Journal of xvronmencl Management 155 (2015) 11-28 ‘Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Environmental Management Journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locateljenvman ELSEVIER An integrated system dynamics model developed for managing lake water quality at the watershed scale Hui Liu +", Gaboury Benoit ‘, Tao Liu “”, Yong Liu °, Huaicheng Guo °"” ®pepartmen of Geography and Resource Mangement. The Chinese Univers of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Chine ° Clee of EnvtonmentlSclence and Engineering, Peking Unser, Being Che < Sthol of Paety Enwinonentl Suds, Yle Univers, New Haven USA "Deparment of Geography The Univer of Hang Kong Hong Korg. China ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT ice hore ceived 19 Sepember 2014 Received in reve fo Srebnuary 2015. ‘Accepted 28 February 2015, ‘ealable ontine 12 Maren 2015 ‘Xraliable system simulation to relate socioeconomic development with water environment and ‘comprehensively represent a wateshed's éynamic features is important. In this study, afer Wentitving lake watershed system processes, we developed a system dynamics modeling framework for managing lake water quality at Ure watershed scale. Two reinforcing loops (Development and favestment Pro- motion) and three balancing loops (Pollition, Resoutce Consumption, and Pollution Contal) were Consttuted. Based on this work We constructed Stock and Flow Diagrams that embedded a pollutant Toad model and a lake water quality model into a socioeconomic system dynamics model. The Dianchi Lake in Yunnan Province, China, which isthe sixth largest and among the most severely polluted ffeshwater lakes in China, was employed as a case study to demonatrate the applicabily ofthe model Water quality parameters considered in the model included chemical oxygen demand (COD) total ni= trogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP), The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and thyee alternative ‘management scenarios on spatal adjustment of industries and population (S1), wastewater treatment capacity construction (52}, and structural adjustment of agriculture (53. were simulated to asses the effectiveness of certain polices in improving water quality. Results showed that S2 is most effective Scenario, andthe COD, TN. ané TP concentrations in Caohai in 2030 are 525,108, and 08 mil, while Uhose in Waibat ate 86, 12, and 0.08 mg/L. with sustained development in the watershed. Thus. the ‘model can help support the decision making required in development and environmental protection strategies Rowers ‘Watershed management Secorconemic development ake water quality Sytem dynamics modeling © 2015 Elsevier In, All rights reserved, 1. Introduction In China, among the 35 Key lakes that were monitored by the Ministry of Environmental Protection in 2012, only 37.2% satisfied Lakes play a major role in the life of humans because they provide the water required for agriculture, drinking, industry, and Fecreation (Rast, 2003), However, because of this close relationship of lakes with humans, high-intensity production activities occur neat lakes and massive populations lve in areas neighboring lakes. This causes problems such as the overexploitation of lake water resources and the discharge of large volumes of pollutants i lakes, which leads to substantial deterioration of lake water quality * corresponding author Erna odes pslish®mailcom (Li bourses com (G Bent liszopkuegmalcom CE Lu) yenehuepkueden (Y Uu}, nequoeprueces 8 0 np dot ac 101016}Jevinan 201502066 0301-4797/6 2015 Hee id. Al rights esecved the standards set for drinking water sources (Grades III): 42.8% ‘met the lower standards (Grades IV-V) set for general water use in industry, recreation, or agriculture, and 20% were of a quality even lower than this (Ministry of Environmental Protection of the Peo- ple's Republic of China, or MIEPPRC, 2013). Conversely, the deteri- oration of lake water quality has restricted the development of regions near lakes because of water security concerns, such as in the case of the lack of drinking water caused in 2007 by a cyano- bacteria bloom in Taihu Lake, China (Guo, 2007). These conflicts originate from the imbalance between overly rapid socioeconomic development and asynchronous water protection efforts. To control this situation and limit the deterioration of lake water quality, the use of integrated watershed management has been widely accepted in recent years (imperial, 2005: Wang, 2010). For example,2 A Lv ea Journal of Environmental Managemen 155 (2015) 1223 the integrated endeavors undertaken in order to achieve sustain- ability in the Tathu Lake watershed include shutting down or relocating hundreds of small manufacturing plants that generate large amounts of pollution, increasing the stringency ofthe controls fon effluents from factories, and constructing additional sewage treatment facilities in the watershed (Stone, 2011) The watershed is used as the basic unit for management because it forms a natural boundary that is functional, table, and identifi- able (Bohn and Kershner, 2002; Demissie and Keefer, 1998). From a systems” perspective, the watershed is considered to be a system shat integrates socioeconomic and physical processes (Mavcomumati et al, 2013; Kubiano etal, 2006), These processes are closely related through exploitation of resources and provision of service functions. The approach commonly used for watershed ‘management encompasses the following processes: (a) system recognition, (b) diagnostic analysis, (c) goal setting, (4) system simulation, (e) strategy assessment, and (0) strategy optimization (Heathcote, 1998; Nakamura, 2003), Among these processes, reli able system simulation, which relates socioeconomic development to its effects on the water environment in the watershed, is the principal step used for assessing the effects of various management ‘measures and for providing guidance to policy makers. Being a coupled human and natural system, the watershed system exhibits characteristics of nonlinear dynamics and features thresholds and reciprocal feedback loops (Liu et al, 2007). Thus, system modeling should allow complex interactions and feedback among distinct components of watershed to be simulated for the purpose of understanding the system behavior and also for deter- ‘mining the possible outcomes of system changes (Kelly tal, 2013}, In accordance with the processes inherent in a Watershed, several subsectors can be integrated in the model: socioeconomics, pollutant load, and water quality. From