p,4-Z A?

Public Disclosure Authorized

e
Report No. 3569-PA

EconomicMemorandumon Paragu &C.

s LA0,

September,1981
CENTER
INFORMATION
Latin America and the CaribbeanRegionalOffice j J COPY
Public Disclosure Authorized

FOR OFFICIALUSEONLY
Public Disclosure Authorized
Public Disclosure Authorized

Document of the World Bank

Thisdocumenthasa restricteddistributionand maybeusedby recipients

only inthe performanceof theirofficialduties.Its contentsmaynot
otherwisebe disclosedwithout World Bankauthorization,
 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit Guarani ¢

US$1.00 =126

¢100 = US$0.008

GLOSSARY OF PRINCIPAL ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THIS REPORT

ANDE - Power Company

ANTELCO - Telecommunications Company
BNF - National Development Bank
CELADE - Latin American Demographic Center
CORPORSANA - Public Works Corporation
EXIMBANK - U.S. Export-Import Bank
FAO - Food and Agricultural Organization
IBR - Institute of Rural Welfare
IBRD - International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
IDM - Municipal Development Institute
IDB - Inter-American Development Bank
INTN - National Institute of Technology and Standardization
IPVU - Housing Institute
IPS - Institute of Social Security
KfW - Kreditanstalt fur Wiederaufbau
MAG - Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock
MOE - Ministry of Education
MOPC - Ministry of Public Works and Communication
MSPBS - Ministry of Health and Social Assistance
ONP - National Projects Office
OPS - Panamerican Health Organization
SENASA - National Service of Environmental Sanitation
SNF - National Forest Service
STPP - National Vocational Training Service
STP - Technical Planning Secretariat
UNA - National University of Asuncion
UNESCO - United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural
Organization
UNICEF - United Nations Interim Children's Emergency Fund
USAID - United States Agency for International Development
 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

This report is based on the findingsof an economic

mission that visited Paraguay in November 1980,
consistingof:

Messrs. Hugo Zea-Barriga (Economist)

Eduardo Aninat (Consultant)
David Cieslikowski(ResearchAssistant)

This report was discussedwith the Paraguayan

Authoritiesin August/September1981.

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of
their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
 Table of Contents

Page No.

MAP

COUNTRY DATA

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

I. RECENT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE .................. 1..............

A. Background .............................................. 1

i) Resource Endowment ................................. 1

ii) Social and Economic Conditions ..................... 3

B. Development Efforts and Recent Economic Trends .... ...... 5

i) Recent Growth Performance .......................... 5

ii) Management of the Economy .......................... 10

- Fiscal Policy and Public Finances .... ........... 11

- Monetary Policy ................................. 19
- Balance of Payments ............................. 23

II. GROWTH PROSPECTS .. 27

A. Outlook .27

i) Production and Investment .27

ii) Balance of Payments and External Capital
Requirements .30

B. Policy Issues ........................................... 32

III. PROVISION OF SOCIAL SERVICES .. 36

A. Introduction .36

B. Literacy and Education .37

i) General Indicators .37

ii) Education Programs and Selected Policy Issues 39
iii) Expansion needs and Resource Requirements .46
- Demand Projections .46
- Investment Requirements and Cost Benchmarks 49
Table of Contents (Cont'd)

Page No.

C. Health Services ........................................... 55

i) General Indicators ...... ............................. 55

ii) Public Sector Programs and Institutional Constraints . 59
iii) Selected Policy Issues ............................... 61

D. Sanitation: Safe Water and Sewerage Services .... ......... 71

i) General Indicators ................. ..................71

ii) Government Programs, Past Investments and Sector
Objectives ................................................
74
iii) Investment Cost Estimates .............. ..............76
iv) Institutional and Financial Constraints ....... ....... 76

E. Conclusions and Resource Requirements for Expansion of

Social Services ......................................... 80

ANNEX 1: NOTE ON PARAGUAY'S STATISTICS .............................. 85

ANNEX 2: FISCAL REVENUE PROJECTIONS ................................. 98

STATISTICAL APPENDIX
 LIST OF TABLES (TEXT)

Table No. Title Page No.

1 PRESENT AND POTENTIAL LAND USE ........................... 2

2 SECTORAL COMPOSITION AND GROWTH OF REAL GDP 1972-80 ..... 7
3 SOURCES AND USES OF RESOURCES, AS % OF GDP, 1972-79..... 10
4 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCES, 1975-80.................... 11
5 BUDGETEDAND ACTUAL RESOURCES AND EXPENDITURE OF THE
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT, 1977-79 ...... ....................
14
6 SOURCES OF CHANGES IN MONEY SUPPLY, 1976-80 .... ........20
7 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1975-80 ........................... 24
8 PROJECTED NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, 1979-80.................... 29
9 PROJECTED BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, EXTERNAL CAPITAL
REQUIREMENTS AND FINANCING ........................... 31
10 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT, 1969-78 ......... .................... 38
11 PUBLIC SECTOR SPENDING ON EDUCATION, 1975-80 ............ 39
12 PRIMARY EDUCATION - NUMBEROF SCHOOLS, TEACHERS
AND STUDENTS .41
13 SCHOOL CONSTRUCTION COST ITEMS: AVERAGE QUALITY
STANDARD FOR RURAL PRIMARY SCHOOL .53
14 SCHOOL AREA AND STUDENT SERVICE CAPACITY FOR AVERAGE
TYPE RURAL SCHOOL.54
15 SUMMARY OF PROJECTED INVESTMENT COSTS UNDER THE
EXPANDEDEFFORT BENCHMARK.55
16 SELECTED HEALTH INDICATORS, 1960-78 ..... ...............
56
17 HEALTH COVERAGE INDICATORS BY REGIONAL HEALTH AREAS,
1977.63
18 INCIDENCE (PERCENTAGE)OF DIARREAH, PNEUMONIA-INFLUENZA,
HEART DISEASES AND TUBERCULOSIS IN DEATH CAUSES,
BY REGIONAL HEALTH AREA (1977).64
19 HEALTH PERSONNEL PER 1000 INHABITANTS DISTRIBUTED BY
REGIONAL DEPARTMENTS, 1974.67
20 HEALTH PERSONNEL BY PROFESSION, 1974-80 .68
21 INTER-COUNTRY HEALTH PERSONNEL COMPARISONS .68
22 DISTRIBUTION OF HEALTH PERSONNEL BY HEALTH INSTITUTIONS 70
23 SANITATION SERVICES .72
24 PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION WITH REASONABLE ACCESS TO
SAFE WATER .74
25 CORPOSANAAND SENASA INVESTMENT PLANS AS OF 1980.77
26 SELECTED PUBLIC SOCIAL SERVICE EXPENDITURES AND THEIR
RELATIONS TO GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 1979-80.80
27 SUMMARY OF SOCIAL COVERAGE INDICATORS.82
28 ADDITIONAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES REQUIRED IN TO MEET
HYPOTHESIZED TARGETS .84
 LIST OF TABLES (ANNEX 1 AND II)

Table No. Title Page No.

A.1 MERCHANDISE TRADE ........ ..............................
89
A.2 VALUE ADDED IN CONSTRUCTION SECTOR ..... .................
90
A.3 GDP BY EXPENDITURE, OFFICIAL DATA AND ADJUSTED .... ......93
A.4 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ........ .............................
94, 95, 96, 98
A.5 SUMMARY MATRIX OF TAX-BUOYANCY ESTIMATED "ELASTICITIES".. 100
A.6 SUMMARYOF RESULTS OBTAINED UNDER TWO ALTERNATIVE
HYPOTHESES OF TAX EFFORT
A.7 ANNUALTAX FLOWS UNDER ALTERNATIVE A PROJECTION ......... 105
A.8 ANNUALTAX FLOWS UNDER ALTERNATIVE B PROJECTION ......... 106
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 Page 1 of 2 pages

COUNTRY DATA - PARAGUAY

AREA 2/ POPULATION DENSITY

406,752 kar 2.9 million (mid-1979) 7 per km;/
Rate of Growth: 2.9% (1970-80) 18 per km2/of arable land

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS1979 HEALTH 1980

Average Birth Rate (per 1,000) 39.0 Populationper physician 1,82L
Average Death Rate (Der 1 000) 9.0 Populationper hospital bed 610
InfantMortality (per 1,060 live births) 89.1

INCOME DISTRIBUTION 1970 DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP

°/ of national income, highest quintile 62 7 owned by top 10% of owners
lowest quintile 4 % owned by smallest 10% of owners

ACCESS TO PIPED WATER1979 ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY 1978

% of population - urban 40 7. of population - urban 41.5
- rural 7 - rural 1.2

NUTRITION 1979 EDUCATION1979

Calorie intake as % of requirements 119 Adult literacy rate % 84
Per capita protein intake (gramsper day) 80 Primary school enrollment% 100

1/
GNP PER CAPITA in 1979: US$1,060

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1979 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH(%. constant prices)

UJS$ Mln. % 1965-70 1970-75 1975-79

GNP at Market Prices 3,398.3 100.0 4.1 7.0 10.4

Gross Domestic Investment 976.0 28.7 5.5 15.7 22.1
Gross National Savings 683.7 20.1 5.3 12.8 17.0
Current Account Balance -427.2 12.6
Exports of Goods, NFS 616.0 18.1 3.8 16.4 12.9
Imports of Goods, NFS 1,035.0 30.5 5.3 6.0 24.4

OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND

PRODUCTIVITYIN 1979
2/
Value Added Labor Force7 V. A. Per Worker
US$Mln. 7. _ln. % US $ %

Agriculture 1,072.7 31.3 0.546 46.0 1,964.7 68.2

Industry 748.1 22.1 0.232 19.6 3,258.6 113.1
Services 1,596.0 46.6 0.362 30.6 4,408.8 153.0
Unallocated 0.046 3.8 ._
Total/Average 3,167 100.0 1.186 100.0 2,881.7 100.0

GOVERNMENT FINANCE
MlPublic Sector Central Government
(¢Mln.) 7.of GDP ( ¢ Min.) % of GDP
1979 1975 1979 197i 19J__ 19i9

Current Receipts 76,277 15.9 17.7 43,662 9.4 10.1

Current Expenditure 52,018 12.0 12.0 28,930 7.6 6.7
Current Surplus 24,259 3.9 5.6 14,732 1.8 3.4
Capital Expenditures 24,129 8.8 5.6 11,842 2.4 2.8
External Assistance (net) 5,170 5.2 1.2 2,529 0.7 0.5

1/ The Per Capita GNP estimate is at current market prices, calculatedby the same conversion
technique as the 1980 World Atlas. All other conversionsto dollars in this table are
at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered.
2/ Total labor force; unemployed are allocated to sector of their normal occupation. "Unallocated"consists
mainly of unemployedworkers seeking their first job.

not available
not applicable
 Page 2 of 2 pages

COUNTRYDATA- PARAGUAY

MONEY, CREDIT and PRICES 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
Ci.11ion 4 outstanding end ;eriod) -

Money and Quasi Money 28,813 34,313 42,755 53,513 71,797 92,778
Bank Credit to Public Sector 3,457 2,935 1,793 -3,455 -8,974 -16,739
Bank Credit to Private Sector 26,306 30,440 36,049 44,221 58,244 73,118

(Percentagesor Index Numbers)

Money and Quasi Money as 7. of GDP 17.1 18.0 20.0 20.3 22.3 21.6
Wholesale Price Index 180.1 207.4 209.7 226.5 255.5 322.7
Annual percentage changes in:
Wholesale Price Index 30.5 15,2 1.1 8.Q 12,8 26,3
Bank credit to Public Sector -15.1 -15.5 -38.9
Bank credit to Private Sector 15.7 15.7 18.4 22.7 31.7 25.5

MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1977-79)

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS /1 US $ Mln %

1977 197 17
1978 1979
197 Livestock Products 24.1 5.6
(Millions US $) Lumber & other Wood Products 27.5 6.4

Exports of Goods, NFS 396.7 485.6 616.0 Soybean & other Seeds 60.6 14.1
Imports of Goods, NFS 571.9 805.2 1,035.0 Tobacco 10.5 2.5
Resource Gap (deficit - -) -175.2 -319.6 -419.0 Other 212.6 4926

Interest Payments (net) -14.0 -19.0 -10.0 Total 428.3 100.0

Workers' Remittances - - -
Other Factor Payments (net) -1.6 -5.1 -5.5
Net Transfers 1.2 5.8 7.3
Balance on Current Account -189.6 -337.8 -427.2 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31. 1979

Direct Foreign Investment 47.0 49.8 49.8 US $ Mln

Net MLT Borrowing 106.9 108.6 58.6 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed2! 490.5
Disbursements 122.7 128.1 84.4 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt 138.2
Amortization 15.8 19.5 25.8 Total Outstanding & Disbursed 628.7

Net Private Long term ca ii 15.0 26.3 52.4 DEBT SERVICE RATIO FOR 1979 -/
Other Capital (net) 149.0 222.1 296.3
Other items n.e.i -19.4 99.7 138.6
Increase in Reserves () -108.9 -168.7 -168.5 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 8.2
Non-Guaranteed Private Debt 5.0
Gross Reserves (end year) . .. ... Total Outstanding & Disbursed 13.2
Net Reserves (end year) 269.4 438.1 606.6

RATE OF EXCEANGE IBRD/IDA LENDING, DECEMBER31, 1979 (Million US $)

IBRD IDA

Outstanding& Disbursed 50.8 42.2

Undisbursed 138.8 6.4
Since - 1960 Outstandingincl. Undisbursed 189.6 48.6
US $ 1.00 = ¢ 126
1.00 = US $0.008

1/ includesunregisteredtrade.

2/ Repayable in foreign currency only.

not available

not applicable May 1981

Summary and Conclusions

1. In spite of the country's economic potential and the political

stability enjoyed since 1954, economic growth in Paraguay had been slow until
the beginning of the 1970s. Since then, growth has greatly accelerated,
largely as a result of the strong expansion of export agriculture and the
activities related to the construction of the Brazilian-Paraguayan Itaipu
hydroelectric project on the Parana River. The growth rate of the economy
rose from an annual average of 4.2% during 1960-70 and 6.6% during 1971-75 to
11.4% during 1976-80.

2. In relation to its population Paraguay is endowed with vast agricul-

tural, forestry, and livestock resources. Availability of land and favorable
international prices stimulated rapid expansion of export crops, and over the
decade of the 1970s production of cotton increased sevenfold and soybeans
fivefold. Output gains were based almost entirely on area expansion through
a largely spontaneous colonization process, which developed as a result of
congested conditions in the country's Central Region and the influx of foreign
colonists, mainly from Brazil. This process was supported directly by the
Government through the research and extension efforts of the Ministry of
Agriculture and Livestock (MAG), and the organizational efforts of the
Institute of Rural Welfare (IBR), and indirectly through the provision of
infrastructure. Participation of small farmers in this process has been
significant, as cotton production is an important crop in the minifundia areas
(some 74% of small farmers cultivate cotton), and many colonists in the new
colonization areas, where soybean cultivation is important, came from the
minifundia areas. Since 1978, prices of soybeans and cotton have been fluc-
tuating in the international market, while prices of domestic crops have been
increasing steadily because of their slower expansion in production. The
sector is thus in the process of consolidation, with a more balanced composi-
tion between export and domestic crops and a more diversified structure of
exports.

3. Construction of Itaipu, which began in 1976, has been the second

major factor determining the acceleration of growth. With an estimated
cost of about US$10 billion in 1979 prices, compared to Paraguay's GDP of
US$3.4 billion, the project has provided employment, stimulated the construc-
tion and manufacturing sectors, supplied foreign exchange, and attracted
foreign investment. Expenditures accruing to the Paraguayan economy have
averaged US$250 million for 1977-80, equivalent to 30% of domestic investment.
Although construction activity at Itaipu has now peaked, and expenditures will
decline during 1981-83, construction at a second major project on the Parana
River, Yacyreta, owned jointly with Argentina, is expected to become signi-
ficant over the same period, contributing to stemming the decline in the rate
of aggregate demand growth.

4. The Government's management of the economy has continued in accord-

ance with its long-established principles. Fiscal policy was characterized by
a strict control of expenditures and revenue increases in line with GDP growth
through 1979, resulting in an increase of the current account surplus of the
central government from 1.3% of GDP in 1976 to 3.4% in 1979. Capital expendi-
tures, which in 1976-79 averaged 3% of GDP, did not maintain a steady expansion,
reflecting in part the absence of a long-term investment program and the
limited execution capacity of the agencies, which were unable to utilize fully
 - ii -

the budgetary appropriationsthey received. Thus the central government

maintainedan overall surplus, which increased from 0.2% of GDP in 1977 to
0.6% in 1979. Increases in current expenditures,coupled with revenues
stagnatingin real terms, however, resulted in 1980 in an overall deficit
equivalentto 0.4% of GDP. That trend has continued during the first semester
of 1981.

5. The high level of aggregate demand has affected the relative price
stability that long characterizedthe economy. The rapid increase in the
money supply generated by the large capital inflows associatedwith construc-
tion of the Itaipu dam and the buoyant domestic demand had resulted in the
average inflation rate increasingmoderately from 5% in 1976 to 10.6% in 1978.
In 1979, however, the rate of increase in the consumerprice index accelerated
to 28.2% reflecting,in part, repressed inflationarypressures. Contributingto
this result were the increases in internationaloil prices, delayed adjustments
in some prices such as urban transport tariffs,unfavorableweather that
affected food crop production,increases in domestic beef prices (which weigh
heavily in the consumer price index), owing to unregisteredsales of cattle on
the hoof to Brazil and the inflationarysituation in neighboringBrazil and
Argentina. The accelerationof inflation has occurred in spite of contraction-
ary fiscal policies,whose impact was limited by the relativelysmall role of
the governmentin the economy.

6. In response to the inflation,the authoritiesadopted several

measures in late 1979 and early 1980 to strengthenand improve the function-
ing of the financial system. Interest rate ceilings on both loans and deposits
were raised, reserve requirements for non-banking financial intermediaries
were established, minimum capital requirements for banks and other financial
intermediaries were raised, and additional measures to restrict credit expan-
sion were imposed. Inflationary pressures receded considerably in 1980, when
the average rate was 22.4%. (The CPI index measured from December to December
fell from 35.7% in 1979 to 8.9% in 1980.) Main contributingfactors to this
slowdownappear to have been the restrictivemonetary policy, stabilization
of food prices related to favorable climatic conditions,reduced beef exports,
the levelingoff of sales of constructionservices to Itaipu, and lower prices
on goods imported from neighboring countries.

7. Official balance-of-payments data report that the current account

deficit increasedfrom 6.3% of GDP in 1976 to 10.4% in 1979. Foreign exchange
inflows,mainly related to Itaipu, financed these deficits and provided a
net increase in reserves from US$157 million in 1976 to US$776 million in
1980. Paraguay thus shows a comfortableexternal position,with gross reserves
coveringabout 10 months of imports of goods and non-factorservicesas
officiallyreported. 1/

1/ It should be noted that official trade data considerablyunderestimate

true flows. Estimates based on partner country data suggest merchandise
exports higher than official estimates by 28% in 1976 and by 70% in
1979, and imports by 33% in 1976 and 50% in 1979. These figures
indicate that both exports and imports have been growing faster than
official estimatesand result in a larger resource gap. These and
other statisticalproblems are discussed in the technical note in
Annex I of the report.
 - iii -

Economic Prospects and Policy Issues

8. Although projections of the Paraguayan economy are made difficult by

the fragility of the data and the rapid structural changes occuring, it is
reasonable to expect growth to continue at high rates based on expansion of
agricultural production and the economic activities related to construction of
the hydroelectric projects. There is sufficient land to sustain area expan-
sion at a rate comparable to that of 1972-79 (9.3% a year) beyond the end of
the present decade, and there is also a large population in the Minifundia
zone in need of land. Thus the colonization process, through which the
population is gaining access to the new land, will continue to play a vital
role for sustaining growth rates and improving living standards. The extent
to which the process benefits smallholders will increasingly depend on
government efforts to provide direct and indirect support. The economy
could grow at an average annual rate of about 9% during 1981-85, which is
slightly lower than the 11% of 1976-80 because of the expected decline of
activity on Itaipu after 1981, the economy's larger base, and restrictive demand
management policies to avoid both the accelei ..
Lion of inflation and a deteriora-
tion in the trade balance.

9. Sustaining these still high growth rates will be contingent upon

achieving the export expansion necessary to sustain a high level of imports.
Given the favorable prospects for agricultural exports and Paraguay's small
share in world markets, exports in real terms are projected to grow at 13.5%
during 1981-85. Even with this strong export performance, however, revenues
would be insufficient to maintain the historical growth of imports. Given the
large proportion of consumer goods in the composition of imports, it should be
possible to slow the growth of imports without impairing growth possibilities
for the economy. Hence, imports are projected to grow at a slower rate (9%
for 1981-85) than in the past. Strong export performance together with the
slower expected growth of imports could thus reduce the resource gap from
about 12% of GDP in 1979 to 5% in 1985. The current account deficit is
expected to remain in the range of US$400-530 million until the late 1980's,
when compensation payments for electricity begin to accrue. Gross capital
requirements to finance the current account deficit, as well as to maintain an
appropriate level of reserves, are projected to total about US$3.5 billion
during the period 1981-85. About US$1.7 billion of this is expected to be
covered by Itaipu and Yacyreta financing. Another US$0.9 billion may be
expected in the form of private sector borrowing. Thus, only about US$0.9
billion may be needed on the public account, of which US$383 million would be
needed for amortization. Given projected export performance, Paraguay is
expected to reduce its current low debt-service ratio and maintain its credit-
worthiness for the amounts of external capital required to achieve the projected
output growth.

10. Paraguay has entered a period of high sustained growth which

gives the country the opportunity to redress more effectively and more
directly the situation of large segments of the population still living
in poverty, to exploit more efficiently its resources, and to set the course
for the country's future development. The core of the Government's economic
 - iv -

policies--cautiousfiscal and monetary policies, the reliance on the private

sector and the market mechanism for the allocationof resources,and
the general absence of undue governmentintervention--seemto be suited to the
country'scurrent circumstancesand stage of developmentand should continue
to be the bases for future policy.

11. Nevertheless,the accelerationof growth, the rapid changes taking

place in the economic structure of the country, and the increasingavail-
ability of external resources both open up new possibilitiesand raise new
policy issues. The Governmenthas stated its developmentobjectivesin the
1977-81 NationalDevelopment Plan and other official documents,stressing the
need to maintain the present high rates of economic growth and to achieve a
wide distributionof its benefits. Some existing policies and regulations,
however, do not seem to be serving the stated objectives. In addition,
new requirementsstem from the process of growth itself and from the need to
translate current economicgains into permanent and widely distributedgains
in the welfare of the population.

12. Perhaps the clearestexample is the need to accelerateand con-

solidate the income gains of campesinos,the majority of whom still live at
the poverty level. The potential exists--inthe form of land and financial
resources--toincrease support. In this regard, the resources presently
available to the institutionsin charge of providing direct support (MAG,
IBR, SNF, MOPTC) to these producers will have to be augmented. More broadly,
the public sector needs to upgrade its planning, administrativeand execution
capacitiesto be able to respond to the economy'sgrowing needs for pro-
ductive support and services,many of which do not respond automaticallyto
market mechanisms. Improvementof the country'shuman resources becomes also
increasinglyrelevant, both to meet the requirementsof the growth process
itself and to achieve the social objectivesof development. Education and
training thus acquire an increasinglycritical role quantitativelyas well
as qualitatively.

13. Progress in this directionwill require a greater resourcemobiliza-

tion effort. A gradual but integral revision of the tax system would be
beneficial,with the objective of increasingrevenues, facilitatingtax admi-
nistration,increasingthe economy-s efficiency,and reducing costs to both
taxpayers and tax collectors. In the area of monetary policy some of the
existing regulations on interest rates, reserve requirements and taxes on
financial transactionsare having negative effects under the current infla-
tionary conditionsand could be revised to improve the financial system'srole
in stimulatingsavings and channelingthem to productiveinvestments. Among
the regulationson the external system, special attention should be given
to the dual exchangesystem, given its effects on the competitiveposition
of domestic producers in agricultureand industry, on the growing shift of
internationaltrade flows to irregular channels,with the large implications
of the latter on fiscal revenues, and on the availabilityof accurate data
to policymakers.
14. To assure that increasinglycomplex decisions are based on adequate
analysisof the available options and trade-offs,the National Council of
Economic Coordinationand the Economic Team should have the support of an
institution--whichcould be the Technical Planning Secretariat(STP) suitably
strengthened--thatprovides the technical backgroundto policy decisions
and is responsiblefor evaluatingavailable options, assessing needs and
possibilities,and ensuring coherence between various policy decisions.

15. It is also important that the availabilityand quality of data be

improved. Present shortcomingsinclude the use of outdated itdicators in the
estimationof the nationalaccounts, the separate treatmentof the hydro-
electricprojects and the large under-reportingof internationaltrade.
An important improvementof data is expected to result from the agricultural
census to be carried out with Bank support, and from the establishmentof the
Financial ProgrammingUnit in the Ministry of Finance under the Bank's Second
PreinvestmentProject. Similar efforts should be made in other sectors,while
a gradual upgrading of the technical level of the agencies connected to the
decision-makingprocess, creates the demand for improvementof data and
for raising the quality of analysis.

Provision of Social Services

16. The accelerationof growth and change has had an uneven effect On
the country's socio-economic development, and the lagging sectors could
eventually become bottlenecksto continued growth. The developmentof social
services,which are, to a large extent, a responsibilityof governmentand
do not automaticallyrespond to market signals,has tended to lag behind
the pace of economic growth, and raising the current levels of coveragewill
be one of the challengesfor Paraguay'sdevelopmentdurinlgthe 1980's. The
expandedprovision of social services,particularlyin education and health,
is necessary not only for basic needs satisfactionbut also for sustainingthe
economicgrowth process itself in the long run.

17. The rapid growth of income in recent years has not been readily
translated into increased coverage of social services. Since the greater
availabilityof resources is a relativelyrecent phenomenon,the financial
arrangementsand institutionalmechanisms to launch a vigorous social services
expansionprogram do not exist. Efforts to expand serviceshave been increas-
ing, but, owing to the existing large deficits inherited from past stagnation
and lack of resources,the situation is unsatisfactory,characterizedby low
coverage levels, aggravatedby a skewed distribution,which greatly favors the
urban areas.

18. In the education sector, even though the existing indicatorsare

inconsistentand unreliable,they neverthelessshow an unsatisfactorysitua-
tion. The adult literacy rate is reported at 84%, but the population'saverage
schooling is only about 3 years. At the primary level, the gross enrollment
ratio is 100%, but only 46% of students are in the grade correspondingto their
age, and at the secondary level the enrollmentratio is only 26%. Financial
 - vi -

resources are limited, and so is the availability of infrastructure, materials

and well trained teachers. Although the needs are large at all educational
levels, the priority seems to be in rural primary education to diminish the
large disparities between urban and rural areas, and to prepare the labor
force, giving it a degree of adaptability to respond to the yet undefined
specific demands of the economy in the future.

19. Expansion of education services has been supported by the IBRD;

provision of infrastructure has been complemented with institutional support
in the form of curriculum reform, teacher training and improvements in the
Ministry of Education's (MOE) planning capacity. The education system still
has to adapt its curriculum more effectively to the perceived needs of students
and to the requirements of the economy. In rural areas it is necessary that
primary education be conducive to higher educational levels which, in turn,
will make practical the student's efficient incorporation into the active labor
force. Projections show that substantial improvements in net enrollment
ratios and retention rates can be achieved with affordable increases in
current expenditures for teachers' salaries, materials, and administrative
support, and investment expenditures for additional school and classroom space.

20. Although health indicators, such as life expectancy at birth (64

years) and nutrition levels, are favorable in relation to the country's
income level, high infant-mortality rates and the incidence of epidemical
and water-borne diseases reveal the inadequacies of the health system.
These stem from the insufficient and uneven distribution of resources,
institutional constraints and the shortage of health personnel. The
Ministry of Health and Social Assistance (MSPBS) has the main responsibility
for expansion of services, and its efforts are being supported by the Inter-
american Development Bank (IDB). The core of the current health program is
the establishment of the National Health System, which will integrate a
nationally distributed network of service centers offering four levels of
service, ranging from simple health posts to specialized hospitals. This
system is at the planning stage, and additional efforts, both in terms of
financial resources and execution capacities, will be required to make the
system operative. Among the administrative problems, the issue of salaries and
incentives for professionals working outside the capital are the most urgent.

21. In the sanitation sector, coverage levels are low: only 18% of
households have water via house connections, and 11% have sewerage connec-
tions, most of them in the urban areas. The clearest effects of this situa-
tion are the high infant-mortality rates and the incidence of water-borne
diseases. The two institutions in charge of providing these services --
CORPOSANA and SENASA -- suffer from institutional problems stemming from their
insufficient financial, administrative and human resources, which, regarding
availability of professional staff, have been aggravated by the demand from
the hydroelectric projects and the private sector.
 - vii -

22. Summarizing, the situation in the social services area is one

characterized by low coverage ratios, exacerbated by a skewed distribution of
services with concentration in Asuncion, followed by the rest of urban areas,
and with the lowest levels in the rural areas. The institutions in the field
are weak and the resources devoted are low by almost any standard. Although
efforts are increasing and progress has been achieved, greater resources and
concerted efforts to solve institutional problems are require . The financial
resources necessary to improve the situation are within the current means of
Paraguay. What is needed is commitment to a program and the institutional
improvements to carry it out. Failure to expand these services could even-
tually jeopardize the country's capacity to sustain the current high economic
growth rates.
 PARAGUAY - ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM

In view of the developmentneeds identifiedin previousmissions,

this report gives particularattention to analyzing selected issues in the
social sectors (education,health and sanitation). Thus, Chapters I and II
update informationon the country's overall economic situation,and Chapter III
concentrateson the social sectors.

I RECENT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

A. Background

1. The course of Paraguay'seconomic developmenthas been deeply

influencedby the country's turbulenthistory, as wars with neighboring
countries and internal civil disorder l/ prevented the effective exploitation
of the country'svast agricultural,livestock,and forestry resources. With
the populationconcentratedin the Central Region (Departmentsof Caazapa,
Cordillera,Guaira, Paraguari and Central) and dependent basically on the
agriculturalsector, Paraguay remained among the least developed countries
of Latin America.

(i) Resource Endowment

2. The country's natural resources consist mainly of a large land area

suitable for agriculture (Table 1) and the hydroelectricpotential of the
Parana River. The Paraguay River divides the country into two well dif-
ferentiatedareas. The Western part, called the Chaco, comprises 60% of the
total area but contains only about 3% of the population. Its economic
potential is limited by unevenly distributedrain fall (500mm/year),with
alternatingperiods of drought and flooding. Although some successfulmixed
farming operationshave been developed by Mennonite groups, indicatingthe
region's potential,most economic activity in the Chaco is limited to exten-
sive ranchingoperations. More intensive activitywould require heavy
investmentsin water developmentand the influx of well organizedand tech-
nically capable colonists. In the short and medium term, Eastern Paraguay
offers better prospects.

1/ The TripartiteWar (1865-1870)against Argentina,Brazil and Uruguay; the

Chaco War (1932-35)against Bolivia; and internalcivil strife in the
late 'fortiesand early 'fifties.
 - 2-

Table 1: PRESENT AND POTENTIALLAND USE

(Thousandsof hectares)

Present 1/ Potential 2/
1972 % 1979 % %

Crops 952 2.3 1,781 4.4 8,000 19.7

Pasture land 3/ 14,849 35.5 17,291 42.5 14,050 34.5
Forest 23,921 58.8 20,643 50.8 17,672 43.4
Other 953 2.3 960 2.3 953 2.3

TOTAL 40,675 100.0 40,675 100.0 40,675 100.0

1/ Encuesta Agropecuariapor Muestreo, 1973 and 1980.

2/ IBRD AgriculturalSector Report, 1972.
31 Lower figure for pasture land in potential than in present use reflects
a desirable transfer of part of current pasturelandto crops.

3. Eastern Paraguay, comprisingsome 16 million ha, contains 98% of

the country's land now in crops. Physical conditionsare favorable,with
rainfallaveraging 1,500 mm annually and generally well distributedthrough
the year. It is estimated that about 30% of the region consists of soils
suitablefor intensive agriculture,20% for moderate agriculturaland
livestockuse, 40% mainly for livestock,and the remaining 10% for forest
use only. Climate and soil compositionvary within the region, and while
this heterogeneitygives opportunitiesfor crop diversification,it also
imposes the need for careful managementof soils and planning of settle-
ments to avoid problems of erosion and loss of fertility.

4. Eastern Paraguay also containsmost of the country's valuable forest

areas, which are being exploited and cleared at acceleratingrates. An FAO
study made for the National Forestry Service (SNF) estimated that in 1976
about 26% of the region was in forests (approximately4 million ha); since
then, the rate of deforestationhas been estimated at anywhere between 60,000
and 150,000 ha per annum. An overall assessmentof wood productionpotential
and reforestationneeds does not exist.

5. The hydropowerpotential of the Parana River constitutesthe other

major natural resource of the Region. Currently, three hydroelectricprojects,
with a total planned capacity of 20,000 MW and eventual generationof over
100 billion Kwh annually, are at various stages of planning and execution.
The Itaipu project, being constructed jointly with Brazil and situated near
Ciudad PresidenteStroessner (CPS), will be the largest hydroplantin the
world, with a capacity of 12,600 MW. The preliminaryworks are underway for
Yacyreta, in conjunctionwith Argentina,and, after considerabledelays,
constructionis expected to start shortly. Corpus, which is located between
Itaipu and Yacyreta, is still in the planning stage.
6. Paraguay's other known energy sources include its vast forestry
resources. Exploration for oil has been taking place, and in the past 34 years
36 wells have been drilled with little success. Large areas of the country,
however, have either not been explored at all or only partially explored.
Since all of the country's petroleum needs are being met by imports, the
cost of which are rapidly increasing, further seismic/exploration work needs
to be carried out to evaluate fully the country's petroleum potential.

(ii) Social and Economic Conditions

7. The population of Paraguay, largely of Spanish and Indian descent,

is culturally fairly homogeneous and lives mainly in rural areas. The 1972
census indicated that 63% of the population was rural. 1/ According to the
same census, 56% of the total population lived in the Central Region, 2/
representing 73% of the urban and 470 of the rural populition. Thus, the
Central Region had 70 inhabitants/Km2 (36 inhabitants/Km for the rural area)
vs. an average of 4.5 inhabitants/Km for the c-intry. The Central Region
plus the Livestock and Eje Norte Regions comprise 70% of the rural population.

8. The uneven distribution of population reflects the pronounced

differences in the natural endowment and land use of Eastern and Western
Paraguay, land quality differences within each region, and the gradual
infrastructural development. The geographic concentration of population has
resulted also in an uneven interpersonal distribution of land: the 1956
Agricultural Census indicated that 47% of farms had less than five ha, while
3% had more than 50 ha. This structure has not changed substantially since
then; a 1970 survey indicated that 7% of farm units had less than one ha,
and 42% less than five ha. Even in the regions of high population density,
the distribution of land is markedly skewed; the 1980 study made in coopera-
tion with the IDB and OAS for a rural development project in Paraguari indi-
cates that of 24,000 existing farm units, 10% occupy 85% of the total area,
and 55% have less than five ha each. Absence of reliable data on the size and
composition of farms in the colonization areas, makes it difficult to
analize their impact, if any, on the existing structure. 3/

9. Information on land distribution and living conditions of the rural

population in Eastern Paraguay is provided by a 1978 survey prepared for USAID, 4/

1/ The census defined as urban the population living in district capitals,

regardless of size. Estimates of the Planning Secretariat (STP), res-
tricting the definition of the urban to towns of over 2,000 inhabitants,
indicated that 70% of the population was rural in 1980.

2/ STP differentiates five regions: Central or minifundio, Livestock

(departments of Misiones and Neembucu), Eje Norte (San Pedro, Amambay,
Concepcion), Itapua and New Colonization (Canendiyu and Alto Parana).

3/ During 1970-79 the Institute of Rural Welfare (IBR) reports having issued
25,000 land titles.

4/ Judith Fincher Laird, "Rural Women in Paraguay: The Socio Economic

Dimension," December 1979, Asuncion, Paraguay.
 - 4 -

according to which familieswithout land and those cultivating less than

five ha comprised 77% of the populationof the entire Region and 87% of the
MinifundiaZone. Over half of the families (54%) had per capita incomes of
less than 020,000 (US$160),USAID's defined poverty level. There were
significantgeographicalvariations in income levels, with the traditional
agriculturalareas (Central,Livestock and Eje Norte zones) having the highest
proportionsof low-incomefamilies. The Survey also reported that 55% of
familiesowned possessionsvalued at less than US$50; 79% had radios, but
fewer had more expensive items such as sewing,machines(28%) and refrigerators
(9%); only 10% had improved latrines, and 72% cooked on the ground. The
survey also confirmedan inverse relationshipbetween geographicimmobility
(as measured by length of residence)and income, and a positive one between
educationand income. Twenty-two percent of the surveyed populationhad no
formal education,and 86% had not completed the primary level. Relative
incomes were lower in the Minifundio Zones and higher in Itapua (an "old"
colonization area with many foreign settlers: German, Brazilians, Japanese),
the new colonizationareas falling in the middle. The survey does not provide
informationon farm equipment,but studies made by IBR in relation to rural
developmentprojects found that colonists have little capital accumulation.
For example,in the Caaguazu-AltoParana area it was found that only 10% of
arriving colonistshad steel plows, 80% had no cash capital, and only 20% had
livestock. Thus, low income levels are associatedwith limitationson access
to land, capital, infrastructure and improved technologies; low educational
levels; and the effects of these factors on initiative and entrepreneurship.

10. Nevertheless, owing to the country's overall favorable climatic

conditions,which allow campesinosto grow a variety of foods for their own
consumption,there is no widespread abject poverty as substantiatedby
national indicators on nutrition and life expectancy. Consumption of calories
is reported at 122% of minimum requirements compared to the 107.4% average for
Latin America; protein consumptionis 80 gr. per day compared to 65.6 gr.; and
life expectancyis 64 years, the same as the average for Latin America.
Rather than insufficientavailabilityof food, nutrition problems arise from
inadequacyin diet composition,which is heavy in beef, cassava and beans, and
low in vegetablesand milk products. Infant mortality rate (84.9 per 1,000
live births) is relativelyhigh as a consequenceof lack of safe water and
sewage disposal systems,which contributesto a high incidence of diarrheaand
other water-bornediseases (see Ch. 3 Section D).

11. Growth of the urban populationhas been slow. The small internal
market and the landlockedposition of the country,which imply costly and
unreliableinternationaltransport,did not favor the developmentof industry.
In addition, the government did not pursue an industrializationpolicy.
As a consequence, Asuncion did not offer attractive and expanding employment
opportunities,so potential migrants from the rural areas and smaller cities
outside Asuncionwent to Buenos Aires and to the Colonizationareas. Employ-
ment conditionswere studied in some detail in a 1973 study 1/, which concluded

1/ OrganizacionInternacionaldel Trabajo (PREALC), "La Situaciony

Perspectivasdel Empleo en Paraguay," 1973.
 - 5 -

that in the Asuncion area the rate of unemployment reached 12%, (7% for
household heads), and that underemployment affected some 52% of the total
labor force.

12. Two other, not strictly comparable surveys were conducted in 1976
and 1979. The partial results available indicate substantial improvement in
employment conditions, particularly between 1976 and 1979. Open unemployment
had dropped from the 12% reported in 1973 to 6.7% in 1976 and 6.3% in 1979.
Moreover, the proportion of income recipients receiving less than the equivalent
of about US$50.0 weekly in 1977 guaranies fell from 44% in 1973 to 38% in 1976
and 19% in 1979. It is not possible to make additional comparisons because of
the data format, but the tendency toward improved employment and wage conditions
is clear. Furthermore, the emigration to Buenos Aires was reversed, with many
Paraguayans returning to take advantage of the expanding economic opportunities.

B. Development Efforts and Recent Economic Trends

13. Since 1954, when the present regime came to power, the country has
experienced a period of political stability. In spite of the country's
economic potential, however, stability alone was not sufficient to accelerate
the rate of growth. Government efforts were directed initially to controlling
inflation, which for the period 1947-56 had averaged 50% a year, the highest
in Latin America. Through successive stabilization programs, designed with
the help of the IMF, inflation was eventually brought under control, but a
more positive development effort was constrained by the low level of public
sector revenues and by the fact that mobilization of resources was not given
high priority. Nevertheless, with external support and in part as a response
to strategic considerations, roads were built into the interior, and forestry
and agricultural production gradually developed outside the immediate Asuncion
area. Progress was initially slow but has shown a steady tendency to accelerate.
From 1953 to 1960 GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.3%, a rate that was insuffi-
cient even to maintain the level of per capita income; in the 1960s the growth
rate improved to 4.2% per annum. Finally, annual GDP growth jumped to 7.1%
during 1971-75 and to 11.4% during 1976-80.

(i) Recent Growth Performance

14. Discussion of the recent economic trends is based on Paraguayan

official data and on mission estimates which, because of the reliability
problems discussed in Annex 1 of this report, are subject to wide margins
of error. Still, even if the absolute values of the macro-economic variables
are being underestimated, the identified trends seem to be reflecting actual
tendencies.

15. The acceleration of growth during the 1970s was the result of
a combination of internal and external factors. Government investments in
infrastructure (mainly roads) and colonization programs facilitated the
incorporation of land to production and combined, with favorable external
demand, led to a rapid expansion of some export crops, most notably soybeans
and cotton. Expenditures related to construction of Itaipu stimulated the
industrial (including construction) and services sectors, further boosting
growth of the economy.
 - 6 -

16. Performanceof the agriculturalsector has been mixed. Overall

sectoraloutput during the period 1972-80 grew at an annual rate of 7.5%
but with widely varying experiencewithin the sector, particularlyas between
export crops and crops for domestic consumption. Among the factors favoring
the sector'sgrowth were the above-noted investmentsin roads, supplementedby
the distributionof public lands, regularizationof land ownership of squatters
and provision of supportingservices. An additionalimportant factor for the
increase in productionhave been the private colonizationschemes, with wide
participationof more commerciallyorientedforeign colonists.

17. Agriculturecontinues to be the backbone of the economy,accounting

for 31% of GDP and employing some 50% of the labor force. Sixty percent of
value added in industry is derived from processingagriculturalproducts,
and 95% of export earnings come from agriculturalproducts in various stages
of processing. While the overall sector's structurehas not changed much,
the crop subsectorhas become more externallyoriented (export crops increased
from 14% of total value added in 1972 to 28% in 1979), and agriculturalexports
have become more diversified. The share of domestic crops decreased from
50% in 1972 to 38% in 1979, while livestock and forestry production
togetherremained at about 34%.

18. Probably the most important factor explainingthe rapid expansion

of export crops (18% a year between 1972 and 1979) was the rise in the prices
of cotton and soybeans during the late 1960's and the early 1970's. In 1973
the price of soybeans rose by 200% and the price of cotton by 68%, and even
though these prices have since fluctuatedconsiderably,they stimulatedthe
rapid expansion that ensued. The high prices of soybeans stimulatedmigration
of Brazilian colonists,who broulghtequipment and technologyfor the produc-
tion of soybeans as well as for new crops such as mint, tannin and other oil
seeds. The expansion of cotton, in addition,was facilitatedby research
efforts at the Ministry of Agriculture (MAG), with assistancefrom the French
Government,which resulted in developmentof improved seeds. The growth and
compositionof agriculturalexports, however,was also affectednegativelyby
external factors such as the closure of the EEC market to beef exports in 1974
and the closure of the Argentinianmarket to wood exports in 1975. As a
result, beef exports in 1979 were only 13% of their value in 1972; wood exports
after declining by 20% from 1971 to 1976, recuperatedsubsequently(Table 3.2b
StatisticalAppendix).

19. While external demand and improved prices promoted expansionof

export crops, productionof domestic crops tended to lag. Populationgrowth
and growing incomes,however, have again raised demand for food crops, and
prices have been improving. The slow expansion of domestic crops was a
factor contributingto the accelerationof inflation,the food component of
the CPI rising by 26% in 1978 and 38% in 1979. The improved prices for these
crops again stimulatedproductionin 1980, and the sector began a process
of consolidationwith a more balanced compositionbetween export and domestic
crops.

20. Prices for the major export crops have recently stagnated in real
terms: the internationalprice index for soybeans,with 1970 = 100, stood at
83.6 in 1979 and for cotton at 84.6. At the same time, domestic production
 Table 2 SECTORAL COMPOSITION AND GROWTH OF REAL GDP 1972-80-/
(Percent)

Growth Rates Composition (Current prices)

Average Annual 2/%
1972 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Growth Rate, 1972-80- 1972 1976 1979

Agriculture 6.2 8.2 3.7 11.1 5.9 6.7 9.2 7.5 34.9 34.6 31.3

Manufacturing, Construction, 20.1 19.7 22.1

Mining 9.9 1.4 7.9 22.0 14.0 13.0 16.2 11.5
4.7 5,8 5.9
Infrastructure 10.6 15.6 12.0 9.4 12.9 13.9 13.3 12.4
40.3 39.9 40.8
Other Services 4.5 6.0 8.9 10.1 13.2 12.2 10.2 9.1 100 100 100

Gross Domestic Product 6.4 6.3 7.0 12.8 10.9 10.7 11.4 9.3

GDP in Current US$ 769.0 1,511.4 1,699.0 2,092.2 2,559.9 3,416.8 4,448.1

/ Official data.

2/ Least - Square Growth Rate

Source: Appendix Table 2.2.

 -8 -

costs have been steadily increasing. Informationfrom crop budgets for cotton
and soybeans prepared for Banco Nacional de Fomento (BNF) show that between
1975 and 1979 nominal labor costs increased by 200% and costs of other inputs
by 58%. During the same period prices of soybeans in the international
market rose only by 33% and of cotton by 38%, while average yields for these
two crops remainedstagnant. Costs have been rising as a result of a tighter
labor market, the increase in the price of oil and the general accelerationin
the rate of domestic inflation. Since the exchange rate of the Guarani
to the dollar has remained fixed, the profitabilityof these crops has been
eroding, and continuationof this trend would affect possibilitiesfor a
continuedexpansion of exports and the incomes of small agriculturalproducers.

21. The AID survey (paragraph9) confirms that a high proportion (74%
for cotton) of agriculturalproducers at the poverty level are engaged in the
productionof cotton and, to a lesser extent, soybeans,making their already
made and potential income gains highly dependent on the export prospects of
these two crops. Expansion of output has been achievedmainly through expan-
sion of area planted, as average yields are still low (Table 7.9, Statistical
Appendix) indicatingthe potential to increaseproductionthrough raising
productivity. This will require, however, use of improvedtechnologiesand
of more inputs,which can be financed only if the relation of output prices
to costs is not allowed to deteriorate.

22. Constructionof Itaipu, which began in 1976, has played a major

role in the evolution of the economy. With an estimated total cost of about
US$10 billion in 1979 prices over a 10-year constructionperiod, compared to
Paraguay'sGDP of US$3.4 billion, the project has provided employmentat
attractivesalaries,stimulatedthe constructionand manufacturingsectors,
supplied foreign exchange and attracted foreign investment. Expenditureson
Itaipu have been steadily increasingfrom about US$300 million in 1976 to
1.3 billion in 1980. Of these amounts, between 20 and 25% have gone to
Paraguay, averagingabout US$250 million for 1977-80, in the form of salaries
paid to Paraguayanworkers and payments for materials and services. Direct
constructionactivity on the dam and complementaryinfrastructureentrusted to
Paraguayanconcernshas been carried out by a consortiumof seven Paraguayan
firms (CONEMPA),which in turn subcontractsto smaller firms. Several small
and medium-sizedplants producing constructionmaterials,window and door
frames, bricks, shingles, cement blocks, etc. have been set up in the environs
of Ciudad PresidenteStroessner(CPS). Direct employmentin the project and
complementaryworks increased from 5,500 Paraguayansin 1976 to about 14,000
in 1979, when employmentpeaked, diminishing to about 12,000 in 1980 (about 20%
of the total labor force in the constructionsector).

23. The impact of this project, and more recentlyYacyreta, on the

economy is somewhat obscuredby its statisticaltreatmentoutside the national
and external accounts. Indeed, the accounts of the Itaipu BinationalEntity
are done in Brazil and do not attempt to portray the binationalcharacter of
the entity. As a consequence,official estimates of the national and external
accounts understateGDP, investment,exports and imports. 1/

1/ The questionof the effects of Itaipu and their treatment in the national
accounts is further discussed in Annex 1.
 - 9 -

24. The manufacturingsector is closely dependent on agriculture,as some

65% of its value added originates in agroindustries. Its performance (8% annual
growth rate from 1972 to 1979) has been similar to that of the rest of the
economy,and thus its participationin GDP has remained at about 16% and in
employmentat 14%. Sector performancehas been affected by the decline of the
meat industry,which in turn affected the leather and hide industries. Since
1977, however, expendituresrelated to Itaipu and the good performanceof the
agriculturalsector -- in particular export crops--havehelped to sustain the
sector's growth at an annual average of over 12%.

25. Expansion of industriesrelated to export crops (cotton ginning,

oil processing,wood) and those related to construction(glass, non-metalic
minerals) has been strong; higher incomes have also stimulatedgrowth of
consumptiongoods industries such as beverages,paper, tobacco, textiles,
and shoes. Investmentsunder the InvestmentPromotion Law 550 1/ increased
rapidly through 1979 but slowed in 1980 owing to the accelerationof inflation
and the rise in oil prices. The sector'sgrowth continues to be constrained
by Paraguay'sdisadvantagedgeographic location, the lack of infrastructure
and limited financialand entreprenurialcapacity. Thus consumergoods
industriesface the constraintof the small domesticmarket; the further
processingof export crops confronts technological,marketing and financial
problems; and industriessupplying Itaipu face the temporarynature of its
demand. The future availabilityof electricity,on the other hand, may
facilitatedelineationof a new industrialstrategyaimed at providing
employmentfor the labor force that will be freed from mechanizationand
higher productivityin the agriculturalsector and the phasing out of con-
structionactivity at the hydroelectricprojects. At present, two studies
looking into these possibilitiesare being carried out (paragraph71).

26. The constructionsector has been the most dynamic,with growth rates
of over 30% since 1977 as a result of Itaipu related investments,Government
investmentsin infrastructureand private residentialconstructionin Asuncion.
The latter has been stimulatedby financing from the saving and loan associa-
tions, which enjoy advantagesin attractingdeposits over other financial
intermediaries(paragraph52). Finally, growth of the services sectors
reflect the higher levels of income attained by the populationand the expan-
sion of other sectors.

1/ This law, dated December 19, 1975, aims at stimulating,through tariff

and tax exemptions,investmentsto increase productionand to promote
developmentof the regions outside Asuncion.
 - 10 -

Table 3: SOURCESAND USES OF RESOURCES,AS % OF GDP,

1972-1979

Adj.
1972 1974 1979 1979 a/

GDP at market prices b/ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Imports 13.8 17.8 19.1 36.2

Exports 13.8 15.5 10.8 20.3
Resource GAP 0.0 2.3 8.3 15.9

Available Resources 100.0 102.3 108.3 115.9

Consumption 85.0 81.3 79.7 80.1
Gross Investments 15.0 21.0 28.6 35.9
Gross Domestic Savings 15.0 18.7 20.3 19.1
Gross National Savings 13.0 17.5 19.8

a/ From Table 1 of Annex 2. Includes adjustmentsfor unregisteredtrade

and transactionsof the hydroelectricprojects.
b/ Official estimates in current prices.

27. Growth has been accompanied by rapid capital formation. Investment

has increased from about 15% of GDP in 1972 to 24% in 1975 to close to 30% in
1980 (excludingdirect investmentin Itaipu). The private sector accounts for
the major share (about 80%) of total investment. The increasing levels of
investmenthave been financed largely by domestic savings, although the
participationof external savings has been increasing. Private consumption
shows a slightly declining tendency as a share of GDP, although it has grown
at 8.3% a year from 1975 to 1979.

(ii) Management of the Economy

28. The Government'smanagement of the economy has been shaped by, among
others, the following factors: (1) an explicit policy to limit the role of the
public sector, leaving primary initiativeto the private sector as guided by
the market; (2) a high concentrationof authority and decision-makingcapacity
within the public sector as a whole and also within each institutionor
agency; and (3) memory of the chronic financial difficultieslong faced by the
public sector in Paraguay. The basic philosophyunderlyingeconomicpolicy,
therefore,has been one of no undue interferencein the economy,maintenance
of monetary equilibrium,and conservativepublic finances. Participationof
the public sector in the economy has been relativelysmall, and the large
share of governmentin total employment (8.5% of the labor force in 1979)
originatesfrom the long period of economic stagnation,when employmentoppor-
tunitieswere few, and the Governmentwas almost the only available alternative.
The numbers of governmentworkers, however, are large only at the lower
echelons. The cadre of high caliber technical staff remains very limited.
 - 11 -

29. When the economy was smaller, growing slowly and relatively isolated,
the lack of administrative and planning capacities were not evident bottlenecks.
With the acceleration of growth and the entry of Paraguay into a period of
rapid and profound structural change, however, there is an urgent need to
upgrade the capacity of public sector institutions to supply the needed
investments in social and physical infrastructure. At the same time, admini-
strative weaknesses are being exacerbated by the loss to the hydroelectric
projects and to the private sector of many able public sector professionals
and technicians.

Fiscal Policy and Public Finances

30. Fiscal policy has been characterized by a strict control of expendi-

tures. The Central Government's current expenditures have grown at a slower
rate than GDP (6.9% over 1975-79) and thus declined as a proportion of GDP
from 7.6% in 1975 to 6.7% in 1979. At the same time, revenues kept pace
with GDP growth, increasing from 9.4% of GDP *n 1975 to 10.1% in 1979.
Consequently, the savings position of the CenLral Government improved.
Capital expenditures, which have fluctuated from year to year because of the
bulky nature of some projects, averaged 3% of GDP during 1976-79 compared to
2% during 1972-75. From 1977 to 1979 the Central Government generated an
overall surplus which increased from 0.2% of GDP to 0.8%. These surpluses
were deposited in the Central Bank as part of the anti-inflation program.
Increases in current expenditures coupled with lagging revenues, however,
resulted in a sharp decline in the current surplus and the reappearance of
an overall deficit equivalent to 0.4% of GDP in 1980. A larger deficit is now
expected in 1981, as revenues have continued to lag.

Table 4: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCES, 1975-80

(as percentage of nominal GDP)

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Current revenue, of which: 9.4 9.0 10.0 10.6 10.1 9.2

Tax revenue, of which 8.6 8.1 9.2 9.8 9.4 8.5
International trade 2.8 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.2 2.7

Current expenditure, 7.6 7.7 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.9

of which: wage bill 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.8

Current Account Surplus 1.8 1.3 2.8 3.6 3.4 2.3

Capital expenditure, of 2.4 3.1 2.6 3.6 2.8 2.6

which: fixed capital
formation 2.0 2.7 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.9

Overall Surplus/Deficit (-) -0.6 -1.8 0.2 0.1 0.8 -0.4

External Financing (net) 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.6 2.2

Internal Financing (net) -0.2 0.2 -1.2 -0.6 -1.4 -1.8

Source: IMF and Mission Estimates

 - 12 -

31. The General Governmentconsists, in addition to the Central

Government,of the social security institutions,decentralizedagencies and
municipalities. The social security institutions- whose operationsare
dominated by the Social Security Institute (IPS) - have shown persistent
surplusesin spite of growing capital expenditures. IPS's main source of
revenue is the contributionsof insured workers, which amount to 26% of the
wage bill. The decentralizedagencies are mostly service institutionswhich
rely largely on Central Government transfersfor higher education as well as
other social and technologicalservices. These transfersin 1979 covered
about half of the total expendituresof the decentralizedagencies and
amounted to about 3% of Central Administrationrevenues. Operationsof
the municipalities,which in 1979 accounted for about 3% of the General
Government,have also tended to maintain a slow growth in current expenditures
(2.2% per year from 1976 to 1979), while increasingrevenuesmore rapidly (9.3%
per year from 1976 to 1979); transfers from the Central Administrationare
negligible.

32. The public enterprisescomplete the public sector in Paraguay.

Their revenues (excludingtransfers)in 1979 amounted to 30% of the total for
the consolidatedpublic sector, and their capital expendituresto 44%. The
most important in terms of revenues and expendituresare ANDE (electricpower),
ANTELCO (telecommunications) and LAP (airlines). The public enterpriseshave
been expanding their services rapidly - particularlyANDE, ANTELCO, and
CORPOSANA (water)- but from small bases, so that coverage levels are still
low. Savings of the public enterpriseshave shown a tendency to increase in
absolute terms, although as a share of GDP they have dropped from 1.7% in 1976
to 1.4% in 1979. Nevertheless,in 1979 internal savings financed 65% of their
combined investments(2.2% of GDP), the balance being financed from external
sources. The good financial performancewas the result of the general policy,
with a few exceptionslike the railroad company, of maintaininguser charges
at sufficientlevels to cover costs. In fact, some of the tariffs are high
(e.g. electricity)compared to internationallevels, and expansion is con-
strainedby the lower income levels and the higher costs of reaching the
populationwithout services. With the recent accelerationin inflation,
however, tariffs have fallen in real terms in some areas such as transport
(port charges)and water services. Policieswithin the public enterprises
have emphasizedrestrictingexpenditures,a posture which, particularlywith
regard to salaries,has affected the capacity to improve and expand services.

33. Thus, the accelerationof growth brought an improvementin the

financialperformanceof the public sector. Revenues responded- at least
until 1979 - to GDP growth, while the Government'srestrictivepolicies
succeeded in checking the growth of expenditures. The net effect of Central
Governmentoperationsover the 1977-79 period was contractionary,consistent
with the efforts to dampen inflationarypressures. Another result of this
policy, however, has been to constrain the ability of public sector agencies
to expand the provision of services. Even though expenditureshave been
increasing,the demand for skilled personnel from the hydroelectricprojects
and the booming private sector has produced a discontinuousjump in wage
differentials. Salaries for professionalsat Itaipu and in the private sector
 - 13 -

are two to three times those in the public sector, so that the public sector
not only has been unable to attract new talent, but has lost part of the
limited talent it had available.Thus, the agencies have been unable to carry
carry out even the modest investmentlevels contemplatedin the budget (Table 5).

34. The Government'simproved financial position and, more importantly,

the greater availabilityof resources from growth, open up opportunities
for the public sector to increase its support to productiveactivities
and to ensure a wider distributionof the benefits of growth, consistentwith
the Government'sstated developmentobjectives.

35. As the AID survey shows, the incomes of the majority of farmers
are still below the poverty level. At the same time the country has abundant
fertile land which can be incorporatedto production. The colonization
process has shown that these farmers are motivated and are able to respond
to opportunities. Programs designed to ease the restrictionsthey face in the
form of lack of capital, technology,infrastructureand servicesare not only
productiveinvestmentsper se but also serve the Government'sdevelopment
objectivesby raising the farmers' standard of living, improving their produc-
tive capacityand ensuring their participationin economicprogress. Govern-
ment efforts to support the colonizationprocess have been increasing but,
because of the small bases from which they started, coupledwith the quantum
jump in requirements,they fall short of what could be achieved.

36. The institutionsin charge of providing these services,MAG, IBR,

the National DevelopmentBank (BNF), the Ministry of Public Works (MOPC),
and SNF, face financial,technical and personnel constraints. Although
the agriculturalsector'sdevelopment is based on private sector activity,
the Governmenthas played a key supportingrole through the provision of
infrastructure,credit, land, research and extension services. MAG is in
charge of planningand coordinatingpublic sector actions in support of the
agriculturalsector. This coordinatingrole needs to be strengthenedas the
servicesprovided by the various agencies are still insufficient,dispersed
and uncoordinated,with instanceswhere duplicationof activitiesoccur. For
example,MAG, IBR and BNF are all engaged in provision of extension services,
but their actions do not follow an integral strategyas to division of tasks
and methods to use for delivering services to farmers. Likewise there does not
exist a long term plan to establishresearch prioritiesnor the means to deliver
the results of research to a significantnumber of small farmers. MAG's capacity
to prepare, execute and monitor projects is weak and it had to rely on external
support to carry out this task. In 1978, MAG spent the equivalentof only
US$1.13 per rural inhabitantin services (research,extensionand training)to
farmers, and its extension servicesreached only about 12% of eligible rural
families. Given the importanceof the agriculturalsector in the economyand
its role regarding rural living conditions,MAG's capacityto plan and execute
rural developmentprojects and to expand coverageof its servicesshould be
strengthened. Resources devoted to MAG have been increasing,but are still
insufficientto meet the needs of a large part of low income farmers. Increases
in these expenditureswould be justified not only by equity reasons, but would
constitutesolid economic investments. In this regard, budget increases
 Table 5: BUDGETED AND ACTUAL RESOURCES AND EXPENDITURE OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENTZY1977-79

(millions of current ¢)

1977 1978 1979

Budget(l) Actual(2) (2)/(1)% Budget(l) Actual(2) (2)/(1)% Budget(l) Actual(2) /(1

Revenues

Current revenues 21,709.8 26,378.7 121.5 26,313.6 34,340.6 130.5 33,541.3 43,661.5 130.2

of which: tax revenues 17,632.2 22,278.6 126.4 21,361.6 28,935.5 135.5 27,416.2 37,282.9 136.0

capital revenues 8,043.4 4,229.2 52.5 9,871.7 8,550.7 86.6 9,222.3 5,074.8 55.0

Expenditures

Current 17,474.4 19,623.2 122.3 20,171.4 22,759.4 112.8 25,631.3 28,349.2 110.6

of which: salaries 8,716.3 8,516.9 97.7 10,322.9 10,102.4 97.9 12,496.9 12,178.6 97.5

Capital 12,323.5 8,074.9 66.0 16,445.3 12,972.1 78.9 17,222.2 14,342.8 83.2

of which: Fixed Investment 11,245.7 6,973.4 62.0 15,624.7 12,136.7 77.7 15,866.8 12,973.3 81.8

/1 Figures differ from Table 5.7 of Statistical Appendix because of different clasification concepts.

Source: Ministerio de Hacienda, Informe Financiero 1977, 1978 and 1979 Asuncion, Paraguay
 - 15 -

should seek to strike a balance among: (a) expansion in the coverage of

services; (b) the need to make salaries competitive; and (c) increases in the
efficiency and quality of services provided. The National Projects Office
(ONP) has under consideration an institutional improvement study for MAG; this
study provides an opportunity to define the focus of MAG's role in support of
the sector and to identify the financial requirements needed to meet its
objectives.

37. IBR's role in the colonization process has been constrained by weak
administrative and planning capacity and by lack of sufficient resources.
Its financial resources (in the range of US$2 to 3 million annually) have
been insufficient to organize an institution capable of giving direction and
effective support to the colonization process. They have not permitted the
institution to modernize its administrative and planning procedures (for example,
IBR does not have equipment to mechanize the processing of data) and to hire
sufficiently motivated personnel, given the low salaries being paid. The result
is that managers do not have accurate data on the institution's assets and
financial availabilities to program future activities. IBR has yet to set out
a program of land colonization identifying its resources (land, organizational
and executing capacity), potential beneficiaries, and targets to be achieved
over time. Meanwhile, it has spread itself thinly over a variety of activities
such as titling, provision of infrastructure, credit, extension, and marketing
services. Its effective role, consequently, has been limited largely to the
provision of land titles to settlers already on the land. Moreover, this
process has been slow: from 1975 to 1979 IBR issued 13,000 titles and had
58,000 others in process at the end of 1979 1/. Beneficiaries report that
titling procedures are extremely complicated (taking up to 70 steps), that
there are no clear steps and processing terms, and that there is lack of land
payment and ownership records. Settlers consequently face an administrative
constraint in the development of their activities, as access to credit and other
services is contingent upon having a land title.

38. The colonists require more effective support, and the colonization
process requires improved planning. Colonists have often settled on unsuitable
soils, causing erosion and loss of fertility. It is feared that serious
long-term problems could develop, including sedimentation of the big hydro-
electric dams, if present practices are continued. In addition, there is
a danger that small farmers may increasingly be left out of the process.
Improved infrastructure and growing knowledge of the area's agricultural
potential are causing land prices to rise and making it more difficult for
emigrants from minifundia areas to acquire land. Fiscal lands managed by
IBR are reportedly being exhausted, and the institution does not have the
resources to buy additional land. Thus a re-evaluation of its role is
warranted, including the legislation under which it functions; for instance,
the current Agrarian Reform Law of 1962 defines latifundia, and thus the only
land subject to expropriation, as units of more than 20,000 ha in the Chaco

1/ Paraguay: Comision de Trabajo "El Esfuerzo Nacional y las Necesidades de

Financiamiento Externo," Reunion CEPCIES, Asuncion, April 1980 pp. 35.
 - 16 -

and 10,000 ha in Eastern Paraguay. There are probably instances where smaller
undeveloped estates could be beneficiallyused for the settlementof small
farmers. If the colonizationprocess is to fulfill its potential role in
attending the needs of small holders and improving resource utilization,IBR
or an equivalentinstitutionwill have to be providedwith the necessary
resources (currentlyonly about 15% of IBR's operating budget is provided by
the Governmentand the rest is covered by land sales) not only for the provi-
sion of support services but also for the purchase of land to settle colonists.
Otherwise,participationof small holders in the developmentof the new lands
will be increasinglyconstrained,and a situation of dualism between large,
high technologycommercialfarming and small holders could develop.

39. BNF is the main source of credit for small farmers but it currently
reaches a small proportionof potential beneficiaries. In 1979, only 17,000
families received credit, representingless than 10% of producingunits; its
credits to the agriculturalsector have stagnated in real terms since 1978.
BNF's program for 1981-84 contemplatesa slow increase in the number of
agriculturalcredit beneficiaryfamilies (2.7% annual growth). Efforts have
been made to improve BNF's management and financial position. In particular,
efforts are being made to solve the financial problemswhich resulted from
past unsuccessfulpromotion programs (such as the wheat program in the early
1970's),but these problems are proving more difficult than expected. Given
that BNF aims at serving small and dispersedagriculturalproducers,it will
continue to require support from the Government.

40. Investmentsin transport infrastructurehave representeda high

average proportion (25%) of total public sector investment,with road
constructiongrowing at an annual rate of 5.4% from 1971 to 1978. Paved roads,
however, do not exceed 1,500 km, and 80% of main roads are still dirt and
subject to traffic interruption. Provision of feeder roads has been given
less priority, and the planningmechanism to attend this need is not yet
operative. Greater investmentefforts in feeder roads could directly benefit
the smaller farmers. MOPTC is now in the process of upgrading its institu-
tional capacity to attend these more diversifieddemands for infrastructure.

41. With the forthcomingavailabilityof electricity,a further oppor-

tunity to improve the living conditionsof campesinosopens up. However, the
investmentsin transmissionand distributionsystems required to increase
access to electricityfor Paraguayansin general (per-capitaconsumptionof
electricitywas 200 kwh in 1980) are substantial. Estimates of required
investmentsto keep expansion only to expected "normal"growth of demand
(11.3% annual growth) reach about US$60 million a year, an amount equivalent
to about 1/3 of total public sector investmentin 1979. At present, no
considerationis being given to a program of rural electrification. As
populationcontinues to deconcentratefrom the Central Region, spurred by the
colonizationprocess, the need to provide urban infrastructureto towns and
cities outside Asuncion, which give services to the rural population,will
also become imperative.

