GUMBELL

SERIE DE MAXIMAS
ANUALES
Year Caudal
1990 131.2
1991 147.6
1992 141.3
1993 170.1
1994 191.3
1995 103.8
1996 129.3
1997 98.7
1998 105.6
1999 120.3
2000 58
2001 176.3
2002 195
2003 138.5
2004 112.6
2005 128.3
2006 98.1
2007 126.9

Parametros Modelo Gumbell Normal

N Datos 18 Tr Yi Xi
Media 131.827778 2 0.366512921 126.672818
Desviacion 35.1955346 5 1.499939987 164.690136
Yn 0.5202 10 2.250367327 189.860908
Sn 1.0493 20 2.970195249 214.005318
a 0.02981344 25 3.198534261 221.664246
Xf 114.379272 50 3.901938658 245.257779
Xi Pronostico 100 4.600149227 268.6771
Yi Vari Redux
 Parametros Modelo Gumbell con Factores de Frecuencia (valores Extremos)
N Datos 18 Tr Yt Xt
Media 131.827778 2 0.366512921 126.046135
Desviacion 35.1955346 5 1.499939987 157.149466
α 27.4418457 10 2.250367327 177.742577
μ 115.988344 20 2.970195249 197.495984
Xt Pronostico 25 3.198534261 203.762028
Yt Vari Redux 50 3.901938658 223.064743
100 4.600149227 242.22493

BONDAD DE AJUSTE

CHI ^2
N Datos 18
Max 195 L 27.4
Min 58 # interv 4.22037176
Rango 137 # interv 5

GUMBEL NORMAL

Interv Inf Interv Sup Frecuencia F(Interv Sup) F(Interv Inf) P(II≥IS) Ei Chi ^2
58 85.4 1 0.09324122 0.00465333 0.08858789 1.594582028 0.22170561
85.4 112.8 5 0.35056485 0.09324122 0.25732363 4.631825406 0.02926547
112.8 140.2 6 0.62932751 0.35056485 0.27876266 5.017727822 0.19228995
140.2 167.6 2 0.81497234 0.62932751 0.18564484 3.341607041 0.53863588
167.6 195 4 0.91357149 0.81497234 0.09859915 1.774784702 2.7899627

V Grados Freedom 2 Chi^2 Calculado Normal 3.771859613

K Intervalos 5 menor que teorico good model
M Parametros 2 Chi^2 Calculado FF 4.511063802
Significancia 5% menor que teorico good model
Chi^2 Teorico 5.99

KOLMOGOROV SMIRNOV

N Datos
18
Orden m Caudal, Orden
Mayor-Menor Weibull F(Xo)
Modelo Abs(F(Xm)-
Caudales de Excedencia F(Xm) F(Xo))
131.2 1 195 0.94736842 0.91357149 0.03379693
147.6 2 191.3 0.89473684 0.90399116 0.00925432
141.3 3 176.3 0.84210526 0.85397247 0.0118672
170.1 4 170.1 0.78947368 0.82703696 0.03756328
191.3 5 147.6 0.73684211 0.68975481 0.0470873
103.8 6 141.3 0.68421053 0.63880091 0.04540961
129.3 7 138.5 0.63157895 0.61435653 0.01722242
98.7 8 131.2 0.57894737 0.54572976 0.03321761
105.6 9 129.3 0.52631579 0.52680336 0.00048757
120.3 10 128.3 0.47368421 0.51668395 0.04299974
58 11 126.9 0.42105263 0.50234492 0.08129228
176.3 12 120.3 0.36842105 0.43249509 0.06407404
195 13 112.6 0.31578947 0.3483741 0.03258462
138.5 14 105.6 0.26315789 0.27275288 0.00959498 Significancia
112.6 15 103.8 0.21052632 0.25390028 0.04337396 D=
128.3 16 98.7 0.15789474 0.20272107 0.04482633 D menor que
98.1 17 98.1 0.10526316 0.19696502 0.09170186
126.9 18 58 0.05263158 0.00465333 0.04797825
ormal
P(X<xi)
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.95
0.96
0.98 R; Riesgo de Falla
T; Periodo de Retorno
0.99 n; vida util del proyecto

Calcular la variable Hidrologica

F(X)=1-1/Tr
uencia (valores Extremos)
P(X<xi)
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.95
0.96
0.98
0.99

