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From the Division of Allergy, Asthma, lectronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes), also known as electronic
and Immunology, Children’s Mercy Kan- nicotine-delivery systems, are devices that produce an aerosol by heating a
sas City and the University of Missouri,
Kansas City (C.D.); and the Division of liquid that contains a solvent (vegetable glycerin, propylene glycol, or a mix-
Pulmonary, Allergy, Sleep, and Critical ture of these), one or more flavorings, and nicotine, although the nicotine may be
Care Medicine, Boston University School omitted. The evaporation of the liquid at the heating element is followed by rapid
of Medicine, Boston (G.T.O.). Address
reprint requests to Dr. O’Connor at the cooling to form an aerosol. This process is fundamentally different from the com-
Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, Sleep, bustion of tobacco, and consequently the composition of the aerosol from e-ciga-
and Critical Care Medicine, Boston Uni- rettes and the smoke from tobacco is quite different. E-cigarette aerosol is directly
versity School of Medicine, 715 Albany
St., Rm. R304, Boston, MA 02118, or at inhaled (or “vaped”) by the user through a mouthpiece. Each device includes a
goconnor@bu.edu. battery, a reservoir that contains the liquid, and a vaporization chamber with heat-
N Engl J Med 2016;375:1372-81. ing element (Fig. 1). The design of the e-cigarette was originally based on the
DOI: 10.1056/NEJMra1502466 design of conventional cigarettes but has since evolved, with later-generation devices
Copyright © 2016 Massachusetts Medical Society. permitting users to refill a single device with different liquids and to customize the
heating element.1
The inhalation of aerosol from a nicotine-containing e-cigarette leads to peak
serum nicotine concentration within 5 minutes.2 This rapidity of systemic delivery,
combined with a method of use that is the same as that used for conventional
cigarettes (i.e., oral inhalation), results in an experience for the user that is closer
to cigarette smoking than the forms of nicotine-replacement therapy that have been
approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). In 2014, there were an esti-
mated 466 brands and 7764 unique flavors of e-cigarette products3; this hetero-
geneity complicates research on potential health effects. The scientific, regulatory,
and lay communities have been impassioned but divided in their responses to
e-cigarettes,4 with some advocating their use on the basis of “harm reduction” as
compared with tobacco smoking, and others championing the so-called precau-
tionary principle, which is based on a philosophy that avoids adoption of a new
product when the long-term effects of that product are unknown.5
300 smokers who did not intend to quit, a popu- not shed further light on the efficacy of e-ciga-
lar Italian e-cigarette that delivered nicotine at rettes as a smoking-cessation aid.26,27
two strengths (7.2 mg and 5.4 mg per milliliter)
was compared with an e-cigarette that did not P o ten t i a l P osi t i v e
deliver nicotine. The reduction in the number of a nd Neg at i v e He a lth Effec t s
conventional tobacco cigarettes smoked per day of E- Cig a r e t te Use
did not differ significantly between groups.21 A
small randomized trial among conventional cig- The documented and potential health effects of
arette smokers showed that using an e-cigarette e-cigarette use should be considered in the con-
reduced craving during short-term abstinence text of whether the devices are being used in the
from smoking to a degree similar to that of short term as a cessation aid for tobacco smok-
smoking a conventional cigarette. In this study, ing, as a long-term alternative to tobacco smok-
cigarette smokers who were randomly assigned ing, or as a product that nonsmokers of tobacco
to receive e-cigarettes with instructions to use perceive as less deleterious to health than tobacco
them as often as they wished smoked signifi- cigarettes. In the case of the last use listed, even
cantly fewer conventional cigarettes over the en- small risks of adverse health effects may be un-
suing 8 weeks than smokers who did not receive acceptable and warrant efforts to curtail use. As a
e-cigarettes.22 Another small randomized trial of smoking-cessation aid or an alternative to tobacco
short duration that involved young adults who use, however, the risks of e-cigarette use should
were not necessarily contemplating smoking ces- be compared with those associated with the use
sation showed that at 3 weeks participants who of conventional cigarettes and with FDA-approved
received nicotine e-cigarettes were smoking fewer smoking-cessation treatments, such as nicotine-
conventional cigarettes per day than participants replacement products, varenicline, and bupropion.
