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Copia de 07 - Taller - N (Autoguardado)
Copia de 07 - Taller - N (Autoguardado)
AÑO CÓDIGO GRUPO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
2010 10103010 G1 4.779 12.523 12.5 15.119 21.371 12.161 13.965 11.619
2010 10103020 G2 6.578 5.427 8.656 6.654 8.483 4.534 11.253 9.406
2010 10103110 G3 1.69 5.558 2.381 4.669 6.32 7.195 7.349 6.31
2010 10103120 G4 1.69 5.558 2.381 4.669 6.32 7.195 7.349 6.31
2010 10103210 G5 4.129 1.191 4.092 3.793 3.507 4.263 3.802 4.164
2010 10103310 G6 4.129 1.191 4.092 3.793 3.507 4.263 3.802 4.164
2009 10103010 G1 4.445 11.396 11.345 13.456 15.388 11.067 11.172 8.715
2009 10103020 G2 5.855 4.776 8.31 4.791 6.532 3.174 7.99 6.773
2009 10103110 G3 1.589 4.225 1.715 3.269 4.614 6.476 5.733 6.058
2009 10103120 G4 1.319 3.891 2.239 4.249 5.436 6.332 7.056 5.995
2009 10103210 G5 3.634 894 2.988 3.452 2.981 3.368 3.498 3.706
2009 10103310 G6 2.973 1.132 3.151 3.68 3.297 3.709 3.27 3.915
2008 10103010 G1 3.468 10.827 8.282 12.245 14.927 8.965 9.273 6.188
2008 10103020 G2 5.036 4.108 7.978 3.737 4.899 2.794 7.032 6.299
2008 10103110 G3 1.303 3.127 1.458 2.452 3.83 6.217 5.447 4.423
2008 10103120 G4 1.214 2.763 2.15 3.995 4.512 5.573 5.081 4.916
2008 10103210 G5 2.617 716 2.72 2.451 2.534 2.796 2.764 2.965
2008 10103310 G6 2.082 1.087 2.427 3.423 2.968 3.598 2.551 3.641
2007 10103010 G1 3.018 9.745 6.626 11.511 11.046 6.366 8.624 5.693
2007 10103020 G2 4.785 3.451 7.659 3.551 4.067 2.32 5.696 5.985
2007 10103110 G3 1.121 2.721 1.342 2.305 2.796 5.036 4.63 3.185
2007 10103120 G4 1.105 2.156 1.505 3.276 3.384 4.403 4.878 4.474
2007 10103210 G5 2.33 674 2.068 1.741 1.774 2.713 2.046 2.461
2007 10103310 G6 1.853 914 2.039 2.705 2.464 3.347 2.22 2.622
2006 10103010 G1 2.415 8.966 5.699 10.936 8.837 5.284 7.935 5.124
2006 10103020 G2 3.781 2.796 6.664 3.09 3.132 1.856 4.899 5.387
2006 10103110 G3 841 2.313 980 2.167 2.293 4.432 4.029 2.294
2006 10103120 G4 929 1.919 1.25 2.851 2.742 3.919 3.903 4.206
2006 10103210 G5 2.191 493 1.614 1.567 1.704 2.198 1.555 1.723
2006 10103310 G6 1.798 851 1.632 2.219 1.75 3.046 2.021 1.862
2005 10103010 G1 2.295 6.277 5.244 9.624 8.219 3.911 6.825 3.946
2005 10103020 G2 2.912 2.014 6.465 2.967 2.694 1.782 4.753 5.118
2005 10103110 G3 791 1.62 824 1.951 1.904 4.167 3.788 1.996
2005 10103120 G4 809 1.382 1.15 2.623 2.194 3.724 3.084 3.576
2005 10103210 G5 1.95 449 1.55 1.317 1.313 1.693 1.431 1.431
2005 10103310 G6 1.277 758 1.551 2.131 1.365 2.285 1.86 1.36
2004 10103010 G1 2.135 4.771 4.51 9.047 6.658 2.738 5.392 2.999
2004 10103020 G2 2.709 1.793 4.591 2.433 2.479 1.711 4.611 4.402
2004 10103110 G3 760 1.151 759 1.366 1.505 3.709 2.804 1.657
2004 10103120 G4 599 1.272 817 2.414 1.756 3.278 2.375 3.433
2004 10103210 G5 1.755 405 1.333 1.159 1.143 1.609 1.045 1.389
2004 10103310 G6 1.035 728 1.102 1.982 1.311 1.691 1.544 966
2003 10103010 G1 1.623 3.96 4.014 7.238 5.993 2.519 4.745 2.31
2003 10103020 G2 2.574 1.686 4.086 2.215 1.835 1.66 3.735 3.522
2003 10103110 G3 654 1.117 699 1.271 1.189 3.339 2.328 1.177
2003 10103120 G4 456 1.031 646 2.342 1.282 2.951 1.877 3.296
2003 10103210 G5 1.317 393 1.12 858 1.063 1.288 857 1.209
2003 10103310 G6 766 576 838 1.428 1.01 1.438 1.483 841
2002 10103010 G1 1.234 3.446 3.172 5.719 5.334 2.217 3.986 2.195