a spatial perspective, so- ioeconomics and pollutant load sectors are used to simulate pro- cesses such as prociiction activities and polhitants generation that ‘occur in the upland watershed, whereas water quality processes function within the downstream water body (Deele al, 2008), Various models have been developed to simulate the processes, that occur in a watershed. Macroeconomic models such as ‘input-output models can link economic sectors and their pollutant loads (Ni etal, 2001; Okaclera et al, 2006), However, because such models are focused on the economic production process, domestic nd nonpoint source pollution are not encompassed, In models that couple the sectors of hydrodynamics, pollutant loads, and water quality, the change in land use is employed as a link between hu- man activities and water cycles (Lerodiaconow et al, 2005: ‘Mattialli and Richards, 1996}, Whereas nonpoint source pollu- tion is estimated indirectly based on land use, point sources are included directly. When pollutant loads and’ water quality re- sponses are coupled, the main source of contaminants can be traced and appropriate management practices can be adopted (Devele ft al, 2008). Moreover, when models of land use dynamics are embedded, reasonable and accurate land use scenarios can be ob- tained and used for simulating the effects of land use change (Tang et al, 2005: Wan et al, 2014). Furthermore, because economic concerns support decision making in watershed management, they have been included in models such as hydro-economic models, with the focus being placed on costs and benefits (Heinz et a 2007; Onal etal, 1998; Qj and Altinakar, 2011; Ward, 2009), Such coupled models are focused only on the physical processes that ‘occur in a watershed of on the microeconomic concerns related to water systems, and because socioeconomic processes are not coupled, the models cannot be used for assessing the long-term dynamic effects of socioeconomic development on the water environment, Because watershed systems are large, dynamic, and complex, simulations must incorporate the main characteristics ofthe sys- tem in order to be accurate, but must do so simply in order to be applicable. For developing water resource policies. a system must be conceptualized holistically by including physical and socioeco- nomic dimensions (Gohari et al, 2013; Simonovie and Fahmy, 1999). Because system dynamics (SD) models serve as test ‘models for real-world systems, they can effectively integrate distinct model sectors and are particularly useful for simulating, socioeconomic processes (Vidal-Legaz et al, 2013). $D was first developed by Forrester in Industrial Dynamics (Forrester, 1958), and later in 1972, its application as a World Model in order t0 simulate the consequences of exponential economic and popula tion growth in the presence of finite resources on the earth was of considerable significance by promoting stirring conversation about slobal carrying capacity (escows et al, 2004). Because SD models allow dynamic and holistic features to be represented (Hong etal, 12009) and facilitate system-level thinking (Mitch etal, 2012), they ‘ean be used for incorporating component-level knowledge into system behavior simulations (Guo et al. 2001). SD models can be used for describing feedback relationships within and among subsystems, including the feedback effects that environmental changes might exert on the socioeconomic system (Fedia, 1984). Making water resource policies requires the participation of and communication between people such as government officals of various departments, scholars, and the general public. These par ticipants must understand and then modify and explore the capa- bilities of the models adopted (Meadows and Robinson, 2002) SD models can be readily understood by stakeholders because of the visible display of structure and consequences (Stave. 2003). The strengths of transparency and adaptability make SD models well sited for use in multdisciplinary problems (Winz-et al, 2009), and ‘thus they can facilitate the recommendation of policy decisions. SD hhas been used widely in simulations of complex water systems including municipal water systems (Oi and Chang, 2011: Rehan ct al, 2013), watershed landscapes (Costanza et al, 1997; Voinov ce al, 1999}, and pollutant fluxes (Michi and Watkins, 2073; [vers et al, 2013: Venkatesan et al, 2011). Physical processes can. also be abstracted and represented as SD modules in order t0 couple them with socioeconomic processes (Feira, 1984); Guo etal 2001; Prodanovic and Simonovic, 2010; Qin et al, 2011), and thus cetire watershed systems can be effectively simulated. ‘The above existing models show that incorporating socioeco- nomic factors is a trend in watershed dynamic modeling frame- ‘work: In this study, an SD modeling framework was developed for ‘managing lake water quality atthe watershed scale. The boundaries of the watershed system encompass economic, social, and water ‘environmental considerations that are used in system manage- ment, A pollutant load madel and a lake water quality model we ‘embedded into a socioeconomic SD model inthis study to establish fan integrated model, Compared to current models, our SD ‘modeling framework clearly expresses the feedbacks among a watersheds socioeconomic development, polhitant load, and water quality. It also pays sufficient attention to the subdivisions of different socioeconomic sectors to adapt to the needs for assessing. ‘water pollution control effects of socioeconomic adjustment. The ‘mode! is useful in decision making. for it helps understand the features and behaviors of a watershed system; it also allows policy makers and stakeholders to assess the effects exerted by various pollution control strategies, which can be quantified, on water quality. The Dianchi Lake watershed, which drains to the sixth largest and one of the most severely polluted lakes in China, was chosen as a case study for validating the model and testing the potential use of the model in policy guidance.‘Hiv et Jul of Environmental Mangement 1552015) 1122 2 2. Methodological framework. 