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Edelwesis Budget Highlights PDF
Edelwesis Budget Highlights PDF
● Tax Revenue Shortfall against Budget estimates for FY20 is expected to be INR 2.9 trillion. Tax Revenue Growth of 12%
YoY for FY21 is in line with Nominal Budget Growth at 10%.
● Receipts from Disinvestment proceeds is expected to be INR 650 billion of which INR 180 billion has been achieved.
Disinvestment target for FY21 is budgeted at INE 2.1 trillion of which proceeds from LIC and IDBI is expected to be INR
900 billion. Also, rollover of proposed selling stake in BPCL, Shipping Corp could be helpful in reaching the targets. In
nutshell, achieving disinvestment targets is key to meet fiscal deficit target in FY21.
● On the expenditure front, the biggest takeaway is FY20 expenditure at INR 26.9 trillion, higher than street estimates
and in line with our expectations. For FY21, the expenditure growth is budgeted at 13%. Capex is expected to grow at
18% in FY21- higher than last 5 year average of 10%. This also reflects positively on quality of expenditure.
● Interest Payments, Capex, Pension, Aid to State Government are likely to account for change in expenditure growth in
FY21. On the other side, allocation towards subsidies expenditure has been lowered in both FY20 and FY21 indicating
growing debt of FCI. IEBR continue to remain high at 3.5% of GDP versus 2.5% of GDP
● Despite the higher fiscal deficit, Gross Market Borrowing remains unchanged at INR 7.1 trillion. Therefore, pressure on
GSECs will be muted. Reliance on Borrowing from Small Saving Fund continue.
2
Budget Maths
(INR bn) FY19 FY20 (BE) FY20RE FY21BE FY20 YOY FY21 YoY Remarks
Net Revenues 16,656 20,825 19,224 22,460 15 17
Gross Tax Revenue 20,804 24,612 21,634 24,230 4 12 Tax revenue growth is justified
Direct Tax 11,365 13,350 11,700 13,190 3 13
Corporation tax 6,635 7,660 6,105 6,810 -8 12
Income tax 4,730 5,690 5,595 6,380 18 14
Indirect tax 9,382 11,262 9,934 11,040 6 11
GST** 5,815 6,633 6,122 6,900 5 13 GST estimates are rational
States share at 30% and 32% of Gross Tax
Less: To States & Union Territories & NCCF 7,632 8,117 6,587 7,870 -14 19
Revenue
Net tax revenues 13,172 16,495 1,504 1,635 -89 9
Non tax revenues (incl dividend, interest) 2,357 3,132 3,455 3,850 47 11
INR 900 bn from incremental divestments
Non-debt capital receipts (incl divestment) 1,127 1,198 816 2,249 -28 176
of PSBs and financial enterprises
Revenue expenditure 20,074 24,478 23,510 26,320 17 12
Interest Payments 5,862 6,604 6,251 7,082 7 13 Interest Payments being major driver
Subsidies 2,229 3,389 2,636 2,621 18 -1 Subsidies have been rationalized
Food 1,019 1,842 1,086 1,155 7 6
Fertilizer 705 799 799 713 13 -11
Interest on Subsidies 226 250 259 281 15 8
Income Support Scheme 200 750 543 750 172 38
MGNREGA 610 600 710 615 16 -13 Increase in allocation in FY20
Capital Expenditure 3,077 3,385 3,480 4,120 13 18
Total Expenditure 23,151 27863 26,990 30,440 17 13 Healthy Expenditure growth maintained
Fiscal deficit -6,495 -7,038 -7766 -7,980
Fiscal % of GDP -3.4% -3.3% -3.8% -3.5%
Nominal GDP# 190112 211006 204442 224894 7.5 10.0 Nominal GDP for FY21 at 10%
3
RECEIPTS
4
Direct Taxes Estimates Seem Realistic
Income Tax Collections Growth in line with historical average Corporate Tax Collections Too Achievable
30.0 7000 35
IDS 1 and 2
30
25.0 6000
Corporate Tax Cut
25
5000
20.0 20
INR Billion
4000
% YoY
15.0 15
% YoY
3000
10
10.0
2000
5
5.0 1000 0
0.0 0 -5
FY20RE
FY21BE
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
-10
FY20RE
FY21BE
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
Income Tax Gross Collections Income Tax- YoY
10 Year Averge Growth Corporate Tax Collections NSE 500 PBT Growth
● Income Tax Buoyancy of 2.8 is in line with historical averages. Income taxes collections had shot up post Income
Declaration Scheme 1 and 2 increasing compliance. The growth has normalised post that. For FY20, Income tax growth
is projected at 18%, which could be a little on the higher end.