2002 10103020 G2 1.854 1.4 3.76 1.595 1.322 1.544 3.25 2.924
2002 10103110 G3 615 1.039 595 1.144 880 2.872 2.119 930
2002 10103120 G4 415 753 537 2.155 1.18 2.538 1.352 3.132
2002 10103210 G5 1.001 276 997 678 1 1.07 789 1.04
2002 10103310 G6 675 519 646 1.3 748 1.28 1.409 606
2001 10103010 G1 938 3.205 2.855 4.69 3.894 1.885 3.468 1.669
2001 10103020 G2 1.539 1.204 3.497 1.548 1.098 1.406 2.373 2.252
2001 10103110 G3 486 936 435 1.064 704 2.097 1.971 661
2001 10103120 G4 391 648 376 1.746 1.086 2.31 1.001 2.663
2001 10103210 G5 731 235 698 536 700 782 632 760
2001 10103310 G6 540 395 517 1.209 614 909 1.226 552
Ella piensa que una previsión precisa de las ventas le ayudaría a planificar sus necesidades de transporte
Empleando los primeros cuatro años como datos base para la estimación, y reservando los del último para
comprobar la precisión de los resultados:
GRUPO 1
AÑO CÓDIGO GRUPO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
2001 10103010 G1 938 3,205 2,855 4,690 3,894 1,885 3,468 1,669
2002 10103010 G1 1,234 3,446 3,172 5,719 5,334 2,217 3,986 2,195
2003 10103010 G1 1,623 3,960 4,014 7,238 5,993 2,519 4,745 2,310
2004 10103010 G1 2,135 4,771 4,510 9,047 6,658 2,738 5,392 2,999
2010 10103010 G1 4,779 12,523 12,500 15,119 21,371 12,161 13,965 11,619
GRUPO 2
AÑO CÓDIGO GRUPO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
2001 10103020 G2 1,539 1,204 3,497 1,548 1,098 1,406 2,373 2,252
2002 10103020 G2 1,854 1,400 3,760 1,595 1,322 1,544 3,250 2,924
2003 10103020 G2 2,574 1,686 4,086 2,215 1,835 1,660 3,735 3,522
2004 10103020 G2 2,709 1,793 4,591 2,433 2,479 1,711 4,611 4,402
2010 10103020 G2 6,578 5,427 8,656 6,654 8,483 4,534 11,253 9,406
GRUPO 3
AÑO CÓDIGO GRUPO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
2001 10103110 G3 486 936 435 1,064 704 2,097 1,971 661
2002 10103110 G3 615 1,039 595 1,144 880 2,872 2,119 930
2003 10103110 G3 654 1,117 699 1,271 1,189 3,339 2,328 1,177
2004 10103110 G3 760 1,151 759 1,366 1,505 3,709 2,804 1,657
2010 10103110 G3 1,690 5,558 2,381 4,669 6,320 7,195 7,349 6,310
GRUPO 4
AÑO CÓDIGO GRUPO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
2001 10103120 G4 391 648 376 1,746 1,086 2,310 1,001 2,663
2002 10103120 G4 415 753 537 2,155 1,180 2,538 1,352 3,132
2003 10103120 G4 456 1,031 646 2,342 1,282 2,951 1,877 3,296
2004 10103120 G4 599 1,272 817 2,414 1,756 3,278 2,375 3,433
2010 10103120 G4 1,690 5,558 2,381 4,669 6,320 7,195 7,349 6,310
GRUPO 5
AÑO CÓDIGO GRUPO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
2001 10103210 G5 731 235 698 536 700 782 632 760
2002 10103210 G5 1,001 276 997 678 1,000 1,070 789 1,040
2003 10103210 G5 1,317 393 1,120 858 1,063 1,288 857 1,209
2004 10103210 G5 1,755 405 1,333 1,159 1,143 1,609 1,045 1,389
2010 10103210 G5 4,129 1,191 4,092 3,793 3,507 4,263 3,802 4,164
GRUPO 6
AÑO CÓDIGO GRUPO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
2001 10103310 G6 540 395 517 1,209 614 909 1,226 552
2002 10103310 G6 675 519 646 1,300 748 1,280 1,409 606
2003 10103310 G6 766 576 838 1,428 1,010 1,438 1,483 841
2004 10103310 G6 1,035 728 1,102 1,982 1,311 1,691 1,544 966
2010 10103310 G6 4,129 1,191 4,092 3,793 3,507 4,263 3,802 4,164
2001 87,497
2002 113,114
2003 124,863
2004 151,784
2010 421,997
césped de siguiente tabla los
dades de transporte
do los del último para
ción
de la demanda.
