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Impacts on Indian Economy by COVID-19

Md. Jahirul Islam

MBA-09, Roll No. 20919004

Course Code: BUS 8407

Army Institute of Business Administration (AIBA), Sylhet

Submitted To:

Dr. Munshi Naser Ibne Afzal

April 27, 2020

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The disease most widely discussed & panic by the new coronavirus initially identified in
Wuhan, China, has been named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) 'CO' stands for corona,
'VI' for a virus and 'D' for the disease. The disease caused by the virus influences each part of
human life from our wellbeing to the financial framework for all the cities in every country over
the world. As the resident of Asian subcontinent I would like to describe about my neighboring
country India has already detected COVID-19 positive cases about 28118 with 886 death where
about 207223 people has been died out of 3006506 positive cases over the world [CITATION WOR20
\l 1033 ]. Though the death rates are seemed lower comparatively others but its ongoing economic
crisis signaling a terrible catastrophe.

India has ~1.34 billion people which per capita income is about $2000, contrarily the
rich New York city contain about nine million people with $93000 per capita income which is
already concluded into economical downward and this are their highest economical downward
since world war II [ CITATION Man20 \l 1033 ]. So, how the situation would be faced by Indian
government & public can’t be predicted accurately. With this vast population as the preventive
actions through declaration of 21 days countrywide lockdown on March 24, 2020, by Indian
Prime Minister was very venturous & realistic though the economist expected to lose over Rs.
32000 corer ($4.5 billion) per day during this period [ CITATION Vic20 \l 1033 ].

According to NSSO data about 66% of working people meet their household necessaries
with agricultural products and about 18% contribution on national income was determined in
2008-2009 fiscal year (currently ~14%) which now under destroyed. Now farmers are passing
their lives with deep distress since they not being able to recover even the cost of cultivation.
About Rs. 13200 million rupees may will losses with low price of cultivated onion only [CITATION
20Fi \l 1033 ].

The information from Capitaline shows that toward the finish of the December 31, 2019,
retail speculators (financial specialists with up to Rs. 200,000 of interests in singular limit), held
Rs. 9.84 trillion as of interests in more than 3000 recorded on the trades. The worth had
contracted to Rs. 6.87 trillion as on April 3, 2020. Just effectively exchanged stocks were
considered for the investigation. In any case, those speculators that are confronting liquidity
mash with their different salaries sources under tension in continuous lockdown, will set aside
some effort to rebound, said Deepak Jasani, head-retail inquire about at HDFC protections
[ CITATION Bus20 \l 1033 ].
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The KPMG of India, has introduced three situations to clarify the financial contacts with
COVID-19. In this situation of speedy pulled back across globe by April-end to mid-May, the
report said "India's development for 2020-21 might be in the scope of 5.3 to b5.7 percent,
however this situation looks far off as of now". Besides, if India will ready to control COVID-19
spreading, however there is a critical worldwide downturn is required to be in the scope of 4.0 -
4.5 percent. Be that as it may, on the off chance that the pandemic multiplies and there is
worldwide downturn, at that point it would be a one-two punch for the economy as it should bear
the consumed of both residential and worldwide interest pulverization, KPMG report said.
"Drawn out lockdowns would compound monetary difficulties. India's development may fall
beneath three (3%) percent under this situation," it included. These development projections
contrast with an expected 5 percent development rate in 2019 – 2020 [ CITATION Bus201 \l 1033 ].

GDP Growth of india (annual

8.170
%) 9
7.410 7.996 7 8
7.168 6.811
9 5.241 5.456 6.386 6
4 5
6 3 3.000
2
31
0.000
0
ar 1] 2] 3] 4] 5] 6] 7] 8] ) )
ty ty
Ye 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 i li ili
R 2 R 2 R 2 R 2 R 2 R 2 R 2 R 2 si b s ib
[Y [Y [Y [Y [Y [Y [Y [Y os os
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 (P (p
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 0 20
-2 20
19 st
20 Po

Figure: GDP Growth of India (annual %) [ CITATION Wor20 \l 1033 ]

Real GDP (%)

8
6.4 6.6
6
Real GDP (%)

5.3 5.1
4.7 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.5
4 3.7
Real GDP (%)
2
0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
-1 2022
-2
Year

Figure: Real GDP of India [CITATION IMF20 \l 1033 ]

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For 2020 it is negative and it is like a V-shaped - a recession at least as bad as during the
global financial crisis or worse. The financial harm must be constrained by quick government
mediation to ensure employments and organizations, in addition to help for micro-creditors,
shoppers etc.

Bibliography

Bank, W. (2020). World Data Bank. World Bank.

Financial Times, I. (2020). Financial Times, India.

https://www.imf.org/, I. (2020). Real GDP (%). IMF.

Sabharwal, M. (2020, April 6). How Covid-19 is reordering the world of work.

Standard, B. (April 06, 2020). Coronavirus impact: Retail investors see Rs 3 trillion hit on investments. Business
Standard.

Standard, B. (April 06, 2020). India’s growth may slip below 3% in FY21 if coronavirus proliferates: KPMG. Business
Standard.

Vice Chairperson, A. H. (April 26, 2020). Fighting COVID-19 with facts not fear: How India can get back to work after
coronavirus lockdown. businesstoday, India.

WORLDOMETER. (April 27, 2020 at 4.00 pm). [LIVE] Coronavirus Pandemic: Real Time Counter, World Map, News.
USA: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.

THANK YOU