21. Modeling processes 211, Mentification of lake-watershed system processes Because a lake receives all the surface water in a watershed, itis affected by numerous types of natural processes and human ac- tivities. In urbanized lake watersheds in particular, water quality is affected by pollution discharged as a result of economic production ‘and social activities and also by the wastewater treatment prac- tices. Thus, the lake watershed comprises three subsystems, the socioeconomic, water resource and pollution, and lake subsystems. The socioeconomic subsystem includes economic growth and population growth, which are drivers of water resource demand ‘and pollution discharge, The lake subsystem supports the socio ‘economic subsystem by providing freshwater and assimilating pollution, while concurrently restricting the development scale and mode because ofits environmental capacity Processes within watershed systems are interlinked through, water flows (Fig. 1). Human activities, including economic pro- ‘duction and household living, draw freshwater from water bodies ‘such as rivers and lakes and then discharge wastewater. The com- bination of urban domestic sewage, industrial wastewater, and large-scale livestock farm wastewater, which is defined as point source pollution, is carried by wastewater collection pipe systems to wastewater treatment plants for the purpose of pollutant ‘removal, Moreover, nonpoint source pollution in the runoff {rom ‘built-up land and cropland is becoming an increasingly critical factor (Alm, 1990), Under most circumstances, the runoff flows directly or through wetlands into water bodies, but in certain heavily polluted areas, runoff is intercepted by stormwater collec- tion systems and carried to the treatment system in arder to reduce pollutant loads. A few wastewater treatment plants can supply reclaimed water for reuse, and most of the tail water is discharged into water bodies. In the case of the lake subsystem, pollutants ‘come from both inflow of tail water and runoff and from certain internal sources such as fisheries and shipping. The fate and the ‘transport of these pollutants alter the quality of lake water, In addition to the aforementioned watershed material flows, Consraction land Primary a pan Indisicy | e Cropland | - - |-off at |) dome han population Uitan Ue doe plan population information low (dotted line featuring hollow arrowheads in Fig 1) affects watershed system processes. The socioeconomic subsystem responds to signals of water quality deterioration through direct and indirect feedback loops. The ditect feedback includes imple- menting increased numbers of pollution control measures ‘whereas indirect feedback occurs when economic growth and population growth are limited because ofa lack of freshwater and 2 clean living environment, 212. Generalized interactions among components ‘mn framing the scope of an SD model, the fist step is the con- struction of a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). The CLD shows the feedback loops among Key variables of the model, with a positive (+) ar negative (-) sign placed beside the arrowhead that repre- ‘sents the relationship between vatiables (Ford, 1999) Five feedback loops are identified in our model (Fig. 2). Because economic evelopment and population growth can enhance each other, 3 reinforcing loop is shown between them (RI: Development). Exogenous drivers such as interest rates and policies also affect economic development. When economic development and popu- lation growth occur, water demand and pollution discharge will be increased, Subsequent, water shortages and unsatisfactory water duality can lead co inadequate water quantity and quality (.e. high water environmental pressure) and restrict the socioeconomic system, and thus form two balancing foops (B1: Pollution; B2: Resource Consumption). Concurrently, rapid economic develop- ‘ment will promote investment in the water infrastructure, and therefore pollutant loads might be decreased (Pau! etal. 2005), forming a reinforcing loop (R2: Investment Promotion). Abalancing Toop (B3: Pollution Control) also exists in the water infrastructure sectot. Increasing investment will enhance pollutant treatment capacity and thus lower the water environmental pressure and reduce water infrastructure requirements, 22. Model structures and settings Because CLDs cannot be used for handling the accumulation of variables and the response of a system, Stock and Flow Diagrams {SFDs) are used for providing the details of an SD model Shipping = |_polluvon i Outow a, | Fishery eae pluton Runott | Fig Anas of watershed sat procestes, Slides show feshwater om, deed ines featuring sod arowheads show wastewater lw, and the dalled ines etxing tow arowteas show ilrtation few fa the syern“ A. Lie or! of Enronmenal Management 155 (2015) 23 Wate Supply Lose expos Development Sere Ms Press \ ality Disgatiiion Weer Quality Goal We uty ag ———" 4 Population = i whe Peta oad Fe 2 Causal Loop Digan the watershed ater, ese avo) repeat enocing loop wheres agave ares (~) represent balancing loop Sl symbols +f-) plc ede te onto ep bt (SokolowsKt and Banks, 2009). SFDs include three types of vari ables. Stocks, or levels, represent the status of the system, the {quantities that exist at any given moment. Rate variables show the speed of flow in or outof the stocks, and they serve asthe decision- ‘making variables ina system. Auxillaies are variables that can help elaborate the stock and flow connections. The simplified SFDs of the lake watershed system are shown in Fig. 3. Gross Regional Product (GRP), population, and pollution in the lake are stocks, and their growth rates are the rate variables, Certain other variables such as the water shortage index and the water quality index are auxiliaties used for controlling rate variables or linking distinct modules. The sectors shown as gray hexagons are simplified in the SFDs and are Introduced in subsequent sections. wedi es We iy Oo ov vaabes, nd the big syabls raw withthe curved tows wound ther nde U J he ay abd ates of 221. Population and the economic sector Economic development requires a labor force, and rapid development can increase employment but also increase popula- tion, The total economic sector can be divided into primary, sec- ondary, and tertiary industries, which exhibit distinct characteristics of water demand and pollution discharge, Expo- ‘ential growth over unit time is applied to economic and popula tion growth. The method is simple, bu it can be used effectively or representing the change trend, Secondary industry is treated separately because it plays a key role in watershed economic development. Because of the reinforcing effects among GRP, GRP of secondary industry (GRP3), and total population (TPo), their ‘growth rates are interlinked and GRP growth elasticity relative to elie ids We Say weno, Fig 3 Simplied Stock and Flow Diagram of he ake watershed system, Sacks are variables shown wih etal and Stacks. Gray beagens show some a