GUMBEL FACTORES DE FRECUENCIA

Interv Inf Interv Sup Frecuencia F(Interv Sup) F(Interv Inf) P(II≥IS) Ei
58 85.4 1 0.04742843 0.00025503 0.04717341 0.84912135
85.4 112.8 5 0.325236 0.04742843 0.27780757 5.00053621
112.8 140.2 6 0.66111049 0.325236 0.33587448 6.04574071
140.2 167.6 2 0.85858168 0.66111049 0.19747119 3.5544815
167.6 195 4 0.94537136 0.85858168 0.08678968 1.56221432
Significancia 5% N Datos 18
0.09170186 C= 0.309
D menor que C,Good Model
Hidrologica
Chi ^2
0.02680932
5.7499E-08
0.00034606
0.67982144
3.80408692
 SERIE DE MAXIMAS
ANUALES
Log de Variable
Year Caudal Hidrologica Yi (Yi-Ym)^2 (Yi-Ym)^3
1990 131.2 2.11793384 0.00019464 2.7155E-06
1991 147.6 2.16908636 0.004238515 0.00027594
1992 141.3 2.15014216 0.002130717 9.83532E-05
1993 170.1 2.23070431 0.016058424 0.00203495
1994 191.3 2.28171497 0.031588839 0.00561436
1995 103.8 2.01619735 0.007706228 -0.00067649
1996 129.3 2.11159852 5.800419E-05 4.41763E-07
1997 98.7 1.99431715 0.012026483 -0.00131889
1998 105.6 2.02366392 0.006451071 -0.00051814
1999 120.3 2.08026563 0.000562489 -1.334E-05
2000 58 1.76342799 0.115977356 -0.03949661
2001 176.3 2.24625231 0.020240706 0.00287964
2002 195 2.29003461 0.034615397 0.00644027
2003 138.5 2.14144977 0.001403798 5.25965E-05
2004 112.6 2.05153839 0.002750382 -0.00014424
2005 128.3 2.10822666 1.801306E-05 7.64507E-08
2006 98.1 1.99166901 0.012614315 -0.00141676
2007 126.9 2.10346162 2.712896E-07 -1.413E-10

Parametros Modelo
N Datos 18
Promedio 2.103982477
Desviacion 0.125706392
Sy 0.125706392
Cs -0.048463358
Kt 2.53088

Tr Kt Yt Xt
2 0.00823877 2.105018143 127.355628
5 0.84393853 2.210070945 162.207505
10 1.2761844 2.264407013 183.826032
25 1.73403782 2.321962116 209.87568
50 2.02782979 2.358893643 228.503914
100 2.29013712 2.391867351 246.528624
500 2.53044444 2.422075518 264.286828
 2 -0.057684544
5 0.868186126
10 1.312842272
25 1.863888803 Xo
50 2.235014199 X1
100 2.578100163
500 2.90066641
Xo 0 Yo Y1
X1 -0.1 0 0.017
0.842 0.846
1.282 1.27
1.751 1.716
2.054 2
 2.326 2.252
2.576 2.482
0.3480284

0.4 Yo Y1
0.3 -0.05 -0.066 -0.05
0.824 0.916 0.824
1.309 1.317 1.309
1.849 1.88 1.849
2.211 2.261 2.211
2.544 2.615 2.544
2.856 2.949 2.856
2.576
2.482
 Serie de Maximas
Anuales
28 Oct
37.7 Dic
58.6 Feb
56 Nov
100 Ago Parametros del Modelo Correccion de intervalo fijo;
27.8 Oct Media 38.7225 + 13% de la precipitacion estima
46.6 Oct Desviacion 18.5528
21 Oct α 14.4656
39.1 Nov μ 30.3730
32.3 Nov Xt Pre. Modelo
60.1 Nov Yt Vari. Redux
26.5 May
24.06 Nov Estimacion del Modelo en Precipitacion
28.4 Ene Tr Yt Xt P(X<xt)
33.2 Oct 2 0.3665 35.6748 0.5
42.1 Feb 5 1.4999 52.0704 0.8
32.1 Jun 10 2.2504 62.9258 0.9
29.5 Jun 20 2.9702 73.3385 0.95
26.1 Nov 25 3.1985 76.6416 0.96
25.29 Oct 50 3.9019 86.8167 0.98
100 4.6001 96.9167 0.99
500 6.2136 120.2563 0.998

