Evan Arnett

Nate Hellmers

ENG 1201

1 May 2020

The Global Soon-To-Be Food Crisis

The coronavirus pandemic has brought multiple new experiences to many of us. If you

have been to a grocery store in the last few weeks, you may have experienced restrictions or even

shortages of foods. Dealing with this permanently would be a real hassle. What if I told you that

there is a great possibility of this occurring in the future for natural reasons? Current studies and

statistics show it is likely we will experience global food shortages by the year 2050 if significant

changes are not made. Global food security will be a difficult challenge in the future due to

population growth, climate trends, and freshwater shortages.

In recent years, many cannot think of a time that food shortage has been a serious issue.

The recent Coronavirus pandemic caused a hiccup in local food supplies; however this was

mainly due to stocking issues from grocery stores. After the stores were able to adjust their

inventories, food supplies returned close to normal and very few, if any, people are experiencing

issues obtaining food. Another time one may think of food security being an issue is the 2009

financial market crash where many Americans experienced unemployment or pay cuts. Even still

with this event, food was still accessible by means of government assistance and programs

regardless of the situation. Another major event that you may be familiar with is the Great

Depression. This event in history was the last time that Americans experienced major loss of

food security. Due to the terrible state of the financial market, many Americans had no jobs at all

and therefore could not afford foods. Droughts during this time made matters worse, with many
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farms unable to grow crops from the lack of water required. The affected Americans had to

resort to “stretching” their meals by means of adding in cheap ingredients to main dishes.

One thing we, as Americans, have not seen in our lifetimes is a lack of food due to supply

shortages. Food security is defined as the state of having reliable access to a sufficient quantity

of affordable, nutritious food. In past times, the only struggle that we have witnessed is due to

unreliable access due to financial reasons. A struggle with food security due to sufficient

quantity has not been witnessed before, and experts are predicting that could be the reality of the

future based on current conditions.

A frequently discussed topic in the agriculture world is what the future will look like. At

the current moment, 40% of the United States is used as farmland. Concerns over population

growth and land usage in the united states are arising as farms will need to produce more food

for the increasing population. This is not just a growing concern for the United States alone.

Countries all over the globe are looking at the same issues. Densely populated countries and

countries with minimal farmland/food production will be looking at increasing their food imports

from countries that are able to provide the necessary foods. Some countries around the world

simply do not have the means to produce their own food. They may be lacking the technology or

climate to produce what they need, and therefore they will require larger food imports as well to

sustain an increasing population.

Global population growth is the main concern for global food security of the future. This

is a factor that is out of the control of governments and/or governing bodies for the vast majority

of the world. It is estimated that the global population will increase to 9.7 billion by the year

2050, up from 7.7 billion currently. This is a major increase in not a lot of time. One thing to

note is that the percentage of global population growth rate has been decreasing since 1962.
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Although this percentage is decreasing, the population growth numbers are still increasing at a

higher rate due to a larger population than the peak time.

Population growth brings about multiple issues for food security. One issue is land

requirements. When the global population grows, more land will be needed for civilization. For

example, due to a larger population, more factories producing goods will be needed, more stores,

more living areas, etc. This all results in new land developments that will be placed in current

open areas, or may even replace some farming areas. To produce larger quantities of food for the

new population growth, more farmland will be needed. Some areas around the world that are

densely populated are already experiencing land shortages, and many more are projected to in

the future.

Crop and food production can be increased in two ways. The basic way for production to

be increased is by means of making the farm larger by increasing field sizes/areas, i.e. increasing

the land requirement. But what if that is not an option due to the restrictions mentioned above? If

more developments are made near farmlands, it makes it difficult for the farm to expand as they

can no longer purchase or rent that land for farm use to increase production. If a physically larger

farm is not an option, the crop yield can be optimized. Crop yield is the measurement of the

amount of agricultural production harvested per unit of land area. To increase the amount of

crop, or food, produced by the farm while keeping the land size the same, the crop yield must be

increased. This is not an easy task. Crop yield is increased through very careful, strategic

management of the crop’s conditions. It is usually expensive and difficult to greatly optimize

crop yield since it is done through the usage of high-tech measurement, farming equipment,

irrigation, and drainage systems. Looking at the history of global crop yields, it is seen that

yields have dramatically increased. However, studies still show that at current crop yield increase
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rates, there will not be enough food by the year of 2050 unless something drastically changes. It

is estimated that the current food production will need to increase 70% by the year 2050 to keep

the same level of global food security that the world currently has.

Arguments can be made against the idea of population growth causing food security

issues. One major argument is that global diets are changing and will alleviate the strain on food

production. A common change in diets in well-developed country is switching to a more plant-

based diet. Crop production and livestock are vastly different food industries. While crops are

grown in fields, within tight proximity, livestock are unable to be raised this way. For this

reason, livestock require a much larger area of land to raise as opposed to growing crops that

would support a plant-based diet. The agricultural land requirement for a person with a plant-

based diet is smaller than that of someone with a diet utilizing meat sources such as livestock.

While this could be a solution to the problem, current developing countries are not showing the

same diet trends. It is predicted that developing countries that are gaining wealth will begin to

consume more meat sources as they begin to afford them. This will keep livestock needs level

and will not allow those lands to be converted to croplands.

Another main concern that threatens global food security is climate change and

invariability. As mentioned above, the droughts seen during the great depression forced many

farmers to sell their farms as they were no longer profitable. Scientists are predicting major

weather changes in the future that can bring about issues for food production and therefore

threaten global food security. A clear trend shown over recent history is global warming.

