70
Harmonic
Rate, STB/D

60

50 Hyperbolic
40

30

20
Exponential

10

0
0 5 10 15 20
Time, years
 Semilog Rate vs Time
100

Harmonic
Rate, STB/D

Hyperbolic

Exponential

10
0 5 10 15 20
Time, years
 Log-Log Rate vs Time
100

Harmonic
Rate, STB/D

Hyperbolic
Exponential

10
0.1 1 10 100
Time, years
 Cartesian Cumulative Production
vs Time
450

400
Cumulative Production, MSTB

350
Harmonic

300

250 Hyperbolic
200

150 Exponential

100

50

0
0 5 10 15 20
Time, years
 Cartesian Rate vs Cumulative
Production
100

90

80

70
Rate, STB/D

60

50 Harmonic
Exponential
40

30

20

10 Hyperbolic
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Cumulative Production, MSTB
 Semilog Rate vs Cumulative
100
Production

Harmonic
Rate, STB/D

Exponential
Hyperbolic

10
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Cumulative Production, MSTB
 Log-Log Rate vs (1 + b Di t)
100

Harmonic
Rate, STB/D

Hyperbolic

10
1 10
(1+b Di t)
Hyperbolic Decline (0 < b < 1)

qi
qt  
1  bDit 
1b

 
b
qi
Np t   1b
qi 1b
q
D 1  b 
i
Hyperbolic Decline (0 < b < 1)

r 1 b
ta 
bDi

 
b
qi 1b 1b
Npa  qi  qa
D 1  b 
i
Nominal Decline Rate as a
Function of Time
b
q Di
D  Di   
 qi  1  bDi t

Dei  1  1  bDi 
1 b

1

Di  1  Dei   1
b
b

 Graphical Analysis for
Hyperbolic Decline
100
Rate, STB/D

10
1 10
(1+b Di t)
 Graphical Analysis for
Hyperbolic Decline
25

20

15
-q/(dq/dt)

10

0
0 5 10 15 20
Time, years
 Graphical Analysis for
Hyperbolic Decline
0.25

0.2

0.15
1/q^b

0.1

0.05

0
0 5 10 15 20
Time, years
Exponential Decline (b = 0)

qt   qie Di t

qi  qt 
Np t  
Di
Exponential Decline (b = 0)

lnr
ta 
Di

qi  qa
Npa 
Di
Exponential Decline (b = 0)

D  Di

D
De  1  e

D   ln1  De 
 Graphical Analysis for
Exponential Decline
100
Rate, STB/D

10
0 5 10 15 20
Time, years
 Graphical Analysis for
Exponential Decline
100

90

80

70
Rate, STB/D

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Cumulative Production, MSTB
Harmonic Decline (b = 1)

qi
qt  
1  Di t

qi  qi 
Np t   ln 
Di  q 
Harmonic Decline (b = 1)
r 1
ta 
Di

qi  qi 
Npa  ln 
Di  qa 
Harmonic Decline (b = 1)
q Di
D  Di 
qi 1  Di t
Di
Dei 
1  Di

Dei
Di 
1  Dei
 Graphical Analysis for
Harmonic Decline
100
Rate, STB/D

10
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Cumulative Production, MSTB
Nominal vs Effective Decline

dlnqt  1 dqt 
Dt    
dt qt  dt
qi  q1
De 
qi
Nominal vs Effective Decline
• Nominal decline can be directly converted
from one set of time units to another
• Effective decline cannot be directly converted
from one set of units to another.
– Conversion depends on hyperbolic
exponent b
– Convert effective to nominal decline in the
original units
– Convert nominal decline to the new units
– Convert nominal decline back to effective
decline in the new units
 Example 1
Convert a nominal decline of 12 %/yr to
%/mo
Example 1 Solution

12 %  12 %  1yr  1%
Di    
yr  yr  12mo  mo
 Example 2
• Convert an effective decline rate De =
12%/yr to %/mo, assuming exponential
decline
Example 2 Solution

D
De  1  e
 0.010653
 1 e
1
 0.010596 mo
Shifting Time Zero for
Forecasting

qi  qt p 
~

Di  Dtp 
~

~
bb
~
t  t  tp
 Example 3
• Determine the values of qi, Di, and b for
Well X, using the data in your notes and
the current date, 1/1/97, as time zero.
 Example 3 Solution

• Part 1 - The updated decline curve

parameters are b = 0.5, qi = 499.79
STB/D, and Di = 12.245 %/yr.
 Example 3 Solution

• Part 2 - The cumulative production from

1/1/97 through 12/30/2000 is 586,152 STB
 Example 3 Solution

• Part 3 - Cumulative production from

1/1/97 through 12/30/2000:

Np  1256572  670413  586,159 STB

Estimating b From Reservoir
Drive Mechanism
• Each drive mechanism has a
characteristic b value