42. In spite of the modest levels of recent years and the lack of
a systematicprogram respondingto a set of priorities,public sector invest-
ments have played a key role in national development. These investmentshave
 - 17 -

fluctuatedfrom year to year because of the bulky nature of some projects, and
their level has remained at about 5% of GDP between 1975 and 1979. The docu-
ment prepared by the STP for CEPCIES in 1980 envisagedan increasein public
sector investmentto 7.7% of GDP by 1983. Achievementof this target, however,
will require improvementsin the planning and execution capacityof the public
sector agencies and an investmentprogram that sets prioritiesreflecting
developmentobjectives. Progress in this direction is being made through ONP
and the recently establishedFinancial ProgrammingDivision (DPF). An organic
process, through which a well structuredinvestmentprogram respondingto the
developmentneeds and to the financialpossibilitiesof the public sector,
should be coordinatedwith STP. The problem is not only the availabilityof
financial resources to increase investmentlevels; in fact, the planning,
organizationalcapacityand the unavailabilityof human resourcesare probably
the major obstacles. Nevertheless,a permanent scarcityof financial resources
at the level of the agencies will not be conducive to fostering the needed
institutionaldevelopment.

43. Improving the capacity of the public sector agencies to carry out
larger investmentsand expand serviceswill require greater resourcemobiliza-
tion efforts. The current surplusesachieved in recent years by the Central
Governmentwould be insufficientto expand substantiallythe investmenteffort
and to improve the operationalcapacity of the public sector agencies. At the
same time, the buoyancy that the tax system showed during 1976-1978 seems to
have been reversed in 1978-1981. The sharp increase in revenues in 1976-78
was due to the high level of economic activity, improvedadministrative
procedures,better enforcementand the conversionof some taxes from specific
to an ad valorem basis. The basic structure of the tax system, however, has
remainedunchanged.The tax system is an inorganic collectionof laws and
regulations,some dating 50 years back, which have accumulatedalong the years
as new ad hoc measures were adopted in response to the periodicalfinancial
crises of the public sector. The system has become unduly complicated,1/ is
difficult to evaluatein terms of its effects on the economy and in terms of
its response to income variations, and has become difficult to administer.

44. A number of taxes are specified in absolute terms, and because

of the accelerationof inflation have been losing their real revenue potential.
An example is the tax on gasoline,which in 1962 was equivalentto 43% of the
price and by 1979 had fallen below 10%. Many taxes are earmarked,and, along
the years, the relationshipbetween collectionsand the objectivesto be
served has been lost. Enforcementof some taxes is difficult; for example
IMF calculationsshow that the tax on private vehicleswhich in 1979 produced
65 million ¢, according to the tax rate and the number of vehicles, should
have produced 240 million. The system maintains the outmoded stamp tax which
increases the cost of transactionsand is difficult to evaluate in terms of
its effects on the economy or its future evolution,and the taxes on banking

1/ As an example,a consumer good like beer is subject to some 20 differ-

ent taxes, both specific and ad valorem, in response to 12 different laws,
with portionsof the revenues earmarked for 5 different institutions.
 - 18 -

transactions,which create distortionsin the financial system. The same

applies to the structure of taxes on internationaltrade and to the tax on
foreign exchange transactions. The multiplicityof taxes on imports encourages
the recourse of importers to irregularchannels. Simplifying the tax system
by integratingthe many different taxes would facilitateadministrationand
probablywould allow a lowering of the overall rates and, at the same time,
improve revenue collectionand reduce costs to taxpayers.

45. Measures to improve the tax system have been introduced. Isolated
measures are unlikely to produce acceptable results,however, and the new
modificationsand additions tend to complicate the system even further. An
example of the difficultiesthat a partial approach faces was the recent
proposal for creatingan income tax for self-employedprofessionals. Opposi-
tion was successfulat pointing to weaknessesof the system that needed to be
solved before creatinga new tax category, and also its discriminatorycharac-
ter, since it left out high-incomeemployed professionals.

46. That there is room for increasingrevenues and improving the system's
equity, while at the same time avoiding excessive burdens on the population,
is illustratedby the fact that in Paraguay there are no personal income
taxes. The accelerationof growth and the influx of resources from the hydro-
electric projectshas produced unexpectedand discontinousincreases in the
incomes of selected groups. For instance a professionalworking at one of the
hydroelectricprojectsmaking some US$60,000 a year--not an uncommon case--does
not have his income directly taxed in'spite of his high relative position in
the country's income distribution. There seems to exist ample room to generate
revenues by creating some form of income tax at sufficientlymoderate rates
so as not to discourageprivate sector activity or lower incentivesto the
country's professionals.

47. Efforts should be made to create a tax system that overcomes

the elements of regressivity,complexity,inefficiencyand inadequacyto
generate revenues of the present system. The favorable financial position
of the public sector providesan opportunity to overhaul the tax system, since
even a temporary fall of revenuesfrom disturbanceson the system could be
covered by the accumulatedpast surpluses. The advisabilityof taking action
in this sphere has been underscoredby the 1980 fiscal results and projections
for 1981. Based on results for the period January-June1981, FDP's projections
suggest a further stagnationof Central Governmentrevenues in real terms,
which, coupled with growing expenditures,will result in a sharp decline in
the current account surplus. The objective should be to make the system a
rational and consistentinstrumentfor achieving the Government'sdevelopment
objectives. The necessity for a comprehensivereform of the tax system arises
not only from the need to increase the resourcesof the Government, but also
from the need to modernize the system as such with at least the following
objectives:

(a) simplificationof the system to reduce costs for both collectorsand

taxpayers;

(b) increased progressivenessin function of the Government'sequity

objectives;
 - 19 -

(c) reduced distortion in the allocation of resources; and

(d) increased flexibility to make the system more responsive to economic

conditions and the financial requirements of the Government.

Monetary Policy

47. Since the high inflation rates of the 1950's and early 1960's, which
were brought under control through successive stabilization programs, the
authorities have followed cautious monetary policies resulting in a stable
price environment. The inflationary upsurge following international develop-
ments in 1973-74 was quickly controlled, and the average annual rate of
inflation decelerated to 7% in 1975 and 5% in 1976 from 25% in 1974.

49. The high rates of growth of the economy since 1976 have been
accompanied by increasing availability of financial resources originating
mainly from the influx of foreign exchange related to Itaipu construction and
to private investments (table 6). The resulting high level of aggregate
demand has exerted pressures on the price level, and the rate of change in the
consumer price index increased to 9.6% in 1977, 10.6% in 1978 and 28.2% in
1979. The unusually high rate of 1979, which reflected in part repressed
inflationary pressures, was also the result of factors affecting the supply
side, as the availability of food (50% weight in the consumer price index) was
affected by bad weather, some degree of substitution of domestic consumption
crops by cash crops for export, and beef price increases due to high demand
from Brazil for live cattle. External factors, such as the oil price increase
in 1979 and the high rates of inflation in Brazil and Argentina, added to
pressures on prices both through higher costs of imports and through heavy
tourist expenditures.

50. Results for 1980 showed a sharp decline in the rate of change in the
CPI, which in the 12 months ran at 8.8% vs. 35.7% for the 12 months of 1979.
Although the measures adopted by the authorities (para 51) contributed to the
reversal of inflationary expectations, the main factors behind the 1980 slowdown
appear to have been the stabilization of food prices related to favorable
climatic conditions, lower prices of imports from Brazil and Argentina, lower
demand for beef from Brazil and lower tourist influx from Argentina. 1/ The
accumulated change in the CPI for the period January-August 1981 was 9%. This
lower rate was the result of an accentuation of tendencies already evident in
1980: lower prices for imported goods from Argentina and Brazil, lower demand
from tourists from those countries, lower demand from Itaipu and delays in
Yacyreta construction and other external factors such as the high interest
rates in the international money markets. In spite of this slowdown it is
unlikely that inflation will return to the pre-1978 levels, given the expected

1/ The sharp fluctuations in the consumer price index (CPI) are also related
to its composition, which gives excessive weight to food and includes
items that have become obsolete in the consumption basket. The CPI is
currently being revised on the basis of a market basket intended to
reflect the consumption of a wider segment of the population and a more
balanced composition.
 Table 6: SOURCES OF CHANGES IN MONEY SUPPLY, 1976-80

(millions of ¢)

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

¢ % ¢ % ¢ % ¢ % it X

Assets 42,755 100 53,513 100 71.347 100 92,778 100 125,102 100

Net International Reserves 20,225 47.3 33,939 63.4 55,205 77.4 76,434 82.4 96,824 77.4

Net Credit to Public Sector 1,793 4.2 -3,455 -6.5 -8,974 -12.6 -16.739 -18.0 -15,543 -12.4

Credit to Private Sector 36,049 84.3 44,221 82.6 58,244 81.6 73,1.18 78.8 07,044 78.3

Other Accounts (Net) -15,312 -35.8 -21,192 -39.6 -33,128 -46.4 40,035 -43.2 -54,123 -43.3

Liabilities 42,755 100 53.513 100 71,347 100 92,778 100 125,102 100

Money 20,694 48.4 26,720 49.9 37,183 52.1 45,544 49.1 58,002 46.4

Quasi-money 22,061 51,6 26,793 50.1 34,164 47.9 47,234 50.9 67,100 53.6
Of which:
Local Currency (18,252) (43.9) (22,313) (41.7) (28,689) 40.2 (35,144) 37.9 (46,351) 37.1

Foreign Currency (3,809) (8.9) (4,480) (8.4) (5,475) 7.7 (12,090) 13.0 (20,749) (16.6)

Source: Table 6.4, Statistical Appendix

 - 21 -

increases in international prices and the economy's greater integration with

the rest of the world. The de facto openness of the economy, however, should
prevent a persistently higher domestic than international inflation rate, since
imports fill the supply gap and there are no foreign exchange restrictions.

51. The regulations under which the financial system functioned appeared
satisfactory in a situation of price stability, but as the inflation rate
accelerated, some of those regulations began to create or accentuate distor-
tions. The 6 to 8% interest rate ceiling on bank saving deposits meant
increasingly negative returns causing depositors to seek alternatives. Thus,
saving and term deposits declined from 55% of total commercial bank liabilities
in 1976 to 30% by the end of 1979. Among the alternative instruments to which
the public shifted were deposits in foreign currency, which increased from
3.8 million Guaranies at the end of 1976 to 12.1 million in 1979, equivalent
to 12% and 19% respectively of private sector deposits in the banking system.
These deposits are not subject to limits on interest rates and are subject to
reserve requirements of only 15% as against 42% for deposits in domestic
currency. Bankers acceptances also grew in importance as a means of avoiding
interest rate regulations.

52. Growth of nonbank financial intermediaries was also encouraged.

Chief among them were the finance companies and saving and loan associations,
whose share of total credit of the financial system to the private sector
increased from 8.7% at the end of 1976 to 16.3% at the end of 1979. The
nonbank intermediaries were allowed to pay and charge higher interest rates
than banks and were not subject to reserve requirements. Other regulations
that put commercial banks at a disadvantage were mandatory sectoral portfolio
allocations 1/ and the stamp tax, which affects banking operations and can
raise the cost of borrowing by up to 6%, depending on the term of the loan.
As a result, banks lost ground to other financial intermediaries, over which
the monetary authority had little control, and whose expansion owed more to
administrative advantage than to a real competitive edge.

53. The authorities, concerned about price developments and its effects
on the functioning of the financial system, adopted several measures in late
1979 and early 1980 to strengthen the system and to improve its functioning:

- Interest rates that banks are allowed to pay for saving and
term deposits were raised from 6-8% to 11%, and the commissions that
banks charge on loans (usury laws set a maximum 12% rate of interest)
were raised by 1.5-2%;

- The Central Bank increased the proportion of loans to productive

activities that commercial banks can rediscount from 20% to 30%;

- Marginal reserve requirements on public sector deposits were

raised to 100%;

1/ Commercial banks are required to allocate 50% of their portfolios to

productive activities in agriculture, industry and exports at preferential
interest rates.
 - 22 -

The amount of bankers acceptances that banks can intermediatewas

progressivelyreduced from the equivalentof 100% to 10% of their
capital;

A 5% reserve requirementon deposits in savings and loan associations

and finance companies was introduced;and

Minimum capital requirementswere raised for commercialbanks

(0600 million), finance companies and saving and loan associations
(0200 million) and exchange houses (060 million).

54. These measures contributed to a slight decelerationin the expansion

of money and credit to the private sector during 1979 and 1980. Time and
savings deposits recuperatedtheir rate of growth in 1980, while deposits
in nonbank financial intermediariesslowed down. The control capacityof the
Central Bank over the financial system was strengthened.

55. The Central Bank has continued to restrict credit to the public and
private sectors. Central Bank net credit to the public sector has been
negative since the end of 1977, as public sector deposits increased rapidly
while credit stagnated;only in 1980 did public sector deposits start to
decline again. Net Central Bank credit to the banking sector has been con-
tinuallydeclining. In spite of credit increasingbetween 1979 and 1980
(from US$6 million in 1977 to US$55 million in 1980), commercial banks
reservesat the Central Bank increased by even larger amounts (from
US$144 million in 1977 to US$280 million in 1980). During 1979 and 1980
commercialbanks increasedcredit to the private sector at a slower pace than
in 1977 and 1978 as a result of the measures adopted by the Central Bank, and
their share in the total operationsof the financial system reversed its
declining trend in responseto the adjustmentsin interest rates, the reserve
requirementsimposed on nonbank financial intermediariesand the increased
access to Central Bank rediscountsfor commercialbanks productiveportfolio.

56. Overall results for 1979-80 suggest that the measures adopted by the
authoritiesare contributingto the attainmentof their objectives. Still the
performanceof the financialsystem in channelingfinancial resources to
productive investmentscould be improved. Interest rates are still subject to
limits that apply differentiallyto different financial instrumentsand
institutions,but which in practice are circumventedthrough complex mechanisms
(advance interestpayments, service charges, etc.) or serve as an incentive
for recourse to alternatives(e.g. operationsin foreign currency). Operations
with banks are also subject to the stamp tax that further increases costs of
financial intermediation. A freer and more flexible interest rate system
would contributeto a better allocationof financial resources and to more
competitionamong banks and other financial intermediaries. This becomes
particularlyimportant in a situationwhere price stabilityhas become less
certain than in the past. Of particularimportanceis the need to further a
more competitivesituationamong different financial institutionsand, in
the longer term, to lower the costs of financial intermediation. The current
higher reserve requirementson deposits in commercialbanks in an inflationary
situation gives advantage to other financial institutions,and, in addition,
it prevents payment of positive real interest rates to savers, given the
 - 23 -

ceilings on loan rates. 1/ Flight of funds from commercial banks towards

financieras, saving and loan associations or deposits in foreign currency does
not contribute to a better allocation of resources, because the result is
increased funds for non-priority activities and for financial assets of a
speculative character. Improving the functioning of the financial system is
particularly important in the Paraguayan economy, because there are few
alternative mechanisms to transfer funds from savers to investors, given the
absence of an active long-term bond market and the lack of success and poor
prospects of stock market operations. Paraguayan firms are unlikely to resort
soon to stock operations as a source of funds because of the desire to avoid
dillution of ownership and the requirements for financial disclosure.

Balance of Payments

57. Official data on the balance of payments show a current account

deficit increasing from 6.3% of GDP in 1976 to 10.4% in 1979. Recorded
imports have experienced a 33.8% average annual nominal increase from 1976 to
1979, resulting from increases in volume (20%) and prices (11.6%). The
acceleration of economic growth has brought rapid expansion of non-food
consumer goods and capital goods imports. Imports of fuels have grown at
slower rates in real terms, and actually fell in volume terms in 1979 and 1980
because of the sharp increases in price which were passed on to the consumer.

58. Proceeds from reported exports grew at 18.8% from 1976 to 1979 but
were more erratic, as prices of the main export commodities, cotton and
soybeans, have fluctuated in the international market, and production was
affected by the vagaries of the weather. The two traditional exports, beef
and wood, were also affected by external market conditions. The EEC market
was closed to beef exports in 1974, and, although it reopened later, the
meat-processing industry has not been able to recuperate. Wood exports were
affected by the closure of the Argentine market in 1975, but production
recuperated later owing to strong domestic demand, and since 1977, so have
exports. In 1979 cotton and soybeans accounted for 58% of registered exports,
improving further their 38% share of 1976; the share of wood and beef declined
from about 50% in the early 1970's to some 18% in 1979.

59. The growing external gap has been financed in part by inflows of
private capital and rapidly growing public borrowing. The bulk of external
financing, however, came from the foreign exchange inflows related to Itaipu
expenditures on Paraguayan goods and services, which in the official balance
of payments are shown as capital inflows. The overall result has been favor-
able, with Central Bank reserves increasing from US$157 million in 1976 to
US$776 in 1980. Paraguay thus shows a comfortable external position, with
reserves covering about 10 months of imports of goods and services as offi-
cially reported.

60. It should be noted that official trade data considerably underesti-

mate true flows. Estimates based on partner country data result in merchandise
exports being higher than official estimates by 28% in 1976 and by 70% in
1979, and imports by 33% in 1976 and 50% in 1979. These figures suggest that

1/ As noted above, banks are able to avoid loan rate ceilings by charging
commissions and other fees. A scheme has been introduced recently
enabling banks to pay "bonuses" to term depositors.
 - 24 -

both exports and imports were growing faster than official estimatesand
resulted in a larger resourcegap. 1/

Table No. 7: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1975-80 a/

(millionsof US$)

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980*

Exports of Goods NFS 210.0 212.1 332.5 345.7 400.9 432.7

Imports of Goods NFS 300.3 306.4 451.5 566.1 746.5 891.8
Resource Balance -90.3 -94.2 -119.0 -220.4 -345.6 -459.1

Net Factor Payments -13.3 -15.1 -15.6 -24.1 -15.5 -5.7

Net Transfers 14.0 4.2 1.2 5.8 7.4 4.5

Current Account Balance -89.6 -105.2 -133.4 -238.7 -353.7 -460.3

Direct Investment 14.2 11.4 17.0 21.9 51.9 29.8

Net Private Long-termCapital 16.3 5.6 15.0 26.3 52.4 103.7

Net Capital for Binational

Entities 45.6 76.7 149.0 222.1 296.3 395.1

Net Public Long-term Capital 44.4 58.4 106.9 108.6 58.6 29.3

Gross Disbursements 57.3 69.9 122.7 128.1 84.4

Amortization 12.7 11.5 15.8 19.5 25.8

Short-termCapital Flows
Errors & Omissions -1.5 3.2 -45.6 28.5 63.0

Changes in Reserves
(-increase) -29.4 -50.1 -108.9 -168.7 -168.5 -167.0

a/ Official Data.

* Estimates

1/ The evaluationof trade data is further complicatedby the frequentuse

of reference prices rather than actual transactionsprices in the official
estimatesof real changes,and by the fact that a substantialproportion
of imports is intended for re-export. Unofficialestimatesmade by the
Central Bank on the basis of transactionsin foreign currencyat the
exchangehouses show even larger discrepancies(Annex 1, Table 2).
These figures appear exaggerated,however, because, for example, the
implied export level is equivalentto almost the total gross value of
productionof the agriculturalsector. Either these data grossly over-
estimate exports, or the National Accounts underestimatethe level of
production. On the other hand, the figures cannot be totally dismissed,
because the operationsthrough the exchange houses increased from 34% of
total transactionsin foreign currency in 1975 to 68% in 1979.
 - 25 -

61. Although unrecorded trade flows have long existed in Paraguay, owing
to the large open frontiers and administrative weaknesses in the control
system, the apparent magnitude and tendency of current flows are unprecedented.
Efforts should be made to clarify their size and composition and the factors
which give rise to them. The present lack of knowledge is a serious obstacle
to adequate macroeconomic policy making, in particular the need to assess
accurately the evolution of exports and to identify factors originating in
foreign exchange price relations that may be affecting domestic agricultural
and industrial producers. They also represent a significant evasion of taxes
and consequent loss of fiscal revenues.

62. Several causes seem to exist for the increasing recourse to

irregular channels for external transactions. Even though importers would
appear to have an incentive to transact through the official market, where the
nominal exchange rate is 126 e to the dollar, in fact, with the number of
taxes and commissions applied, the effective exchange rate is significantly
less attractive. IMF calculations show that the spread between buying and
selling foreign exchange in the official market can range from 12% for imports
of capital goods under Investment Incentive Law 550 for necessary industries
(the most favored) to 93% for imports of construction materials. The importer
faces high financial costs and complicated import procedures, which include
advanced import deposits and payment of up to 16 different import taxes 1/.
The official import structure has not been modified, but alternative channels
have been opened like the Regional Trade Regime (Despacho Aduanero Regional)
for imports from neighboring countries, which are subject to a single uniform
15% tax paid through the exchange houses. These operations, because of lack
of information, are not included in the official trade figures.

63. Normally, exports are channeled through the official exchange

market and are subject to export and exchange taxes. The exporter is
required to surrender his export proceeds at the official exchange rate of
0126, minus 1.5% exchange tax and export taxes ranging from 1.5% to 7.5%, for
agricultural products. This results in a spread of 10% to 17% compared to
exports through irregular channels and exchange in the free market at 135 ¢ to
the dollar. An additional source of discrepancy in export data is official
export undervaluation, which the Central Bank has been introducing to offset
the increase in domestic production costs, while external prices have tended
to stagnate and the exchange rate has remained fixed. To provide some relief
to producers, the aforos, or reference prices that serve as the basis for
computing the amount of foreign exchange that the exporter has to surrender
have been kept below actual prices, so that the exporter is left with part of
the foreign exchange from his sales to sell in the free market.

64. While the objective of this policy is understandable, a more direct

and efficient way from an economic point of view would be to eliminate the
export taxes and unify the exchange market. 2/ With the recent acceleration

1/ As an example, the importation of a car is subject to 16 different taxes

and 9 different payments for administrative services and commissions,
representing payments equivalent of up to 100% of the FOB value.

2/ The Government has recently made a partial move in this direction by

allowing a greater proportion of imports, including non-regional imports,
to enter under the special provisions of the Regional Trade Regime.
 - 26 -

of domestic inflation,which has begun to exceed internationalinflation,

some real appreciationof the Guarani is taking place, and thus the competitive
position of domestic producers,both in agricultureand industry, is beginning
to be affected. Furthermore,one effect of the dual exchange system is that
domestic producers of exports are put at a disadvantageby the requirementto
sell the proceeds of their exports in the official exchangemarket. This
results in an effectiveexchange rate below the nominal official rate (para 63).
Although a large share of exports goes through irregular channelsand thus
does not pay export taxes, and proceeds are exchanged at the higher free rate,
costs must exist in using these channels. The result is that the domestic
producer bears an unwarrantedcost imposed by the system. The dual exchange
system and the costs it implies (administrativecontrols)are probably the
most important factors contributingto the increasingrecourse to irregular
channels by exporters and importers. This situation implies that a growing
share of operationsin foreign exchange are taking place outside of the formal
banking system, and the Central Bank's capacity to follow tendenciesin
monetary flows and to take correctiveaction is correspondinglydiminished.

65. In addition to the desirabilityof having accurate data on inter-

national trade for policy purposes, import tax evasion is an important
issue, because taxes on internationaltrade are the single main source of
revenues for the Central Government. In 1979, revenues from taxes on inter-
national trade represented35% of total tax revenues, 72% of which were taxes
on imports. The complexityof the tax system on imports -- it consistsof
three basic taxes (customsduties, additionalduties and complementaryduties)
and a series of taxes and charges, some of them specific and others ad valorem,
and many exceptions-- makes it difficult to compute the potential incidence.
Rates apparentlyvary from some 20% for inputs used in Paraguayan industry
(the most favored items) to over 100% for some consumer goods. Although goods
imported through the officialmarket would be subject to an average tax rate
of about 70%, the actual tax collected for 1979 was equivalentto some 20% of
the FOB value of merchandise imports as officiallyreported. Since goods
currently entering through irregular channelsare thought to be mainly consumer
goods, which carry the higher tax rates, the amount of foregone revenuesfrom
these imports is probably proportionatelylarger than the estimated50% of
non-registeredimports.
 - 27 -

II. GROWTH PROSPECTS

A. Outlook

(i) Production and Investment

66. Projections of the Paraguayan economy are made difficult by the

weakness of the underlying data and the major structural changes occurring.
Nevertheless, it is reasonable to expect growth to continue at high rates
based on expansion of agricultural production and the economic activities
related to the hydroelectric projects. It should be noted, however, that the
evolution of the economy is highly dependent on external factors such as the
price of agricultural exports, the investment profile of the hydroelectric
projects and the economic developments in Paraguay s big neighbors: Brazil
and Argentina. Estimates of GDP growth for 1981, for instance, indicate a
slowdown in economic activity (GDP growth in the range of 8-9%) as a result
precisely of such factors as the large Argentine and Brazilian devaluations
and the lower Itaipu construction activity not compensated because of delays
in the Yacyreta construction schedule.

67. There is sufficient land suitable for agriculture to sustain area

expansion at a rate comparable to that of 1972-79 (average 9.3% a year) beyond
the end of the present decade. Concurrently, there still is a large population
in the Minifundia Zone and adjacent areas (para 8) which does not have suffi-
cient land. Thus, the colonization process, through which the population
is gaining access to the new land, will continue to play a vital role for
output expansion and, at the same time, for raising the incomes of one of the
poorer segments of the population. The extent to which the process benefits
smallholders will increasingly depend on government efforts to provide direct
and indirect support. The colonization process has been underway for a
considerable time and has been successful, as shown by the expansion of output
and the rising incomes of the participants, in spite of the restrictive
conditions under which it has been taking place.

68. Demand prospects seem favorable, as indicated by price projections for

the major export crops. Soybean prices are expected by 1985 to increase by 30%
in real terms over the 1980 price, and cotton by 21%. Prices for corn, coconut
oil, wood, and tobacco are expected to show similar improvements. The potential
for improvements in yields also exists, given that recent growth has been almost
entirely based on area expansion, and yields have remained at low levels (Table
7.9, Statistical Appendix). In addition, expansion of production in the tradi-
tional agricultural areas will be favored by recent price increases for
domestic consumption crops and by the efforts, supported by AID, to promote
production of higher value crops like fruits and vegetables. Given the sector's
more diversified structure (paragraph 17) and the various growth avenues
available, it can be expected that the 7.3% average growth rate of 1976-80
will be exceeded during the next five years (8% projected for 1981-86). Some
reduction of the wide historical fluctuations in growth rates (which ranged
from 3.7% in 1976 to 11.1% in 1979) can be expected, given the larger and
more diversified production base,the fact that the colonization process is
well underway, and assuming that no major disturbance such as the 1974-75
market closure for beef and wood occurs.
 - 28 -

69. Activity related to the hydroelectricprojects will continue to

stimulate growth of the industrial,constructionand services sectors.
Although expendituresrelated to Itaipu have already begun to taper off and
will decline sharply in 1982-83 when the civil works are completed,expendi-
tures in Yacyreta are expected to peak in 1983-85, thus roughly maintaining
the present levels of employmentand demand. After 1984, when the production
of electricitywill begin, flows from compensationpaymentswill begin to
build up gradually. The amount of compensationreceivedwill depend on the
share of electricity that Paraguay decides to use and the outcome of the
negotiationswith Brazil on the determinationof the unit value of electricity
sales, which, according to the Treaty, were to be based on a now obsolete
official relation of the dollar to gold. The range of variation for the
compensationpayments is large, from about US$60 million (1979 prices) if
paymentsare adjusted only for inflation,to about US$300 million if a dollar-
gold parity at present prices is established,or if compensationpayments are
linked to the project's cost escalation. (These amounts represent a range
from 1.8% to 8.8% of the 1979 GDP.) For illustrativepurposes, projections
in this report are based on the conservativeassumption that payments are to
be adjusted only for inflation,and that no major expansion in Paraguayan
consumptionof electricity,beyond normal vegetativegrowth, is to occur.

70. Given that inflows from Yacyreta and Itaipu will remain at a rela-
tively substantiallevel (averagingUS$350 million for 1981-85),growth of the
industrial,constructionand services sectors is projected to remain high,
averaging just under 10%, as compared to the 12% of 1976-80. It is assumed
that investmentwill remain at about the 1976-80 level but will fall as a
share of GDP, growing at considerablylower rates than during the last five
years as a result of the lower level of constructionactivity in the hydro-
electricprojects (Table 8). Thus, overall growth of the economy can average
about 9.3% per year for 1981-86,slightly lower than the 10% of the last five
years, because of the leveling off of inflows from the hydroelectricprojects,
the related reallocationof resources that will have to occur and the larger
base of the economy.

71. The evolutionof the economy from 1985 to 1990, when the hydro-
projects enter into production,will be influencedby factors that are to be
defined in the interim period: the level of compensationpayments from Itaipu
and the policies to be adopted regarding the use of electricity.The compensa-
tion payments will gradually build up and by 1990, depending on the outcome of
the negotiationswith Brazil, will be in the range of 2 to 5% of the GDP of
that year 1/. Thus, income from the projectswill continue to provide foreign
exchange to amelioratethe external sector constraint,facilitatingmaintenance
of high rates of growth. The availabilityof electricitymay affect also the
structureof the economy. Currently,studies are being made on the potential
uses of electricity--energyintensive industries,transport,replacementof
oil as fuel - with cooperationof IBRD; and more broadly,on Paraguay's
industrializationopportunitiesin general,with cooperationfrom the German
Government. Depending on the strategy to be adopted, the effects on employment
creationwill be different,since energy-intensiveindustriesare likely also
to be capital-intensive, while a broader industrializationprocess based on

1/ Assuming GDP growth will average 9% during 1985-90.

 Table 8: PROJECTEDNATIONAL ACCOUNTS,Y 1979-1980
(billionsof 1977 Guaranies)

Average Annual
2/ 3/ Share of GDP Growth Pate
1979-2 1980- 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1990 1979 1985 1990 1980-85 1985-90
Gross domestic product 323.4 359.1 393.8 430.0 471.6 516.0 563.7 865.9 100.0 100.0 lo0.0 9.4 9.0

Gains from terms of trade -13.5 -22.5 -16.0 -17.9 -19.7 -20.6 -20.8 -26.1 -4.2 -3.7 -3.0 - -

Gross domestic income 310.0 336.6 377.7 413.0 451.8 495.4 542.9 839.8 Q5.8 97.0 97.0 10.0 9.1

Importsof goods and NFS 100.3 100.4 107.2 117.2 126.7 140.5 150.9 229.2 31.0 26.8 26.5 8.5 8.7

Exports of goods and NFS 75.5 76.1 88.6 100.0 112.5 126.6 140.5 232.0 23.3 24.9 26.8 13.0 10.5

Exports (importcapacity) 62.0 53.6 72.5 82.1 93.2 106.0 120.1 205.9 lQ.2 21.3 23.8 17.5 11.4

Resource Gap 38.3 46.7 34.7 35.1 33.5 34.6 30.8 23.3 11.8 5.5 2.7 - -

Consumption 253.1 280.1 308.4 336.7 371.5 401.1 444.8 684.9 78.2 78.9 79.1 9.7 9.0

Investment 95.2 103.3 104.0 111.4 113.8 128.8 129.0 178.3 29.4 22.9 20.6 4.5 6.6

Domestic Savings 56.9 56.5 69.3 76.3 80.4 94.2 98.1 154.9 17.5 17.4 17.9 11.7 9.6

National Savings 64.7 57.8 70.3 77.2 80.9 96.1 100.8 63.7 20.0 17.9 18.9 11.8 10.2

1/ Adjustmentsfor unrecordedexports and imports are included in the table. Consequently,the resource gap is different
from that in the official figures. Official figures for GDP and investmentare used so that full effect of the
adjustmentis included in savingsand consumption. Itaipu and Yacyreta transactionsduring constructionwere not
explicitlyincluded, and thus are only partially reflected as in the official national accounts (Annex 1); revenues
during operation are treated as factor service income and thus affect national savings after 1984.

2/ Actual

3/ Estimated
 - 30 -

agroindustriesmight create more employment. Thus, even if energy-intensive

industriesare established,attention will have to be paid to employment-generat-
ing industries. Quantitativeprojectionsof these possibilitieswould require
the results of the above-mentionedstudies and more reliablemacro-economicdata.

(ii) Balance of Payments and External Capital Requirements

72. Sustainingthe high growth rates of recent years will be contingent

upon achieving the export expansionnecessary to pay for the accompanyinghigh
level of imports. Given the favorable prospectsfor the agriculturalsector
and Paraguay s small share of world markets, exports for the period 1981-85
might be expected to grow in real terms at an average rate of about 13%,
slightlylower than during 1974-79 (about 13.5% a year), when the base was
smaller.1/ Fulfillmentof this export potential,however, will depend on the
adoption of substantialmeasures in the field of exchangemanagement and trade
policies. It will be necessary to reverse the trends that have begun to appear:
mainly, a deteriorationin the competitivenessof domestic producers in agricul-
ture and probablyin industry. Necessary steps in this directionwould include
avoidance of an adverse exchange rate for exports through official channels by
eliminatingthe requirementthat exporters change their foreign exchange
proceeds at the official exchange rate, maintenanceof a realistic exchange
rate, and simplificationof the exchange system by eliminating the costs
imposed on exports by exchange and export taxes and administrativecomplexities.

73. The main export crops will continue to be cotton and soybeans,which
may be expected to continue expanding rapidly, though at rates lower than those
achieved recently. Thus, against the 23% growth rate for cotton and 34% for
soybeansof 1974-79,when the bases were much smaller,average real growth
rates of 15% and 14% are projected for 1981-85. On the other hand, traditional
exports like wood and livestock are expected to improve their performance. In
the case of wood, faster growth should result from the reopening of the
Argentine market and the penetrationof new markets in Europe and North
America with higher value added products such as laminatedwood. Livestock
exports are more difficult to project, as they have been taking place mainly
in the form of unregisteredsales on the hoof to Brazil, but they can be
expected to continue,either in that form or as processed beef, given that the
country has the stock base to sustain productionand that price prospects are
favorable. Further export diversificationpossibilitieswith favorable
prospects are tobacco,essential oils, fruits and vegetables.

74. Even though exports are projected to grow rapidly, these revenues
alone would not be sufficientto sustain the recent growth rate of imports,
which expanded about 14% a year in real terms (includingestimates of un-
registeredimports) from 1974 to 1979. A slowdown in the rate of import
growth, however,would be consistentwith the projected slower expansion of
investment.In addition, 21% of registeredimports and, by all accounts, most
of unregisteredimports are consumergoods, and thus slowing their expansion
would not affect growth possibilitiesfor the economy. Hence, imports of
goods are projected to grow during 1981-85 at an annual rate of about 9%, same

1/ As noted elsewhere,historicaltrade data are based on highly unreliable

official estimates. The use of reference prices in the calculationof
the deflator, for example, probably results in an overestimateof the
real growth rate of reported exports. For other reasons described in
Annex 1, however, the official data understate actual exports and,
perhaps, also their growth rate.
 1/
Table 9: PROJECTED BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, EXTERNAL CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS AND FINANCING- /
(in millions of current PTS$)

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1990

Exports of goods and NFS 616 633 931 1149 1419 1745 2140 5047

Imports of Goods and NFS 1035 1183 1377 1641 1930 2315 2689 5609

Resource balance -419 -550 -446 -492 -510 -570 -549 -562

Net Factor Payments -15.5 2 -3 -4 -10 10 24 173

Net transfers 7.3 14 16 17 19 21 23 37

Current account balance -427.2 -534 -433 -479 -502 -539 -503 -353

Private long-term capital 102.2 135 61.5 127 101 100 250 296

Capital Inflows from

Itaipu and Yacyreta 296.3 403 341 356 332 416 299 41

Public MLT loans (net) 58.6 164 67 41 119 123 137 153

Gross disbursements (84.4) (230) (141) (121) (188) (201) (219) 322

Amortization (25.8) (66) (74) (80) (69) (78) (82) 169

Other capital and errors

and omissions 138.6

Change in Reserves 168.5 -167 -36 -45 -50 -67 -64 -137

Reserve Level 606.6 774 810 855 905 971 1035 1548

As months of imports 7.0 7.9 7 6.2 5.6 5 4.6 3.3

* Actual
1/ Adjustments for unrecorded imports and exports (based on trading partner country data) are included.
Itaipu and Yacyreta appear as capital inflows during construction period and as factor payments
during production phase.
 - 32 -

as consumergoods but faster than food imports (5%). Imports of intermediate

goods, includingoil, are projected to grow at about 10% until 1985, which is
in line with historicalexperience;on the other hand, capital goods imports
are projected to expand at slower rates than in the past, in line with the
slower growth of investment;they will, nevertheless,continue to be a large
share (26% in 1985) of registeredimports.

75. The strong export performance,togetherwith the slower expected

growth of imports,are thus expected to reduce the resource gap from about
12% of GDP in 1979 to 5% in 1985. The current account deficit is expected
to remain in the range of US$400-530million until the late 1980's,when
compensationpayments for electricitybegin to accrue. Gross capital
requirementsto finance the current account deficit, as well as maintain an
appropriatelevel of reserves, are projected to be US$3.5 billion during the
period 1981-85. About $1.7 billion of this is expected to consist of Itaipu
and Yacyreta financing. Another US$0.9 billion may be expected in the form of
private sector borrowing. Thus, only about US$0.9 billion will be needed on
the public account, of which $383 million would be needed for amortization.

76. To generate these disbursements,commitmentsduring this period are

projected to be US$1.3 billion with US$746 million coming from multilateral
and bilateral sources and the rest from private financial sources. Disburse-
ments to the public sector are not expected to increase substantiallyover
historicallevels (US$442million for 1981-85 compared to US$373 for 1975-79
in constant 1977 dollars), reflectingthe expectedslow growth of public sector
investmentand the improvementin public savings performance. Because (a)
Paraguay has in the past obtained the bulk of its capital needs on conces-
sionary terms, (b) the inflows related to the hydroelectricprojects do not
require the country to make repayments,and (c) given the continued expansion
of exports, the debt-serviceratio is expected to fall from 13% of exports in
1979 to about 10% in 1985.

B. Policy Issues

77. A discussionof policy issues affecting Paraguay'sdevelopmenthas

to be set in the context of the highly successfulperformanceof the economy
during the last few years, which in no small measure is owed to the policies
followedby the Government. Chief among them have been the cautious fiscal
and monetary policiespursued, the primary reliance on the private sector and
the market mechanism for the allocationof resourcesand the general absence
of undue government interventionand controls. These policieshave facilitated
the accelerationof growth and a wide participationin its benefits, as indi-
cated by the rising incomes of small farmers, the narrowing of urban/rural
wage differentialsand the general improvementin employmentconditions.
Prospects for continuationof these basic trends are favorable.

78. Nevertheless,the accelerationof growth, the rapid changes taking

place in the economic structure of the country,and the increasingavailability
of external resources both open up new possibilitiesfor tackling old problems
more effectivelyand raise new policy issues. The Governmenthas stated its
developmentobjectivesin the 1977-81 National DevelopmentPlan and other
 - 33 -

official documents, stressing the need to maintain the present high rates of
economic growth and to achieve a wide distribution of its benefits. Although
these objectives were not specified in detail, and no strategy to attain them
was made explicit, it is possible to identify instances in which some of the
existing policies/regulations, either because they are remnants of policies
adopted in the past under different circumstances or because an integral
analysis of the situation is missing, do not seem to serve the stated objec-
tives. But it is not only the need to reconcile policies with changed circum-
stances that requires attention. New requirements on the public sector stem
from the process of growth itself and from the need to translate current
economic gains into permanent and widely distributed gains in the welfare of
the population. Many of the actions to achieve this fall in the public sector
domain.

79. Perhaps the clearest example is the need to accelerate and con-
solidate the income gains of campesinos, the majority of whom still live in
poverty. The potential exists, in the form of land and financial resources,
to increase support, according to the analysis presented here. Easing the
financial and administrative weaknesses of the institutions in charge of
providing direct support (MAG, IBR, SNF, MOPTC) would require well conceived
institution-upgrading programs, accompanied by the necessary financial resources.
To accomplish this, greater resource mobilization efforts would be required.

80. The economic growth and the increasing incomes foreseen provide the
potential for mobilizing greater resources without imposing undue costs on the
economy. The tax effort in Parguay is one of the lowest in Latin America, and,
in spite of the recent good performance, indications are that the tax system,
left as it is now, will not maintain revenue growth relative to GDP. Tax
collections in 1980 stagnated in real terms, and projections (Annex 2) indicate
that tax performance may further deteriorate. Thus, a gradual but integral
revision of the tax system seems advisable. Revision of the tax system is
required not only to increase revenues, but also to facilitate tax administra-
tion and reduce costs to taxpayers.

81. Some existing regulations conflict with the Government's own

general economic philosophy of avoidance of unnecessary intervention and
controls. Maintenance of the dual exchange market, for instance, is affecting
the incomes of agricultural producers (para 20). The exchange system,
together with the import regulations and the tariff system, have also contri-
buted to the increasing recurrence to irregular external trade channels, with
the consequent loss of tax revenues and increasing inability to follow trends
and know the composition of exports, imports, and external capital flows.
These regulations originate from the period when the country was facing BOP
problems and, under present circumstances, clearly warrant a reevaluation.
The same applies to the taxes affecting transactions in foreign exchange and
taxes on financial transactions, which have minor importance as sources of
income but impose costs on economic transactions.

82. In view of the growing needs for investments in infrastructure and

the expansion of social services, project generation continues to be weak.
Those in execution suffer delays because of the limited execution capacity of
the agencies, with the result that budget appropriations for investment are
 - 34 -

not fully utilized. The need for a well-preparedinvestmentprogram will

become even more acute when fiscal revenues from the compensationpayments for
the use of electricitybegin to accrue. The Governmentwill have to decide
how to utilize these revenues and accordinglyprepare an investmentprogram
and broaden the execution capacity of its agencies to implement such a program.
The implicationsof the availabilityof electricityfor the economy, and for
industrialdevelopment,need to be evaluated.

83. Planning the use of the foreign exchange inflows that will accrue
from the hydroelectricprojectswhen in operationwill require due considera-
tion to the effects these could have on the economy depending on how they are
utilized. Even though these flows will not be comparablein size to those
received by some of the oil-exportingcountries,they will, nevertheless,
provide a significantamount of foreign exchange (they could reach 6% of GDP
or roughly 25% of export earnings in 1990) without creating direct employment.
Consequently,an exchange rate that generates balance-of-paymentsequilibrium
including those flows could be inconsistentwith the competitivenessof
Paraguayanagricultureand industry and, hence, the full use of its productive
resources. This problem can be avoided if the bulk of these flows, which will
accrue largely to the Government,are channeled to increase investmentsin
support of productiveactivitiesand for upgrading the quality of human
resources,keeping up the pressure on exchangemarkets and thus avoiding
overvaluationof the exchange rate. 1/

84. Policy makers in Paraguay thus need to evaluate the available

options and the trade-offsbetween the seemingly competing or even contradic-
tory alternatives. It becomes increasinglynecessary that decisionsbe based
on analysis and consistencybe sought between policies, objectivesand actions
to achieve them. Progress in this direction is being made through the studies
being carried out on the alternativeuses of energy and future industrializa-
tion policy. To broaden this approach, however, it is necessary to have
technical expertise and a sound data base. Both are scarce in Paraguay.

85. It seems that at present economic policy makers, specificallythe

National Council of Economic Coordinationand the Economic Team 2/, do not
have sufficientsupport from a technicalbody providing backgroundon the
needs for and implicationsof economic policy decisions. The National Council
of Economic Coordinationhas, on occasion, requested this type of support in
the past, which was given through ad hoc commissionsdealing with specific
problems. A more permanentarrangementwith a broader view is required. Such

1/ Alternativelythe funds could be used to retire prematurelythe country's

external debt, delaying the emergence of overvaluation.

2/ The NationalCouncil of Economic Coordination,headed by the President

and constitutedby the Ministers and the heads of the legislativebody,
is in charge of all major economicpolicy decisions. The Economic Team
is a smaller body, headed by the Minister of Finance, which reviews and
screens issues to be seen by the Council of Economic Coordination.
 - 35 -

an institution could be the STP suitably strengthened or a smaller body

attached to it. The important point is that the proposed body would be of
high technical caliber capable of making integral analyses and of identifying
needs for more specialized studies (e.g., reform of tax system, industrial
policy, exchange rate issues, improvement of National Accounts data) and
making proposals for carrying them out. The costs of making decisions on the
basis of partial considerations will increase in the future, and inconsistencies
will become more obvious. Technical assistance to strengthen the Planning
Institute or other institutions should be sought. It would be worth consider-
ing setting up a task force to identify possible sources of support and the
most adequate avenues to secure it. Specialized agencies of the UN or other
international organizations could be approached, or a commission along the
lines of the 1968 Tax Commission for Colombia could be set up to address these
issues.

86. The absence of an institution responsible for evaluating the avail-

able options and ensuring coherence between the various policy alternatives
has also resulted in a general lack of concern for the availability and
quality of the data. Since no one is being called upon to make a broad
analysis of the interrelationships of the various macro-economic variables,
there is no perceived urgency to improve the quality of data and to reconcile
the various discrepancies. In this regard, an important improvement of data
is expected to result from the agricultural census to be carried out with Bank
support and from the establishment of the Financial Programming Unit in the
Ministry of Finance under the Bank's Second Preinvestment Project. Similar
efforts should be made in other sectors, while at the same time a gradual
upgrading of the technical level of the agencies related to the decision-
making process will create the demand for improvement of the data and raise
the quality of the analysis.

87. At the same time, increased efforts are necessary to improve the
quality of human resources to enhance the domestic capacity to conduct more
effectively the economic development of the country. Expansion of social
services is one of the prerequisites to improvement in this area. This is
discussed with more detail in the next chapter, with emphasis on basic
services in education, health and sanitation areas, where extensive effort
and planning will be required. Equally important, but of a more manageable
magnitude, is higher education. The increasing complexity of the economy
and its greater integration with the world economy has clearly given rise to
the need for upgrading higher education, which failed to develop in the context
of Paraguay's earlier stagnation and low income. Particular attention should
be given to expansion and improvement of training in technical areas (engineer-
ing, business management, agronomy) where the country's needs are expanding
rapidly. In this respect, IDB is currently preparing a program in support of
the National University of Acuncion (UNA), which, given the circumstances,
will fill one of the country's most urgent needs.
 - 36 -

III. PROVISIONOF SOCIAL SERVICES

A. Introduction

88. The Government'seconomic developmentstrategy,based on private

sector activity,has been successfulin acceleratingthe rate of growth
of the economy and in increasingthe incomes of the population. As a result
of the earlier stagnationand low income levels, however, a significantpart
of the populationis not adequatelyprepared to participate in, and to con-
tribute to, the current economic growth process in an effectivemanner.
Incorporationof these groups and improvementsin their productive capacity
and their standard of living will require increasedand targetedefforts
from the Government. This seems to be a requisite to translate the current
economic growth process into one of self-sustaineddevelopment.

89. The accelerationof growth and change has had an uneven effect
on the country'ssocio-economicdevelopment,and the lagging sectors
and structuralrigiditiescould become a future bottleneck to continued
growth. The developmentof social services, which are, to a large extent,
a responsibilityof governmentand do not automaticallyrespond to market
signals, has tended to lag behind the pace of economicgrowth, and raising
the current levels of coveragewill be one of the challengesfor Paraguay's
developmentduring the 1980's. The expanded provision of social services,
particularlyin educationand health, is necessary not only for basic needs
satisfactionbut also for sustainingthe economic growth process itself in
the long run.

90. A high degree of complementarityexists between a healthy and safe

environmentand the success of education efforts; for example, the higher the
literacy rate, the better the use of the health facilities,and the better
achievementlevels reached in formal education studies. The health conditions
of the population,in turn, affect the rate of achievementin education.
Here, the literacyrate, the coverage and quality of primary schooling and the
coverage and quality of secondary schoolingprove to be crucial determining
inputs. The growth of labor productivity,through improvedhealth and skills,
are crucial to sustainingthe growth process.

91. Among the host of institutionswhich operate in the social services

area in Paraguay are the Instituteof Social Security (IPS), Housing Institute
(IPVU), CORPOSANA,National Service of EnvironmentalSanitation (SENASA),
Ministry of Health and Social Assistance (MSPBS),and Ministry of Education
(MOE). This chapter focuses mainly on MOE, MSPBS, CORPOSANA,and SENASA,
the four institutionsmost closely linked with what may be called "basic
social services": provision of literacy programs, primary and secondary
education,adult training programs, curative and preventivehealth care, and
the provision of safe water and sewerage services in both urban and in
rural areas.
 - 37 -

B. Literacy and Education

(i) General Indicators

92. Paraguay'sformal education system is comprised of six years of

primary education,two three-yearcycles of secondary (grades 7-9 and 10-12),
and post-secondaryeducation,including teacher-traininginstitutionsand the
universities.

93. Primary school-agepopulation1/ (7-12 years) is about 500,000, or

16% of total population,while secondary school age (13-18) is 423,000 or 14%
of total. Thus, about 30% of Paraguay'spopulationis of school age. Enroll-
ment in the primary school system amounts to 512,000 students, 110,000 in
secondary school and about 23,000 in higher education levels. Gross enroll-
ment ratios, which include over-aged students, are 100% for primary school
and 26% for secondary;in primary education,however, only 46% of students
are in the grade correspondingto their age. From 1969 to 1978, enrollmentin
primary school has increased2.1% a year, below the growth rate of population
in the age group (2.6% a year). Expansion of secondary educationwas faster
(7.9%) but from a much smaller base (Table 10).

94. Resources devoted to education are low if comparedwith countries

of similar income level like Ecuador (3.7% of GNP) and Peru (4.2% of GNP).
Estimates for 1980 indicate that expenditureschanneled through the Ministry
of Education amounted to some 5,600 million guaranies,representingaround
13% of the Central Government'sbudget and 1.4% of estimatedGDP (Table 11).
Because of the small resourcesdevoted to the sector, institutionaldevelop-
ment has been weak. Administrationcontinues to be managed in a highly
centralizedfashion, there is lack of an informationsystem, inadequate
administrativefacilitiesand lack of trained managers. The sector's insti-
tutional structurewould have to be substantiallystrengthenedto launch an
ambitious program to expand and improve education services.

95. The literacyrate is officiallyestimated at 84%, 93% for urban

populationand 78% for rural. The reliabilityof these indicators,however,
is uncertain. The reportedaverage level of schoolingis 3.6 years for the
total populationand only 2.7 for the rural population. It is also reported
that 74% of the rural populationspeak only Guarani,which suggests that the
official literacyrate may be overestimated,given that in practice no written
material exists in Guarani. The implicit illiteracyrates reflect two basic
problemswith Paraguayaneducation: low enrollment(in 1978, about 17% of
the populationin the 7-14 age group failed to registerin school); and the
regressionof skills and illiteracyby lack of use, as a high number of the
enrolled are in school for no more than two years. The inefficiencyof the
system is reflectedalso by the fact that some 60% of students enrolled in
each grade is over-aged. In the first grade less than 50% of studentsare
7-year olds, and in the sixth grade fewer than 1/3 are 12-year olds.

1/ Official statisticsconsider primary school age 7-14 and secondary

school age 12-18, with an overlap of two years.
 - 38 -

Table 10: SCHOOL ENROLLMENT, 1969-78

A. Evolutionof Enrollmentin Primary Schooling1969-1978

1969 1972 1975 1978

Urban 200823 197932 191215 196685

Rural 207701 242219 261034 296546

Total 408524 440151 452249 493231

Share of
Public
School
Enrollment
in total
Enrollment 88% 86% 85% 86%

B. Evolutionof Enrollmentin SecondarySchooling1968-1978

1968 1970 1974 1978

Private school,
System 23714 28868 27258 31469

Public school
System 23612 26909 44361 69657

Total 47326 55777 71619 101126

Share of
Public
School
Enrollment
in totpil
Enrollment 50% 48% 62% 69%

Source: Anuario 1978, Ministeriode Educaci6n y Culto, Direcci6n de

Planeamiento,Unidad de Estadistica (Asunci6n,Paraguay, 1979).
 - 39 -

Table 11: Public Sector Spending on Education, 1975-80

(Percentage)

1975 1978 1979 1980

GDP 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.4*

Government
Budget 14.4 16.8 14.2 13.0*

* Provisional estimate.

Source: Central Government Accounts

(ii) Education Programs and Selected Policy Issues

96. The role of education as a crucial factor in the formation of

human capital and as a basic determinant of the quality of the labor force
is well known and has been documented extensively in the development litera-
ture. Present deficits in coverage and deficiencies in quality standards,
coupled with demands derived out of the rapid growth of real output, will
generate important pressures on Paraguay's educational system. Rapid
economic growth rates imply increased demand for many types of skills, which,
in turn, generate diversified demands on the formal and non-formal educational
systems.

97. But increased demands on Paraguay's supply of education do not

merely arise on account of the economic growth process. Population growth
(proceeding at an average rate of 2.9% per annum), internal migration and
redistribution of the population by regions and by urban-rural nuclei pose
new pressures of their own on specific components of the educational system.
An additional source of pressure on the system builds up as various households;
traverse different stages of real income levels, and their changing life-styles
and aspirations are reflected in new demands for educational services. A
clear-cut example is the positive association between personal income growth
and the demand for higher education. Depending on the way the country overcomes
the pressures described, they may end up challenging the economic growth
process itself via new deficits and shortfalls that may arise in the supply of
qualified, skilled and semi-skilled manpower.

98. The Government's policies and objectives in the sector were stated in
the 1969/1980 Education Development Plan. During the period 1969/1975, emphasis
was given to improving and expanding secondary education by including pre-
vocational courses in lower secondary education and by establishing a series
of diversified secondary schools. The objective was to improve graduates'
preparation for entry into the labor force or, alternatively, for further
specialization. Starting in 1975 the education development plan called for
special attention to the needs of the poorer segments of the population, with
particular emphasis on rural education.
 - 40 -

99. Some of the Government'sstated objectives in primary educationare:

(i) to increase by 2.5% per year the share of school-agepopulationwhich
receives the full six years of schooling;and (ii) to improve the quality and
efficiencyof primary education.The authorities plan to achieve these ends by
a combinationof the followingelements:

(i) evaluation and revision of primary education curriculum,so that

it responds to national, regionaland local characteristics;

(ii) achievementof effective community,teacher and student participation

in the education process;

(iii) implementationof the "nuclearization"system to achieve better

school administrationand supervision;

(iv) establishmentof a permanent in-servicetrainingprogram

for supervisors,administrativestaff and teachers;

(v) provision of textbooks to primary school students; and

(vi) expansion and reinforcementof health education and nutrition

education services.

100. To improve organizationand managementof the education system,

particularlyin the rural areas, a system of "nuclearization"is being estab-
lished, in which 10 to 15 schools are integratedinto an administrative
nucleus. Each nucleus is to be headed by a Director, who has no teaching
responsibilities,and whose main task is to supervise the activitiesand the
programs of associatedschools. The objectiveis to overcome some of the
administrativedifficultiesthat MOE has had, particularlyin the rural areas,
owing to populationdispersionand to weak informationsystems and management
controls. The inaccessibilityof rural schools and the lack of financial
resourcesfor the proper functioningof the system has led to difficulties
in the relations between the Departmentof Primary Education,based at the
Ministry, and each of the actual service units in the rural areas. Because of
physical distance, lack of personnel and of transportmeans, schools have been
functioningwithout effective supervision. Problems related to teacher and
student absenteeism,completion of course content and promotion standards
can be detected;establishingand enlarging the senior administrationlevel
through the school nuclearizationsystem should aid in improving the situation.

101. The Education Plan does not specify the investmentefforts to be

carried out. One example of the investmenteffort that the Governmenthas
made in educationduring the past decade, however, is in connectionwith
IBRD-supportedprojects. The first Bank Group education loan of December 1972
 - 41 -

Table 12: PRIMARYEDUCATION- NUMBEROF SCHOOLS,TEACHERSAND STUDENTS

School Teaching
Years Buildings Posts Students

1974 2770 16401 462504

-1975 2779 15398 452249

1976 3003 16208 467552

1977 3027 16869 478584

1978 3140 17525 493231

1979 3350 18200 504,000

Source: Secretaria Tecnica de Planificacion, on the basis of

data of Ministerio de Educacio'n y Culto.
 - 42 -

amounted to US$5.1 million supporting the establishment of the first diversified

secondary schools in the country as well as improvement of technical education.
The second Bank loan for a total of US$4 million (May 1976) is supporting expan-
sion and improvement of the vocational training capabilities of the National
Vocational Training Service (SNPP). The third Bank education project for a
total of US$8.0 million (November 1976) is assisting in expanding and improving
educational opportunities for children and adults in the rural areas via
construction of rural primary schools, diversified secondary schools, textbooks,
teacher training, etc. Finally, a fourth Bank Group project has been approved
(May 1981) to assist in expanding education and training opportunities for the
poorer segments of the population, with special emphasis on rural primary educa-
tion. The main content of the fourth project is the establishment of a school
nuclearization system in 43 rural areas, extension of the use of multigrade
teaching techniques, and the building and/or equipping of about 500 schools in
communities lacking educational services. It will also help rural areas by
introducing non-formal education and training programs for adults. The project
includes support to critical pedagogical needs at the national level, as well
as technical assistance for improving central education administration in the
area of primary education.

102. One of the main policy issues to be confronted by policy-makers

in the education sector is how to ensure that the services provided by the
system--their structure, number and quality--permit the students to respond
in an efficient and socially desirable manner to the employment opportunities
generated by the growing economy. Present quantitative and qualitative
deficits of the education system need to be overcome, if the educational system
is to meet the economy's future demands for labor skills. Some innovative
models are currently under consideration by Paraguay's education planners and
these may be conducive to the goals previously outlined-

103. Improvement of the education system requires more than the mere
addition of educational inputs: it also requires a corresponding response
from students and their families. This response will depend not only on the
availability of services but also on their orientation. In the rural areas,
especially, it is necessary that the primary education services offered
simultaneously be conducive to higher educational levels and provide interme-
diate skills, which, in turn, make practical to the student his or her effi-
cient incorporation to the active labor force. Otherwise, if gaps are generated
within the education process as the student traverses different cycles, the
high proportion of early dropouts will continue. For example, students may
desert after grades 3 or 4 of primary schooling, once they have learned how to
read and write, because the secondary cycle is considered to be unconducive to
meaningful qualifications from the point of view of the parents. The objective
is to provide more flexibility and adaptability to the educational structure
in order to allow for the possibility of intermediate skills (skills in present
and future demand by the households).
 - 43 -

104. A new model of curriculum and grade structure which partially

satisfies these needs is presently being analyzed for possible future imple-
mentation. The "Educacion Tecnica Basica" project 1/ complements the efforts
that have been made in the areas of basic education for adults and technical
schools at the secondary school level. The core of the project is to supply
diversified technical education to boys and girls over 15 years of age who have
complete primary school training. The idea is to provide basic technical
training leading to intermediate skills. The three-year program to be offered,
which would allow for the possibility of primary graduates receiving a combi-
nation of humanistic-technical training within secondary school, would lead
nevertheless to the acquisition of marketable skills suitable for activities of
commerce, agriculture, industry trades, and services. This new curriculum has
two main advantages:

(a) improved practical incentives for students to enroll in and

complete primary school; and

(b) the opening up of alternatives for further specialization, either

at the technical-vocational levels or at the traditional bachelor
grades and superior education levels.

105. The other noteworthy example of efforts being made in the high
priority area of technical-vocational training is the activity of the SNPP.
This institution, created by the end of 1971 (Law 253), has received support
from IBRD and other international organizations. During 1972-1979 it trained
some 20,000 workers in a variety of programs covering administrative techniques,
technical skills, and trades in industry, agriculture and services. It has
also delivered educational services in a useful and innovative program of
"rural family administration", where literate as well as illiterate adults
from rural settlements have learned the basics of household organization and
household chores, family-types of agricultural cultivation, etc.

106. In contrast to the situation prevailing in programs under the

supervision of MOE, SNPP as a semi-autonomous organization has significant
degrees of freedom for the determination of personnel salaries 2/. The freer
rein for salaries paid and for teaching schedules has allowed the recruitment
of adequately trained personnel, and there has been much less turnover of
instructors than in comparable organizations 3/. Thus, flexibility in salary
determination and adaptability in work schedules would seem to be useful
ingredients for the success of other specialized institutions and programs

1/ "Programa de Educacion Tecnica y Capacitacion Profesional. Una respuesta

Educativa a la Formulacion Tecnica Basica" (draft document), Ministerio
de Educacion y Culto (Asuncion, September, 1980).

2/ The SNPP is formally under the direction of the Ministry of Justice and
Labor but, in fact, is governed by a semi-autonomous board of directors
with public sector, private sector and trade union membership.

3/ New, qualified instructors earn a monthly salary of US$317, plus a pre-

mium of US$80, when assigned to rural training programs.
 - 44 -

operating in the education sector. Formal and non-formaleducation and train-

ing programs of the types described should provide important complementary
incentivesto the basic efforts being made for expanding literacy (child and
adult), raising coverage at the primary school level, and improving the
internal productivityof the system (raisingpromotion and retention).
Expanding practical opportunitiesprovided at the intermediatelevel should
provide incentivesto students of primary and secondary levels as well as to
remedial trainees. These incentivesare useful complementsto the efforts
being made to improve enrollmentcoverage and provision of basic educational
inputs.

107. The higher mobility of the populationand the labor force, the
changing occupationalstructure as the developmentprocess evolves, and the
dominant needs of a still predominantlyrural society,are all factors which
point to the convenienceof developingan educationalstrategy for the decade
with emphasis in "reach" and "flexibility". Concentrationof efforts now at
the base of the education system (meaningexpanded literacy campaigns,primary
education expansionwith emphasis in the rural areas, and the developmentof
technicaland non-formaleducation)would allow for timely expansion of
higher educationallevels in the future.

108. Consequently,primary education,and particularlyrural primary

education,seems to be the highest priority in the developmentof the educa-
tional system. Although there is a significantvariance in educational
service indicatorsby (regional)education departmentsand between urban and
rural areas within and across departments,the existing divergencebetween
urban and rural areas is striking:

(i) The net enrollmentratio in the rural primary education system

is 76%, 20 percentagepoints lower than in the urban areas;

(ii) Some 60% of rural schools offer less than the required 6 grades,
as compared to 95% complete primary schools in urban areas;

(iii) In the rural areas, there is an average of 2 school directors

for every 41 school teachers,whereas in the urban areas the
average is 2 directors for every 13 school teachers;

(iv) The proportion of first-classteachers (teachersholding a

certificate)is much higher in urban schools than in rural schools;

(v) Out of the total number of dropout studentsof the primary system,
traditionallysome 2/3 belong to the rural areas; whereas in the
urban school system slightly over one student in four drops out
before completingprimary schooling,in rural schools the same
indicatoris on the order of 3 dropouts out of every four students;
and

(vi) In the rural areas there is not a single departmentshowing

repetitionrates of less than 20% for first-gradestudents.
 - 45 -

109. These differencies acquire special importance in a situation where

more than 60% of the country's population is rural. Given the high urban-rural
variance and the elevated repetition rates, coverage of the total eligible
population continues to be one of the important unsatisfied targets of the
system. Both, school and non-school related factors contribute to the high
failure and drop-out rates in rural areas. Non-school factors are the inabil-
ity of parents to afford the direct I/ and indirect costs of schooling.
Of these, the indirect costs include the need of poor parents for the services
and labor of their children. Among school-related factors are that schools
frequently are located too far from a student's house, making it physically
difficult to attend or stay enrolled in school. Unavailability of schools
beyond the third or fourth grade prevents many students from continuing
their primary education. In addition, many parents withdraw their children
from school because of dissatisfaction with the irrelevance of the
traditional curriculum (still taught in 90% of the schools), poor condi-
tion of school buildings and lack of instructional materials.

110. Another issue of importance for the functioning of the education

system is that of teachers' salaries. The year-by-year costs estimated
in the projections under alternative benchmarks of effort (Section iii)
carry the implicit assumption that the number of teachers needed will
be effectively forthcoming each year. Typically, primary education teachers
require 12 years of schooling and two years training in education techniques.
After graduation their skills qualify them in several job categories currently
in high demand in Paraguay: secretarial jobs, bank tellers, and other white
collar positions in commerce, industry and services. In this respect, the
present low salaries attached to jobs in public education imply the continuous
risk of desertion or lack of future availability of students interested in
teacher training and pedagogical positions.

111. Several categories of low and semi-qualified rural teachers of

public schools earn base salaries which are on the order of 012,700 to 015,000
monthly (US$100 - US$120), plus housing facilities. These base salaries are
supplemented by earnings for extra teaching hours (normally the case in the
rural areas), by adding a supervisor-work fee, or by extra payments if the
teacher exercises the job of school director. The relevant full salary (1980)
for an average teacher was the equivalent of about US$200 monthly.

112. Information on "minimum salaries" shows that specialized employees

working in banks, commerce and services earned monthly salaries on the order
of US$240-US$390. Income data arising out of household surveys in Asuncion
show a relatively high frequency of earners in the US$238-US$320 monthly

1/ Parents are expected to pay for about 30% of the cost of rural primary
education (1,372 guaranies for school material and uniforms out of a
total of 4,494 guaranies in 1975). In reality, however, they have not
been able to buy the necessary books.
 - 46 -

income range. Assuming that additionalteachers to work in rural areas will

have to be recruited from these sectors, it may be consideredthat on average
a monthly salary of US$260 is requiredto attract qualified teachers and to
ensure their permanence in teaching jobs. This "opportunitycost"?represents
a premium of about 30% over the present average teacher salary in the rural
areas.

113. Partly reflectingthe present salary and incentive problem, over 90%
of the existing 12,000 teachers are female, and a large share of teachershave
very poor preparationand deliver low quality education,particularlyin rural
areas. For example, only 2/3 of the rural teachers are certified,as compared
to 95% in the urban areas. In general, even trained teachersare poorly
prepared to work in rural environments;they are inexperiencedin multigrade
teaching techniquesand lack knowledge of specific local conditions. These
facts imply low morale for teachers, are a deterrent to the attraction of
better talent, and lower incentivesfor completionof grade cycles by the
studentsthemselves.

114. Two recent measures, however, give grounds for some optimism.
Congresshas approved a 38% salary increase for 1981 over essentiallystagnant
salaries in real terms during the last five years. Second a new formal
salary scale is being institutedwhich providespremiums for experience,
attendanceof training courses,work in rural or frontierareas, and work with
multigradeclasses and in two-shift schemes. As in other social sectors,
increasedattention should be provided to the issue of salaries,if bottle-
necks to expanded coverageare to be avoided. The issue, however, should be
approachedin an integralmanner, so that the various elements affecting a
compensationpolicy be properly considered,and the compensationsystem
respondsto the Government'sobjectivesand possibilities. The recently
approved Fourth Education Project (paragraph100) contemplatesperformingsuch
a study from which better bases for policy decisionswill be available.

(iii) Expansion Needs and Resource Requirements

Demand Projections

115. This section discusses the methodologyused for projectingthe

demand for primary education services in the rural areas for the decade
1981-1990. The estimateswere built using reasonableworking hypotheses
applied to base-periodfigures (officialestimatesfor 1980) pertainingto
the rural segments of each of the relevant 16 regional departments1/. The
alternativesconsideredin the projectionsprovide plausible figures,which
may be used to derive estimates of basic investmentsrequiredin rural primary

1/ The 16 regional departmentsconsideredfor base figures and for the

projectionswere Concepcion,San Pedro, Cordillera,Guaira, Caaguazu,
Caazapa,Itapua, Misiones, Paraguari,Alto Parana, Central, Neembucu,
Amambay, Canendiyu,Pdte. Hayes, and Alto Paraguay, Nueva Asuncion,
Chaco, Boqueron consideredin one group.
 - 47 -

education for the present decade 1/. Usual considerations with respect to
data and methodology limitations apply here and should be taken into account
before jumping directly to policy conclusions.

116. The main purpose of this analysis is to provide an illustration of

probable basic investment requirements in the area, if the targets underlying
the projections are considered to be desirable and attainable by Paraguay's
policy-makers.