who received nicotine-free e-cigarettes.23 As noted above with regard to the value of smok-
In the largest clinical trial to date, 657 smokers ing-cessation studies, the evolution of e-cigarette
in New Zealand were randomly assigned to re- technology complicates research on the compara-
ceive nicotine e-cigarettes (with cartridges con- tive safety of these products.
taining 10 to 16 mg of nicotine per milliliter),
nicotine patches, or non-nicotine e-cigarettes. At Constituents of Liquids and Aerosols
6 months, the verified quit rates were 7.3% with Simply stated, the e-cigarette aerosolization pro-
nicotine e-cigarettes, 5.8% with nicotine patches, cess involves heat generated by electric current
and 4.1% with non-nicotine e-cigarettes — dif- as it flows through a wire that surrounds a wick
ferences that were not statistically significant. saturated with liquid. The composition of the
The trial showed that dual use of tobacco ciga- aerosol that is generated depends on the ingre-
rettes and e-cigarettes persisted at 6 months at dients of the liquid, the electrical characteristics
moderately high levels (approximately one third of the heating element, the temperature reached,
of participants); dual use also occurred among and the characteristics of the wick. As stated at
patch users but at lower levels (7%). Abstinence the beginning of the article, e-cigarette liquids
rates were substantially lower than anticipated, generally consist of vegetable glycerin (also called
which reduced the statistical power to detect dif- glycerol), propylene glycol, or a mixture of the
ferences among the groups.24 two; nicotine in a concentration from 0 to 24 mg
The efficacy of e-cigarettes as a smoking- per milliliter; and flavorings. Vegetable glycerin
cessation intervention remains uncertain owing and propylene glycol, along with many of the
to the limited data available from randomized flavorings included in e-cigarette liquids, are
trials.25 Furthermore, it is difficult to extrapolate commonly used as food additives and are con-
the results of studies that used first-generation sidered to be safe for oral ingestion; however,
e-cigarettes to second- and third-generation de- data on the safety of long-term inhalation of
vices that are more satisfying to users because of these substances are limited to studies in ani-
changes in aerosol characteristics, nicotine de- mals (e.g., a study in rodents of inhaled glycerol
livery, and the variety of flavors. Recent meta- that led to the development of localized, mild
analyses that have combined data from random- squamous metaplasia of the upper airways28), are
ized trials and observational cohort studies have based on exposures that are quite different from
those associated with e-cigarettes (e.g., upper and Table 1. Constituents of Liquids and Aerosols
lower respiratory symptoms and reduced lung in E-Cigarettes.
