NCOC Update

3rd May, 2020

Daily Deaths
Deaths / 1M Population

Pakistan
 30-day Comparison of estimated mortality
Transport Deaths vs. Covid-19

Deaths caused Projected

by transport deaths caused
injuries by Covid-19
(current
average)
Notes: Annual mortality data from http://www.healthdata.org/pakistan. Seasonality adjustments have not been made
Economic Burden of Restrictions
Impact on Revenue:
● FBR collections down 37% in April from March. Rs 119 Billion.

Impact on Poverty:
● The number of people living below poverty line may increase from between 21 million (best case) to 71
million (worst case scenario). Source PIDE

Impact on Unemployment and Businesses

● In case of a prolonged lockdown, the number of layoffs may rise to 18.65 Million. Source PIDE
● Close to a million SME’s not able to survive a month long lockdown based on the existing cash flows. Source
SDPI.
Economic Burden of Restrictions
“Many more workers in poor countries Nearly 6.9 Million households claim to have
reduced the number or size of meals for some
are self-employed or in the informal family members to cover their household’s
sector and depend on daily wages to basic needs
feed their families. In the absence of
strong social protection and insurance,
the cost imposed by social (and
economic) distancing may be large in
terms of immediate deprivation and
hunger.” Yale: Should Low-Income Countries Impose the Same
Social Distancing Guidelines as Europe and North America to Halt the
Spread of COVID-19?
What is the binding constraint for removal of restrictions

Capacity Current Utilization

ICU Beds Total 4,911 (1,500 for 132

Covid-19)

Ventilators 1400 Available for Covid-19, 35

NDMA pipeline for May: 300;
for June: 600
What do we need to keep doing as we ease restrictions

● Social and Behavioural Change

● Healthcare system capacity build-up

● Indigenization
What do we need to keep doing as we ease restrictions
Lab Optimization - Testing Strategy and Capacity
9164
Province Functional Labs Testing Cap
ICT 9 2356
5540
Punjab 21 5410
Sindh 11 4500
Bln 2 376
KP 7 1638
GB 2 240
2000
AJK 3 188 472
Total 55 14708
100

2 May

With new approved Pooling Strategy for main labs testing capacity can be enhanced further
What do we need to keep doing as we ease restrictions:
Track & Trace Mechanism
Accurate data
through Provincial IT
Sys

• Close contacts, family & friends & random contacts (PIPs) are traced as per
track and trace mechanism
• Distt/Teh RRTs approach PIPs and arrange tests
• Quarantine / isolation are executed as per requirement
How is the world handling lockdowns?
Relaxations in Lockdown: Europe

27510
489
3
7765 6736

24594

12
28236
24824

Most of Europe is Opening up