117. The projection exercise obtained annual flow figures (1981-1990)

of estimated student enrollment by grades (grades 1 to 6) for each of
the regional departments considered in the education mapping. Three elements
were necessary for the projection:

(i) the stock of students enrolled in each grade, by department, in the

base year 1980; 2/

(ii) estimates of the yearly growth rates of eligible population by

department for the decade;

(iii) targets refering to the internal efficiency rates of the

rural primary system (repetition, desertion, dropouts, retention
rates). 3/

118. Information supplied by the Department of Statistics of MOE provided

the total 1980 student enrollment in rural primary schools classified by
regional departments. This source, however, did not provide a breakdown of
enrollment by different grades; this breakdown was performed using the elabora--
tion in "Educacion Primaria. Porcentaje de Matriculados y No Matriculados por

1/ The projections are based on the double basis of student enrollments

(according to projected population growth) and efficiency indicators
("desgranamiento" and retention by the system). Different alternatives
for choosing educational inputs required are possible (construction
and/or completion of school classrooms, teachers staffing, books and
equipment, etc). Because of data limitations and time constraints, the
projection exercise was restricted to cover only some of the principal
components of required investments.

2/ A more refined calculation would have considered the stock of "legitimate"

new entrants to first grade in the base year 1980. The removal of
repeaters from the stock figures for the first year of schooling would
have been more consistent with the eligible population growth rates later
employed. This is, however, a relatively minor point, given that in any
case repeaters also need and use student places, and given that efficiency
improvements were considered in the projections.

3/ See text and footnotes in paragraph 118 for the relations existing between
these variables.
 - 48 -

Grado, segun Edad y Sexo.' 1/ Estimates of the annual growth rates of eligible
population(7-14 years) for each of the regional departmentswere also taken
from UNESCO. 2/

119. An innovativefeature of these projectionsis the incorporation

of a specific improvementtarget regarding the currentlyhigh repetitionand
dropout rates, to be achievedgradually through the decade 3/. In concrete
terms, the chain of enrollment-by-grade flows was developedallowing for a
gradual reduction of the rate of desgranamiento,so that by the end of the
decade the average retention rate of each departmentwas raised by a third of
its original value 4/.

120. Therefore,the explicit target being postulatedfor Paraguay's rural

primary education system considers the achievementof two goals in the course
of the present decade:

(a) to satisfy year by year the additionaldemands on the system derived

out of eligiblepopulationgrowth, so that enough student places are
available every year to absorb the potential inflow of new students;
and

(b) to increasethe productivityof the educationalsystem, gradually

improving the average retentionrate (lowering the abnormal repeti-
tion and desertion rates of the past) by a third at the end of the
decade.

121. The benchmark consideredhere does not include the possibilityof

raising enrollmentrates by grade in a way that would cover 100% of the
present cohorts of eligible populationin the range of 7-14 years of age.
Evidently,if a stricterstandard such as achieving 100% coverage by cohort in
each year (includingthose currentlyleft out) were imposed as the norm, then
the educationaleffort and investmentrequirementswould correspondinglybe
raised above the estimated figures.

1/ La Educaci6n y su Apoyo al DesarrolloRural, UNESCO mission, Paraguay.

EFM, Annex 44.

2/ Ibid.

3/ Original figures for progressionand desgranamientoby departments

were obtained from 1975-1978 estimatesperformed by the UNESCO Mission
(Annex 49 of their study).

4/ If we call R the retentionrate and d the rate of desgranamiento(includes

repetitionand desertion),and given that primary scho 5 lasts six years,
the relationbetween both variables becomes (d = 1 - R ), a relation
which was used in the projectionstarting from known average d rates by
department(1975-1978estimates)and working to reach the target R by 1990.
 - 49 -

122. In sum, the projections start from 1980 stock figures by departments,
introduce average annual rates of growth of first-grade cohorts for each of the
departments, and incorporate a specific pattern of gradual yearly reduction in
the average rate of desgranamiento observed for the base period in each
department. The resulting flow figures for additional student enrollment are
presented in Table 10.3 of the Statistical Appendix. Estimated enrollment in
1985 by this projection would reach 370,765 student places, an increase of 16%
over the 1980 stock. By 1990 total enrollment in primary education in the
rural areas would reach about 440,000, representing an increase of 38% over
the decade 1/. On average for the twelve regions as a whole, the yearly effort
implied is slightly below the historical growth of annual enrollment (3.4%
over 1972-78).

Investment Requirements and Cost Benchmarks

123. After having projected the annual flow of student enrollment

during the decade, projections of the consequent costs are attempted for the
construction of new schools, the expansion of classroom area within already
established schools, and the additional teachers needed for servicing the
increased student enrollment. Physical equipment related to new school
construction and to new classrooms built was considered in the estimates, but
considerations of the development of text books and other didactic materials,
curriculum innovation, and the costs involved in project preparation and
development (consultants, etc.) were left out. 2/

124. The investment requirements projected by regional department were

established in two separate components:

(i) additional construction space needed for the incoming flows, and

(ii) additional primary school teachers needed for servicing

the estimated student enrollment (under a specific student/teacher
norm).

The criteria used for defining whether a particular department required devel-
opment of new primary schools or the addition of classroom space in already
established schools was based on preliminary evidence arising out of the
education mappings undertaken by the Ministry of Education. Using different
parts of the fragmentary evidence available out of the mappings, it was
determined that a specific department required new school-construction invest-
ment if in 1979:

1/ The projection implies an annual compound growth rate of 3.27%.

2/ Given that the basic figures of the projections are expressed in student
enrollment numbers, nothing precludes the estimation of more complete
investment requirements if enough information on cost norms are
obtainable. In any case, the elements that have been left out mean
a downward bias in the investment costs as projected.
 - 50 -

(a) less than 40% of the schools available in the departmentoffered

complete primary schooling;

(b) the departmentwas identifiedas an area of "major educational

deficits";or

(c) the number of communitiesthat did not have schools within the
departmentwas significant.

125. In most cases these three variables are highly and positively
correlated,and, where geographicallocation representedspecial problems for
the provision of education (Chaco, frontier departments,etc.), the indicators
showed that new school constructionwas necessary. Out of the sixteen depart-
ments consideredin the projections,eight were determinedto need new schools
and eight to need only additional classroomspace and equipment within already
establishedschools. The latter were the Departments of Cordillera,Guaira,
Caaguazu, Caazapa,Misiones, Paraguari, Central and Neembucu 1/.

126. A policy caveat is relevanthere. On the one hand, consideringthat

out of the 12 regional departments the standardof new school constructionwas
imposed only in five of them, it could happen that a revised in-depthdiagnosis
might find the need for supplying additionalnew schools rather than merely
additionalclassroomspace. If that were the case, investmentrequirements
would grow correspondingly. On the other hand, experts have argued in favor
of the "small school" approach. They point out that there are both locational
conveniencesfor the beneficiariesin building up new schools rather than
merely adding classroom space in pre-existingones, and that it also saves
money in supportinginputs given the economies of scale existing for the joint
process of site developmentand school building. Therefore, the choice
between new schools and enlarged schools is an open issue with pro's and con's
to be weighed by Paraguay'seducation planners in accordancewith the specific
cost/benefitanalysis to be performed for each of the communitieswhere
investmentsare needed.

127. As for the standard utilized for computing investmentcosts, only

one pattern was available. Interviewswith the leading architectsof the
Projects Departmentof the Ministry of Education providedbasic information
on norms and costs under a given pattern of average rural primary school
construction. The norms and costs used correspondto the patterns developed
in rural areas of the departmentof San Pedro and are very similar to those
of the Third MEC/IBRD Education Project. The norm considersan average

1/ An alternative,upper-boundparameter,would have been to consider

that for all 16 departmentsthe additionalenrollmentflows implied
the need of constructingnew schools,given the spatial dispersion
of communitiesin the departments. Also, consideringthe transportation
and communicationproblems across localitiesof a given departmentor
major region, this alternativebenchmark could be an acceptable one.
 - 51 -

four-classroom school, each room having 48 square meters and capacity for
40 students per shift. Also included are administrative, general services
(bathroom area, circulation, etc.), and housing areas. No space for workshops
was considered. Table 13 itemizes each of the cost figures and norms describ-
ing this standard 1/. Estimates for additional classroom space were made
using the same reference standard and considering the relevant proportions of
space and costs (Table 14).

128. In those departments requiring full school construction, the invest-

ment cost is estimated as an average of US$315.43 per square meter (Table 13),
and under typical service capacity standards, 1.2 square meters per student
enrolled should be needed. This means an average investment cost of US$378.5
per student enrolled. Rows (2) in flow Table 10.3 of the Statistical Appendix
indicate the extra sq. mt. required each year; row (3) translate these
into cost equivalent figures (US$ investment requirements). For those depart-
ments estimated to need only additional classroom area, the investment cost
per enrolled student becomes US$219.89 (average costs of US$274.86 per square
meter required times 0.8 square meters per student enrolled). The investment
cost figures under this standard are presented in rows (3*) of Table 10.3.

129. Preceding investment costs refer to fixed capital needs; apart from
these four other requirements were estimated for the decade. The training
costs involved in supplying additional primary school teachers are projected
on the basis of projected primary school enrollment, the assumption of two-
shift schools, and a projected (terminal) student/teacher ratio by shift of
35/1. These estimates consider a replacement ratio of about 7% per year on
the yearly stock of teachers. The resulting flow of new required teachers
through 1990 are as follows:

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

# of new
teachers
needed 760 710 630 610 660 620 690 980 1,030 1,080

129. Education experts on Paraguay have advised that, on average, the

direct cost of the simple two-year training program required for new teachers
is of the order of US$1,500. This cost standard generates the following
minimum profile of estimated annual training costs for the required new
teachers:

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

Training
Costs 1.14 1.07 0.95 0.92 0.99 0.93 1.04 1.47 1.55 1.62
(million US$)

1/ The norms and unit cost figures used are of an order of magnitude
which in general is consistent with figures used by the Education
Projects Division of IBRD.
 - 52 -

131. The present gap of textbooks for grades 1 to 6 is estimated to be on

the order of 1.2 million books. The costs of government-suppliedtextbooks
range from US$0.80 to US$2.50 per copy. The mid-point of this range, US$1.65
per copy, was consideredrepresentativeof average costs, resulting in a gross
requirementof about US$12 million to fill the present textbookgap. These
costs were prorated at an average of US$1.2 million per year for each of the
ten years in the period.

132. The addition of recurrentcosts in the forms of extra salary payments,

additions of materials,added maintenancecosts, etc., were simply estimated
on the basis of their typical cost shares revealedby execution of past
projects. In this case, additionalrecurrentcosts were estimated as 5% of
the sum of fixed investmentand training costs. The resulting year-by-year
projectedcost requirementsfrom these various sources,Table 15 indicate an
overall figure of US$66 million (in 1979 prices), representingthe required
expendituresin the decade (mainly capital expenditures)under this assumed
governmenteffort.

133. A more ambitious effort would be required to include amongst the

precedinggoals one of the stated intentionsof the 1969-1980Education
DevelopmentPlan, namely the enrollmentof 90% of primary school-agechildren
by the year 1985. Here the emphasis is with providing coverage for the
childrenwho have currently been left out of the primary school system.
Comparingnet enrollmentrates, this additionaltarget would roughly imply
providing between 100,000-120,000new student places for servicing presently
non-enrolledchildren. If the figure of 100,000 students is considereda more
reasonablerepresentationof the numbers in need, then under the benchmark of
new school constructionneeded and with the cost standardsused, the additional
fixed investmentrequirementwould amount to roughly US$38 million. The more
ambitious but sociallydesirable goal of doing both would amount then to a
global figure of about US$104 million, for the decade.

134. Finally, the incrementalexpendituresnecessary to raise the salaries

of the approximately12,000 existing teachersgradually to $260 by 1990
(paragraph111), and the cost of putting the new teachersat that salary
level, are includedunder benchmark II.

135. Thus, the detailedprojectionsperformed show that under reasonable

standardsParaguay will face priority investmentneeds of US$66 million under
one benchmark of education targets,rising to US$138 million under a more
ambitious set of goals. These figures are on top of normal current and
traditionalcapital expendituresin education,signallingthe future effort
required in only a selectionof the main education areas.
 - 53 -

Table 13: SCHOOL CONSTRUCTIONCOST ITEMS: AVERAGE QUALITY STANDARD

FOR RURAL PRIMARY SCHOOL
(US dollars per square meter; costs as of November 1980)

1. School Building Construction Costs 182.54

(Asuncionbasis)

2. Site Development 32.85

(18% of item 1 - costs)

3. ProfessionalServices of Surveyor & Development 3.65

(includes architects, topography, etc.)

4. Average Surcharge on Costs due to Regional Location 43.81

5. Subtotal 262.85

plus 6. School Furniture and basic Equipment 52.58

(equivalentto 20% of subtotal)

7. Total Investment Costs per sq. mt. 315.43

(5. + 6.)

Source: Mission Estimatesperformed on the basis of information

providedby architects Samaniego& Mendoza (PROJECTS
DEPARTMENT,Ministeriode Educacion y Culto, November
_ 1980).
 -54-

Table 1- SCHOOLAREAAND STUDENTSERVICE CAPACITYFOR AVERAGETYPE RURALSCHOOL

(in square meters and number of students)

A. DISTRIBUTIONOF SCHOOL AREA (sq. mt.)

(average school 4 classrooms)

1. Net classroom area 192

2. AdministrativeServices Area 24

3. General Services Area 24

4. Housing Area (Teachers) 48

5. Subtotal (Net School Area) 288

plus 6. Required Area for Circulation 95

(33X--of 5.)

7. Total School Area Required 383

(sq. mt.)

B. STUDENT CAPACITY (enrollment)

8. Number of Students per Classroom 40

9. Number of Classroomsper School 4

10 Total Student Service Capacity in Two Shifts 320

( - 40 x 4 x 2)

C. Total Required (average) Square Meters per Student

Enrolled 1.2
(383 sq. mt./320 students)

C . Required Square Meters per Student for Class-

room Constructiononly 0.8
(192 sq. mt. plus required circulation area/
320 students)

Source: Mission Estimates (informationfrom Projects Department;

Ministry of Education).
 - 55 -

Table 15: SUMMARY OF PROJECTED INVESTMENT COSTS

UNDER THE EXPANDED EFFORT BENCHMARK

(US$ million in 1979 prices)

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Benchmark I 5.7 6.0 5.7 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.8 7.6 7.9 8.2

2. Benchmark II 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.7 2.9 3.2 4.2 4.3 4.5
(covering those
presently non-enrolled)

3. Expanded Benchmark 16.5 16.6 16.2 16.1 16.8 9.2 10.0 11.8 12.2 12.7
(1 + 2)

C. Health Services

(i) General Indicators

136. Paraguay's general health indicators can be characterized by two main

features: (a) overall indices show a lower health status than in comparable
developing countries; and (b) nationwide averages misrepresent the situation
of a large number of regions given the extreme variance shown by health
indicators.

137. One of the best summary indicators of overall health conditions is

life expectancy at birth. Here the national index of 64 years for Paraguay
(61.9 years for men and 66.4 years for women) ranks better than most of the
indices relevant for Central American countries (57 for Honduras, 57 Guatemala,
55 Nicaragua), but compared to selected southern-cone Latin American countries,
Paraguay's life expectancy is far below: in Uruguay and Argentina life
expectancy at birth reaches 71 years, and 67 in Chile.

138. National average figures describing the intake of calories (3,098

per day per capita) and the intake of proteins (80 grams per day per capita)
indicate that in this area Paraguay-s population is in a better standing than
the average situation in Latin America. The main nutrition problem lies in
the relatively unbalanced diet consumed by most of the rural population, a
diet lacking in some important vitamins such as vitamin A.

139. The overall mortality rate for the country is about 8.8 per thousand
population. The indices of infant and child mortality, as well as those
describing the incidence of important diseases through time, show that some
progress has been achieved. The present health status, however, reveals that
increased and improved action from the health organizations is needed. The
 - 56 - -

infant mortality rate was lowered from 97.2 per thousandlive births in 1960
to 91.6 in the early 1970s, to the current 89.1, which may be compared to
rates of 56 in Costa Rica, 83 in Guatemala,81 in Colombia, and 110 in Brazil.
This trend is shown (Table 16) taking three-yearaverages in order to lessen
the biases arising from changes in statisticalunder-registrationand from
exceptionalcauses of mortality.

Table 16: SelectedHealth Indicators,1960-78

(per thousand)

a) Infant Mortality Rate

1960 1967-69 1970-72 1974-77

Country 97.2 93.6 91.6 89.1

AsuncionArea 82.1 75.6 73.1 63.1
InteriorAreas 101.2 96.3 96.0

b) Neo-natals (1-28 days old) Mortality Rates

1960 1965 1970 1975 1978

% Rate 48.8 43.3 41.1 35.9 34.9

Source: EstadisticasVitales y Sanitarias1960-1978;MSPBS, Asunci6n

140. A closer look at infant mortality shows that mortality rates of neo
natals (1 to 28 days old) have decreasedsignificantlyin the course of the
past twenty years: from 48.8 per thousandlive births in 1960 to 41.1 in
1970, to 34.9 by the end of the seventies(Table 16). The improvementin this
indicatorhas not been translatedin an equivalentway to child mortality of
the 1-4 age group, which shows a current mortality rate on the order of 56.

141. Diarrhea diseases still representa relativelyhigh share of causes

of death: some 14%, which is about the same for the share (14.7%) of all
deaths from respiratorydiseases (pneumonia,influenza,bronchitis,emphysema,
and asthma). These facts have led medical authoritiesto state that Paraguay
is still living in the "epidemicalstage" of health problems.

142. One of the critical tests of a national health care system is the
degree of coverage. A health system consistingof high quality, selective,
high-cost servicesconcentratedexclusivelyin one or two big cities, would
receive low priority in a country like Paraguay, given the importanceof its
rural, young and dispersed populationpresently in need. The issue of
coverage expansionhas received close attention on the part of public health
planners and has been an important issue of discussionin past area plans.
 - 57 -

143. The "Plan Nacional de Salud 1976-1980"published in 1975 (MSPBS,

Asuncion) devoted attention to the assessmentof health care coverageand to
official targets and programs for expansion. According to the Plan (MSPBS has
just started preparationof a new plan), the coverage figures for 1974
(diagnosisyear) were estimatedas follows:

Institution Estimated coverage

(per cent of total
population)

Ministeriode Salud Publica y

Bienestar Social 56%
Military Health Care System 10%
Police Health Care System 2%
University (ClinicsUNA) 2%
Institutode Prevision Social 7%

Total Coverage 77%

144. These figures indicate that in 1974 at most 77% of the population
(1,980,000inhabitants)was covered by some type of health care organization,
leaving an estimated 592,000 people (mainly from the rural areas) without
health care services. Although no explicit definitionof coverage is provided
in the Health Plan, health plannersworking at the Ministry of Health pointed
out in the course of interviewsthat communitiesliving more than 12 kilo-
meters away from the closest availablehealth institution(post, center,
hospital)were generally consideredto be uncovered by the national health
system. Therefore,coverage is officiallyunderstood in Paraguay as the
capacity for receivinghealth attention in terms of geographicaccess.

145. Two alternativecalculationsof coveragewere presented during a

health planningseminar organized by MSP and OPS-OMS during 1978. The first 1/
attempted an indirectcalculationbased on the estimatednumber of inhabi-
tants per unit of supply of services, on observedaverages of health services
delivered per inhabitant-year,and on the potentialcapacity of coverage of
existing service units with a standard of 4 health deliveriesper inhabitant-
year. The results indicated that the non-coveredpopulationcould represent
as much as 67% nationwide,with higher percentagesin localitieshaving fewer
than 2,000 inhabitants. This estimatemay be too pessimistic,consideringthe
high standardof health deliveriesper inhabitant-yearused. A standardof
2-2.5 seems more reasonableconsideringthe patterns observedfor other
Latin American countries. For example, in Colombia the standardhas been on
the order of 2.3 deliveriesper inhabitant-year.

1/ E. Villalvaand M. Espinoza "Productividady Financiamientode los

Serviciosde Salud del Paraguay,"July 1978, Asuncion.
 - 58 -

146. A second study 1/ suggests that a more plausible figure for health
service coverage on a nationwidebasis was around 60-66% in 1980. Still
alternativesources have indicated that by 1978 the estimated (lower-bound)
coverage figures,by health care institutioncategories,were about 56% for
MSPBS, 3% for IPS, and 5% for health institutionsbelonging to the private
subsector,adding up to a total coverage of about 64%. 2/

147. Precision in coverage estimationis not, of course, possible.

Firstly, in Paraguay the populationinforming in matters dealing with public
health is very small (55% estimated by the statisticsdepartmentof the
Ministry),an indirectindicationof lack of coverageby the system. Second,
exactly what is meant by "coverageof health care system" is an open issue. 3/
The definitionof coverage should vary depending on the aim pursued. From the
point of view of public effort and the planning of the growth of health
services, a summary notion describingthe population'sbroad opportunityof
access to preventivecare, as well as to treatmentwhen ill, would be desirable.
The main interest is the extension and comprehensivenessof existing health
programs in terms of their capacity to satisfy potentialhealth service
demands from the populationat large. Given the public good character of many
health activities,there are considerableoperationalproblems in establishing
a useful method for comparing the existing supply units' capacitiesto serve
and the potential demand, as well as the revealeddemand, from the population
in need.

148. For illustrativepurposes the evidenceprovided indirectlyby two

alternativeindicatorswas examined. These indicatorsare mutually con-
sistent as summary representationsof degree of coverage. Table 17 provides
informationby regional health area on "professionally-assisted births"
expressed as a percentageof total registeredbirths. 4/ This basic indicator
of health care attendanceat the very initial point of the life cycle shows a

1/ Geladio Zelada "El Programa de Extension de los Servicios de Salud del

Paraguay" published in Demanda que la Extension de Cobertura Impone
a la Administraci6nde los Servicios de Salud, Seminario Nacional de
Administraci6nde Servicios de Salud (24-26 de Julio, 1978, Asunci6n).

2/ IDB, Paraguay. Program for Expansion and Improvementof the Rural Health
Services. (PR-0016;August 1978).

3/ Implicitlyhere the definitionof coverage concerns itself with the

actually registeredaccess to vital services such as assistanceat birth
or at death.

4/ As in other choices for coverage standards,this one is also questionable.

Given that present programs are emphasizinguse of trained "empiricas"
(rural midwives) for attendingrural mothers during pregnancyand child-
birth, it follows that it is not necessarilyrequired to supply 100%
professionally-assisted births.
 - 59 -

nation-wide (average) figure of 65%. The other indicator refers to the

terminal point of the life-cycle: classification of death statistics as
covered by the health system. 1/ If the number of deaths registered by the
health care system in a given period is divided between those that received
medical certification (both those having received medical attention before
death as well as those where only certification of death was performed) and
deaths that received no certification (nor medical attention prior to death),
a gross indicator of coverage in a "broad" interpretation of the concept can
be built. The ratio of medically certified deaths to total registered deaths
is approximately 66% on a nation-wide basis, and varies regionally in a way
that is consistent with alternative health coverage indicators. In a narrower
interpretation, considering professionally attended deaths as a percentage of
total certified deaths, the figure goes down to 59% for the country as a whole. 2/

149. Thus, different components of the coverage vector lead to a degree

of coverage of the population estimated to be on the order of 60-66% for
Paraguay. It indicates in a gross but illustrative manner that the aggregate
health supply condition is unsatisfactory if judged by official expectations
and proper goals of Paraguay's policy makers themselves.

(ii) Public Sector Programs and Institutional Constraints

150. Paraguay's health care system is organized under guidelines

provided by the National Health Care Coordination Council and includes the
following institutions: MSPBS, IPS, the Military Health System, the Police
Health Care Office, and the National University of Asuncion (UNA). The
services of the private health subsector are limited, and services are
concentrated in Asuncion.

151. In 1976 the per capita health budget expenditure of Paraguay was
on the order of US$5.33. Expressed in comparable (purchasing power parity)
US$ in about the same reference year Peru spent US$23.34 per person, Uruguay
US$23.93, Colombia US$12.92, Ecuador US$17.25 and Chile US$27.00. 3/ The
Ministry of Health's share of total budgeted expenditures for the central
government has increased somewhat in recent years. In 1980, however, public
expenditures devoted to the health area by the central government were not

1/ Registrations and certifications here are subject to different degrees

of bias depending on the type of community involved. It is probably
the case that the statistics are less biased in Asuncion and other big
cities, as well as in small towns of the interior, and that they are
less reliable for communities and settlements spreading in the peripheries
of large cities and towns, where district and municipal limits are not
well defined.

2/ Data presented in Table 17 show the variance in percentages from 88% in

Asuncion to 41%-43% in health regions I, II, VI.

3/ Source: World Bank Staff Working Paper 412, "Health Problems and
Policies in the Developing Countries", (August 1980), Washington, D.C.
 - 60 -

more than 0.6% of GDP, among the lowest shares in Latin America, where the
range is from 0.6% for Haiti to 3.1% for Jamaica. This share goes up consid-
erably if the health expenditurecomponentsin the social securityorganiza-
tions, mainly IPS, are included. But even includingthese outlays,which are
earmarked to benefit only specific categoriesof affiliatedworkers,with
an urban and upper middle-classbias, the total share of GDP devoted to health
was only on the order of 1.6% for 1980.

152. By far the main responsibilityfor provision of health services lies

with MSPBS, which is the institutionresponsiblefor carrying out promotionand
preventionactivitieson a nation-widebasis. The MSPBS has divided the
country into ten health care regions (regiones sanitarias)with the aim of
"self-sufficiency" regarding to the most common health problems (Map page 62).
A new regi6n sanitaria is presentlybeing consideredwith San Pedro as the
head city and covering part of present health region IV and some of region IV.
The purpose of this subdivisionand introductionof a new health region is
to achieve a better link between service units, health programs, and the
residentpopulation there. The "referral system" is the conceptualbasis
of the local, regional and nationalnetwork of the health services organiza-
tion. At the base of this system is the "health post", the lowest service
level, usually consistingof a consultingroom without hospitalization
facilitiesand manned by a public health aide capable of supplying first
aid and immunizationservices. The next higher level is the "health care
center", in principle set to cover from 2,000 to 20,000 inhabitants,and
to be staffed by one or two medical practitioners,a medical degree candidate,
nurses and other aides. The staffing structurementioned is still at the
level of plans and has not yet been implemented.

153. The highest service level in each region is the Regional Health
Care Center, handling populationsof from 20,000 to 100,000 inhabitants. This
high-levelservice covers resident populationsplus referrals from the afore-
mentioned lower levels. The staff would ideally include medical, dental,
nursing,obstetrical,laboratoryand X-ray personnel. It would have a capacity
of 30-50 beds.

154. Finally, specializedhealth care servicesas well as complex

surgicalattentionwould be provided at the superiorlevel hospitalsbased in
Asuncion, including those of UNA and IPS.

155. The National Health Plan (1976-1980)described regional health

areas II and VI as presentingthe lowest degrees of coverage. On the basis
of the diagnosisin the Plan and of subsequentrevisions,the following
order of prioritieswas establishedfor the coverage expansion programs:

Health region VI (includingthe departmentsof Caaguazu and Canendiyu);

Health region IV (includingthe departmentof Concepcion);
Health region X (includingthe departmentof Amambay);
Health region XI (includingthe departmentof San Pedro);
Health region II (includingthe departmentsof Guaira and Caazapa); and
Health region IX (includingAlto Parana).
 - 61 -

Official targets under IDB-supported health service expansion programs are

to expand the reach to rural and dispersed population, the colonization areas
being supported by rural development projects, and projects in some of the
developing frontier zones.

156. The overall coverage range of programs under the projects already in
execution (IDB) is roughly one million inhabitants. Of these, about
40% had no previous coverage at all, and it is expected that by 1985 coverage
in these health regions will average about 87%. These programmes imply the
need of about 200 additional public health employees (doctors, nurses, etc.).
Already forthcoming in the budget of 1980 were one hundred positions, and the
remaining one hundred are expected to be created in the near future. Currently,
under its coverage expansion program MSPBS is building, remodeling and expand-
ing health centers and health posts in the departments of Itapua, Paraguari,
Coaguazi, Alto Parana and San Pedro.

157. Public health planners are planning the launching of a second

coverage extension program starting in 1982; this time including projects
for health regions I, III, V, VII and VIII. The overall financial effort
of this projected second program is roughly equivalent to the present one:
some US$12 million (1979 US$). The specific content of the projects considered
in these coverage extension programs are more-or-less in line with the idea of
emphasizing the use of intermediate technology under the operational guide-
lines of the "referral system": emphasis is being placed in the construction
of health posts in areas with less than 2,000 inhabitants; volunteers are
being recruited in large numbers and oriented to small communities of 200
inhabitants; educational manuals have been prepared; and a close integration
between health post directors and health volunteers working in the area
is being pursued.

158. Two main limitations have appeared in the initial stages of imple-
mentation of the first expansion program: (i) considerable delays in the
construction of the health posts and health centers, and (ii) important delays
and bottlenecks in the training components because of planning errors in the
estimates for educational materials (financial requirements costs for these
ended up considerably underestimated).

159. The principal structural limitation of the coverage extension

programs resides, however, in the area of sanitation. Public health planners
in charge of health service programs are presently aware of the fact that
coverage extension efforts will be relatively fruitless in lowering infant
mortality rates and in lowering the incidence of infectious and parasitic
diseases, unless SENASA is capable pari passu of extending coverage
of safe water and sewerage services in the same areas.

(iii) Selected Policy Issues

160. It is important to focus on the significant variance shown by

various health indicators on a regional basis in order to understand one of
the main policy issues for the present decade: expansion of service units and
health programs into the neediest regions. Although the country has been
divided into ten "health regions" to organize the delivery of health services
in a more efficient way and to achieve maximum possible coverage, it is still
the case that Asuncion and health region V concentrate most of the resources
and show the better health indices.
 IBRD 15855
JUNE 1981

BO LI V I A PARAGUAY

- - -~'~- / HEALTH REGIONS

*1 . > >\iiLS Health Regions

/ tS Cities
o~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
7 ) - - Health RegionBoundories
t- .- International Boundaries

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N.
A RG E N T I N A

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Coronel
(
7ASUN 4 (
K~
ASUNCION~ Oviedo 1 Pd¶e, 4.
/ 4 a. g . f Stroessner

e . g | t | t N X Y - 0 . 5- -
OCaozapa

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et, apttt, m p dr t,ot ttop4at the pett at OttOWaoddheck. tad to
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 - 63 -

161. One of the important conclusions arising out of a comparison of

mortality rates and morbidity rates across health regions is that significant
regional imbalances exist between the supply cum effectiveness of health
services and the demand for health services. The range of certified deaths as
a percentage of total registered deaths in each region goes from 45% for
health region VIII (Chaco) to 90% for Asuncion (Table 17). The lowest percent-
ages are found in health regions VIII, II, III and VI. Similarly, a large
variance is observed for the percentage of professionally assisted births,
ranging from only 46.3% in health region I up to 82.2% in health region V.
Another indicator of variance is found in the death rate (tasa de defuncion)
observed for children 1 to 4 years old across health regions: the lowest rate
is found in Asuncion, an intermediate value in health region II, and the
highest rate in health region I.

Table 17: Health Coverage Indicators by Regional Health Areas, 1977

(Percentages)

Health Area

I II III IV V VI VII VIII Country

Asun- Inte-
A cion rior

Professionally
assisted births 46.3 53.5 82.2 65.1

Medically certified
deaths (attended 56 46 53 70 90 68 55 73 45 66
and unattended by
the health services
as percentage of
total registered
deaths.)

Attended certified
deaths as per-
centages of total
certified deaths 41 43 70 58 88 44 42 54 60 59

Normalized Infant Mortality Rates

Percentage
Deviation
From Average
Rate* -1.8 21.8 0.8 29.8 -25.6 -1.2 34.1 -8.5 -18.4 0.0

* Negative figures indicate regional area rate is below national average rate.

Source: Estadisticas Vitales y Sanitarias 1960-1978; MSPBS, Asuncion,

Paraguay.
 - 64 -

162. Perhapsone of the most importantindicatorsof the different

state of "need" in the regionsis the comparisonof infant mortalityrates,
which in the interiorareas are seven points higher than the nationalaverage,
and in Asuncion,twenty-sixpoints less than the average. Table 17 indicates
that the worse situationsat presentin relationto the countryaverage are
in health regions II, III, IV, and VI. Especiallylarge deviationsare
observedin health regionsIV (Concepcion.) and VI (CoronelOviedo.). These
two regionswould appear to demand specialattentionfrom the public health
planners.

163. An alternativeuseful indicatorof variancein the state of need is

the incidenceof diarrheaas cause of death across regions (Table 18). For
the countryas a whole, close to 14X of all deathsare caused by diarrhea.
The incidenceclimbs from one health region to anotherin a way that is
closelycorrelatedwith the rural characterof the region concerned. Again,
health regionsIV and VI stand out in termsof the distribution.

Table 18: Incidence(percentage)of Diarreah,Pneumonia-Influenza,

Heart Diseasesand Tuberculosisin Death Causes,
by RegionalHealth Area (1977)

Regional
Health Area I II III IV V VI VII VIII Country
Death Cause AsuncionInterior

Diarrhea 14.3 10.2 13.7 19.9 8.0 14.0 18.3 17.3 16.2 13.6
Pneumonia- Influenza 8.2 3.9 10.7 8.9 4.9 10.2 9.4 12.7 13.1 8.2
Heart Diseases 10.5 7.4 7.9 8.1 15.9 10.0 7.0 11.5 8.0 10.4
TBC 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.3 2.2 1.0 1.6

Source: MSPBS.

164. The highestprioritiesfor healthaction appear to be signalled

by the conditionsdescribedin health regionsIV and VI. It is of interest
to note that most of the indicatorsconsistentlyshow those two health
areas to be the worst off in terms of relativehealth standards. These
areas have been identifiedas priorityones in the coverageexpansion
programscurrentlybeing designed.
 - 65 -

165. As in other public areas, one of the main constraints affecting

health services is the availability of human resources. A diagnosis of the
human resources operating in the health services area must consider the
kind of personnel available and the regional and institutional distribution
of that personnel. The 1974 Censo Nacional de Recursos Humanos is the most
important study performed to date in the area of human resources of the
health services system. Some of the main conclusions of the Censo are still
of interest.

166. One of the important observations of the Censo is the fertile

field in Paraguay for enhanced use of intermediate technology in the health
area. The hypothesis is that ample room exists for providing various
medical and health services using nurses, nurse-practitioners, health
auxiliaries and other middle-range health technicians trained to provide
routine examinations and health treatment and to practice preventive medicine.
Among the several advantages of this approach are that middle-range techni-
cians are less costly to train than physicians, they are much less likely
to emigrate abroad, and they are more easily settled in rural areas having
priority needs. One of the conclusions of the Censo described the present
condition as one where "there existed more captains than soldiers" (see
graph, pp. 66), indicating the need to alter training policy by reinforcing the
promotion of intermediate and auxiliary personnel. The Censo study pointed
out that the existence of important deficits of technical personnel imposed a
heavy limitation on the productivity of professional health care personnel.

167. Census figures indicated also that the extension of coverage and
the effectiveness of health programs were limited by the inadequate distribu-
tion of personnel. The information presented in Table 19 describes the
distribution of all types of health personnel by regional departments. The
significant variance of the index, ranging from 111.7 per 10,000 inhabitants
in Asuncion to 4.3 in Pdte. Hayes, clearly shows the relative disadvantage
rural departments. Among the factors determining the relatively few numbers
of health personnel operating in the rural areas are: (i) the low salaries
paid, (ii) the unattractiveness of living in the rural areas, and (iii) the
absence of an efficient nexus between the location of the training programs
and the localities where health personnel are most needed. The census study
concluded that the psycho-biological and social characteristics of Paraguay's
population, emphasizing the social organization of small communities each
having relative autonomy, required the presence of trained health auxiliaries
having close links with the communities themselves. In fact, one of the key
elements of the future development of effective health coverage is the promo-
tion of intermediate health technology through the use of community-based
volunteers, health auxiliaries and health practitioners.
 - 66 -

MATRIX OF HUMAN RESOURCES, HEALTH SERVICES AREA (1974)

University Graduates 3.470

Technicians 1 X

/Ai

Auxiliaries |2.852
 - 67 -

Table 19: HEALTH PERSONNEL PER 1000 INHABITANTS DISTRIBUTED BY REGIONAL

DEPARTMENTS,1974

Area Population Total Health Rate

Personnel (0/0000)

ASUNCION 424411 4739 111.7

Concepci6n 118221 209 17.7.

San Pedro 150473 210 14.0

Cordillera 211948 246 11.6

Guaira 136069 232 17.1

Caaguazu 221208 261 11.8

Caazapa 112404 148 13.2

Itapua 219665 301 13.7

Misiones 75622 130 17.2

Paraguari 231239 255 11.0

Alto Parana 78966 192 24.3

Central 338450 450 13.3

Neembucu 79738 113 14.2

Amnamnbay 70992 170 23.9

Canendiyu 26494 59 22.3

Pte. Hayes 46042 20 4.3

Alto Paraguay 16462 45 27.3

Chaco 699 1 14.3

Nueva Asunci6n 221 2 90.5

Boquer6n 12861 54 42.0
Country Totals 2572185 7837 30.4
 - 68 -

Table 20: Health Personnal by Profession, 1974-80

1980 1/
1974-1980 Inhabitants
Average Annual per Health
1974 1980 Growth Rates Service
(CensusData) (Estimates) (M) Personnel (#)

Doctors 1173 1700 6.3 1824

Dentists 643 855 4.9 3626
Biochemists 279 400 6.2 7750
Veterinarydoctors 354 546 7.5
Pharmacists 614 860 5.8 3605
Licensed nurses 131 336 17.0 9226
Licensed obstetricians 78 224 19.2 13839
Nurses 260 430 8.7 7209
Obstetricians 264 386 6.5 8031
Nurse auxiliaries 1827 2300 3.9 1348
Other health technicians 991 1380 5.7 2246

I/ These figures are computedusing a figure of 3.1 million for estimated

total 1980 population.

Source: Censo Nacional de Recursos Humanos 1974, and 1980 estimatesmade

by the MSPBS's Office of Human Resources.

168. Growth of health personnelwas relativelyimportant in the six-

year period between 1974 and 1980, although it proceededfrom rather
low base figures. Inter-countrycomparisonson availabilityof health
personnelper capita, however, show that Paraguay'spopulationstill is in
a rather inadequateposition. Consideringa total populationestimated at
3.1 million (recentofficial estimate of CELADE-STP)for 1980, and consider-
ing the estimates of health servicespersonnel from MSPBS's Office of Human
Resources,the followingcomparativeratios appear:

Table 21: Inter-countryHealth PersonnelComparisons

Populationper Populationper
Country Physician Nurse/Midwife

Paraguay 1,824 1,012 *

Peru 1,800 2,370
Costa Rica 1,550 570
Brazil 1,660 7,070
Chile n.a. 420

* This ratio climbs to 4,047 inhabitantsper nurse/midwife,if the

2,300 existingnurse-auxiliariesare excludedfrom the denominator.

Source: World Bank Health Sector Policy Paper.

 - 69 -

169. Another important dimension of the health resources problem refers

to the distribution of personnel by institutions operating in the sector
(Table 22). It is of interest to note that although IPS serves no more
than 7% of the population, 27% of all doctors, 30% of all dentists, 24% of
all obstetricians, and 1l1% of all nurses are concentrated in IPS.

170. These figures can be comaparedto those relevant for the MSPBS
and then analyzed in terms of the extension of coverage and orientation of
services of the health programs developed by both institutions. From the
qualitative evidence and interviews it appears that IPS-s health beneficiaries
come primarily from the urban higher-income groups as compared to the wider
coverage and orientation of the services supplied by the MSPBS.

171. The main bottlenecks that have prevented a more equitable distribu-
tion of health personnel by institutions and regions are limitations asso-
ciated with the question of salaries. Approximately 34% of all doctors in
the country work full or part time under the health organization of the MSPBS.
Furthermore, two-thirds of the doctors hired by the MSPBS are concentrated
in Asuncion, and about one third of these have three or more work places or
jobs, a fact which lowers the quality of unitary services.

172. A doctor working full time with the MSPBS in Asuncion is paid
a monthly salary on the order of US$400-US$500. If hired to work in some
of the regional health centers of the rural areas, the doctor is paid the
referred salary plus a "residence premium" of US$100. The salary premium is
inadequate for attracting enough medical personnel and for minimizing turnover.
Fees charged for health service deliveries are merely nominal: 50 guaranies
allowed as the maximum public fee, compared to private health services charges
on the order of 2,000 guaranies per unit.

173. Two important policy issues have to be confronted by the health

planners are the need for raising average salaries paid to public health
services personnel, and the importance of establishing an adequately
graduated scale of payments introducing both seniority and greater differentia-,
tion in salaries according to objective functional categories. At present, no
well established seniority criterion exists in salary categories at the MSPBS.
This is aggravated by the existence of too little differentiation of salaries
according to hierarchy and training: if the pay of a statistical assistant
working for MSPBS is assigned a value of 100, a low-level doctor gets the
equivalent of 164 and a hospital director 220.

174. Another human resources issue where concentration of effort is

needed refers to the recruiting, training and direction of health personnel
working at what health authorities call "the primary levels". Within the
health programs, this means reaching the population with the least resources
and in the least accessible areas. This effort is clearly geared to the
achievement of coverage goals. The crucial type of personnel here is the
health service "volunteer", who is identified as a primary-level health worker
capable of performing house visits in relatively population-dispersed locali-
ties and covering at least the following functions: (a) compilation of vital
 -70-

Table 22: DISTRIBUTION OF HEALTH PERSONNEL BY HEALTH INSTITUTIONS

Institutions Doctors Dentists Obstetricians Nurses

Ministry of Public Health 431 115 209 (x) 119 (xx)

and Welfare
Social Security Institute 381 89 70 lx) 20

Hospital de Clinicas 409 5 4 28.

Military Health 121 57 5 13

Police Health 88 30 6 4

(x) Includes university graduates and technical level.

(xx)lncludes university graduates nurses and technical

level nurses.
 - 71 -

statistics (births, pregnancies, and deaths); (b) identification of the

incidence of key sicknesses such as diarrhea and fever from paludism;
(c) provision of simple medication against such cases as those indicated in
(b); (d) administration of simple vaccinations; and (e) referrals to the
relevant health posts.

175. In a similar vein, the traditional work of the MSPBS with

practicing midwives should be reinforced and fully integrated with the
primary programs oriented to the training of health volunteers. These cate-
gories represent the most useful ones for a rural country like Paraguay, in
need of expanding coverage through the use of intermediate and cost-effective
health technology.

D. Sanitation: Safe Water and Sewerage Services

(i) General Indicators

176. Paraguay has one of the highest rates of morbidity caused by water-
related diseases in Latin America. The infant mortality rates are highly
correlated with the sanitation problems observed in the country. The health
section of this report points out that life expectancy in Paraguay is influenced
by the high levels of morbidity and mortality caused by infectious and parasitic
diseases. The most vulnerable groups in this respect are children under 15
years of age, and especially, children under 5 years. Also affected are child-
bearing women.

177. Health statistics reveal only partially the incidence of water-

related diseases. For 1975-80, life expectancy was estimated at 64 years and
infant mortality at a high 89 per 1,000 live births (compared to 50 per 1,000
in Colombia, 55 in Chile and 43 in Uruguay). As reported by MSPBS, enteric and
diarrheal diseases were the second major cause of death for all ages in 1976..
These diseases were also among the five major causes of hospitalization. The
following data summarize present conditions in the provision of safe water
and sanitation services.
 - 72 -

Table 23: Sanitation Services

a. Coverage of Water Supply Services

(estimates as of 1980)

Percent of
population No. of
Covered Inhabitants

1. Safe Water House Connections 18%

2. Public Standpipes 4%

Total Population served

by 1. or 2. 22% 664,600

b. Sanitation Services and Coverage

(estimates as of 1980)

Percent of population
Covered

3. Sewerage Services 11%

4. Other forms of Excreta

Disposal

4.a Latrines 54%

4.b Septic Tanks 26%

Source: Mission estimates.

178. These figures indicate that safe water supply provided via house
connections is as low as 18%, and that water borne sewerage services only
cover 11% of the total population. The variance in safe water coverage is
high when comparing the present situation of urban areas, Gran Asuncion, and
rural areas. The coverage ratios defined in terms of the areas of influence
of the relevant public agencies show these variances in an eloquent way. With
respect to the universe of population under the area of influence of CORPOSANA
(largely urban population), estimates show an average coverage ratio on the
order of 39-41%, ranging from 58% in the Gran Asuncion area to only 11% for
cities located in the interior.

179. As for SENASA, the public agency providing safe water services to
basically rural communities (towns and settlements having less than 4,000
 - 73 -

inhabitants), coverage is of the order of 10% 1/. These figures reveal that
some progress has been achieved in coverage during the last three years,
given that previous sectoral studies had estimated in 1978 a 5% coverage for
SENASA's services.

180. A more detailed analysis of excreta disposal services shows

that for population under SENASA's jurisdiction no significant recent
progress has been achieved, given that the percentage of rural population
having no sanitary system of excreta disposal remains virtually unchanged at
85% noncovered since 1978. Out of the households controlled by CORPOSANA,
approximately two-thirds would dispose of excreta by the use of latrines.

181. The situation as described reveals both an insufficient pro-

vision of services, and an exaggerated variance in the sanitation conditions
of urban vis a vis rural households. Thus, progress still has to be made
towards achieving the set of goals established in the Plan Decenal de Salud
Para las Americas (1972), goals which Paraguay subscribed as its own
official policy: "in the urban sector, to provide 80% of the population with
house-connected water supply or to reduce by 50% the population without this
service; in the rural areas, to provide 50% of the population with piped
distribution of water or to reduce by 30% the present population without this
service" 2/.

182. SENASA did not start investing in water supply for rural areas
until 1976. As a result of this late start, service coverages are still
extremely low. Asuncion, in turn, has benefited from about 85% of CORPOSANA's
sector investments for urban areas in the last nine years. The rest of the
urban areas, harboring about 55% of the urban population, have received only
15% of CORPOSANA's investments. As a result, people living in urban areas
outside Asuncion have, for the most part, no access to piped water. Although
no comprehensive plan has yet been developed, present investment programs have
been designed to partly remedy the unbalanced distribution of past sector
investments.

183. CORPOSANA regularly monitors water quality only in Asuncion,

where the quality of water is satisfactory; two other urban systems under
CORPOSANA using surface water do not have systematic quality control. The
remaining 20 urban public water systems use groundwater, which is chlorinated
and of acceptable quality. Most private wells, on the contrary, are unsatis-
factorily constructed and present high risks of contamination.

1/ The quoted 10% figures depend for their realization on the final completion
of on-going programs. By November 1980 approximately 50% of works considered
in the chronogram of these projects had already completed the execution phase.

2/ Plan Decenal de Salud para las Americas (Santiago, 1972) incorporated

into Paraguay's National Health Plan 1976-1980.
 - 74 -

184. A comparison of the present coverage figures of safe water services

in Paraguay with average prevailing coverage ratios for Latin America and the
Caribbean (54% coverage in the case of house connections), and with those for
other developed and less developed regions in the world, shows the relatively
disadvantaged position of Paraguay's population.

Table 24: Percentage of Population with Reasonable Access-/ to Safe Water-/

Urban Rural Total

Region House Public
Connection Hydrant Total

Africa 29 39 68 11 21
Latin America and
the Caribbean 59 17 76 24 54
Eastern Mediterranean 3/ 58 26 84 18 33
Europe 50 23 73 44 55
Southeast Asia 36 17 53 9 17
Western Pacific 65 10 75 21 40

Weighted Average 49 19 68 14 29

1/ "Reasonable access" is defined as follows: in urban areas, within

200 m of a public hydrant; in rural areas, sufficiently close so that
family members do not spend a disproportionate part of the day in
fetching water.

2/ "Safe water" includes treated surface water or untreated but uncon-

taminated water such as that from springs, protected boreholes, or
sanitary wells. Other waters of doubtful quality are classified as
unsafe.

3/ Three countries only: Algeria, Morocco, Turkey.

Source: IBRD, Village Water Suppl; (Table 1-2)

(ii) Government Programs, Past Investments and Sector Objectives

185. The main institution operating in the sanitation area is CORPOSANA,

created by law No. 244 of October 25, 1954. It was established as a semi-
autonomous organization attached to the Ministry of the Interior but with
its own administration, organization, and resources. It has a general admin-
istrative council, a central management, and 7 departments: administration,
financing, production and distribution of safe water for Asuncion, techni-
cal, economic and financial planning, provision of services to the interior,
and sewerage. The main original objective of CORPOSANA was the provision of
safe water and sewerage services to the city of Asuncion. Since 1965
 - 75 -

CORPOSANA's responsibility was extended to all communities of more than

4,000 inhabitants. These communities were generally considered to be urban
and, excluding Asuncion, roughly represent 20% of total population in Paraguay.

186. Law 369, drafted in 1972, created SENASA, a twin institution

to CORPOSANA. SENASA's main purposes are to plan, promote, execute and
supervise the sanitation services provided to population centers with less
than 4,000 inhabitants. In order to reach this objective, five goals were
established at the outset:

(a) to secure the participation of communities for financing, construc-

tion and general administration of sanitation activities through
the creation of Sanitation Committees ("Juntas de Saneamiento");

(b) to set technical standards;

(c) to establish the necessary contracts for technical assistance with

national and international agencies;

(d) to regulate financing, operations, and maintenance activities

where relevant; and

(e) to coordinate its activities with related public institutions,

mainly the National Institute of Technology and Standardization
(INTN), CORPOSANA, IDM, and OPACI.

187. Annual sector investments in 1970-79 averaged US$9.0 million in 1980

prices. In addition to being low in relation to needs investment was un-
balanced geographically. Sector investments until 1975 were undertaken only
by CORPOSANA, with Asuncion receiving a disproportionately high share of the
total. Since 1976, CORPOSANAhas gradually increased the investment share
for other urban areas, and SENASA has slowly started to invest in water
systems for rural areas. Through SENASA's concentrated action, projects
currently in execution, water supply systems are being built to benefit
approximately 200,000 inhabitants in the Central Cordillera, Paraguari,
San Pedro, Alto Parana, Caegiuaza, Guaira, Caazapa, Itapua, Miciones and
Neembuen departments.

188. External financing has played an important role in almost all sector
investment programs implemented during the past 10 years. External lenders
have been the EXIMBANK, USAID, IDB, and, since 1977, the IBRD and KfW for
rural areas and UNICEF for rural dispersed populations (under 400 inhabitants).

189. Lack of adequate sector planning has resulted in the absence of

long- or medium-term investment programs. Programs developed independently by
each sector institution appear unrelated to financial and absorptive capacities.
Furthermore, sector development has not yet been analyzed in a macro-economic
context. The recent creation of the Coordinating Committee and more active
participation of STP will provide the basis for the establishment of a
comprehensive sector investment program.
 - 76 -

190. A report produced in November 1980 by PAHO consultants and partially

financed by the IBRD project thoroughly analyzes the sector, identifies its
major constraints and proposes a ten-year investment program. It also proposes
a set of measures to overcome the most pressing constraints to sector development.
This report was prepared with the active participation of the STP, CORPOSANA
and SENASA and is now under Government consideration.

191. The proposed investment program, with a cost of about US$210 million
equivalent in 1979 prices, would require average annual investments of about
US$20 million, or a 230% increase over average annual sector investments
during the past decade.

(iii) Investment Cost Estimates

192. Yearly investment requirements are taken from the PAHO report. For
CORPOSANA they represent the necessary resources to raise coverage by 1990
to 67% of population under its jurisdiction and to 37% for sewerage. SENASA's
plans go only to 1985 and would achieve coverage with piped water of 14% of
the population under SENASA's jurisdiction.

193. Achievement of 100% coverage for water and sewerage for the popula-
tion under CORPOSANA's jurisdiction would cost an additional US$184 million
at 1979 prices. For SENASA, the report indicates additional investment of
US$134 million. Alternatively, in the case of SENASA, considering that out of
the 1.7 million of unserviced population, some 200,000 persons will be covered
in the near future with on-going projects already designed for 44 different
towns, some 1.5 million people would remain still uncovered throughout the
decade. SENASA's officials supplied an estimate US$100 per inhabitant as a
rough indicator of total average costs for safe water provision. This means
that an additional US$150 million would be required (1,500,000 x US$100) for
the ten-year period considered under the upper-bound norm of reaching full
coverage of safe water services in rural towns and settlements by 1990.
Alternative coverage goals in this area could be considered, altering the
trade-offs between sewerage, sanitary education, improvement of housing
standards, etc.

(iv) Institutional and Financial Constraints

194. In evaluating the bottlenecks for the increased provision of safe

water and sewerage services in Paraguay, one of the main limitations arises at
the level of the organizations themselves. It is important to focus briefly
on some of the main institutional problems prevailing in the area.

195. Starting with CORPOSANA, the oldest and largest agency, the first
problem noted is the "adding-up-of-functions syndrome" in the development of
the agency through time. One may distinguish at least five stages of added
responsibilities:
 -77-

Table 25: CORPOSANA and SENASA Investment

Plans as of 1980.

(In constant 1979 US$ million)

CORPOSANA SENASA TOTAL

1981 25.6 11.2 36.8

1982 38.2 12.9 51.1

1983 12.6 8.2 20.8

1984 27.1 7.5 34.6

1985 25.7 6.3 32.0

1986 13.3 13.3

1987 5.9 5.9

1988 5.7 5.7

1989 5.7 5.7

1990 4.4 4.4

Total 164.2 46.1 210.3

Source: PAHO et. al. "Propuestade Metas para la Decada 1980-90. Sector de
Abastecimientode Agua y Saneamiento".Asuncion, Paraguay Noviembre die
1980.
 - 78 -

1. the provision of safe water services for Asuncion;

2. the provision of sewerage and related sanitation services;

3. the provision of rainfall sewerage services;

4. the extension of services to all interior towns with more

than 4,000 inhabitants;

5. the present extension of services to several localities

having less than 4,000 inhabitants.

196. The addition of functions and responsibilities in a relatively short

period was not matched by a corresponding increase in management capacity or
in staffing. In fact, the human resource problem has been a limiting factor
for both CORPOSANA and SENASA.

197. In 1980, the sector employed about 1,500 people (1,046 in CORPOSANA,
392 in SENASA and 62 in private consulting firms). About 7% of them were
professionals, 60% technicians or white-collar workers, and the remaining 23%,
unskilled labor. Although the number of employees at CORPOSANA is not small
(one employee per 100 water and sewerage connections), the problem is avail-
ability of personnel at the intermediate and higher echelons. Uncompetitive
remuneration, especially when compared with employment opportunities in the
hydroelectric plants at Itaipu and Yacyreta, have affected adversely the
ability of the two main sector institutions to hire and retain qualified
professional staff.

198. UNA prepares professionals in the fields of civil and sanitary

engineering. Presently, about 60 professionals a year are graduated from the
six-year study program, of which about ten begin their professional careers
in the water supply and sanitation sector. About 20 specialized technicians
are trained at UNA'a Basic Sciences Institute each year. The PAHO report
(paragraph 190) indicates that this manpower preparation and training is
insufficient to accelerate sector development significantly; it recommends
that training activities, especially for second-line executives and specialized
technicians, be increased both at the University and at other technical train-
ing institutions.

199. Probably the dominant bottleneck preventing an efficient growth

of SENASA lies precisely in the area of human resources. In fact, actions
in the human resources area seem to be a high priority prerequisite for
improving SENASA's planning and operating activities. This leads directly
into the issue of recruiting policies and salaries paid. Since SENASA
is dependent on the MSPBS, the salaries paid by it have to be in line with the
structure of salaries within the MSPBS. These salaries are significantly out
of line with competing salaries paid in the private sector. An engineer
working for SENASA earns a third of the salary earned by his equivalent in the
private sector. Therefore there is a continuous lack of qualified personnel,
which becomes an important constraint for the development of new projects.
In fact, the Department of Studies and Projects had only one professional
preparing the technical files for the projects. Three engineers had left the
department in the course of 1980, causing serious problems in the technical
design of the KfW-sponsored project.
 - 79 -

200. Another area where personnel problems represent bottlenecks is in

the hiring of skilled workers for installing house connections. It is
difficult to procure on time the skilled workers needed in the different
localities. Highly qualified personnel for these tasks are hired at a salary
of 90,000 guaranies (US$714), while practitioners are employed at 45,000
guaranies (US$357). A promising sign in this area is the hiring of a special
consultant under the sponsorship of IBRD to design a rational human resources
policy for the institution, including a complete profile of personnel functions.
Measures such as these should be encouraged with urgency.

201. The manpower problems described also affect CORPOSANA, as reflected

in the planning and programming activities of the agency. In the area of
planning, CORPOSANA is suffering from as many problems as SENASA. No definite
cadastral survey of investment projects exists. There is, rather a piecemeal
approach to investment exercises. The need for CORPOSANA to improve its
planning of the sector can be illustrated by the fact that at present CORPOSANA
has an effective 180,000 m3 of capacity and it ex ects that additions to
capacity will eventually allow reaching 240,000 ms. But present capacity is
not fully utilized given two important bottlenecks: (a) the process of water
pumping has a maximum capacity for only 150,000 m3 , and (b) the filters have
3
a capacity for processing only up to 145,000 m . Projects to solve these
problems are currently being processed for support from IDB. Preparation of
these projects, however, has tn e technically improved as, for example,
several loan programs had oil consumption values fixed in nominal terms and
had disregarded the frequent hikes in the prices of oil.

202. There is no comprehensive financial policy for the sector as a

whole. Investments in urban areas have been undertaken without a definite
policy of recovery from users. Operating costs have been routinely subsidized.
SENASA, on the other hand, requires rural communities to provide 100% of
operating and maintenance costs, not less than a 10% initial contribution to
investments (part in cash and the remainder in labor and materials), and debt
service on a minimum of 10% of investment costs. These financial terms
are considered affordable by the larger rural communities but may have to be
softened for smaller communities with lower capacity to pay.

203. The PAHO report recommends that the question of a comprehensive

financial policy for the sector be addressed. The policy should include
harmonizing the policies of CORPOSANA and SENASA, particularly in relation
to the use of external resources. Furthermore, it should ensure that both
institutions charge tariffs sufficient to cover their operating, maintenance
and administrative costs and to obtain a suitable return to their investments.
An additional consideration when designing a financial policy for the sector
may be the need to subsidize users who cannot afford a minimum service level
by charging higher tariffs to high income, and to industrial and commercial
users.
 - 30 -

'04. x final caveat to -onsider ;s the fact that there are spillover
effects from the ac.lons of one institut`on to -he ocher. airst, CORPSI.NA
generates a kind of quality-standarddemonstrationeffect over :he communi-
ties demanding services. The high qualitv standards of safe water services
supplied by CORPOSANA are compared bv the communities Xo the lower standards
or thoseprovided by SENASA. This element of cOmDarisor.has induced seve-al
communitiesto request servizes from COR?OSANA rather than SENASA, whereas
they normallywould fall under the general influence area defined explicitly
for SENASA. Second is the case of rapidly growing communitieswith less than
4,000 inhabitants,which originallystart as SENASA's potential clients but
then reach an indefinitestatus where perhaps CORPOSANA is forced to intervene.
Clearly, a closer coordinationof the programs developed by both institutions
Wwouldaid the process of developmentof sanitationservices for the ?opulation
at large.

E. Conclusionsand Resource Recuirementsfor Exnansion of Social Services

205. Public expendituresrelated to the "basic provision of social services"

accounted for an estimated 2.3% of GD? in 1979, and for about 2.7%1of GDP in
1980. (The expectationsare for a minor rise in this share irn1981). Public
expendituresin basic social services (education,health and sanitation)
represented27% of tax revenuescollected by the Central Government in 1979,
and about 30% of tax collections in 1980. It is worth noticing that these
public institutionsincur relativelylarge administrativecosts that are only
loosely or indirectlyrelated to the final benefits received by the poou'lation.
:stimates for the 1981 budget exercise show, for example, that administrative
expendituresrepresent 17% of the gross outlays of the XSPBS and 30% of gross
outlays of CORPOSAZNA.

able 26: SelectedPublic Social Service Expendituresand their Relations

to Gross Domestic Product, 1979-80

1979 1980
million million
Agency guaranies % GDP guaranies , GDP

MOE 5,589 1.3 7,425 1.4

TNA 971 0.2 1,234 0.2
MSPBS 1,881 0.4 3,012 0.6
CORPOSANA 2,687 0.5 2,723 0.5

Total 2.5 2.7

Source: GovernmentAccounts
 - 81 -

206. Perhaps the single most important issue referringto the provision
of basic social services lies in the question of degree of coverage. As
described in each of the specializedsections above, the present coverage
ratios of the various servicesare low, if judged by the performanceof
countries of similar developmentand size. Table 27 depicts the prevailing
situation.

207. One of the main problems in the provision of basic social services
lies in the significantdifferences in the access of urban populationsas
compared to rural ones. Health, sanitationand educationmargins show large
variations in the values of each of the indicatorsacross departments or
regional divisions. Therefore, in almost all cases national averages are
not representativeof the prevailingconditionsof each of the areas or
regions.

208. The Governmenthas been pursuing increased efforts (especially

since the early seventies)in trying to develop plans, programs and projects
to deal with coverageexpansion and productivityimprovementfor the basic
social sectors. Alternativetargets may be advanced for the present decade,
ranging from achieving full coverage for each of the basic social services to
a combinationof coverage expansion plus efficiencyimprovement (for example,
increasingthe retentionrate of the primary school system).

209. Specific targets and working hypothesiswere developed in the

respectivesectionswith reference to (a) increased student places in the
primary school system in order to expand coverage,allow for new entrants
arising out of eligiblepopulationgrowth, raise the internalproductivityof
the system (increasethe retention rates), improve teacher'ssalaries and
provision of educationalmaterials; (b) gradual expansion of public health
expendituresso that by the end of the decade they reach a share of GDP more
in line with that observed in higher income countries;and (c) raise the
coverage of safe water services suppliedby CORPOSANA by a significantamount,
and bring the coverageof SENASA's safe water services to full coverage by the
end of the decade.

210. Table 28 shows the annual flow of incrementalexpendituresneeded in

each sector and as a group, in order to cope with the targets described. The
same table comparesthese requirementswith buoyancy estimates forthcomingout
of a relativelymoderate expansion path for tax revenue growth 1/. Receipts
from hydroelectricalrevenue sources are included,and other government
revenuesalso, in order to estimate the resources that would be left over
for the central government (after financing the special investmentsrequired
to meet the hypothesizedtargets) to finance all remainingcurrent expenditures,
capital expendituresand transfers,including the traditionalcurrent and
capital outlays by the social servicesministriesand agencies themselves.
The table indicates that the additionalresource requirementswould exceed
availabilitiesuntil 1985 when fiscal revenues from compensationpayments from
electricityproductionbegin to accrue. Thus, for the next four years Paraguay
would need to improve its tax effort above historicaltrends and/or resort to
external financing,if the projected expansion of social and other services is

I/ Alternativeprojectionsof fiscal resourcesare provided in Annex 2.

 -82-

:dble 27: SUSKARY OF SOCIAL COVFE2AGELNDICATORS

3asic Social Service Main ResponsiblePublic Agency Coverage Indicator

1. Comprehensiveor Overall Ministry of uabl4cHiealthand 60%-66%

w.ealthSertices Social Welfare
(?otentialcoverage by health
post, health center, or hospital)
1.l ProfessionallyAssisted 652
3irths as , of Total
Births

'.2 Attended Certified ieaths 59%

as % of Total Certified
Deaths

2. Literacy Rate Ministry of Education and Culture 84%

2.1 Urban Literacy " 33

2.2 Rural Literacy 78%

2. Net EnrollmentRates Ministry of Education and Culture

3.1 ?rimary Educaticn 33%'

3.1.1 UTrban 95%
3.1.2 Rural 76%

3.2 Secondary Education " 22%

3.3 Higher Education U. f. A. 7%(gross)

____~~~~~~~~~~~~---------
_________________________________ - - --- ---- --

4. Safe Water Services (house

connections)1/ Corposana and Senasa 18X

4,3.t Urban Corposana 39-41%

4.2 Rural Senasa 5S

5. Sewerage Services 2/ Corposana and Senasa 11%

5.1 Urban Coroosana

5.2 Rural Senasa 3t

7cotnotes: 1/ The national coverage figure is raised from 18.5to 41%7if water suppliedvia
public standpipes is included in provisions.

2/ Excreta disposal by way af the use of latrines is utilized by 54% of the

population,and the use of septic tank facilities covers another unknown
percentage.
Sources: See sections on health, education, sanitation.
 - 83 -

to be achieved. These calculationsmay be useful to planners and policymakers

for assessing the resourcemobilizationtask to be confrontedthroughoutthe
decade in case this combinationof moderate efforts is pursued.

211. The sectionson health, education and sanitationdescribe the

institutionaland administrativeproblems that have to be met pari passu
with on-going efforts and with new investmentprograms. It is the mission's
view that the manpower and managementproblems are the most urgent. Much of
the
nominal effort would be wasted if understaffingcontinues,if manpower in the
basic social services agencies continues to have inadequatetraining and
skills, and if incentivesand salaries are as low as they are now. A good
illustrationare the constraintscurrently in force for recruitingqualified
teachingpersonnel for rural primary and secondary schools. Necessary pre-
miums for attractingadequate personnel to these sectors may add significant
amounts to the recurrentexpendituresof the public agencies. In sum, a human
resource-focusedsocial developmentstrategy requires adequatehuman resource
policies (staffing,training,manpower planning) by the responsiblepublic
agencies.
 Tlbi. 2S: Additional Cuveriwent 1 Iguired jt tu H.'t UYitturw.t
UYIy.uthe3l ed 'otwAv"d

(wi1 I Jtl US4 it Io9/Y pi 1LLU)

1983 19U2 1983 19114 I9315

liu9 3912 I3Will 139S9 199U

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requic-d It% tU4-wt i 16. 5 16.6 16.2 16.1 16.8 9.2 1U.D 11.8 12.2 12.7

ho.penditwei
2.AJd1ti.o~.u1
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(As X ul pX r Dl:P) (1.21 (I.b) (3.6) (11.23 (0.4) 0.9 L.U 1.1 J.1, .2/
 - 85 -

ANNEX 1: Note on Paraguay's Statistics

1. Paraguayannational accounts estimates and other macroeconomicdata

are not reliable 1/, and the structuralchanges in the economy brought on by
fast growth and the importanceof external factors of the last few years most
probably are increasingthe unreliabilityof current estimates. No attempt
is made in this report to revise the existingdata, but some general observations
are made. This note discusses some of the problems in estimating the national
and the trade accounts and examines the statisticaltreatmentof the hydro-
electric projects.

I. National Accounts

2. The national accounts are prepared by the Central Bank's Department

of Economic Studies, NationalAccounts Division. Most of the data used by the
National AccountsDivision (prices,trade, productionindices)are developed
with the close cooperationof other divisions in the same department.

A. Production

3. The nationalaccounts in constantprices have recently been revised,

moving the base year from 1972 to 1977. The underlyingassumptionsand
input-outputcoefficientsin the determinantsof value added have, however,
remained unchanged,since only a mechanical rebasingwas made. For many
sectors, value added/grossproduction ratios developed in the early 1960's are
still used as the basis for determiningvalue added. Although estimates for
some sectors are based on recent annual sample surveys, the benchmark years
(1956 for agriculture,1963 for industry)are so far removed from present
productionmethods and land use that distortionsare inevitablyintroduced.

