Update

NEoWave Analysis of
Long term chart of Nifty Cash

Date of Report – 16-11-2019

 Analysis of 2.5 years Wave Chart of Sensex 30
Observations -
1. Some major pattern concluded at the high of
4546.58 during the month of April 1992.
There is no way to know what pattern
concluded at 4546.58 since very less data is
available. It is assumed that an Impulse wave
may have concluded at the top of 4546.58.
2. An Irregular Flat pattern started from the top
of 4546.58 and concluded at the higher low
of 2828.48 during the month of October
2002. This Irregular Flat pattern consumed
almost ten years or 9 time units (TUs) from
NEoWave perspective. The Irregular Flat is
labelled as [A]-[B]-[C].
3. A strong up move started from the low of
2828.48 and ended at the high of 21206.77
during the month of January 2008 consuming
almost five years or 4 TUs. This up move is a
Zigzag pattern and is labelled as wave [X].
This up move is a big wave [X] since it is
larger then previous Irregular Flat by more
than 1.618 times.
NEoWave Logic -
1. A Double Three pattern [:3-:3-:5+ wave x +:3-:3-:5] seems to be progressing from the year 1992 top of 4546.58. The Indices must be
in wave [B] of second Irregular Flat pattern. The focus now will be on 2nd Irregular Flat for forecasting purpose.
2. As per NEoWave theory, the maximum time difference between waves [A] and [B] will be generally 7 times. Though it can be more
but then the pattern becomes suspicious. In the 1st Flat pattern, the wave [B] is 6 times of wave [A]. The wave [B] of 2nd Flat has
already consumed 6 TUs till June 2017. In such scenario, the rising trend line (in red) joining [C] and [A] derives at most importance.
The breach of this line will indicate completion of wave [B].
3. The completion of wave [B] may open Indices for downward wave [C] which may fall towards lower parallel line.
4. The analysis of lower time frame (6 months chart) may give us more clues about completion of wave [B]. The same is on next page.
 Analysis of 6 months Wave Chart of Nifty cash
NEoWave Logic -
1. There are three pattern possibilities after wave X; and
those are; Irregular Flat, Triangle (Contracting or
Neutral), or a Diametric pattern.
2. The time consumed by up move from the end of wave
[A] negates the possibility of Triangle. And hence, we
are left with possibilities of an Irregular Flat or a
Diametric pattern.
3. The upper chart shows the possibility of an Irregular
Flat. As per NEoWave theory, the wave [B] in Flat
normally take 2-4 longer time than wave [A]. There is no
absolute maximum time limit, but the pattern becomes
suspicious beyond 5-7 times. In case of Nifty cash, the
wave [A] has consumed 4 TUs whereas, wave [B] has
consumed 41 TUs till June 2019. The time of assumed
wave [B] is more than 10 times that of wave [A]. This
makes the pattern suspicious and hence, Diametric still
remains a possibility which is shown in the lower chart.
4. If still an Irregular Flat is unfolding then the Indices is in
last leg of wave [B]. The cross below 10000 {breach of
[d]-[f] trend line} will confirm the completion of wave
[B] and start of downward wave [C].
5. If a Diametric is unfolding then the Indices is in wave
[F]. The wave [F] must travel beyond 16000 to maintain
proper shape (contraction and then expansion) and
should not cross below 10000. The wave [C] has
consumed maximum time, i.e, 10 TUs. The time limit
for wave [F] is till 16 TUs. Hence, the Indices may touch
16000 before end of June 2021 provided 10000 level is
sustained.
6. The analysis of wave [g]/[F] may give us fair idea about
possibility that is going to unfold. The same is on next
page.
 Analysis of Monthly Wave Chart of Nifty cash
NEoWave Logic -
1. The Monthly chart also gives two possible scenarios.
The same are explained below.
2. The 1st scenario (chart on top) is bearish one where the
wave [g] is unfolding as a Symmetrical pattern. Most of
the waves in the direction of trend are similar in price,
time and complexity. The same are shown by green
rectangles. Currently wave (F) is progressing and should
be complete before end of December 2019 to maintain
the similarity of price, time and complexity. The
maximum upside possible under this scenario is 12185.
The Indices must retrace whole of wave (F) [that is, it
must cross below 10630] in less time after its
completion. If the above mentioned behaviour takes
place then the Indices is expected to fall till minimum of
7000 levels in next 23 years. The absence of above
mentioned behaviour will indicate that this scenario is
not progressing.
3. The other scenario (lower chart) is bullish scenario. The
pattern unfolding might be Zigzag {[a]-[b]-[c]} and
currently, the Indices is in wave [b]. The wave [b] itself
may be unfolding as a Diametric pattern and currently,
wave (F) might be unfolding. In this scenario, the wave
(F) may or may not cross above 12185 BUT the
thereafter the fall inside wave (G) will be smaller and
more time consuming. Also, wave (G) will conclude
somewhere above 10630. The completion of wave (G)
will also complete wave [b] and thereafter a fast and
furious up move may start which may rise till minimum
of 16000 by end of year 2021.
4. Kindly see the conclusion on next page.
 Conclusion
1. The price behaviour and the time consumed by it (of next 3-4 months) should give us
prior indication about the longer term future road map.
2. The downward target for bearish scenario is minimum of 7000 in next 2-3 years
provided following behaviour is present.
a) The Indices should not cross above 12185.
b) The wave (I) should conclude before end of December 2019.
c) The downward move thereafter should cross below 10630 in less time than that is
consumed by wave (I).
3. The upside target for bullish scenario is minimum of 16000 by end of 2021 provided
following behaviour is present.
a) The currently unfolding wave (F) may consume time beyond December 2019 and
might cross above 12185. This will be first indication that bearish scenario is not
unfolding.
b) The fall after completion of wave (f) [that is wave (g)] should be smaller than wave
(f) and must consume more time. It also should concluded somewhere above 10630.
c) The Indices should move up with speed after completion of wave (g).
Thank you.

NEoWave Analyst – Nitin E.Bagde

Email address – nitin_in@hotmail.com