the pee sectors Wenig in the modetea una of Enirnmental Managemen 1552015) 11-22 6 secondary industry growth (Ecjs) and population growth elasticity relative to GRP growth (Fjc) are introduced. The growth rate of secondary industry is also affected by water environmental pres- sure, through table functions. Moreover, because the lifestyles of ‘urban populations differ considerably from those of rural pop- ‘ulations in China, urbanization level is introduced in order to make 2 division, Furthermore, land use change is closely related to so- cioeconomic development and allometric growth exists between built-up land expansion and population (Liang and Wang. 2002) The detailed equations ofthis and the following sectors are shown in Appendix A Not only the structure ofthe GRP, but also the internal structures. ‘of the three industrial divisions commonly determine their water use efficiency and pollution discharge levels. Thus, when structural ‘adjustment plays a critical role in pollution control measures, the various industries can be subdivided. For example, primary in- dustry includes farming, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and distinet manufacturing sectors exist in secondary industry. 22.2, Water demand and the wastewater discharge sector ‘This sector involves the freshwater demand of ané the waste- ‘water discharged by human activities. Freshwater is requited for domesticus, industrial production, and srigation. tn the case of domestic water use, we employ an indicator of comprehensive ‘water consumption per capita (FWPC). The freshwater demand of industry (FWgg) is estimated based on the water demand per ‘output of each subdivision (FWPO)), whereas that of itigation (FW) is estimated based on water demand per unit area of, ‘opland (FWPA), The calculation of wastewater discharge was similar to that of freshwater demane, except that surface runoff from cropland was omitted in calelating wastewater discharge in this study because the runoff does not enter the wastewater collection system. 22.3. Pollutant load sector Because pollution discharge accompanies wastewater genera- tion, pollution discharge is calculated using the same unit variables a those used in calculating wastewater generation. In addition to ‘the domestic and industrial point source pollution, nonpoint source pollution discharged from built-up land and cropland are included Decause they flow into the lake together with surface runoff 224, Water quality sector ‘Water quality simulations must be capable of handling nonlin- ceatity and dynamics, and this is possible with SD modeling. Thu the water quality sector can be incorporated into an SD model in ‘order to generate an integrated model for sirmulating all the pro- cesses of the lake watershed system. Because the residence times of lakes are often long, and because pollutants can be completely mixed, a steady-state mass balance model was developed (Vollenweider, 1975) and applied in strategic planning (Bilaletéin ‘cal, 2011). Im this model, the focus is on inpt—output relation- ships. The equation solution between pollutant concentrations at time t and ¢ + 1, using a finite difference method, and the equi librium concentration can be obtained, The water quality index (Wo) is then calculated. 225. Model settings [Numerous types of software and languages have been devel- ‘oped for constructing and testing SD models. Vensim and Stella are ‘wo icon-based user-friendly programs that can be understood by various stakeholders and can provide sufficient information for decision-making purposes (Ford, 2010). In this study, we chose Vensim PLE (Personal Learning Edition) 6.2 (Ventana Systems Inc 2014) because itis freely available for academic use The spatial boundary of our SD model was the lake watershed Which was divided into several sub-watersheds based on the trib- utaries flowing into the lake. However, the spatial scales of distinct subsystems differed. For example, the socioeconomic subsystem and the pollution discharge related to it were operated at an administrative level. and wastewater collection was within the service area of the wastewater treatment plant. These two scales do not necessarily match the naturally divided sub-watersheds. To accommodate this discrepancy, all the data were aggregated into sub-watershed units, based on the distribution of built-up land and cropland. In the temporal scale, the socioeconomic data were calculated at an annual step, whereas the data on lake water quality were presented at a finer temporal resolution, An annual step was chosen to reflect trenes of the watershed system, which occur over a year or several years (Vogt et al, 1997) 23. Model calibration and validation 2311. Model calibration The database used for developing the integrated SD model of the watershed included socioeconomic data, water use and pollution discharge data, and water quality data. Time series variables were obtained from the database and then rate variables were deter ‘mined directly based on the calculated growth rate of related state vvatiables (eg, growth rate of GRP, urbanization speed), Certain parameters linking two state variables (eg, the elasticity co- ellicients described in Section 2.2) were extracted by performing regression analysis. Parameters defined as table functions were established based on the nonlinear relationship between variables and system-level information (W/idal-Legaz et al, 2012). The shape ofthe function was determined first and then the values ofthe two variables were established. 232, Model validation The model was validated in order to check its applicability and accuracy. First, we use behavior replication as a verification approach to test whether the model can reproduce the behavior of key parameters both qualitatively and quantitatively (Mitch et al 2012), Maximal relative error (M) and normalized standatd error (E) were calculated based on the difference between measured historical data and the simulated data, Whereas M indicates the ‘maximal divergence between the data Eis used for comparing the vatiables of distinct magnitude dimensions (Qin et al, 2011) Second, because of the uncertainties embedded in the param= eter derivation process, sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the models reliability. Parameters that featured high uncertainties cor were related to system growth were selected and offset by +10%. ‘The resultant simulations of state variables in the model were compared with original ones to get sensitivity degree (SEN). The results obtained can help in identilying the