4. Estimationsof value added in agricultureare based on a 1956 agri-

culture census, a 1961 survey, and annual sample surveys of output and yield
indicatorscovering the whole country since 1970. Although these annual
agriculturalsurveys (EncuestaAgropecuariapor Muestreo) may provide accurate
estimates of gross output movements, the reliabilityof the estimate of value
added derived from them is questionablebecause of the lack of recent informa-
tion on productionmethods. It is likely that with modern agri-business
techniques,the value added/grossoutput ratios have changed,and thus the
input-outputratios may no longer be applicable. The need for more accurate
estimatesof yields, intermediateconsumption,and prices cannot be overem-
phasizedin this sector, given its importancein the economy and its rapidly
changing nature.

1/ An unpublishedinput-outputmatrix preparedwith outside assistance

at the Central Bank found that for 1972 final demand exceeded the
nationalaccounts estimate by 60%. No efforts to reconcile the
discrepancieshave been made.
 - 86 -

5. Estimates of manufacturingvalue added are based on the industrial

censuses of 1935 and 1963. As with the agriculturalsector, changes in
industrialproductionmethods during the last 20 years are not adecuately
taken into account, since the input/outputratios aDolied to gross oroductron
are so out-dated. Yearly estimates are based on questionnairessent to the
main industriescovering, in some cases, a small fraction of the universe.
The methods throtgh which these are `'blown-ip" to get the total in specific
subsectorsare ad hoc and not likelv to be consistentover time. Other
indicators,such as data on exports and imports are util2zed, but their
also has weaknesses,given, in turn, the problems with unregisteredtrade
(paragraph17).

6. Transportationis another sector in -wnichthe substantialorice

changes of petroleum products have surely altered the input!/oututratios.
This deficiencyis especiallynotable For Oaraguay, where expenditureson
petroleum are an important component of the sector's costs, because the price
of petroleum products in the country is well above internationaloil prices.
Moreover, the current-priceseries for transportservices is derived by
inflating the constant-pr4ceseries by the cost-of-livingindex. Even though
the CPI may be a reasonabledeflator 'or the personal services or public
administrationand defense sectors, a more realistic inflator that more fully
reflects the actual costs (equipment,petroleum,wages) of the sector should
be used. The present system has Drobably tended to underescimatevalue added
at current prices in the transportationsector.

7. sectcr _s eszi=a_et on the basis of

Gross output in the constructi_4n
square meters of constructionand other proxy indicators,such as the produccion
and import of constructionmaterials. The growth of these physical indicators
is then applied to a constant-pricebase year, and a fixed value added/gross
output ratio determinesvalue added. The constantprice series so dertied is
then inflatedby a price index composed of domestic and imported construction
materials. This procedure has several weaknesses:

(1) Input/outputratios used are based on productionmethods from

1963, the cormon problem that also plagues ocher sectors.

(2) Estimates of constructionactivity are based on new construction,

measured by square meters of building space, and by the other
above-mentionedindicatorsof constructionactivity. This
informationis obtained from building permits issued in princi-
pal cities and from materials productionand import statistics.
Constructioncarried out by public sector entities is directly
obtained from the respectiveagencies. As Paraguay's land
area under culcivationhas been increasingrapidly,so have
deforestationand land reclamation. These activities are not
being captured in the statistics, thus resulting in under-
estimation of constructionactivity. This is another instance
of a change in the product mix, a rapidly increasingphenomenon
in Paraguay.
 - 87 -

(3) The use of an inflatorbased solely on the price of construction

materials (as is presently the case) could be improvedupon.
An improved inflatorwould be a weighted combinationof both
constructionmaterials prices and wages and salaries in the
constructionsector.

(4) Activity at the hydroelectricprojects directly affects the

constructionsector, but the present estimationmethods do not
attempt to reflect it fully. This problem is discussed in more
detail in Section 3.

8. Measurementof utilities output poses no particularproblems. Elec-

tricity value added is estimated on basis of the 1963 IndustrialCensus and
informationfrom ANDE. Electricityusage in current prices provided by ANDE
is deflated by the cost-of-livingindex to produce the constant series. Water
and sanitationvalue added is estimated from informationprovided by CORPOSANA.
Figures in current prices are deflated by the cost-of-livingindex.

9. Value added in commerce is estimated from data developedby the

National AccountsDivision itself. After allowance for auto-consumption
is made, a 30% commercializationvalue is calculatedfrom gross domestic
productiondata. The same margin of retail trade is also calculatedfor
FOB exports and CIF imports. A few points of caution should be noted in
these estimates,because the commercialsector is a reflectionof the general
level of economicactivity in the country. As noted above, not only are
agricultureand industrylikely to be underestimated,but exports and imports
are also underestimated. The importanceof commerce (approximately25% of
GDP) underscores the need for accurate estimates in other sectors of the
national accounts. Financial services are also includedin the commercial
sector, which includesbanks, insurance and savings and investmententerprises.
Estimatingproceduresfor value added of financial servicesprobably need to
be updated given the changes that are also taking place in the financial system,
such as the growing importanceof exchange houses and non-bank financial
intermediaries.

10. Public administrationand defense, taken from the governmentbudget,

pose no particularmethodologicalproblems. Wages and salariespaid to
governmentemployees (currentvalue added) are deflated by the cost-of-living
index to obtain a constant price series.

II. The servicessector in the national accounts consists of education,

health, household and other services (hotels,bars, cinemas, laundry, etc.).
Education and health estimates are based on informationprovidedby the
official agencies in the respectivesubsector.Household or domestic services,
which are relativelylarge within the subsector,are estimatedon the basis of
informationfrom the 1963 economic census, with ensuing years determinedby
the rate of growth of the main known componentsof the services sector.
Improved estimateswould require an update of the 1963 economic census.
 - 88 -

12. Sousing data 7enerated from -he 1972 Population and Housing Census
are used by the National Accounts Division to estimate value added in this
sector. To determine the grcwth rate of housing, both population growth and
the increment in residentialhousing are applied to the base vear value
added figure.

B. Exaenditure

13. GDP by industrialorigin is taken to the expenditure side of

the national accountswith all of the preceding shortcomings. T'heNational
Accounts Division svnthesizesdata from the balance of payments for
exports and imports, investment,and public consumption,leaviag private
consumptionas a residual.

14. Fixed investmentis estimated by summing expenditureson (I) con-

struction, (2) domestic and imported transport ecui=ment, (3) communica-
tions equipment,and (4) machines and other equipment. Changes in stocks
are calculatedonly for livestock. As shown above, constructionhas been
under-valued,and thereforefixed investmentis also undervalued. Even so,
estimated fixed investmentin constructionis a large share in total fixed
investment (47% for 1977-79),and it would be pushed up even further if
constructioncoverage included land reclamation 1/ (paragraph7) and more
fully included Itaipu.

II. InternationalTrade Statistics

15. Official estimates of merchandise trade are based on the foreign

exchange receipts and payments made by commercialbanks, adjusted by sub-
tracting non-merchandisereceipts (creditsor CIF payments) and by adding the
value of merchandise entered as a result of investmentsor donations. No
adjustmentsare made for undervaluationof exports, nor for trade under the
RegionalAgreement (DesDachoRegional Aduanero), Z/ which are not included in
commercialbank figures,because the correspondingfinancial transactions
are made through the exchangehouses (Report paragraph 61).

16. The discrepancybetween official estimates and those obtained from

trade-partnerdata has been increasing,and in 1979 figures from the latter
exceededofficial estimatesby 58% of the combined accounts of imports and
exports (Table A.!). These estimates,however, even taking into account the
leads and lags in data reporting,do not necessarilyreflect the total extent
to which external flows are being underestimated. In the case of exports,
unregisteredflows to neighboringcountries may often not be recordedby the
latter either to avoid import taxes, or because the importer in the recipient
country can qualify for an export subsidy by re-exportingthe Paraguayan
product as domestic production.

1/ A rough estimate of investmentin land cleared during 1979 indicates that

the estimatedinvestmentfigure could be 2 to 5F higher than reported
on this basis alone.

2/ Imports from neighboringcountries (Argentina, 3razil, Uruguay) can be

paid through the free exchange market.
 - 89 -

Table A.l: MerchandiseTrade

(US$ millions)

1976 1977 1978 1979

Exports (FOB)
Official Estimate 182.3 279.4 281.5 305.2

Including adjustmentfrom
partner country data 234.4 343.7 421.2 520.3

Including adjustmentfrom
exchange houses data 301.2 640.2 713.7 1,181.0

Imports (FOB)
Official Estimate 236.3 360.1 432.0 577.1

Includingadjustmentfrom
partner country data 315.5 480.5 671.1 865.6

Including adjustmentfrom
exchangehouses data 398.5 717.8 912.4 1,494.6

17. The BOP Division of the Central Bank has attempted to estimate
the real magnitude of external trade flows by using informationfrom
the exchangehouses' daily reports of their operationsin foreign exchange.
These operationshave been increasingin relation to those at the commercial
banks at an acceleratingpace. Sales and purchases of foreign exchangewere
allocated to the various items originatingthem: receipts and payments for
services,foreign investments,capital movements,etc., leaving a residual
that by all indicationsrepresentsmerchandise transactions. The figures
arrived at through this method, however, indicatea magnitude and a rate of
growth of unrecordedtrade that does not keep relationwith other variables
such as agriculturaloutput.

III. Treatmentof the HydroelectricProjects

18. A major data problem is related to the treatmentof the Binational

Authoritiesin the Paraguayanaccounts. Given that both by ownership (pre-
cisely) and location (approximately)half of each of the projects is in
Paraguay,half of the operationsof the Authorities should be incorporated
into the Paraguayanaccounts. Since operationsof the Authoritiesso far have
been limited to construction,the variables most likely to be affectedare
value added in construction,investment,exports and imports.

19. Official data, as currently prepared, do not attempt to identify

explicitlythe activitiesrelated to the hydroelectricprojects, except for
registeringas externalcapital inflows in the BOP the BinationalAuthorities'
 - 90 -

ourchases of domestic currency to pay for ?araguayan goods and services. 1/

Given that the Paraguayan accounts estimate the basic GDP figure bv sector of
origin, and given that construction of the orojects is carried out through
contracts to i'ndependent firms, the activitv contracted to ?araguayan firms
would in principle be reflected i'nche esti-mates of GDP and investment in
Paraguay. Any inaccuracy or unceresrimazion of these activities wouldbe
subject to the same margin of errsr as the inclusion of the activities
of any other Para-uayan firm. These activities, however, have represented no
more than 20% to 25% of total Itaiou investment expenditures and will likely
represent a similar share in Yacyreta. Consequently, there is an additional
30% to 25%'.of these investments to account for, given that Paraguay owns half
of the projects.

20. The mission has attempted to estimate the extent to which the
orficial escimates understate the aacional accounts variables, given that
they do not explicitly include Paraguay's 50% share. :naformation -from the
balances of the 3inationals vas used to estimate value added generated at
the projects. Half of this is attributable to Paraguay, but since the iart
generated by Paraguayan firms (according to the argument in paragraph 19)
would already be included in official estimates, it would have to be discounted
from the aforementioned 50%. At the present phase, value added at the projects
consists mainly of construction activity, and this is the major sector affected.
The following table snows the substantial changes in the share of GDP and
growth rates of the construction sector, if Itaipu and Yacyreta are included in
the sector estimates.

Table A.2: Value Added in Construction Sector

(percentages)

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

1. (a) Construction as
, of GDP 3.8 4.2 4.0 4.8 5.4

(b) Including adjustments for 5.4 5.2 7.0 9.7 9.8

hydroelectric projects

2. (a) Average annual

growth rate of
construction 21.2 18.1 31.1 32.0 30.0

(b) Including adjustments 73.1 20.8 57.4 57.4 15.5

Source: Mission estimates

1/ the Central Bank's OP Division _s ?reparing estimates of the project's

effects on the external accounts on the basis of the :'F methodology.
In fact, some of their oublications already irnclude an adjustment for
exports on account of the 3inationals' operations (ignoring the more
sizeable imDort flows).
 - 91 -

21. A similar reasoningas that applying to the constructionsector

applies to estimates of domestic investment. Since investmentin construction
is in part estimated by indirect indicators,and these indicatorsare influenced
by the activitiesof the firms working for the projects, the official estimate
of domestic investmentwould be incorporatingan amount reflectingthe demand
on the Paraguayan side. The fact that figures on domestic investmentare
incorporatingthe share correspondingto demand for Paraguayan goods and
services is suggestedby the distinctaccelerationin domestic investment
since Itaipu expendituresbegan to be significant.From 1976 to 1979 domestic
investmentincreasedat 23% a year compared to 14% during the previous three
years, and, as a proportion of GDP, investmentincreased from 20% in 1975 to
27% in 1979. During the same period (1976-79),Itaipu expendituresaveraged
US$200 million, equivalent to approximately30% of the estimated domestic
investment. These estimates,however, do not incorporate the full 50%
Paraguayan share of investmentin the hydroelectricprojects. If the latter
are included by appropriateadjustments the share of investment in GDP would
be as follows:

Investmentas percentageof GDP 1976 1977 1978 1979

Official Estimate 24.6 24.7 27.2 28.6

IncludingAdjustment for Hydro-

electric Project 28.2 29.9 35.9 35.9

22. Adjustmentin the productionside of GDP would have to be

accompaniedby adjustments in the income side. In this case the greater
participationof Paraguay'spartnerswould be reflected by larger factor
service payments to Brazil and Argentina,lowering the correspondingvalue of
GNP. In the case of investment,the financingwould have to be explained.
According to the treatiesand in fact, Brazil and Argentina are making all
financial arrangementsand guaranteeingany incurred external debt. In
reality,however, the external debt of Paraguay should be adjusted upward by
an amount equivalentto half of the debts assumed by the Binationals,and the
debt service projectionshould include servicingof the debt. 1/

1/ According to the treaties, the price at which the Binationalswill

sell the electricitywill have to be sufficientto generate revenues
for servicing the incurred debt. This price, in addition, should cover
operating costs and compensationpayments to each of the two partner
countries (includingpayments to the countries'agencies - ANDE in
Paraguay, ELETROBRASin Brazil, and Agua y Energia in Argentina).When
the projects are in operation,however, Paraguay will have to assume
debt by the same share it decides to use electricity,and thus will need
foreign exchange to make these payments. If Paraguay does not use any
electricity -- a possibility in the case of Yacyreta -- the effect on
Paraguayanaccounts would be mainly an accountingone, since the "Para-
guayan" part of Yacyreta would be paid by Argentina in foreign exchange
for the sale of electricityand would make the service of the debt out of
these revenues,without demanding foreign exchange from Paraguay on
account of the externaldebt incurred in financing the investment.
 - 92 -

23. Under the same criterion (5307ownership), operatIonsof the Authori-

ties would affect ?araguay s 30P. The TMF has given extensive treatment to
this aspect and, in short, oroposes chat half of the Authorities'purchases of
goods and services in Paraguay should be created as Paraguayanexports, and
the other half should not affect the 30P. Conversely,half of ourchases of
goods and sertices outside of Paraguay should be created as Paraguayan imports,
and the other half should not affect the Paraguayan30?. GiJen that cte
purchases outside of Paraguay are larger than those inside, the resulting
greater current account deficit would be offset by caDical inflows representing
the funds borrowed by the Authorities to finance .heir investments.

IV. ConcludingObervations

24. A more accurate estimationof Paraguay's nati-onal and external

accounts would require fundamentalimprovementsin methodologyand data
base. Nevertheless,the adjustmentsdiscussed in ths noce indicate the
direction and range of variation when the most clearly needed adjustments
are performed. According to these results, of-ficialestimates understated
GDP by 1.7% in 1975, when Itaipu constructionbegan, and up co 5.2% in
1978 when the project was at full construction. The adjustment entirely
reflects the higher value added in the constructionsector. In percentage
points the share of investmentin GDP rises dramatically,with the adjusted
figure being about 40% higher than the official estimate.

25. Understatementof the external accounts is even larger, as it

originatesin two sources. First, the most reliable estimate indicates that
official data underestimatethe combined amount of exports and imports by
at least 50%. Second, the official statistical treatmentof the binational
projects leaves out their transactions,which, because of the project's binational
character,affect most the external accounts. Inclusion of both adjustments
raises the degree of openness of the economy, with adjustad exports and imports
double the official estimate for 1979. The magnitude of the
discrepanciesclearly indicate the urgent need to revise the official esti-
mates, as the degree of their representativenessof actual values, and thus
their usefulnessfor policy purposes, become highly unsatisfactory.
 Table A.3: - GDP BY EXPENDITURE, OFFICIAL DATA AND ADJUSTED a/
(Percent)

1975 1976 1977 - 1978 1979

Ad- Ad- Ad- Ad- Ad-
Official Justed Official justed Official justed Official justed Official justed

Private consumption 75.1 75.0 74.5 76.0 74.8 76.1 73.3 76.3 74.0 74.6

Public consumption 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.0 6.7 6.3 5.4 5.5

Gross Domestic
Investment 24.1 27.1 24.6 28.2 24.7 29.9 27.2 35.9 28.6 35.9

Exports Goods & NFS 13.2 17.1 12.4 16.8 15.0 21.0 13.4 20.8 10.8 20.3

Imports Goods & NFS 18.8 25.5 17.8 27.2 20.7 33.0 20.6 39.2 19.1 36.2

GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Gross Domestic 203

Savings 18.6 18.8 19.3 17.9 19.0 17.9 20.0 17.4 20.3 19.9
Memo: CDP(official)/
GDP(adjusted) 98.3 97.9 96.9 94.8 95.4

a/ Main adjustments are as follows:

- GDP is adjusted by the share of construction value added at Itaipu and Yacyreta not captured by official estimates.
The same criteria is used for adjusting Gross Domestic Investment.
- Exports and imports include estimates of unregistered trade based on trade partner data and those imputed to
the hydroelectric projects.
- Consumption and savings are residuals.
 Table A.-,: BALANCE OF ?AYfENTS

(a) Off4cial Data

(mil'lions US$)

1976 1977 1978 1979

Exports of Goods a NFS 212.1 332.5 345.9 400.9

Imports of Goods & '.S 306.5 451.5 566.1 746.5
Resources Balance -94.4 -119.0 -220.2 -345.6

Net Factor Payments -1;.1 -15.7 -24.1 -15.5

Net Transfers 4.2 1.2 5.8 7.3

Current Account Balance -105.3 -133.3 -238.5 -353.8

Direct Investment 11.4 17.0 21.9 51.9

Net Private Long Term Capital 43.6 37.6 98.6 73.9

Net Capital for Binational Power
Entities 76.7 149.0 222.1 296.3
Net Public Long Term Capital 35.9 30.7 43.8 9.7

Short Term Capital Flowi and

Errors and Omissions-/ -12.2 8.1 18.3 90.5

Change in Reserves (- increase) -50.1 -108.9 -168.7 -168.5

Source: Central Bank

1/ Includes SDRs and holdings of Guaranies by international agencies.

 -95 -

(b) Adjusted to include Estimates based on information from Exchange Houses -

1976 1977 1978 1979

Exports of Goods & NFS 405.6 830.7 942.3 1,588.9

Imports of Goods & NFS 520.7 997.1 1,227.0 2,014.0
Resource Balance -115.1 -166.4 -284.7 -425.1

Net Factor Payments -15.5 -15.7 -33.1 -22.5

Net Transfers 12.6 14.2 23.2 25.3

Current Account Balance -118.0 -167.9 -294.6 -422.3

Direct Investment (net) 11.4 17.0 21.9 51.9

Net Private Long Term Capital 56.4 51.7 121.4 83.9
Net Capital for Binational Power
Entities 76.7 149.0 222.1 296.3
Net Public Long Term Capital 35.9 30.7 45.8 9.7

Short Term Capital Flows and

Errors and Omissions/i -12.2 -27.5 52.9 146.3

Change in Reserves (- increase) 50.2 -108.0 -169.5 -165.8

Source: Central Bank estimates; mission estimates.

/1 Includes SDRs holdings of Guaranies by international agencies.

a/ These are unofficial estimates made by the Central Bank by adjusting figures in
table (a) by estimates based on the operations of the exchange houses. The
variation in reserves includes the variation in the net external oosition of
the exchange houses.
 - 96-

(c) Includes Estimates of Trading ?artner Countr4es

1976 1977 1978 1979

Zxports of Goods & NFS 264.2 396.7 485.6 616.0

I=ports of Goods & NFS 385.7 571.9 305.2 ',03S.0
Resource Balance -121.5 -175.2 -319.6 -419.0

Net Factor Payments -15.1 -15.6 -24.0 -13.5

Net Transfers 4.2 1.2 5.3 7.3

Current Account Balance -132.4 -189.6 -337.8 -427.2

Direct Investment (net) 37.8 47.0 49.8 49.8

Net Private Long .erm CaDital 5.6 :5.0 2-6.3 32.4
Net Caoital for 3Binational
Power Entitles 76.7 149.0 222.1 296.3
Net Public Long Term Capital 58.4 106.9 108.6 ;8.6

Short Term Capital Flows and

Errors and Omissions/I 4.0 -19.4 99.7 138.6

Change in Reserves C-increase) -50.1 -108.9 -168.7 -168.5

Source: Central Bank, ThF, Mission Estimates.

/1 Includes SDRs and holdings of Guaranies by international agencies.

a/ Official figures (Table a) are adjusted by estimates from partner trade

data. Flows of public and private long-term capital are from IBRD's
external debt data file. 3irect investment is adjusted using information
from 'LMfF.
 -97-

a!
(d) IncludesTransactionsof Itaipu and Yacyretac

1976 1977 1978 1979

Exports of Goods & NFS 291.7 452.8 574.5 728.7

Imports of Goods & NFS 472.0 713.4 1,058.2 1,298.5
Resource Balance -180.3 -260.6 -483.7 -569.8

Net Factor Payments -35.5 -75.8 -150.6 -214.2

Net Transfers 4.2 1.2 5.8 7.3

Current Account Balance -211.6 -335.2 -628.5 -776.7

Direct Investment (net) 34.4 34.7 41.9 27.6

Net Private Long Term Capital 5.6 15.0 26.3 52.4

Net Public Long Term Capital 61.4 110.1 123.2 62.2
Other BinationalCapital Flows 189.4 342.7 640.9 820.0

Errors and Omissions/l -29.1 -58.4 -35.1 -17.0

Change in Reserves (- increase) -50.1 -108.9 -168.7 -168.5

Source: Central Bank, IMF, Mission Estimates.

/1 IncludesSDRs and holdings of Guaranies by Internationalagencies.

a/ Based on table (c), to which exports and imports of goods and NFS
imputed to the hydroelectricprojects are added.
 - 98 -

ANNEX U: F-scal Revenue ?rojactions

1. Tax revenue projectionswere nade for eacn main tax item over the
decade 1981 - 1990. Forecastswere based mainly on buoyancy coefficients
derived from time serles regressionanal,sis using `962 - 1979 actual tax
data. The buoyancv coefficientsreflect the compos1:e effect of built-in
elasticitywith respect to tax oase, discretionarycihangesin tax policy, and
improvementsin tax collectionsbecause of better compliance,reduced evasion,
and improved tax administratGon.The inde?endentvariables (used in different
combinationsas relevant)were the rates of change of real Vross Domestic
Product, the rate of change of the Gross Domestic Product Deflator, the rate
of change of the c.'.-. value of imDorts, and the rate of change of the f.o.b.
value of exports. Regression functions used for deriving the buoyancy
'elasticicies", which were the basis of the projections,all oresented
statisticallysignificantcoefficients.

2. The estimated buoyancy elasticitieswere used for the computation

of fiscal resourcesduring the decade. The resulting estimates are for
illustrative purposes in the context of the analysis done in the rest of
this report.

3. During the past five years the share of G.D.P. revresented

by tax revenues collections in ?araguay has oscillatedbetween 8%oand a
maximum of 9.6% (during 1973). Estimates for 1980 show that the ta-xratio
(tax revenues G.D.P.) has declined slight'y to a figure on the order of
8.0Z. Actual cax data for 1i39 were used as th.ebasis for the projections,
where the tax ratio was on the order of 9%, a figure more close to the average
tax ratio observed in the oast five years in Paraguay.
4. Projections were based on the assumption that the Government does
aot intend to increase significantly the share of government resources in
total economic activity. Also, the implicit assumptionwas made that at
present the Paraguayan Government is not planning to carry out significant tax
reforms that could raise in a major way the tax ratio coefficients. Tn other
words, this projection reflects no more tax effort than that implied by the
buoyancy coefficientsestimated on the basis of the historicalexperienceof
the period 1962 - 1979. No major tax effort was added with respect to this
underlyingbasic benchmark 1/. Nevertheless,from the point of view of
alternativepolicy scenarios,it should be noted that the oresent tax ratio of
Paraguay is among the lowest observed in the world. The 9/ltax ratio computed
for 1979 is about one-half the tax ratio observed for Brazil, and it is also
substantiallylower than the tax ratios of its other neighbor trade partners
(Argentinaand Bolivia). Only a few countries in the world, such as Mexico
and Haiti, show lower tax ratios than that for Paraguay. In the case of
Mexico, however, the tax structure is significativelymora progressiveand

1/ Except for the tax adjustments consideredin altarnative3, Table A.8.

 - 99 -

and responsive to G.D.P. growth. These international comparisons mean that if

it were politically feasible, and if the authorities wished, the country could
apply a tax effort through the decade such that its tax ratio would end up
significantly higher than it is at present. The two alternatives considered
in this section (both start from the buoyancy estimates) show a terminal tax
ratio which is, in fact, lower than the tax ratio of 1979. With the positive
rate of economic growth projected for the decade, it is obvious that if the
objective would have been that of an effort leading to a higher tax ratio,
then the increases in fiscal revenues projected for the decade would have been
higher.

5. In general, buoyancy was computed as the slope (B) of the logarithmic

transformation:

Log Tt = a + B Log yt + Ut

where Tt = tax revenue (year t),

Yt = tax base (year t), and

where Ut = Logarithm Vt and is assumed to have the ideal

statistical property of being distributed with constant variance and
zero mean and covariance.

6. Table A.5 presents the summary matrix of the tax buoyancy elasticities
estimated by means of the time series regression exercise. For example:
stamp tax collections are assumed to depend on the growth of G.D.P. and on
the growth of G.D.P. Price Deflator; the elasticity with respect to the first
variable is +5.193 and the elasticity with respect to the Price Index is -2.860.
This means that if the model is representative, stamp taxes are positively and
highly responsive to real G.D.P. growth and negatively responsive to price
inflation. A similar behavior can be observed for tax revenue collections of
real estate taxes, where both coefficients are much lower in absolute values.
In the case of import taxes and related duties, these seem to be positively
responsive with respect to the evolution of merchandise imports, although the
coefficients show a rather inelastic response. For export taxes the elasticities
shown are positive and slightly higher than unity. It is worthwhile noting
also that revenue collections from the general sales tax seem to be very
responsive to G.D.P. real growth.
 T'able A.5: SUMMARYMATlRIXOF TAX-BUOYANCYESTIMATLeD"ELASTICITIES"

Elasticity with respect G.D.P. real growtlh 1iiiports Exports

Tax Iteni to relevant tax base: ijndewx Price Index c.i.f. f.o.b.

I Stamp Taxes + 5.193 - 2.860

1i General Sales Tax t 3.001 -

Ill Taxes on Alcoholic Beverages - 1.243 4 1.l99 9 -

IV Iuport Taxes & Duties - -+-0.532

V Export Taxes & Duti-es - 1.128

VI Profits & Income Taxes 4- 2.265

ViI Real Estate I'axes + 2.595 _ .485

Source: Mission estimates.

 - 101 -

ble A.6: SUMMARY OF RESULTS OBTAINED UNDER TWO ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES OF TAX EFFORT

Tax Revenues Increase in annual Tax Revenues/GDP

Collected in Tax Revenue Flows* in terminal year
1990 (1990 compared to (1990)
1979, in constant
prices).

(US$ millions) (US$ millions) (Tax Ratio)

Alternative A

Projection of Buoyancy
Estimates according to
Historical Effort $ 598. $ 290. 6.47 %
(1962 - 1979)

Alternative B

Modest Improvement over

Historical effort $ 659. $ 351. 7.25 %
(four adjustments on -
tax system and"unit -
elasticity"for direct -
taxes).
 - 102 -

7. Methodologically, the hypothesis be-ng made is that

the government
coJllects nominal tax revenues, which in quantity
turn depend on a realcomponent
and an a price component of the relevant tax base. For example, the model says
that nominal tax coLlectionsfor stamp taxes are :ositively related to the
real component of G.D.P. and negatively dependent on the price comoonent of
G.D.P. This model allows, then, for a -ecompositionof effects working through
the real component of the -ax base and :he evolutior. of the r-icecomponent of
the tax base.

8. In order to oroject tax revenues to the year 1990, on the basis of

1979 actual tax daca, some working assumDtions had to be made with respect to
the evolution of real G.D.P. growth and the evolution of the G.D.P. deflator
(prices). Projections of real G.D.P. growth for the oeriod 1979 - 1990 are at
an average compound rate on the order of 9.2%,' oer annum. A working assumption
of 9.2% per annum was also adoDped as a reasonable expectation of average yearly
inflation for the decade.

9. On the whole, the implicit annual compound rate of -rowth for nominal
tax revenues is on the order of 16%, compared to a rate of 19.2%/ projected for
nominal G.D.P. During 1978 - 1979 total tax revenues showed a rate of annual
growth in nominal terms of about 28%. According to our projections, constant-
price tax revenues will grow at a o.2% annual rate, which compares to the 9.2%
per annum rate considered for reai G.D.P. growth in the decade.

10. Sumarizing, the estimated historical 1962 - 1979 effort projected to

the decade ahead shows a -final total tax revenue of USS598 million by 1990. This
figure brings in an increase ia annual tax revenue (1990 compared to 1979) on
the order of USS290 miliions in real terms.

11. Tax proposals which have already been analyzed and discussed in
government circles (some of these were itcroduced to congressional com-
mittees for discussion by November 1980) could generate at least US$14.8
million per year in increased tax revenues, if implemented. The package of
tax adjustmentsreferred to consists of:

(i) Introduction of a special category of levies taxing the incomes of

professionals for the first time in Paraguay. This project is
currently being discussed in Congress, and fiscal authorities expect
that in its first year of application it could generate some US$2.4
million in tax revenues. Projected to 1990 this could lead to
an addition of US$5.3 million. 1/

1/ For the purposes of calculating 1990 tax revenues collected out of

this new tax, it was assumed that the taxable income of orofessionals
grows at the same rate as Gross Domescic Product (9.2% ier vear),
so that at the end of the decade the tax revenues reach a total
figure indicated by 2.4 x (1 + 0.092)9 million US$, where 2.4 is the
first-year tax revenue.
 - 103 -

(ii) Conversion of current specific taxes to an ad valorem basis

for oil and derivative products; this proposal includes in some
cases upward adjustments in the rate of taxation. The change is
expected to yield an additional US$5.9 million, if implemented 1/.

(iii) Conversion of tax bases for internal excises levied over alcoholic
beverages and beer. The shift of taxation from in rem specific
bases (such as the tax on non-alcoholic beverages of 0.8 guaranies
per liter), to an ad valorem base could yield an estimated tax
revenue increase of US$2.23 million yearly in the case of these
items. 2/

(iv) Tax administration reform for the case of patentes fiscales charged
on automobiles. An effective enforcement of present tax legislation
could collect an estimated US$1.9 million, instead of the actual tax
collection of US$0.52 produced annually 3/. By means of this
particular effort, tax authorities could generate an additional
US$1.4 million to the Budget.

12. To the additional US$14.8 million generated by these four tax

adjustments (three of these are marginal changes operating on existing taxes),
an additional margin of reasonable tax effort could be imposed in the area of
direct taxes as a target to be pursued by the country during the decade.
Paraguay's direct taxation system on personal incomes and on the profits of
enterprises appears to be underdeveloped by international standards; on average,
the Latin American region showed a ratio of direct taxes to G.D.P. on the
order of 4% for 1976 - 1979, compared to the Paraguayan figure of 2%. Thus a
reasonableeffort in this area could raise the buoyancy coefficientfor
the present decade be raised in such that direct tax revenueslevied on
incomes and profits grow at the same rate as nominal Gross Domestic Product.
The requirementimplies a unit growth-elasticityof these tax revenues in
relation to nominal income. Applying this new criteriato the relevant 1979
base of US$54.36 million (col.6,Table II), the terminalfigure for 1990 would
become US$143.13 million for this particular item (comparedto the previous
historicalbuoyancy estimate of US$97.01 million).

1/ TMF, "Paraguay:Propuesta sobre Modificacionspara la

Simplificaciondel Sistema Impositivoy para la Mejora y Racionalizacion
de algunos Tributos",May 1980.

2/ Ibid.

3/ The potential tax collectionhere has been estimatedby application

of the average tax charge per car (4,000 guaranies)to the estimated
existing stock of 60,000 units.
 - 104 -

13. The four tax adjustmentsdescribed coupled with the new buoyancy
requirementfor direct taxes, and added to the previous estimates for the rest
of the tax items (those following the historical 1962 - 1979 pattern of effort),
lead to a new figure of total tax revenue in 1990 of USS659 million 1J.
The additional real fiscal resources in year 1990, compared to those of
year 1979, would then be on the order of 'JSS351million. The resulting
tax ratio to G.D.?. would become, in this alternative,7.25%, a figure
which is still below the base-year tax ratio (3.39) 2/.

1/ Note that in our new projection,except for the case af the new
tax imposed on the incomes of professionalsand except for the
direct tax levied on personal incomes and profits (both of them
following their own special time trends), we have added the
estimated new revenuesfrom tax adjustmentsas "once-and-for-all"
changes.

21 Note that a third alternative,consistingof maintaining the tax

ratio of 1979 (8.89% of G.D.P.), would raise total tax revenues to
US$808.91 million (1979 prices) generatingan additionalUS$500.83
million in fiscal revenuesby 1990. Among various avenues for reaching
such a target, our econometricestimates indicate that an importantway
of achieving this would be either a reduction of the projected rates of
inflation (which damages a series of tax items) or the introductionof
indexingto the tax system.
 - 105 -

1/
Table A.7: ANNUAL TAX FLOWS UNDER ALTERNATIVEA PROJECTION
(millionsof US$ in 1979 prices)

Year Original Tax Total Projected Yearly Annual Revenue

Revenue Base Tax Revenues Increases

1979 308.08

1980 308.08 327.18

1981 308.08 347.46 20.3

1982 308.08 369.00 21.5

1983 308.08 391.87 22.9

1984 308.08 416.16 24.3

1985 308.08 441.96 25.8

1986 308.08 469.36 27.4

1987 308.08 498.46 29,1

1988 308.08 529.36 3009

1989 308,08 562.18 32.8

1990 308.08 598.58 36.4

1/ Yearly flows were estimated utilizing the 6.2% annual compound growth
rate implied by the total tax revenue projection
 - 106 -

3 PROJZCTION-
able A.8:A.NNUALTAX FLOWS UNDER ALTERNAXTIVE
of ':SSin 1979 prices),
(m.illions

' ear 3ase - i7ear Total Tax Revenue Annual Revenue

Tax Revenue Collected for the Increases
vear

1979 $ 3-08.08 S 308.08

1980 S 308.08 i 329.32

1981 S 208.08 S 363.99 34,7

1982 $ 308.08 S 388.56 24.6

1983 $ 308.08 $ 414.87 26.3

1984 $ 308,08 $ 443,06 28.2

1985 S 3CM,08 S 473.25 30,2

1986 3 2S08.28 S 305.61 32.3

1987 S 308.08 $ 340,28 34,7

1988 S 308.08 S 377.43 3712

1989 $ 308.08 S 617.26 40.8

1990 $ 308.08 $ 659,97 42.7

1/ Each of the tax flows consideredunder the four tax adjustments

(see tax proposals in text) is incorporatedto the time profile
assuming these ammendmentsare effective starting .981, The tax
revenue for the new tax on -rofessionalincomes starts with
US$2.4 mill, in 1981 (estimatedtax collection for the first year
in force) and grows at the chosen 9.2% yearly rata for the remaining
years. The tax revenue flows for the direct tax on oersonal incomes and
profits follows the time trend rate of nominal GDP (19.2% nominal;
9.2% real rate). The other tax items follow the pactern of AlternativeA.
 - 107 -
PARAGUAY

STATISTICAL APP=DIX

Table No.

1. POPULATION, IABOR F'ThC1, EDUCATION

1.1 Vital Statistics

1.2 Mid-Year Populaticnby Sex, 1962-85
1.3 Regional Distriburicnof Populaticn, 1962 and 172
1.4 Employed PopulationClassifiedby Sector of Employment,Type of
Employmentand Sex, 1972
1.5 EmDloyedPopulation Classified bv Level of Education,Years of
Study Completed,Sex and Occupation,1972

11. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

2.1 Gross domesticProduct by Sector of Origin, 1965, 1970-79

2.2 Gross DomesticProduct by Sector of Origin, 1965, 1970-80
2.3 Annual Real Growth Rates and Ccmpcsitionof'Nominal GDP by
Sector of Origin,.1965-79
2.4 Expenditureon Gross Domestic Product at Current Prices, 1970-79
2.5 Expenditureon Gross Domestic Product at Current Prices as
Percent of CDP, 970-79
2.6 Expenditureson Gross Domestic Product at ConstantPrices, 1970-/9
2.7 Terms of Trade, 1970-79
2.8 National Income and Product at Current Prices, 1970-79

111. BALANC: OF PAXE LZTS

3.1 Balance of ?ayments,1970-79

3.2 Merchanidise Exports, 1970-79
3.2a Export Price Lndex, 1970-79
3.2b X•erchandise Exports in ConstantPrices, 1970-79
3.3 Co-mnodityImports (FOB), 1070-79
3.3a Import Price Index, 1970-79
3.3b Commodity Imports (FOB) in ConstantPrices, 1970-79
3,. Direction of Trade, 1970-79-
3.5 vr-ort Pro4 ectcns, 10981-l99O
.6 Import Projections,1981-1990

IV. EXTERNALDEBT

4.1 ExternalPublic and Private Debt OutstandingincludingUndisbursed

as of December 31, 1979 (Debt Repayable in foreign currency axudgoods)
4.2 ServicePayments, Commitments, Disbursements and Outstanding Amounts
of External Public Debt ProjectionsBased on Deb.tCutstanding
IncludingUndisbursedas of December 31, 1979
(DeptRepayable in Foreign Currencyand Coods)
4.3 ExternalPublic Debt OutstandingIncludingUndisbursedas of Dec. 31, 1979
(DebtRepavable in Local Currencv)
4.4. ServicePayments, Comit:mern.s, Disbursementsand OutstandingAmounts
of ExternalPublic Debt ProjectionsBased on Debt Outstanding
IncludingUndisbursedas of Decemler 31, 1981
(DebtRepayable in Local Currencv)
 - 108 -

STATIS-;C! kP
?CAIT : (Continued)

Table No.

V. ,PTflL:c SPCTCC.' , 1c!

i.1 Public Sector Resources for :nvest=ent, .972-'979

5.2 ?ublic Sector Resources for Investmenz (percpntage Distribution),
1972-197 9
5.3 Central Ad=inistration Operations, 1972-79
5.4 Si -ary ODera:tcrlso: :he Social Security Ins:it_tions, 1972-79
5.5 Operations of DecentraliZed Agencies, 1972-79
5.6 Operations of Decentralized Agencies, 1972-79
5.7 Sm"jary Operations of the Municipalities, 1972-79
5.8 Operations of Public Enterprises, 1972-79
5.9 Operations of Public _nter rises, 1972-79
5.10 Suamary of ?ublic Sector Operat4ons,1972_7g
5.11 Fixed Public Seccor nvestmeas, 1'9?72-79

6.1 S=ary Accounts of :he Centrn art'.. -.

6.2 Suiary Accounts of the National Deve' Rar.k,
aen: 4974-o
6.3 Summarv Accounts of the Co- arcial 3anks, l974-
6.4 Su=ary Accounts of t_be3anking Systez, 1;7'-g0
6.5. Credit to the ?rivata Sectcr by 'ez:t!a.ion, _166-79

VIl GIr.:wi
CL-. =-T

7.1 Structure of Annual Cron ?rcduc:^ic, 1972-79

7.2 Structure of ?ean2.ent Croo ?:oduc:icn, 1972-79
7.3 Production of Annual Crops, 1-70-79
7.. 4 Production of Pe a Crons,
zent 1970-79
7.5 Index of Agricultural ?roduction, 1972-79
7.6 Croo ?roduction of Zxport Croos bv Area H{arvestedby
Department, 1970-79
7.7 Cron Production of DomesticCrops by Area Harvested by
Department 1971-79
7.8 Crop Production of Selected Crops by Area Harvested by
Department, 1978-79
7.9 Average Yield for Ten Major Crops by Denartment, 1978-79
7.10 Commodity Prices for Ten Major Crons by Department, 197a-79
7.11 Livestock ?ovulaticn, 1970-79
7.12 Distribution of Cattle PoDulation by Sex, Age and Region, 1979
7.13 Slaughters of Cattle ar.dAverage Prices, 1972-79
7.14 Index of Livestock ?-roduction, 1970-79
 - 109 -

STATISTICALAPPENDIX (Continued)

Table No.

VIII. MANUFACTURINGIITUSTRY

8.1 Value Added in Industry,1970-79

8.2 PercentageContributionof Agro-industriesto Value Added in
Industry1962, 1970, 1973-79
8.3 Value added in Industry,1972-77
8e4 Gross Value of IndustrialProduction,1970-79
8.5 Index of IndustrialProduction,1970-79
8.6 InvestmentsApproved Under Law 216/550 of IndustrialPromotion,
1972-79

1X. PRICES AND WAGES

9.1 ImplicitDeflators, 1965, 1970-79
9.2 Wholesale Price Index, 1973-80
9.3 Consumer Price Index, 1964-80
9.4 Minimum Wages and Wage Index for Laborers, 1969-78

X. EDUCATION SECTOR

10.1 Ministry of Education:Structureof Expenditureby Functions and

Programs, 1969-1981
10.2 Rural Primary Education: Annual Stock Figures for Projected
Student Enrollmentby Departmentsand Grades: 1980-90
10.3 Rural Primary Education: Student EnrollmentFlows by Year and
by Departmentand InvestmentRequircments Estimates 1980-90
 Table 1 . 1: PARAGUAY - VII'AL,STATIST]ICS

1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 197.* 1985-

1955 1960 1965 l9i;i 1975 198() 1985 1.990

Crude birtlirate (per thiousand poptilation) 45.5 43.8 42.2 41.4 39.8 39i1 38.0 36.2
Crude deatllirate (per thlousanid poptulationi) 15.8 13.5 11.7 "(9.9 8.9 8.1 7.3 6.7
Rate of liatiral increase (per tlhousaiid
population) 29.7 30.3 30.5 31.5 30.9 31.U J0.6 2'9.5
Migratlon rate /1 (per tlhOulsand population) -3.4 -5.1 -4.9 -5.1 -3.0( -1.9 -1.7 -1.7
Total poptulation growthrate (percent) 2L6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8
Life expectancy (iln years) 51.5 54.4 57.0 60.1 61.9 63.6 65.2 66.7

1'op)ulation Structure

Poptulatiotn betweein 0-14 years (in %) 43.3 45.0 46.2 46.2 45.6 44.7 44.0 43.1
15-64 (in %) 53.0 51.5 50.5 50.5 5l1.l 51.9 S2.6 53.3
65 + (in %) 3.97 3.5 3.3 3.3 t.'I 3.4 3.4 3.6 .
Dependency inidex /P (0-I4)+P(65+)/l00 88.5 94.2 98.1 98.1 95.6 92.8 90.2 87.6 P
P(15-64)

/I Migration es-tiiiates froutiother sources dtffer contsiderably. Recent reports fromii11. and OAS shkow iigra-
tion rales twice as lhkghi.

Source; Tl'S, Proyecciontes de Pobiacion 1950-2000; Dec. 1974.

 - ill -

Table 1.2: PARAGUAY - MID-YEAR POPULATION BY SEX, 1962-85

(in thousands)

Rate of
Males Females Total Growth

1962 898.6 920.5 1,819.1 2.60

1963 922.0 944.4 1,866.4 2.60
1964 946.0 969.0 1,915.0 2.60
1965 970.7 994.2 1,964.9 2.60
1966 1,000.6 1,015.5 2,016.1 2.60
1967 1,035.6 1,033.1 2,068.7 2.60
1968 1,053.5 1,069.2 2,122.7 2.60
1969 1,081.1 1,097.2 2,178.3 2.60
1970 1,109.2 1,125.8 2,235.0 2.60
1971 1,141.7 1,151.3 2,293.0 2.60
1972 1,169.1 1,188.9 2,358.0 2.60
1973 1,202.3 1,222.7 2,425.0 2.84
1974 1,236.8 1,257.8 2,494.6 2.87
1975 1,272.7 1,294.2 2,566.9 2.90
1976 1,310.0 1,332.1 2,642.1 2.93
1977 1,348.6 1,371.5 2,720.1 2.95
1978 1,387.7 1,411.2 2,798.9 2.90
1979 1,428.0 1,452.1 2,880.1 2.90
1980 1,469.4 1,494.2 2,963.6 2.90
1981 1,512.0 1,537.6 3,049.6 2.90
1982 1,555.8 1,582.2 3,138.0 2.90
1983 1,601.0 1,628.0 3,229.0 2.90
1984 1,647.4 1,675.3 3,322.7 2.90
1985 1,695.2 1,723.8 3,419.0 2.90
1986 1,744.3 1,773.9 3,518.2 2.90
1987 1,793.2 1,823.5 3,616.7 2.80
1988 1,843.4 1,874.5 3,717.9 2.80
1989 1,895.0 1,927.0 3,822.0 2.80
1990 1,948.0 1,981.1 3,929.1 2.80

Sources: Central Bank, Cuentas Nacionales

TPS, Proyecciones de ?oblacion, 1950-2000.
Census, 1972.
 - 112 -

Table 1.3: PARAGUAY - REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION 1962 AND 1972

2 Mid-year Population Population Population

Department Area (km ) 1962 1972 Increase (%) per km

Asuncion 117 288,900 388,958 3.0 3,324.4

Concepci6n 18,051 85,700 108,130 2.3 6.0

San Pedro 20,002 91,800 138,018 4.2 6.9

Cordillera 4,982 188,300 194,218 0.5 39.3

Guaira 3,022 115,000 124,799 0.8 41.3

Caaguaz'u 12,298 125,100 202,596 4.9 16.5

Caazapa 9,496 92,400 103,139 1.1 10.9

Itapua 16,525 149,800 201,411 3.0 12.2

Misiones 9,556 59,400 69,246 1.5 7.2

Paraguari 8,705 203,000 211,977 0.4 24.4

Alto Parana 14,895 24,000 69,044 11.1 4.6

Central 2,465 229,100 310,390 3.1 125.9

Neembuc'u 12,147 57,900 73,098 2.4 6.0

12,933 34,500 65,111 6.6 5.0

Pres. Hayes 72,907 29,900 42,338 3.5 0.6

Boqueron 46,708 40,400 11,768 11.6 0.3

Canendiyu' 14,667 - 27,825 - 1.9

Olimpo (Alto
Paraguay) 45,982 3,900 15,080 14.5 0.3

Chaco 36,367 - 656 - *

Nueva
Asuncion 44.961 - 153 - *

Total
Paraguay 406,752 1,819,100 2,357,955 2.6 6.7

* Less than 0.1 per km2

Source: Census, 1962 and 1972.

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 Table 2.1: PARAGUAY - GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN, 1965, 1970-79

(in millions of current guaranies)

1965 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Agriculture 20,517 24,024 27,799 33,395 47,292 59,305 70,284 73,961 89,925 103,431 135.162
Agriculture 11,761 13,326 15,388 17,020 25,842 32,865 37,727 45,043 59,308 63,249 84,200
Livestock 6,445 7,283 8,832 12,380 16,443 19,576 23,841 21,313 21,777 30,139 38,487
Forestry 2,239 3,331 3,519 3,926 4,912 6,740 8,546 7,397 8,590 9,623 11,895
Hunting and fishing 72 84 60 69 95 124 170 208 250 420 580

Industry 10,128 14,656 16,340 18,438 23,665 35,979 37,287 43,788 56,219 70,683 94,261
Mining 104 83 185 212 206 298 365 529 685 794 1,446
Manufacturing 8,666 12,498 13,731 15,693 20,034 30,338 29,759 34,221 44,974 54,419 69,610
Construction 1,358 2,075 2,424 2,533 3,425 5,343 7,163 9,038 10,560 15,470 23,205

Infrastructure 2,771 3,790 4,266 5,093 6,260 8,214 10,339 12,438 14,871 18,976 25,248
Electricity 300 703 875 1,073 1,631 1,730 2,305 3,208 3,953 5,088 6,777
Water and sanitation 67 136 182 247 295 346 434 527 654 894 1,112
Transport and communications 2,404 2,951 3,209 3,773 4,334 6,138 7,600 8,703 10,264 12,994 17,359

Other services 22,476 32,451 35,331 39,973 48,220 64,520 72,529 83,882 102,597 129,452 175,843
Commerce and finance 12,744 18,291 20,203 22,272 28,890 39,853 43,594 51,502 66,026 83,986 112,656
General government 2,148 3,943 4,174 4,597 4,786 5,285 6,493 7,623 10,283 12,710 14,595
Housing 1,878 2,281 2,339 2,599 2,839 4,118 5,018 5,570 6,077 7,493 11,229
Other 5,706 7,936 8,615 10,505 11,705 15,264 17,424 19,187 20,211 25,263 37,363

Gross domestic product at m.p. 55,892 74,921 83,736 96,899 125,437 168,018 190,439 214,069 263,612 322,542 430_514

1/ Tables 2.1 to 2.8 are based on official figures as reported by the Central Bank.

Source: Central Bank.

 Table 2.2: PARAGUAY - GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN, 1965, 1970-80

(in millions of 1977 Guaranies)

1965 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Agriculture 53,157 58,121 59,193 61,777 65,717 72,139 78,033 80,914 89,925 95,197 101,602
Agriculture 32,932 36,465 37,447 39,617 42,762 47,417 49,008 51,325 59,308 62,981 67,075
Livestock 14,299 15,467 15,386 15,601 16,209 17,232 20,809 21,495 21,777 22,600 23,504
Forestry 5,791 6,040 6,229 6,452 6,615 7,345 8,031 7,875 8,590 9,272 10,570
Hunting and fishing 135 149 101 107 131 145 185 219 250 344 453

Industry 23,552 31,220 33,436 35,590 38,886 42,116 42,707 46.071 56,219 64,109 72,426
Mining 163 114 258 288 284 325 390 555 685 794 1,128 1
Manufacturing 20,921 27,492 29,042 31,067 33,670 36,163 35,495 37,460 44,974 49,376 53,177
Construction 2,468 3,614 4,136 4,235 4,932 5,628 6,822 8,056 10,560 13,939 18,121 3

Infrastructure 5,763 7,325 7,876 8,361 9,480 10,500 12,141 13,593 14,871 16,782 19,112
Electricity 573 1,259 1,526 1,799 2,257 2,301 2,807 3,638 3,953 4,588 5,510
Water and sanitation 156 261 332 414 439 460 528 581 654 806 904
Transportation and
communcations 5,034 5,805 6,018 6,148 6,784 7,739 8,806 9,474 10,264 11,388 12,698

Other Services 48,599 64,816 68,218 71,328 75,711 80,675 85,532 93,164 102,597 116,147 130,364
Commerce and finance 30,315 39,643 42,103 43,445 47,143 51,302 53,547 58,962 66,026 75,455 84,911
General government 4,976 8,578 8,652 8,730 8,062 7,795 9,090 9,697 10,283 11,100 12,199
Housing 3,494 4,062 4,197 4,339 4,600 4,843 5,189 5,609 6,077 6,774 7,486
Other 9,814 12,533 13,266 14,814 15,906 16,735 17,706 18,896 20,211 22,818 25,768

Gross domestic product at

market prices 131,071 161,482 168,723 177,056 189,794 205,430 218,413 233,742 263,612 292,235 323,504

Source: Central Bank of Paraguay.

 Table 2.3: PARAGUAY - ANNUAL REAL GROWTH RATES AND COMPOSITION OF
NOMINAL GDP BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN, 1965-79

________________________ ANNUAL
GROWTH
RATES
_ cam
_sition 7_
1965/70 1970/71 1971/72 fj2T773- -1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1965 19U70 P1975 1977 1979

Agriculture 1.8 1.8 6.2 6.4 9.8 8.2 3.7 11.1 5.9 6.7 36.7 32.1 36.9 34.1 31.4
Agriculture 2.1 2.7 8.9 7.9 10.9 3.4 4.7 15.6 6.2 6.5 21.1 17.8 19.8 22.5 19.6
Livestock 1.6 -0.5 1.2 3.9 6.3 20.8 3.3 1.3 3.8 4.0 11.5 9.7 12.5 8.3 8.9
Forestry 0.8 3.1 2.9 2.5 11.0 9.3 -1.9 9.1 7.9 14.0 4.0 4.5 4.5 3.2 2.8
Hunting & fishing 2.0 -32.2 5.4 22.7 10.0 28.2 18.0 14.3 37.4 31.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Industry 5.8 7.1 9.9 9.3 8.3 1.4 7.9 22.0 14.0 13.0 18.1 19.6 19.6 21.3 21.9
Mining -6.9 126.3 13.9 -1.2 14.1 20.2 42.2 23.6 15.9 42.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3
Manufacturing 5.6 5.6 11.0 8.4 7.4 -1.8 5.5 20.1 9.8 7.7 15.5 16.7 15.6 17.0 16.2
Construction 7.9 14.4 2.6 16.5 14.1 21.2 18.1 31.1 32.0 30.0 2.4 2.8 3.8 4.9 5.4

Infrastructure 4.9 7.5 10.6 13.4 10.8 15.6 12.0 9.4 12.9 13.9 5.0 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.9
Electricity 17.1 21.2 18.2 25.5 1.9 22.0 26.1 11.7 16.1 20.1 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.6
Water & Sanitation 10.8 27.2 24.6 6.0 4.9 14.8 9.9 12.6 23.3 12.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Transport & Communications 2.9 3.7 7.7 10.4 14.1 13.8 7.6 8.3 11.0 11.5 4.3 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.0

Other Services 5.9 5.2 4.5 6.1 6.6 6.0 8.9 10.1 13.2 12.2 40.2 43.3 38.1 38.9 40.8
Commerce & finance 5.5 6.2 3.1 8.5 8.8 4.4 10.1 12.0 14.3 12.5 22.8 24.4 22.9 25.1 26.2.
General government 11.5 0.9 0.8 -7.7 -3.3 16.6 6.7 6.0 7.9 9.9 3.8 5.3 3.4 3.9 3.4
Housing 3.0 3.3 3.3 6.0 5.3 7.2 8.1 8.3 11.5 10.5 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.6
Other 5.0 5.8 11.7 7.4 5.2 5.8 6.7 7.0 12.9 12.9 10.2 10.6 9.2 7.6 8.6

Gross Domestic Product at

m rices 4.3 4.5 6.4 7.2 8.2 6.3 7.0 12.8 10.9 10.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Central Bank, Tables 2.1 and 2.2.

 Table 2.4: PARAGUAY - EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES, 1970-79

(in millions of guaranies)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Consumption 64,789 73,691 82,379 100,705 136,559 154,942 172,846 213,408 258,023 342,965
Private 58,041 66,582 74,610 92,535 127,332 142,970 159,433 197,055 236,523 318,255
Public 6,748 7,109 7,769 8,170 9,227 11,972 13,413 16,353 21,500 24,710

Gross Domestic Investment 11,034 12,195 14,590 23,862 35,271 45,893 52,716 65,072 87,717 122,972
Gross Fixed Investment 10,833 11,800 13,270 20,411 30,897 39,543 48,746 62,922 81,256 116,142
Private (8,103)/1 (8,609)/1 (10,350) (18,831) (29,912) (36,228) (33,019) (44,972) (65,875) (98,363)
Public (2,780)/I (3,191)/1 (4,240) (5,031) (5,359) (9,665) (19,697) (20,100) (21,842) (24,609)
Changes in Stocks 151 395 1,320 3,451 4,374 6,350 3,970 2,150 6,461 6,830
co
Exports of goods & nfs 11,176 11,200 13,340 18,770 26,057 25,155 26,600 39,600 43,283 46,670 X
Imports of goods & nfs 12,078 13,350 13,410 17,900 29,869 35,551 38,093 54,468 66,481 82,093

Net Exports of goods & nfs -902 -2,150 -70 870 -3,812 -10,396 -11,493 -14,868 -23,198 -35,423

GDP at market prices 74,921 83,736 96,899 125,437 168,018 190,439 214,069 263,612 322,542 430,514

Net Factor Income Payments -1,242 -1,255 -1,950 -2,120 -2,027 -1,536 -3,470 -4,570 -7,613 -2,326

GNP at market prices 73,679 82,481 94,949 123,317 165,991 188,903 210,599 259,042 314,929 428,188

Memo:
Net Indirect Taxes 5,486 5,885 6,017 6,388 6,823 7,879 8,871 10,270 16,212 27,565

Gross Domestic Savings 10,132 10,045 14,520 24,732 31,459 35,497 41,223 50,204 64,519 87,549
Private 7,637 7,803 12,675 21,236 25,652 27,618 33,229 37,091 45,579 63,290
Public 2,495 2,242 1,845 3,496 5,807 7,602 7,994 13,113 18,940 24,259

Net Transfers 654 965 817 717 487 1,762 532 153 727 925
Gross National Savings/2 9,544 9,755 13,387 23,329 29,919 35,723 38,285 45,787 57,633 86,148

Source: Central Bank of Paraguay. /1 GDFI only; other years refer to Gross Domestic Investment; /2 Includes net transfers.
 Table 2.5: PARAGUAY - EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES, 1970-79
(as percent of GDP)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Consumption 86.5 88.0 85.0 80.3 81.3 81.4 80.7 81.0 80.0 79.7
Private 77.5 79.5 77.0 73.8 75.8 75.1 74.5 74.8 73.3 74.0
Public 9.0 8.5 8.0 6.5 5.5 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.7 5.7

Gross Domestic Investment 14.7 14.6 15.0 19.0 21.0 24.1 24.6 24.7 27.2 28.6
Gross Fixed Investment 14.5,/ 14.1 /1 13.7 16.3 18.4 20.8 22.8 23.9 25.2 27.0
Private (10.8)- (10.3)- (10.7) (15.0) (17.8) (19.0) (15.4) (17.1) (20.4) (22.8)
Public ( 3 . 7 )L' (3.8)- (4.3) (4.0) (3.2) (5.1) (9.2) (7.6) (6.8) (5.8)
Changes in stocks 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.7 2.6 3.3 1.8 0.8 2.0 1.6

Export of Goods & nfs 14.9 13.4 13.8 15.0 15.5 13.2 12.4 15.0 13.4 10.8

Imports of Goods & nfs 16.1 16.0 13.8 14.3 17.8 18.7 17.8 20.7 20.6 19.1

Net Exports of Goods & nfs -1.2 -2.6 0.0 0.7 -2.3 -5.5 -5.4 -5.7 -7.2 -8.3

GDP at m.p. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Net Factor Income Payments -1.7 -1.5 -2.0 -1.7 -1.2 -0.8 -1.6 -1.7 -2.4 -0.5

GNP at m.p. 98.3 98.5 98.0 98.3 98.8 99.2 98.4 98.3 97.6 99.5

Memo:
Net Indirect Taxes 7.3 7.0 6.2 5.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 5.0 6.4

Gross Domestic Savings 13.5 12.0 15.0 19.7 18.7 18.6 19.3 19.0 20.0 20.3
Private 10.2 9.3 13.1 16.9 15.2 14.6 15.6 14.0 14.1 14.7
Public 3.3 2.7 1.9 2.8 3.5 4.0 3.7 5.0 5.9 5.6

Net Transfers /2 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
Gross National SavingsL- 12.7 11.6 13.8 18.6 17.8 18.8 17.9 17.4 17.9 20.0

Source: Table 2.4 /1 GDFI only; other years refer to Gross Domestic Investment.
/2 Includes Net Transfers.
 Table 2.6: PARAGUAY - EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES, 1970-79

(in millions of 1977 guaranies)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Consumption 132,050 141,992 146,555 153,753 168,906 174,917 189,605 213,408 231,304 241,318
Private 123,170 132,430 132,845 141,327 157,635 161,214 174,944 197,055 211,850 220,662
Public 13,641 13,696 13,710 12,426 11,271 13,703 14,661 16,353 19,454 20,656

Gross domestic investment 20,610 22,838 26,055 35,890 40,126 42,816 52,579 65,072 79,125 95,200
GDFI 21,576 23,139 24,488 32,845 36,911 38,121 48,305 62,922 74,819 91,075
Changes in stocks 888 1,018 1,567 3,045 3,215 4,695 4,274 2,150 4,306 4,125

Exports of goods and nfs 29,257 28,426 31,537 31,336 35,597 35,330 32,962 39,600 44,347 51,626 e

Imports of goods and nfs 24.156 26.915 27,091 31,185 39,199 34,650 41,405 54,468 62,541 64,640

Net Exports of goods and nfs 5,101 -1,511 4,446 151 -3,602 680 -8,443 -14,868 -18,194 -13,014

GDP at market prices 157,761 166,341 177,056 189,794 205,430 218,413 233,741 263,612 292,235 323,504

Net factor income payments -2,779 -2,820 -3,877 -3,705 -2,623 -584 -3,603 -4,570 -6,953 -56

GNP at market prices 154,982 163,521 173,179 186,089 202,807 217,829 230,138 259,042 285,282 323,448

Memo:
Gross domestic savings 25,711 24,349 30,501 36,041 36,524 43,496 44,136 50,204 60,931 82,186
Net transfers/i 1,308 1,946 1,651 1,249 639 1,717 578 153 684 728
Gross national savings/2 Z4,240 23,475 28,275 33,585 34,540 44,269 41,111 45,481 54,662 82,858

Source: Central Bank

/1 Deflated by import price index. /2 Includes transfer payments.

 Table 2.7: PARAGUAY, TERMS OF TRADE, 1970 - 1979

(millions of guaranies)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Exports goods and nfs 11,176 11,200 13,340 18,770 26,057 25,155 26,660 39,600 43,283 51,633
(current prices)

Export price index/ 39.4 41.8 42.0 61.1 73.7 72.3 75.5 100.0 95.4 104.9

Exports goods & nfs 28,358 26,781 31,762 30,710 35,380 34,797 35,218 39,600 45,361 49,245
(constant 1977 prices)

Import price index 2 40.2 45.8 47.8 54.9 81.8 98.3 92.4 100.0 110.3 130.6

Exports (capacity to import) 27,808 24,481 27,885 34,214 31,862 25,590 28,791 39,600 39,252 39,550

Terms of trade adjustment -550 -2,300 -3,877 3,504 -3,518 -9,207 -6,427 - -6,109 -9,695

GDP (constant 1977 prices) 157,761 166,341 177,056 189,794 205,430 218,413 233,741 263,612 292,235 323,504

GDY (constant 1977 prices) 157,211 164,041 173,179 193,298 201,912 209,206 227,314 263,612 286,126 313,809

Source: Central Bank, mission estimates.

/1 Table 3.2a.

/2 Table 3.3a.
 Table 2.8: PARAGUAY - NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES, 1970-79

(in millions of guaranies)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Wages and salaries 25,770.0 30,420.0 35,370.2 41,320.0 58,590.0 65,260.0 76,670.0 91,600.0 106,100.0 150,900.0

Income from businesses of

families and unincorporated
enterprises/l 35,981.7 39,668.2 46,280.4 66,504.0 89,034.3 100,479.4 104,603.0 123,188.0 145,341.0 176,205.0

Undistributed profits 250.7 230.0 520.0 680.0 1,660.0 2,700.0 2,900.0 4,030.0 5,230.0 7,380.0

Direct taxes/2 800.8 861.8 925.8 1,029.0 1,093.9 1,471.0 1,876.0 2,441.0 4,937.0 6,493.0

Income of public enterprises 955.9 937.1 973.1 1,029.0 1,233.4 1,428.5 1,809.0 2,946.0 4,909.0 10,530.0

Interest on domestic public

debt -101.6 -86.4 -218.1 -123.0 -82.1 -115.4 -110.0 -54.0 -53.0 -75.0

National income 63,657.5 72,030.7 83,851.4 110,419.0 151,529.5 171,223.5 187,748.0 224,151.0 266,464.0 351,433.0

NDP at factor cost 65,473.5 73,660.7 85,801.4 112,539.0 153,556.5 172,759.5 191,218.0 228,721.0 274,077.0 353,759.0

Net factor service income -1,816.0 -1,630.0 -1,950.0 -2,120.0 -2,027.0 -1,536.0 -3,470.0 -4,570.0 -7,613.0 -2,326.0

NNP at factor cost 63,657.5 72,030.7 83,851.4 110,419.0 151,529.5 171,223.5 187,748.0 224,151.0 266,464.0 351,433.0

Source: Central Bank.

/1 Residual.

/2 Income tax and fiscal supervision of private enterprises with limited liabilities.
 - 123 -

Table 3.1: PARAGUAY - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1970-79 l/

(millions of USS)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 197,' 1978 :L979

Merchandise exports, FOB 65.3 66.4 85.5 127.0 173.0 176.4 182.3 279.4 281.5 305.2
Merchandise imports, FOB 76.6 83.0 78.7 122.3 198.3 227.3 236.3 360.- 432.0 577.1
Trade balance -11.3 -16.6 6.8 4.7 -25.3 -50.9 -54.0 -80.7 -150.5 -271.9

Non-factor service receipts 24.1 22.6 20.0 23.4 32.9 33.6 29.7 53.1 64.2 935.7
Freight and insurance 2.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.3 1.8 2.4 2.4 3.1
Travel 14.2 14.7 11.1 12.8 12.1 10.3 14.0 35.4 40.4 69.5
Other services 7.3 6.3 7.6 9.2 19.2 21.0 13.9 15.3 21.4 23.1

Non-factor service payments 24.5 26.1 27.4 33.8 53.0 73.0 70.0 91.4 134.1 169.4
Freight and insurance 9.0 10.6 10.4 15.1 26.6 31.8 31.0 44.0 64.5 93.3
Travel 5.1 5.9 7.8 10.0 10.1 11.8 12.8 16.5 19.6 31.4
Other services 10.4 9.6 9.2 8.7 16.3 29.4 26.2 30.9 50.0 44.7

Goods and non-factor service balance -11.7 -20.1 -0.6 -5.7 -45.4 -90.3 -94.3 -119.0 -220.4 -345.6

Net factor payments -9.9 -10.0 -11.2 -10.0 -12.7 -13.3 -15.1 -15.6 -24.1 -15.5
o.w. interest (-7.4) (-7.6) (-8.8) (-8.2) (-10.8) (-11.9) (-14.0) (-14.0) (-19.0) (-10.0)

Net unrequited transfers 5.2 7.7 6.5 5.7 3.9 14.0 4.2 1.2 5.8 7.4
Private 2.0 3.9 2.4 2.0 0.4 9.3 0.3 -0.6 0.3 2.9
Public 3.2 3.8 4.1 3.7 3.5 4.7 3.9 1.8 5.5 4.5

Current account balance -16.4 -22.4 -5.3 -10.0 -54.2 -89.6 -105.2 -133.4 -238.7 -353.7

Direct investment 3.8 8.0 2.9 9.2 20.7 14.2 11.4 17.0 21.9 51.9

Private long-term loans (net) 7.6 8.4 10.0 10.7 17.4 16.3 5.6 15.0 26.3 52.4
Disbursement 7.-6 9.11 10.4 11.8 23.9 23.7 15.3 28.7 3i
8.-2 75.3
Amortization - 0.7 0.4 1.1 6.5 7.4 9.7 13.7 11.9 22.9

Itaipu Binational (net) - - - - 1.5 43.0 71.9 142.9 199.0 231.1

Yacireta Binational (net) - - - - - 2.6 4.8 6.1 23.2 65.3

Public lon -term loans (net) 14.6 21.4 18.8 16.5 30.9 44.4 58.4 106.9 108.6 58.6
Disbursement/2 21.5 29.1 27.3 26.2 40.6 57.3 69.9 122.7 128.1 84.4
Central government (5.3) (10.3) (10.0) (8.5) (11.0) (31.1) (46.7) (42.2) (46.9) (63.2)
Municipalities (-) (-) (-) (0.2) (0.3) (0.5) (1.0) (0.4) (10.1) (0.2)
Official banks (11.3) (7.4) (8.4) (4.5) (11.5) (15.7) (7.6) (6.5) (8.1) (5.3)
Public corporations (4.9) (11.4) (8.9) (13.0) (17.8) (10.0) (14.6) (73.6) (63.0) (15.7)
Amortization 6.9 7.7 8.5 9.7 9.7 12.9 11.5 15.8 19.5 25.8
Central government (3.1) (2.8) (3.1) (3.1) (3.4) (3.7) (3.7) (6.7) (6.7) (7.9)
Municipalities (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) (0.2)
Official banks (2.4) (1.9) (2.8) (3.8) (4.2) (5.6) (4.3) (4.4) (6.6) (6.0)
Public corporations (1.2) (2.8) (2.4) (2.8) (2.1) (3.6) (3.5) (4.7) (6.2) (11.7)

Holdings of Guaranies -0.5 0.7 1.5 2.0 1.0 -2.7 -3.7 1.9 5.7 6.5

SDR Allocations 2.5 2.0 2.2 - - - - _ - 3.0

Errors and omissions -3.1 -15.2 -17.0 -8.7 25.1 1.2 6.9 -47.5 22.7 53.4

Change in net reserves (-increase) -8.5 -2.9 -13.1 -19.7 -42.4 -29.4 -50.1 -108.9 -168.7 -168.5
Central bank -5.0 -0.9 -11.6 -22.3 -32.4 -26.3 -38.6 -110.6 -178.8 -]L55.2
Assets ( (-4.3) (-0.8) (-9.4) (-25.2) (-32.1) (-26.3) (-42.3) (-110.6) (-181.2) (-:L64.3)
Liabilities (-0.7) (-0.1) (-2.2) (2.9) (-0.3) ( - ) (3.7) ( -- ) (2.4) (9.1)
Rest of banking system -3.5 -2.0 -1.5 2.6 -10.0 -3.1 -11.5 1.7 10.1 --13.3

1/ Based on official figures.