SEP OCT
DIC TOTAL:
MEDIO PONDERADO
JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV
DIC
12
201
Lin
10 1)
f(x) = 0.035516911455831 x + 8.76884653225033 201
8 Lin
f(x) = 0.018053601254466 x + 7.43154137265293 2)
6 201
201
4 Lin
4)
f(x) = 0.017396517654649 x + 3.30263119327146 201
2 f(x) = 0.017789326953683 x + 2.31846751115442 201
Lin
0 6)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
9.12030612 9.15431804 9.02897079 9.11642087 9.10621943
7.5413034 7.72403372 7.54468131 7.60277649 7.64404005
3.30151216 3.56744697 3.31820478 3.3929392 3.45528161
3.36037232 3.64218052 3.3906634 3.4593569 3.52787088
2.40669168 2.63061064 2.42122863 2.48375416 2.53634055
2.40669168 2.63061064 2.42122863 2.48375416 2.53634055
2011 10103010 G 1
Linear (2011 10103010 G
1)
2011 10103020 G 2
Linear (2011 10103020 G
2)
2011 10103110 G 3
2011 10103120 G 4
Linear (2011 10103120 G
4)
2011 10103210 G 5
2011 10103310 G 6
Linear (2011 10103310 G
6)
2 14
TALER PRONÓSTICO
a. Efectuar un análisis de la demand
información.
Para realizar el análisis requerido es
la información sea lo más exacta pos
DEMANDA PRODUCTOS GRUPO G1 AÑOS 200
AÑO CÓDIGO
GRUP
O ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OC
###
###
0
G 1 938 3.205 2.855 4.690 3.894 1.885 3.468
###
###
0
G 1 1.234 3.446 3.172 5.719 5.334 2.217 3.9
###
###
0
G 1 1.623 3.960 4.014 7.238 5.993 2.519 4.7
###
###
0
G 1 2.135 4.771 4.510 9.047 6.658 2.738 5.3
###
###
0
G 1 4.779 12.523 12.500 15.119 21.371 12.1
PROMEDIO 2.142 5.581 5.410 8.363 8.650 4.
4.7
INDICE 0,452 1,178 1,142 1,765 1,825 0,908
http://myslide.es/documents/taller-pronostico-56af7bc58c20a.html
la demanda, a fin de garantizar la verac
2.054
40 2.282
99 2.852
.731 3.395
5 0,984 0,856
ulos para que
AÑO CÓDIGO GRUPO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT
2010 10103010 G1 4,779 12,523 12,500 15,119 21,371 12,161 13,965 11,619 3,385 4,120
2010 10103020 G2 6,578 5,427 8,656 6,654 8,483 4,534 11,253 9,406 4,681 5,775
2010 10103110 G3 1,690 5,558 2,381 4,669 6,320 7,195 7,349 6,310 2,813 3,630
2010 10103120 G4 1,690 5,558 2,381 4,669 6,320 7,195 7,349 6,310 2,813 4,024
2010 10103210 G5 4,129 1,191 4,092 3,793 3,507 4,263 3,802 4,164 3,200 2,405
2010 10103310 G6 4,129 1,191 4,092 3,793 3,507 4,263 3,802 4,164 3,200 2,405
2004 10103010 G1 2,135 4,771 4,510 9,047 6,658 2,738 5,392 2,999 1,138 1,652
2004 10103020 G2 2,709 1,793 4,591 2,433 2,479 1,711 4,611 4,402 1,442 1,467
2004 10103110 G3 760 1,151 759 1,366 1,505 3,709 2,804 1,657 826 1,220
2004 10103120 G4 599 1,272 817 2,414 1,756 3,278 2,375 3,433 935 1,161
2004 10103210 G5 1,755 405 1,333 1,159 1,143 1,609 1,045 1,389 1,032 720
2004 10103310 G6 1,035 728 1,102 1,982 1,311 1,691 1,544 966 1,366 1,187