parameters that ‘maximally affect the system behavior and thus they can potentially help guide the analysis of future scenarios (Susnile et al, 2012), Equations for M, E, and SEN are presented in Appendix A 31. Study area The Dianchi Lake watershed is located in Kunming City, the capital of Yunnan Province, in the southwestern part of China (Pig. 4). The total area of the watershed is 2920 km’, and it includes central Kunming City on the northern side of the lake and Cheng- ‘gong, Jinning, and Songming Counties. The watershed is the most developed area in Yunnan Province and its GRP in 2008 was 115 billion Yuan, which was 76.7% ofthe total GRP of Kunming. The lake6 A. eo! of Enaronmena Management 185 (2015) 23 oe Haigeng HE Dis (cacti HE is sity Watershed District (© Monitoring Sites Dam Fg Location of he Diane Lake watershed has helped substantially with the development of Kunming City, but the large amounts of discharge of domestic, industrial, agr cultural pollution and the exploitation of water resources, which hhave resulted from rapid development, have exceeded the capacity of the lake: thus, the water quality has been degraded and the lake hhas become one of the most severely eutrophic lakes in China ‘Water quality data obtained from 10 routine monitoring sites (ig. 4) in the national monitoring system indicated that the quality was lower than even the worst standard, Grade V. The main pollutant sources were urban domestic emissions and agricultural nonpoint emissions, Between 2000 and 2008, total pollution ‘increased slightly. Although pollution discharged by industries decreased because of technological improvements, pollution from, domestic emissions and nonpoint sources increased as a result of turban population growth and increased dependence on the use of fertilizers and pesticides in agriculture. In recent decades, national and local governments have taken strong measures to control water pollution within the watershed, and these measures have included rehabilitation projects, adjust- ‘ment of industrial structure and distribution, and construction of ‘wastewater treatment plants, An integrated model is required for simulating the complex processes that occur in the watershed and for assessing the effects of distinct strategic scenarios of watershed ‘management in order fo help guide future management efforts 32, Detailed settings of the model ‘To support the industrial structural adjustment strategy used for controlling the watershed's pollution. secondary industry was subdivided into 7 types based on their scale. water demand, and pollution discharge level Fi, 5). In addition to metal smelting and ‘manufacturing. tobacco production is a major industry in Kunming, and it involves a lower water demand and pollution discharge than Met meng and nia Fig. 5. Comparison of water demand and polaon dchage lees inthe 7 20> Aion of reconday inet The eee res nceate the out vae ele do other industries, ‘The main pollutants of concern in the Dianchi Lake watershed are COD, TN, and TP. Whereas COD is one of the pollutants whose {otal amount is controlled by the national government, TN and TP are key substances responsible for the eutrophication of the lake ‘The lake was separated into Caohai (north) and Waihai (south) by a ‘natural dam called Haigeng Dam (Fis. 4). Water quality in Caohai is ‘worse than that in Waihai because Caohai lies downstream of the downtown area and receives the majority of wastewater (sheng fe al, 2012). Because of this difference, the two parts of the lake seldom have water exchange, though a system of ship lock andtea una of Eirnmetal Managemen 1552015) 11-22 ” regulator was established on the dam in 1996 for navigation. Thus, the two basins were dealt with independently in the model. 3.3. Model inputs 3.3.1, Input variables ‘The historical dataset covered the 2000-2008 period. The GRPs of various industries were obtained from statistical yearbooks of Yunnan Province, Kunming City, Wuhua, Panlong, Guandu, Xishan, ‘Chenggong, and inning. Population and urbanization level were derived from the fifth national population census (2000) and the subsequent annually updated data Six major land use types, built- up land, cropland, forest, grassland, water, and unused land, were identified by interpreting remote sensing images in 2002 and 2008, and detailed cropland area, was also collected from statistical yearbooks. The coefficients of water demand, wastewater, and pollution discharge in various categories were obtained from the national pollution source census that was taken in 2007 and updated in 2008. ‘The GRP proportion of primary (GRPp). secondary (GRPs). and tertiary (GRPt) industries in Dianchi Lake watershed in 2008 was 2:44:54. The tertiary industry has developed rapidly in recent de- ‘cades and its proportion began to exceed that of secondaty industry in 2004: however, it remains at a low level, and wholesale and retail trade, catering, and accommodation are its main components. In recent decades, the water quality of Caohai has been lower than Grade V, whereas that of Waihai has fhictuated between Grades 1V and V, as assessed based on the Environmental Quality Standards for Surface Water (EQSSW) (MEPPRC, 2002). Water quality expec- tations set by government are being relaxed gradually, and the latest published goals are Grades V and IV in the case of C2ohai and ‘Waihai, respectively (MEPPRC, 2012), Coefficients determined for Urban and rural population are provided separately because they differ from each other substantially and can affect the system markedly through the urbanization process. Coefficients obtained for tertiary industry were calculated based on the urban popula- tion, Nonpoint source pollution discharged from cropland and Duit-up land was obtained from our previous Hydrological Simu- lation Program-Fortran modeling results. The values of key vari- ables and parameters are shown in Appendix & 332. Calibrated parameters ‘The calibrated parameters were growth rates and the elasticity coefficients between them. The 2000-2008 time series datasets showed fast growth in the GRP of secondary industry (average annual growth rate of 11.5%), whereas stable growth rates of 13% ‘and 0.5% were observed in total population and urbanization level (Fig. 6a), Elasticity coefficients were obtained by performing, Fegression analysis, and the results are shown in Table 1. As Paraneeer Regression uation Kinane Ow The selatinship between FWPO and GR2s i based on the data of ce wile Kuing Ci. ‘mentioned in Section 2.2, elasticity coefficients exist between