function associated with exposure to the propylene
glycol in theatrical smokes and fogs29), or are un- Liquids30-32
available (e.g., because many flavorings have not Listed ingredients
been analyzed). Glycerol
Analyses of commercially available e-cigarette Propylene glycol
liquids and aerosols with the use of gas or liquid Nicotine
chromatography coupled to mass spectroscopy
Other compounds detected
have revealed the presence of constituents other
Acetone
than the listed ingredients (Table 1).30-37 These
compounds were generally found in concentra- Acrolein
tions lower than those associated with toxicity 1,3-Butadiene
in foods or oral pharmaceuticals, although some Cyclohexane
products have had high enough levels to raise Diethylene glycol
concerns about safety.30 One study showed that Ethylene glycol
e-cigarette liquids from a particular manufacturer
Ethanol
contained higher levels of ethylene glycol than
glycerol or propylene glycol, which was probably Formaldehyde
a reflection of inappropriate manufacturing prac- Tobacco alkaloids (nornicotine, myosmine, and
anabasine have been detected in some products,
tices; ethylene glycol has not been approved for although tobacco was not listed as an ingredient)
use in any product intended for human con-
Aerosols33-37
sumption.38
Many of the liquid flavorings in e-cigarettes Listed ingredients
are aldehydes, which in some cases are present Glycerol
in concentrations sufficient to pose risks owing to Propylene glycol
the irritant characteristics of these compounds.39 Nicotine
Sweet-flavored e-cigarette liquids often contain Other compounds detected
diacetyl, acetyl propionyl, or both.40 These flavor-
Acetaldehyde
ings are approved for use in foods but have been
Acetone
associated with respiratory disease when inhaled
during manufacturing processes.41 Some e-ciga- Acrolein
rette liquids are flavored with tobacco extracts, Formaldehyde
and these may contain tobacco-specific nitrosa- N′-nitrosonornicotine (NNN)
mines, nitrates, and phenol,42 although in far 4-(Methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK)
lower concentrations than those found in tobacco Metals (cadmium, lead, nickel, tin, copper)
products.42
Toluene
The constituents of the aerosol generated by
e-cigarettes33-37 (Table 1) and inhaled by the user
are more directly relevant to health than the in- limit for continuous exposure that was estab-
gredients of e-cigarette liquids. The nicotine con- lished to prevent sensory irritation in the gen-
tained in the aerosol from 13 puffs of an e-ciga- eral population,33 although intermittent and con-
rette in which the nicotine concentration of the tinuous exposures cannot be compared directly.
liquid is 18 mg per milliliter has been estimated Although the concentration of carbonyl com-
to be similar to the amount in the smoke of a pounds such as formaldehyde found in e-ciga-
typical tobacco cigarette, which contains approxi- rette aerosol is substantially lower than that in
mately 0.5 mg of nicotine.33 The concentration of the smoke from tobacco cigarettes, this concen-
formaldehyde inhaled in mainstream e-cigarette tration is elevated when the voltage used to
aerosol has been estimated to be approximately generate the aerosol is elevated (4.8 to 5.0 V vs.
400 μg per cubic meter in a typical second- 3.0 V).43,44 However, it has been argued that this
generation e-cigarette. This concentration is high-voltage scenario is not realistic because the
greater than the 30-minute short-term average aerosol generated in a laboratory by means of coil
overheating is so harsh that it would be avoided and the timing of exposure in laboratory animals
by users.45 Another laboratory study showed that with actual human exposure. In addition, none
e-cigarette aerosol and the smoke from tobacco of the studies initially exposed animals to smoke
cigarettes contained similar amounts of reactive from tobacco cigarettes and then randomly as-
oxygen species and that the size of the particles signed them either to continued exposure to
distributed in e-cigarette aerosol was in the respi- tobacco smoke or to e-cigarette aerosol in order
rable range that leads to small-airway or alveolar to obtain insights into the biologic effects of
deposition, with a mass median aerodynamic switching from tobacco to e-cigarettes.
