INTENTIONAL FIRES AND ARSON

John R. Hall, Jr.

Fire Analysis and Research Division
National Fire Protection Association

March 2005

National Fire Protection Association, 1 Batterymarch Park, Quincy, MA 02169-7471, www.nfpa.org

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Copyright © 2005, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA

 Executive Summary
In 2003, an estimated 37,500 intentional structure fires were reported to the NFPA survey. This
excludes suspicious fires and any share of unknown cause fires unless those adjustments are made
by the fire department before reporting to NFPA. This was the lowest number NFPA has ever
recorded. Beginning in 2001, the NFPA annual survey of fire experience reported to U.S. local fire
departments eliminated the category called “suspicious fires” and replaced “incendiary” with
“intentional,” both to correspond with the new coding categories introduced in NFIRS Version 5.0,
effective with 1999 data. Property damage and civilian deaths in intentional fires also fell to
historic lows ($692 million and 305 deaths). In 2003, the arson offense rate per 100,000 population
decreased by 6%, to a new historic low of 30.4.

Statistics are available through 2003 on U.S. structure and vehicle fires reported as intentional, but
statistics are only available through 2002 on U.S. intentional fires including adjustment for fires
reported with cause unknown. Canadian fire statistics are shown through 1999, U.K. fire statistics
are available through 2002, and Japanese fire statistics are shown through 2001.

In Canada, there has been no consistent trend up or down in total set fires, but the mix has shifted
dramatically from incidents they label “arson and suspected arson” to incidents they label “other set
fires.” In the U.K., there has been a consistent and substantial upward trend in intentional fires,
especially for vehicles. In Japan, there has also been a consistent upward trend.

In 2002, roughly 630 civilians died in an estimated 68,800 intentionally set U.S. structure fires
(including adjustments for unknown cause fires), the second lowest death toll and the lowest fire
total for this cause since comparable statistics began in 1980. In 2002, more than 2,000 civilians
suffered non-fatal injuries in intentionally set U.S. structure fires, also the lowest injury toll for the
cause since comparable statistics began in 1980. In 2002, intentional structure fires resulted in an
estimated $1.9 billion in direct property damage. By every measure, the rates of intentional fires or
arson offenses, in structures or in vehicles, relative to population, have been substantially
decreasing since 1980.

Lavatories and exterior wall surfaces are among the leading areas of origin for intentional fires in a
number of property use groups, but they account for much smaller shares of property damage than
of incidents. Rates of intentional structure fires or arson offenses, relative to population, are
highest in large cities but are also higher in rural communities (less than 2,500 population) than in
small towns (say, 2,500 to 9,999 population). The percentage of structure fires that are intentional
is largest for the large cities, and for this measure, there is no secondary peak for rural
communities.

In the U.S., typically one of every six arson offenses (17% in 2003) are cleared by arrest or
“exceptional means,” while in Canada, a slightly higher one in five (19% in 1999) are typically
cleared by arrest or “other means.” Juveniles have accounted for roughly half of all U.S. arrestees
since 1994. Roughly 2% of total set fires result in convictions.

Intentional Fires and Arson, 3/05 i NFPA Fire Analysis and Research, Quincy, MA
 Table of Contents

Page

Executive Summary i
Table of Contents ii
List of Tables and Figures iii
Defining Arson and Intentional Fires 1
Intentional Fires and Arson Offenses 5
Firesetters, Motives, and Criminal Justice 36
The Myths of Arson 46
Possible Reasons for Decline in Intentional Fires and Arson 49
Adopt Proven Anti-Arson Programs 50
Statistical Methodology 51

Intentional Fires and Arson, 3/05 ii NFPA Fire Analysis and Research, Quincy, MA
 List of Tables and Figures

Page

Table 1. Size of the 2003 U.S. Intentional Fire and Arson Problem 8
Figure 1. U.S. Intentional Structure Fires 9
Figure 2A. U.S. Incendiary or Suspicious Structure Fire Losses (1977-2000) 10
Figure 2B. U.S. Incendiary Structure Fire Losses (1978-2000) and Intentional 11
Structure Fire Losses (2001-2003)
Figure 3. U.S. Intentional Structure Fire Civilian Deaths 12

Figure 4. U.S. Incendiary and Suspicious Vehicle Fires (1978-2000) and Intentional 13
Vehicle Fires (2001-2003)
Figure 5. U.S. Incendiary and Suspicious Vehicle Fire Losses (1978-2000) and 14
Intentional Vehicle Fire Losses (2001-2003)
Table 2. Intentional Fires 15
Figure 6. Intentional Structure Fires as Share of All Structure Fires, U.S. vs. U.K. 17
Table 3. Civilian Deaths in Intentional Fires 18

Table 4. Civilian Injuries in Intentional Fires 20

Table 5. Direct Property Damage in Intentional Fires 22
Figure 7. Comparative Intentional Fire or Arson Rates per 100,000 Population – U.S. 24
Structures
Figure 8. Comparative Intentional Fire or Arson Rates per 100,000 Population – U.S. 25
Vehicles
Table 6. Leading Areas of Origin for Intentional Fires in Public Assembly Properties 26
Intentional Fire or Arson

Table 7. Leading Area of Origin for Intentional Fires in Educational Properties 27

Table 8. Leading Areas of Origin for Intentional Fires in Stores and Offices 28
Table 9. Leading Areas of Origin for Intentional Fires in Storage Properties Excluding 29
Dwelling Garages
Figure 9A. U.S. Intentional Structure Fire Rate (Including Suspicious), by size of 30
Community
Figure 9B. U.S. Intentional Structure Fire Rate (Excluding Suspicious), by Size of 31
Community

Table 10. U.S. Intentional Structure Fire and Arson Offense Rates by Size of 32
Community
Figure 10A. U.S. Intentional Fire (Including Suspicious) Percentage of Structure 34
Fires, by Size of Community
Figure 10B. U.S. Intentional Fire (Excluding Suspicious) Percentage of Structure 35
Fires, by Size of Community
Table 11. Arson Clearances Percentage of Reported Crimes Cleared by Arrest 40
Table 12. Age Profile of Persons Under Age 21 Arrested for Arson 42

Intentional Fires and Arson, 3/05 iii NFPA Fire Analysis and Research, Quincy, MA
 List of Tables and Figures

Page

Table 13. Trends in Age Profiles of Juveniles Arrested for Arson 43

Table 14. Summary of Statistical Literature on Motives of Arsonists 44
Table 15. U.S. Intentional Structure Fires Involving the Use of Incendiary Devices 46

Intentional Fires and Arson, 3/05 iv NFPA Fire Analysis and Research, Quincy, MA