Precipitacion maxima para lluvias de duracion 24h

Precipitacion Maxima en Tr
Duracion H Porcentaje 2 5 10 20 25
24 1 40.3125 58.8396 71.1061 82.8725 86.6050
18 0.91 36.6844 53.5440 64.7066 75.4140 78.8105
12 0.8 32.2500 47.0717 56.8849 66.2980 69.2840
8 0.68 27.4125 40.0109 48.3522 56.3533 58.8914
6 0.61 24.5906 35.8922 43.3747 50.5522 52.8290
5 0.57 22.9781 33.5386 40.5305 47.2373 49.3648
4 0.52 20.9625 30.5966 36.9752 43.0937 45.0346
3 0.46 18.5438 27.0662 32.7088 38.1214 39.8383
2 0.39 15.7219 22.9474 27.7314 32.3203 33.7759
1 0.3 12.0938 17.6519 21.3318 24.8618 25.9815
 Intensidad Maxima en Tr
Duracion H Duracion m 2 5 10 20 25
24 1440 1.6797 2.4517 2.9628 3.4530 3.6085
18 1080 2.0380 2.9747 3.5948 4.1897 4.3784
12 720 2.6875 3.9226 4.7404 5.5248 5.7737
8 480 3.4266 5.0014 6.0440 7.0442 7.3614
6 360 4.0984 5.9820 7.2291 8.4254 8.8048
5 300 4.5956 6.7077 8.1061 9.4475 9.8730
4 240 5.2406 7.6491 9.2438 10.7734 11.2586
3 180 6.1813 9.0221 10.9029 12.7071 13.2794
2 120 7.8609 11.4737 13.8657 16.1601 16.8880
1 60 12.0938 17.6519 21.3318 24.8618 25.9815

I Wait

Tr t I Watch I Wait (wat-wai)^2

2 1440 0.2788397652
5 1440 425.47571589
10 1440 108921.78327
20 1440 27883976.516
25 1440 166201451.52
50 1440 42547571589
100 1440 1.089218E+13
500 1440 4.254757E+18
2 1080 0.4797511291
5 1080 732.04212815
10 1080 187402.78481
20 1080 47975112.91
25 1080 285953956.31
50 1080 73204212815
100 1080 1.874028E+13
500 1080 7.320421E+18
2 720 1.0126181717
5 720 1545.1327084
10 720 395553.97334
20 720 101261817.17
25 720 603567464.2
50 720 154513270836
100 720 3.95554E+13
500 720 1.545133E+19
2 480 2.0777534291
5 480 3170.4001299
10 480 811622.43324
20 480 207775342.91
25 480 1238437551
50 480 317040012986
100 480 8.116224E+13
500 480 3.1704E+19
2 360 3.3822169375
5 360 5160.8534813
10 360 1321178.4912
20 360 338221693.75
25 360 2015958391
50 360 516085348131
100 360 1.321178E+14
500 360 5.160853E+19
2 300 4.5511111111
5 300 6944.4444444
10 300 1777777.7778
20 300 455111111.11
25 300 2712673611
50 300 694444444444
100 300 1.777778E+14
500 300 6.944444E+19
2 240 6.4499874024
5 240 9841.8997229
10 240 2519526.3291
20 240 644998740.24
25 240 3844492079
50 240 984189972285
100 240 2.519526E+14
500 240 9.8419E+19
2 180 9.8423683199
5 180 15018.262207
10 180 3844675.125
20 180 984236832
25 180 5866508675
50 180 1.501826E+12
100 180 3.844675E+14
500 180 1.501826E+20
2 120 16.831032216
5 120 25682.117028
10 120 6574621.9592
 20 120 1683103222
25 120 10032076964
50 120 2.568212E+12
100 120 6.574622E+14
500 120 2.568212E+20
2 60 35.11659808
5 60 53583.676269
10 60 13717421.125
20 60 3511659808
25 60 20931123543
50 60 5.358368E+12
100 60 1.371742E+15
500 60 5.358368E+20
eccion de intervalo fijo;
% de la precipitacion estimada

recipitacion
Correc Int Fijo
40.3125
58.8396
71.1061
82.8725
86.6050
98.1029
109.5159
135.8896

acion 24h

axima en Tr
50 100 500
98.1029 109.5159 135.8896
89.2736 99.6594 123.6595
78.4823 87.6127 108.7117
66.7099 74.4708 92.4049
59.8427 66.8047 82.8926
55.9186 62.4240 77.4571
51.0135 56.9482 70.6626
45.1273 50.3773 62.5092
38.2601 42.7112 52.9969
29.4309 32.8548 40.7669
xima en Tr
50 100 500
4.0876 4.5632 5.6621
4.9596 5.5366 6.8700
6.5402 7.3011 9.0593
8.3387 9.3088 11.5506
9.9738 11.1341 13.8154
11.1837 12.4848 15.4914
12.7534 14.2371 17.6656
15.0424 16.7924 20.8364
19.1301 21.3556 26.4985
29.4309 32.8548 40.7669

Parametros para el Modelo

C a b n
2500 8 75 2