‫ﺩﻭﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﻭﺧﺎﻙ‬

‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﻜﺪﻩ ﻛﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﻱ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ‬

‫‪ ٢٣‬ﻭ ‪ ٢٤‬ﺍﺭﺩﻳﺒﻬﺸﺖ ‪١٣٨٣‬‬

‫ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﯽ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﮐﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﺁﺏ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺯﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﻭﺩ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ‬

‫ﻓﺮﻫﺎﺩ ﻣﻴﺜﺎﻗﯽ‪،‬ﮐﻮﺭﺵ ﻣﺤﻤﺪﯼ‬

‫ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﯼ ﮐﺎﺭﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ ﺍﺭﺷﺪ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﯼ ﻭ ﺯﻫﮑﺸﯽ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺗﺮﺑﻴﺖ ﻣﺪﺭﺱ‪ ،‬ﺗﻬﺮﺍﻥ ‪.Farhad_Misaghi@yahoo.com‬‬
‫ﻋﻀﻮ ﻫﻴﺄﺕ ﻋﻠﻤﯽ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺗﺮﺑﻴﺖ ﻣﺪﺭﺱ‪ ،‬ﺗﻬﺮﺍﻥ ‪.Kouroshm@Modares.ac.ir‬‬

‫ﭼﮑﻴﺪﻩ‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺻﻠﯽ ﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﮐﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺷﺮﺏ‪ ،‬ﮐﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﯼ ﻭ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ‬
‫ﺧﺎﺻﯽ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻓﯽ ﮐﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﺁﺏ ﺍﺯ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﺷﺮﺏ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻴﻦ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ‪ ،‬ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ‬
‫ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﯽ ﻭ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﯽ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﻳﮏ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ‪ ،‬ﻳﮑﯽ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﻳﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺳﺘﺎ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﯼ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﮐﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﺁﺏ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ‬
‫ﺣﻔﻆ ﮐﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﺁﺏ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎ ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻣﻨﺪ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﻭﺭﻭﺩﯼ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻳﺎ ﺩﺳﺘﺮﺳﯽ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﺸﮑﻞ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﮑﻪ ﺍﻧﺪﺯﻩ ﮔﻴﺮﯼ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺻﺮﻑ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﯼ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ‬
‫ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻡ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﻣﻐﺰ ﺑﺸﺮ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﻴﻨﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺍﯼ ﺑﺮﺗﺮ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺭﺳﯽ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﯽ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﮔﻴﺮﯼ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺩﻗﺖ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻗﺒﻮﻟﯽ‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺭﺍ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﯽ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭﯼ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺯﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﻭﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﻪ ﻣﺮﮐﺰﯼ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ‪ BOD‬ﻭ ‪ DO‬ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﮔﻴﺮﯼ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ‪ ۱۴‬ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺎﺗﻼﻕ‬
‫ﮔﺎﻭﺧﻮﻧﯽ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺪﻝ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ ‪QUAL2E‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﮐﻪ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﻨﺪﻩ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺎﻳﯽ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺒﻴﻪ ﺳﺎﺯﯼ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ‬
‫ﻣﺬﮐﻮﺭ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﮊﻩ ﻫﺎﯼ ﮐﻠﻴﺪﯼ‪ :‬ﮐﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﺁﺏ‪ ،DO ،BOD ،‬ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ‪ ،‬ﻳﮑﯽ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﻫﺎﯼ ﺍﺻﻠﯽ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﭘﺎﻳﺪﺍﺭ ﺑﺸﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩﯼ ﮐﻪ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻳﮑﯽ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﮐﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺟﻮﺍﻣﻊ ﺑﺸﺮﯼ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﻣﯽ ﮔﺮﺩﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻋﻼﻭﻩ ﺑﺮ ﮐﻤﻴﺖ ﻭ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ‪ ،‬ﮐﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﺁﺏ ﻧﻴﺰ‬
‫ﺟﺰﺀ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﻣﻬﻢ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﯽ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ ﺁﺏ ﻳﮑﯽ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻮﻟﻔﻪ ﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﻳﺰﻳﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻳﺴﺘﯽ ﺑﺪﻗﺖ ﺷﺒﻴﻪ ﺳﺎﺯﯼ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﺯﺩﻩ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
 ‫ﺩﻭﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﺧﺎﻙ‐ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ‬

