EFFECTS ON ENVIRONMENT AND SEA CREATURE.

Sea creatures, especially those that live in shallower water near the coasts, are much more

vulnerable to global warming than land animals, new research shows. The scientists found

that local populations of marine animals are disappearing at double the rate of land-based

species.

That's because marine animals like fish, crabs and lobster are already more likely to be living

near the threshold of life-threatening temperatures, and because in the ocean, there are fewer

places to hide from extreme heat. Ecosystems are in flux as rising temperatures affect where

animals can live and how they behave. And a new study suggests that some species are

feeling the heat more than others.

“Coastal and Marine Ecosystems & Global Climate Change” is the eighth in a series of Pew

Center reports examining the potential impacts of climate change on the U.S. environment. It

details the likely impacts of climate change over the next century on U.S. coastal and marine

ecosystems, including estuaries, coral reefs, and the open ocean.

Temperature changes in coastal and marine ecosystems will influence organism metabolism

and alter ecological processes such as productivity and species interactions. Species are

adapted to specific ranges of environmental temperature. As temperatures change, species’

geographic distributions will expand or contract, creating new combinations of species that

will interact in unpredictable ways. Species that are unable to migrate or compete with other

species for resources may face local or global extinction.

Changes in precipitation and sea-level rise will have important consequences for the water

balance of coastal ecosystems. Increases or decreases in precipitation and runoff may

respectively increase the risk of coastal flooding or drought. Meanwhile, sea-level rise will

gradually inundate coastal lands. Coastal wetlands may migrate inland with rising sea levels,

but only if they are not obstructed by human development.

Climate change is likely to alter patterns of wind and water circulation in the ocean

environment. Such changes may influence the vertical movement of ocean waters (i.e.,

upwelling and downwelling), increasing or decreasing the availability of essential nutrients

and oxygen to marine organisms. Changes in ocean circulation patterns can also cause

substantial changes in regional ocean and land temperatures and the geographic distributions

of marine species

Critical coastal ecosystems such as wetlands, estuaries, and coral reefs are particularly

vulnerable to climate change. Such ecosystems are among the most biologically productive

environments in the world. Their existence at the interface between the terrestrial and marine

environment exposes them to a wide variety of human and natural stressors. The added

burden of climate change may further degrade these valuable ecosystems, threatening their

ecological sustainability and the flow of goods and services they provide to human

populations.

Predictions of the effects of climate change on coastal and marine ecosystems are associated

with varying degrees of confidence. There is some confidence in predictions of how increases

in temperature will affect plant and animal physiology, abundances, and distributions; aquatic

oxygen concentrations; and sea level. There is also some confidence in predictions of the

effects of sea-level rise on shallow continental margins, including flooding of wetlands,

shoreline erosion, and enhanced storm surges. There is less confidence regarding

temperature’s influence on interactions among organisms, and even less as to its effects on

water circulation patterns. It is also difficult to predict the effects of climate change on

precipitation, wind patterns, and the frequency and intensity of storms.

CHAPTER: 4

ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS
T he world’s climate is changing, and it will continue to change throughout the 21st century

and beyond. Rising temperatures, new precipitation patterns, and other changes are already

affecting many aspects of human society and the natural world. Climate change is

transforming ecosystems on an extraordinary scale, at an extraordinary pace. As each species

responds to its changing environment, its interactions with the physical world and the

organisms around it change too. This triggers a cascade of impacts throughout the entire

ecosystem. These impacts can include expansion of species into new areas, intermingling of

formerly nonoverlapping species, and even species extinctions. Climate change is happening

on a global scale, but the ecological impacts are often local and vary from place to place.

To illuminate how climate change has affected particular species and ecosystems, this

booklet presents a series of examples that have already been observed across the United

States. Human actions have been a primary cause of the climate changes observed today.

Fortunately, though, humans are also capable of changing their behavior in ways that can

reduce the rate of future climate change and help wild species adapt to climate changes that

cannot be avoided. How we approach other human activities that affect ecosystems, such as

agriculture, water management, transportation, fishing, biological conservation, and many

other activities will influence the ways and the extent to which climate change will alter the

natural world—and the ecosystems on which we depend.

1. Sea Levels Are Rising Warmer temperatures not only cause glaciers and land

ice to melt (adding more volume to oceans) but also cause seawater to expand

in volume as it warms. The global average sea level rose by just under .07

inches per year during the 20th century, but that number has risen to .12 inches

per year since the early 1990s. Under a “business-as-usual” greenhouse gas

emissions scenario, models indicate that sea levels could rise 2 feet or more by

2100 compared to 1990 levels.

2. Changes Are Rippling Through the Water Cycle Climate change has complex

effects on water supply and demand. The seasonal rhythms of streams and

rivers have changed as winter precipitation falls increasingly as rain instead of

snow, and as earlier spring temperatures cause snow in the mountains to melt

earlier and faster. Climate change may mean that some places will experience

more days with very heavy rain; other places may see more frequent, intense,

and long-lasting droughts. Warmer temperatures also mean higher evaporation

rates and thirstier plants and people, increasing demands for water. A warmer

world will experience more precipitation on a global scale, but the changes

will not be the same everywhere. Projections indicate that on average dry

areas will tend to get drier, and wet areas will tend to get wetter.

3. The Ocean Is Acidifying Much of the carbon dioxide emitted by human

activity has already been taken up by the ocean, thus moderating the increase

of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. However, as carbon dioxide dissolves in

seawater, it forms carbonic acid, acidifying the ocean. Ocean acidification will

likely cause serious harm to such treasured marine organisms as corals,

lobsters, and sea urchins.

4. Climate Change Is Reflected in Extreme Weather It is considered very likely

that increasing global temperatures will lead to higher maximum temperatures,

more heat waves, and fewer cold days over most land areas. More severe

drought in some areas, combined with other factors, has contributed to larger

and more frequent wildfires.