CONFIDENTIAL A Infrastructure Ar caiiniversity FINAL EXAMINATION MARCH SEMESTER 2019 INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHOD AND STATISTICS (STAT 2000) (TIME : 3 HOURS) MATRIC NO. [ 1 1c. passport no. :{_[ | LTT LECTURER + NORAVASIKIN BINTI ABU BAKAR (GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS ‘This question booklet consists of 6 printed pages including this page Answer ALL questions for Saction Ain the ANSWER BOOKLET. Answer ANY ONE () question fr Section Bin the ANSWER BOOKLET, Pease do nti answer booklet with uertion booklet ope PLEASE DONOT TURN THIS PAGE AND START THE EXAM UNTIL YOU ARE TOLD TODOSO. CONFIDENTIAL Page 1 of 6INSTRUCTIONS TIME: 9 HOURS SECTION A (MARKS) “There are FIVE (5) questions inthis section, Answer ALL Questions inthe Amwer Booklet. 1 Yo pla re planing a trip home atthe end ofthe semester and need to make reservations soon. However, you've just had preliminary interview ‘wth consulting firm that seemed to go very wel. There's a chance that they ‘ill want yout stay fora fer days atthe end ofthe semester for around interviews at thee offices, which will mean you'l have to change the date of the light if you make the reservation now. Suppose that you ean purchase a changeable fre for $750 or non-refundable fare for $650 for which «charge costs $150. ° » Construct payoff able using total cos asthe “payor”, G marks) If you thnk the probability of being called for an interview is 030, calulatethe expected value ofeach ation, Which isthe Better ation this ease? Construct a decision tre to illustrate your decision, (marks) 9) You've leamed tha you are onthe shortlist. Which ofthe action shoal you choose if you use the maximax or minimin, maximin, equal Tikelihood and expected opportunity los decision citerion? 7 marks) (CLO3:PLOE:CA) 2. ‘The price of bananas fluctuates on the world marker. Here are the pics (Giton forthe years 2015 ~2019, 2013 [ 2016 [2017] 2018 [3019 aazaT | 38470 | “s27.61_| 315.19 [oad 8) Find a 3-year moving average predietion forthe bananas’ price. (marks) 'b) Finda prediction for2020 using an exponential smoothing witha = 24 (S marks) ©) The actual pice of bananas in 2020 was $77 per ton. Compare the mean shrolute deviation foreach prediton (6 marks) (CLOL-PLOI:C3) STAT ROOWNarenTOTT Page2 of3. Four automobiles have entered Bubba's Repair shop for various types of ‘work, ranging from a transmission overhaul toa brake job. The experience level ofthe mechanic is quite varied, and Bubba would like to minimize the time required to complet all ofthe jobs. He has estimated the ine in inates foreach mechanie to complete each job, Tob, Mechanie: |} 70 Bily___[ao0-|-90 [a0 | 1207 Taylor | 650-| 120. | 90_| 180. Mark | 480-| 120 |-80~| 180) John 300 |-110-[_90_ [130] 8) Help Bubba to assigned his mechanic to each ob, What is the minimum total time required to finish the four jobs? (13 marks) 1) Explain how to help Bubba in determining the maximum effcienses one of his mechanis not availabe marks) icL02:PL02:C3) 4. ‘Theestimated times (in weeks) and immediate predecessors forthe actives ina project are given inthe following table Times (weeks) Activity Activity Predecessor Optimistic Mast Likely Pessimistic a 9 15 2 B b a 23 c A 6 9 18 D 4 2 35 a E B 19 26 2 F c 2 2» a G 6 2» 26 H 2 s s 2) Construct an AON network with its time shown onthe node, Deerne ‘the ritical path and compute expected competion ine (11 marks) b) tthe time to complete path A ~ His normally distributed, what isthe probability thar this path il Be Fniabed in 72 weeks or les? @ marks) ©) What are the major diferences between PERT and CPM? 1 marty {CLO2:PLO2:C3) STATROONMarshD01T Page 3 of5. Given a shortest route problem presented in the diagram below All rads (in km) are summarized in the following table. Due to bad weather, the roads going through node 8 have been closed. No trafic can get onto or off of this road, Find the shortest route going from rade Ito node 16 ‘Slarinode Tndnode 20 marks) (cLo2:PL.02:¢3) STAT ROO MareRIOTT Page 4 of6SECTION B (0 MARKS) ‘There are TWO (2) questions inthis section, Answer ANY ONE (1) question in the Answer Booklet. 1. Given the percentages of expenditure and profits s follows: Expendiiars OO] 15 Profits 6) 36 2a 1330 sa] 1s | 29 [43 8) Plot seattr diagram and estimate the profits to be derived if the advertising expenditure was 1.2% of total expenditure 1) Develop a fited regression model to predict the relationship between adverising expenditure and profits. ©) Based on the data given, explain about the accuracy of the fited regression model andthe stengthens of correlation between expenditure and profits. (marks) (10 marks) (5 marks) (CLOLPLOL:C3) 2. Formulate a Tinear programming model for the following problem. Hence, solve this model using graphical analysis {A jewelry store makes neeklaces and bracelets from gold and platinum The ‘slre bas 18 ounces of gold and 20 ounces of platinum. Each necklace requires 3 ounces of gold and 2 ounces of platinum whereas beacelet requires 2 ounces ‘of god and 4 ounces of platinum. The demand for bracelets is no more tan fou. A necklace ears $300 in pofitand a bracelet, $400. The store wantsto determine the numberof necklaes and bracclets to make inorder to maxim 22 their profit (20 marks) (CLOLPLOI:C3) ++ END OF QUESTIONS *** ‘STAT 20007 MarshQ01 Page 5 ofFORMULAE at4mtb Elforecast error| Map = ad +U-OR (average) Gate Random index Values form 7[ijz[a[4+[s|é6[7,e]s]o apo [of ose fos [aie rer ase | rar as [a ‘STAT ROO MarohD01T Page 6oF6