● Corporate Tax collections is expected to grow at healthy 11.5% as Corporate Profitability revives. Historically, dent
from tax rate cuts normalize a year after and therefore the numbers are largely in line.
5
Tweak In Income Tax Rates A Nudge Towards DTC
6
Disinvestments Targets To Boost Revenue
Disinvestments To Be The Key Needle Mover For Revenues
2100 2100
1100
1050 pegging disinvestment receipts
at INR 2100 bn, of which INR
650 900bn is expected to be from
600 disinvestments in PSBs and
Financial enterprises. Few large
deals such as BPCL, LIC IPO could
help GoI achieve this number
100
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21BE
-400
Achieved Disinvestments Budgeted Disinvestments
7
Expenditure – Robust Growth
8
Growth In Expenditure Higher Than The Nominal GDP
Expenditure Growth Healthy Ratio of Revenue To Capital Expenditure shows improvement in
16 quality
16 18
15 17
15 16
14 15
%
14 14
%
13 13
13 12
12 11
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
RE BE 10
Expenditure (% GDP)-RHS FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
RE BE
Capex/Revex
• Expenditure Growth of 16% in FY20 and 13% in FY21 is above the past 5 year average of 10% and Nominal GDP
growth for the respective years, indicating government’s intent to not cut expenditure drastically, amidst the
slowdown.
• Also, Quality of Expenditure hasn’t been compromised. Capex has pegged a growth of 18% for FY21, higher than the
last 5 year averages.
*Source: Budget Documents, Edelweiss Professional Investor Research
9
Expenditure on Salaries and Pensions Witnesses An Uptick
Significant Uptick In Outlay Of Salaries and Pensions
3.5
2.5
INR Trillion
1.5
0.5
0
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 BE FY20 RE FY21 BE
Salaries Pensions
• Expenditure on Salaries and Pensions are expected to grow 28% YoY and 14% YoY respectively. There are about 3.5
million Central Government Employees and increase in pay and allowances could spur consumption.
10
Interest Costs See A Jump
Interest Payments See a Sharp Rise
25% 7.0%
6.0%
20%
5.0%
15%
4.0%
% GDP
% YoY
3.0%
10%
2.0%
5%
1.0%
0% 0.0%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 RE FY21 BE
• With Debt to GDP at about 69%, interest payments account for about 3.2% of GDP.
11
Expenditure On Key Rural And Social Schemes Maintains The Pace
Interest Payments See a Sharp Rise
FY2019
Scheme FY17 FY2018 RE FY20 BE FY20 RE FY21BE
A
INR BN
MGNREGA
482 552 611 600 710 600
Fertilizer Subsidy 663 665 701 800 799 713
Food Subsidy 1000 1000 1000 1000 1086 1155
Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna (PMAY) 210 312 264 259 253 275
Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojna 179 169 155 190 140 195
Interest Subsidy for Short Term Credit to Farmers 134 130 150 180 178 211
Crop Insurance Scheme 111 94 130 140 136 156
Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojna 51 66 83 95 78 111
National Social Assistance Progam 89 87 89 92 92 91
National Rural Drinking Water Mission 60 70 55 100 100 115
National Health Mission 229 320 312 336 342 341
Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojna 30 50 38 41 41 45
Income Support Scheme - 200 750 543 750
Total 3,237 3,515 3,787 4,582 4,498 4,758
As % of Total Expenditure 16.4% 16.4% 15.4% 16.4% 16.7% 15.6%
As % of Nominal GDP 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1%
Total Exp 19752 21420 24572 27863 26990 30440
Nominal GDP 153624 170950 190102 204422 204359 224794
12
Subsidies Have Been Rationalized
Expenditure on Subsidies See a Downward Revision Sharp Contraction in Revised and Budgeted Food Subsidies
30% 3.0%
2000
25% 1800
2.5%
20% 1600
1400
15% 2.0%
1200
INR Billion
10%
1.5% 1000
5%
800
0% 1.0% 600
0
-15% 0.0%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 RE BE
RE BE
• Food Subsidies continue to be drastically lower than the budgeted indicating FCI debt is here to stay.