2/ Includes public debt repayable in local currency, data from IBRD external debt files.

Source: Central Bank; World Bank Estimates; IMF.

 - 124 -

Table 3.2: PARAGUAY- MERCHANDISEEXPORTS, 1970-79

(Value: 000 USS (FOB); Volume: tons)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

1. Wood Products (value) 12,533 10,288 9,505 11,783 24,696 27,872 12,135 19,912 20,342 42,243
Value 12,533 10,288 9,505 11,783 24,696 27,872 12,135 19,912 20,342 42,343
Volume 192,936 149,594 103,325 114,825 151,713 116,748 75,452 113,327 122,403 225,079

1. Logs/l
Value 6,479 4,337 796 - - - - - - -
Volume 130,236 88,410 14,830 -
US$/ton 49.75 49.06 53.67 - - - - -

2. Lumber
Value 4,994 4,770 7,223 9,786 21,213 22,184 9,130 15,801 14,675 32,167
Volume 58,457 56,818 83,829 107,451 142,773 107,012 67,308 100,969 99,793 187,981
US$/ton 85.43 83.95 86.16 91.07 148.58 207.30 135.65 156.49 147.05 171.12

3. Manufactured
Value 1,060 1,181 1,486 1,997 3,483 5,688 3,005 4,111 5,667 10,076
Volume 4,243 4,366 4,666 7,374 8,940 9,736 8,144 12,358 22,610 37,098
US$/ton 249.82 270.50 318.47 270.82 389.60 584.22 368.98 332.66 250.64 271.60

11. Livestock Products (value) 17,990 23,003 34,349 45,720 40,485 34,688 24,563 28,130 32,293 11,836
1. Beef
Value 15,333 20,890 30,003 40,880 35,172 32,149 21,206 22,171 23,596 5,660
Volume 25,786 57,851 38,920 42,274 21,293 22,019 13,886 18,892 18,813 7,276

a) Canned meat
Value 8,930 10,864 12,193 15,623 17,518 23,743 13,785 15,200 18,303 489
Volume 12,550 11,031 10,621 12,395 8,512 15,077 8,693 9,638 11,670 307

i) Corned beef
Value 7,830 9,324 10,750 14,179 16,479 23,149 13,121 14,573 17,287 489
Volume 11,106 9,651 9,399 11,221 7,852 14,665 8,273 9,249 11,055 307
US$/ton 705.02 966.12 1,143.74 1,263.61 2,098.70 1,578.52 1,586.00 1,575.63 1,562.91 1,592.83

ii) Cubed beef

Value 745 1,308 1,204 1,147 972 594 612 627 1,016 -
Volume 1,013 1,106 960 883 603 412 378 380 615 -
US$/ton 735.44 1,182.64 1,254.17 1,298.98 1,611.94 1,441.75 1,619.05 1,611.83 1,652.03 -

iii) Other canned beef

Value 355 232 239 297 67 - 52 - - -
Volume 431 274 262 291 57 - 42 -
US$/ton 823.67 846.72 912.21 1,020.62 1,175.44 - 1,238.10 - - -

b) Frozen meat
Value 4,691 7,523 15,537 21,390 11,278 5,707 2,052 3,790 3,782 4,341
Volume 9,564 12,428 19,242 20,317 7,245 4,091 1,602 2,797 2,471 3,905
US$/ton 490.49 605.33 807.45 1,082.81 1,556.66 1,395.01 1,280.90 1,355.02 1,530.55 1,111.65

c) Meat extract
Value 1,153 1,926 1,204 2,776 4,983 1,848 4,252 2,037 8)9 339
Volume 268 439 276 500 421 151 409 421 234 88
US$/ton 4,302.24 4,387.24 4,362.32 5,552.00 11,836.10 12,238.41 10,396.09 4,838.48 3,841.88 3,852.27

d) Beef by-products
Value 559 547 1,069 1,091 1,393 851 1,117 1,144 972 491
Volume 3,404 3,953 8,781 9,062 5,115 2,700 3,182 6,036 4,438 2,976
US$/ton 164.22 138.38 121.74 120.39 272.34 315.19 351.04 189.53 219.02 164.99

2. Horse meat
Value 840 381 437 763 456 200 263 98 96 41
Volume 2,594 1,230 1,355 1,827 672 264 439 164 161 69
US$/ton 323.82 309.76 322.51 417.62 678.57 757.58 599.09 597.56 596.27 594.20

3. Hides and skins

Value 1,619 1,517 3,663 3,909 4,484 1,978 2,743 5,505 7,843 6,126
Volume 8,638 8,324 10,631 9,356 8,364 7,723 5,461 6,894 10,369 6,698
US$/ton 187.43 182.24 344.56 417.81 536.11 256.12 502.29 798.52 756.39 914.60

4. Other meat products

Value 198 215 246 168 373 361 351 356 398 9
Volume 584 497 846 591 1,080 858 1,000 1,017 1,138 25
US$/ton 339.04 432.60 290.78 284.26 345.37 420.75 351.00 350.05 349.74 360.00
 - 125 -

Table 3.2: PARAGUAY- MERCHANDISE EXPORT$, 1970-79 (cont'd)

(Value: 000 US$ (FOD); Volume; tons)

Page 2

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

:II. Agricultural Products (value) 32,242 30,271 40,321 67,193 98,347 106,058 138,925 225,935 197,308 245,981
1. Tobacco
Value 5,765 4,766 6,682 7,457 11,440 12,017 14,692 13,658 9,246 8,547
Volume 19,344 16,069 21,451 17,524 24,055 24,959 27,456 22,348 14,762 12,483
USS/ton 298.03 296.60 311.50 425.53 475.58 481.57 535.11 611.15 626.34 684.69

2. Cotton
Value 4,048 834 3,815 11,622 16.500 20,107 34,610 80,487 100,024 98,596
Volume 11,216 2,887 7,593 18,606 17,465 26,525 32,638 58,813 83,595 76,694
USS/ton 360.91 288.88 502.44 624.64 944.75 758.04 1,060.42 1,368.52 1,196.53 1,285.58

3. Soybeans and other seeds

Value 1,475 1,848 4,983 12,155 20,372 19,092 34,141 58,828 41,632 81,349
Volume 17,098 22,237 54,130 59,926 121,244 111,787 219,691 253,669 208,003 347,213
USV/ton 86.27 83.10 92.06 202.83 168.02 170,79 155.40 231.91 200.15 234.29

4. Vegetables
Value 257 1,053 375 461 2,030 4,942 1,251 1,469 2,358 3,208
Volume 2,810 6,382 3,900 3,750 9,810 35,790 4,806 3,534 5,039 6,002
US$/ton 91.46 165.00 96.15 122.93 206.93 138.08 260.30 415.68 467.95 534.49

5. Fresh Fruits
Value 72 322 203 109 616 804 421 344 248 259
Volume 1,087 3,553 3,506 1,723 4,436 2,874 1,874 1,506 1,291 1,237
US$/ton 66.24 90.63 57.90 63.26 138.86 279.75 224.65 228.42 192.10 209.38

6. Canned Fruit
Value 583 678 584 1,026 1,141 1,483 793 1,054 359 694
Volume 1,863 2,412 2,218 3,792 2,735 1,843 1,043 1,626 664 826
US$/ton 312.94 281.09 263.30 270.57 417.18 804.67 760.31 648.22 540.66 840.19

7. Coffee
Value 881 1,014 3,117 2,661 3,986 8,718 7,810 10,092 213 4,193
Volume 1,269 1,473 4,150 2,843 4,025 5,935 3,559 1,869 60 1,111
US8/ton 694.25 688.39 751.08 935.98 990.31 1,468.91 2,194.44 5,399.68 3,550.00 3,774.08

8. Vegetable Oils
Value 6,992 8,166 5,695 6,611 13,353 10,610 17,211 29,387 16,816 19,111
Volume 22,269 32,139 28,945 21,938 28,490 20,429 30,166 28,280 19,124 21,044

a) Tung
Value 3,527 3,745 3,090 1,938 6,495 4,683 10,570 21,985 9,190 11,239
Volume 10,069 17,533 21,115 6,655 14,041 11,057 16,127 15,841 5,779 10,442
US$/ton 350.28 213.60 146.34 291.21 462.57 423.53 655.42 1,387.85 1,590.24 1,076.32

b) Coco
Value 2,906 3,877 2,366 3,244 5,598 4,388 4,496 5,863 4,770 6,367
Volume 10,489 12,787 7,104 11,652 12,547 7,041 10,003 10,008 7,425 7,586
US$/ton 277.05 303.20 333.05 278.41 446.16 623.21 449.47 585.83 642.42 839.31

c) Soya bean
Value 416 195 134 1,266 907 97 133 157 226 113
Volume 1,209 508 379 3,442 1,482 93 220 218 460 150
US$/ton 344.37 383.86 353.56 367.81 612.01 1,043.01 604.55 720.18 491.30 753.33

d) Other
Value 143 349 105 163 353 1,442 2,012 1,382 2,630 1,392
Volume 503 1,311 347 189 420 2,238 3,816 2,213 5,460 2,866
US$/ton 284.29 266.21 302.59 862.43 840.48 644.33 527.25 624.49 481.68 485.69

9. Pellets and expellers

Value 2,834 3,026 3,353 11,276 5,964 5,147 8,028 10,277 10,203 14,143
Volume 59,670 53,020 60,442 81,527 70,452 71,709 86,915 86,986 105,525 115,032
US$/ton 47.49 57.07 55.47 138.31 84.65 71.78 92.37 118.15 96.69 122.95
10. Petit grain oil
Value 1,797 1,932 2,028 5,878 5,542 2,525 3.592 2,910 2,248 2,558
Volume 448 424 350 495 267 278 497 366 294 293
US$/ton 4,011.16 4,556.60 5,794.29 11,874.75 20,756.55 9,082.73 7,227.36 7,950.82 7,646.26 8,730.38

11. Peppermint oil

Value 91 208 744 1,471 2,324 7,053 7,420 8,689 5,754 6,553
Volume 22 39 160 292 211 522 908 856 593 763
US$/ton 4,136.36 5,333.33 4,650.00 5,037.67 11,014.22 13,511.49 8,171.87 10,150.70 9,703.20 8,588.47

12. Other essential oils

Value 158 175 233 313 505 177 597 692 495 621
Volume 164 117 164 189 163 42 156 178 122 152
US/ton 963.41 1,495.73 1,420.73 1,656.08 3,098.16 4,214.29 3,826.92 3,887.64 4,057.38 4,085.53
 - 126 -

Table 3.2: PARAGUAY- MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, 1970-79 (cont'd)

(Value: 000 USS (FOB); Volume: tons)

Page 3

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

13. Quebracho extract

Value 1,961 2,214 2,396 2,405 877 2,543 3,677 5,284 5,160 3,178
Volume 14,485 15,241 16,054 16,054 5,218 12,665 15,110 14,997 14,960 9,782
US$/ton 135.38 145.27 149.25 149.81 168.07 200.79 243.35 352.34 344.92 324.88

14. Canned palmito

Value 4,110 3,215 3,611 2,079 2,488 3,121 1,417 1,663 1,528 1,763
Volome 8,333 6,195 6,455 3,607 3,370 2,464 12,39 1,121 1,018 1,074
US$/ton 493.22 518.97 559.41 576.38 738.28 1,266.64 1,143.66 1,483.50 1,500.98 1,641.53

15. Corn
Value 635 419 23 216 415 572 1,205 - - -
Volume 23,281 15,036 862 3,241 4,580 5,815 12,000 -
US$/ton 27.28 27.87 26.68 66.65 90.61 98.31 100.42 - - -

16. Other cereals

Value 41 152 26 41 467 63 294 182 116 24
Volume 1,858 2,134 192 562 2,720 150 1,458 1,195 810 120
US$/ton 22.07 71.23 135.42 72.95 171.69 420.00 201.65 152.30 143.21 200.00

17. Sugar
Value 32 146 2,142 1,349 10,100 6,815 1,263 96 115 52
Volume 151 962 12,743 7,890 20,130 13,734 3,795 98 123 75
US$/ton 211.92 151.77 168.09 170.98 501.74 496.21 332.81 979.59 934.96 693.33

18. 'ferba mate

Value 510 103 311 63 227 269 503 823 793 1,132
Volume 5,330 1,063 2,928 574 1,490 679 1,348 1.994 1,785 1,844
US$/ton 95.68 96.90 106.22 109.76 152.32 396.17 373.15 412.74 444.26 613.88

IV. Cement 318 476 268 124 1,036 647 - - - -

Value 318 476 268 124 1,036 647 - - - -
Volume 16,580 28,776 16,040 8,195 28,740 16,757 - - - -
US$/ton 19.18 16.54 16.71 15.13 36.05 38.61 - - - -

V. Others 987 1,166 1,744 2,108 5,242 7.446 6,211 4,914 7,041 5,116
1. Palms
Value 108 122 90 38 48 133 23 104 233 -
Volume 2,369 2,716 2,000 768 970 1,556 300 1,205 1,940 -
US$/ton 45.59 44.92 45.00 49.48 49.48 85.48 76.67 86.31 120.10 -

2. Skins of wild animals

Value 516 213 226 259 793 1,063 382 923 1,573 846
Volume 114 83 96 117 156 35 71 69 95 42
US$/ton 4,526.32 2,566.27 2,354.16 2,213.68 5,083.33 30,371.40 5,380.28 13,376.81 16,557.89 20,142.86

3. Silkworm cacoons
Value - 128 357 841 965 1,082 1,463 866 1,377 1,461
Volume - 33 80 116 126 141 126 72 90 85
US$/ton - 3,878.79 4,462.50 7,250.00 7,720.00 7,673.76 11,611.11 12,027.78 15,300.00 17,188.24

4. Others
Value 363 763 1,073 970 3,436 5,168 4,343 3,021 3,858 2,809

Total aforo value 64,070 65,204 86,187 126,928 169,806 176,711 181,834 278,891 256,984 305,176

Balance of payment adjustments 7,300 11,746 28,023 51,722 33,954 44,959 53,200 64,800 163,800 215,100

Total merchandise exports 71,370 76,950 114,210 178,650 203,760 221.670 235.034 343,691 420,784 520.276
 - 127 -

Table 3.2a: PARAGUAY - EXPORT PRICE INDEX, 1970-79

(1977 = 100)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

1. Wood Products/Il 57.3 57.5 59.4 61.2 97.5 139.5 91.6 100.0 87.9 101.2
1. Logs - - - - - - - - -
2. Lumner 54.6 53.6 55.1 58.2 94.9 132.5 86.7 100.0 94.0 109.2
3. Manufactured 75.1 81.3 95.7 81.4 117.1 175.6 110.9 100.0 75.3 81.6

II. Livestock products/2 41.3 51.4 62.0 76.3 120.2 93.3 104.9 100.0 99.3 97.3
1. Beef/2 44.0 56.2 65.5 79.9 134.2 105.2 115.0 100.0 100.9 83.6
a) Canned beef 44.8 62.6 73.1 80.2 130.8 99.9 100.6 100.0 99.4 101.1
i) Corned beef 44.7 61.3 72.6 80.2 133.2 100.2 100.7 100.0 99.2 101.1
ii) Cubed beef 45.6 73.4 77.8 80.6 100.0 89.4 100.4 100.0 102.5 -
iii) Other canned beef - - - - - - - - - -
b) Frozon meat 36.2 44.7 59.6 77.7 114.9 103.0 94.5 100.0 113.0 82.0
c) Meat extract 88.9 90.7 90.2 114.7 224.6 252.9 214.9 100.0 79.4 79.6
d) Meat by-products 86.6 73.0 64.2 63.5 143.7 166.3 185.2 100.0 115.6 87.1

2. Horse meat 54.2 51.8 54.0 69.9 113.6 126.8 100.3 100.0 99.8 99.4
3. Hides and skins 23.5 22.8 43.1 52.3 67.1 32.1 62.9 100.0 94.7 114.5
4. Other meat products 96.9 123.6 83.1 81.2 98.7 120.2 100.3 100.0 99.9 1.02.8

III. Agricultural products/3 33.8 32.6 29.4 53.7 59.6 57.0 68.5 100.0 89.7 97.1
1. Tobacco 48.8 48.5 51.0 69.6 77.8 78.8 87.6 100.0 102.5 112.0
2. Cotton 26.4 21.1 36.7 45.6 69.0 55.4 77.5 100.0 87.4 93.9
3. Soybeans and other seeds 37.2 35.8 29.7 87.5 72.5 73.6 67.0 100.0 86.3 101.0
4. Vegetables 22.0 39.7 23.1 29.6 49.8 33.2 62.6 100.0 112.b 128.6
5. Fresh fruits 29.0 39.7 25.3 27.7 60.8 122.5 98.4 100.0 84.1 91.7
6. Canned fruits 48.3 43.4 40.6 41.7 64.4 124.1 117.3 100.0 83.4 129.6
7. Coffee 12.9 12.7 13.9 17.3 18.3 27.2 40.6 100.0 65.7 69.9
8. Vegetable oils 32.9 24.8 16.8 35.5 47.5 50.8 56.1 100.0 104.6 92.0
a) Tung 25.3 15.5 10.6 21.1 33.5 30.6 47.4 100.0 115.1 77.9
b) Cocoa 47.3 51.8 56.9 47.5 76.2 106.4 76.7 100.0 109.7 143.3
c) Soya beans 47.8 53.3 49.1 51.1 85.0 144.8 83.9 100.0 68.2 1]04.6
d) Others 45.5 42.6 48.4 138.1 134.6 103.2 84.4 100.0 77.1 77.8
9. Pellets and expellers 40.2 48.3 47.0 117.1 71.7 60.7 78.2 100.0 81.8 104.1
10. Petit grain oil 50.4 57.3 72.9 149.4 261.1 114.2 90.9 100.0 96.2 1,09.8
11. Peppermint oil 40.7 52.5 45.8 49.6 108.5 133.1 80.5 100.0 95.6 84.6
12. Other essential oils 24.8 38.5 36.5 42.6 79.7 108.4 98.4 100.0 104.4 105.1
13. Quebracho extract 38.4 41.2 42.4 42.5 47.7 57.0 69.1 100.0 97.9 92.2
14. Canned palmito 33.2 35.0 37.7 38.9 49.8 85.4 77.1 100.0 101.2 110.7
15. Corn - - - - - - - - - -
16. Other cereals 14.5 46.8 88.9 47.9 112.7 275.8 132.4 100.0 94.0 131.3
17. Sugar 21.6 15.5 17.2 17.5 51.2 50.7 34.0 100.0 95.4 70.8
18. Yerba mate 23.2 23.5 25.7 26.6 36.9 96.0 90.4 100.0 107.6 1L48.7

IV. Cement - - - - - -

V. Others 36.7 86.7 34.2 45.6 62.4 76.6 73.9 100.0 104.1 :L14.9
1. Palms 52.8 52.0 52.1 57.3 57.3 99.0 88.8 100.0 139.2 -
2. Skins of wild animals 33.8 19.2 17.6 16.5 38.0 227.0 '40.2 100.0 123.8 [50.6
3. Silkworm cocoons - 32.2 37.1 60.3 64.1 63.8 96.5 100.0 127.2 142.9
4. Others 37.7 39.9 40.0 60.7 72.7 69.9 73.4 100.0 91.0 97.9

Total aforo value 37.7 39.9 40.0 60.7 72.7 69.6 73.4 100.0 91.0 97.9

Balance of payment adjustments 37.7 39.9 40.0 60.7 72.7 69.6 73.4 100.0 91.0 97.9

Total merchandise exports 37.7 39.9 40.0 60.7 72.7 69.6 73.4 100.0 91.0 97.9

Non-factor services/4 44.9 48.6 53.5 63.8 79.1 90.5 92.1 100.0 118.3 135.5
Total Exports, Goods & nfs 39.4 41.8 42.0 61.1 73.7 72.3 75.5 100.0 95.4 104.9

/1 Excludes logs
/2 Excludes other canned beef
/3 Excludes corn
7R International Price Index, EPDIT, October, 1980
 - 128 -

Table 3.2b: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS IN CONSTANT PRICES, 1970-79

(in thousands of 1977 US$)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

1. Wood products 10,559 10,344 14,671 19,268 25,317 19,986 13,242 19,912 23,138 41,759
1. Logs - - - - - - - - - -
2. Lumber 9,148 8,892 13,119 16,815 22,343 16,747 10,533 15,801 15,617 29,418
3. Manufactured 1,411 1,452 1,552 2,453 2,974 3,239 2,709 4,111 7,521 12,341

II. Livestock products 42,685 44,258 55,025 59,540 33,626 37,181 23,370 28,130 32,506 12,165
1. Beef 34,033 36,703 45,430 50,770 26,167 30,556 18,397 22,171 23,731 6,767
a. Canned meat 19,132 16,989 16,356 19,103 13,344 23,771 13,644 15,200 18,410 484
i) Corned beef 17,499 15,206 14,809 17,680 12,372 23,107 13,035 14,573 17,419 484
ii) Cubed beef 1,633 1,783 1,547 1,423 972 664 609 627 991 -
iii) Other canned beef - - - - - - - - - -

b. Frozen meat 12,959 16,840 26,073 27,530 9,817 5,543 2,171 3,790 3,348 5,291
c. Meat extract 1,297 2,124 1,335 2,419 2,037 731 1,979 2,037 1,132 426
d. Beef by products 645 750 1,666 1,718 969 511 603 1,144 841 566

2. Horse meat 1,550 735 810 1,092 402 158 262 98 96 41

3. Hides and skins 6,898 6,647 8,489 7,471 6,679 6,167 4,361 5,505 8,280 5,348
4. Other meat products 204 173 296 207 378 300 350 356 399 9

III.Agriculturalproducts 93,428 91,572 137,297 124,778 164,213 185,144 201,106 225,935 219,944 253,343
1. Tobacco 11,822 9,821 13,110 10,710 14,701 15,254 16,780 13,658 9,022 7,629
2. Cotton 15,349 3,951 10,391 25,463 23,901 36,300 44,666 80,847 114,402 104,958
3. Soybeans and other seeds 3,965 5,157 12,553 13,897 28,118 25,924 50,948 58,828 48,238 80,522
4. Vegetables 1,168 2,653 1,621 1,559 4,078 14,877 1,998 1,469 2,095 2,495
5. Fresh fruits 248 812 801 394 1,013 656 428 344 295 283
6. Canned fruit 1,208 1,563 1,438 2,458 1,773 1,195 676 1,054 430 535
7. Coffee 6,852 7,954 22,409 15,351 21,734 32,047 19,217 10,092 324 5,999
8. Vegetable oils 21,247 32,909 33,836 18,621 28,087 20,872 30,692 29,387 16,078 20,775
a. Tung 13,917 24,234 29,185 9,198 19,407 15,283 22,290 21,985 7,988 14,433
b. Cocoa 6,145 7,491 4,162 6,826 7,350 4,125 5,860 5,863 4,350 4,444
c. Soya beans 871 366 273 2,479 1,067 67 158 157 331 108
d. Others 314 818 216 118 263 1,397 2,384 1,382 3,409 1,790
9. Pellets and expellers 7,050 6,264 7,141 9,632 8,324 8,472 10,269 10,277 12,467 13,591
10. Petit grain oil 3,562 3,371 2,783 3,936 2,123 2,210 3,952 2,910 2,338 2,330
11. Peppermint oil 223 396 1,624 2,964 2,142 5,299 9,217 8,689 6,019 7,745
12. Other essential oils 638 455 638 735 634 163 606 692 474 591
13. Quebrache extract 5,104 5,370 5,656 5,656 1,838 4,462 5,324 5,284 5,271 3,447
14. Canned palmito 12,362 9,190 9,576 5,351 4,999 3,655 1,838 1,663 1,510 1,593
15. Corn - - - - - - - - - -
16. Other cereals 283 325 29 86 414 23 222 182 123 18
17. Sugar 148 942 12,483 7,729 19,719 13,454 3,718 96 120 73
18. Yerba mate 2,200 439 1,208 237 615 280 556 823 737 761

IV. Cement - - _ - - - - -

V. Others 2,692 3,653 5,101 4,624 8,400 9,723 8,409 4,914 6,761 4,453
1. Palms 204 234 173 66 84 134 26 104 167 -
2. Skins of wild animals 1,525 1,110 1,284 1,565 2,087 468 950 923 1,271 562
3. Silkworm cocoons - 397 962 1,395 1,503 1,696 1,516 866 1,083 1,022
4. Others 963 1,912 2,682 1,598 4,726 7,425 5,917 3,021 4,240 2,869
6
Total aforo value 149,364 149,827 212,094 08 ,210
231,55 252,034 246,127 278,891 282,349 311,720

Balance of Payments adjustment 3,263 22,045 56,533 46,247 49,648 74,697 72,480 64,800 180,00 219,714

Total merchandise exports 152,627 171,872 268,627 254,457 281,204 326,731 318,607 343,691 462,349 531,434

Source: Central Bank; Mission Estimates.

 - 129 -

Table 3.3: PARAGUAY

- COMHODITYIMPORTS (FOB), 1970-79

(in thousands of USS)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Food 6,258.6 5,687.2 5,566.1 5,263.7 14,420.1 8,808.2 14,097.6 12,651.0 14,452.6 19,976.7
Wheat 4,301.1 3,664.4 3,534.7 3,289.3 10,721.2 4,284.5 8,828.9 5,548.7 4,879.0 8,277.7
Salt 333.3 356.7 421.8 442.5 479.6 765.8 967.3 986.9 973.2 1,156.5
Fruits 64.6 76.2 63.6 54.4 203.2 297.6 432.0 805.7 942.5 1,006.6
Milk products 594.3 533.1 742.3 529.3 223.1 409.4 87.9 258.3 225.2 229.8
Others 965.3 1,056.8 803.7 948.2 2,793.0 3,050.9 3,781.5 5,051.4 7,432.7 9,306.1

Other consumer goods 14,080.6 16,035.3 14,427.9 18,393.6 33,609.6 39,581.4 33,407.2 48,056.1 64.830.6 90,340.9
Beverages 2,798.5 3,531.1 3,719.0 4,763.4 7,509.5 13,322.5 11,101.2 12,160.1 18,268.5 24,239.0
Tobacco 3,734.8 3,680.6 2,397.5 2,675.2 3,733.7 4,849.6 3,836.2 7,439.0 10,710.4 17,327.6
Cigarettes (3,725.2) (3,660.0) (2,372.5) (2,650.4) (3,508.3) (4,774.3) (3,741.6) (7,286.2) (10,544.1) (16,951.7)
Other tobacco products (9.6) (20.6) (25.0) (24.8) (225.4) (75.3) (94.6) (152.8) (166.3) (375.9)
Writing paper 150.4 197.1 252.4 534.7 1,573.7 988.5 1,156.2 1,162.8 1,776.8 2,560.3
Books, magazines. etc. 253.5 338.3 353.6 176.5 221.5 243.2 254.4 221.8 300.1 352.5
Machetes 46.7 64.5 123.2 203.6 - - - - - -
Electrical appliances 1,357.7 2,165.8 2,715.0 3,371.7 6,663.9 7,618.7 4,631.2 8,649.5 11,224.3 10,882.5
Pharmaceutical products 3,484.9 4,198.2 3,575.8 4,693.6 10,132.8 9,538.1 8,957.1 12,534.7 16,333.7 26,229.0
Clothing and accessories 2,254.1 1,859.7 1,291.4 1,974.9 3,774.5 3,020.8 3,470.9 5,888.2 6,216.8 8,750.0
Wool (224.4) (193.9) (169.4) (89.7) (57.9) (49.3) (69.5) (62.0) (79.9) (68.0)
Silk (1,568.8) (1,207.7) (634.0) (1,567.7) (2,922.7) (2,488.0) (2,842.5) (4,544.4) (4,591.1) (6,678.7)
Sackcloth (295.8) (277.1) (326.6) (193.1) (37.3) (9.5) (80.5) (136.6) (294.7) (520.4)
Others (165.1) (181.0) (161.4) (124.4) (756.6) (474.0) (478.4) (1,145.2) (1,251.1) (1,482.9)

Primary and intermediate goods 19,039.4 22,198.6 19,690.7 28,621.9 32,274.2 39,260.7 36,151.6 49915.5 71,925.9 r7,562.6
Metals 5,526.2 8,339.9 6,955.5 11,419.5 14,086.7 16,072.6 15,578.3 18,775.5 19,877.4 25,347.5
Others 13,513.2 13,858.7 12,735.2 17,202.4 18,187.5 23,188.1 20,573.3 31,140.0 52,048.5 52,215.1

Fuels and lubricants 6,154.9 6,346.6 5,952.5 6,811.9 41,904.4 38,443.1 37,913.8 42,571.0 59,643.7 El7,519.9
Nafta 702.1 815.4 823.9 610.5 2,474.2 3,637.2 5,673.0 5,391.9 8,323.2 1.1,133.9
Oils 789.9 971.3 827.4 1,048.1 4,128.2 1,909.0 2,275.8 3,620.4 3,841.3 4,462.0
Gas Oil 673.9 143.8 118.8 233.9 4,908.4 2,632.8 4,686.3 8,132.2 11,380.6 24,785.5
Crude petroleum 3,884.7 4,136.8 4,108.6 4,793.0 29,826.0 29,147.3 23,534.1 23,478.3 34,637.0 46,021.0
Others 104.3 279.3 73.8 126.4 567.6 1,116.8 1,744.6 1,948.2 1,461.6 1,117.5

Capital goods 18,301.2 20,004.8 24,211.8 45,699.3 49,188.6 59,449.2 58,648.1 102,183.2 106,885.0 146,358.3
Transport 6,038.1 5,751.0 6,609.5 10,504.9 15,570.6 18,001.0 19,940.7 35,526.4 42,576.1 55,538.5
Agricultural machinery 1,494.6 1,453.2 1,949.9 4,372.7 5,752.3 4,822.1 4,087.7 9,801.6 10,478.0 :.1082.7
Machinery 10,768.5 12,800.6 15,652.4 30,821.7 27,865.7 36,626.1 34,619.7 56,E55.2 53,830.9 79,737.1

Total merchandise imports 63,834.7 70,272.5 69,849.0 104,790.4 171,396.9 185,542.6 180,218.3 255,376.8 317,737.8 431,758.4

Balance of payments adjustment 11,765.3 18,727.5 33,151.0 58,009.6 99,203.1 81,257.4 133,956.9 217,100.0 345,000.0 432,100.0

Total merchandise imports - 75,600.0 89,000.0 103,000.0 162,800.0 270,600.0 266.800.0 312,318.3 472476.8 662,737.8 8153,858.4
(adjusted)

Source: Central Bank; IHF

 - 130 -

Table 3.3a: PARAGUAY - IMPORT PRICE INDEX, 1970-79

(1977 - 100)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Food 46.0 45.3 47.7 58.6 106.7 115.0 104.1 100.0 80.8 98.8
Wheat 48.0 47.5 51.2 81.1 120.4 134.9 124.3 100.0 79.9 102.1
Salt 36.9 38.9 37.9 39.7 44.3 84.1 103.0 100.0 106.5 129.8
Fruits 71.4 62.2 57.8 135.3 90.6 115.1 98.1 100.0 101.9 106.3
Milk products 58.4 57.0 61.5 40.0 83.8 105.5 158.1 100.0 100.2 87.1
Others 36.5 37.0 34.4 38.8 92.0 104.2 75.5 100.0 76.4 93.0

Other consumer goods 59.0 61.3 55.1 57.2 74.5 91.8 105.2 100.0 120.6 134.2
Beverages 46.7 61.7 69.4 71.8 83.2 99.3 98.7 100.0 112.6 131.0
Tobacco 58.8 63.7 44.7 55.4 59.5 80.2 89.1 100.0 109.3 122.0
Others 65.6 60.2 53.8 52.9 75.0 90.5 114.1 100.0 129.4 140.9

Primary and intermediate goods 29.3 40.7 37.4 45.6 90.6 119.2 91.6 100.0 112.0 128.5
Metals 55.4 52.8 47.6 56.7 101.5 137.3 116.5 100.0 108.5 140.5
Others 24.6 35.7 33.5 40.3 83.6 109.2 78.9 100.0 113.4 121.5

Fuels and lubricants 22.8 27.2 29.3 29.8 116.8 129.7 100.5 100.0 106.6 172.4
Nafta 24.1 33.8 25.6 35.3 106.6 105.1 100.8 100.0 109.1 160.3
Oils 38.1 41.0 52.8 49.1 81.0 92.3 106.5 100.0 100.4 103.1
Gas oil 27.5 42.0 28.0 20.6 114.0 125.1 100.2 100.0 114.6 263.0
Crude petroleum 20.1 23.6 27.4 27.8 125.8 137.1 98.8 100.0 104.5 156.3
Others 41.9 42.7 77.6 18.9 133.5 152.1 117.5 100.0 103.2 175.6

Capital goods 51.2 49.6 58.7 62.8 63.6 86.1 81.1 100.0 103.6 113.5

Total merchandise imports 38.6 44.8 45.9 52.5 82.6 101.7 92.5 100.0 107.2 128.7

Balance of payments adjustment 38.6 44.8 45.9 52.5 82.6 101.7 92.5 100.0 107.2 128.7

Total merchandise imports - adjusted 38.6 44.8 45.9 52.5 82.6 101.7 92.5 100.0 107.2 128.7

Non-factor services-/ 44.9 48.6 53.5 63.8 79.1 90.5 92.1 100.0 118.3 135.5

Total imports, goods and nfs 40.2 45.8 47.8 54.9 81.8 98.3 92.4 100.0 110.3 130.6

Source: Central Bank and mission estimates.

/1 InternationalPrice Index, EPDIT, October 1980

 -131 -

Table 3.3b: IMPORTS (FOB) IN CONSTANTPRICES,

PARAGUAY- C0OMMODITY 1970-79

(in thousands of 1977 USS)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Food 13,613.3 12,554.3 11,664.3 8,979.8 13,512.7 7,661.7 13,548.0 12,651.0 17,895.8 20,211.3
Wheat 8,956.6 7,720.7 6,899.5 4,056.4 8,902.5 3,177.4 7,100.4 5,549.0 6,107.1 8,104.5
Salt 901.5 918.5 1,113.5 1,116.6 1,083.0 910.5 939.1 987.0 913.3 891.7
Fruits 91.0 122.2 110.6 39.9 224.2 259.0 440.4 806.0 925.7 946.0
Milk products 1,016.8 935.9 1,206.0 1,321.4 266.1 387.5 55.6 258.0 224.6 264.1
Others 2,647.4 2,857.0 2,334.7 2,445.5 3,036.9 2,927.3 5,012.5 5,051.0 9,725.1 10,005.0

Other consumer goods Z3,777.4 26,056.9 25,939.2 31,790.7 45,131.5 43,117.2 31,742.1 48,056.1 53,252.1 67,314.8
Beverages 5,996.9 5,724.3 5,358.8 6,636.4 9,023.8 13,410.6 11,250.9 12,160.0 16,218.8 18,496.9
Tobacco 6,352.9 5,779.1 5,364.1 4,831.3 6,270.9 6,045.5 4,303.6 7,439.0 9,795.7 14,206.9
Others 11,427.6 14,553.5 15,216.3 20,323.0 29,836.8 23,661.1 16,187.6 28,457.1 27,237.6 34,611.0

Primary and intermediate goods 64,908.3 54,619.4 52,600.5 62,826.8 35.627.8 32.939.3 39,454.8 49,915.5 64,211.6 68,119.5
Metals 9,971.4 15,783.4 14,617.8 20,137.9 13,874.8 11,707.9 13,377.1 18,775.5 18,328.9 25,155.9
Others 54,936.9 38,836.0 37,982.7 42,688.9 21,753.0 21,231.4 26,077.7 31,140.0 45,882.7 42,963.5

Fuels and lubricants 27,017.7 23,305.1 20,328.9 22.880.9 35,861.5 29,631.9 37,742.5 42,571.0 55,950.3 50,775.6
Nafta 2,908.9 2,408.5 3,224.1 1,728.8 2,321.8 3,459.1 5,630.2 5,391.9 7,628.1 6,945.1
Oils 2,075.2 2,370.1 1,567.1 2,135.3 5,096.4 2,067.2 2,136.6 3,620.4 3,824.6 4,328.0
Gas oils 2,455.2 342.7 424.9 1,136.5 4,306.2 2,104.9 4,676.3 8,132.2 9,930.8 9,425.7
Crude petroleum 19,329.3 17,530.1 15,017.8 17,210.7 23,712.1 21,266.4 23,815.1 23,478.3 33,150.6 29,440.4
Others 249.1 653.7 95.0 669.6 425.0 734.3 1,484.3 1,948.2 1,416.2 636.4

Capital goods 35,771.5 40,300.3 41,256.1 72,767.1 77,283.3 69,020.7 72,325.2 102,183.2 105,095.9 128,972.0

Total merchandise imports 165,088.2 156,835.9 151,789.0 199.245.3 207,416.8 182,370.8 194,812.6 255,376.8 296,405.7 335,393.2

Balance of payments adjustment 30,448.5 41,830.5 72,161.5 110,515.5 120,042.5 79,867.7 144,802.6 217,100.0 321,828.4 292,929.3

Total merchandise imports -

adjusted 195,536.7 198,666.4 223,950.5 309,760.8 327,459.3 262,238.5 339,615.2 472,476.8 618,234.1 628,322.5

Source: Central Bank and mission estimates? IMF

 - 132 -

Table 3.4: PARAGUAY - DIRECTION OF TRADE, 1970-79 /

(in thousands of US$)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Exports (FOB)
Argentina 17,573 17,836 15,678 16,206 38,545 49,676 17,950 35,822 24,152 51,009
Spain 3,679 2,417 3,216 2,739 4,548 4,610 2,791 3,780 6,783 5,569
U.K. 4,701 3,623 7,478 8,618 14,684 18,350 10,910 13,455 14,975 625
U.S.A. 9,080 10,418 12,799 16,447 19,367 15,521 21,284 39,530 22,211 17,628
France 3,388 3,014 3,167 5,426 7,127 7,915 10,416 13,161 3,530 5,907
Uruguay 2,654 1,355 621 1,148 1,887 2,281 8,747 12,889 7,013 13,611
Belgium 2,088 2,934 4,210 6,011 5,228 3,752 775 1,076 1,468 1,811
Holland 5,481 4,990 6,181 10,482 15,837 15,104 27,120 42,983 26,497 45,344
Germany 3,489 3,602 14,057 23,316 22,213 22,050 20,390 28,374 38,808 46,407
Italy 378 1,185 701 1,633 2,572 837 2,985 5,548 16,779 21,688
Switzerland 308 402 1,792 6,573 15,605 13,430 21,369 26,326 15,977 21,789
Brazil 1,057 835 729 2,859 6,053 6,173 10,965 16,266 20,416 29,103
Japan 1,170 539 842 1,333 1,800 3,679 6,402 6,403 32,308 16,407
Others 9,025 12,054 14,717 24,136 14,340 13,333 19,730 33,278 26,067 28,278
Total exports 64,071 65,204 86,188 126,927 169,806 176,711 181,834 278,891 256,984 305,176

Imports (FOB)

Argentina 11,839 10,119 10,757 27,479 48,372 33,219 37,754 43,228 48,768 74,040
Spain 552 785 938 920 1,497 1,289 2,811 5,852 3,752 5,361
U.K. 5,482 6,940 5,770 7,789 10,061 16,179 13,653 13,813 30,500 24,192
U.S.A. 14,913 17,900 13,703 17,338 15,551 21,777 18,398 30,867 34,755 49,809
France 1,381 1,953 1,327 1,181 2,546 2,570 2,458 5,184 6,423 8,776
Uruguay 1,487 1,157 1,175 945 2,720 3,509 6,941 8,497 13,428 14,275
Belgium 383 428 488 276 381 1,808 1,445 1,604 1,925 1,820
Holland 656 563 568 636 1,585 999 992 1,028 1,341 2,672
Germany 9,238 8,155 9,998 11,841 14,254 14,534 15,321 22,380 26,191 31,665
Italy 1,287 1,429 2,506 3,442 1,308 2,115 2,059 2,231 3,486 5,371
Switzerland 529 673 366 1,175 969 1,006 992 1,199 1,535 2,297
Brazil 2,043 5,062 10,400 15,547 28,343 37,151 31,198 53,915 62,711 96,371
Japan 4,318 3,942 3,105 4,055 5,794 8,813 8,456 22,847 25,193 36,085
Sweden 1,471 1,272 1,031 1,788 2,683 3,141 2,369 3,787 4,586 4,138
Algeria 3,836 4,104 3,612 5,370 10,498 26,557 23,144 23,478 34,637 50,069
NetherlandAntilles 863 736 392 657 2,084 2,131 1,322 2,298 2,000 1,738
Others 3,557 5,054 3,713 4,351 22,751 8,745 10,905 13,169 16,507 23,079
Tiotalimports (FOB) 63,835 70,272 69,849 104,790 171,397 185,543 180,218 255,377 317,738 431,758

1/ Official figures.
Source: Central Bank and Mission estimates.
 1/
Table 3.5: Export Projections 1981-1990
(in U.S. $ million)

Actual Est. Projected Average Annual Growth Rate

1976 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1990 1980-85 1985-90

Current $
Wood 12.1 42.2 66.6 83.4 101.0 120.0 144.0 176.4 366.8 21.5 15.7
Livestock 24.6 11.8 4.4 23.8 23.4 23.2 23.1 23.0 73.7 39.2 26.2
Soybeans 34.1 81.3 45.2 114.7 143.4 187.5 240.2 298.9 871.0 45.9 23.8
Cotton 34.6 98.6 106.3 120.8 165.9 218.2 282.8 365.6 810.5 28.0 17.3
Other commodities 76.4 71.3 88.8 137.7 163.3 193.8 230.1 273.2 599.9 25.2 17.0
Unregistered exports 53.2 215.1 185.7 288.2 358.2 445.7 552.1 682.2 1633.1 29.7 19.1
Total 235.0 520.3 497.0 768.5 955.2 1188.5 1472.4 1819.3 4355.0 29.6 19.1
Nonfactor services 29.7 95.7 135.7 162.7 194.1 230.6 272.7 321.0 691.8 18.8 16.6
Total exports and nfs 264.7 616.0 632.7 931.2 1149.3 1419.1 1745.2 2140.3 5046.9 27.6 18.7

Constant 1977 $

Wood 13.2 41.8 54.2 60.0 66.0 72.3 80.0 90.0 135.9 10.7 8.6
Livestock 23.4 12.2 4.5 12.0 12.8 13.7 14.7 15.7 22.1 28.4 7.1
Soybeans 50.9 80.5 71.7 94.0 107.0 125.0 143.0 159.0 292.9 17.3 12.9 1
Cotton 44.7 105.0 103.2 115.0 136.0 157.0 179.0 202.0 325.3 14.4 10.0
Other commodities 113.9 69.4 88.8 97.7 107.4 118.2 130.0 143.0 230.3 10.0 10.0 L

Unregistered exports 72.5 219.7 193.4 227.2 257.6 291.7 328.0 365.8 604.0 13.6 10.5 1
Total 318.6 531.4 515.8 605.9 686.9 778.0 874.7 975.6 1610.6 13.6 10.5
Nonfactor services 32.2 70.6 89.0 97.9 107.7 118.4 130.3 143.3 230.8 10.0 10.0
Total exports and nfs 350.8 602.0 604.8 703.8 794.6 896.4 1005.0 1118.9 1841.4 13.1 10.5

1/ Estimates of unregistered exports are based on historical data from trading partners

Sourse: Central Bank, IMF and Mission estimates

 1/
Table 3.6: Import Projections 1981-1990
(in U.S. $ million)

Actual Est. Projected Average Annual Growth Rate

1976 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1990 1980-85 1985-90

Current $

Food 14.1 20.0 19.4 21.4 23.6 27.8 32.2 38.0 71.6 14.4 13.5
Other consumer goods 33.4 90.3 100.9 114.9 138.8 171.4 206.2 255.3 577.3 20.4 17.7
Fuels and lubricants 37.9 87.5 113.4 140.8 173.8 212.9 260.8 318.9 736.7 23.0 18.2
Intermediate goods 36.2 87.6 97.4 118.4 143.0 171.9 205.6 243.4 527.5 20.1 16.7
Capital goods 58.6 146.4 158.4 174.0 203.6 225.2 277.1 296.9 566.5 13.4 13.8
Unregistered imports 134.0 432.1 470.5 541.3 642.1 746.9 893.8 1022.9 2073.1 16.8 15.2
Total 312.3 863.9 960.0 1110.8 1324.8 1556.1 1875.6 2175.5 4552.7 17.8 15.9
70.0 169.4 222.9 266.4 316.3 373.8 439.7 514.0 1056.5 18,2 15.5 H
Nonfactor services
382.3 1033.3 1182.9 1377.2 1641.1 1929.9 2315.2 2689.5 5609.2 17.9 15.8 1
Total imports and nfs

Constant 1977 U.S._$

Food 13.5 20.2 18.7 20.0 21.3 22.8 24.1 25.9 35.1 6.7 6.3
Other consumer goods 31.7 67.3 69.7 77.5 85.2 94.9 103.1 115.5 184.5 10.6 9.8
Fuels and lubricants 37.7 50.8 42.5 47.0 51.9 57.3 63.2 69.6 102.6 10.4 8.1
Intermediate goods 39.5 68.1 69.2 77.2 85.9 95.7 106.4 117.8 190.7 11.2 10.1
Capital goods 72.3 129.0 131.7 132.7 143.1 146.6 167.7 168.0 239.5 5.0 7.3
Unregistered imports 144.8 292.9 319.0 336.7 368.1 396.4 441.3 472.o 714.9 8.2 8.7
Total 339.6 628.3 650.8 691.1 755.5 813.7 905.8 968.9 1467.4 8.3 8.7
Nonfactor services 76.0 125.0 146.2 160.3 175.4 192.0 210.1 229.5 352.5 9.4 9.0
Total imports and nfs 415.6 753.3 797.0 851.4 930.9 1005.7 1115.9 1198.4 1819.9 8.5 8.7

1/ Estimates of unregistered imports are based on historical data from trading partners

Source: Central Bank, IMF, and Mission estimates

 Table 4.1: PARAGLTAY PAGE I

PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979
EXTERNAL
DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
-(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

D E B T O U T S T A N D I N G I N A R R E A R S
TYPE OF FLOW
----------------------------------- :----------------------
TYPE OF CREDITOR
DISBURSED :UNDISBURSED: TOTAL PRINCIPAL INTEREST
CREDITOR COUNTRY

REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT

SUPPLIERS CREDITS
28.096 2,392 30.488 238 78
ARGENTINA
- 2,000 2.000 - -
AUSTRIA
9.977 3.749 13.726 76 33
BRAZIL
OF 16.t22 49.211 65.333 71 208
GERMANY. FED.REP.
2,664 363 3.027 1.204 -
ITALY
98 417. 515 - -
SWEDEN
208 - 208 2tO 16
SWITZERLAND
2.471 1.516 3.987 279 102
UNITED STATES
CREDITS 59.636 59.648 119.284 2.078 437
TOTAL SUPPLIERS

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
3.655 15.862 19.517 - . -
ARGENTINA
68,795 9,661 78.456 - -
BRAZIL
CANADA 5.000 - 55000 -
- 2.996 2.996 - -
FRANCE
GERMANY. FEO.REP. OF 1.510 - 1.510 - -
- 19.903 19.903 - -I
NETHERLANDS
4,297 - 4.297 - -
PANAMA
201 1.555 1,756 - -
SWEDEN
UNITED KINGDOM 12.225 - 12.225 - 262
5,470 7.000 12.470 - -
UNITED STATES
INSTITUTIONS 101,153 56,977 158,130 - 262
TOTAL FINANCIAL

NATIONALIZATION
69 - 69 18 -
UNITED KINGDOM
69 - 69 i8 -
TOTAL NATIONALIZATION

MULTILATERAL LOANS
2,410 790 3.200 - -
BIA AHORROS Y PREST.
IBRD 50.76i 138.756 189.517 - -
42.226 6.351 48.577 - -
IDA
61.749 73.631 135.380 - -
IDS
- 5.900 5.900 - -
INTL FUND ARG(IFAD)
- 1.450 1.450 - -
OPEC SPECIAL FUND
157.146 226.878 384.024 - -
TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS

BILATERAL LOANS
13.20t - 13,201 - -
ARGENTINA
10,627 111,462 122.089 27 8
BRAZIL -
634 - 634 -
CANADA
32,982 11,345 44,327 - 137
GERMANY, FED.REP. OF
1.922 - 1.922 - -
ITALY
 Table 4.1: PARAGUAY PAGE 2

EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979
DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

TYPE OF FLOW D EB T O U T S T A N D I N G : I N A R R E A R S
TYPE OF CREDITOR ----------------------------------- -----------------------
CREDITOR COUNTRY DISBURSED :UNDISBURSED: TOTAL PRINCIPAL : INTEREST

JAPAN 24.252 38.307 62.559 -

SOUTH AFRICA 14.309 2.623 16.932 553 162
SPAIN 22.103 - 22.103 - -
UNITED KINGDOM 3.618 - 3,618 - -
UNITED STATES 48.870 8.423 57,293 - -
TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 172.518 172.160 344,678 580 307
TOTAL REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT 490,522 515,663 1,006.185 2,676 1,006

TOTAL EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT 490.522 515,663 1.006.185 2,676 1.006

NOTES: (1) ONLY DEBTS WITH AN ORIGINAL OR EXTENDED MATURITY OF OVER ONE YEAR ARE INCLUDED IN THIS TABLE.
(2) DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDES PRINCIPAL IN ARREARS BUT EXCLUDES INTEREST IN ARREARS.

. .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
 Table 4.,2: PARAGUAY
PAGE
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS
CREDITOR COUNTRY ARGENTINA
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S 0 U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDI'NG COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:------------ LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (I) X : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 575 3.516 256 1,749 525 - 525 -

1971 1.800 3.248 1.819 431 474 . 167 641 386 -

1972 1.757 4,207 - 26 514 84 598 3 2

1973 1.27t 3.692 343 346 378 64 442 -
1974 1.240 3,658 16.149 263 560 65 625 -
1975 945 19,248 144 9.289 197 35 232 - -1
1976 10.036 19,194 323 7.180 242 42 284 - 144
1977 16,965 19.419 - 85 145 2.862 1,649 4,511i - 8
1978 14.255 16.650 - 3 2,489 1.570 4,059 -

1979 ti,770 14.162 19.216- 19.216 2.891 1.618 4.509 -

1980 28,096 30,488

, * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * *

1980 28.096 30.488 - 531 4.772 2.016 6.788 - -2.105

23.611 - - 4.458 1.684 6,142 - -
1981 23.611
1982 19.153 19.153 - - 4.308 1.355 5.663 - 1
1983 14.846 14,846 - - 4.261 1,032 5,293 - 1
10,586 10.586 - - 4.246 714 4.960 - -
1984
6,340 - - 4.229 396 4.625 - -
1985 6.340
2.111 - - 2.111 79 2.190 - -
1986 2.111

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY PAGE I
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAt PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBIJRSED AS OF DEC. 31. t979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS
CREDITOR COUNTRY AUSTRIA
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U P I N G P E p I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- ----------- ----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 - - - - -_ _
1971 - - - - - , _ _
1972 - - - - - - _
1973 - - - - - _
1974 - - - - - _
1975 - - - - - _ _
1976 - - - - - _ _
1977 - - 2.000 - - - - .
1978 - 2.000 - - - - - - -
1979 - 2.000 - - - - - - - H
1980 - 2,000
0,
* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED 4 * - * * I

1980 - 2.000 - 2.000 214 40 254

1981 1,786 1.786 - - 227 107 334 - -
1982 1.559 1.559 - - 241 94 335 - -
1983 1.318 1.318 - - 255 79 334 - -
1984 1.063 1.063 - - 270 64 334 - -
1985 793 793 - - 287 48 335 - -
1986 506 506 - - 506 30 536 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANOING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY PAGE 4
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS
CREDITOR COUNTRY BRAZIL
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT' DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- ----------- ----------- LATIONS MENt s
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1)
* (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (B) (9)

1970 23 23 - - - - - _ _
1971 23 23 - - -
1972 23 23 - - --
1973 23 23 B B 2 - 2 - -
1974 29 29 - - 2 1 3 -
1975 27 27 322 322 14 - 14 - -
1976 335 335 - - 20 3 23 - -6
1977 309 309 - - 71 19 90 - 3
1978 241 241 13.574 157 SG it 67 - -1
1979 341 13.758 - 9.668 32 449 481 - - I
1980 9,977 13.726 W

* * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1980 9.977 13,726 - 2,407 156 10 166 - -76

1981 12,152 13,494 - 1.342 1,704 860 2.564 - 1
1982 1i.791 11.791 - - 1.704 796 2.500 - -1
1983 10.086 10.086 - - 1,700 676 2,376 - -
1984 8,386 8.386 - - 1,677 558 2,235 - -
1985 6.709 6,709 - - f,677 440 2.117 - -1
1986 5. w1 5.031 - - 1.677 323 2.000 - -
1987 3,354 3,354 - - 1.677 205 1.882 -
1988 1i.77 1.677 - - 1.677 88 1 765

THIS COLUMN SHOWS tHE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDiNG UNDIS8URSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 5
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS
BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979
DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS
CREDITOR COUNTRY GERMANY, FED.REP. OF
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY :UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS __ ----------- ----------- : LATIONS :MENT t
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 t0,2t4 10.760 - 201 1,584 660 2.244 - 3

1971 8,833 9,179 - 36 1.366 620 1,986 - 1.013
1972 8,474 8,826 . - 75 1.436 580 2,016 - 186
1973 7,291 7.576 5 255 1.715 611 2.326 - 1.432
1974 7,206 7,298 - 8 1,825 514 2.339 - 757
1975 6,137 6.230 - 33 1,902 420 2.322 - -382
1976 3.890 3,946 8.215 741 1.464 249 1,713 - 871
1977 3.547 1t,568 8.070 5,393 1,773 171 1.944 . - 2,060
1978 7,972 19.925 * - 9.460 703 284 987 1,618 2,801
1979 18,782 20.405 46,528 - 2,744 1,631 4,375 2,382 3,526
1980 16,122 65.333 o
* *4* * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * . * *

1980 ' 16.122 65,333 - 9.842 2.542 1,508 4,050 - -72

1981 23,350 62,719 - 12,795 7.808 2,123 9,931 - I
1982 28.339 54,912 - 11,8tO 8,068 2,543 10,611 - t
1983 32,081 46.845 - 9.350 8,068 2,791 tO.859 - -
1984 33.363 38,777 - 5,414 8,068 2,790 10.858 - -
1985 30,709 30.709 - - 8.068 2,414 10,482 - 2
1986 22,643 22.643 - - 6.326 1,774 8,100 - -
1987 16,317 16.3t7 - - 5,526 1,258 6,784 - -
1988 10,791 10,791 - - 5.526 794 6.320 - 1
1989 5,266 5.266 - - 5.266 329 5,595 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 6
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNOISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS
CREDITOR COUNIRY ITALY
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T IO NS 0 U R I N G P E R IO D OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- ----------- ----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(t) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
1970 13,968 16.270 - 1.344 453 170 623 - -t
1971 14,858 15.816 4.090 4,355 2,024 886 2.910 - 73
1972 17,262 17.955 66 252 1,534 814 2.348 - 28
1973 16,008 16,515 - 29 1.825 953 2.778 - -62
1974 14,150 14.628 - 8 846 660 t,506 - -89
1975 13,222 13.693 - - 1,927 761 2,688 - -64
1976 11.231 11.702 - 7 1.996 632 2,628 - -274
1977 8.969 9.432 - 100 2.028 457 2.485 - 7
1978 7.048 7.411 - - 2.085 315 2,400 -51
1979 5,014 5.377 - - 2,383 208 2.59 - 33
1980 2.664 3,027 F-

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * . . *

1980 2.664 3.027 - - 591 87 678 - -1.567

1981 869 869 - - 348 55 403 -t
1982 522 522 - - 348 30 378 --
i983 t74 174 - - 174 6 180 -

THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC JMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 8
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBUQSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS
CREDITOR COUNTRY JAPAN
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E P V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISBURSED :MENTS MENTS ---------- :-----------:------------ LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) ' 8) (9)

1970 203 203 - - 68 12 80 -

1971 135 135 259 259 121 9 130 -
1972 273 273 . - _ III 20 131 -
1973 162 162 - - 4t 12 53 - -t
1974 120 120 - - 41 9 50 -
1975 79 79 - - 23 2 25 -
1976 56 56 - - 56 2 58 -
1977 - - - - - - - .
1978 - - - - - _ _
1979 - - - - - - - - - F'
1980 - _ I

+ * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDIS8URSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 9
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDIS8URSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC OEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS
CREDITOR COUNTRY SPAIN
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T IO N S DIU R I N G P E R I OD OTHER CHANGES
B
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: OISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED :MENTS MENTS L-----------:-----------:-----------
ATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1 :) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 563 563 - 216 24 240 - -1

1971 346 346 - - 167 * 18 185 - -
1972 179 179 - - 57 12 69 - -
1973 122 122 - - 45 9 54 - -
1974 77 77 - - 39 9 48 - -
1975 38 38 - - 34 9 43 - -
1976 4 4 - - 4 - 4 -
1977 - - 76 176 - , -
1978 176 t76 - - 176 - 176 - -
1979 - - - - - - - - -
1980 -

* * t * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * s . * *

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 10
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS
CREDITOR COUNTRY SWEDEN
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDIS8URSED MENTS MENTS ----------- ----------- :----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 - 1.100 - 861 238 - 238 -

1971 623 863 - 83 205 28 233 -
1972 501 658 . - 6 204 23 227 - -
1973 303 453 750 38 184 18 202 -
1974 157 1.019 - 49 108 7 15 --
1975 98 311 - 138 70 t1 81 -
1976 166 841 - 67 112 49 161 - -1
1977 121 728 - - 89 49 11 60 .-
1978 ¶61 680 - 102 89 19 108 -
1979 174 591 - - 76 11 87 - - F'
1980 98 515 o -s

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1980 98 515 - 4t7 172 22 194 -

1981 343 343 - - 172 18 90 -1
1982 172 172 - - 172 8 180 -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDIS8URSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~PAGE
I
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANOING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, i979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS
CREDITOR COUNTRY SWITZERLAND
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U P I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNOISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- ----------- ----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1)
* (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
1970 18 18 - - t3 1 14 - -
1971 5 5 - - 3 - 3 -
1972 3 3 268 219 3 - 3 - 3
1973 222 271 - - - - - -44
1974 258 315 - 62 123 - 123 - 66
1975 258 258 - - 63 16 79 - -7
1976 188 188 - - 32 5 37 - 11
1977 167 167 - - 34 4 38 - 31
1978 164 164 - - - - - - 39
1979 203 203 _. _ _
- -4
1980 208 208 ->

* * . * ' * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * *

1980 208 208 - - - - - - -208

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOJNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTNER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 12
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON OEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS
CREDITOR COUNTRY UNITED STATES
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDIS8URSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MFNT s
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 34 3.334 - 1.i60 394 3 397 - 3

1971 802 2.943 - 218 227 . 46 273 - -
1972 793 2.716. - - 313 50 363 1.000 -
1973 480 1,403 142 142 286 26 312 - -
1974 336 1.259 199 199 254 17 271 - 1
1975 282 1,205 177 177 36 - 36 - -1
1976 424 1,345 i,520 1,520 313 14 327 - -1
1977 1.630 2.551 3.085 2.241 276 6 282 - -10
1978 3,597 5.350 414 395 783 30 813 -
1979 3.210 4.982 37 293 1.032 386 1.418 - -
t980 2,471 3,987

+ * + * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * a

1980 2.471 3,987 - 224 1.262 158 1,420 - -1,187
1981 1.155 1.538 - 196 1.038 88 1.126 - 2
1982 314 502 - 134 279 31 310 - -
1983 l69 223 - 53 223 14 237 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 14
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON OEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDIS0URSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PVBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREOITS
TOTAL
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T IO N S D U R I N G P E R I OD OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUD1l'G COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADdUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *
: : : PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (I) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 25.598 35,787 256 5.315 3,491 870 4.361 - 6

1971 27.425 32,558 6.168 5.3B2 4.587 M1.774 6.361 386 1.087
1972 29.265 34.840 * 334 578 4.t72 1.583 5,755 1.003 218
1973 25,882 30.217 1.248 818 4,476 1.693 6.169 - 1.414
1974 23.573 28,403 16.348' 589 3.798 1.282 5,080 - 736
1975 21.086 41.689 643 9.959 4.266 1.254 5,520 - -455
t976 26.330 37.611 10.058 9,515 4.239 996 5.235 - 744
1977 31.708 44.174 13.416 8.144 7.093 2.317 9.410 . - 2.100
1978 33.614 52,597 13.988 10,117 6,381 2.229 8.610 1.618 2.892 1
1979 39.494 61,478 65.781- 29,177 9,158 4.303 13.461 2.382 3,565 H
1980 59.636 119.284 Z

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED s * * * * *

1990 59.636 119,284 - 15.421 9.709 3.841 13,550 - -5,215

1981 63,266 104.360 - 14,333 15,755 4.935 20.690 - 6
1982 61.850 88.611 - 11,944 15.120 4.857 19,977 - 1
1983 58.674 73,492 - 9,403 14.681 4.598 19.279 - 1
1984 53.398 58.812 - 5,414 14,261 4.126 18,387 - -
1985 44,551 44,551 - - 14.261 3.298 17.559 - 1
1986 30.291 30,291 - - 10.620 2.206 12,826 - _
1987 19,671 19,671 - - 7.203 1.463 8.666 - -
1988 12.468 12.468 - - 7.203 882 8.085 - 1
1989 5,266 5.266 - - 5.266 329 5,595 - -

t THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF 1MBALANCES APE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 16
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUOING UNOISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
CREDITOR COUNTRY ADELA
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T IO N S D U R I N G P E R IO D OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNOISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- ----------- ----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 - - 1.530 1,530 - - - - -

1971 1.530 1.530 - - 36 151 187 - _
1972 1.494 1,494. - - 250 92 342 - -
1973 1.244 1.244 - - 432 129 561 - -
1974 812 812 - - 468 106 574 - -t
1975 343 343 - - 343 37 380
1976 - - - - - - -
1977 - - - - - _ _ , _
1978 - - _ _ _ -_ _
1979 - - -. - - _ _ _ _ I
1980 - -

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * *

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 17
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBlIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED
ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979
DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
CREDITOR COUNTRY ARGENTINA
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CUANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS -- __----- ----------- :----------- LATIONS MENT *
: : : .: PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (I) : {(2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 - - - - - - _
1971 - - _ , _ _
t972 - - - - - - _ _
1973 - - - - - _ _
i974 _ - 20,000 - - - -
f975 - 20,000 - 571 - - - -
i976 571 20,000 - 436 40 34 74 - -2
1977 965 19,958 - 733 93 84 177 - 2
1978 1.606 19.867 - 1,237 128 99 227 -
1979 2,715 i9,739 - 1.162 222 f84 406 - - 4
1980 3,655 19.517 i980 4.-~~~~~~~~~
t

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * *

1980 3.655 19,517 - 9.517 3,903 687 4,590 -

1981 9.269 15.614 - 6,345 3,903 914 4,817 - -1
1982 t,710 11,710 - - 3,903 751 4,654 -
1983 7,807 7,807 - - 3,903 478 4,381 - -
1984 3.903 3,903 - - 3,903 205 4,108

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 18
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
CREDITOR COUNTRY BRAZIL
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G p E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT i
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

.1970 - - - _ - _
1971 - - - - _
1972 - - 11,000 1,000 - 42 42
1973 1.000 "1.000 - 1.10t 43 123 166
1974 2,058 10,957 - 5,031 370 215 585
1975 6.719 10.587 50.000 2,492 2,482 648 3,130 - -1
1976 6,728 58,104 - 117 1.404 379 1,783 - -2
1977 5,440 56,698 6.180 56,186 870 403 1.273 . - -
1978 60,756 62.008 14.095' 4.309 394 385 779 - -
1979 64.671 75,709 3,617' 1.377 870 405 1,275 - -
1980 68.795 78.456
U'
* * t * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * * O

1980 68.795 78.45G - 6,212 23,581 4.505 28.086 - I

1981 51.427 54.876 - 3.449 24.450 3.340 27.790 - -1
1982 30,425 30,425 - - 22.166 1.902 24,068 - -1
1983 8.268 8.258 - - 869 563 1.432 - -
1984 7.389 7.389 - - 869 502 1,371 - -
1985 6.520 6.520 - - 869 441 1.310 - -1
1986 5.650 5.650 - - 869 380 1.249 -
1987 4.781 4.781 - - 869 319 1.88 - -
1988 ' 3.912 3.912 - - 869 259 1.128 -
1989 3.043 3,043 - - 869 198 1.067 - -1

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 19
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS ON DEBT OUTSTANDING

BASED INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979
DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
CREDITUR COUNTRY CANADA
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT t R A N S A C I I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E P V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ---------- ----------- :----------- LATIONS MENT t

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL

(1) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 - - - - - -
1971 - - - - -
1972 - - - -
1973 - - _
1974 - - - - -
1975 - - - - - _
1976 - - - - - -
1977 - - - - _ _
1978 - - 5.000 - - -
1979 - 5,000 - 5,000 - 494 494
1980 5,000 5,000

* * * * + * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * *

1980 5,000 5.000 - - - -

1981 5,000 5.000 - - _
1982 5,000 5,000 - - . Co00 751 1,751
1983 4,000 4,000 - - 1.000 593 1,593
1984 3.000 3.000 - - t,000 435 1,435
1985 2,000 2.000 - - 1,000 277 1.277
1986 1.000 1.000 - - 1.000 119 1.119

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM OlE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE-
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 20
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
CREDITOR COUNTRY FRANCE
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *
: : : : : PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) . (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 - - - _ _ _ _
1971 . - - _ _ _ _
1972 - - . - - - - _ _
1973 _
1974 - - - _ _ _ _ _
1975 - - - - - _ _ _
1976 - - - - - - _ _
1977 - - - - _ _ _ _ _
1978 - - - - - _ _ _
1979 - - 2.876 - - - - - 120
1980 - 2.996
* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1980 - 2.996 - 2,996 - 106 106 -

1981 2.996 2.996 - - - 288 288 -
1982 2.996 2,996 - - 528 276 804 -
1983 2.468 2.468 - - 528 230 758 -
1984 1.940 1,940 - - 528 184 712 -
1985 1.411 1.411 - - 528 138 666 -
1986 883 883 - - 528 92 620 -
1987 356 356 - - 89 54 143 -
1988 267 267 - - 89 39 128 -
1989 178 178 - - 89 25 114 -

THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDIS8URSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUTAY 21
PAGE
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
CREDITOR COUNTRY GERMANY. FED.REP. OF
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T IO N S D U R I N G P E R IO D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY : UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *
: :. : : :PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) (2) (3) (4) : (5 (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 - - - - - - - - _
1971 - - - - _ _ _ _
1972 - - - - - _ - _ _
1973 - - - - - _ - _
1974 - - - - - _ - _
1975 - - - -
1976 - - 3.655 2.724 73 - 73 - 234
1977 2,824 3,8t6 1.010 1.010 724 145 869 . - -616
1978 3.486 3,486 -' - 1.214 164 1.378 - 410
1979 2.682 2.682 -1 - t.250 t49 1.399 - 78 A

1980 1.510 1,510

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * ' * * * I

1980 1.510 1,510 - - 755 213 968

1981 755 755 - - 755 91 846

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOlUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBAI-ANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER iN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGF 22
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTS1ANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS ON DEBT OUTSTANDING

BASED INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979
DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF UJ.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
CREDITOR COUNTRY NETHERLANDS
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY IINDISBURSED MENTS MENTS : _----- ----------- LATIONS MENT *
* . . PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) * : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 _ _ _
1971 - - -
_ -
1972 - 1.500 1.500 - 60 60
1973 1,500 1.500 - - 500 108 608
1974 1.000 1,000 - - 500 64 564
1975 500 500 - - 500 - 500
1976 - - - - - _
1977 - - - - _ _
1978 - - 17.562 - - - - - 1.698
1979 - 19.260 - - - - - - 643
1980 - 19.903 Un

- + * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1980 - 19.903 - 19.903 t,769 1.134 2.903

1981 18.134 18,134 - - 1.769 1.097 2.866
1982 16.365 i6.365 - - 1.769 955 2.724
1983 14.596 14,596 - - 2.433 1.124 3.557 -1
1984 12.164 12,164 - - 2,433 928 3.361 - -1
1985 9.730 9.730 - - 2.433 733 3.166 -
1986 7,298 7,298 - - 2.433 537 2.970
1987 4,865 4.865 - - 2.433 342 2.775 -
1988 2.433 2.433 - - 2.433 146 2,579

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOlJNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST.COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 23
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEST
TYPE OF CREDITOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
CREDITOR COUNTRY PANAMA
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----- ----------- ----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 - - - - - - - -
1971 - - - - _ _ _
1972 - - - - - - - -
1973 - - - - - - - _
1974 - - 3.000 3.000 - - - _
1975 3.000 3.000 - - - 129 129 -
1976 3,000 3.000 - - - 136 136 -
1977 3.000 3.000 2.000 2.000 69 137 206 -
1978 4.931 4,931 - - 181 246 427 -
1979 4,750 4.750 - - 453 350 803 - - I
1980 4.297 4.297 U

* * ** * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * 4 I

1980 4.297 4.297 - - 778 365 1,143 -

1981 3.519 3,5t9 - - 778 261 1,039 -
1982 2.741 2.741 - - 778 157 935 -
1983 1.963 1.963 - - 207 76 283 -
1984 1.756 1,756 - - 207 68 275 -
1985 1,550 1.550 - - 207 60 267 -
1986 1.343 1.343 - - 207 52 259 -
1987 1it37 1.137 - - 207 43 250 -
1988 930 930 - - 207 35 242 -
1989 723 723 - - 207 27 234 -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNOISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTFiER iN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 24
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
CREDITOR COUNTRY SWEDEN
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C r I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) . : (2) (3) (4) (5) *(6) (7) (B) (9)

1970 - - - _ _ _ _
1971 - - - _ _ _
1972 - - - - _
1973 - - - _ _ _
1974 - - - _
1975 - - - - _ _
1976 - - - - - _
1977 1,800 - - - - - -
1978 - 1.800 - 117 a 3 II - -
1979 109 1,792 128 36 4 40 - -
1980 201 1.756 Ln

. .. . * . * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * *. I

1980 201 1,756 . - 1,555 358 99 457

1981 1,398 1.398 - - 384 91 475
1982 1.014 1.014 - - 1.014 64 1.078

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 25
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
CREDITOR COUNTRY SWITZERLAND
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R J 0 D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED INCLUbiNG COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNOISBURSED MENTS MENTS ---------
-- :----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (B) (9)

1970 - - _ _ _ _ _
1971 - - _
1972 - - - - - _ _
1973 - - 1.500 - - -
1974 - 1i500 - 1500 - 141 14-
1975 1.500 1.500 - - - - -
1976 1.500 1.500 - - - 132 132
1977 1.500 1.500 - - - - - -
1978 t.500 1.500 - - 1.500 121 1.621 - -
1979 - - - - - - - - _
1980 -

* * * * ,THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLF_
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 26
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROdECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
CRED1lOR COUNTRY UNITED KINGDOM
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
SEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-------------: LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
( .: (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

t970 - - - _ _ _
971
9 - - - - _
1972 - - - - - _ _
1973 - - 4.400 4.400 - - _
1974 4.400 4.400 4.015 - 500 253 753 -
1975 3.900 7.915 - 4.015 1.000 770 1.770 -
1976 6.915 6.915 - - 197 880 1.077 - -1
1977 6.717 6.717 1.000 982 454 151 605 . IB
1978 7,246 7.246 11.000 11.000 1.285 382 1.667 --
1979 16.961 16.961 - - 4.736 1.727 6.463 - - F'
1980 12.225 12.225 oo

* * t * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * I

1980 12.225 12.225 - - 1.863 1.888 3.751 -

1981 10.362 10.362 - - 1.546 1.603 3.149 - -
1982 8.816 8.816 - - 1.546 1.354 2.900 - -1
1983 7.269 7.269 - - 1.546 1.106 2.652 - -
1984 5.723 5.723 - - 1.323 857 2.180 -
1985 4.400 4.400 - - 1.100 663 1.763 -
1986 3.300 3.300 - - 1.100 490 1.590 -
1987 2.200 2.200 - - 1.100 312 1,412 -
1988 1,100 1.100 - - 1.100 134 1.234 -

+ THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 27
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
CREDITOR COUNTRY UNITED STATES
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S 0 U R I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T s CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :----------- ----------- LATIONS MENT t
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 762 762 330 330 326 22 348 -

1971 766 766 - - 292 , 34 326 -
1972 474 474 , 1,500 1.500 469 93 562 -
1973 1.505 1.505 - - 691 127 818 -
1974 814 814 - - 520 86 606 -
1975 294 294 3,600 1.500 293 24 317 - -l
1976 1,500 3,600 - 2.100 SOO 115 615 -
1977 3,tO, 3.100 - - 500 197 697
1978 2.600 2.600 34,000 4.000 710 1.844 2.554 -
1979 5,890 35,890 7.000 - 420 430 850 30.000
1980 5.470 t2,470 Ln

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * ^ * ^ . *

1980 5,470 t2.470 - 2,800 1.217 704 1,921 - -

1981 7.053 i1.253 - 2,000 1.217 1.210 2.427 - -1
1982 7,835 10.035 - 1.500 1.217 1.294 2,511 - -
1983 8.118 8.8t8 - 700 727 1.292 2.019 - -
1984 8,091 8,091 - - 727 t.228 1,955 - -
1985 7,364 7.364 - - 1.364 1,114 2.478 - -
1986 6.000 6.000 - - 1.000 934 1.934 - -
1987 5,000 5.000 - - t.000 778 1.778 - -
1988 4,000 4.000 - - 1.000 623 1.623 - -
1989 3,000 3.000 - - i.000 467 1.467 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 28
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBLIRSED AS OF DFC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
- (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
TOTAL
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- ----------- :----------- LATIONS MENT $
(2) : ::PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
() (2) (3 (4) (5) (6) (7) (B) (9)

1970 762 762 1.860 1,860 326 22 348 - -

1971 2.296 2.296 - - 328 . 185 513 - -
1972 t.968 1.968 14.000 4.000 719 287 1.006
1973 5249 15.249 5.900 5.501 1,666 487 2.153 - -
1974 9.084 19.483 27,015 9,531 2,358 865 3.223 - -1
1975 t6.256 44.139 53.600 8,578 4.618 1.608 6.226 -2
1976 20.214 93,119 3.655 5.377 2,214 1.676 3.890 - 229
1977 23.546 94.789 11,990 60.911 2.710 1.117 3.827 18 -613
1978- 82.125 103,438 81,657 20.663 5.420 3.244 8.664 - 2.108
1979 97,778 181,783 13,493- 7,667 7.987 3,743 11.730 30.000 841 H
1980 101.153 158.130 0

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * t s * *

1980 101.153 158.130 - 42,983 34.224 9.701 43.925 - 1

1981 109.913 123.907 - 11,794 34.802 8.895 43.697 - -3
1982 86,902 89.102 - 1,500 33.921 7.504 41.425 - -2
1983 54.47t 55.179 - 700 11.213 5.462 16.675 - -
1984 43,966 43.966 - - 10,990 4.407 15.397 - -1
1985 32.975 32,975 - - 7,501 3.426 10.927 - -
1986 25,474 25.474 - - 7,137 2.604 9.741 - 2
1987 18.339 18.339 - - 5.698 1.848 7.546 - I
1988 12.642 12.642 - - 5.698 1.236 6.934 - -
1989 6,944 6.944 - - 2.165 717 2.882 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 29
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR NATIONALIZATION
CREDITOR COUNTRY UNITED KINGDOM
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T IO N S O U R I N G P E R IO D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUbING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E P V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

- 24 - 24 - -
1970 288 *288 -
.264 - - 36 . - 36 - -
1971 264
228 -- - 12 - 12 - -
1972 228
2t6 - - 38 - 38 - -
1973 216
178 - - t2 - 12 - -
1974 178
166 166 - - 44 - 44 -
1975
- - 17 - 17 -
1976 122 122
1977 105 10B - - 17 - 17 . _ -
87 - - 18 - 18 - -
1978 87
69 - - - - - -
1979 69
1980 69 69

* * * * s* THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * $ ' *

69 69 - - 34 - 34 - -18
1980
17 - - 17 - 17 -
1981 17

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY PAGE 30
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED
ON DEBT OUtSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979
DEST REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR NATIONALIZATION
TOTAL
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A V M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *
: .: .: PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) e: (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

t970 288 288 - - 24 - 24 -

1971 264 .264 - - 36 - 36
1972 228 228 - - 12 - 12
1973 216 216 - - 38 - 38
1974 178 178 - - 12 - 12
1975 166 166 - - 44 - 44
1976 122 122 - - 17 - 17
1977 105 105 - - 17 - 17 - -1
1978 87 87 - - 18 - 18 -
1979 69 69 - - - - - -
1980 69 69

t* * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * t * t * *

1980 69 69 - - 34 - 34 - -18
1981 17 17 - - 17 - 17

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGlAY PAGE 31
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENiS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY BIA AHORROS Y PREST.
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T IO N S DU R I N G P E R I OD OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1)
: : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 - - - - --
1971 - - - - , _ _
1972 - - - - -
1973 - - - - - - - _
1974 - - - - - - _
1975 - - - - - - _
1976 - - - - - - _
1977 - - - - - - , _
1978 - - 3.200 2.120 -- 44 44 -
1979 2.120 3.200 - 290 - 257 257 -
1980 2.410 3.200

* ** * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED . <* *

1980 2.410 3.200 - 394 552 348 900 -

1981 2.252 2.648 - 228 552 276 828 -
1982 1.928 2.096 - 132 552 197 749 -
1983 1,507 1.543 - 36 552 114 666 -
1984 991 991 - - 52 49 101 -
1985 939 939 - - 52 46 98 -
1986 887 887 - 52 44 96 -
1987 835 835 - 52 41 93 -
1988 783 783 - - 52 38 90 - -1
1989 730 730 - - 52 36 88

THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER lN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY PAGE 32
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY IBRD
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U P I N G P E P I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUD'ING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ------------- : LATIONS MENT $
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1
: (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 4.929 11,350 6,000 i.501 95 359 454 - -

1971 6,335 17.255 - 1.914 235 227 462 - -
1972 8.0t4 17.020. - 2.461 241 804 1,045 - -
1973 10.234 16.779 - 2.773 255 849 1.104 36 -
1974 12.752 16.488 24.500 2.687 471 992 1.463 - -
1975 14,968 40,517 - 3.165 498 1,316 1.814 - -
1976 17,636 40,019 12.000 4,596 538 1,517 2,055 - -
1977 21.694 51,481 38.000 6.879 563 1,961 2.524 , - -
1978 28.010 88,918 33,000 7,800 603 3,103 3.706 _
1979 35,207 121.315 69.00G 16,353 798 4,139 4.937 - - -
1980 50,761 189.517

* * 4 4 * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED ' ' * * 4 I

1900 50,761 189.517 - 27.740 1.310 5.558 6,868 - -

198t 77.191 188,207 - 31,754 3.389 7,452 10.841 - -
1982 105.556 184.818 - 27,180 6,068 9,234 15,302 - -1
1983 126.667 178,744 - 20.530 9.408 10.391 19.799 - -3
1984 137.786 169.338 - 14.213 12.958 10.867 23.825 - 1
1985 139,042 156.381 - 8.564 13.118 10.710 23.828 - -2
1986 134.486 143,261 - 4.617 13.190 10,194 23.384 - -1
1987 125,912 130,070 - 2.633 13.278 9,443 22,721 - -1
1988 115.266 116.791 - 1,245 13,468 8,576 22,044 - -
1989 103.043 103,323 - 233 13,668 7,613 21,281 - -2

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBUPSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY PAGE 33
DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS,

PROJECTIONS BASED ON OEBT OUTSTANOING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY IDA
T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: DISBURSED INCLUDING
MENTS MENTS ----------- ---------------------- : LATIONS MENT *
: ONLY UNDISBURSED
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
: (1) *
- 126 126 - -
1970 16.554 21.400 - 1.818
- 71 71 10 5
1971 18.372 21.400 - 1.550
21.395 5.100 1.367 63 215 278 - 1.749
1972 19.922
28.181 - 106 90 276 366 - 2.561
1973 22,975 -
30.652 11,000 17 116 191 307 -
1974 25,552
41.536 4,000 955 t16 190 306 - -
1975 25.453
45.420 4.000 2.643 199 201 400 - -
1976 26.292 -
- 5.229 207 222 429 . -
1977 28.736 49,221
- 5.334 205 256 461 - -1
1978 33,758 49,014
- 3.571 230 297 527 - -1
1979 38.887 48,808
0'
1980 42.226 48.577
. l
* * * t * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED *

256 325 581 - -

1980 42.226 48.577 2.268
1.537 256 336 592 - -3
1981 44.238 48.321 -
- 1.307 427 345 772 - 2
1982 45.516 48.062
47.637 - 1.237 496 352 848 - -1
1983 46.398 - -
47.140 - 2 594 351 945
1984 47.138
- -1
46.546 - - 698 346 1.044
1985 46.546
- - 929 340 1,269 - -t
1986 45.847 45.847
- - 969 333 1,302 - 2
1987 44.917 44.917
- - 969 327 1.296 - -1
1988 43.950 43.950
- - 1.020 320 1,340 -
1989 42,980 42.980

UNDISBURSED FROM ONE

THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 34
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PU13LIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY 1DB
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S 0 U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- ----------- ----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
1970 20.713 21,286 - 393 755 916 1.671 - -
1971 20.350 20.531 - 214 780 1,016 1.796 - 150
1972 19,844 19,901. - 53 931 881 1,812 4 -
1973 18,966 18.966 - - 799 849 i,648 - 90
1974 18.257 18.257 11,500 - 714 843 1.557 - 152
1975 17,695 29,195 26.713 5,693 663 753 1,416 - -20
1976 22.705 55.225 2.300 7.525 709 1.066 1.775 - 58
1977 29,579 56.874 11.000 5.948 632 1.045 1,677 .2,933 -
1978 34,895 64,309 59.e0 13.989 719 1.087 1,806 - 296
1979 48,222 115,886 19 80 13.774 729 2,149 2.878 31 454
1980 61,749 135,380

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * I

1980 61.749 135.380 - 9.568 1,677 2,188 3,865 -

1981 69.640 133,703 - 11.207 1,451 2.591 4,042 - -
1982 79.395 132.252 - 13,965 1,431 3,126 4.557 - -1
1983 91.926 1S0.820 - 13.117 1.712 3.624 5.336 - -
1984 103.331 129,108 - 10.966 3,983 3,967 7.950 - 1
1985 110.315 125.126 - 7.062 4.654 4.412 9.066 - I
1986 112.722 120.473 - 4,637 5.119 4.355 9.474 - -
1987 112,240 115,354 - 2.747 5,312 4.254 9.566 - I
1988 109,676 110.043 - 369 5,573 4,130 9.703 - 4
1989 104.474 104,474 - - 5.962 3,976 9,938 - 2

* ThIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN T1HE AMOUNr OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 35
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE OEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY INTL FUND ARG(IFAD)
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANOING AT T R A N S A C T IO N S D U R I N G P E R tO D OTHER CHANGES
- BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS - ---------------------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (t) (2) (3) f4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977 - - - - - - - _
1978 - - - - - - - - _ I
1979 - - 5,900 - - - - _ _
1980 - 5.900 0

* * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * I

1980 - 5.900 - 472 - 13 13 -

1981 472 5.900 - 2.537 - 87 87 - -
1982 3.009 5.900 - 1.534 - 161 161 - -
1983 4.543 5.900 - 885 - 205 205 - -
1984 5.428 5.900 - 472 197 230 427 - -
1985 5.703 5,703 - - 393 224 617 - -
1986 5.310 5.310 - - 393 208 601 - -
1987 4.917 4.917 - - 393 193 586 - -1
1988 4,523 4,523 - - 393 177 570 -
1989 4.130 4,130 - - 393 161 554 -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY PAGE 36

SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW' REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY OPEC SPECIAL FUND
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T IO N S U R I N G P E R I O D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED INCLUbING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y ME N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) ' : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (B) (9)

1970 - - - - - - _ _
1971 -- _ _ . _ _ -
1972 - - - - . _ _ _ _
1973 - - - - - _ _ _ _
1974 - - - - _ _ _ _ _
1975 - - - _ _ _ _ _
1976 - - - - - - - - -
1977 - - - - . _ _
1978 - - - - - _ _ _ _
1979 - - 1,450 - - - - - -
1980 - ,t450 00

* * * * * *, THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * . *

1980 - 1.450 - 44 - I I - -
1981 44 1,450 - 203 - 6 6 - -
1982 247 1.450 - 261 - Is 15 - -
1983 508 1.450 305 91 25 t16 - -
1984 721 1,359 - 232 91 33 124 -
1985 863 1,269 - 174 91 37 128 - -
1986 946 1,178 - 131 91 40 131 -
1987 986 1.088 - 73 91 40 131 - -
1988 968 997 - 29 91 38 129 - -
1989 906 906 - - 91 35 126 -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING -INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 37
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS
TOTAL
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

D
DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A V M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-
: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT t
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (B) (9)

1970 42.196 54,036 6.000 3.712 850 1.401 2.25t - -

1971 45.057 59,186 - 3.678 1.015 1,314 2,329 10 155
1972 47.780 58.316 5.100 3.881 1,235 1,900 3.135 4 1,749
1973 52,175 63,926 - 2,879 1,144 1,974 3,118 36 2,651
1974 56,561 65,397 47,000 2.704 1.301 2.026 3,327 - 152
1975 58.116 11,.248 30,713 9.813 1.277 2.259 3.536 - -20
1976 66.633 140,664 18.300 14.764 1.446 2.784 4,230 - 58
1977 80.009 157,576 49.000 18.056 1.402 3.228 4,630 .2,933 -
1978 96.663 202.241 88,200 29.243 i.527 4.490 6,017 - 295
1979 124.436 289.209 96.150 33.988 1,757 6,842 8,599 31 453
1980 157.146 384,024

+ * * + * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * +* ' I

1980 157.146 384.024 - 40,486 3,795 8.433 12.228 - -

1981 193,837 380.229 - 47.466 5,648 10,748 16,396 - -3
1982 235.651 374.578 - 44,379 8,478 13,078 21.556 - -1
1983 271.549 366,099 - 36.110 12.259 14.711 26.970 - -4
1984 295.395 353.836 - 25,885 17.875 15,497 33.372 - 3
1985 303.408 335.964 - 15.800 19.006 15.775 34.781 - -2
1986 300.198 316.956 - 9.385 19.774 15.18t 34.955 - -1
1987 289,807 297.181 - 5,453 20.095 14,304 34.399 - 1
1988 275.166 277,087 - 1.643 20.546 13,286 33.832 - 2
1989 256,263 256,543 - 233 21.186 12,141 33,327 - 2

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHIER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 38
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED
ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979
DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY ARGENTINA
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
: BF4INNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS .: MENTS- -- ------ :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 - - - _ _ _
1971 - 570 - - - - - _
1972 - 570. 7.000 308 - - -
1973 308 7,571 - 714 10 1 i1 - -1
1974 1.011 7.560 - 2.113 36 91 127 - -
1975 3.088 7.524 - 163 70 169 239 - -
1976 3.181 7.454 - 151 223 103 326 - -1
1977 3,108 7,230 - 80 385 200 585 4.022 1
1978 2.804 2.824 10.533 10.020 394 153 547 - -
1979 12.963 12.963 632 - 394 763 1,157 - -
1980 13,201 13.201 o

t*t * t+ * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * *t * t

1980 13.201 13.201 - - 1,366 768 2,134 - -

1981 11.835 11.835 - - 1.366 687 2,053 -
1982 10.470 10.470 - - 603 606 1.209 - -
1983 9,867 9.867 - - 603 570 1,173 -
1984 9.265 9.265 - - 603 535 1.138 - -
1985 8.662 8.662 - - 603 501 1.104 - 1
1986 8.060 8.060 - - 603 465 1.068 - -
1987 7.457 7.457 - - 603 430 1.033 - -
1988 6.854 6.854 - - 603 394 997 - I
1989 6.252 6.252 - - 603 359 962 -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 39
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEST

PROJECTIONS BASEDON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREOITOR BILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY BRAZIL
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S 0 U R I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADOJUST-

ONLY UNDISBUJRSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 27 27 - -
1971 27 27 1.000 - - - -
1972 27 1,027 - 45 - 5 5 - -
1973 72 1.027 - 465 - 4 4 - -
1974 537 1.027 - - 14 19 33 -
1975 523 1.013 10.500 - 64 10 74 -
1976 459 11.449 8.500 836 14 25 39 490 -
1977 i,281 19.445 212 4.879 257 143 400 -
1978 5,903 19.400 - 3,376 736 539 1.275 -
1979 8.543 18.664 104.638 3.297 1.213 686 1.899 - -
1980 10.627 122.089

* * t s+ * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED t * * * * *

1980 10.627 122.089 - 80,461 5,850 3.520 9,370 - -27

1981 85.211 116.212 - 31,001 5.850 7.701 13.551 - -2
1982 110.360 110,360 - - 9.455 7.582 17,037 - -
,1983 100.965 100.905 - - 9.413 6.911 16,324 - 2
1984 91,494 91.494 - - 8.468 6.242 14,710 - -i
1985 83.025 83,025 - - 7.524 5.680 13.204 -
1986 75,501 75.501 - - 6.128 5.178 11.306 - 1
1987 69.374 69,374 - - 6.100 4,749 10.849 -
1988 63.274 63.274 - - 6.072 4.323 10.395 -
1989 57,202 57.202 - - 6.072 3.898 9,970 -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY ru ANOTHER iN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY PAGE 40
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEST
TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY CANADA
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T IO N S D U R I N G P E R I O D OTHER CFIANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- ----------- ----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1) (2) (3) (4) (S) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 596 740 - 149 - 10 10 - 45

1971 785 785 - - - , 10 O - 13
1972 798 798. - - - 14 14 - 6
1973 804 804 - - - 10 10 - -1
1974 803 803 - - 10 10 - 4
1975 807 807 - - - 10 10 - -20
1976 787 787 - - - 10 10 - 6
1977 793 793 - - 19 9 28 - -61
1978 713 713 -' - 18 9 27 - -54
1979 641 641 - - 17 9 26 - 10 H
1980 634 634
** * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1980 634 634 - - 37 8 45 - -

1981 597 597 - - 37 7 44 - -1
1982 559 559 - - 37 7 44
1983 522 522 - - 37 6 43 - -
1984 485 485 - - 37 6 43 - -
1985 448 448 - - 37 5 42 - -1
1986 410 410 - - 37 5 42 - -
1987 373 373 - - 37 5 42
1988 336 336 - - 37 4 41 - -
1989 298 298 - - 37 4 41 -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY PAGE 41
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEST
TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY CZECHOSLOVAKIA
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PEPIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNOISBURSED MENTS MENTS '----------- --------- -------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 3 3 - - 3 - 3
1971 - _ - _ _
1972 - - - -
1973 - _ _ _
1974 - _ _ _
1975 - _ _ _ _
1976 - - _ _ _
1977 - - - - - _ _ , _
1978 - - _ _ _ _ _ I
1979 - - -. - - _ _ _ _
1980 - -

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * I

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 42
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY GERMANY. FED.REP. OF
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :------------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 3,743 11.464 - 900 372 168 540 - -153

1971 3,868 10.939 2.869 315 397 , 247 644 - 796
1972 3,735 14.207. 2.352 4,532 488 361 849 - 179
1973 7,765 16.250 1.718 6.614 754 432 1.186 - 2,127
1974 14.144 19.341 - 3,788 753 613 1,366 - 4,213
1975 20,347 22.801 4,889 1,403 1.161 752 1,913 - -2,088
1976 18.924 24.441 - 2,141 1.013 711 1,724 16 2.621
1977 22.205 26.033 - 983 1,193 854 2.047 . - 3.064
1978 24.689 27'.904 4,989 3.315 .814 703 1,517 - 4.635
1979 31,178 36.714 6.552 1.405 1.465 1.093 2.558 - 2.525 -
1980 32.982 44,326

^* +* * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * ^

1980 32.982 44.326 - 2,647 1.775 1,179 2,954 - 1

1981 33,853 42,552 - 3,107 1,944 1.132 3,076 - -
1982 35.017 40,608 - 2.830 1.944 1.093 3.037 - -
1983 35,903 38,664 - 1,755 1,944 1,051 2.995 - -
1984 35,715 36.720 - 532 1,944 988 2.932 - 1
1985 34,303 34.777 - 266 1.944 918 2.862 - I
1986 32.626 32.834 - 139 1,944 846 2.790 - -1
1987 30,820 30.889 - 69 1,713 770 2,483 - -
1988 29.176 29.176 - - 1.483 713 2,196 - -1
1989 27,692 27.692 - 1.969 775 2.744 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARUAYPA
PAGE 43
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMFNTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUJBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASEDON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 3t, 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY ITALY
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A V M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- ----------- ----------- LATIONS MENT +
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

t970 - - - _ _
1971 - - _ _ _
1972 , - - - - _
1973 - - - -
1974 - - 4.300 - - - _ -
1975 - 4,300 - 4.295 215 187 402 - -193
1976 3,892 3,892 - - 277 166 443 - -839
t977 2,776 2,776 - - 373 212 585 - 6
1978 2,409 2,409 - - 324 152 476 - 114
1979 2,199 2,199 - - 337 137 474 - 60
1980 1,922 1,922

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * I

1980 1,922 1,922 - - 427 118 545

1981 1.495 1,495 - - 427 90 5t7
1982 1.068 1,068 - - 427 62 489
1983 641 64t - - 427 35 462
1984 2t4 214 - - 214 7 221

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER iN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUTAY
PAGE 44
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED
ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979
DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY JAPAN
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED INCLU61NG COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A V M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS - ---- ----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (B : (9)

1970 - - - - - _ - _
1971 .- - - _ , _ _ _
1972 - - - - - - - _ _
1973 - - 14,354 - - - - - -427
1974 - 13.927 - 127 - 3 3 - -967
1975 123 12,960 6.741 101 - 17 17 - -367
1976 216 19.334 - 4.793 - 7 7 - 815
1977 5.078 20.149 6.9;2 67 - 4 4 - 5,237
1978 6.276 32,298 - 19.311 - 916 916 - 7,534
1979 28.429 39,832 34.35w 2.456 1,168 1,022 2.190 5 -10.458
1980 24.252 62.559

* 4 4 * 4 * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED 4 4 4 * 4 I

1980 24.252 62.559 - 5,369 X.745 1,096 2.841 - -

1981 27,876 60.814 - 9.825 1.745 1.359 3.104 -
1982 35.957 59.070 - 11.239 1.745 1.721 3,466 - -
1983 45.451 57.325 - 7.579 1.745 2.003 3.748 -
t984 51.286 55.581 - 2,186 2.388 2.091 4.479 - -
1985 51.084 53.193 - 1.093 2.388 2.056 4.444 -
1986 49.789 50,806 - 703 4,079 1,976 6.055 - -
1987 46.414 46,727 - 313 4.079 1,831 5.910 - -1
1988 42.647 42.647 - - 4.079 1.671 5,750 -
1989 38.568 38,568 - - 4,079 1.509 5.588 -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISRURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGFS IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY PAGE 45
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY SOUTH AFRICA
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- ----------------------- LATIONS MENT.
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (I) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 - - - _
1971 - ,- _ _ _ ,
1972 - - . - -
1973 - - - - _ _
1974 - - - _ _
1975 - - 18,581 - - - - - -2.941
1976 - 15.640 - 8.853 - - - --
1977 S8.53 15.639 2.875 7.i67 490 757 1,247 - I
1978 15.531 i8.025 - - 1.044 959 2,003 - I
1979 14,487 16,982 - - 911 634 1,545 - 861
1980 i4.309 16.932

. * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1980 14.309 16.932 - 2.623 1.544 901 2,445 - -973

1981 14.415 14.415 - - ,677 817 2,494 - -
1982 12.738 12.738 - -, 1.677 718 2.395 - -
1983 11.061 11.061 - - 1,677 618 2.295 - -1
1984 9.383 9.383 - - ,677 520 2.197 - -
1985 7.706 7.706 - - 1,677 421 2.098 - -1
1986 6.028 6.028 - - 1,240 330 1.570 - -
1987 4.788 4.788 - - 1.240 264 1.504 - -
1988 3,548 3,548 - - 1,240 198 1,438 - -2
1989 2.306 2,306 - - 963 131 1.094 - 1

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 47
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY SPAIN
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N 5 D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED INCLUbING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ------------:-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 3,8i5 4.665 - - 709 211 920 -

1971 3.107 3,957 - 650 655 234 889 - -
1972 3.102 3,302 - 200 654 198 852 - -
1973 2.648 2,648 17,500 - 580 186 766 - -850
1974 1,218 18.7t8 - - 542 142 684 - -
1975 676 18,176 - - 561 96 657 1
1976 115 17,615 - 8.797 t15 104 219 - -
1977 8,797 17,500 7,020 6,692 309 309 - -
t978 15,489 24,520 - 7,020 655 559 1.214 - -
1979 21,854 23,865 - 2.010 1.761 1,417 3,178 i -
1980 22.103 22,103 o

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * . * * *

1980 22.103 22,103 - - 2.889 1,166 4.055 -

1981 19,215 19.215 - - 2.889 1.010 3,899 - -
1982 16,326 16.326 - - 2,889 853 3.742 -
1983 13.438 13.438 - - 2.889 698 3,587 - -
1984 10,549 10,549 - - 2.889 541 3.430 - 1
1985 7.661 7,661 - - 2.889 385 3.274 - -
1986 4,772 4,772 - - 2.889 228 3.117 - I
1987 1,884 1,884 - - 1,884 72 1,956 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY PAGE 48
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOluNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY UNITED KINGDOM
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS -- __--- ----------- :----------- LATIONS :MENT +
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 - - -
197f - 4.872 - - - - - 233
1972 - 5,105 - 70 - 13 13 - -409
1973 66 4.696 7 797 - 32 32 - -50
1974 820 4.646 - 891 - 58 58 - 51
1975 1.724 4.697 - 1.420 22 89 111 - -648
1976 2.758 4.027 - 797 155 99 254 - -631
1977 2,925 3.241 - 325 150 89 239 . - 374
1978 3,465 3.465 - 184 121 305 - 222
1979 3.503 3.503 _ 202 146 348 - 317
1980 3.618 3.618

** * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * $ * * *

1980 3,618 3.618 - - 219 125 344 - -

1981 3,399 3.399 - - 219 11i 336 - -1
1982 3179 3.179 - - 219 109 328 - -
1983 2,960 2.960 - - 219 102 321 - -
1984 2.741 2.741 - - 219 94 313 - -
1985 2.522 2.522 - - 219 86 305 - -1
1986 2.302 2.302 - - 219 79 298 - -
1987 2,083 2.083 - - 219 71 290 - -
1988 1,864 1.864 - - 219 63 282 - -
1989 1.645 1.645 - - 219 56 275 - -i

THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 49
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY UNITED STATES
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 27.565 43.889 5.755 2.679 1,327 830 2.157 98 -

1971 28.915 48.218 2.855 7,764 1,324 824 2.148 - -
1972 35.355 49.749. 2.000 2,638 1.526 1.079 2,605 -
1973 36.469 50,224 2.000 2.064 1.456 837 2.293 38 1
1974 37.077 50.731 2.300 4,955 1,755 960 2.715 - -1
1975 40.277 51.275 7,700 6,026 1,833 1.094 2,927 33 -
1976 44.437 57.109 2.500 2,680 2.237 1.164 3.401 2.190 -7
1977 44.875 55.175 4,000 3.197 2.097 1.269 3.366 . 5
1978 45.979 57.083 - 5.750 2.515 1.522 4,037 - -
1979 49,214 54.568 5,000 1.931 2,275 1,305 3,580 - - F-
1980 48,870 57,293 0

**
* * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1980 48,870 57.293 - 2.614 2,787 1,349 4.136 - -

1981 48.697 54.506 - 2,130 2.376 1.379 3,755 - -3
1982 48,448 52.127 - 1.926 2.609 1,423 4.032 - 2
1983 47,767 49.520 - 1.153 2,263 1,382 3,645 - I
1984 46,658 47,258 - 300 2.278 1.314 3.592 - -
1985 44,680 44.980 - 150 1,896 1,274 3.170 - -1
1986 42,933 43.083 - 100 1,916 1.264 3,180 - -
1987 41.117 41.167 - 50 1,838 1.219 3.057 - -
1988 39.329 39.329 - - 1.844 1.165 3.009 - -1
1989 37.484 37.484 - - 1.811 1,110 2,921 - I

+ THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY PAGE 50
COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS ANO OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT
SERVICE PAYMENTS.

BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979 ¶

PROJECTIONS
DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS
TOTAL
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T IO N S D U R I N G P E R I ao OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

INCLUbING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: DISBURSED
UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- ----------- : LATIONS MENT *
: ONLY
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (B) (9)
: (1)

60,788 5,755 3,728 2,41t 1.2i9 3,630 98 -tog

t970 35,749
63,926 12,166 8.729 2.376 . 1.3t5 3.691 - 1.042
t97t 36,702
43.017 74,758 11,352 7.793 2.668 1.670 4.338 - -222
1972
83,220 35.572 10.654 2.800 1,502 4,302 38 799
t973 48.132
55,610 t16,753 6.600 f1.874 3.too 1.896 4.996 - 3.300
1974 -6.256
67,565 123,553 48.411 13,408 3.926 2.424 6,350 34
1975 1.963
74,769 161,748 11,000 29.048 4.034 2.389 6.423 2.696
1976 8.627
100,691 167,981 21.019 23.390 4,964 3.846 8.810 4.022
1977
123.258 188,641 15.522 48.792 6,684 5.633 12,317 - 12.452
1978 -6.685
209,931 151.180 11.099 9.743 7.212 16.955 6
1979 173,01t 00
1980 172.518 344,677

* s ^ * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * $ * * * *

344,677 - 93.714 18.639 10.230 28,869 - -998

1980 172.518
325,040 - 46.063 18.530 14.299 32.829 - -5
1981 246,593
274.122 306,505 - 15.995 21.605 14,174 35.779 - 3
1982
268,515 284,903 - 10.487 21.217 13.376 34.593 - 4
1983
263,690 - 3.018 20.717 12.338 33,055 - 1
1984 257,790
240,091 242,974 - 1.509 19.177 11.326 30.503 - -1
1985
223.796 - 942 19.055 10.371 29.426 - 1
1986 222,421
204.742 - 432 17.713 9.411 27.124 - -1
1987 204,310
. - 15.577 8.531 24.108 - -4
1988 1S7.028 187.028
171,447 - - 15.753 7.842 23.595 - 2
1989 171,447

FROM ONE
THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF OEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 51
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

FOOTNOTE: DEBTS EXCLUDED BECAUSE REPAYMENT TERMS UNKNOWN.

TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEST

TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS

YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT

BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING
ONLY :UNDISBURSED

t9g0 420 420

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.2: PARAGUAY
PAGE 52
SERVICE PAYMENIS, COMMITMENFS, OIS8URSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBI

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUrSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF FLOW REGULAR PUBLIC DEBT
TOTAL
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 O Ot1HER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBJRSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT t
(2) : : ::PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1970 104,593 151.661 13.871 14.615 7.102 3.512 10.614 98 -102

1971 111.744 158.230 18.334 17.789 8.342 4.588 12.930 396 2.284
1972 122,258 170,110 30.786 16.252 8.806 . 5,440 14.246 1,007 1,745
1973 131,654 192.828 42,720 19.852 10.124 5,656 15,780 74 4,864
1974 145.006 230.214 96.963 24,698 10.569 6,069 16.638 - 4,187
1975 163,189 320.795 133,367 41.758 14.131 7.545 21,676 34 -6.733
1976 188,068 433.264 43,013 58.704 11.950 7.845 19,795 2.696 2,994
1977 236.059 464.625 95.425 110,501 16,186 10.508 26,694 6,973 10.113
1978 335.747 547.004 199,367 108.815 20.030 . 15.596 35,626 .1.618 17,747
1979 434.788 742.470 326.604 81,931 28.645 22.100 50,745 32.419 -1.826
1980 490,522 1.006,184 *

THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED + * * t * *

1980 490,522 1.006,184 - 192.604 66.401 32,205 98.606 - -6,230

1981 613.626 933.553 - 119.656 74.752 38,877 113.629 - -5
1982 658.525 85Q,796 - 73.818 79.124 39.613 118,737 - 1
1983 653.217 779.673 56,700 59.370 38.147 97,5i7 - 1
1984 650.649 720,304 - 34.3i7 63.843 36,368 100.211 - 3
1985 621.025 656.464 - 17.309 59.945 33.825 93.770 - -2
1986 578.384 596.517 - 10,327 56.586 30,362 86,948 - 2
1987 532.127 539.933 - 5,885 50.709 27.026 77.735 - I
1988 487,304 489,225 - 1.643 49.024 23,935 72.959 - -1

1989 439.920 440.200 - 233 44.370 21.029 65,399 - 4

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOtJNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY tO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.3: PARAGUAY PAGE I

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

TYPE OF CREDITOR D FB T O U T S T A N D I N G I N A R R E A R S
CREDITOR COUNTRY ----------------------------------- -----------------------
CURRENCY OF DRAWINGS DISBURSED UNDISBURSED: TOTAL PRINCIPAL INTEREST

MULTILATERAL LOANS
IDB
DRAWINGS IN LOCAL CURRENCY 47.049 20.270 67.319 - -
DRAWINGS IN FOREIGN CURRENCY 54.300 - 54.300 - -
TOTAL IDt 101.349 20.270 121.619 - -
TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 101,349 20,270 121.619 - -

BILATERAL LOANS
UNITED STATES
DRAWINGS IN LOCAL CURRENCY 5.666 - 5.666 78 15
TOTAL UNITED STATES 5.666 - 5.666 78 15
TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 5.666 - 5.666 78 15

TOTAL EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT tO7.015 20.270 127.285 78 15

NOTES: () ONLY DEBTS WITH AN ORIGINAL OR EXTENDED MATURITY OF OVER ONE YEAR ARE INCLUDED IN THIS TABLE.
(2) DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDES PRINCIPAL IN ARREARS BUT EXCLUDES INTEREST IN ARREARS.
 Table 4.4: PARACUAY PAGF 1

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS 8ASEDON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL tOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY IDB
CURRENCY OF DRAWINGS DRAWINGS IN LOCAL CURRENCY
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S fl U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E P V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS --------
-_-_- ---------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1975 24.088 4i.137 6,887 11,345 335 1.060 g

1,395 -

1976 35.097 47.689 900 8,142 389 1.349 1.738 - -1

1977 42,849 48,199 6.800 4,119 443 1.396 1.839 -

1978 46.526 54.557 5,600 i.157 1.930 1.553 3.483 - -

1979 45.753 58.227 11,100 3.305 2,011 1.435 3,446 - 3

1980 47,049 67,3t9

* * * * . * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * *. *

1980 47.049 67,319 - 2,839 1.987 1.463 3,450 -°

1981 47.901 65.332 - 3.514 t.949 f.419 3,368 - -

1982 49,466 63.383 - 3.776 1.941 1.379 3.320 - -

1983 51.300 61.442 - 3.637 1 .94f 1.336 3.277 - -1

1984 52.995 59.500 - 2.802 1.941 1.286 3.227 - 1
1985 53.856 57.560 - 1.829 2.264 1.340 3.604 - I
1986 53,421 55.297 - 1.085 2.385 1.268 3.653 - 2
1987 52.122 52.914 - 696 2.497 1,221 3,718 - -1
1988 50.320 50.416 - 97 2.645 1,166 3.811 - -
1989 47,771 47.771 - - 2.866 1.141 4.007 - -1

* lHIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT Of ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN IHE AMOnJNT OUTSTANDING' INCLUDING UNDtSBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER UF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGOPY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.4: PARAGUAY PAGE 2
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASEDON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF CREOITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY IOB
CURRENCY OF DRAWINGS DRAWINGS IN FOREIGN CURRENCY
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S DLU R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY :UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS -_------ ----------- LATIONS MENT t

PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL

: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1975 38.804 66.493 - 4.282 1.495 1.43i 2.926 - -

1976 41,591 64.998 - 5.109 1,755 1.535 3.290 8 -
1977 44.945 63.235 - 8.348 2.016 1,497 3.513 5 -
i978 51.277 61.2i4 - 9.923 3.185 2.116 5.301 14 2
1979 58,017 58.017 - - 3.718 1.982 5.700 - I
1980 54.300 54.300

* * * * * *'THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * 4 4 *

1980 54,300 54.300 - - 3.681 1,856 5,537 - -

¶981 50.619 50.619 - - 3.690 1.731 5.421 - - 0
1982 46.929 46.929 - - 3.696 1.605 5.301 - -1
1983 43.232 43.232 , - - 3,674 1,479 5.153 - -1
1984 39.557 39.557 - - 3.464 1.358 4.822 - 2
¶985 36.095 36.095 - - 3.140 1.240 4.380 - -1
1986 32.954 32.954 - - 3.101 1.132 4.233 - I
1987 29.854 29,854 - - 3.041 1.027 4.068 - -2
1988 26.811 26.811 - - 3.044 921 3.965 - -t
i989 23.766 23.766 - - 3.047 815 3.862 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.4: PARAtUAY
PAGE 3
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEST

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEST REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF CREOITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY IDB
TOTAL
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY :UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (t) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1975 62.892 107,630 6.887 15.627 i.830 2,491 4.32 - -

1976 76.688 112,687 900 13.251 2.144 2.884 5,028 8 -1
1977 87.794 111,434 6.,00 12.467 2.459 2,893 5,352 5 1
1978 97.803 115.771 5,600 11.080 5.115 3.669 8,784 14 2
1979 103.770 116.244 11.100 3.305 5.729 3.417 9,146 - 4
1980 101.349 121.619

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTEDC * . * *I

1980 101.349 121.619 - 2.839 5.668 3.319 8,987 - -0

1981 98.520 115.951 - 3,514 5,639 3.150 8.789 - - '4
1982 96.395 110.312 - 3.776 5.637 2,984 8.621 - -1
1983 94.532 104,674 - 3,637 5.615 2.815 8,430 - -2
1984 92.552 99.057 - 2.802 5.405 2,644 8,049 - 3
1985 89.951 93.655 - 1.829 5.404 2.580 7.984 - -
1986 86.375 88.251 - 1.085 5.486 2.400 7,886 - 3
1987 81.976 82.768 - 696 5.538 2.248 7.786 - -3
t988 77.131 77.227 - 97 5.689 2.087 7,776 - -t
1989 71.537 7i.537 - - 5.913 1.956 7.869 - -1

t THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGFS IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.4: PARAGUAY PAGE 4
SERVICE PAYMENTS, CUMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISURSED AS OF DEC. 31. 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS
TOTAL
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T IO N S D U R I N G P E R IO D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED INCLUD,ING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

: ONLY UNDIS8URSED MENTS MENTS :-----------:---------------------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1975 62,892 107,630 6.887 15,627 1.830 2,491 4,321 - -

1976 76.688 112,687 900 13.251 2.144 2.884 5.028 a8
1977 87.794 ilt.434 6,800 12,467 2.459 2.893 5.352 5 1
1978 97,803 115.771 5.600 11.080 5.115 3,669 8.784 14 2
1979 103.770 116.244 11.100 3,305 5.729 3.417 9.146 - 4
1980 101.349 121,619

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * *

1980 101.349 121.619 -. 2,839 5.668 3,319 8.987 - -

1981 98.520 115.951 - 3.514 5,639 3.150 8.789 - - I
t982 96,395 110.312 - 3.776 5,637 2.984 8,621 - -i
1o
1983 94.532 104.674 - 3.637 5,615 2,815 8.430 - -2 °°
1984 92.552 99.057 . - 2.802 5.405 2.644 8.049 - 3 1
1985 89.951 93.655 - 1.829 5.404 2.580 7.984 - -
1986 86.375 88,251 - 1,085 5,486 2.400 7,886 - 3
1987 81.976 82.768 - 696 5.538 2.248 7.786 - -3
1988 77,131 77.227 - 97 5.689 2,087 7.776 - -1
1989 71.537 71,537 - - 5,913 1.956 7.869 - -1

+ THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.4: PARAGItY
PAGE 5
SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS RASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISRURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. OOLLARS)
TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY UNITED STATES
CURRENCY OF DRAWINGS DRAWINGS IN LOCAL CURRENCY
YEAR DE8T OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD
B
~~~~~~~--------------------
r-~ ~ :~--- -- - -- - -- --------
- -- - ~ ~
---------
- -~-~ ~--------------- --- : ----------------------
: DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-
: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS- ----- _-- ----------- ----------- LATIONS MENT *
: * , : : : : PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (1) : (2) : (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1975 9,219 9.219 - - 913 250 1,163 -

1976 8.307 8,307 - - 571 243 814 - -

1977 7.736 7.736 - - 678 238 916 - -

1978 7,058 7,058 - _ 765 233 998 1

1979 6,294 6,294 - - 628 228 856 - -

1980 5,666 5.666

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * *

1980 5.666 5.666 - - 844 187 1.031 -78 co

1981 4;744 4.744 - - 884 154 1.038 - -l
1982 3.859 3.859 - - 771 1f8 889 - -1
1983 3.087 3,087 - - 713 89 802 - -1
1984 2,373 2.373 - - 725 60 785 1
1985 1,649 1,649 - - 533 30 563 - -1
1986 1.115 1.115 - - 344 Is 359 - -
1987 771 771 -- 1t10 5 t15 - -2
1988 659 659 - - 353 5 358 - I
1989 307 307 - - 64 2 66 - -I

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUFSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSEO FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RA7ES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
EROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOIHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.4: PARAGUAY
PAGE 6
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED
ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979
DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS
CREDITOR COUNTRY UNITED STATES
TOTAL
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- ----------- ----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (B) (9)

1975 9.219 9,219 - - 9t3 250 1.163 -

1976 8.307 8,307 - - 57it 243 814 - -
1977 7.736 7,736 - - 678 238 916 - -
1978 7,058 7.058 - - 765 233 998 -
1979 6.294 6,294 - - 628 228 856 - -
1980 5,666 5.666

* * * 'THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED t * * * * *

1980 5,666 5.666 - - 844 187 1.031 - -78

t98t 4.744 4,744 - - 884 154 1,038 - -1
1982 3.859 3.859 - - 771 118 889 - -1
1983 3,087 3.087 - - 713 89 802 - -1
1984 2.373 2.373 - - 725 60 785 - I
1985 1,649 1.649 - - 533 30 563 - -1
1986 1.115 1.115 - - 344 15 359 - -
1987 771 771 - - 110 5 115 - -2
1988 659 659 - - 353 5 358 -
1989 307 307 - - 64 2 66 - -

THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.4: PARAGUAY
PAGE 7
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEST OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

DEST REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY
(IN THOlOSANDS OF UCS. DOLLARS)
TYPE OI CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS
TOTAL
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
: BEGINNING OF PERIOD

: DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-

* ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *
PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
(1) (2) (: (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1975 9.219 9,219 - - 913 250 l.t63 - I

1976 8.307 8.307 - - 571 243 814
1977 7.736 7.736 - - 678 238 9t6
1978 7.05f 7.058 - - 765 233 998 -
1979 6.294 6,294 - - 628 228 856
1980 5.666 5.666

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1980 5.666 5.666 - - 844 187 1.031 - -78 H

1981 4.744 4,744 - 884 154 1.038 - -1 '
1982 3.859 3,859 - - 771 it8 889 - -1 H
1983 3.087 3.087 - - 713 89 802 - -1
1984 2.373 2.373 - - 725 60 785 - 1
1985 1i649 1.649 - - 533 30 563 - -1
1986 1,115 1.115 - - 344 15 359 - -
1987 771 771 - - 110 5 115 - -2
1988 659 659 - - 353 5 358 - 1
1989 307 307 - - 64 2 66 - -

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CMANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 Table 4.4: PARAGUAY
PAGE8
SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENT.S. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISRURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1979

DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY
(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
TOTAL
YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
BEGINNING OF PERIOD

D
DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST-
: ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS MENT *
: :.: : : PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL
: (t) (2) : (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1975 72,-111 116.849 6,887 15.627 2.743 2,741 5,484 -

1976 84,995 120.994 900 13,251 2.715 3,127 5,842 8 -1
1977 95,530 119.170 6.800 12,467 3,137 3,131 6,268 5 1
1978 104,861 122.829 5,600 11.080 5,880 3.902 9,782 14 3
1979 110.064 122,538 11.100 3.305 6,357 3,645 10,002 - 4
1980 iO7.015 127,285

* * * * * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *

1980 107,015 127,285 ' 2,839 6.512 3,506 10.018 - -78

1981 103.264 120.695 3,514 6.523 3.304 9,827 - -1
1982 100.254 114.171 - 3.776 6,408 3,102 9,510 - -2 .
1983 97.619 107,761 - 3.637 6,328 2,904 9,232 - -3
1984 94,925 101,430 - 2.802 6,130 2,704 8,834 - 4
1985 91,600 95,304 - 1.829 5,937 2.610 8.547 - -1
1986 87,490 89,366 - 1.085 5.830 2,415 8,245 - 3
1987 82,747 83,539 - 696 5,648 2,253 7,901 - -5
1988 77.790 77.886 - 97 6.042 2,092 8,134 - -
1989 71,944 71,844 - - 5.977 1,958 7,935 - -2

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE
YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DERTS
FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE.
 - 193 -

Table 5.1: PARAGUAY - PUBLIC SECTORRESOURCESFOR INVESTMENT,1972-79

(In millionsof guaranies)

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

I. Sources

A. CurrentAccount Surplus 1,741 3,356 5,791 7,365 7,994 13.113 18,940 24,259
1. Central Government 683 2,002 3,953 5,091 4l373 9,595 14,280 :17,427
CentralAdministration 317 1,407 3,210 3,426 2,831 7,502 11,501 14,732
Social SecurityInstitutions 336 435 518 1,512 1,355 1,967 2,484 2,395
DecentralizedAgencies 30 160 225 153 187 126 295 300

2. Municipalities 173 196 148 301 214 271 390 693

3. Public Enterprises 885 1,158 1,690 1,973 3,407 3,247 4,270 6,139

B. Capital Receipts 50 44 73 74 172 57 834 1,646

C. Borrowing 4,385 3,615 4,719 11,591 8,582 9,878 10,935 8,567

1. External 0 2,697 2,835 4,296 10,550 7,340 8,149 9,603 6,534
2. Domestic 1,688 780 423 1,041 1,242 1,729 1,332 2,033

Total 6,176 7_,015 10 30 16 74 34,472

23,048 0

II. Uses

A. InvestmentExpenditures 5,014 5,393 6,616 15,999 13,718 14,857 22,598 23,741

1. Gross Fixed Investment 4,573 4,966 6,121 10,186 13,399 14,290 19,927 22,327
(a) CentralGovernment 1,694 1,627 1,960 4,112 6,474 6,346 9,644 11,063
Central Administration 1,477 1,393 1,735 3,781 5,885 5,713 8,941 9,638
Social SecurityInstitutions 85 72 55 325 392 415 583 1,226
DecentralizedAgencies 132 162 170 6 197 218 °120 199

(b) Municipalities 113 231 274 368 571 474 817 907

(c) PublicEnterprises 2,766 3,138 3,887 5,706 6,354 7,470 9,466 10,357

2. FinancialInvestment 441 397 495 5,813 319 567 2,671 1,414

B. AmortizationPayments 1,475 2,105 4,331 1,461 2,182 3,174 2,814 5,226

1. External 882 848 945 760 1,240 1,668 1,729 4,044
2. Domestic 593 1,257 3,386 701 942 1,506 1,085 1,182

C. Cash Balances/1 -313 -483 -364 1,570 848 5,017 5,297 5,505

Total 6,176 7,015 10,583 19,030 16,748 34,472

/1 Balancingitem.

Sources: Ministryof Finance;TechnicalPlanning Secretariat;IMF; Mission Estimates.

 - 194 -

Table 5.2: PARAGUAY - PUBLIC SECTOR RESOURCES FOR INVESTMENT,1972-79

(Percentagedistribution)

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

I. Sources

A. Current account surplus 28.2 47.8 54.7 38.7 47.7 56.9 61.7 70.4

1. Central government 11.1 28.5 37.3 26.8 26.1 41.6 46.5 50.6
Central administration 5.1 20.0 30.3 18.0 16.9 32.6 37.4 42.7
Social security institutions 5.5 6.2 4.9 8.0 8.1 8.5 8.1 7.0
Decentralizedagencies 0.5 2.3 2.1 0.8 1.1 0.5 1.0 0.9

2. Municipalities 2.8 2.8 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 2.0

3. Public enterprises 16.5 16.0 10.4 20.3 14.1 13.9 17.8

B. Capital Receipts 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.3 2.7 4.8

C. Borrowing 71.0 51.5 44.6 60.9 51.2 42.9 35.6 24.8

1. External 43.7 40.4 40.6 55.4 43.8 35.4 31.3 18.9

2. Domestic 27.3 11.1 4.0 5.5 7.4 7.5 4.3 5.9

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

II. Uses

A. Investment expenditures 81.2 76,9 62.5 84.1 81.9 64.5 73.6 68.9

1. Gross fixed investment 74.0 70.8 57.8 53.5 80.0 62.0 64.9 64.8
(a) Central government 27.4 23.2 18.5 21.6 38.7 27.5 31.4 32.2
Central administration 23.9 19.9 16.4 19.9 35.2 24.8 29.1 28.0
Social security institutions 1.4 1.0 0.5 1.7 2.3 1.8 1.9 3.6
Decentralized agencieo 2.1 2.3 1.6 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.6

(b) Municipalities 1.8 3.3 2.6 1.9 3.4 2.1 2.7 2.6

(c) Public enterprises 44.8 44.7 36.7 30.0 37.9 32.4 30.8 30.0

2. Financial investment 7.1 5.7 4.7 30.6 1.9 2.5 8.7 4.1

B. Amortization payments 23.9 30.0 40.9 7.7 13.0 13.7 9.1 15.1

1. External 14.3 12.1 8.9 4.0 7.4 7.2 5.6 11.7

2. Domestic 9.6 17.9 32.0 3.7 5.6 6.5 3.5 3.4

C. Cash balances -5.1 -6.5 -3.4 8.2 5.1 21.8 17.3 16.0

TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Table 5.1

 - 195 -

Table 5.3: PARAGUAY: CENTRAL ADMINISTRATIONOPERATIONS, 1972-1979

(In millions of guaranies)

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Current revenues 9,370 11,563 16,266 17,919 19,244 26,379 34,341 43,662

Tax revenues 8,306 10,507 14,994 16,419 17,446 24,230 31,519 40,382
Taxes on net income and profits 963 1,144 1,715 2,425 2,582 3,455 5,359 6,850
Employers' payroll taxes 120 53 165 212 248 300 346 414
Taxes on property 734 1,053 1,359 1,488 1,630 2,208 2,764 3,390
Taxes on goods and services 2,849 3,223 4,439 4,679 5,014 6,449 7,856 9,642
General sales taxes 442 567 782 832 1,047 1,600 2,128 2,885
Selective excises on goods 1,498 2,229 3,228 3,409 3,471 4,254 4,936 5,951
Other taxes 909 427 429 438 496 595 792 806
Taxes on international trade and
transactions 2,644 3,451 5,219 5,365 5,291 8,123 10,525 13,977
Import duties 1,562 2,129 3,135 3,264 3,623 5,559 7,570 10,132
Export duties 177 162 361 324 269 351 331 374
Exchange taxes 905 1,160 1,723 1,777 1,399 2,213 2,624 3,470
Other taxes 1,028 1,583 2,097 2,250 2,681 3,695 4,669 6,110
Non-tax revenues 1,064 1,056 1,272 1,500 1,798 2,149 2,822 3,280

Current expenditures 9.053 10,155 13,056 14,492 16,413 18,877 22,840 28,930

Wages and salaries 4,193 4,490 5,096 6,126 7,326 8,529 10,125 12,199
Purchases of goods and services 1,699 1,953 2,734 3,730 3,671 4,204 4,762 5,474
Interest payments 329 296 323 364 372 688 851 1,308
Subsidies and other transfers 1,662 1,912 2,286 2,784 3,252 3,721 4,338 5,753
To rest of general government 453 428 525 855 783 969 1,189 1,556
To state enterprises 74 71 240 210 257 213 208 363
To official financial institutions 15 15 55 52 52 52 95 232
Abroad 39 28 69 76 99 217 194 236
Other 1,081 1,370 1.392 1,588 2,061 2,270 2,652 3,366
Other, unclassified 1,170 1,504 2,622 1,489 1,792 1,735 2,764 4,196

Current account surplus 317 1,408 3,210 3,426 2,831 7,502 11,501 14,732

Capital receipts - - - 4 11 42 322 1,333/2

Capital expenditures 1,989 1,951 2.648 4,502 6,679 6,899 11,596 11,842

Capital formation 1,477 1,393 1,735 3,781 5,885 5,713 8,941 9,638
Acquisition of existing assets 29 5 6 7 2 69 24 17
Transfers 463 553 907 714 792 1,117 2,631 2,187
To rest of general government 62 32 4 11 18 8 82 -
To state enterprises 228 300 728 484 515 680 857 1,064
To official financial institutions 164 192 169 208 165 402 1,487l1 734
Other 9 29 6 11 94 27 205 389

Other Capital Expenditure 20 - - - - - - -

Net Lending - - - - -3 -2 -3 682

Overall surplus or deficit (-) -1,633 -543 552 -1,072 -3,834 647 230 3,541

Financing 1,633 543 -552 1,072 3,834 -647 -230 -3,541

External 763 554 756 1,373 3,339 2,507 1,736 2,529

Drawings 1,280/5 920 1,285 1,953 3,769 3,389 2,675 4,158
Repayments -517 -366 -529 -580 -430 -882 -1,029 -1,629

Internal 870 -11 -1,318 -301 495 -3,154 -1,966 -6,070

Central Bank, net ... -25 -1,867 -448 -280 -2,944 -5,397 -7,807
Rest of banking system ... -63 27 6 32 -113 -1 -157
Change in floating debt ... -55 677 47 627 -687 141 486
Other/3 ... 132 -155 -394 116 595 3,291 1,408

Sources: IMF; Mission estimates.

/1 Includes Guar. 1,300 million corresponding to assumption by the Central Administration of BNF debt to Central Bank.

/2 Includes Guar. 1,300 million corresponding to Central Bank profits used to cancel central government debt with the
Central Bank.

/3 Includes statistical discrepancies arising from lags in central government accounting of drawings and amortization
of foreign loans and external debt figures.

/4 Adjusted for nonbudgetary use of foreign loans corresponding to purchase of airplanes by the Ministry of Defense.

/5 Includes P.L. 480.

 - 196 -

Table 5.4: PARAGUAY - SUMMARY OPERATIONS OF THE SOCIAL SECURITY INSTITUTIONS, 1972-79

(in millions of guaranies)

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Revenue and transfers 1,322 1,490 1,851 2,986 3,285 4,118 5,176 6,474

Social security contributions 1,133 1,365 1,682 2,723 2,980 3,714 4,972 6,235
Nontax revenue 154 93 132 217 270 340 140 174
Transfers 35 32 37 46 35 64 64 65
From central administration 28 25 29 30 35 64 64 65
From public enterprises 25 7 8 16 - - - -

Current expenditures 986 1,055 1,333 1,474 1,930 2,151 2,692 4,079

Consumption expenditures 772 827 979 1,028 1,317 1,429 1,777 2,803
Purchase of goods and services 292 337 344 399 475 511 672 1,220
Compensation of government employees 480 490 635 629 842 918 1,105 1,583

Transfers 201 222 329 421 562 705 865 1,173

To other levels of Government 3 - - - - - - -

To households 198 222 329 421 562 705 865 1,173
Other Current Expenditure 13 6 25 25 51 17 50 103

Current Account Supplies 336 435 518 1,512 1,355 1,967 2,484 2,395

Capital Receipts 2 4 10 - - 3 40 50

Capital Expenditure 261 244 279 341 420 458 590 1,226

Capital Formation 85 72 55 325 392 415 235 1,226

Acquisition of existing assets 176 157 224 16 28 43 7 -
Change in inventories - - - - - - 348 -

Net Lending - - 58 95 100 76 85 147

Overall Surplus or Deficit (-) 77 195 191 1,076 835 1,436 1,849 1,072

Financing -77 -195 -191 -1,076 -835 -1,436 -1,849 -1,072

Internal Financing -77 -195 -191 -1,076 -835 -1,436 -1,849 -1,072
Monetary Authorities (net) - - - -1 - - -240 955
Rest of Banking System (net) -77 -195 -191 -1,075 -835 -1,436 -1,609 -583
and Other

Sources: IMF, Mission Estimates.

 - 197 -

Table 5.5: PARAGUAY: OPERATIONS OF THE DECENTRALIZED AGENCIES

(In millions of guaranies)

Prel. Est.
1972 1973 1i94 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

Revenue and transfers 762 816 877 908 1,070 1,164 1,639 1,996 2,521
Nontax revenue 357 395 384 265 395 325 504 553 694
Sales of goods and services 144 272 293 257 350 280 415 459 574
Other 213 123 91 8 45 45 89 94 120
Transfers from other levels of
General Government 405 421 493 643 675 839 1,135 1,443 1,827

Current expenditure 732 656 652 755 883 1,038 1,344 1,696 2,217
Consumption expenditure 493 581 620 702 839 978 1,255 1,555 2,024
Purchase of goods and services 108 144 154 136 191 193 287 367 480
Compensation of employees 385 437 466 571 648 785 968 1,188 1,544
Interest payments 37 31 11 12 23 20 24 24 24
Transfers 133 44 9 12 12 2 17 29 39
To households 92 12 8 10 10 1 16 26 36
Abroad 4 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 3
Other current expenditure 106 31 12 24 9 38 48 88 130

Current account surplus 30 160 225 153 187 126 295 300 304

Capital receipts 73 74 16 19 18 12 73 5 5
Transfers 62 71 4 15 18 8 42 - -
From Central Administration 11 3 4 11 18 8 25 - -
From public enterprises - - - 4 - - - - -
From abroad - - - _ - - 17 - -
Other - - 12 4 - 4 31 5 5

Capital expenditure 169 185 173 34 197 224 192 379 744
Capital formation 110 102 163 118 154 112 116 193 538
Changes in inventories 22 60 7 -112 43 106 4 6 6
Acquisition of existing assets 37 23 5 28 - 6 72 180 200

Net lending - - - 258 88 373 - 67 -601

Overall surplus or deficit t-) -66 49 68 -120 -80 -459 176 -141 166

Financing 66 -49 -68 120 80 459 -176 141 -166

External financing (net) 34 41 76 88 113 76 -34 -50 13
Internal financing (net) 32 -90 -144 32 -33 383 -142 191 -179

Source: IMF, Mission Estimates.

 - 198 -

AGENCIES, 1972-79
Table 5- 6PARAGUAY - OPERATIONSOF DECENTRALIZED

(in nillions of guaranies)

Net Current Capital

Transfers Transfers Overall
from Other Capital Surplus Net Not
Current from Other
Foreign Levels of Ebpen- or Financ- faternal Internal
Expen- Currant Levels of
Governmt Grants Government diture Deficit ing Borroeing Borrowing
Revenue ditura Surplus
1972

-29 20 11 3 47 -42 42 5 37
Rural Welfare Institute (IBR) 184 213
-- 276 -276 285 tO -I I --
National University (UNA) -I
1 4 -3 13 -- -- 9 1 -1 --
Capital Road Council (JVC) 2 2 -2 __ -2
(JVR) 6 2 4 -- -- --
Regional Road Council _I
5 -5 4 __ ,_ -- -I 1
Direction of Road Councils (DGVJ) --
7 2 __ __ 26 -17 17 -5 22
Port Pres. Stroessner (CAPPs) 44 37
-12 33 -- 34 24 31 -31 -12 -19
Nousing Institute (IPVU) 67 79
-62 45 -- -- 49 -66 66 56 10
Anti Foot end Mouth Institute (SENALFA) 31 93
-22 -- -- 25 2 1 -I -- -I
Inatitute of Technology and Standards (INTN) 1 23

-398 402 11 62 169 -92 92 44 46

Total 334 732

1973

-7 2 - 9 -- 4 -4 -- -4
Municipal Development Institute (IDl -- 7
135 16 3 __ 80 76 -76 6 -82
Rural Welfare Institute (IBR) 277 142 4
__ 12 44 -
National University (UNA) - 283 -283 291 __
-3 13 -- -- 9 1 - -- -I
Capital Road Council (NVC) 1 4
__ __ __ 3 1 -I -- -I
Regional Road Council (JVR) 7 3 4
5 __ __ 1 -I 1 -- I
Direction of Road Councils (DGVJ) -- 5 -5
12 1 __ __ __ 13 -13 -7 -6
Port Pres. Stroessner (CAPPs) 48 36
-27 29 36 10 28 -28 -14 -14
Housing Institute (IPVU) 44 71 -_
61 -- -- 62 -77 77 58 19
Anti Foot and Mouth Instituts (SENALFA) 16 92 -76
_- __ 25 7 -2 2 - 2
Institute of Technology and Standards (1WTN) 1 21 -20
420 3 70 184 39 -39 43 -82
Total 394 664 -270

1974

4 -- 4 5 -14 14 41 -27
Municipal Developent Institute (ID1) - 14 -14
138 36 -- -- 49 125 -125 -- -125
Rural Welfare Institute (IBR) 288 150
325 __ __ 18 -- -- -- --
National University (UNA) -- 307 -307
4 -3 16 -- -- 19 -6 6 -- 6
Capital Road Council (JVC) 1
__ __ __ __ __
Regional Road Council (JVR)
1 -- _- __ __
(DGVS) -- 5 -5 6 _
Dlraction of Road Councils -- 9 4 -4 -7 3
(CAPPS) 65 52 13 -- --
Port Pres. Stroessner -58 89 200 -112
49 75 -26 33 -- 2 97
Housing Institute (IPVU) -77 77 82 -5
(SENALFA) 30 110 -80 76 -- -_ 73
Anti Foot and Mouth Institute 6 -- __ __ __
and Standards (INTN) 1 25 -24 30 _ __
Institute of Technology

-308 526 __ 6 280 -56 56 31O -260

Total 434 742

1975

11 __ 15 1 -3 3 55 -52
Municipal Development Institute (ION2) 1 29 -28
63 __ __ 60 176 -176 _ -176
ural Welfare Institute (IBR) 222 169 51
429 23 1 -13 1
National University (UNA) 'I 393 -393
Capital Road Council (JVC) -, 6 -6 16
,- -- __ -_ __ __ _;
Regional Road Council (JiR) - -- -- --
6 -6 8 __ _ _ _ __
Direction of Road Councilo (DGVJ) -207
-_ 36 _ 2 276 .0 70 277
Port Pres. Stroessner (CAPPS) - _-
121 -79 72 __ 2 51 -58 58 49 9
Housing Institute (IPVU) 482 94
2 7 242 -- 5 45 18 49
Anti Foot and Mourn Institute(SENALFA) 45 __ __ 4 4
Institute of Technology and Standards (INTN) -- 37 -37
686 __ 17 IlI 5Y 58 381 .439
Total 347 875 -52&
 - 199 -

AGENCIES, 1972-79
- OPERATIONSOF DECENTRALIZED
Table 5.6: PARAGUAY

(in silliosn of guaranies)

Page 2
Net Capital
Transfers Transferr Overall
Current from other from other Capital Surplus Net Net
Expen- Current Levels of Foreign Levels of Expen- or External Internal
Revenue diture Surplus Government Grants Government ditures Deficit Financing Borrowing Borrowing

1976

Municipal Development Institute (IDM) 15 35 -20 17 _ 14 1 10 -10 120 -130

Rural Welfare Institute (]BR) 280 183 97 41 - - 78 60 -60 - -60
Sational University (UNA) 475 -475 497 _ _ 23 -I I
Capital Road Council (JIVC) - - - - - -
Regional Road Council (JVR) - - - - _ _ _ _ _ _
Direction of Road Council (DGUJ) - -
Port Pres. Stroessner (CAPPS) - -
Housing Institute (IPVt) 500 123 377 44 - 2 290 133 -133 188 -321
Aati-Foot and Mouth Institute (SENALFA) 85 139 -54 83 - - 13 16 -16 6 -22
Institute of Technology and Standards
(INTN) 1 44 -43 42 - - 5 -6 6 - 6

Total 881 /L 999 -118 724 - 16 410 712 -212 314 -526

1977

Mov,icip.l Development Institute (IDM) 52 46 6 14 - 8 11 17 -17 35 -52

Rural Welfare Institute (IBR) 218 223 -5 67 - - 135 -73 73 - 73
Notional University (UNA) - 553 -558 619 - - 68 -7 7 - 7
Capitol Road Council (JVC) - - - - - - -
Regional Road Council (JVR)
Directi"n of Road Councils (DSVJ) - - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Port Pre.s Stroessner (CAPPS)
Houlsing Institute (IPvU) 137 162 -25 36 _ 26 -9 46 -46 -79 32
Anti-Fost and Mouth Institute (SENALFA) 80 163 -83 91 - - 4 4 -4 -19 15
Institute of Technology and Standards
(INTN) - 50 -50 57 _6 1 -_1 - -

Total 487 1,202 -715 884 - 34 215 -12 12 -62 74

1978

Municipal Development Institute (IDM) 74 62 12 28 - 25 3 62 -62 - -62

Rural Welfare Institute (lBR) 402 382 20 72 - - 21 71 -71 -6 -65
National University (UNA) - 678 -678 757 - - 68 11 -11 - -11
Nousing Institute (IPVU) 128 156 -28 36 - 10 -89 107 -107 -101 -6
Anti-Foot and Mouth Institute (SENALFA) 25 203 -178 197 - - 5 14 -14 -20 6
Institute of Technology and Standards 4 79 -75 85 16 - 22 4 -4 -4
(INTO)

Total 633 1,560 -927 1.175 16 35 30 269 -269 -127 -142

1979

Municipal Development Institute (IDtM) 64 69 -5 60 - - 2 53 -53 -7 -46

Rural Welfare Institute (IBR) 475 327 148 68 - - 28 188 -188 - -188
NWtional University (UNA) - 826 -826 963 - - 137 - - - -
Housing Institute (IPVU) 170 196 -26 36 - 2 24 -12 12 -96 108
Anti-Foot and Mouth Inutitute (SENALFA) 10 224 -214 220 - - 11 -5 S -20 25
Institute of Technology and Standards _5 106 -101 119 _28 -10 lo - 1l
(IXTN)

Total 724 1,748 -1.024 1,466 - 2 230 214 -214 -123 -91

Note: Due to differences in definitions and format, this table does not balance with table 5.6.

/1 Includes 414 million guaranies of savingsby depositors,

Sournas, Ministry of Financ, and T.chnical Planning Secretariat.

 - 200 -

Table 5.7: PARAGUAY - SUMMARY OPERATIONS OF THE MUNICIPALITIES, 1972-1979

(in millions of guaranies)

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Revenue and transfers 553 595 601 846 1,050 1,348 1,541 1,993

Tax revenues 258 285 324 370 507 759 949 1,162
Nontax revenues 295 310 274 294 457 523 592 771
Transfers from Central Government - - 3 182 86 66 -- 60

Current expenditure 380 399 453 545 836 1.077 1.151 1,300
Consumption expenditure 330 348 376 447 715 932 953 1,128
Purchase of goods and services 65 58 70 88 246 300 207 254
Compensation of employees 265 290 306 359 469 632 746 874
Interest payments - 4 6 7 19 39 25 28
Subsidies and other transfers 9 8 15 17 15 25 25 36
To Central Administration -- -- -- -- -- -- 10 --
To decentralized agencies -- -- -- -- 13 -- 10 12
To households 9 8 15 17 2 25 5 24
Other current expenditures 41 39 56 74 87 81 148 108

Current account surplus 173 196 148 301 214 271 390 693

Capital receipts -- -- 57 32 161 8 168 176

Transfers -- -- -- -- -- 57 --
From Central Administration -- -- -- -- -- -- 57 --
Other -- -- 57 32 161 8 111 176

Capital expenditure 121 257 281 389 575 516 825 948
Capital formation 113 231 274 368 571 474 817 907
Acquisition of existing assets 2 5 2 16 4 42 3 40
Capital transfers 5 9 5 5 -- -- 5 1
To public enterprises -- -- -- -- -- 2 1
To financial intermediaries -- -- -- -- -- -- 3 --
Other 5 9 5 5
Other 1 12 -- -- -- -- -- --

Net lending -- -- -- -- -65 -19 -64 -75

Overall surplus or deficit (-) 52 -61 -76 -24 -135 -218 -203 -4

Financing -52 61 76 24 135 218 203 4

External financing (net) -25 25 -- -- -- 27 -5 -5
Internal financing (net) -27 36 76 24 135 191 208 9

Sources: IMF and Mission Estimates

 - 201-

Table 5.8: PARAGUAY: Operations of Public Enterprises, 1972-1979

(in millions of guaranies)

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Current receipts 4.252 5.136 7,226 8,677 9.967 13,659 16.865 24,083
Operating revenue 3,873 4,832 6,806 8,102 9,435 13,433 16,613 23,694
Sales of goods and services 3,817 4,769 6,728 7,991 9,255 12,991 16,159 23,186
Other revenue 56 63 78 111 180 442 454 5,08
Property income 14 10 12 24 98 13 18 18
Other income 291 223 168 341 177 - 26 8
Transfers from Central Government 74 71 240 210 257 213 208 363

Current expenditure 3.367 3.978 5,536 6.704 6 .560 2. 595 17.944

Operating expenditure 2,282 2,796 4,159 4,942 4,958 8,344 10,044 13,426
Purchase of goods and nonfactor
services 1,131 1,548 2,764 3,339 2,962 5,994 7,265 9,740
Compensation of employees 1,151 1,248 1,395 1,603 1,996 2,350 2,779 3,686
Other current expenditure 1,085 1,182 1,377 1,762 1,602 2,068 2,551 4,518
Interest 507 460 578 982 1/ 1,049 1/ 1,230 1/ 1,186 2/ 1,,7112/
Rent and royalties 12 12 10 8 47 53 73 93
Taxes 10 9 7 178 52 124 21 193
Transfers 74 70 66 42 57 66 62 122
To households 59 55 62 42 56 55 61 ]13
To General Government 15 15 - -
Abroad - - 4 - 1 11 1 9
Other 482 631 716 552 397 596 1,209 2,399

Current account surplus 885 1.158 1.690 1,973 3.407 3 4.270 6,L39

Capital receipts 228 315 728 522 515 680 1,172 1L47
Transfers 728 315 728 484 515 680 859 1,065
From Central Government 228 315 728 484 515 680 857 1,064
From municipalities - - - - - - 2 1
Other - - - 38 - - 313 82

Capital expenditure 2.785 3,153 3,887 12126 6437

6 10 799
Fixed capital formation 2,662 3,435 3,342 4,593 5,884 6,647 8,302 9,360
Changes in stocks 104 -297 545 1,113 470 823 1,164 997
Acquisition of existing assets 19 11 - 120 83 19 35 93
Financial investment - - _ 6,300 3/ - - 1,260 3/ 349
Capital Transfers to General
Government 2 4 _ -

Net lending _ - -4 - 760 330 -101

Overall surplus or deficit (-) -1,672 -1,680 -1,469 -9,627 -2,515 -4,322 -5,649 -3,412

Financing 1,672 1680 1469 .27 2.515 4 322 5,649 3.412

External financing (net) 1,033 1,601 1,739 8,517 2,709 2,482 5,537 2,696
Internal financing (net) 639 79 -270 1,110 -194 1,840 112 716

Sources: IMF; Mission estimates.

1/ Includes capitalization of interest on loan from Itaipu.

2/ Includes capitalization of Interest on loan from Yacyreta and Itaipu.
3/ ANDE's participation in the capitalization of Yacyreta Binational.
4/ ANDE's participation in the capitalization of Itaipu Binational.
 -202- Page 1 of 4

Table 5.91 PAPAGUY - OPERATIONSOF PUBLIC ENTERPRISES, 1972-79

(In millions of guaranie*)

Net Current Capital

Transfers Transfers Overall
Current Current from from Capital Surplus Net Net
Current Expen- Account General General Expen- or External Internal
Receipts diture Surplus Government Governuent diture Deficit Financing Borsowina Borroviag

1972

Paraguayan International Airlines (LAP) 247 254 -7 -- 74 5 62 -62 -61 -I

National Airlines (LATN) 37 31 6 __ __ 10 -4 4 -- - 4
Military Transport (TAM) 122 112 10 -- __ _ 10 -10 -- -10
National Airport Administration (ANAC) 33 20 13 _- __ 17 -4 4 -- 4
Merchant Fleet (FLOMERES) 246 327 -81 -- 136 6 49 -49 -30 -19
Port Administration (ANNP) 241 199 42 -- __ 16 26 -26 -12 -14
Railways (FCAL) 112 153 -41 52 18 -I 30 -30 -5 -25
National Cement Industry (INC) 317 238 79 -- -- 118 -39 39 -- 39
Telecommunications (ANTELCO) 654 457 197 -_ __ 508 -311 311 241 70
Electric Power (ANDE) 1,257 705 552 -2 __ 1,284 -734 734 835 -101
Water Sanitation (CORPOSANA) 408 289 119 -- -- 481 -362 362 64 298
Alcohol Monopoly (APAL) 571 557 14 -- __ 81 -67 67 __ 67
National Meat Corporation (COPACAR) -- __ -- 17 __ __ 17 -17 __ -17

Total 4,245 3,342 903 67 228 2,525 -1327 1327 1,032 295

1973

Paraguayan International Airlines (LAP) 388 386 2 -- 74 26 50 -50 -- -50

National Airlines (LATN) 43 36 7 -- -- -- 7 -7 --- 7
Military Transport (TAM) _- -- __ -- -- -- __ __
National Airport Administration (ANAC) 30 21 9 -- -- 4 5 -5 -- 5
Merchant Fleet (FLOMERS) 306 423 -117 -- 138 16 -16 -10
Port Administration (ANNP) 270 222 48 -- __ 22 26 -26 -12 -14
Railways (FCAL) 107 167 -60 52 28 3 17 -17 -15 -2
National Cement Industry (INC) 344 261 83 -- -- 43 40 -40 -- -40
Telecommunications (ANTELCO) 787 552 235 -- __ 731 -496 496 382 114
Electric Power (ANDE) 1,598 774 824 -2 __ 1,681 -859 859 1,129 -270
Water Sanitation (CORPOSANA) 361 299 62 -- 75 432 -295 295 139 156
Alcohol Monopoly (APAL) 874 827 47 -- -- -61 108 -108 -- -108
National Meat Corporation (COPACAR) -- __ -- 14 __ __ 14 -14 _ -14

Total 5,108 3,968 1,140 64 315 2,886 -1,367 1367 1,617 -250
 - 203 -
Page 2 of 4

b. -s 9; ARAGIUAY- OPERATIONSOF PUILIC ENTERPRISES, 1Q72-70

(in millions of gueranies)

Net Currentt Capital

Transfers Transfers Overall
Current Current from from Capi tel Surplus Net Net
Current Ezven- Account General General Emen- or External Inteirnal
Receipts diture Swrlus Government Government diture Deficit Financina borrowing Borrcwing

1974

Paraguayan International Airlines (LAP) 561 711 -150 163 74 -37 124 -124 __ -124
National Airlines (LATN) 43 33 10 -- -- -2 12 -12 -- -1.
National Airport Administration (ANAC) 34 28 6 __ -- 6 -- -- __
Merchant Fleet (FLOMERES) 367 430 -63 136 51 22 -22 -7 -1S
Port Administration (ANNP) 342 234 108 -- -- 12 96 -96 -14 - -82
Railways (FCAL) 151 203 -52 52 36 24 12 -12 -11 -1
National Cement Industry (INC) 644 544 100 -- 410 499 11 -11 -- -11
Teleconmunications (ANTELCO) 1,067 792 275 -- -- 858 -583 583 513 710
Electric Power (ANDE) 1,973 910 1,063 -3 -- 1759 -699 699 1,342 -643
Water Sanitation (CORPOSANA) 417 371 46 -- 72 468 -350 350 413 -63
Alcohol Monopoly (APAL) 898 821 77 -- -- 246 -169 169 -- 169
National Meat Corporation (COPACAR) -- 1 -1 20 -- -- 19 -19 __ -19

Total 6,497 5,078 1,419 232 728 3,884 -1,505 1,505 2.236 -731

1975

Paraguayan International Airlines (LAP) 728 809 -81 150 74 101 42 -42 -- -42
National Airlines (IATN) 42 39 3 -- -- 3 -- -- -
Military Transport (TAM) __ __ __-- -- _- -- __
National Airport Administration (ANAC) 132 85 47 -- -- 39 8 -8 -- .8
Merchant Fleet (FLOMERES) 373 372 1 __ 134 103 32 -32 -8 -:24
Port Administration (ANNP) 421 265 156 -- -- 18 138 -138 -29 -109
Railways (FCAL) 129 232 -103 48 57 15 -13 13 -- 13
National Cent Industry (INC) 932 825 107 -- -- 298 -191 191 -- 191
Telecounications (ANTELCO) 1,602 1,094 508 -- -- 868 -360 360 391 -31
Electric Power (ANDE) 2,495 1,037 1,458 _4 -- 8,796 -7,342 7,342 7,498 -156
Water Sanitation (CORPOSANA) 486 490 -4 _- 219 665 -450 450 382 658
Alcohol Monopoly (APAL) 1,165 1,078 87 __ -- 268 -181 181 -- IB1
National Meat Corporation (COPACAR) - -- -- -- -- -- -_- --

Total 8,505 6,326 2,179 194 484 11,174 -8,317 8,311 8,234 81
 Page 3 of 4

Table 5.9 : PARAGUAY- OPERATIONSOF PUBLIC ENTERPRISES, 1972-79

(in millions of guaranies)

Net Current Capital

Transfers Transfers Overall
Current Current from from Capital Surplus Net Net
Current Expen- Account General General Expen- or ERkovnal Internal
Receipts diture Surplus Government Government ditures Deficit Financing Borrowing Borrowing

1976

Paraguayan InternationalAirlines (LAP) 838 902 -64 143 74 41 112 -112 -30 -82
National Airlines (LATN) 41 36 5 - - -3 8 -8 - -8
National Airport Administration (ANAC) 118 103 15 - 21 -6 6 _ 6
Merchant Fleet (FME) 393 364 29 _ 134 1 162 -162 - -162
Port Administration (ANNP) 388 333 55 - - 32 23 -23 1 -24
Railways (FCAL) 109 208 -99 82 38 18 3 -3 - -3
National Cement Industry (INC) 1,071 946 125 - - 371 -246 246 - 246
Telecommunications (ANTELCO) 2,088 1,256 832 - - 1,593 -761 761 695 66
Electric Power (ANDE) 4,842/1 1,113 3,729 - _ 3,881 -152 152 661 -509 £
Water Sanitation (CORPOSANA) 715 606 109 - 221 435 -105 105 66 39 0
Alcohol Monopoly (APAL) 346 285 61 - - 11 50 -50 - -50 '

National Meat Corporation (COPACAR) - - - 22 - - 22 -22 - -22

SIDEPAR 2 7 -5 4 48 36 11 -11 - -11

Total 10,951 6,159 4,792 251 515 6,437 -879 879 1,393 -514

1977

Paraguayan International Airlines (LAP) 890 986 -96 142 74 137 -17 17 - 17
National Airlines (LATN) 48 44 4 - - -1 5 -5 - -5
National Airport Administration (ANAC) 148 126 22 - - 14 8 -8 - -8
Merchant Fleet (FME) 509 561 48 - 134 10 172 -172 - -172
Port Administration (ANNP) 531 397 134 - - 104 30 -30 8 -38
Railways (FCAL) 143 263 -120 57 87 13 11 -11 - -11
National Cement Industry (INC) 1,673 1,531 142 - - 18 124 -124 - -124
Telecommunications (ANTELCO) 2,482 1,856 626 - - 3,315 -2,689 2,689 2,425 264
Electric Power (ANDE) 3,858 2,092 1,766 - - 2,698 -932 932 1,169 -237
Water Sanitation (CORPOSANA) 833 636 197 - 384 1,016 -435 435 424 11
Alcohol Monopoly (APAL) 1,572 1,444 128 - - 164 -36 36 - 36
National Meat Corporation (COPACAR) - - - 6 - - 6 -6 - -6
- 8 -8 8 - _ - - - -
SIDEPAR

Total 12,687 9,844 2,843 213 679 7,488 -3,753 3,753 4,026 -273

/1 Includes capital receipts.

Sources: Ministry of Finance and Technical Planning Secretariat.

 4
Page of 4

Table 5.9 : PARAGUAY - OPERATIONS OF PUBLIC ENTERPRISES, 1972-79

(in millions of guaranies)

Net Current Capital

Transfers Transfers Overall
Current Current from from Capital Surplus Net Net
Current Expen- Account General General Expen- or External Internal
Receipts diture Surplus Government Government ditures Deficit Financing Borrowing Borrowing

1978

Paraguayan InternationalAirlines (LAP) 1,117 1,317 -140 142 74 1,455 -1,379 1,379 1,386 -7
National Airlines (LATN) 54 53 1 - - 4 -3 3 - 3
National Airport Administration(ANAC) 199 155 44 -4 - 10 30 -30 - -30
Merchant Fleet (FME) 500 535 -35 - 134 36 63 -63 - -63
Port Administration (ANNP) 715 520 195 - - 312 -117 117 85 32
Railways (FCAL) 157 296 -139 17 123 -20 21 -21 - -21
National Cement Industry (INC) 2,052 2,019 33 - - 284 -251 251 - 251
Telecommunications(ANTELCO) 3,130 2,618 512 - - 3,777 -3,265 3,265 2,236 1,029
Electric Power (ANDE) 6,036 4,152 1,884 - - 4,078 -2,194 2,194 1,731 463 1
Water Sanitation (CORPOSANA) 962 925 37 - 529 1,155 -589 589 593 -4 K
Alcohol Monopoly (APAL) 1,685 1,591 94 - - 248 -154 154 - 154 0
National Meat Corporation(COPACAR) - - - - - - - - -
SIDEPAR - 9 -9 9 - - - - - -

TOTAL 16,667 14,190 2,477 164 860 11,339 -7,838 7,838 6,031 1,807

1979

Paraguayan International Airlines (LAP) 4,458 4,652 -194 204 74 405 -321 321 - 321
National Airlines (LATN) 70 69 1 - - 14 -13 13 - 13
National Airport Administration (ANAC) 232 216 16 - - 26 -10 10 - 10
Merchant Fleet (FME) 596 646 -50 - 134 38 46 -46 - -46
Port Administration (ANNP) 822 621 201 - - 228 -27 27 -22 49
Railways (FCAL) 233 390 -157 57 221 -41 162 -162 - -162
National Cement Industry (INC) 2,824 2,596 228 - - 361 -133 133 - 133
Telecommunications(ANTELCO) 4,064 1,270 2,794 - - 1,831 963 -963 5 -968
Electric Power (ANDE) 7,852 3,568 4,014 - - 3,157 857 -857 250 -1,107
Water Sanitation(CORPOSANA) 1,020 1,012 8 - 636 1,676 -1,032 1,032 477 555
Alcohol Monopoly (APAL) 2,088 1,982 106 - - 222 -116 116 - 116
National Meat Corporation (COPACAR) - - - - - - - - - -
SIDEPAR - 9 -9 102 - 93 - - - _

TOTAL 23,989 17,031 6,958 363 1,065 8,010 376 -376 710 -1,086

Source: STP, Mission Estimates.

Note: Due to differences in definition and format, this table does not balance with table 5.9.
 - 206 -

Table 5.10: PARAGUAY: SUMMARY OF PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS 1972-1979

(In millions of guaranies)

Prel.
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

I. Central Government

Current revenue 9,370 11,440 16,266 17,919 19,244 26,379 34,341 43,662
Current expenditure 9,053 10,033 13,056 14,493 16,413 18,877 22,840 28,930
Of which: transfers to social security
institutions 28 25 29 30 35 64 64 65
transfers to decentralized agencies 402 421 493 643 662 839 1,125 1,431
transfers to municipalities - - 3 182 86 66 - 60
transfers to public enterprises 74 71 240 210 257 213 208 363
Current acco,untsurplus 317 1,407 3,210 3,426 2,831 7,502 11,501 14,732
Capital receipts 24 17 - 4 11 42 322 1,333
Capital expenditure 1,989 1,838 2,648 4,502 6,679 6,899 11,596 11,842
Of which: transfers to decentralized agencies 62 71 4 11 18 8 25 -
transfers to municipalities - - - - - - 57 -
transfers to public enterprises 228 315 728 484 515 680 857 1,064
Net lending - - - - -3 -2 -3 682
Overall surplus or deficit (-) -1,633 -390 562 -1,072 -3,834 647 230 3,541
Financing 1,633 390 -562 1,072 3,834 -647 -230 -3,541
External financing (net) 763 302 756 1,373 3,339 2,507 1,736 2,529
Internal financing (net) 870 88 -1,318 -301 495 -3,154 -1,966 -6,070

II. Social Security Institutions

Current revenue 1,322 1,490 1,851 2,986 3,285 4,118 5,176 6,474
Of which: transfers from Central Government 28 25 29 30 35 64 64 65
Current expenditure 986 1,055 1,333 1,474 1,930 2,151 2,692 4,079
Current account surplus 336 435 518 1,512 1,355 1,967 2,484 2,395
Capital receipts 2 4 10 - - 3 40 50
Capital expenditure 261 244 279 341 420 458 590 1,226
Net lending - - 58 95 100 76 85 147
Overall surplus or deficit (-) 77 195 191 1,076 835 1,436 1,849 1,072
Financing -77 -195 -191 -1,076 -835 -1,436 -1,849 -1,072
External financing (net) - - - - - _ _ -
Internal financing (net) -77 -195 -191 -1,076 -835 -1,436 -1,849 -1,072

III. Decentralized Agencies

Current revenue 762 816 877 908 1,070 1,164 1,639 1,996
Of which: transfers from Central Government 402 421 493 643 662 839 1,125 1,431
transfers from municipalities - - - - 13 - 10 12
Current expenditure 732 656 652 755 883 1,038 1,344 1,696
Current account surplus 30 160 225 153 187 126 295 300
Capital receipts 73 74 16 19 18 12 73 5
Of which: transfers from Central Government 62 71 4 11 18 8 25 -
Capital expenditures 169 185 173 34 197 224 192 379
Net lending - - - 258 88 373 - 67
Overall surplus or deficit (-) -66 49 68 -120 -80 -459 176 -141
Financing 66 -49 -68 120 80 459 -176 141
External financing (net) 34 41 76 88 113 76 -34 -50
Internal financing (net) 32 -90 -144 32 -33 383 -142 191

IV. Municipalities

Current revenue 553 595 601 846 1,050 1,348 1,541 1,993
Of which: transfers from Central Government - - 3 182 86 66 - 60
Current expenditure 380 399 453 545 836 1,077 1,151 1,300
Of which: transfers to Central Government - - - - - - 10 -
transfers to decentralized agencies - - - - 13 - 10 12
Current account surplus 173 196 148 301 214 271 390 693
Capital receipts - - 57 32 161 8 168 176
Of which: transfers from Centa, Government - - - - - - 57 -
Capital expenditure 121 257 281 389 575 516 825 948
Of which: transfers to public enterprises - - - - - - 2 1
Net lending - - - -32 -65 -19 -64 -75
Overall surplus or deficit (-) 52 -61 -76 -24 -135 -218 -203 -4
Financing -52 61 76 24 135 218 203 4
External financing (net) -25 25 - - - 27 -5 -5
Internal financing (net) -27 36 76 24 135 191 208 9

Source: IMP, Mission Estimates

 - 207 -

Table 5.10: PARAGUAY: SUMMARY OF PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS

(In millions of guaranies)

Page 2
Prel.
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

V. General Government

Current revenue 11,574 13,895 19,070 21,804 23,853 32,040 41,488 52,557
Of which: transZers from public enterprises 7 7 8 16 6 - - -
Current expenditure 10,718 11,697 14,969 16,412 19,266 22,174 26,818 34,437
Of which: transfers to public enterprises 74 71 240 210 257 213 208 363
Current account surplus 856 2,198 4,101 5,392 4,587 9,866 14,670 18,120
Capital receipts 50 44 75 40 172 57 521 1,564
Capital transfers from public enterprises 2 4 - - - - - -
Capital expenditure 2,478 2,453 3,373 5,251 7,853 8,089 13,121 14,395
Of which: transfers to public enterprises 228 315 728 484 515 680 859 1,065
Net lending - - 58 321 120 428 18 821
Overall surplus or deficit (-) -1,570 -207 745 -140 -3,214 1,406 2,052 4,468
Financing 1,570 207 -745 140 3,214 -1,406 -2,052 -4,468
External financing (net) 772 368 832 1,461 3,452 2,610 1,697 2,474
Internal financing (net) 798 -161 -1,577 -1,321 -238 -4,016 -3,749 -6,942

VI. Public Enterprises

Current account surplus or deficit before transfers 818 1,094 1,458 1,779 3,156 3,034 4,062 5,776
Net transfers from General Government 67 64 232 194 251 213 208 36:3
Current account surplus or deficit 885 1,158 1,690 1,973 3,407 3,247 4,270 6,139
Capital receipts 228 315 728 522 515 680 1,172 1,147
Of which: transfers from General Government 228 315 728 484 515 680 859 1,065
Capital expenditure 2,785 3,153 3,887 12,216/1 6,437 7,489 10,761/1 10,799
Net lending - - - -4 - 760 330 -101
Overall surplus or deficit (-) -1,672 -1,680 -1,469 -9,627 -2,515 -4,322 -5,649 -3,412
Financing 1,672 1,680 1,469 9,627 2,515 4,322 5,649 3,412
External financing (net) 1,033 1,601 1,739 8,517 2,709 2,482 5,537 2,696
Internal financing (net) 639 79 -270 1,110 -194 1,840 112 716

VII. Total Public Sector

Current account surplus or deficit 1,741 3,356 5,791 7,365 7,994 13,113 18,940 24,259
Capital receipts 50 44 73 74 172 57 834 1,646
Capital expenditure 5,033 5,287 6,530 16,889 13,775 14,898 23,023 24,129
Net lending - - 58 317 120 1,188 322 720
Overall surplus or deficit (-) -3,242 -1,887 -724 -9,767 -5,729 -2,916 -3,597 1,056
Financing 3,242 1,887 724 9,767 5,729 2,916 3,597 -1,056
External financing (net) 1,805 1,969 2,571 9,978 6,161 5,092 7,234 5,170
Internal financing (net) 1,437 -82 -1,847 -211 -432 -2,176 -3,637 -6,226

Sources: IMF, Missions Estimates.

/1 Includes capitalization of Itaipu Binational Entity in 1975 and of Yacyreta Binational Entity in 1978.
 - 208 -

Table 5.11: PARAGUAY - FIXED PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENTS,1972-79

(in millions of guaranies)

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Central administration 1,477 1,393 1,735 3,781 5,885 5,713 8,941 9,638

Decentralizedagencies 217 234 225 331 589 633 703 1,425

Public enterprises 2,766 3,138 3,887 5,706 6,354 7,470 9,466 10,357

Municipalities 113 231 274 368 571 474 817 907

Total 4,573 4,996 6,121 10,186 13,399 14,290 19,927 22,327

(In percentages)

Centraladministration 32.3 28.1 28.3 37.1 43.9 40.0 44.9 43.2

Decentralizedagencies- 4.7 0.5 3.7 3.3 4.4 4.4 3.5 6.4

Public enterprises 60.5 43.1 63.5 56.0 47.4 52.3 47.5 46.4

Municipalities 2.5 4.7 4.5 3.6 4.3 3.3 4.1 4.0

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

/1 Includessocial security institutions.

Source: Table 5.1

 - 209 -

Table 6.1: PARAGUAY - SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE CENTRAI.BANK, 1974-1980

(in millions of guaranies)

December 31

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

A. Net international reserves 10,490 13,986 18,854 32,7%4 55,322 74,870 93,878
1. Assets 10,991 14,510 19,844 33,780 56,601 77,296 96,575
2. Liabilities -501 -524 -990 -990 -1,279 -2,426 2,697

B. Net domestic assets 9,146 9,485 9,228 3,889 -6,244 -12,683 -13,204
1. Net claims on public sector 3,872 3,836 3,150 -232 -6,025 -14,292 -12,622
a) Net Central Government (budget) 1,303 855 511 -2,496 -7,966 -14,802 -17,250
Assets 3,190 2,979 2,694 2,891 4,241 4,353 4,007
Liabilities -1,887 -2,124 -2,183 -5,387 -12,207 -19,155 -21,257
b) Net Central Government (other 563 834 386 92 -- 11 183
Assets 563 834 386 92 -- 11 183
Liabilities -- -- -- -- -- -- --
c) Rest of public sector 2,006 2,147 2,253 2,172 1,941 499 4,445
Assets 2,183 2,359 2,364 2,323 2,454 2,224 6,667
Liabilities -177 -212 -111 -151 -513 -1,725 2,222
2. Official capital and surplus -249 -663 -1,092 -1,578 -2,358 -3,629 --
7,873
3. Credit to commercial banks 838 645 534 757 2,363 3,798 6,966
4. Credit to Natilnal Development Bank 2,781 3,257 4,031 3,697 3,093 3,370 3,027
5. Credit to rest of financial system 335 378 140 -306 -375 -62 132
6. Credit to private sector 520 481 606 643 645 835 722
7. Nonmonetary international organizations -1,039 -691 -181 -425 -1,101 -1,798 --2,273
8. Net unclassified assets 2,088 2,242 2,040 1,333 -2,486 -905 --1,283

C. Counterpart unrequited foreign exchange 970 836 865 1,143 287 1,569 1,875

D. Medium- and long-term foreign liabilities 111 108 103 73 271 355 344

E. Liabilities to commercial banks 9,053 10,895 13,983 18,180 23,890 27,877 j5,368

F. Liabilities to National Development Bank 1,509 2,056 2,257 3,546 4,267 4,861 5,552

G. Liabilities to private sector 7,993 9,576 10,874 13,737 19,363 27,525 57.535
1. Currency in circulation 7,553 8,901 10,187 13,108 18,349 23,922 31,176
2. Other liabilities 440 675 687 629 1,014 3,603 6,359

Source: .IMF.
 - 210 -

Table 6.2: PARAGUAY- SUMMARY

ACCOUNTSOF THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENTBANK, 1974-1980
(in millions of guiaranies)

December 31 _ _ _

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

A. Net international reserves -542 -717 -128 247 -61 60 -34

1. Assets 22 21 17 259 53 149 118
2. Liabilities -564 -738 -145 -12 -114 -89 -152

B. Monetary r_eseves_and currencyjholdings 1,357 2,068 2,302 3,690 52_9 4.868 5,382

C. Net domestic assets _q 4 10,584 11,346 11,233 2,137 14,798 14,785

1. Net claims on public sector -415 -664 -1,034 -1,864 -1,410 116 - -912
a) Net Central Government (budget) -224 -218 -186 -299 -300 -457 -370
Assets __ __ __ __ __ __ __
Liabilities -224 -218 -186 -299 -300 -457 -370
b) Net Central Government (other) 671 803 656 1,614 1,542 1,469 279
Assets 928 1,198 958 1,621 1,545 1,471 1,396
Liabilities -257 -395 -302 -7 -3 -2 -1,117
c) Rest of public sector -1,086 -1,467 -1,504 -3,179 -2,652 -896 -821
Assets 66 27 92 64 165 352 678
Liabilities -1,152 -1,494 -1,596 -3,243 -2,817 -1,248 -1,499
2. Official capital and surplus -3,125 -3,231 -4,011 -4,701 -6,059 -6,901 -7,726
3. Credit to private sector 12,479 13,667 15,855 17,319 19,174 21,199 23,409
4. Net unclassified assets 469 812 536 479 432 384 __

D. Medium- and long-term foreign liabilities 6,092 6,853 6,784 7,892 8j358 J39_5 9_137
E. Liabilities to monetary authorities 2,683 3,118 431 3,685 3,992 3,350 3,025
F. Liabilities t9pi4yat sector 1,964 2,705 3,S93 4,915 ,1 971
1. Demand deposits 872 962 1,282 1,591 2,213 2,794 3,445
2. Time and savings deposits 676 771 1,170 1,308 1,867 2,557 2,931
3. Import deposits 12 163 197 613 777 1,512 1,446
4. Other liabilities 88 68 56 81 58 118 149

Source: IMF.
 - II1 -

Table b.3: PARAGUAY - SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE COMMERCIAL BANKS, 1974-1980

(in millionb of guaranies)

December 31

----------
_ _ _ _ __ _ 1974 1975 1976 1977 19/8 1979 1980

A. Net international reserves 153 646 1,499 902 -56 1,504 2,960
1. Assets 1,496 1,550 2,060 2,130 2,099 4,298 6,648
2. Liahilities --
1,343 -904 -561 -1,228 -2,155 -2,794 -3,668

B. Mlonetary reserves and umrrency_ oddings 9,115 11,088 14,206 _8,210 24,025 28 167 35,732

C. Net domestic assets 14,310 16,220 19,270 24,323 34,932 47,297 67,628
1. Rest of public sector -- -237 -323 -1,359 -1,539 -2,563 -2,009
a) Assets -- 279 462 548 963 834 1,015
b) Liabilities -- -516 -785 -1,907 -2,502 -3,397 3,024
2. Credit to private sector 13,307 16,292 19,588 26,259 38,425 51,084 73,363
(Of which: foreign currency credit) (2,569) (4,537) (5,537) (9,765) (18,769)
3. Credit to rest of financial system (net) -- -1,t31 4,514 -2,458 -2,792 -1,480 -2,926
s, Net unclassified assets 1,032 1,286 1,617 1,925 898 335 -724
;. Float -29 -90 -98 -44 -60 -79 -76

1I. L abilities t monetsry_authorities 837 637 535 754 25 25

2 7O8 6,145

4
Liabilities to 1 rLvate sector 22741 27,317 3 X40 42681 56666 73260 99,595
1. Demai deposits 6,169 7,299 9,225 12,021 16,621 18,828 23,381
lime
l. and savings deposits 11,612 14,178 18,074 21,769 27,695 35,742 52,725
3. Import deposits 1,338 1,215 1,668 2,370 3,060 3,457 3,118
.Other liabilities 53 81 209 23 143 245 :371
Capital and surplus 3,569 4,544 5,261 6,498 9,147 14,988 20,000

Source: I"F.
 - 212 -

Table 6.4: PARAGUAY - SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM, 1974-1980

(in millions of guaranies)

December 31

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

A. Net international reserves 10,101 13.915 20,225 33,939 55,205 76.434 96,824
1. Assets . 12,509 16,081 21,921 36,169 58,753 81,743 103,341
2. Liabilities -2,408 -2,166 -1,696 -2,230 -3,548 -5,309 -6,517

B. Net domestic assets 29,454 32,739 35,546 35,180 35,655 42,651 59,634
1. Net claims on public sector 3,457 2,935 1,793 -3,455 -8,974 -16,739 15,543
a) Net Government (budget) 1,303 855 325 -2,795 -8,266 -15,259 17,620
Assets 3.190 2,979 2,694 2,891 4,241 4,353 4,007
Liabilities -1,887 -2,124 -2,369 -5,686 -12,507 -19,612 -21,627
b) Net Central Government (other) 1,234 1,637 1,042 1,706 1,542 1,480 462
Assets 1,491 2,032 1,344 1,713 1,545 1,482 1,579
Liabilities -257 -395 -302 -7 -3 -2 -1,117
c) Rest of public sector 920 443 426 -2,366 -2,250 -2,960 1,615
Assets 2,249 2,665 2,918 2,935 3,582 3,410 8,360
Liabilities -1,329 -2,222 -2,492 -5,301 -5,832 -6,370 6,745
2. Official capital and surplus -3,374 -3,894 -5,103 -6,279 -8,417 -10,530 15,599
3. Credit to private sector 26,306 30,440 36,049 44,221 58,244 73,118 97,494
4. Credit to rest of financial system (net) 245 -694 -1,374 -2,764 -3,167 -1,542 -2,794
5. Nonmonetary international organizations -1,039 -691 -181 -425 -1,101 -1,798 -2,273
6. Net unclassified assets 3,678 4,353 4,193 3,737 -1,156 -186 -1,972
7. Net interbank float 181 290 169 145 226 328 377

C. Counterpart unrequited foreign exchange 970 836 865 1,143 1,287 1,569 1,875

D. Medium- and long-term foreign liabilities 6,203 6,961 6,887 7,965 8,629 9,750 9,481

E. Liabilities to private sector 32,382 38,857 48,019 60,011 80,944 107,766 145,102

1. Money (M1 ) 14,594 17,162 20,694 26,720 37,183 45,544 58,002

a. Currency in circulation 7,553 8,901 10,187 13,108 18,349 23,922 31,176
b. Demand deposits 7,041 8,261 10,507 13,612 18,834 21,622 26,826

2. Quasi-money (M2 )/- 14,219 17,151 22,061 2b,793 34,614 47,234 67,100
a. Time and savings deposits 12,288 14,949 19,244 23,077 29,562 38,299 55,656
b. Import deposits 1,350 1,378 1,865 2,983 3,837 4,969 4,564
c. Other liabilities 581 824 952 733 1,215 3,966 6,880
d. Capital and surplus 3,569 4,544 5,264 6,498 9,147 14,988 20,000

F. Velocity
1. Velocity of circulation (GDP/M1 ) 11.5 11.1 10.3 9.9 8.7 9.5 10.6
2. Velocity of circulation (GDP/M2 ) 11.8 11.1 9.7 9.8 9.3 9.1 12.3

/1 Excludes capital and surplus.

Source: IMF.
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 Table 7.1: PARAGUAY - STRUCTURE OF ANNUAL CROP PRODUCTION, 1972-79

(Percent)

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Garlic 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Cotton 6.4 10.1 11.0 9.1 12.5 23.2 25.9 16.4
Rice 4.1 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.5 1.3 2.0 2.9
Peas 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Sweet potatoes 4.7 3.8 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.1 3.5 3.5
Gourds and squash 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4
Onions 2.7 3.8 1.1 3.2 2.0 1.4 1.5 1.1
Lima beans 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 1
Maize 11.1 12.4 11.8 10.9 9.8 8.1 9.1 12.6
Groundnuts 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.4 4
Cassava 22.6 17.7 19.9 21.6 12.6 15.7 14.2 14.0
Melon 2.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.7 2.3
Potatoes 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4
Beans 3.0 5.3 3.6 3.9 2.0 2.3 3.4 3.6
Watermelon 5.4 2.0 2.2 2.9 3.3 2.1 3.5 4.0
Grain sorghum 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Broom sorghum 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Soybeans 8.2 14.2 13.8 13.5 15.4 18.2 13.5 17.0
Tobacco 4.0 6.5 4.1 3.2 5.1 3.0 2.0 2.5
Wheat 1.3 0.9 3.0 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.4 2.1
Vegetables 4.9 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.7 4.5 4.7
Flowers 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Others 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.8
Cassava for forage 11.3 8.8 9.9 10.8 9.8 7.9 7.1 7.0

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Central Bank and mission estimates.

 Table 7.2: PARAGUAY - STRUCtURE OF PERMANENT CROP PRODUCTION, 1972-79

(Percent)

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Avocado 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3

Banana 13.9 10.7 13.6 11.2 11.1 7.7 9.7 13.2
Coffee 6.4 8.0 10.1 12.8 4.6 8.7 14.5 13.4
Sugarcane 18.0 15.7 25.2 18.9 24.2 19.2 19.3 22.1
Plums 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
Cocoa 6.7 4.9 6.9 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.0
Peach 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
Guavas 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 1.0
Persian Limes 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Lemon real 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Lemon 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Mango 0.8 0.5 0.3 1.3 1.7 1.1 1.2 1.4
Papaya 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
Apples 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Mandarin oranges 3.6 4.0 3.2 3.8 4.8 2.8 3.4 3.9
Sweet oranges 12.2 18.8 12.2 18.8 19.2 16.9 18.1 13.0
Sour oranges 5.0 7.0 2.7 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.8
Pear 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Pineapple 4.4 4.0 3.6 5.4 5.4 4.9 4.8 8.3
Grapefruit 1.4 1.9 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.2
Castorseeds 7.9 13.0 5.8 4.0 4.1 5.1 5.5 4.9
Tung 6.3 4.6 7.3 8.2 8.8 19.2 9.0 4.6
Grape 3.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.6 1.6 1.5
Yerba mate 2.7 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.7 5.1 4.8 4.6

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Central Bank and mission estimates.

 Table 7.3: PARAGUAY - PRODUCTION OF ANNUAL CROPS, 1970-79

UNIT 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Garlic 1,000 bunches 190 220 100 180 300 190 200 210 323 330

Cotton ton 37,230 16,690 40,515 84,000 85,000 100,000 105,040 222,500 284,700 230,000

Rice 41,850 39,450 41,423 23,000 35,000 50,000 52,000 36,400 35,672 68,300

Peas 3,490 3,800 3,900 3,960 4,160 4,285 4,390 4,600 4,416 4,500

Sweet potatoes " 134,290 138,300 159,045 167,000 183,700 178,190 187,000 196,500 186,675 188,540

Gourds and squash 1,000 fruits 12,670 13,100 13,520 14,196 14,620 14,180 14,550 15,300 17,595 18,120

Onion ton 18,470 19,400 20,400 22,440 23,560 24,740 26,720 27,520 33,024 25,000

Lima beans " 3,710 4,100 4,220 4,431 4,560 4,790 4,932 5,180 6,475 6,280

Maize 220,000 216,920 227,770 273,330 281,500 337,800 344,220 372,200 368,478 386,900

Groundnuts " 17,000 17,700 21,200 21,200 20,140 20,540 19,900 21,890 21,452 23,500

Cassava for consumption-

(Human and industrial) 832,720 853,500 863,742 876,700 894,235 862,558 867,500 867,175 867,413 858,740

Melon 1,000 fruits 10,700 10,860 11,077 11,360 11,640 11,990 12,590 12,400 14,260 13,830

Potatoes ton 11,610 8,560 7,700 8,470 9,320 9,786 10,680 11,750 9,400 9,120

Beans 29,420 27,300 28,670 30,100 31,600 59,950 33,600 36,960 49,896 51,400

Watermelon 1,000 fruits 31,100 31,600 32,232 33,070 34,720 37,500 39,370 27,400 34,250 35,300

Grain sorghum " 4,800 5,500 5,775 5,925 6,100 6,280 6,590 6,800 8,700 8,960

Broom sorghum 6,900 7,900 8,137 8,348 8,430 8,620 8,860 9,000 9,230 9,570

Soybeans 40,000 74,100 100,000 120,000 190,000 220,000 280,000 350,000 330,000 450,000

Tobacco 18,000 17,400 23,514 25,900 33,000 25,000 40,000 32,000 20,000 25,000

Wheat 35,000 45,500 16,890 13,000 30,000 13,000 25,000 27,450 30,190 65,000

Cassava for forage " 832,720 853,500 863,743 876,700 894,235 862,558 867,500 876,175 867,413 858,740

Source: Department of Economic Studies, Central Bank of Paraguay, Asuncion.

 Table 7.4: PARAGUAY - PRODUCTION OF PERMANENT CROPS, 1970-79

(Total output)

UNIT 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Avocado 1,000 fruits 9,800 10,130 10,454 10,726 10,830 10,610 10,950 10,620 11,360 11,700
Banana 1,000 cachos 14,211 14,813 14,072 14,800 15,540 11,650 13,400 14,740 13,270 13,530
Coffee tons 3,700 4,290 5,490 6,500 8,000 9,600 3,910 6,000 7,200 7,560
Sugarcane " 1,093,500 1,202,850 1,240,000 1,458,000 1,600,000 1,200,000 1,440,000 1,600,000 1,785,600 1,964,160
Plums 1,000 fruits 28,900 29,900 30,800 31,600 31,900 32,220 32,550 31,900 32,860 33,850
Cocoa tons 209,700 249,000 198,553 249,000 275,000 200,000 206,000 236,900 225,055 236,300
Peaches 1,000 fruits 39,200 40,500 41,510 42,589 43,780 45,000 46,350 45,420 46,330 46,800
Guavas " 166,000 167,700 172,730 177,221 180,700 178,890 184,250 189,770 191,670 201,250
Persian limes 65,300 65,950 66,610 67,276 67,950 68,630 72,060 70,620 71,330 72,040
Lemon real " 8,500 8,800 9,240 9,702 10,190 10,700 11,240 .11,010 11,340 11,910
Sour lemon 27,900 28,800 29,730 31,216 32,150 32,790 34,450 33,400 34,440 36,120
Mangoes 144,400 145,800 147,258 148,730 104,110 83,290 71,800 74,390 86,700 95,370
Mamon 8,300 8,400 8,500 8,721 8,980 8,080 8,250 8,420 8,670 9,100
Apples 4,240 4,280 4,320 4,320 4,440 4,560 4,700 4,560 4,510 4,600
Mandarin oranges 309,800 320,210 288,190 291,072 320,180 336,190 437,050 415,200 394,440 406,270
Sweet oranges 1,180,300 1,220,400 1,182,330 1,239,780 1,363,380 1,431,550 1,503,110 1,427,800 1,499,284 1,534,680
Sour oranges tons 111,750 106,000 121,900 146,280 108,250 110,420 121,462 110,000 107,800 104,570
Pears 1,000 fruits 920 930 940 949 970 1,000 1,030 930 910 940
Pineapples 17,400 17,330 17,850 18,743 19,680 15,750 17,325 16,450 16,610 17,110
Grapefruits 73,700 74,740 82,214 90,435 99,480 104,450 109,670 98,700 95,740 100,530
Castorseeds tons 17,814 18,000 20,700 24,800 26,000 23,400 22,230 24,500 30,625 31,910
Tung " 88,638 132,957 139,600 69,800 125,640 120,000 131,200 137,700 96,390 106,030
Grape 12,000 12,400 12,800 12,160 13,380 14,050 14,410 14,120 15,530 16,300
Yerba mate 19,530 15,760 18,400 16,560 18,550 19,850 20,370 22,400 24,640 25,870
Alfalfa 25,380 25,000 25,625 26,906 27,710 28,541 29,110 29,980 29,380 26,670
Small fruits ' 436 450 460 483 507 520 550 540 594 565

Source: Department of Economic Studies, Central Bank of Paraguay.

 Table 7.5: PARAGUAY - INDEX OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, 1972-79

(1977 = 100)

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Total 66.3 71.2 80.5 82.3 86.2 100.0 104.9 110.0

Export Crops 35.1 48.5 59.0 62.1 68.5 100.0 110.4 113.9
Tobacco 73.5 80.9 103.1 78.1 125.0 100.0 62.5 78.1
Cotton 18.2 37.8 38.2 44.9 47.2 100.0 128.0 103.4
Soybeans 28.6 34.3 54.3 62.9 80.0 100.0 94.3 128.6
Coffee 90.0 108.3 133.3 160.0 65.2 100.0 120.0 126.0 1
Sugarcane 77.5 91.1 100.0 75.0 90.0 100.0 111.6 122.8

Domestic Crops 87.6 86.7 95.1 96.1 98.2 100.0 101.1 107.4
Cassava 98.6 100.1 102.1 98.4 99.0 100.0 99.0 73.5
Corn 61.2 73.4 75.6 90.8 92.5 100.0 99.0 103.9
Oranges 82.3 86.8 93.2 97.7 105.5 100.0 101.9 104.0
Watermelons 117.6 120.7 126.7 136.9 143.7 100.0 125.0 128.8
Sweet Potatoes 80.9 85.0 93.5 90.7 95.2 100.0 95.0 95.9
Castor seeds 84.5 101.2 106.1 95.5 90.7 100.0 125.0 130.2