diameter of 1.03 μm.37 However, the composi- The short-term exposure of mice to the inha-
tion of the particles in e-cigarette aerosol differs lation of nebulized, nicotine-containing liquid
from that of the particles in tobacco smoke and from e-cigarettes was associated with lung in-
outdoor air pollution. flammation and systemic and pulmonary oxida-
Overall, studies of potentially toxic substances tive stress accompanied by alterations in the
in e-cigarette aerosol have shown that a number functioning of the endothelial barrier of the
of such substances are present, including some lung.57 In another study, mice exposed to e-ciga-
known or suspected carcinogens, such as form- rette aerosol had diminished levels of glutathione,
aldehyde and acetaldehyde, although these com- which is critical to maintaining cellular balance
pounds are found in substantially lower concen- in oxidation–reduction reactions, and increased
trations in e-cigarette aerosol than in the smoke levels of proinflammatory cytokines in the lungs.58
from tobacco cigarettes when excess voltage in A third study in mice revealed that short-term
e-cigarettes is avoided. There is a large degree of exposure to cigarette smoke caused lung injury
variability in user exposure to these aerosol con- characterized by albumin leak, oxidant stress,
stituents across devices, e-cigarette liquids, and and apoptosis that did not occur after exposure
patterns of e-cigarette use. to e-cigarette aerosol.59 In a study comparing
mice that were exposed to e-cigarette aerosol for
Biologic Effects in In Vitro Systems 4 weeks with mice that were not exposed, exposed
and In Vivo Studies in Animals mice had higher levels of inflammatory cytokines
Research on the biologic effects of e-cigarette in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid than unexposed
liquids and aerosols is still nascent. The data mice.56 In a study in mice in which allergic air-
that are currently available allow for an estima- way disease was induced by sensitization and re-
tion of the potential risks of e-cigarette adoption exposure to ovalbumin, the intratracheal instil-
by nonsmokers and of the potential for risk reduc- lation of e-cigarette liquid containing nicotine
tion among persons who switch from tobacco led to increases in airway inflammation, airway
cigarettes to e-cigarettes. Some investigators have hyperresponsiveness, and the production of Th2
approached this issue by exposing cell cultures to cytokines and ovalbumin-specific IgE.60
liquids, aerosol extracts, or aerosols from e-ciga- Some in vivo studies suggest mechanisms by
rettes46-56 (Table 2). The heterogeneity of the in which e-cigarettes could increase the risk of re-
vitro systems and e-cigarette products used in spiratory infection. Mice exposed to e-cigarette
these studies makes it difficult to synthesize the aerosol for 2 weeks had a statistically significant
findings, but it appears that e-cigarette aerosols increase in oxidative stress and moderate macro-
can have biologic effects on a variety of human phage-mediated inflammation.61 The mice also
cell types, including airway epithelium and lung had significantly impaired pulmonary bacterial
endothelium, with some direct comparison stud- clearance as compared with mice exposed only
ies suggesting that e-cigarettes may be less toxic to ambient air after intranasal infection with
to cells than tobacco cigarettes. Streptococcus pneumoniae, an effect that was due
In vivo studies in animals can provide in- partially to reduced phagocytosis by alveolar
sights into the biologic effects of exposure to macrophages. In response to infection with the
e-cigarette aerosol that cannot be studied in influenza A virus, the mice exposed to e-ciga-
humans. However, the relevance of the findings rette aerosol had higher viral titers in the lungs
from animal studies to human health must be and higher rates of virus-induced illness and
considered with caution given the differences in death than the unexposed mice. In a study of
species and in the comparability of the doses pneumonia in mice,56 ex vivo exposure of Staphy-
Hwang et al.56 Aerosol (cells at air–liquid Human alveolar epithelial and keratinocyte cell Dose-dependent epithelial-cell death, re- Not assessed
interface) lines and human alveolar macrophages duced antimicrobial activity of macro-
phages
Schweitzer et al.57 Liquid and aerosol extract Primary human lung endothelial cells Loss of endothelial barrier function, appar- Similar effects from smoke
ently caused at least in part by nicotine
1377
The n e w e ng l a n d j o u r na l of m e dic i n e
lococcus aureus bacteria to an extract of e-cigarette inhaler) but not in the form of an e-cigarette.
