Other measures include the case fatality rate (CFR), which reflects the percentage of diagnosed people who

die from a disease, and the infection fatality rate (IFR), which reflects the percentage of infected (diagnosed
and undiagnosed) who die from a disease. These statistics are not timebound and follow a specific population
from infection through case resolution. Our World in Data states that as of 25 March 2020 the IFR cannot be
accurately calculated as neither the total number of cases nor the total deaths, is known.[378] In February the
Institute for Disease Modeling estimated the IFR at 0.37 per cent to 2.9 per cent, based on data from China.
[379]
 In March 2020, the World Health Organization estimated the global IFR as "0.94% (95% confidence interval
0.37-2.9)".[380] The University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) estimated a global CFR
of 0.72 per cent and IFR of 0.1 per cent to 0.41 per cent and observed, "Demographic changes in the
population will vary the IFR significantly. ... A single estimate of IFR across all age groups is therefore
unhelpful, particularly given the significant changes in risk of death with age".[381]

[382]
Total confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 per million people
 


Semi-log plot of daily deaths due to Covid-19 (three-day average) in the world and top five countries (mean with
cases)
 

Case fatality rate of COVID-19 by country and confirmed cases

 

Ongoing case fatality rate of COVID-19 by country

 
 

[383]
COVID-19 deaths per 100 000 population from selected countries

Duration
The WHO said on 11 March 2020 the pandemic could be controlled.[7] The peak and ultimate duration of the
outbreak are uncertain and may differ by location. Maciej Boni of Penn State University said, "Left unchecked,
infectious outbreaks typically plateau and then start to decline when the disease runs out of available hosts.
But it's almost impossible to make any sensible projection right now about when that will be".[384] The Chinese
government's senior medical adviser Zhong Nanshan argued that "it could be over by June" if all countries can
be mobilised to follow the WHO's advice on measures to stop the spread of the virus.[384] On 17 March, Adam
Kucharski of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine said SARS-CoV-2 "is going to be circulating,
potentially for a year or two".[385] According to the Imperial College study led by Neil Ferguson, physical
distancing and other measures will be required "until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or
more)".[386] William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University said, "I think it's unlikely that this coronavirus—because
it's so readily transmissible—will disappear completely" and it "might turn into a seasonal disease, making a
comeback every year". The virulence of the comeback would depend on herd immunity and the extent of
mutation.[387]