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TrinTick PDF
TrinTick PDF
Greg Capra
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3
Combining Support and Resistance,
Market Internals, Trends and Price
Patterns for high probability trades.
4
TREND TRADE PLAN
The Plan for trading the mini-sized Dow (YM)
Money Management 5
SUPPORT and RESISTANCE
Actual Support and Resistance
Prior price highs and lows, e.g., pivots
7
SUPPORT and RESISTANCE
Breakout failures
When price support have “shock value”
(demand) and resistance that overcome demand
(supply) are in a range,
trend trading does not work.
Void
Distance
Void
8
SUPPORT and RESISTANCE
Retracement levels, moving averages,
and/or trendlines did not stop this move lower.
13
NYSE TICK
TICK staying well above zero and
New high and extreme!
moving to extremes, very bullish.
Breakouts in YM should go
higher after a pullback!
TICK Support
14
NYSE TICK
Resistance at extremes. Don’t sell or sell short based on this information alone!
HLs
LLs
Below -600 to -1000, very bearish.
While bounces do occur from
-1000, avoid longs, unless climactic.
HH-HL TICK, environment changing
16
YM & NYSE TICK
TICK extremes can indicate a bottom, as well as
confirm an upward move.
17
THE TRIN
TRIN Guidelines:
Readings above 1.00 indicates more volume is associated with declining stocks.
Readings below 1.00 indicate more volume is associated with advancing stocks.
A TRIN rising from 1.2 towards 2.0 indicates a more bearish market than one
rising from .55 to 1.0. Declining from 1.2 to .50 is a more bullish environment than
one declining from 2.3 towards 1.5. A sideways TRIN is associated with its level.
While a Rising trend is Bearish and a Declining trend is Bullish. This guide
alone can be incomplete; therefore, a deeper understanding of the TRIN is needed.
18
NYSE TRIN
YM’s range contracts once ing
l
YM and TRIN are in sync. fal
I N
T R
g,
si n
Ri
Sideways, TRIN rising. YM
Range expands after YM
Note wide range bars
is rising for two hours!
Below 1,
but rising
19
NYSE TRIN
This chart tells us that the
market can rise while the
TRIN is rising, so there must
be more to this indicator.
TRIN is below 1, so
bullish, but rising
bearish. Volume is
increasing into TRIN below 1 and flat to declining.
decliners. Bullish, but this does not truly give a
complete picture of the environment.
20
THE TRIN
The A-D line does not consider how much each stock has
moved or how much volume is associated with advancers or
decliners, so its information is not complete.
A declining A-D line indicates the number stocks declining vs. advancing is increasing
The higher an A-D line rises, the more bullish. Values above + 500 are decisive
The lower an A-D line falls, the more bearish. Values below - 500 are decisive
26
ADVANCE – DECLINE LINE
28
ADVANCING – DECLINING VOLUME
A declining A-D Vol. line indicates advancing vol. vs. declining vol. is decreasing
Readings greater than + or – 200000k, and trending are ideal for a trend to continue
30
ADVANCING – DECLINING VOLUME
els
ev
hl
lis
ul
yb
erv
at
ly
pid
ra
ng
si
Sideways at a bullish level.
Ri
Maintain a bullish bias, but be open to change
if internals and YM’s trend suggest change.
31
ADVANCING – DECLINING VOLUME
Bearish, but at a neutral level.
Check other internal gauges for guidance.
32
ADVANCING – DECLINING VOLUME
33
COMBINING MARKET INTERNALS
Conflict
Agreement
NYSE TICK
A-D Line
34
COMBINING MARKET INTERNALS
Conflict
Agreement
NYSE TICK
A-D Line
35
COMBINING MARKET INTERNALS
TICKS 0 to +1000 with many TICKS 0 to -1000 with many TICKS between - 600 to + 600,
ticks + 600 to + 1000 are key ticks - 600 to - 1000 are key or oscillating in that area.
TRIN declining, ideally below TRIN rising, ideally above TRIN sideways, ideally
1.0, or sideways below .50 1.0, or sideways above 1.2 between .90 to 1.05
A-D line rising, ideally above A-D line falling, ideally below A-D line sideways, ideally
+ 500 - 500 between – 500 to + 500
A-D Volume rising, ideally A-D Volume falling, ideally A-D Volume sideways, ideally
above + 200000 below - 200000 between - 200000 to + 200000
These are ideal scenarios, and they can and do occur. But realize
that there are many combinations of levels and trends.
Experience will teach how to combine and interpret them.
36
DEFINING a TREND and TREND CHANGES
If there is a “Void” of price reference points (support – resistance), the odds are
high that a trend will develop when market internals are supporting.
By simply monitoring pivotal price points, as the market forms them, we can
objectively follow the market’s trend.
This method will also signal trend changes in the time frame being viewed.
37
DEFINING a TREND and TREND CHANGES
?
All price pivot lows begin with
higher low (HL) bars adjacent to
HL
HL HL both sides of the “pivot bar.”
?
It cannot happen any other way!
38
DEFINING a TREND and TREND CHANGES
How did it make you feel, think and what did you do? 40
DEFINE A PRICE PATTERN
Breakout Failure
Breakout Failure
Breakdown Failure
signals a buy with bullish
trend and internals.
When those pictures tell you that others have been caught on the wrong side of
the trend and market internals, you have an opportunity to take advantage of it.
Odds of similar patterns repeating an outcome in exactly the same way are low.
Accept the fact that you do not know what will happen next.
The odds will be on your side, if you have a method of trading that you have
internalized, have confidence in – and, of course, have the discipline to follow. 43
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