13
Sources of Borrowing
14
Sources Of Borrowing
Gross Market Borrowings Constant In FY20 Despite Increase In As Borrowings From Small Savings Increase
Fiscal Deficit 2.50
8.00
2.00
7.50
7.00
1.50
INR Trillion
INR Trillion
6.50
1.00
6.00
5.50 0.50
5.00
0.00
FY20RE
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20BE
FY21BE
FY20RE
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20BE
FY21BE
Gross market borrowings Gross fiscal deficit
Receipts from small savings, PPF and deposit scheme-RHS
• Since Gross Market Borrowings have been maintained at INR 7. 1 lakh cr, same as budgeted, the incremental pressure
on GSEC yields will be muted.
*Source: Budget Documents, Edelweiss Professional Investor Research
15
In Conclusion
• Maintaining of healthy expenditure numbers, coupled with a pickup in Capital Expenditure is positive.
Historically, expenditure growth higher than Nominal GDP has been positive for markets.
• Despite the fiscal slippage, Gross Market Borrowings have not increased and are same as budgeted INR
7.1 trillion. Therefore, incremental pressure on GSECs will be muted. With RBIs Open Market Operations
and ‘Operation Twists’, GSECs could continue to head downwards.
• The income tax tweak is a nudge towards DTC but does not materially benefit the taxpayer.
Consequently, the total hit to the fisc at INR 400 billion could be much lesser
• The budget has laid the path for FY21. However, like the past year, more reforms will be expected in
subsequent announcements.
16
Key Announcements
17
Dividend Distribution Tax Is Removed
Buybacks and Dividends Are A Factor Of Taxes • Currently, when companies pay dividend, they are
250000
required to pay Dividend Distribution Tax (DDT) on the
dividend paid at the rate of 15% plus applicable
surcharge and cess.
NHAI’s budgetary spend maintained at higher level Outlay for Rural roads has seen significant jump of 39% in FY21E
120,000
19,500
100,000
16,862
15,414
80,000 14,070
60,000
40,000
20,000
19
Railways And Urban Infra Got Required Attention
Capital Outlay on Central Railways rose by 3% in FY21E Budget AMRUT & SMART City Capital Outlay in expected to increase in
180,000
FY21E
16000
160,000
14000
140,000
120,000 12000
100,000 10000
80,000
8000
60,000
40,000 6000
20,000 4000
0
2000
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 (R) FY21 (B)
0
Budgetary allocation (INR cr) IEBR (INR Cr) FY18 FY19 FY20 (R) FY21 (B)
20
Higher Spending On Housing And Urban Infra To Benefit Cement Demand
Outlay for PMAY surged by 9% YoY in FY21E Metro Projects outlay remained flat remained elevated
35,000 19,000
18,500
30,000
18,000
25,000 17,500
17,000
20,000
16,500
15,000
16,000
10,000 15,500
15,000
5,000
14,500
0 14,000
FY18 FY19 FY20R FY21B FY18 FY19 FY20R FY21B
21
Sectoral Impact
Sector Key Announcements Winners/Losers
Revision in Income Tax slabs Positive for Hero Moto Corp, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor and Maruti Suzuki
Allocation for under FAME increased to INR 693 cr from Positive for OEMs involved in manufacturing of EVs (Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor,
INR 500 cr Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors and M&M)
Automobile
CBU Commercial Evs (25% to 40%)
SKD of Electric PV, 3W (15% to 30%)
Positive for OEMs involved in manufacturing of EVs (Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor,
SKD of Electric Bus, Trucks and 2W (15% to 25%)
Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors and M&M)
CKD of Electric vehicles in PVs, Bus, Trucks, 2W and 3W
categories (10% to 15%)
Medical Devices
Import cess Domestic players, no major listed players
22
Sectoral Impact
Sector Key Announcements Winners/Losers
Anti dumping duty on Purified Terephtalic Acid (PTA) This could have a marginally negative impact for domestic producers.
originating from PRC, Indonesia, Taiwan, Iran, Malaysia, However, this will potentially benefit players in downstream industries of
Korea RP and Thailand is being removed PTA - like in textiles and packaging films (BOPP and BOPET).