2003 10103010 G1 1,623 3,960 4,014 7,238 5,993 2,519 4,745 2,310 877 1,421
2003 10103020 G2 2,574 1,686 4,086 2,215 1,835 1,660 3,735 3,522 1,313 1,203
2003 10103110 G3 654 1,117 699 1,271 1,189 3,339 2,328 1,177 587 1,050
2003 10103120 G4 456 1,031 646 2,342 1,282 2,951 1,877 3,296 870 964
2003 10103210 G5 1,317 393 1,120 858 1,063 1,288 857 1,209 774 555
2003 10103310 G6 766 576 838 1,428 1,010 1,438 1,483 841 1,312 986
2002 10103010 G1 1,234 3,446 3,172 5,719 5,334 2,217 3,986 2,195 746 1,251
2002 10103020 G2 1,854 1,400 3,760 1,595 1,322 1,544 3,250 2,924 1,261 1,059
2002 10103110 G3 615 1,039 595 1,144 880 2,872 2,119 930 552 924
2002 10103120 G4 415 753 537 2,155 1,180 2,538 1,352 3,132 618 675
2002 10103210 G5 1,001 276 997 678 1,000 1,070 789 1,040 666 400
2002 10103310 G6 675 519 646 1,300 748 1,280 1,409 606 1,194 908
2001 10103010 G1 938 3,205 2,855 4,690 3,894 1,885 3,468 1,669 627 914
2001 10103020 G2 1,539 1,204 3,497 1,548 1,098 1,406 2,373 2,252 1,035 1,017
2001 10103110 G3 486 936 435 1,064 704 2,097 1,971 661 409 786
2001 10103120 G4 391 648 376 1,746 1,086 2,310 1,001 2,663 439 621
2001 10103210 G5 731 235 698 536 700 782 632 760 567 352
2001 10103310 G6 540 395 517 1,209 614 909 1,226 552 860 809
NOV DIC
12,721 9,710
9,311 8,164
2,237 4,652
2,237 4,652
1,841 3,308
1,841 3,308
3,731 3,395
2,986 3,312
740 1,580
819 1,653
678 770
623 1,125
2,799 2,852
2,628 2,484
607 1,185
615 1,158
631 717
449 968
2,240 2,282
1,840 1,913
438 1,079
456 869
600 603
414 756
1,815 2,054
1,546 1,856
368 1,047
393 800
462 501
381 704
AÑO CÓDIGO GRUPO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP
2010 10103010 G1 4.779 12.523 12.5 15.119 21.371 12.161 13.965 11.619 3.385
2010 10103020 G2 6.578 5.427 8.656 6.654 8.483 4.534 11.253 9.406 4.681
2010 10103110 G3 1.69 5.558 2.381 4.669 6.32 7.195 7.349 6.31 2.813
2010 10103120 G4 1.69 5.558 2.381 4.669 6.32 7.195 7.349 6.31 2.813
2010 10103210 G5 4.129 1.191 4.092 3.793 3.507 4.263 3.802 4.164 3.2
2010 10103310 G6 4.129 1.191 4.092 3.793 3.507 4.263 3.802 4.164 3.2
2011 10103010 G1 8.8503333 10.427111 9.662481 9.64664 9.912078 9.740401 9.766374 9.806284 9.771019
2011 10103020 G2 7.75 8.4083333 8.107444 8.08859 8.201457 8.132498 8.140849 8.158268 8.143872
2011 10103110 G3 3.5063333 3.4651111 3.874481 3.61531 3.651634 3.713808 10.98075 6.115397 6.936652
2011 10103120 G4 3.6376667 3.5088889 3.932852 11.0794 18.52115 11.1778 13.59279 14.43058 13.0671
2011 10103210 G5 2.518 2.5556667 2.793889 2.62252 2.657358 2.691255 2.657044 2.668552 2.672284
2011 10103310 G6 2.518 2.5556667 2.793889 2.62252 2.65736 2.691255 2.657044 2.668552 2.672284
OCT NOV
DIC
4.12
12.721 9.71
9.781226
9.78618 9.779474