the _growth rates of GRP and GRPs; and population and GRP. With the development of secondary industry, the water demand per output (FwPo) decreased and the relationship between the development and FWPO displayed a power function. Moreover, with the devel- ‘opment of the economy, the water quality of the lake decreased (Mg. 6b). Although an Environmental Kuznets Curve has been previously applied for describing the relationship between pollutant discharge and economic development (Crossman anc: Krueger, 1995), this relationship remains poorly quantified. There- fore, in our model, we used a table function developed based on historical data in order to determine how the growth rate of sec- ondary industry was affected by water environmental pressure. For the purpose of decision-making support, annual average water quality data obtained from routine monitoring sites in 2000-2008 were used for calibrating decay coefficients, and Caohai and Waihai were treated separately. Details ofthe SD model developed for the Dianchi Lake watershed are presented in Appendix C. 24, Scenarios design Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario was run for the petiod of 2008-2030, with the assumption that the socioeconomic devel- ‘opment pattern and the wastewater treatment capacity wll persist during the simulation period. Besides, three alternative manage- ‘ment scenarios were designed, based on the BAU results, to simu- late the effects of various management tools on water quality improvement. Scenario one (51) gave priority to adjustment in the spatial distribution of industries and the population. Considering the cir- cumstances of the extremely rapid industrialization and urbani- zation occurring in the watershed and the Kunming City as a whole, industties and the population would be gradually moved out of the watershed to Anning City and from the downtown to the sur- rounding suburban areas to alleviate pressures on the lake, espe- cially on Caobai, Thus, a 10% decrease of SI growth rate was applied, 20% of heavily polluted industries were designed to move out, and shares of regional population and industries within the Czohai Fig. 6 (a) Grows rates of saieconamie varbls during 2000-2006.) Change ef Diane Lake water quay and growth tate of secondary industry Kunming Cty* HL ea Joura of Environmental Managemen 155 (2015) 1223 subwatershed were adjusted in this scenario, Scenario two ($2) focused on the continuing construction of wastewater treatment plants and the guarantee of their regular operation. A progressive plan on construction of wastewater treatment facilities inthe long run was considered in $2. Six more ‘wastewater treatment plants would be constructed in 2020, and capacities of others would be improved; the total capacity would be double of the current one. Scenario three ($3) devoted attention to measures aimed at reducing nonpoint source pollution. Flower and vegetable cultiva- tion, which is well developed in the watershed because of climatic and soil conditions in this area, requires mote fertilizer use than does the cultivation of other field crops. Thus, adjustment of agri- cultural structures was applied, based on the local government's decision to gradually transfer cropland {© woodland from 2010 to 2013; simultaneously, fertilization quantity would decrease by 50% for wood production compared to crops 4, Results and discussion 41. Model validation and sensitivity analysis 411. Model validation ‘We validated our model by comparing the simulation results with the historical data collected between 2000 and 2008. Table 2 lists the maximal relative error (M) and normalized standard error (of system indicators, including GRP. P, UR. and pollutants load {nto Waihai, The M values range from 0.2% to 13.7% and the Evalues range from 0.04% to 40% Measured and simulated water quality indexes were aso compared, and this indicated thatthe simulation captured the changing trend of each pollutant (Fig. 7). In the so- cioeconomic context, an increase in wastewater treatment capacity reduced the pollutant load into the lake, especially in the Waihai part, which resulted in a general reduction in pollutant concen- ation, TN increased because of the lower treatment efficiency of TIN (G0%=702) as compared with that of COD and TP (approxi- ‘mately 90%), In the physical context, the spikes observed in the simulation can be attributed to the discharge change of the lake Overall, the validation results confirmed that the model can be used to simulate all the processes and interactions of the Dianchi Lake ‘watershed system. In this validation, the values of parameters used ‘were measured during the 2000-2008 period, and the values were nnotextrapolated from one period of observation into another era, as was necessary when we used the model for projecting future trends, Therefore, the errors obtained here shoul be considered the minimal values when applied to the projections. 412. Sensitivity analysis ‘We selected 16 parameters for conducting sensitivity analysis: four parameters were related to socioeconomic development rates, four were related to the urban population's water demand and pollutant discharge coefficients, two to the nonpoint source pollution from cropland, and six to the decay coefficients of the ‘Hee pollutants in Caohai ané Waihai, Fig 8 shows the deviation trends of four state variables (GRP, population, water demand, and WON) observed when the 16 parameters were offset by +10%. The «us otaine forthe made vere) varale MC ‘ake Pr eT? . 0802 TetNye 48 ‘curves obtained after each offset follow the trends of the original ‘ones, and the greatest deviations of the four state variables wer «caused by offsetting the four parameters Ecys. Fpjc, GRcaps. and ‘TNPCyp. The average degrees of sensitivity at 2020 and 2030 are shown in Table 3: The deviation in 2030 is larger than that in 2020, and a 10% change of these parameters led to maximal changes of 42% and 6.7% in 2020 and 2030, respectively, implying that the ‘mode! structure is robust 42. Scenario analysis 421, Socioeconomic development and water environmental pressure The current development strategy used for Kunming City is focused on not only the main urban area but also Anning City ‘which is located outside the watershed, These two core areas are expected to develop rapidly. In the case of the Dianchi Lake watershed, the GRP and total population can increase to as high as 712 billion Yuan (S2) (Fig. Sa) and 4.29 million persons ($1) in 2030, (Pig. 8b). Though 20% of heavily polluted industries were designed to move out in 51, the