Chemicals
BCD moved upwards to 7.5% for following chemicals - Positive for Carbon Black manufacturers like Phillips Carbon Black Ltd,
Carbon Black, Sulphur, Hydrogen, Ammonia, Halogens, Himadri Speciality Chemicals Ltd, and synthetic rubber manufacturer
polymers of styrene, ethylene and propylene Apcotex Ltd
23
Sectoral Impact
Sector Key Announcements Winners/Losers
In order to boost supply of affordable housing, tax holiday
is provided on profits earned by the developers on Winners - L&T Finance, Piramal Enterprises, LIC housing Finance
projects approved as affordable by March 31, 2021.
NABARD refinance scheme: Agri credit target at INR 15 lac
cr up from INR 12 lac cr. Beneficial for agri credit giving Winners - M&M Finance, L&T Finance, PSU Banks
NBFCs.
To provide liquidity to stressed NBFCs, govt had
formulated partial credit guarantee scheme. To further
this support of providing liquidity, a mechanism would be Winners- Most of the NBFCs/HFCs
devised. Government will offer support by guaranteeing
securities so floated.
Govt. to divest partial stake in LIC via IPO
Financial Sector
NA
24
Sectoral Impact
Sector Key Announcements Winners/Losers
Proposed change in personal income tax, substantial tax benefit will
Consumption accrue to a taxpayer depending upon exemptions and deductions Neutral impact on consumption sector
claimed by him
1. INR 3.6 lakh crore for Jal Jeevan Mission has been approved;
Plastic Pipe Winners - Finolex Ind, Supreme Ind, Astral Poly, Prince Pipe
provided budget of INR 11,500cr for FY21
India imports technical textiles worth US$ 16 billion every year. To
boost domestic manufacturing, the government has proposed a
Textiles National Technical Textiles Mission with a four-year implementation Winners – Welspun India and Arvind Ltd.
period from 2020-21 to 2023-24 at an estimated outlay of INR 1480
crore.
Propose to raise excise duty, by way of National Calamity Contingent Marginal negative for ITC & Godfrey Phillips India
Tobacco Duty on Cigarettes and other tobacco products
25
Sectoral Impact
Sector Key Announcements Winners/Losers
● Infrastructure Financing
● INR 22,000 crore has already been provided as equity, as
support to Infrastructure Pipeline out of INR 102 lakh cr plan
that has been laid out.
● Infrastructure Finance Companies such as IIFCL and a
subsidiary of NIIF would leverage this equity to create
financing pipeline.
Winners: L&T, NCC
● Specified categories of government securities would be
opened for non-resident investors.
● Limit of FPI investment on corporate bonds increased from 9%
to 15%, this will allow foreign investment to come in Indian
infrastructure.
Infrastructure ● Govt. gave a target to monetise twelve lots of highway bundles
of over 6000 Km before 2024.
26
Sectoral Impact
Sector Key Announcements Winners/Losers
● Others
● It is proposed to set up Viability Gap funding window for
setting up hospitals in the PPP mode.
● It is proposed to develop five new smart cities in collaboration
Infrastructure Winners: PSP Projects, NCC, L&T
with States in PPP mode.
● GIFT City would set up an International Bullion exchange(s) in
GIFT-IFSC as an additional option for trade by global market
participants.
● PMAY: Budget for Awas Yojana has been increased by 9% YoY
to INR 27,500 cr. As housing sector contributes to 65% of
cement demand, affordable housing would be an important
driver going forward.
● Metro: Budget for metro (under urban infra) has been
Cement Winners: Ultratech, JK Cement
increased marginally by 1% YoY to INR 18,382 cr. It is
completely funded by IEBR sources.
● Airways: The Jal Vikas Marg on National Waterway-1 will be
completed. Further, the 890 Km Dhubri-Sadiya connectivity will
be done by 2022.
● The existing 25% BCD on Raw sugar has been abolished upto
an aggregate of 0.3 MT (Million Tonnes) of total imports.
Sugar ● We believe that this should not have any major impact on the Winners: Balrampur Chini
sugar sector primarily due to the small volume of imports
allowed.
27
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