aerosol resulted in a more virulent infection, Nicotine is addictive, and the use of e-cigarettes
possibly by inducing biofilm formation, invasive- by persons who do not use tobacco clearly has
ness, and resistance to antimicrobial peptides. the adverse effect of promoting nicotine addic-
In a study relevant to exposure in early life, tion. Beyond its addictive properties, short-term
neonatal mice were exposed to e-cigarette aero- or long-term exposure to nicotine in adults has
sol with or without nicotine or to ambient air not been established as dangerous.69 Nicotine
during the first 10 days of life.62 Mice exposed to may have side effects, including gastrointestinal
the e-cigarette aerosol with nicotine gained less symptoms, headache, palpitations, and local irri-
weight during the first 10 days of life than mice tation of the skin or oral cavity,70 but in a meta-
exposed only to ambient air. Even after adjust- analysis of trials of nicotine-replacement ther-
ment for body weight, the nicotine-exposed mice apy, only nausea appeared to be slightly more
had modestly impaired lung growth as compared common with active therapy than with placebo.71
with control mice. In a study of human embry- Epidemiologic studies of health outcomes asso-
onic stem cells and of cardiac development in ciated with the use of snus, a moist, Swedish-
zebrafish, both e-cigarette aerosol and tobacco style version of snuff that delivers nicotine, have
smoke had some adverse effects on development, revealed no association with the incidence of
but the degree of toxicity and the spectrum of cancer or myocardial infarction, although asso-
developmental defects were greater with tobacco ciations with death from myocardial infarction
smoke.63 and with heart failure have been suggested in
individual studies of snus.72
Effects on Human Health Epidemiologic studies indicate that prenatal
For long-term smokers who are unable to give maternal smoking is associated with adverse cog-
up cigarette smoking altogether, it is speculated nitive and behavioral consequences for the child73;
that the use of e-cigarettes rather than tobacco these adverse effects can also be seen in associa-
cigarettes may be associated with better short- tion with smoking during adolescence, a period
term and long-term health outcomes, but clini- of developmental vulnerability. Data from stud-
cal and epidemiologic data on health outcomes ies in animals suggest that the neurotoxic effects
are not yet available. Two potential hazards re- of nicotine on the developing brain may play a
lated to e-cigarettes are acute toxic effects caused role in these associations.74,75 Although all nico-
by accidental or intentional ingestion of e-ciga- tine should be avoided during pregnancy, a large
rette liquids and physical injury caused by the randomized trial of nicotine-replacement thera-
e-cigarette device. Ingestion of e-cigarette liquids py versus placebo for pregnant smokers, in which
by young children has been reported with increas- both groups were provided with behavioral sup-
ing frequency,64 and although the manifestations port, showed that nicotine-replacement treatment
of nicotine toxicity — such as nausea, vomiting, led to reduced smoking in the second trimester
headache, and dizziness — are usually mild,65 and, subsequently, better child development out-
the ingestion by a child of a full 10-ml or 20-ml comes at 2 years of age.76 The adverse effects of
bottle of nicotine-containing e-cigarette liquid prenatal exposure to nicotine on lung develop-
may be lethal.66 A fatal intentional overdose of ment have been observed in studies of humans
e-cigarette liquid by means of oral ingestion has and nonhuman primates.73 In adolescence, nico-
been reported in a 24-year-old woman.67 There tine exposure may have effects on the brain that
have been rare instances of injury caused by the increase susceptibility to dependence on cocaine
explosion of an e-cigarette device,68 but it is not and other illicit drugs.77
clear whether such events resulted from inap- The physiological effects of e-cigarette use may
propriate use. be less harmful than those of tobacco smoking.