• If b cannot be estimated from

production data, b may be estimated
from the drive mechanism
Estimating b from Reservoir
Drive Mechanism
References
 Example 4
1. Estimate the decline curve parameters qi
and Di for a) exponential decline, b)
harmonic decline, and c) hyperbolic
decline with b=0.5.
2. Forecast production for 20 years for a)
exponential decline, b) harmonic decline,
and c) hyperbolic decline with b=0.5.
3. Calculate the ultimate recovery Npa and
the time to abandonment ta for a field-
wide economic limit rate of 9000 STB/mo.
 Example 4 Solution
• Prepare the appropriate graphs for
analysis with exponential, harmonic,
and hyperbolic decline and estimate qi
and Di
• For convenience, we use time in
months, and plot the production
volume for the month as a monthly rate
at the midpoint of the month
• Develop a new rate table with time in
decimal months
Exponential Decline Solution
Decline Curve Example - Exponential Decline

100000

65700
Production rate, STB/month

10000

3490

1000
0 60 120 180 240
Time, months
Exponential Decline - Forecast

 1.22310 2 60 
qt   qie Di t
 65700 e  31540 STB / mo

qi  qt  65700  31540

Np t    2
 2,793 ,100 STB
Di 1.223  10
 Exponential Decline -
Abandonment
qi 65700
r   7.3
qa 9000

lnr ln7.3 
ta   2
 162 .5 months
Di 1.223  10

qi  qa 65700  9000 
Npa   2
 4,636 ,100 STB
Di 1.223  10
 Harmonic Decline Solution
• For harmonic decline, we graph q vs Np on
a semilog scale
• First, we have to compute the cumulative
production as a function of time
• Simply adding the monthly volumes will
give the cumulative production at the end
of each month
• Production rate is calculated as an
average over the month, and should be
plotted at the middle of each month
 Harmonic Decline Solution
• To get cumulative production at the
middle of month j+1, use

Npj1 2  Npj  0.5q j1  Npj1 2  0.5q j  q j1 

Harmonic Decline Solution
 Harmonic Decline Solution
100000
Production rate, STB/month

10000

1000
0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

Cumulative production, STB

 Harmonic Decline Solution
100000
68800

31300
Production rate, STB/month

10000

1000
0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

Cumulative production, STB

Harmonic Decline - Forecast

• At t = 60 months, q is calculated from

qi 68800
qt     33020 STB / mo
 
1  Di t 1 + 1.806  10 60 
-2

• Cumulative production Np at 60 months

is
qi  qi   68800   68800 
Np t   ln    2  
ln   2,796 ,500 STB
Di  q   1.806  10   33020 
 Harmonic Decline -
Abandonment
qi 68800
r   7.6444
qa 9000

r  1 7.6444  1
ta   2
 367 .4months  30.6years
Di 1.806  10

qi  qi  68800  68800 
Npa  ln   2
ln   7,738 ,500STB
Di  qa  1.806  10  9000 
 The 20-Year Forecast
100000
Production rate, STB/month

10000

1000
0 60 120 180 240

Time, months
 Hyperbolic Decline Solution
0.007

0.0065

0.006

0.0055 5.583E-3
1/sqrt(q)

0.005

0.0045

0.004
3.858E-3
0.0035

0.003
0 12 24 36 48 60

Time, months
Hyperbolic Decline Solution

mqbi m
Di   
b ab
5
2.875  10


3.858  10 0.5 
3

2 1
 1.490  10 mo
 17 .9% / yr
Hyperbolic Decline - Forecast
qi 67200
qt     32090 STB / mo
1  bDit 1b
1+ 0.5 1.490  10 60 
-2 1 0.5

Np t  
qbi
Di 1  b 

q1ib  q1b 


67200 0.5
1.490  10 1  0.5 
2
67200 1 0.5 
 32090 1 0.5 

 2,786 ,900 STB
 Hyperbolic Decline -
Abandonment
qi 67200
r   7.4667
qa 9000

rb  1 7.4667 0.5  1
ta    232 .6months  19.4years
bDi 
0.5  1.490  10 2

Npa 
qbi
Di 1  b 
q1ib  q1ab 


67200 0.5
1.490  10 1  0.5 
2
67200 1 0.5 
 9000 1 0.5 

 5,719 ,100STB
Hyperbolic Decline - 20-Year Forecast
Decline Curve Example - Hyperbolic Decline
100000
Production rate, STB/month

10000

1000
0 60 120 180 240

Time, months
Comparison of 20-Year Forecasts for
Exponential, Hyperbolic, and
Harmonic Decline
Decline Curve Example - Comparison of Forecasts
100000

Field Data

Harmonic
Production rate, STB/month

10000
Hyperbolic

Exponential

1000
0 60 120 180 240
Time, months
 Nodal Analysis
• Why?
• How? And why this way?
• Improvement
• FE
 Material Balance
• 2 equations