Bananas 95.5 100.4 105.4 79.0 90.9 100.0 90.0 91.8
Rice 113.8 63.2 96.2 137.4 142.9 100.0 98.0 187.6
Green Peas 84.8 86.1 90.4 93.2 95.4 100.0 96.0 97.8
Onions 74.1 81.5 85.6 89.9 97.1 100.0 120.0 90.8
Vegetables 67.7 72.4 82.2 84.6 92.9 100.0 108.2 125.4
Wheat 61.5 47.4 109.3 47.4 91.1 100.0 110.0 236.8
Other 91.9 84.3 95.2 97.5 95.1 100.0 99.5 116.0

Source: Central Bank.

 - 219 -

Table 7.6: PARAGUAY- CROP PRODUCTION OF EXPORT CROPS BY AREA HARVESTED BY DEPARTMENT. 1970-79

(in '000 hectares)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

I. Cotton 46.9 33.2 57.2 81.1 93.2 100.0 109.9 200.2 284.9 312.5
1. Eastern region 43.4 30.8 53.1 77.5 89.4 96.1 105.6 194.0 276.6 303.4
Central 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 3.7 7.7 8.
Cordillera 4.9 3.4 3.8 9.4 10.7 11.5 12.1 20.1 23.6 25.9
Paraguari 7.9 6.2 12.2 16.7 21.3 21.5 23.0 41.4 53.0 58.:L
Caaguazu 6.3 4.5 8.7 13.2 15,0 16.9 18.6 33.9 66.8 73.'
Guaira 2.5 1.3 2.4 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.9 8.0 11.7 12.8
Caazapa 2.6 1.9 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.4 4.7 9.2 11.0 12.2
Concepcion 2.3 2.7 3.8 5.0 5.7 6.2 6.9 12.2 13.6 14.7
San Pedro 4.8 3.3 4.7 5.6 6.8 6.4 7.2 18.6 28.8 31.6
Agambay - 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.3
Alto Parana 1.6 1.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 6.0 7.1 7.8
Itapua 5.7 2.9 5.6 8.4 10.4 11.1 12.6 18.9 22.0 24.:L
Misiones 2.0 0.9 1.8 4.7 5.2 5.6 6.1 11.1 14.7 16.3
Neembucu 2.2 2.2 4.5 3.7 3.0 3.7 4.2 7.6 12.3 13.4
Canendiyu - - - - - 0.2 0.2 2.4 4.0 4.4
2. Chaco region 3.5 2.4 4.1 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.3 6.2 8.3 9.1L

II. Soybeans 39.5 54.6 75.8 81.4 127.3 150.2 173.4 228.8 272.2 360.3
1. Eastern region 39.5 54.6 75.8 81.4 127.3 150.2 173.4 228.8 272.2 360.3
Central * 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1
Cordillera 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.5 2.2 1.6 2.2
Paraguari 1.5 2.5 3.3 3.4 4.3 4.6 5.2 4.4 5.1 6.8
Caaguazu 1.6 1.8 2.6 2.2 3.8 3.9 4.4 6.4 12.3 16.2
Guaira 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.2 3.5 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.9 5.0
Caazapa 1.2 1.3 2.0 1.7 3.2 2.5 2.7 3.4 3.2 4.3
Concepcion 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.8 2.4
San Pedro 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 5.4 6.1 6.9 7.6 12.2 16.2
A7nambay 2.6 3.5 5.9 5.8 6.8 7.6 8.6 10.6 16.9 22.4
Alto Parana 2.8 6.0 4.2 5.4 13.0 13.5 21.5 38.4 50.7 67.0
Itapua 26.0 31.1 44.9 48.6 70.4 85.5 97.3 124.9 131.1 173.8
Misiones 1.0 4.7 8.0 8.9 14.6 18.6 15.3 13.1 6.3 8.0
Neembucu 0.1 0.2 0.1 * 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.3 2.6 3.6
Canendiyu - - - .- - 2.0 4.8 11.7 24.5 32.4
2. Chaco region - - * - * - - - _-

III. Tobacco 13.6 16.1 17.5 20.4 24.2 20.6 27.8 29.8 21.5 20.'5
1. Eastern region 13.6 16.1 17.5 20.4 24.2 20.6 27.8 29.8 21.5 20.5j
Central 0.1 * * 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Cordillera 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.8 2.1 2.0
Paraguari 1.6 2.1 1.1 2.0 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.'
Caaguazu 3.7 4.6 6.0 6.0 7.9 6.8 9.0 9.6 7.0 6.7
Guaira 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6
Caazapa 1.1 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.5 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.5
Concepcion 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 O.5
San Pedro 2.8 4.0 3.7 4.6 4.9 4.1 5.6 6.0 4.4 4.2
Amambay - - * - 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Alto Parana 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.8 2.6 3.5 3.4 2.2 2.L
Itapua 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4
Misiones 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Neembuco 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Canendiyu - - - - - - 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3
2. Chaco region - - - - *- -

IV. Sugarcane 40.5 39.7 28.7 28.0 28.8 30.4 31.1 33.3 34.9 34.9
1. Eastern region 37.8 37.0 26.7 26.6 27.2 28.5 29.2 31.2 32.5 32.4
Central 7.1 7.3 4.2 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3
Cordillera 2.2 2.1 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.7 3.6 3.9 3.8
Paraguari 10.4 9.8 5.3 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.3 6.3
Caaguazu 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
Guaira 12.7 12.2 11.1 11.5 11.5 13.2 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.0
Caazapa 1.4 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2
Concepcion 0.4 0.2 0.1 * 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
San Pedro 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Amaambay 0.2 0.2 *- - - - - -
Alto Parana 0.1 * * * * * * 0.1 0.1 0.1
Itapua 0.1 0.8 * 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Misiones 0.3 0.1 * * 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Neembuco 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Canendiyu - - - - - - - - - -
2. Chaco region 2.7 2.8 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.4

* Less than 0.1 '000 hectares.

Source: Encuesta Agropecuaria por Muestreo, Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock.

 - 220 -

Table 7.7: PALAA - CROP PUDCTION 0 DOMICCTRC

CUOPS by AA R8IIS7.D BY DEPARTMT. 1971-79L

(L. 000 h.tero)

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

K1odi-oo 94.5 93.3 79.5 90.1 96.5 106.5 113.5 120.3 126.4

1. PAeter reiou 94.0 92.9 78.9 89.3 95.7 105.6 113.1 119.8 125.9

C.etoel 11.3 8.8 5.8 5.7 6.0 6.6 6.9 7.0 7.4
Cordijera 10.9 9.1 7.0 8.6 9.0 9.9 10.1 10.0 11.5
P.r.. ri 11.1 12.8 11.9 13.6 13.8 15.3 15.8 16.1 16.9
Co.gf 12.1 11.9 12.0 11.5 12.4 13.7 14.3 16.2 17.0
Cuit. 8.4 9.4 7.5 8.7 8.8 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.5
C Ap. 7.7 5.9 4.8 5.3 5.5 6.1 5.9 6.8 7.1
Co.oepcion 6.4 4.1 4.7 5.2 6.2 6.9 7.5 7.9 8.3
Sm Pedro 4.7 9.3 7.1 7.2 7.9 9.7 9.8 10.5 1O.5
~_o6y
A2to PeroO
1.4
3.7
1.6
5.3
0.8
3.5
1.0
5.1
1.1
6.0
1.2
6.6
2.2
7.6
2.8
7.8
3.0
8.2
7t pus 10 9 10.13 .5 11 4 11 6 12.8 13.2 14.1 14.8
llior. 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.9 4.0 4.2
Uin_b,ooo 3.2 3.0 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.9
C.esdiyu - - - - 1.3 1.4 2.4 Z.5 2.6

2. Cbnco ntion 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.5

11 Beee 46.2 47.0 43.4 55.0 63.4 66.8 86.2 81.4 79.1

1. Fa.tero reion 45.9 46.6 42.8 54.3 62.6 66.0 84.9 80.3 78.1

Ceetrel 4.0 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.5
Cordillero 3.8 4.6 3.6 3.9 4.5 4.7 5.1 4.9 4.6
P regoeri 8.9 8.1 7.2 8.8 10.0 10.5 11.0 10.0 9.7
C=.-- uo 3.9 4.5 4.7 6.6 7.4 7.8 9.5 9.0 8.7
Cu iro 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.5 4.8 4.4 4.2
Cesepo 2.4 3.2 3.3 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.1 4.0
Cotespiojo 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.6 3.0 3.2 5.9 5.0 5.4
s.n Pedro 3.0 3.0 2.8 4.1 4.5 4.8 6.5 6.3 6.2
A-b.y 1.0 0.4 0.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 5.5 5.3 5.5
Alto Par. 1.4 2.0 1.4 3.8 4.5 4.7 6.9 7.6 6.7
Itep.. 3.0 4.1 5.2 5.7 5.7 6.0 6.3 5.8 5.8
:lieione "2.8 2.3 2.2 2.5 3.0 3 3. 3.3 3.2 3.2
Ce_buco 6. 6.8 4.4 4.5 5.6 5.9 6.2 5.6 5.3
Cesdiyo - - - - I.3 1.4 6.0 6.1 6.3

2. Chaco reeloi 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 3 1.3 1.0

III Cor. 190.1 184.4 185.6 206.1 222.6 257.3 282.1 275.9 552.7

1. Ee.tr.- r-osi 189.5 183.9 185.0 205.4 221.8 256.4 281.0 274.7 350.8

Ceetrel 8.6 6.7 8.2 8.0 8.6 9.7 8.8 7.5 7.8
Cordiller. 15.9 15.6 14.2 16.1 17.2 19.9 20.2 19.5 21.2
Poro8ori 30.7 29.6 30.1 31.2 33.7 38.0 38.7 37.4 41.2
Ce 9 .- 20.2 19.3 21.5 25.4 26.1 31.0 35.5 34.0 40.3
Gelt. 14.6 12.8 13.5 14.5 14.3 16.4 17.0 16.4 22.4
C_ op. 10.6 9.4 10.4 11.9 12.5 14.4 15.1 14.6 17.3
Cooc.poo.- 7.9 8.3 9.5 9.8 10.3 11.8 12.9 12.5 16.0
S.n Ped.o 11.7 17.1 14.2 16.0 17.1 19.6 22.3 23.0 31.3
Amby 6.7 3.5 5.7 6.8 7.9 8.8 10.1 10.9 15.7
Mro Perot. 10.1 7.6 9.0 13.3 13.8 15.9 21.9 21.2 32.5
Itopa 31.1 31.3 30.6 31.7 35.0 40.0 41.8 40.4 50.9
m4i.0... 10.3 9.9 9.2 10.2 11.0 12.7 12.9 12.5 18.4
Ne=Ibu u 11.1 11.8 9.9 10.5 11.4 12 12.7 12.3 15.2
C--diys - - - 2.9 5.8 11.1 12.6 20.5

2. Ch.. r-io 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.9

IV Wh. 3.5 32.1 20.3 30.3 25.2 24.2 28.5 31.5 52.3

1. E9t!-r r "ion 51.4 31.9 20.3 30.3 25.2 24.2 28.5 31.5 52.3

Ceotr'l 0.2 0.1 0.1 0. 0.1 0.1 0.1 - -

Cordill r. 2.6 1.5 1.5 2.2 1.7 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.7
Pe... Sri 5.0 4.3 2.0 2.9 2.5 2.0 0.7 0.7 1.4
Ca" 2.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 2.7 2.1 3.2
Cu ire 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5
CazeP. 0.3 - * * * * _ _
Cos.pon 1.0 0.2 - -
Sm Pedro 7.5 8.9 3.2 4.7 4.6 4.6 8.3 7.3 8.3
Imboy 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.8 2.3
Alto P-ro.n 0.1 0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 8.7 1.4
Itep.. 12.6 9.6 7.2 11.0 8.4 9.0 10.4 12.5 23.2
lliejoec 17.5 6.7 4.5 6.8 5 5 5.1 2.8 3.2 6.5

Cordisy- - - 0.2 0.3 1.3 3.4 4.8

2. Ch..o ttift 0.1 0.2

v RI. 21.6 21.5 20.5 22.9 24.6 28.1 33.6 31. 30.1

1. eate. rnio2o 21.9 21 21.5 22.9 24.6 28.1 33.6 31.5 30.1

CtrtAl 0.1 0.1 0 - _

Cordillero 4.4 4.1 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.9
Pr.agwri 1.4 2.8 2. 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.6 2.7 2.8
Ceer.. 0.3 0.4 1.2 1 6 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1
Cu iro 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0 4 0.4 0.4
Ce.pe 1.0 0 9 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5
Com optio. 0.4 o .2 02 0.1 0. 10 0.1 0.1
S n Pdro 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8
A.bey 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 3.3 4.7 5.4 2.5
Alto Per.. 3.9 0.3 1.6 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.7
Itlpo. 3.4 4.5 5.6 5.9 7.1 6.8 7.0 7.6 7.9
Klio.i-. 4.0 4.8 6.9 7.1 7.5 7.2 6.8 7.7 9.1
1[_hb- I - - -
Ceteodiy. - - - 1.7 3.8 6.5 4.7 3.4

2. Ch.oo regio

Li Crop. for dotic o..ptio- only.

1Aee then 0.1

L '000 hettr...

0000.1 Isnoe to Agropeg ria po- N e.treo - Mioitry of AgtricltrI nd Livootock.

 - 221 -

Table 7.8: PARAGUAY- CROP PRODUCTIOH OF SELECTED CROPS BY AREA HARVESTED BY

DEPARTMENT, 1978-79 (In '000 Hectares)

Corn Mandioca Beans Sugarcane Cotton Wheat Soybeans Rice-/ Peanuts Tobacco

Eastern Region 350.8 125.9 78.1 32.4 303.4 52.3 360.3 30.1 18.5 20.5
Central 7.8 7.4 2.5 4.3 8.4 - - - 0.4 0.1
Cordillera 21.2 11.5 4.6 3.8 25.9 0.7 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.0
Paraguari 41.2 16.9 9.7 6.3 58.1 1.4 6.8 2.8 3.1 1.5
Caaguazu 40.3 17.0 8.7 0.7 73.4 3.2 16.2 1.1 2.7 6.7
Guaira 22.4 10.5 4.2 14.0 12.8 0.5 5.0 0.4 0.8 0.6
Caazapa 17.3 7.1 4.0 2.2 12.2 - 4.3 0.5 1.5 1.5
Subtotal 150.2 60.4 33.7 30.6 190.8 5.8 34.5 6.7 10.7 12.4

Concepcion 16.0 8.3 5.4 0.1 14.7 - 2.4 0.1 0.8 0.5
San Pedro 31.3 10.5 6.2 0.2 31.6 8.3 16.2 0.8 1.4 4.2
Subtotal 47.3 18.8 11.6 0.3 46.3 8.3 18.6 0.9 2.2 4.7

Amambay 15.7 3.0 5.5 - 0.3 2.3 22.4 2.5 0.7 0.2
Alto Parana 32.5 8.2 6.7 0.1 7.8 1.4 67.0 0.7 0.6 2.1
Subtotal 48.2 11.2 12.2 0.1 8.1 3.7 89.4 3.2 1.3 2.3

Itapua 50.9 14.8 5.8 0.1 24.1 23.2 173.8 7.9 1.8 0.4

Misiones 18.4 4.2 3.2 0.1 16.3 6.5 8.0 8.1 0.3 0.2
Neembucu 15.2 3.9 5.3 0.5 13.4 - 3.6 - 1.6 0.2
Subtotal 33.6 8.1 8.5 0.6 29.7 6.5 11.6 8.1 1.9 0.4

Canendiyu 20.5 2.6 6.1 - 4.4 4.8 32.4 3.4 0.6 0.3

Chaco Region 1.0 0.5 1.0 2.4 9.1 - - - 5.4 -

Total 352.7 126.4 79.1 34.8 312.5 52.3 360.3 30.1 23.9 20.5

/1 Upland (secanc) and lowland (L/riego) rice.

Source: Encuesta Agropecuaria por Muestro - Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock.

 - 222 -

Table 7.9: PARAGUAY - AVERAGE YIELD FOR TEN MAJOR CROPS BY DEPARTMENT, 1978-79

(Kilos per hectare)

Corn Mandioca Beans Sugarcane-/ Cotton Wheat Soybeans Rice/ Peanuts Tobacco

Eastern Region 1,564 14,973 732 40.69 751 1,114 1.524 2,155 857 1,265

Central 989 2,163 576 19.71 698 - - - 937 616

Cordillera 1,273 10,154 577 9.83 698 985 1,250 1,506 820 1,119
Paraguari 1,335 12,652 693 35.07 703 921 1,374 1,778 309 1,150
Caaguazu 1,527 21,429 755 46.28 815 1,077 1,459 3,335 807 1,175
Guaira 1,385 14,392 709 46.79 697 1,026 1,649 2,955 761 1,458
Caazapa 1,392 14,098 603 49.59 712 - 1,279 1,519 703 1,259
Concepcion 1,399 20,864 725 - 766 - 1,145 2,297 879 1,005
Pan Pedro 1,695 17,669 770 - 765 1,174 1,595 2,317 1,054 1,458
Amambay 1,758 31,750 794 11.41 782 1,141 1,571 - 1,421 1,031
Alto Parana 2,176 15,418 864 - 752 1,109 1,436 - 1,039 1,429
Itapua 1,720 14,409 713 5.33 828 1,101 1,553 2,643 859 1,682
Misiones 1,391 8,416 742 15.46 691 1,143 1,787 1,813 859 1,207
Neembucu 1,113 3,238 670 - 736 - 1,222 - 615 758
Canendiyu 1,868 31,323 875 - 693 1,130 1,578 - 1,171 1,297

Chaco Region 927 5,659 637 33.27 748 - - - 1,403 -

Total 1,561 14,935 731 39.97 751 1,114 1,524 2.155 978 1,265

Source: Encuesta Agropecuaria por Muestreo - Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock.

/1 For sugar only; tons per hectare.

/2 Irrigated only.
 - 223 -

Table 7.10: PARAGUAY - COMMODITY PRICES FOR TEN MAJOR CROPS BY

DEPARTMENT, 1978-79
(Average price per kilo in guaranies)

Corn Mandioca Beans Sugarcane-- Cotton Wheat Soybean Rice/ Peanuts Tobacco

Eastern Region 14.13 8.56 41.08 1,988 41.68 24.59 30.13 21.63 29.58 70.23

Central 11.30 13.40 32.88 2,001 39.30 - - - 27.01 72.06

Cordillera 11.57 10.46 33.04 1,973 43.86 24.59 31.61 22.76 26.72 72.55
Paraguari 12.39 7.83 42.48 1,947 44.65 23.51 25.43 23.56 36.58 67.28
Caaguazu 14.67 7.83 35.27 1,963 36.96 24.84 28.93 18.08 35.93 66.23
Guaira 15.38 8.10 42.35 1,995 42.81 24.39 29.23 18.95 31.72 67.56
Caazapa 15.15 10.62 39.39 1,987 38.17 - 27.00 21.28 27.47 71.92
Concepcion 11.50 9.26 39.14 - 43.48 - 25.94 20.22 30.65 70.79
San Pedro 14.10 9.14 38.03 - 43.02 24.71 28.38 18.58 31.91 72.27
Amambay 13.66 12.86 56.44 - 41.52 25.50 36.73 - 31.52 73.25
Alto Parana 15.69 10.52 46.47 - 36.79 24.71 29.71 - 35.25 71.78
Itapua 15.30 9.54 33.17 - 40.97 25.01 30.82 21.57 30.65 74.44
Misiones 15.65 9.46 41.37 1,947 42.23 24.37 27.99 23.49 34.18 72.48
Neembucu 16.97 16.30 44.04 - 43.94 - 25.22 - 26.43 66.37
Canendiyu 16.00 12.02 50.84 - 36.79 25.00 33.08 - 34.86 72.13

Chaco Region 19.50 18.16 52.16 1,949 46.24 - - - 38.40 -

Total 14.15 8.57 41.20 1,985 41.81 24.59 30.13 21.63 32.43 70.23

Source: Encuesta Agropecuaria por Muestreo - Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock.

/1 For sugar only; guaranies/ton.

/2 Irrigated only.
 - 224 -

Table 7.11: PARAGUAY - LIVESTOCK POPULATION, 1970-79

(1,000 heads)

Age and Sex Categories 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

A. Total cattle population 4.340.1 4,458.9 4,548.2 4,756.0 4,844.7 5,043.3 5,567.7 5,799.9 5,809.5 5,203.3
1. Cows 3 years old and over 1,708.7 1,776.0 1,776.9 1,860.5 1,895.5 1,971.6 2,175.8 2,267.9 2,269.1 2,029.6
2. Heifers 1 to 3 years old 836.4 881.5 889.1 917.7 935.7 974.4 1,075.9 1,122.4 1,124.3 1,009.4
3. Calves under 1 year old 690.0 677.2 664.7 757.9 771.2 803.5 887.4 922.3 925.6 827.3
4. Young bulls and steers 1 year old
and over 786.3 802.9 887.8 863.7 880.6 917.0 1,012.5 1,058.9 1,057.0 952.5
5. Breeding bulls, mixed breeds and
criollos 125.5 124.4 121.8 133.4 135.7 140.8 155.3 161.4 161.3 145.7
6. Breeding bulls, 3/4 blood & over 25.5 26.5 30.2 35.9 36.8 38.0 41.7 44.2 43.7 43.8
7. Oxen and herd leaders 167.7 170.2 177.7 186.9 189.2 198.0 219.9 222.8 228.5 195.0

B. Hogs 588.6 578.8 617.5 725.7 841.1 974.8 1,102.0 1,173.6 1,201.4 1,272.7
1. Less than 6 months 287.2 304.4 312.1 380.3 447.8 519.0 509.2 514.4 526.8 570.2
2. More than 6 months for farm work 195.6 170.7 196.4 207.3 247.0 286.2 401.1 459.7 470.8 521.8
3. More than 6 months for breeding 105.8 103.7 109.0 138.1 146.3 169.6 191.7 199.5 203.8 180.7

C. Equine 325.7 315.9 331.0 325.7 325.2 324.7 325.4 325.8 327.5 328.8

D. Ovine 324.6 333.4 340.6 335.7 354.3 366.3 370.4 374.1 403.2 423.0

E. Goats 58.9 74.4 86.6 100.0 104.8 107.8 108.3 113.2 120.3 125.6

F. Domestic fowl 6,628.2 6,688.2 6,881.5 8,672.1 9,121.9 9,524.4 9,863.6 10,664.7 11,894.4 13,022.9
1. Hens 2,698.5 2,508.3 2,871.6 3,985.3 4,137.3 4,319.6 4,478.5 4,430.2 4,954.4 5,462.9
2. Pullets 1,211.7 967.2 1,027.1 1,124.2 1,271.2 1,326.8 927.1 1,745.6 1,589.6 1,960.7
3. Chicken 356.5 658.1 696.6 718.4 856.6 894.2 1,374.4 1,430.1 1,943.2 2,242.3
4. Cocks and chicks 1,943.5 2,146.9 1,843.9 2,380.0 2,368.8 2,473.2 2,566.7 2,535.3 2,863.6 2,805.2
5. Ducks 216.2 217.9 221.0 226.7 243.4 259.9 265.4 271.0 286.8 303.3
6. Turkeys 30.6 28.5 36.4 39.0 40.6 42.8 42.3 42.0 43.0 42.5
7. Geese 21.9 20.4 28.9 37.2 40.2 42.1 41.6 42.4 43.7 43.0
8. Guineas 149.3 140.9 156.0 161.3 163.8 165.8 167.6 168.1 170.1 163.0

Source: Encuesta Agropecuaria por Muestro - Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock.

 - 225 -

Table 7.12: PARAGUAY - DISTRIBUTION OF CATTLE POPULATION BY SEX,

AGE AND REGION, 1979
(1,000 heads)

Total Total % of Total F: of Growth

Age and Sex Categories Cattle Cattle Total Cattle Total Rate
in % of in Chaco in Chaco in Eastern in Eastern 1975-79
Paraguay Total Region Region Region Region (M)

Cows, 3 years old and over 2,029.6 39.0 848.1 16.3 1,181.5 22.7 0.7

Heifers 1 to 3 years old 1,009.4 19.4 450.6 8.6 558.8 10.8 0.9

Calves under 1 year old 827.3 15.9 321.3 6.2 506.0 9.7 0.7

Young bulls and steers

1 year old and over 952.5 18.3 492.5 9.5 460.0 8.8 0.9

Breeding bulls, mixed breeds

and criollos 145.7 2.8 55.2 1.1 90.5 1.7 '3.9

Breeding bulls, 3/4 blood

or more 43.8 0.8 19.0 0.4 24.8 0.5 3.6

Oxen and herd leaders 195.0 3.8 22.0 0.4 173.0 3.3 -0.4

Total 5,203.3 100.0 2,208.7 42.5 2,994.6 57.5 0.8

Source: Encuesta Agropecuaria por Muestreo - Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock.

 - 226 -

Table 7.13: PARAGUAY - SLAUGHTER OF CATTLE AND AVERAGE PRICES, 1972-79

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Total Slaughter
In Thousand Head 686.9 571.0 577.9 498.3 537.3 635.3 596.2 377.8
Thousand Metric Tons, Live Weight 250.9 217.7 217.5 190.2 194.5 234.9 220.1 139.5
Average Weight Per Head, in
Kilograms 365.2 381.2 376.3 381.7 362.1 369.8 369.2 369.2
Average Price, in Guaranies
Per Kilogram, Live Weight 37.90 51.70 56.10 41.04 42.90 45.50 55.02 81.60

Slaughter for Domestic Consumption

In Thousand Head 391.2 326.0 389.4 381.6 428.9 489.0 459.6 344.7
Thousand Metric Tons, Live Weight 141.0 120.3 146.5 147.8 156.6 181.3 169.7 127.3
Average Weight Per Head, in
Kilograms 360.0 369.0 376.5 387.2 365.2 370.8 369.2 369.2
Average Price, in Guaranies
Per Kilogram, Live Weight 38.40 50.30 55.83 42.21 44.36 47.76 56.50 81.60

Slaughter for Export

In Thousand Head 295.2 245.0 188.5 116.7 109.0 146.3 136.6 33.0
Thousand MletricTons, Live Weight 109.8 97.4 71.0 42.4 37.9 53.6 50.4 12.2
Average Weight Per Head, in
Kilograms 372.1 397.5 376.5 363.2 350.0 366.3 369.2 369.2
Average Price, in Guaranies
Per Kilogram, Live Weight 37.40 53.40 56.70 36.96 36.84 37.79 50.05 81.60

Source: Central Bank of Paraguay.

 - 227 -

Table 7.14: PARAGUAY- INDEX OF LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION,1972-79

(1977 = 100)

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Total 83.5 87.1 92.3 96.3 100.1 100.0 111.0 115.7

Hoofed Animals 92.5 86.7 88.7 82.1 82.6 100.0 98.3 100.7
Beef 101.3 89.5 100.0 78.5 84.6 100.0 91.6 836.6
Pork 75.2 79.0 83.3 88.7 94.9 100.0 109.5 125.1
Other/l 119.4 142.4 114.8 83.2 109.9 100.0 120.4 1:29.8

Poultry 75.1 77.9 81.1 87.6 93.2 100.0 108.8 122.4

Other 69.6 72.5 83.1 88.8 94.1 100.0 109.7 122.2

Milk 67.3 70.1 80.5 88.6 93.9 100.0 109.5 119.1
Eggs 71.7 74.6 85.7 89.2 94.3 100.0 110.0 1:26.0
Other/2 77.1 79.9 83.5 85.7 92.7 100.0 107.2 110.9

Source: Central Bank of Paraguay.

/1 Includes equine, sheep, goats.

/2 Includeswool, honey, bristle.

 Table 8.1: PARAGUAY- VAWE ADDED IP INDISTRY, 1970-79

(in jillions of 8. rAnie)

1970 1971 1972 1931974. 1975 1976 1977 j9?s 1979

Value 7. Value 7 Value S. Value Value ValValue Value
7' 1 Value 2 Value 2

Food 5,636 45.1 6,593 48.0 6,953 44.3 8.005 40.0 11.953 39.4 10,276 34.5 114778 34.4 14,510 32.3 16.301 30.0 19A.63 27.5
Bever.ges 787 6.3 768 5.6 811 5.2 1,033 5.2 1,510 5.0 1,724 5.8 2.040 6.0 2,753 5.7 3.855 1.1 40.775 6.9
Tobacco 487 3.9 494 3.6 599 3.8 607 3.0 893 3.0 956 3.2 1.069 3.1 1,142 2.5 1.212 2.2 949 1.4
Textiles 807 6.5 787 5.,7 970 6.2 1,430 7.1 1.915 6.3 1,894 6.4 2,298 6.7 5,482 12.2 7.117 13.1 5,958 8.6
Footwear and clothi.g 423 3.4 443 3.2 536 3.4 595 3.0 801 2.6 922 3.1 1.248 3.6 1,393 3.1 1.563 2.9 2.533 3.6
Wood products 502 4.0 589 4.3 986 6.3 1,305 6.5 2.165 7.1 3.276 11.0 2,64. 7.7 3,480 7.7 5.13 9.4 9.3080 13.5
F.raiture 106 0.8 115 0.8 141 0.9 182 0.9 242 0.8 280 0.9 352 1.0 392 0.9 4214 0.8 749 1.1
Paper and cardboard 15 0.1 16 0.1 17 0.1 19 0.1 35 0.1 34 0.1 35 0.1 39 0.1 43 0.1 55 0.1
Printing and p.blishiog 215 1.7 290 2.1 284 1.8 358 1.8 487 1.6 565 1.9 672 2.0 945 2.1 1.019 1.9 2.324 3.3
Leather 575 4.6 589 4.3 893 5.7 1,303 6.5 1,746 5.8 1,220 4.1 1,4.0 4.3 1,639 3.6 1.763 3.2 2.203 3.2
Rubber S - S - 5 - 6 - 7 - 7 - 11 - 13 - 15 - 23 -
Chemical products 594 4.8 483 3.5 588 3.7 900 4.5 928 3.1 1,015 3.4 1,410 4.1 1,463 3.3 1.645 3.0 1.S20 2.6
Petroleum products 620 5.0 730 5.3 900 5.7 1,240 6.2 3,204 10.6 3,262 11.0 3.633 10.6 4.899 10.9 5S293 9.7 5.450 12.1
Non-metallic sinerals 443 3.5 437 3.2 514 3.3 559 2.8 886 2.9 15227 4.1 1,490 4.4 1,889 4.2 2.045 3.8 2.336 3.3
Basic metls 18 0.1 26 0.2 29 0.2 31 0.2 40 0.1 47 0.2 65 0.2 43 0.1 52 0.1 90 0.1
Metal products 296 2.4 351 2.6 353 2.3 589 2.9 720 2.4 710 2.4 684 2.0 980 2.2 1.159 2.1 1.157 1.7
Machinery 33 0.3 34 0.3 35 0.2 41 0.2 53 0.2 58 0,2 70 0.2 78 0.2 76 0.1 319 0.2
Elctrical appliances 5 - 5 - 5 - 6 - 9 - 9 _ 10 - 12 - 18 21 -
Transport quip-et 136 1.2 105 0.8 109 0.7 138 0.7 122 0.4 232 0.8 3623 0.9 375 0.8 406 0.7 53 0.8 5
Othrrr105 0.8 1II 0.9 151 0.0 207 1.0 375 1.2 362 1.2 394 1.2 451 1.0 498 1.0 813 1.2

Sub-total 11.806 94.5 12,978 94.5 14,879 94.8 18.549 92.6 28,091 92.6 28074 94.3 31,686 92.6 419987 93.4 499614 91.2 63.463 4391.2
Arter...nla 690 5.5 753 5.5 814 5.2 1,484 7.4 2,247 7.4 1.681 5.7 2.535 7.4 2,987 6.6 4.805 8.8 616 8.84
Total 12.498 100.0 13,731 100.0 15,693 100.0 20,033 100.0 30.328 100.0 29.739 100.0 34.221 100.0 44,974 100.0 54,419 100.0 690609 100.0

S- rrr: Centr.l B.nk.

 Table 8.2: PARAGUAY - PERCENTAGE CONTRIBUTION OF AGROINDUSTRIES TO VALUE ADDED IN INDUSTRY,

1962, 1970, 1973-79

Sectors 1962 1970 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

Agroindustry/l 72.5 70.4 68.3 66.5 65.0 62.2 64.0 65.0 61.1

Rest of industry 27.5 29.6 31.7 33.5 35.0 37.8 36.0 35.0 38.9

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Table 8.1.

/1 For purposes of comparison there has been included under agroindustries the following sectors: Foods,
beverages, tobacco, textiles, wood and leather.
 Table 8.3: PARAGUAY - VALUE ADDED IN INDUSTRY, 1972-77

(in millions of 1977 guaranies)

Average Annual
1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 Growth Rates (%)
________________________ 1972-79/1 1978-79

Food 12,884 12,374 13,494 12,454 13,014 14,510 14,046 14,185 1.9 1.0
Beverages 1,266 1,514 1,734 1,872 2,010 2,753 3,762 4,276 18.9 13.7
Tobacco 994 948 1,154 1,199 1,131 1,142 850 848 -2.1 -0.2
Textiles 2,412 2,851 3,125 3,070 3,125 5,482 6,601 5,521 14.9 -16.4
Footwear and clothing 1,191 1,244 1,267 1,295 1,360 1,393 1,466 1,654 4.2 12.8
Wood products 1,879 2,297 2,854 3,167 2,784 3,480 4,188 7,069 16.4 68.8
Furniture 317 333 349 356 384 392 410 426 4.3 3.9
Paper and paper products 29 29 39 37 37 39 39 40 4.5 2.6
Printing 709 709 756 888 784 945 989 1,749 10.7 76.9
Leather 1,377 1,393 1,623 1,524 1,590 1,639 1,565 1,207 -0.3 -22.9
Rubber 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 16 9.4 14.3
Chemical products 1,085 1,221 1,060 1,284 1,603 1,463 1,493 1,503 5.5 0.7
Petroleum products 3,234 3,821 3,380 3,429 3,674 4,899 5,940 6,127 9.8 3.1
Non-metallic minerals 907 945 1,134 1,398 1,606 1,889 1,729 1,693 11.4 -2.1 k

Basic metals 33 43 44 45 48 43 33 70 4.8 112.1 o

Metal products 735 803 833 803 725 980 851 897 2.5 5.4
Machinery 66 68 70 72 76 78 86 91 4.6 5.8
Electrical appliances 9 10 10 11 11 12 14 17 8.3 21.4
Transport equipment 191 214 218 270 353 375 423 447 14.3 5.7
Others 187 275 411 369 435 460 505 863 18.5 70.9

Sub-total 29,514 31,101 33,564 33,553 34,762 41,987 45,007 48,485 7.4 7.7
Artesenia 1,553 2,569 2,599 1,942 2,698 2,987 4,368 4,692 14.2 7.4

Total 31,067 33,670 36,163 35,495 37,460 44,974 49,375 53,177 7.9 7.7

Source: Central Bank.

/1 least square growth rate

 Table 8.4: PARAGUAY - GROSS VALUE OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, 1970-79

(in millions of 1977 guaranies)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

All Industries 68,475 68,598 74,277 79,093 85,330 85,071 88,795 110,458 118,357 127,325

Light consumer goods 51,281 51,077 53,596 54,970 58,979 56,823 59,103 74,014 77,955 77,977
Food 38,461 39,425 40,198 39,100 40,767 37,675 39,292 44,088 42,665 43,083
Beverages 2,713 2,663 2,762 3,270 3,767 4,051 4,273 5,857 8,005 9,099
Tobacco 779 819 1,015 1,078 1,529 1,726 1,645 1,813 1,350 1,347
Textiles 5,437 4,430 5,842 7,517 8,450 8,837 9,000 16,614 20,003 16,730
Footwear and clothing 3,279 2,984 3,039 3,182 3,489 3,491 3,674 4,118 4,336 4,897
Printing and publishing 612 756 740 823 977 1,043 1,219 1,524 1,596 2,821

Intermediate goods 16,930 17,269 20,458 23,767 25,770 27,464 28,690 35,220 39,023 47,795
Lumber and wood 3,826 3,971 5,888 7,109 8,812 9,820 8,712 10,515 12,654 21,356 r
Furniture 538 556 580 614 659 686 738 768 803 836
Paper and cellulose 91 93 93 95 132 122 128 135 135 137
Leather 2,264 2,308 2,353 2,427 2,956 2,816 2,933 3,035 2,899 2,234
Rubber products 15 16 16 17 17 18 23 24 27 29
Chemicals 2,055 2,189 2,202 2,737 2,591 2,803 3,771 4,303 4,390 4,421
Petroleum products 5,954 5,867 6,807 7,870 6,862 6,926 7,746 10,424 12,638 13,034
Non-metallic minerals 1,452 1,625 1,604 1,694 2,024 2,541 2,966 3,634 3,325 3,257
Basic metals 30 39 38 42 62 93 130 147 109 189
Metal products 673 745 805 1,040 1,298 1,292 1,160 1,749 1,519 1,602
Other/l 32 40 72 122 357 347 383 486 524 700

Machinery, appliances and

transport equipment 193 176 158 250 402 555 720 885 997 1,052
Non-electrical appliances 48 51 49 63 86 102 111 126 139 146
Electrical appliances 4 4 4 6 11 14 16 20 23 28
Transport equipment 114 91 79 138 234 350 485 605 683 721
Other/2 27 30 26 43 71 89 108 134 152 157

Others 71 76 65 106 179 229 282 339 382 501

Source: Central Bank.

/1 Includes tiles, plastics, glass (residual).

/2 Includes scientific and medical equipment.

 - 232 -

Table 8.5: PARAGUAY - INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, 1970-79

(1977 = 100)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

All Industries 62.0 62.1 67.2 71.6 77.3 77.0 80.4 100.0 107.2 115.3

Light consumer goods 69.3 69.0 72.4 74.3 79.7 76.8 79.9 100.0 105.3 105.4
Food 87.2 89.4 91.2 88.7 92.5 85.5 89.1 100.0 96.8 97.7
Beverages 46.3 45.5 47.2 55.8 64.3 69.2 73.0 100.0 136.7 155.4
Tobacco 43.0 45.2 56.0 59.5 84.3 95.2 90.7 100.0 74.5 74.3
Textiles 32.7 26.7 35.2 45.2 50.9 53.2 54.2 100.0 120.4 100.7
Footwear and clothing 79.6 72.5 73.8 77.3 84.7 84.8 89.2 100.0 105.3 118.9
Printing and publishing 40.2 49.6 48.6 54.0 64.1 68.4 80.0 100.0 104.7 185.1

Intermediate goods 48.1 49.0 58.1 67.5 73.2 78.0 81.5 100.0 110.8 135.7
Lumber and wood 36.4 36.1 56.0 67.6 83.8 93.4 82.9 100.0 120.3 203.1
Furniture 70.1 72.4 75.5 80.0 85.8 89.3 96.1 100.0 104.6 108.9
Paper and cellulose 67.4 68.9 68.9 70.4 97.8 90.4 94.8 100.0 100.0 101.5
Leather 74.6 76.1 77.5 80.0 97.4 92.8 96.6 100.0 95.5 73.6
Rubber products 62.5 66.7 66.7 70.8 70.8 75.0 95.8 100.0 112.5 120.8
Chemicals 47.8 50.9 51.2 63.6 60.2 65.1 87.6 100.0 102.0 102.7
Petroleum products 57.1 56.3 65.3 75.5 65.8 66.4 74.3 100.0 121.2 125.0
Non-metallic minerals 40.0 44.7 44.1 46.6 55.7 69.9 81.6 100.0 91.5 89.6
Basic metals 20.4 26.5 25.9 28.6 42.2 63.3 88.4 100.0 74.2 128.6
Metal products 38.5 42.6 46.0 59.5 74.2 73.9 66.3 100.0 86.9 92.0
Other/l 6.6 8.2 14.8 25.1 73.5 71.4 78.8 100.0 107.8 144.0

Machinery, appliances and

transport equipment 21.8 19.9 17.9 28.3 45.4 62.7 81.4 100.0 112.7 118.9
Non-electrical appliances 38.1 40.5 38.9 50.0 68.3 81.0 88.1 100.0 110.3 115.9
Electricl appliances 20.0 20.0 20.0 30.0 55.0 70.0 80.0 100.0 115.0 140.0
Transport equipment 18.8 15.0 13.1 22.8 38.7 57.9 80.2 100.0 112.9 119.2
Other/2 20.2 22.4 19.4 32.1 53.0 66.4 80.6 100.0 113.4 117.2

Others 20.9 22.4 19.2 31.3 52.8 67.6 83.2 100.0 112.7 147.8

Source: Central Bank.

/1 Includes tiles, plastics, glass (residual).

/2 Includes scientific and medical equipment.

 Table 8.6: PARAGUAY - INVESTMENTS APPROVED INDER LAW ?16f550 OF INDUSTRIAL PROMOTION, 1972-79

1972 1973
No. of Investments No. of Investments
Projects % (Mins. of ¢s) % Projects % (Mlns. of ¢s) %

Food 28 43.8 805.3 54.6 19 20.9 549.0 32.0

Beverages 1 1.6 3.0 0.2 1 1.1 1.0 0.1
Tobacco 2 3.1 33.4 2.2 2 2.2 7.6 0.4
Textiles - - - - 2 2.2 6.6 0.4
Footwear and clothing 1 1.6 14.4 1.0 - - - - -
Wood products 11 17.2 189.4 12.7 32 15.2 680.5 39.6 w
Furniture - - - - 3 3.3 29.6 1.7
Paper and cardboard - - - - 2 2.2 1.7 0.1
Printing and publishing 2 3.1 8.1 0.5 3 3.3 10.3 0.6
Leather 1 1.6 16.6 1.1 1 i.1 30.0 1.7
Chemical products 4 6.2 59.2 4.0 9 9.9 309.3 18.0
Nonmetallic minerals 5 7.8 172.2 11.4 4 4.4 3; 4 2.1
Metal Products - - - - 2 2.2 13.9 0.8
Transport equipment - - _ - _ _
Other manufacturing - - - - 4 4.4 2.3 0.1
Silos - - - - -
Transport (Freight and passenger) - - - - - - - -
Tourism 4 6.2 104.8 7.0 3 3.3 31.5 1.8
Other 5 7.8 80.9 5.2 4 4.4 8.6 0.5

Total 64 100.0 1,487.3 100.0 91 1(0.0 1,717.3 100.0

 234 - Page 2 of 4

Table 8.6: PARAGUAY - INVESTMENTS APPROVED UNDER LAW 216/550 OF INDUSTRIAL PROMOTION, 1972-79

1974 1975
No. of Investments No. of Investments
Projects % (Mlns. of es) % Projects % (Mlns. of es) %

Food 33 19.0 995.1 11.7 22 18.0 332.0 7.5

Beverages 2 1.1 139.5 1.6 2 1.6 160.8 3.6
Tobacco 2 1.1 20.7 0.2 2 1.6 33.7 0.7
Textiles 6 3.5 521.5 6.1 3 2.5 302.2 6.8
Footwear and Clothing 3 1.7 9.6 0.1 3 2.5 54.2 1.2
Wood Products 75 43.1 4,431.3 52.0 30 24.6 924.1 20.8
Furniture _ - - - - -
Paper and cardboard 3 1.7 149.3 1.8 - - - -
Printing and publishing 2 1.1 16.5 0.2 5 4.1 18.7 0.4
Leather 2 1.1 75.5 0.9 - - - -
Chemical products 12 6.9 157.1 1.8 9 7.4 452.2 10.2
Nonmetallic minerals 10 5.8 231.5 2.7 15 12.3 791.1 17.8
Metal products 1 0.6 - - 1 0.8 0.6 -
Transport equipment 4 2.3 92.2 1.1 2 , 1.6 24.0 0.5
Other manufacturing 1 0.6 3.1 - 8 -5 6.6 532.5 /2 12.0
Silos 2 1.1 92.8 1.1 1 0.8 65.4 1.5
Transport (freight and passenger) 4 2.3 127.7 1.5 4 3.3 116.1 2.6
Tourism 2 1.1 5.4
S7A 2 i.6 439.2 9.8
Others 10 L 5.8 1.403. Li 16.5 13 L.
10.7 203.4 4.6

Total 174 100.0 8,521.8 100.0 122 100.0 4,450.2 100.0

 - 235 -
Page 3 of 4

Table 8.6: PARAGUAY

- INVESTMENTSAPPROVEDUNDERLAW 216/550 OF INDUSTRIAL PROMDTION, 1972-79

1976 1977
No. of Investments No. of Investments
Projects 7 (Milns. of ds) % Projects 7 (Mlns. of 4s) %

Food 22 13.6 431.4 5.0 29 16.5 1,012.5 7.8

Beverages 4 2.5 418.5 4.9 6 3.4 869.6 6.7
Tobacco 7 4.3 90.5 1.0 1 0.6 31.3 0.2
Textils' 2.5 18.6 0.2 2 1 1 380.6 2.9
Cotton gins 3 1.8 255.8 3.0 6 3.4 685.8 5.3
Clothing 5 3.1 12.6 0.2 7 4.0 26.6 0.2
Wood 23 1L.2 683.3 8.0 10 5.7 146.2 1.1
Furniture 4 2.5 59.8 0.7 7 4.0 14.8 0.1
Chemical products 13 8.0 92.9 1.1 14 8.0 770.7 5.9
Plastic products 7 4.3 279.1 3.2 3 1.7 16.3 0.1
Con,atruction materials 10 6.2 336.4 3.9 16 9.1 451.3 3.5
Metal products 8 4.9 832.2 9.7 5 2.8 12241 1.0
Leather 5 3.1 198.2 2.3 3 1 7 51.1 0.4
Printing 4 2.5 105.4 1.2 9 5 1 57.0 0.5
Paper and cardboard 4 2.5 473.0 5.5 5 2.8 5,581.5 42.8
Glass manufacture 1 0.6 650.0 '.6 2 1.2 35.5 0.3
Other manufacturing 7 4.3 102.1 1.2 15 8.5 383.4 2.9
Agro-industries 10 6.2 774.4 9.0 12 6.8 1,006.7 7.7
Engineering firms 7 !.3 1,756.7 20.4 5 2.8 447.4 3.4
Silos 3 1.8 343.3 4.0 4 2.3 146.2 1.1
Hotels 4 2.5 5.6 0.1 2 1.1 142.4 1.1
Banks 1 0.6 379.9 4.4 3 1.7 367.1 2.8
Transport 6 3.7 269.9 3.4 10 5.7 284.1 2.2

Total 162 100.0 8,596.6 100.0 176 13,030.2

 - 236 -

Page 4 of 4

Table 8.6: PARAGUAY - INVESTMENTS APPROVED UNDER LAW 216/550 OF INDUSTRIAL PROMOTION, 1972-79

1978 1979
No. of Investments No. of Investments
Projects % (Milns. of Os X Projects % (Milns. of Os %

Food 35 17.1 2,451.6 16.9 26 8.7 1,007.8 3.2

Beverages 9 4.4 1,106.5 7.6 6 2.0 319.3 1.0
Tobacco 2 1.0 116.5 0.8 4 1.3 160.7 0.5
Textiles 5 2.4 95.9 0.7 4 1.3 120.9 0.4
Cotton gins 9 4.4 1,311.0 9.0 6 2.0 1,068.3 3.4
Clothing 5 2.4 14.6 0.1 16 5.3 166.8 0.5
Wood 18 8.8 324.1 2.2 43 14.3 1,119.0 3.5
Furniture 9 4.4 277.1 1.9 3 1.0 15.6 0.1
Chemical products 17 8.3 1,500.4 10.3 21 7.0 4,924.2 15.6
Plastic products 8 3.9 406.2 2.8 8 2.7 296.1 0.9
Constructionmaterials 12 5.9 322.1 2.2 33 10.9 1,494.4 4.7
Metal products 8 3.9 631.1 4.3 14 4.7 891.6 2.8
Leather 3 1.5 8.1 0.1 6 2.0 437.5 1.4
Printing 12 5.8 254.7 1.8 22 7.3 298.0 0.9
Paper and cardboard 4 1.9 465.3 3.2 5 1.7 343.2 1.1
Other manufacturing 19 9.2 375.7 2.7 23 7.6 288.9 1.0
Agro-industries 11 5.4 2,491.3 17.1 19 6.3 10,229.0 32.3
Engineering firms 4 2.0 425.1 2.9 8 2.6 170.0 0.5
Silos 8 3.9 1,546.8 10.6 18 6.0 6,224.3 19.7
Hotels 1 0.5 1.5 0.0 1 0.3 4.0 0.0
Banks - - - - 3 1.0 496.0 1.6
Transport 6 2.9 408.2 2.8 12 4.0 1,548.9 4.9

Total 205 100.0 14,533.8 100.0 301 100.0 31,624.5 100.0

/1 Includes agriculture and livestock development.

/2 Includes manufacture of electrical materials and agricultural tools.

Note: For years 1976 and 1977, categories are slightly different.

Source: Ministry of Industry and Commerce.

 - 237 -

Table 9.1: PARAGUAY - IMPLICIT DEFLATORS 1965, 1970-79

(1977 = 100)

1965 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 L977 1978 1979

AGRICULTURE 38.6 41.3 47.0 54.1 72.0 82.2 90.1 91.4 100.0 108.6 133.0

Agriculture 35.7 36.5 41.1 43.0 60.4 69.3 77.0 87.8 100.0 100.4 125.5
Livestock 45.1 47.1 57.4 79.4 101.4 113.6 114.6 99.2 100.0 133.4 163.7
Forestry 38.7 55.1 56.5 60.8 74.3 91.8 106.4 93.9 100.0 103.8 112.5
Hunting and Fishing 53.3 56.4 59.4 63.9 72.2 85.7 91.7 95.2 100.0 122.2 128.2

INDUSTRY 43.0 46.9 48.9 51.8 60.9 85.4 87.3 95.0 100.0 110.3 130.1

Mining 63.8 72.8 71.7 73.6 72.4 91.7 93.5 95.3 100.0 100.0 128.2
Manufacturing 41.4 45.5 46.0 50.5 59.5 83.9 83.8 91.4 100.0 110.2 130.9
Construction 55.0 57.4 58.6 59.8 69.4 94.9 105.0 112.2 100.0 111.0 128.1

INFRASTRUCTURE 48.1 51.7 54.2 60.9 66.0 78.2 85.2 91.5 100.0 113.1 132.1

Electricity 52.4 55.8 57.3 59.7 72.2 75.2 82.1 90.7 100.0 110.9 123.0
Water and Sanitation 42.9 52.1 54.8 59.7 67.3 75.2 82.1 90.8 100.0 110.9 123.0
Transport and Communications 47.8 50.8 53.3 61.4 63.9 79.3 86.3 91.9 100.0 114.1 136.7

OTHER SERVICES 49.8 53.1 53.7 56.0 63.7 80.0 84.8 90.0 100.0 111.5 134.9

Commerce 42.0 46.1 48.0 51.3 61.3 77.7 81.4 87.3 1()0.0 111.3 132.7
General Government 43.2 46.0 48.2 52.6 59.4 67.8 71.4 78.6 100.0 114.5 119.6
Ownership of Dwellings 53.7 56.2 55.7 59.9 61.7 85.0 96.7 99.3 100.0 110.6 150.0
Other 90.3 90.1 79.2 70.9 73.6 91.2 98.4 101.5 100.0 110.7 145.0

GDP AT MARKET PRICES 43.8 47.5 50.3 54.7 66.1 81.7 87.2 91.6 100.0 110.4 133.1

NOTE: RATIO AGRICULTURE TO

INDUSTRY DEFLATOR 89.8 88.1 96.1 104.4 118.2 96.3 103.2 96.2 100.0 98.5 102.2

Source: Central Bank

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 - 239 -

Table 9.3: PARAGUAY - CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, 1964-80

(1964 = 100)

General
Food Housing Clothing Others Index

1964 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

1965 104.8 103.9 100.5 103.0 103.8
1966 107.8 105.8 103.0 107.5 106.8
1967 106.0 104.9 103.0 119.6 108.3
1968 106.2 105.6 103.7 121.9 109.0
1969 108.2 108.6 108.6 123.8 111.5
1970 105.9 108.3 110.1 124.2 110.5
1971 115.0 110.0 111.2 126.7 116.0
1972 127.8 112.8 115.1 142.9 126.7
1973 155.5 120.6 121.5 144.1 142.9
1974 194.0 150.8 146.8 185.5 178.9
1975 202.9 164.6 165.9 199.4 190.9
1976 211.5 169.7 175.7 210.3 199.4
1977 235.3 183.2 188.8 224.4 218.1
1978 265.8 194.9 210.8 241.4 241.3
1979 344.1 238.5 259.7 317.0 309.3

1978 Jan. 244.1 189.0 198.1 233.1 226.4

Feb. 252.5 189.9 203.6 236.8 232.1
Mar. 251.1 190.0 203.6 236.8 231.4
Apr. 248.4 190.7 203.6 236.8 230.2
May 251.5 188.5 211.1 242.3 233.2
June 259.4 189.8 211.1 242.3 237.4
July 261.6 190.1 211.1 242.3 238.6
Aug. 264.1 192.0 214.8 244.2 241.0
Sept. 280.7 192.1 214.8 244.2 249.3
Oct. 288.0 194.7 214.8 244.2 253.4
Nov. 291.2 215.1 221.8 246.8 260.2
Dec. 296.4 216.5 221.8 246.8 263.0

1979 Jan. 303.7 214.2 221.8 246.8 266.2

Feb. 320.3 217.0 232.1 288.3 284.6
Mar. 318.4 220.3 232.1 288.3 284.3
Apr. 302.2 220.3 232.1 288.3 276.2
May 302.8 229.6 239.3 298.2 281.0
June 331.3 241.0 263.4 308.1 302.0
July 331.7 246.8 271.6 338.3 310.3
Aug. 361.7 248.8 280.8 344.8 328.0
Sept. 372.1 252.3 280.8 344.8 333.8
Oct. 376.8 256.3 2$4.2 351.1 338.6
Nov. 398.0 255.4 289.3 353.4 350.0
Dec. 410.2 260.0 289.3 353.4 356.9

1980 Jan. 408.4 260.7 289.3 353.4 356.2

Feb. 408.4 264.8 300.5 384.9 364.5
Mar. 409.0 264.6 300.5 384.9 364.8
Apr. 419.0 263.7 300.5 384.9 369.6
May 409.2 299.7 313.6 398.0 375.7
June 409.7 301.7 313.6 422.7 381.3
July 409.6 303.6 323.1 436.0 385.4
Aug. 412.6 308.4 324.5 436.5 388.1
Sept. 413.8 308.7 324.5 436.5 388.7

Note: This index measures the changes in prices of a fixed basket of goods and services
consumed regularly by the working class (obreros) families in Asuncion.

Source: Central Bank

 - 240 -
Table 9.4: PARAGUAY _ MINIMUM WAGES AND WAGE INDEX FOR LABORERS/a,1969-78

Utilities Hotel and

Manu- Construc- and Sani- Commerce Transportation, Domestic General
facturing tion tation Communications Service Index

Weights /b 57.9 44.0 8.1 0.6 27.4 1.6 100.0

1969 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Semester 1 99.7 99.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.8
Semester 2 100.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.1

1970 104.1 100.4 100.0 100.0 102.7 104.( 103.2

Semester 1 103.4 100.4 100.0 100.0 102.7 100.0 102.7
Semester 2 104.9 100.4 100.0 100.0 102.7 109.9 103.7

1971 108.7 109.6 101.4 103.4 104.7 115.2 107.1

Semester 1 108.5 109.6 101.4 101.1 104.7 115.2 107.0
Semester 2 108.9 109.6 101.4 105.7 104.7 115.2 107.2

1972 113.5 109.7 101.3 105.7 109.8 115.8 111.3

Semester 1 113.1 109.7 101.3 105.7 109.8 115.8 111.1
Semester 2 113.9 109.7 101.3 105.7 109.8 115.8 111.5

1973 126.1 128.9 107.6 114.8 113.5 132.0 121.3

Semester 1 119.2 119.8 103.4 107.2 112.0 124.4 116.0
Semester 2 132.9 138.0 111.8 122.5 114.9 139.6 126.6

1974 151.6 162.8 127.6 154.8 126.6 162.5 143.5

Semester 1 151.2 162.8 127.6 147.0 125.6 162.5 142.9
Semester 2 152.0 162.8 127.6 162.7 127.6 162.5 144.1

1975 153.8 163.0 139.3 168.2 146.0 162.7 151.1

Semester 1 153.1 163.0 139.3 168.2 145.2 162.5 150.5
Semester 2 154.6 163.0 139.3 168.2 146.9 162.9 151.8

1976 168.6 186.7 153.9 169.8 161.6 162.5 166.2

Semester 1 166.5 163.0 153.9 168.2 161.4 162.3 163.9
Semester 2 170.b zlu.5 15J.9 171.3 lol.o lbZ.7 loo.o
b77 174.4 .12. 1.9.7 171.3 16U.9 163.6 173.4
Cew,,eqs-er 1 171.n 212.2 1S°.7 171. 16f.Q 1&X.7 173.1
Semester 2 174.8 212.8 169.7 171.3 167.0 164.6 173.7

1978 201.3 238.0 188.2 190.1 190.4 187.5 198.6

Semester 1 200.3 238.0 188.2 189.3 188.8 187.4 197.5
Semester 2 202.4 238.0 188.2 190.9 192.1 187.6 199.7

1979 237.1 271.3 211.0 210.8 244.3 236.0 238.3

Semester 1 225.8 264.8 208.8 199.7 242.1 222.0 230.4
Semester 2 248.4 277.9 213.3 222.0 246.5 250.0 246.2

1980
Semester 1 279.7 317.7 249.5 277.6 285.6 287.1 280.6

A>ril nctnhKr Ma rch hr.arv Julv January

Minimum WaSes, ¢ per day 1964 197l 1973 1974 1978 1979 1980
Fimployees 233.88 259.88 325.00 390.00 448.50 594.0 684.0
Manualworkers 233.88 219.09 277.00 365.00 382.50 505.0 581.0

a/ Laborer is defined as an employeewho is directly involvedin production. Management is excluded.

b/ Based on the value of wages paid in June 1969.

Source: Central Bank of Paraguay

 - 241 -

Table 10.1: MINISTRY OF EDUCATION: STRUCTURE OF EXPENDITURE BY FUNCTIONS

AND PROGRAMMES, 1969 - 1981
('000 Guaranies and %)

1969 1975 1979 1981(Budget

Total Expenditures $1241780. $2709949. $5626617. $9604749.

( 100 t

1. Current Expenditures
1.1. General Administration 2.02% 2.06% 2.00% 1.20%
1.2. Special Grants (reli - 1.38% 0.87% 0.80% 0.63%
gicu3 organizations)
1.3. Education
1.3.1. Primary Education 56.79% 46.82% 41.64% 39.24%
1.3.2. Secondary Education 7.84% 10.40% 13.94% 16.62%
1.3.3. Integral Education 3.92% 3.01% 3.01% 2.95%
(Regional Centers)
1.3.4. Training-Technical &
Professional Education 6.34%. 1.44% 1.44% 5.04%
1.3.5. Literacy & Adult Educa
tion Programmes 0.51% 1.30% 1.96% 1.72%
1.3.6. Tele Education 0.12% 0.12% 0.15%
1.3.7. Transfer to Universities 17.58% 15.52% 16.74% 17.71%
1.3.8. Education Planning 0.28% 0.24% 0.20%
1.3.9. Curriculum Development 0.18% 0.13% 0.11%
1.3.10.Education Materials 0.39% 0.34% 0.31%
1.3.11.Others 2.13% 1.08% 1.79% 4.83%

2. Capital Expenditures
2.1. Construction,Maintenance &
Acquisitions 2.49% 2.25% 2.01% 1.28%
2.2. Acquisition of Office Materials 0.01% 0.01% 0.90%
2.3. Construction & Development of
Secondary Technical Education &
Rural Basic Education 11.69% 11.70% 6.64%
2.4. Construction & Promotion of
Sports 1.47% 0.76% 0.47%

Source: Ministry of Education.

 - 242- Page1

Table 10.2: RURALPRIMARYEDUCATION- ANNUALSTOCK FIGURES FOR PROJECTED STUDENTENROLLMENT

BY DEPART!7S A' C(RAES: 1980-1990

ANNUAL STOCK FIGURES FOR PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT BY DEPARTMENTS AND GRADES : 1980 - 1990.-

(upper row figures shown for each of the Departments indicate the
pattern followed by the average rate of 'desgranamiento' d )

(.124) (.119) (.114) (.109) (.104) (.098) (.093) (.088) (.083) (.078)
DEPARTMENT OF Grades 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

CENTRAL
10 10178. 10402. 10631. 10805. 11104. 11348. 11598. 11853. 12113. 12380. 12652.
20 8142. 8916. 9164. 9419. 9627. 9949. 10236. 10519. 10810. 11108. 11414.
30 7328. 7132. 7855. 8119. 8392. 8626. 8974. 9284. 9593. 9913. 10242.
40 6107. 6419. 6283. 6960. 7234. 7519. 7781. 8139. 8467. 8797. 9140.

50 4885. 5350. 5655. 5567. 6201. 6482. 6782. 7057. 7423. 7764. 8111.
60 4071. 4279. 4713. 5010. 4960. 5556. 5847. 6151. 6436. 6807. 7158.

TOTAL ENROLLMENT ( Z ) 40711. 42498. 44301. 45880. 47518. 49480. 51218. 53003. 54842. 56769. 58717.

(.22) (.215) (.21) (.205) (.20) (195) f.19) (.l85) (.18) (.175) (07)
DEPARTMENT OF Grades 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 19u6 1987 1988 1989 1990
SEEMBUCU
10 1879. 1913. 1947. 1982. 2018. 2054. 2901. 2129. 2167. 2206. 2246.
20 1461. 1475. 1511. 1548. 1586. 1624. 1664. 1704. 1746. 1788. 1831.
30 1252. 1147. 1165. 1201. 1238. 1277. 1315. 1356. 1397. 1440. 1484.
40 1044. 983. 906. 925. 961. 997. 1034. 1072. 1112. 1153. 1195.
50 765. 820. 777. 720. 740. 774. 808. 843. 879. 917. 957.
60 557. 601. 648. 618. 576. 596. 627. 659. 691. 775- 761.

TOTAL ENROLLMENT ( Z ) 6958. 6939. 6954. 6994. 7119. 7322. 7539. 7763. 7992. 8229. 8474.

(.26) .256) (.252) 1.248) (.244) (.240) (.236) (.232) (.228) (.224) (.22)
DEPARTMENT OF Grades 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
AMAMBAY
10 1885. 1981. 2082. 2188. 2300. 2417. 2541. 2670. 2806. 2949. 3100.
20 1314. 1402. 1482. 1566. 1654. 1748. 1847. 1951. 2061. 2177. 2300.
30 971. 978. 1049. 1114. 1184. 1257. 1335. 1418. 1506. 1599. 1698.
40 685. 722. 732. 789. 842. 900. 960. 1025. 1095. 1169. 1247.
50 514. 510. 540. 550. 596. 640. 688. 737. 791. 850. 912.
60 343. 382. 381. 406. 416. 453. 489. 528. 569. 614. 663.

TOTAL ENROLLMENT ( E ) 5712. 5975. 6266. 6613. 6992. 7415. 7860. 8329. 8828. 9358. 9920.
 - 243 -
Page 2

Table 10.2: RURAL PRIMARY EDT'CATTmnY

- ANNUAL STOCK FIGURES FOR PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTBY
DEPARTMFNTS AND GRADES: 1980-1990

(.310) (.306) (.302) (.298) (.294) (.290) (.286) (.282) (.278) t(274) (.270)
DEPARTMENT OF Grades 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
CANENDIYU
1° 2599. 2716. 2838. 2966. 3099. 3239. 3385. 3537. 3696 3862. 4036.
20 1477. 1804. 1896. 1992. 2094. 2200. 2313. 2430. 2554. 2683. 2819.
30 886. 1025. 1259. 1331. 1406. 1487. 1571. 1661. 1754. 1854. 1959.
40 532. 615. 715. 884. 940. 998. 1062. 1128. 1199. 1273. 1353.
50 295. 369. 429. 502. 624. 667. 713. 763. 814. 870. 929.
60 118. 205. 258. 301. 354. 443. 476. 512. 551. 591. 635.
TOTAL ENROLLMENT ( E ) 5907. 6734. 7395. 7976. 8517. 9034. 9520. 10031. 10568. 11133. 11731.

(.200) (.196) (.192) (.188) (.184) (.180) (.176) (.172) (.168) (.164) (.160)
DEPARMENT OF Grades 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
PDTE. HAYES
10 1428. 1449. 1471. 1493. 1516. 1538. 1561. 1585. 1609. 1633. 1657.
2° 1020. 1148. 1171. 1194. 1218. 1243. 1267. 1293. 1319. 1345. 1372.
30 867. 820. 928. 951. 974. 999. 1024. 1049. 1076. 1103. 1130.
40 663. 697. 663. 754. 776. 799. 823. 848. 873. 900. 927.
50 612. 533. 563. 538. 615. 636. 658. 681. 706. 730. 756.
6° 510. 492. 431. 457. 439. 504. 524. 545. 567. 590. 613.

TOTAL ENROLLMENT ( E ) 5100. 5139. 5227. 5387. 5538. 5719. 5857. 6001. 6150. 6301. 6455.

(.22) (.215) (.21) (.205) (.20) (.195) (.19) (.185) (.18) :.175) (.17)
DEPARTMENT OF Grades 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
CONCEPCION
10 5616. 5700. 5786. 5873. 5961. 6050. 6141. 6233. 6326. 6421. 6518.
20 4648. 4409. 4503. 4600. 4698. 4799. 4902. 5005. 5111. 5219. 5329.
30 3486. 3649. 4483. 3580. 3680. 3782. 3887. 3994. 4104. 4217. 4332.
40 2517. 2737. 2883. 3564. 2864. 2962. 3063. 3168. 3275. 3386. 3500.
5° 1937. 1976. 2162. 2292. 2851. 2306. 2399. 2496. 2598. 2702. 2795.
6° 1162. 1521. 1561. 1719. 1834. 2295. 1868. 1955. 2047. 2143. 2243.

TOTAL ENROLLMENT ( E ) 19366. 19992. 21378. 21628. 21888. 22194. 22259. 22851. 23461. 24088. 24717.
 - 244 -
Page 3

Table 10.2: RURAL PRIYARY EDUCATION - ANNUAL STOCK FIGURES FOR PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTBY
DEPARTMENTSAh3DGRADES: 1980-1990

(.23) (.226) (.222) (.218) (.214) (.210) (.206) (.202) (.198) (.194) (.19)
DEPARTMENT OF Grades 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

SAN PEDRO

10 9058 * 9330. 9610. 9898. 10195. 10501. 10816. 11140. 11474. 11819. 12173.

20 7246. 7011. 7259. 7515. 7780. 8054. 8338. 8631. 8934. 9248. 9573.

30 5435. 5608. 5455. 5677. 5907. 6146. 6395. 6654. 6922. 7201. 7491.

40 3623. 4207. 4363. 4266. 4462. 4667. 4880. 5103. 5337. 5579. 5833.

50 3019. 2804. 3273. 3412. 3353. 3525. 3706. 3894. 4093. 4302. 4519.

6° 1812. 2337. 2182. 2559. 2682. 2649. 2799. 2957. 3123. 3299. 3485.

TOTAL ENROLLMENT ( Z ) 30193. 31297. 32142. 33327. 34379. 3542. 36934. 38379. 39883. 41448. 43074.

(.18) (.175) (.17) (.165) (.16) (.155) (.15) ('.145) (.14) (L135) (.13)
DEPARTMENT OF Grades 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

CORDILLERA

10 6256. 6256. 6256. 6256. 6256. 6256. 6256. 6256. 6256. 6256. 6256.

20 5255. 5161. 5192. 5224. 5255. 5286. 5318. 5349. 5380. 5411. 5443.

30 4504. 4335. 4284. 4335. 4388. 4440. 4493. 4547. 4600. 4654. 4708.

40 3503. 3716. 3598. 3b77. 3641. 3708. 3774. 3842. 3910. 3979. 4049.

50 3003. 2890. 3084. 3004. 3005. 3077. 3152. 3227. 3304. 3382. 3462.

60 2502 2477. 2399. 2575. 2523. 2539. 2615. 2695. 2775. 2858. 2942.

TOTAL ENROLLMENT ( Z ) 25023. 24835. 24813. 24972. 25069. 25307. 25608. 25915. 26226. 26540. 27059.

(.23) (1225) (.22) (.215) (.21) (.205) '.20 ) (.195) (.19) (.185) (-.18)
DEPARTMENT OF Grades 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

GUAIRA

10 5204. 5205. 5206. 5207. 5208. 5209. 5210. 5211. 5212. 5214. 5215.

20 3990. 4033. 4060. 4087. 4114. 4140. 4167. 4194. 4221. 4248. 4275.

30 3122. 3092. 3146. 3187. 3229. 3271. 3312. 3354. 3397. 3440. 3483.

40 2255. 2420. 2412. 2470. 2518. 2567. 2617. 2666. 2717. 2769. 2821.

5° 1561. 1748. 1888. 1893. 1951. 2002. 2054. 2107. 2159. 2214. 2271.

60 1214. 1210. 1363. 1482. 1495. 1551. 1602. 1653. 1707. 1760. 1815.

TOTAL ENROLLMENT ( E ) 17346. 17707. 18074. 18326. 18515. 18740. 18961. 19186. 19413. 19644. 19981.
 - 245 - Page 4

Table 10 2: RURAL PRIMARY EDUCATION - ANNU'AL STOCK FIGURES FOR PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT BY
DEPARTMENTS AND GRADES: 1980-1990

(.21) (.206) (.202) (.198) (.194) (.190) (.186) (V182) (.179) (.174) (.17)
DEPARTMENT OF Grades 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
CAAGUAZU
10 12447. 12895. 13359. 13840. 14338. 14855. 15389. 15943. 16517. 17112. 17728.
20 10326. 9883. 10290. 10714. 11155. 11614. 12092. 12588. 13105. 13643. 14203.
30 7744. 8199. 7887. 8253. 8635. 9036. 9454. 9891. 10347. 10825. 11324.
40 5593. 6149. 6543. .6325. 6652. 6994. 7355. 7733. 8130. 8547. 8985.
50 4302. 4441. 4907. 5247. 5098. 5388. 5693. 6016. 6357. 6715. 7094.
6° 3442. 3416. 3544. 3935. 4229. 4129. 4386. 4657. 4945. 5251. 5573.

TOTALENROLLMENT ( E ) 43854. 44982. 46529. 48315. 50107. 52016. 54369. 56829. 59402. 62093. 54097.

(.25) (.246) (.242) (.238) (.234) '.230) (.226) (.222) (.218) (.214) (.210)
DEPARTMENT OF Grades 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
CAAZAPA
10 5055. 5060. 5065. 5070. 5075. 5080. 5085. 5090. 5096. 5101. 5106.
20 4152. 3811. 3835. 3860. 3884. 3908. 3932. 3956. 3980. 4005. 4030.
30 3250. 3131. 2889. 2922. 2957. 2991. 3025. 3059. 3094. 3128. 3164.
40 2347. 2451. 2373. 2201. 2238. 2277. 2315. 2353. 2392. 2432. 2471.
50 1805. 1770. 1858. 1808. 1686. 1723. 1762. 1801. 1840. 1880. 1921.
60 1444. 1361. 1342. 1416. 1385. 1298. 1334. 1371. 1408. 1446. 1485.

TOTAL ENROLLMENT ( E ) 18503. 17583. 17362. 17277. 17225. 17277. 17453. 17631. 17811. 17993. 18177.

(.23) '.225) (.22) (.215) (.21) (.205) (.20) (.195) (.,19) (.185) (.18)
DEPARTMENT OF Grades 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
ITAPUA
10 10614. 10869. 11130. 11397. 11670. 11950. 12237. 12531. 12832. 13139. 13455.
20 8418. 8226. 8478. 8737. 9004. 9278. 9560. 9851. 10150. 10458. 10774.
30 6588. 6524. 6416. 6655. 6902. 7158. 7422. 7696. 7979. 8272. 8576.
40 4758. 5106. 5089. 5037. 5257. 5487. 5726. 5975. 6234. 6503. 6783.
50 3660. 3687. 3983. 3995. 3979. 4179. 4390. 4609. 4840. 5081. 5332.
60 2562. 2837. 2876. 3127. 3156. 3163. 3343. 3534. 3733. 3945. 4166.

TOTAL ENROLLMENT ( E ) 36600. 37248. 37971. 39947. 39969. 41216. 42679. 44196. 45'768. 47398. 49086.
 Page 5
- 246 -

Table 10.2: RURAL PRIMARYEDUCATION- ANNUAL

STOCK FIGURES FOR PROJECTEDSTUDENTENROLLMENT
BY
DEPARTMENTS
AND GRADES: 1980 - 1990

(.22) (.215) (.21) (.205) (.20) (.195) (:19) (.185) (.18) (.t75) (.t7)
DEPARTMENT OF Grades 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

MISIQNES

10 2398. 2412. 2427. 2441. 2456. 2471. 2486. 2501. 2516. 2531. 2546.
20 1954. 1882. 1905. 1929. 1953. 1977. 2002. 2026. 2051. 2076. 2101.
30 1599. 1534. 1487. 1514. 1543. 1572. 1601. 1632. 1661. 1692. 1723.
40 1244. 1255. 1212. 1182. 1211. 1242. 1273. 1305. 1338. 1370. 1404.
50 977. 977. 991. 964. 946. 975. 1006. 1037. 1070. 1104. 1137.
6° 711. 767. 772. 788. 771. 762. 790. 820. 850. 883. 916.

TOTAL ENROLLMENT ( E 8883. 8827. 8794. 8818. 8880. 8999. 9158. 9321. 9487. 9656. 9828.

(.:21) (.285) (.20) (.195) (.19) (.185) (.18) (.175) (.17) (.165) (.16)
DEPARTMENT OF Grades 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
PARAGUARI
10 7612. 7612. 7612. 7612. 7612. 7612. 7612. 7612. 7612. 7612. 7612.
20 6441. 6052. 6090. 6128. 6166. 6204. 6242. 6280. 6318. 6356. 6394.
30 4977. 5121. 4842. 4902. 4964. 5025. 5087. 5150. 5212. 5276. 5339.
40 4392. 3957. 4097. 3898. 3971. 4046. 4121. 4197. 4275. 4352. 4432.
50 3220. 3492. 3166. 3298. 3157. 3236. 3318. 3400. 3484. 3570. 3656.
60 2635. 2560. 2794. 2549. 2671. 2573. 2654. 2737. 2822. 2909. 2999.

TOTAL ENROLLMENT ( E ) 29277. 28792. 28599. 28387. 28541. 28696. 29033. 29376. 29722. 30074. 30431.

(.W6) (.155) (.150) (.145) (.140) (.135) (.130) (.125) (.120) (.115) (.110)
DEPARTMENT OF Grades 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
ALTO PARANA
10 * 7292. 7817. 8380. 8983. 9630. 10323. 11067. 11863. 12718. 13633. 14615~
20 5241. 6162. 6644. 7165. 7725. 8330. 8981. 9684. 10439. 11255. 12133.
30 4102. 4429. 5238. 5681. 6162. 6682. 7247. 7858. 8522. 9239. 10017.
40 2735. 3466. 3765. 4478. 4886. 5330. 5813. 6341. 6915. 7542. 8223.
50 2051. 2311. 2946. 3219. 3851. 4226. 4637. 5086. 5580. 6120. 6712.
6° 1367. 1733. 1964. 2519. 2768. 3331. 3677. 4057. 4476. 4938. 5447.

TOTAL ENROLLMENT ( E )*22788. 25918. 28937. 32045. 35022. 38223. 41422. 44890. 48650. 52727. 57147.0

(.27) (.266) (.262) (.258) (.254) (.250) (.246) (.242) (.238) (.234) (.230)
DEPARTMENT OF Grades 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
CHACO, NUEVA ASUN-

CION, ALTO PARA -

GUAY Y BOQUERON

10 1047. 1063. 1079. 1095. 1111. 1128. 1145. 1162. 1179. 1197. 1215.
20 946. 768. 784. 801. 817. 833. 851. 868. 885. 903. 922.
30 608. 694. 567. 582. 598. 613. 628. 645. 661. 678. 695.
40 338. 446. 512. 421. 434. 449. 462. 476. 491. 508. 522.
50 236. 248. 329. 380. 314. 326. 339. 350. 363. 376. 391.
60 203. 173. 183. 244. 283. 236. 246. 257. 267. 278. 290.

TOTAL ENROLLMENT ( E ) 3378. 3392. 3454. 3523. 3557. 3585. 3671. 3758. 3846. 3940. 4035.

* These high enrollment figures for Alto Parana are due to the high annual growth rates considered
for eligible population (7.2% yearly) which in turn -espond to high rates of inmigration flows to
the region.
 - 247 - Page 1

Table i0.3: RURAL PRIMARY EDUCATION: STUDENT ENROLLMENT FLOWS BY YEAR AND BY DEPARTMENTAND
INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS ESTIMATES 1981-1990

DEPARTMENT OF CONCEPCION 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Increased Enrollment (#) 626. 1386. 250. 260. 306. 65. 592. 610. 627. 629.
2. Estimated SQ. MT. Deficits (SQ.MT.) 751.2 1663.2 300.0 312.0 367.2 78.0 710.4 732.0 752.4 754.8
3. Resulting Investment Requirements 217.2 480.9 86.7 90.2 106.2 22.6 205.4 211.7 217.5 218.2
(000 US$)

DEPARTMENT OF SAN PEDRO 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Increased Enrollment (#) 1104. 845. 1185. 1052. 1163. 1392. 1445. 1594. 1565. 1626.
2. Estimated SQ. MT. Deficits (SQ.MT.) 1324.8 1014.0 1422.0 1262.4 1395.6 1670.4 1734.0 1804.8 1878.0 1951.2
3. Resulting Investment Requirements 383.1 293.2 411.2 365.0 403.5 483.0 501.4 521.8 543.0 564.2
(000 US$)

DEPARTMENT OF CORDILLERA 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Increased Enrollment (#) - - - 46. 238. 301. 307. 311. 314. 319.

3.*Resulting Investment Requirements - - - 8.9 45.9 58.0 59.2 59.9 60.5 100.0
(000 US$)

DEPARTMENT OF GUAIRA 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Increased Enrollment (#) 361. 367. 252. 189. 225. 221. 225. 227. 231. 337.

3.*Resulting Investment Requirements 69.6 70.7, 48.6 36.4 43.4 42.6 43.4 43.8 44.5 65.0
(000 US$)

DEPARTMENT OF CAAGUAZU 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Increased Enrollment (#) 1128. 1547. 1786. 1792. 1909. 2353. 2460. 2573. 2691. 2814.

3.*Resulting Investment Requirements 217.4 298.2 344.3 345.4 368.0 453.6 474.2 496.0 518.7 542.4
(000 US$)

DEPARTMENT OF CAAZAPA 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Increased Enrollment (#)

3.*Resulting Investment Requirements

(000 US$)

DEPARTMENT OF ITAPUA 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Increased Enrollment (#) 648. 723. 976. 1022. 1247. 1463. 1517. 1572. 1630. 1688.
2. Estimated SQ. MT. Deficits (SQ.MT.) 777.6 S6_F( 1171.2 1226.4 1496.4 1755.6 1820.4 1886.4 1956.0 2025.6
3. Resulting Investment Requirements 224.8 250.9 338.6 354.6 432.7 507.6 526.4 545.4 565.6 585.7
(000 US$)
 - 248 - Page 2

Table 10.3: RURALPRIMARYEDUCATION: STUDENTENROLLMENT

FLOWSBY YEARANDBY DEPARTMENT AND
BY INVESTMENTREQUIREMENTS
ESTIMATES1981-1990

DEPARTMENT OF MISIONES 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Increased Enrollment (4) - - - 116. 119. 159. 163. 166. 169. 172.

3.*Resulting Investment Requirements - - - 22.4 22.9 30.6 31.4 32.0 32.6 33.2
(000 US5 )

DEPARTMENT OF PARAGUARI 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Increased Enrollment (#) - - - - - - 99. 346. 352. 339.

3.* Resulting Investments Requirements - - - - - - 19.1 66.7 67.9 65.3

(000
ouS$)

DEPARTMENT OF ALTO PARANA 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Increased Enrollment (#) 3130. 3019. 3108. 2977. 3201. 3199. 3468. 3760. 4077. 4420.
2. Estimated SQ. MT. Deficits (SQ.MT.) 3756.0 3622.8 3729.6 3572.4 3841.2 3838.8 4161.6 4512.0 4892.4 5304.0
3.*Resulting Investments Requirements 1086.0 1047.5 1078.4 1032.9 1110.6 1110.0 1203.3 1304.6 1414.6 1533.6
(000 US$)

DEPARTMENT OF CENTRAL 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Increased Enrollment (#) 1787. 1803. 1579. 1638. 1962. 1738. 1785. 1839. 1927. 1948.

3.*Resulting Investments Requirements 344.5 347.5 304.4 315.7 378.2 335.0 344.1 354.5 371.4 375.5
(000 US$)

DEPARTMENT OF 8EEMBUCU 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Increased Enrollment (#) - - 36. 125. 203. 217. 224. 229. 237. 245.

3.*Resulting Investment Requirements - - 6.9 24.1 39.1 41.8 43.2 44.1 45.7 47.2
(000 US$)

DEPARTMENT OF AMAMBAY 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Increased Enrollment (#) 263. 291. 347. 379. 423. 445. 469. 499. 530. 562.
2. Estimated SQ. MT. Deficits (SQ.MT.) 315.6 349.2 416.4 454.8 507.6 534.0 562.8 598.8 636.0 674.4
3. Resulting Investment Requirements 91.3 101.0 120.4 131.5 146.8 154.4 162.7 173.1 183.9 195.0
(000 US$)

DEPARTMENT OF CANENDIYU 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Increased Enrollment (#) 827. 661. 581. 541. 517. 486. 511. 537. 565. 598.
2. Estimated SQ. MT. Deficits (SQ.MT.) 992.4 793.2 697.2 649.2 620.4 583.2 613.2 644.4 678.0 717.6
3. Resulting Investment Requirements 286.9 229.3 201.6 187.7 179.4 168.6 177.3 186.3 196.0 207.5
(000 US$)
 - 249 - Page I

Tthle 10.3: RURAL PRIMARY EDUCATION: STUDENT ENROLLMENT FLOWS BY YEAR AND BY DEPARTMENT AND
BY INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS ESTIMATES 2981-1990

DEPARTMENTOF PDTE. HAYES. 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Increased Enrollment (#) 39. 88. 160. 151. 181. 138. 144. 149. 151. 154.
2. Estimated SQ. MT. Deficits (SQ.MT.) 46.8 105.6 192.0 181.2 217.2 165.6 172.8 178.8 181.2 184.8
3. Resulting Investment Requirements 13.5 30.5 55.5 52.4 62.8 47.9 50.0 51.7 52.4 53.4
(000 US$0

DEPARTMENT OF CHACO, NUEVA ASUNCION,

ALTO PARAGUAY Y BOQUERON 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

1. Increased Enrollment (#) 14. 62. 69. 34. 28. 86. 87. a8. 94. 95.
2. Estimated SQ. MT. Deficits (SQ.MT.) 16.8 74.4 82.8 40.8 33.6 103.2 104.4 105.6 112.8 114.0
3. Resulting Investment Requirements 4.9 21.5 23.9 11.8 9.7 29.8 30.2 30.5 32.6 33.0
(000 US$)

Footnotes:

- The basis for this Table is the information presented in Table 10.2 and Tables 13 and 14 in main text.

- Row 3. in each case is estimated as USS 289.14 per SQ. MT. accordinq to the SQ. MT.
projected in Row 2. (1.2 SQ. MT. per student enrolled; considers school construc -
tion)

- Row 3* in each case is estimated as US$ 192.76 per additional student enrolled (con
siders classroom expansion only).