Although nicotine-free e-cigarette liquids are A tobacco-industry study showed that the acute
available, the use of liquids containing nicotine increases in heart rate and blood pressure that
is much more common. Nicotine has been ap- followed tobacco-cigarette use were greater than
proved by the FDA for use in smoking cessation those that followed e-cigarette use.78 Switching
in oral form (as gum or a lozenge), transdermal from tobacco smoking to e-cigarette use did not
form, and inhaled form (in nasal spray or an oral appear to be associated with any elevation of
blood pressure over 52 weeks, and blood pres- smoking e-cigarettes may be less dangerous than
sure may decline with successful cessation of smoking conventional cigarettes, more needs
tobacco smoking.79 Tobacco smoking has been to be learned. A particular challenge in this re-
reported to cause an acute delay in myocardial gard is the striking diversity of the flavorings in
relaxation and an increase in arterial stiffness e-cigarette liquids, since the effects on health
that are not observed after e-cigarette use.80,81 of the aerosol constituents produced by these
E-cigarettes have been reported to cause some flavorings are unknown. At present, it is im-
subtle, acute changes in pulmonary function,82 possible to reach a consensus on the safety of
but the effects of use on lung function may not e-cigarettes except perhaps to say that they may
be as great as those associated with tobacco be safer than conventional cigarettes but are also
cigarettes.83 A small, uncontrolled study of per- likely to pose risks to health that are not present
sons with asthma who were followed for 24 when neither product is used. Epidemiologic data
months after switching from conventional ciga- indicate that e-cigarette use is growing among
rettes to e-cigarettes has suggested that lung minors and young adults and may promote nico-
function may improve and asthma symptoms tine addiction in these age groups among those
may decrease after the switch to e-cigarettes.84 who would otherwise have been nonsmokers.
Active and passive exposure to tobacco smoke More research is needed to understand the effec-
has been observed to increase total blood counts tiveness of e-cigarettes as a smoking-cessation
of leukocytes, granulocytes, and lymphocytes, tool, to identify the health risks of e-cigarette use,
an effect not observed after similar exposure to and to make these products as safe as possible.
e-cigarettes.85 However, the relevance of these Even as this research is under way, regulations
findings to future health is uncertain given the that make e-cigarettes unavailable to children is
absence of data that directly address the long- warranted,86 as are public health initiatives that
term effects on health outcomes of e-cigarette discourage nonsmokers from smoking conven-
use versus the use of conventional tobacco prod- tional cigarettes or using e-cigarettes.
ucts or the use of neither product.
Dr. Dinakar reports receiving speaking fees from Teva, Boeh-
ringer Ingelheim, GlaxoSmithKline, and Merck and consulting
C onclusions fees from Teva and MEDA; and Dr. O’Connor, receiving consult-
ing fees from AstraZeneca and research grant support from
It is clear that the use of e-cigarettes has biologic Janssen Pharmaceuticals. No other potential conflict of interest
relevant to this article was reported.
effects and possibly health-related effects on per- Disclosure forms provided by the authors are available with
sons who do not smoke conventional tobacco the full text of this article at NEJM.org.
products. Although some studies suggest that
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Correspondence
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MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2016;65:361-7. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMc1613869
Dear Dr O’Connor,
Subsequent to the publication of the Review Article that Dr Dinakar and yourself published on “The Health Effects
of Electronic Cigarettes”, I noted, with great interest, the exchange of letters you have very recently had with
th
Riccardo Polosa and Pasquale Caponnetto, published on 29 December, 2016, in the New England Medical Journal
regarding E-Cigarettes (1).
Unfortunately, it is not possible for a reader to make an evidence-based “Rapid Response” to these types of
intriguing and enlightening representations on the NEMJ website (hence, I copy them in here). Therefore, I hope
that you will not mind if I forward to you, directly, a brief commentary regarding the statements and claims made.
There are several statements made by Polosa and Caponnetto that are either inconsistent with previous claims
they have made, or that are simply erroneous and unscientific. For example, in terms of incongruity with their
previous published opinion, they state that:
“. . . the findings of trials on the efficacy of e-cigarettes as smoking-cessation tools are inconclusive, . . .”.
Many other independent international organisations, as well as independent researchers (2; 3; 4; 5; 6) have,
indeed, fully concurred with this scientifically accurate, and precautionary declaration.
However, in a research article published on-line, only 13 days previous to their letter in the NEMJ, Polosa and
Caponnetto (with co-authors) “over enthusiastically”, and therefore incongruously, claimed that:
“Data from clinical trials and meta-analyses have shown that ECs may help smokers quitting . . .” (7). This previous
“selective inflation” of the dismal efficacy of e-cigarettes for smoking cessation, as evidenced by the current data,
draws into question the scientific consistency of the authors.