tertiary industries will grow faster, ac- counting for to 60% of GRP in 2030, and attract more population ‘due {0 the improvement of water quality compared to BAU sce- nario; the same condition happens in 52. However, this growth rate is lower than the rate measured for the 2000-2008 period because of the restricting effect exerted by the deteriorating water quality ‘Among the four scenarios, $3 has the most remarkable reduc- tion effect on water demand (32) and TN discharge (6%), mainly due to the decrease of cropland area (Fig, céed), However, wastewater discharge still increases because the volume of domestic sewage increases in proportion to the urbanization process, The discharge ‘quantities of COD, TN, and TP exhibit a similar increasing trend, although a slight decrease is observed in 2009 because of the ‘elimination of animal husbandry. The general trend is that water environmental pressure will become increasingly higher than before under the current development strategy. 422. Structure and spatial distribution of water environmental pressure ‘The sectors that contribute to water demand and wastewater and pollutant discharge include secondary industry (SD tertiary industry (TD). domestic use/discharge (DOM), livestock (LIV), agri- culture (AGR), and urban nonpoint sources (UNPs). Theit pro- pportions under four scenarios in 2008 and 2030 are shown in ‘Table 4, Domestic use, irigation, and secondary industry are the three main water consumption sectors. Because water is highly recycled and the wastewater discharge rate, which has an average value of 3.9% in secondary industry is low, the proportion of Sts a source of wastewater discharge is low. In our model, stormwater is not included in wastewater for the lack of reliable data. Therefore, domestic sewage is responsible for 90% of the total wastewater. Compared to 2008, ratios of DOM in 2030 have significant in- creases. The ratio of each category doesn't vary much among sce- narios, but obviously lower ratios of Sin $1 and of AGR in $3 canbe found, Domestic sewage is still the largest source of pollutants, and ‘nonpoint source pollution provides more than 20% ofthe TN and TP discharge (Table 4). Fertilizer in runoff from cropland in particular provides large amounts of Nand P, and the increase in construction land as a result of urbanization also brings increased amounts of| ‘urban nonpoint source pollution. Similarly, lower ratios of St in $1 land of AGR in $3 are observed in 2030. Moreover, the centralized distribution of the population in downtown areas brings roughly ‘one third of the pollutant discharge into the lake, even though its volume is considerably smaller than that of Wathai. Due to thecop inet Fig. 8. Devan wens of sate vasa in seni ‘Hi et oul of Enronmentl Management 1552015) 1122 20 Casha Cache caona i af) . s os ° ° 20) 3io2 uot 2006 aon” 2ouo bond 300d 3006 2008” 2am md oh mea 3 03 Wet Waal Waal ma aas ote fe grey ° < te 2 vs a, os ° ° 200 oud auo4 boos tous" 2000 aoe 2008 S006 zone 200. 0m) 200i 2000 2008 Measured Sima ie 7 Mead se ater quay inch Wb (200-208 i bu LB Is t Pe i J = 4 Bs . 7 Saez] > - i _ {he dished ies ndcate the manna deviation. spatial distribution adjustment taken in S1, ratio of pollutant in 42.3, Water quality ysis Each in cepteents te change of ech tate vale tained by leting one parameter by 1X Caohai part decreases, while that in $3 increases because the cropland is distributed mainly in Waihai subwatershed. Simulated WGI in Caohai and Waihai are shown in Fig. 10 Because of the uneven distribution of pollution discharges. the ‘water quality of Caohai is considerably worse than that of Waihai, and the quality is far below the desired Grade V quality. TheHL ea our of Environmental Managemen 155 (2015) 1223 TAs aetranterred TM ane T erlizesguanty per aes -CODgye New, 286 KF ahd eCOD ya, ETN Re TP ar deny een af COD, TN, ana T? e i se elimination of animal husbandry in the watershed in 2009 has substantially strong but short-term effects on improvement of water quality. Because socioeconomic development continues in the watershed and no additional pollution contol efforts are {implemented in BAU scenario, water quality continues to deterio- rate in the coming years. The three alternative management scenarios generally increase the total water quality under the same development level in 2030 as BAU scenario, but their detailed effects vary. As described in scenarios design, only a small portion of secondary industries is ‘moved out in I thus its effect cannot offset that ofthe total GRP growth shown in section 4.2.1. However, the spatial redistribution of industries and population from downtown to suburban area has significant effects, which results in better water quality than BAU in Caohai, whereas worse one in Waibai, Structural adjustment in agriculture (53) reduces water demand obviously, but it only has a slight effect on water quality improvement. Among the three AMS, construction of wastewater treatment plants (2) has the most effective effects in improving water quality in both parts of Dianchi Lake, indicating that matching wastewater treatment capacity is the most beneficial measure in the context of sustained develop- ‘ment in the watershed. In 2030, the COD, TN, and TP concentrations in Caohai are 52.5, 10, and 0.8 mg/L, while those in Waibai are 96, 112, and 0.08 mgit, which already teach the goal of Grade IV. 43, Discussion 43:1. Implications for watershed management ‘The model aims to provide guidance for watershed manage- ment, which can be achieved through tests of the model's own structure as well as scenario analysis. The results of sensitivity analysis show that the urban population's TN discharge per capita ‘most strongly affects WO, which indicates that controlling TN is a critical part of Dianchi Lake watershed management. This is reasonable, because strict measures have been implemented to control industrial pollution in China, and point source of COD discharge is under good control now; also the lower removal effi- ciency of TN than that of TP and COD makes it contribute mainly to the high WO. However, when simultaneously considering the ‘eutrophication control in the lake body, we should be prudent. On. the one hand, phosphorus control is imperative to contral eutro- phication, and solely reducing nicrogen cannot address the problem (Schindlet, 2012). Whether dual or single nutrient control for abating eutrophication is still debatable (Conley etal, 2009: Lewis fecal, 2011). On the other hand, the two parts of the lake show distinctly different eutrophication status (Fi. 7) of NJP ratio, andet foul of Environmental Mangement 15 2015) 1122 n FroporionsX) af varous ategoriesin water demand and wastewater and poltant oD eischarge 2008 3 10) 52 92 09 00 S22 123 153 00 90. 