Whether that is caused by humans or natural weather change is a different debate, but the trend

still exists. Warming temperatures pose different challenges to food and crop production. One

major challenge is water requirements. In warmer temperatures, more water evaporates from the
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crop and the soil it is planted. This increases the water requirements for the crop, placing more

strain on farms to water their crops and placing more strain on water sources. Agriculture in the

united states accounts for approximately 80% of the nation’s water usage, with that number

reaching 90% in western, dry states. Major increases in water requirements for agriculture usage

means the nation’s total freshwater water requirement would soar, posing many challenges that

would need dealt with.

Another issue climate change brings about is melting glaciers. This does not seem like a

problem for agriculture, right? Although the United States does not utilize melting glaciers as a

water source, many countries do. In the past, these glaciers would form over winter months.

When temperatures began to rise, during crop planting season, the glaciers would slowly melt,

providing a freshwater source to areas on and near the mountains. In recent years, it has been

observed that the size of these glaciers is shrinking. Looking into the future, it is a possibility

they may melt off completely, eliminating the freshwater source that farmers had been utilizing

for their crops. This would require a massive infrastructure change for these areas and pose the

major challenge of delivering enough freshwater to these mountainous areas.

Have you ever gone out on a hot day and quickly finished the water that you thought

would be enough? This is a natural occurrence. As temperatures rise, most living beings also

need to consume more water to maintain their health. Increasing climate temperatures will

increase the required consumption of water by not only plants/crops, but also animals, including

livestock, and people.

Climate change is also showing other impacts that threaten global food security. A trend

that has been witnessed by the United States is an increase in natural disaster weather events.

Events such as tornadoes and hurricanes can destroy food sources during growing season.
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Another natural disaster that poses the largest threat is drought. A study by NASA reviewing

climate trends since the 1200s reveals that it is likely we will experience what is called a

megadrought within the next 50 years. The study looked at trends in old tree rings showing

weather habits. NASA used this information, along with samples of current tree rings, to predict

that there is a 40% chance we will see a drought lasting at least 10 years by the year 2050. This

will be devastating to food production and force change upon us if it occurs.

The final main reason that global food security will be a future issue revolves around

freshwater shortage. Due to factors such as warming climates, increased population, and

increased industrial use, freshwater shortages will become a major issue in the near future. Why

is freshwater shortage an issue? Agriculture relies on a plentiful freshwater source to ensure

sufficient crop yields, among other reasons. As stated above, agricultural uses account for 80%

of the water usage in the United States. Crops, similar to many other living beings, are sensitive

to salt water. Salt content in water, known as salinity, has a negative affect on crop yields. If

standard salt water is used to water crops, most would become damaged and crop yields would

plummet to 0. Most crops grown in the United States will not tolerate brackish water sources for

watering either, as these sources have water with too high of salinity. This leaves farms no other

choice but to use freshwater sources.

Looking beyond the global population growth projections and increased agricultural

watering requirements, many areas in the United States are predicting freshwater shortages, or

even deal with the issue currently. In fact, it is predicted by 2071 that half of the United States

204 major water basins will not sustain estimated water usage. Although 2071 is 51 years away,

many of these water basins are projected to decline before then, some as soon as 10 years from

now. Agriculture depends on these water basins as their source for freshwater. If they do not
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exist, other methods of accessing water will have to be utilized or crop yields will be

significantly reduced, possibly eliminated. When crop yields are reduced and/or eliminated, the

problem of food shortage arises. The trend in water shortage is not solely limited to the United

States, as many other countries are facing the same issues or are predicted to face the same issues

as the United States. This translates to global freshwater issues, and in turn, places more strain on

global food production and supply.

Figure 1: Global Water Stress Map

The world is constantly changing and adapting to new times. One thing that becomes

apparent when reading about predicted futures is that there are many concerns. Concerns can

range from infrastructure, climate changes, natural resources, population growths, and many

more. Global food security happens to be one of these concerns, and it is clear it will become a
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difficult challenge to overcome for mankind in its entirety. Rises in population, climate change,

and freshwater resources will threaten global food security in the future and will prompt many

changes to be put in place. Although I think it is a difficult challenge to overcome and will not

have simple solutions, I believe, just like the current Coronavirus pandemic, that the world will

all come together and find ways to fight it off and fix the problems.

Works Cited
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Cole, Steve, and Leslie McCarthy. “NASA Study Finds Carbon Emissions Could Dramatically

Increase Risk of U.S. Megadroughts.” NASA, 12 Feb. 2015,

www.nasa.gov/press/2015/february/nasa-study-finds-carbon-emissions-could-

dramatically-increase-risk-of-us.

How to Feed the World 2050. FAO, 2019,

http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/Issues_papers/HLEF2050_Global_Agr

iculture.pdf.

Food and Agriculture: Securing the Future.” OECD Observer, Mar. 2010, pp. 17–

21. EBSCOHost, https://eds-b-ebscohost-com.sinclair.ohionet.org/eds/detail/detail?

vid=4&sid=a5bde350-46a3-4040-a99f-c14c790128d6@pdc-v-

sessmgr05&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWRzLWxpdmU=#db=edb&AN=51303155.

Hrozencik, Aaron. “Irrigation & Water Use.” United States Department of Agriculture, 23 Sept. 2019,

www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-practices-management/irrigation-water-use/.

Brown, Thomas. Adaptation to Future Water Shortages in the United States Caused by Population

Growth and Climate Change. 2019,

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2018EF001091.