“ . . . “vaping” (e-cigarette use) is having huge effects in the general population, and many smokers are quitting . .
.”.
In order to attempt to justify this significant claim of “huge effects”, and one of causality between e-cigarettes and
smoking cessation, Polosa and Caponnetto merely cite the cross sectional survey by Farsalinos et al (8), which is a
type of study that, as the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine highlights: “establishes association at most, not
causality” (9). As has been highlighted before by expert epidemiologists, this is not the first time that
unsubstantiated and unscientific claims have been made regarding the Farsalinos et al data (10). Furthermore, the
claim does not take into account the potentially confounding effects of previously identified significant
discrepancies between self-reported cessation and biochemically verification of cessation in some European
populations, including, specifically, England and Poland (11), and, of course, the Farsalinos et al data was only self-
reported.
This sounds, ostensibly at least, like an almost scientifically convincing opinion, until it is highlighted that Polosa (at
least) unequivocally believes, as it has been previously put by highly experienced and expert toxicologists (12),
that: “a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) study, in which a small group of experts considered the harms to
human health and wellbeing posed by using a wide range of tobacco products” is “scientific”!
The David Nutt et al MCDA study referred to (13), which generated the original estimate that e-cigarettes convey
merely 5% of the risk of smoking tobacco, in which Polosa was a co-author, is correctly and convincingly critiqued
by the toxicologists Combes and Balls thus:
“The quantification of risk in toxicology, although not a precise process by any means, implies some greater
confidence in a particular prediction than is conveyed by a mere qualitative statement, and it has to be derived
from detailed quantitative hazard data. However, in this case, the information was merely generated by an ad hoc
group of experts, and was based on opinions, rather than being grounded in scientific observation.” They continue:
“Moreover, there are many difficulties with the MCDA approach in general, and in particular, with the above
application of it. This implies that the validity of its outcome is very questionable, being dependent on the amount
and relevance of pre-existing information, subject to much value judgement, and difficult to reproduce with a
different set of experts, and with the same ill-defined
criteria used to assess relative harm. We also noted one inescapable problem, which relates to the large bias in the
overwhelming amount of available data on cigarette smoking compared to that on ECs. It is difficult to see how
such an imbalance could be compensated for in practice, but it greatly complicates any comparison of the two
types of products.” Furthermore:
“. . . in truth, as we have argued above, there is no evidence for the 95% estimate . . . Unfortunately, little further
information is available, and this fact, together with the other general drawbacks of implementing MCDA,
discussed earlier, suggest that extreme caution should be exercised when considering the outcome.” (12)
Even Carl V. Philips, the tobacco industry funded ardent advocate for vaping, said of the MCDA paper: “Please
don’t cite the new Nutt et al. paper as evidence” (14). His description of the methodology involved is, ironically,
even more scathing:
“ . . . it is not research-based calculation. All those numbers create the illusion of quantitative research, but what
was apparently actually done is that a small group of researchers and pundits sat in a room took guesses about the
numbers, made arbitrary choices about how to combine them, and then presented that as if it were a fact-
based quantification. It was a study of a focus group, not scientific research about the costs. Put another way, this
is basically an opinion piece with a graph that implies it was quantitative research. Because of that, citing it as
evidence is much the same as citing any other editorial.”
“By emphasizing the limited risks of e-cigarette use, the authors do not acknowledge its public health potential.”
As above, and elsewhere (15), expert toxicologists are telling us that we currently have a paucity of available
evidence from which to scientifically accurately assess the risks of e-cigarettes, and certainly not enough to label
these risks as being “limited”. Not to acknowledge this, and to propose that e-cigarettes are “low risk” consumer
products, in the light of the current evidence, is a “reckless and irresponsible suggestion” (12).
I do hope that you will find these observations of interest, and wish you a Happy New Year.
Kindest regards,
David Bareham.
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