Question 2:

As mentioned in the case that there are only 3 curtains on the stage named orderly, A, B and C.
And just only behind one of them contains a prize of a brand-new care which is worth $ 20,000.
In the case you choose Curtain A. The host will expose an empty curtain that he knows for sure,
curtain C, then he will offer the new deal, keep curtain A or switch to curtain B.
We have the decision tree drawn like followed:

1
𝑃(𝐻𝑜𝑠𝑡 ′ 𝑠 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 |𝑅𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒) = 2 (Because if the car is behind curtain A, which we
select from the first time, the host have to open either curtain B, or curtain C for revealing then)

𝑃(𝑅𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒|𝐻𝑜𝑠𝑡 ′ 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 𝐶)

𝑃(𝐻𝑜𝑠𝑡 ′ 𝑠 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 𝐶|𝑅𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒). 𝑃(𝑅𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒)
=
𝑃(𝐻𝑜𝑠𝑡 ′ 𝑠 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 𝐶)
1 1
= 2.2 =
1
1 1 1 3
2.2 + 2.1
 𝑃(𝑅𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑈𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒|𝐻𝑜𝑠𝑡 ′ 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 𝐶) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑅𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒|𝐻𝑜𝑠𝑡 ′ 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 𝐶)
1 2
= 1− =
3 3

𝑃(𝐻𝑜𝑠𝑡 ′ 𝑠 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 |𝑅𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒) = 1 (Because if the car is in the curtain B, the host have
to open the curtain which are different from the curtain containing a car and from the selected
curtain by the player, which are curtain C)

𝑃(𝑆𝑤𝑖𝑡𝑐ℎ 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒|𝐻𝑜𝑠𝑡 ′ 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 𝐶)

1
=
𝑃(𝐻𝑜𝑠𝑡 ′ 𝑠 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 𝐶|𝑆𝑤𝑖𝑡𝑐ℎ 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒). 𝑃(𝑆𝑤𝑖𝑡𝑐ℎ 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒)
= 2.1
𝑃(𝐻𝑜𝑠𝑡 ′ 𝑠 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 𝐶) 1 1 1
2.2 + 2.1
2
=
3

2
𝑃(𝑆𝑤𝑖𝑡𝑐ℎ 𝑈𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒|𝐻𝑜𝑠𝑡 ′ 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 𝐶) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑆𝑤𝑖𝑡𝑐ℎ 𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒|𝐻𝑜𝑠𝑡 ′ 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘 𝐶) = 1 −
3
1
=
3

1 2
𝐸𝑀𝑉 (𝑁𝑜𝑑𝑒 1) = . 20,000 + . 0 = 6,666.7
3 3
2 1
𝐸𝑀𝑉 (𝑁𝑜𝑑𝑒 2) = . 20,000 + . 0 = 13,333.3
3 3
Because 𝐸𝑀𝑉 (𝑁𝑜𝑑𝑒 2) > 𝐸𝑀𝑉 (𝑁𝑜𝑑𝑒 1) > 𝐸𝑀𝑉(𝑄𝑢𝑖𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑒), so the best strategies is
to switch to the remaining curtain, which is Curtain B, after the host chooses to open curtain C
with empty prize.