00 TN discharge 2008 14 122 681 $2155 80 a020 anv 40 28 Ta 00 toa 307 st 36 28 1 oo 95 110 S24) 28 718 00 103 i08 432, Model uncertainty Parameter uncertainty is common in simulation models. In the process of parameter calibration, wen a short time series of bi Totical data is used, relationships might not be revealed precisely. Moreover, because of the model setting of the annual step and the sub-watershed unit, all data were aggregated to match the tem- poral and spatial scale based on assuming spatiotemporal homo- _Beneity, which limits the accuracy of analysis, In running the model, uncertainty was also encountered regarding the effect of parame- change in the future because the watershed is undergoing rapid and unpredictable social and economic development. ‘Although reference information obtained related to other areas can help us estimate some of the parameters such asthe coefficients of wastewater and pollutant discharge, uncertainty still exists in the practical application of the model ‘Anovel aspect of our model is the coupling of the water quality, ‘model sector with socioeconomic sectors. The use of the annual step smoothened seasonal variability and this can be suitable at the strategic level in the long run. However, because the fate and transport processes of pollutants are complex, the simulation of water quality performed using a steady-state mass balance model is highly simplified; thus the resulting quantification might not be precise, In the future, models of lake water quality that are more complex than our model can be attempted t0 couple with socio- economic sectors based on our model, Moreover, with regards to Fig. 10, Sinalted WO in aah an Weis 2008~2030, this needs special attention in nutrient control strategies. Thus, the nitrogen contol identified in this study is needed to improve ‘overall water quality in Dianchi Lake and meet the Chinese water quality standards “The results of SD models can reveal the trends of system changes and the interactions among various subsystems. For example. re- sults of $1 showed high risks of degrading water quality of Waiha ‘which indicates that corresponding pollation control measures like wastewater treatment faclities construction should be imple- ‘mented concurrently in the new urban area and reconstruction of sewage collection facilities inthe old dovrntown area is an essential part in urban renewal. Moreover, because of the strong pressure ‘exerted by both the superior government and the public to improve lake water quality, the Kunming municipality government has scheduled 2 series of pollution control measures. The effects of various policy combinations can be assessed through scenario analysis using the model and thus provide guidance to policy ‘makers, However, the assessment should rely more on exploring the plausibility of assumptions, rather than making accurate pre- dictions (Kelly et al, 2013) the calibration of the parameters of the water quality sector, because monthly monitoring data were downscaled to annual average values in order to match the annual pollutant load, the calibrated paramerers Were not extrapolated for the purpose of validation. In the validation process, we used simulated pollutant loads obtained from other sectors of the model instead of measured loads in order to examine the model's ability to simulate the entire system; however, large uncertainties exist in the simulation of future changes. 5. Conclusions Integrated watershed management is a widely accepted prac- tice, and a critical part of this management involves performing 2 reliable system simulation of all the watershed processes. Because SD models can be used for describing the dynamic feedback re- lationships in a system, in this study, an integrated SD model was developed for managing lake water quality at watershed scale. The ‘model covers socioeconomic, water resource and pollution, and lake subsystems. Sectors of population and economics, water de- ‘mand and wastewater discharge, pollutant load, and water qualitya HL ea Jura of Enronmental Management 185 (2018) 1-23 are coupled in the SD model in order to express the interactions among the watershed's socioeconomic development, pollutant Toads, and water quality. ‘The model was applied to the Dianchi Lake watershed and the model was calibrated based on the historical data obtained from ‘the 2000-2008 period. Validation results and sensitivity analysis confirm the fidelity and reliability of the model. BAU scenario and three AMS on adjustment in the spatial distribution of industries and the population (S1), wastewater treatment capacity construc- tion (52), and structural adjustment in agriculture ($3), respec- tively, were simulated using the model. Results show continuous socioeconomic development and pollutant discharge increase in the following 22 years. Compared with BAU results, 1 relieves the pressures on Caohaifrom centralized population and industries but Teads to worse water quality in Waihai 53 has significant reduetion effects in water demand and polhutant discharge of agriculture. S2 hhas the most beneficial effects in improving water quality, and in the context of sustained development in the watershed, the COD, ‘IN, and TP concentrations in Caohai in 2030 are 52.5, 109, and (08 mg/L. while those in Waihai are 96,12, and 0.08 mg/L. These simulations can help assess the effects of various policies and provide support for decision making in lake water quality ‘management. ‘Acknowledgments This study was supported by the China National Water Pollution, Control Program (20132X07102-006), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No, 41222002), an Collaborative Innovation Center for Regional Environmental Quality. The authors would like to thank the editor and three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions that have improved the Quality of the paper significantly. ‘Appendix 1. Supplementary data ‘Supplementary data related to this article can be found at hi bx doc. org/10.10164)jenvman.2015.02.046, References alin A oT, dsc, Kaine, lston, N. 201A general water lsc pao tate OecaRsa Water Resor Mag 95), Bohn, BA, Kesher, JL, 2002 stabising aquatic restoration pris wing wiaterhed approach} Environ Manag 64 (4 995-36, conleyb). P08 i, Homa Rie desea DE Senger, SP Haves, KE. 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