‫ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﯼ ﻳﮑﯽ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﮐﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺑﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎﻳﺴﺘﯽ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﺩﺳﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺪﺭﮐﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﻳﺰﯼ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺧﺎﺻﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ۲۵‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺭﺍﺿﯽ ﮐﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﯼ ﺷﻮﺭ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻭ‬
‫ﻳﺎ ﻣﺸﮑﻼﺗﯽ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎ ﺷﻮﺭﯼ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﮐﻪ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ‪ %۵۰‬ﮐﻞ ﺍﺭﺍﺿﯽ ﮐﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﯼ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ )‪.(Droogers, 2000‬‬
‫ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺯﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﻭﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﮐﺰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﺻﻠﯽ ﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﮐﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﺁﺏ ﮐﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﯼ ﺩﺭ ﺣﻮﺯﻩ ﺁﺑﺮﻳﺰ ﺯﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﻭﺩ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬
‫ﺁﺏ ﺑﺮﮔﺸﺘﯽ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺰﺍﺭﻉ ﮐﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﯼ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﺿﻼﺏ ﺻﻨﻌﺘﯽ ﻭ ﺁﻟﻮﺩﮔﯽ ﻫﺎﯼ ﺷﻬﺮﯼ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﻻﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﺸﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﯽ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺁﺏ‬
‫ﺑﺮﮔﺸﺘﯽ ﺍﺯ ﮐﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﮐﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺍﮐﺜﺮﹰﺍ ﺑﺸﮑﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺗﺨﻠﻴﻪ ﻣﯽ ﮔﺮﺩﺩ ﻭ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﯼ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﮐﺎﺭﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﺎﯼ ﺻﻨﻌﺘﯽ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﯼ ﺍﻣﮑﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺗﺼﻔﻴﻪ ﻓﺎﺿﻼﺏ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻓﯽ ﮐﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﺁﺏ ﻳﮑﯽ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺩﺭ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﺩﺳﺖ‬
‫ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺧﺼﻮﺻ ﹰﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻬﺎﯼ ﮐﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﯼ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺣﻔﻆ ﮐﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﺁﺏ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﯼ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎ ﻧﻴﺎﺭﻣﻨﺪ‬
‫ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﻭﺭﻭﺩﯼ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻳﺎ ﺩﺳﺘﺮﺳﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﺸﮑﻞ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﮑﻪ ﺍﻧﺪﺯﻩ ﮔﻴﺮﯼ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺻﺮﻑ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﯼ‬
‫ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ . .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻡ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﻣﻐﺰ ﺑﺸﺮ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﻴﻨﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺍﯼ ﺑﺮﺗﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﯽ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﯽ ﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﮔﻴﺮﯼ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺩﻗﺖ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻗﺒﻮﻟﯽ‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺭﺍ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﯽ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺟﺬﺍﺑﻴﺖ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎ ‪ 1 ANNs‬ﺑﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺎﻳﻲ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺣﻞ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺧﻄﯽ‪ ،‬ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺍﺯﯼ‪ ،‬ﺣﺠﻴﻢ ﻭ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﯼ ﺧﻄﺎ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺎﻳﻲ ﻳﺎﺩﮔﻴﺮﯼ ﺣﻞ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﻓﺎﺯﯼ ﻭ ﺗﺸﺨﻴﺺ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎ‪ ٢‬ﺭﺍ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺩﺍﺭﺍ‬
‫ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ )‪.(Jain et al, 1996‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﮐﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﺁﺏ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺯﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﻭﺩ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻫﺪﻑ ﺍﺻﻠﯽ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻣﺪﻝ‬
‫ﺷﺒﻴﻪ ﺳﺎﺯﯼ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ ‪ ٣ BOD‬ﻭ ‪ 4 DO‬ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻤﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺁﻧﺎﻟﻴﺰ ﺳﺮﻳﻊ‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺁﻟﻮﺩﮔﯽ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺒﻴﻪ ﺳﺎﺯﯼ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ ﺁﺏ ﺩﺭ ﻳﮏ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺵ ﻫﺎ‬

‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ‬
‫ﺣﻮﺯﻩ ﺁﺑﺮﻳﺰ ﺯﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﻭﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺳﻌﺖ ‪ ۴۱۵۰۰‬ﮐﻴﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﮐﺰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻫﻴﭻ ﺧﺮﻭﺟﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﯼ ﺁﺯﺍﺩ‬
‫ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ )ﺷﮑﻞ ‪ .(۱‬ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﻮﺯﻩ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺯﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﻭﺩ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﻕ ﺍﻣﺘﺪﺍﺩ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺭﺷﺘﻪ ﮐﻮﻩ ﻫﺎﯼ ﺯﺍﮔﺮﺱ ﺳﺮﭼﺸﻤﻪ ﻣﯽ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﻃﻼﻕ ﮔﺎﻭﺧﻮﻧﯽ ﺗﺨﻠﻴﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﻮﺯﻩ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﯼ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﻢ ﺧﺸﮏ ﻳﺎ‬
‫ﻧﻴﻤﻪ ﺧﺸﮏ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﺭﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻬﺮ ﺍﺻﻔﻬﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ‪ ۱۸۰۰‬ﻣﺘﺮﯼ‪ ،‬ﺑﻄﻮﺭ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ ۱۳۰‬ﻣﻴﻠﯽ ﻣﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﮐﻪ‬
‫ﺍﮐﺜﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﺰﻭﻻﺕ ﺩﺭ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺯﻣﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻧﺎﺯﻝ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻟﺬﺍ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﺭﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﺩﺭ ﻃﯽ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺗﺎﺑﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻭ ﻓﺼﻞ ﮔﺮﻣﺎ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻃﺮﻓﯽ ﺩﻣﺎﯼ ﻫﻮﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺎﺑﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻻ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻴﺮﻣﺎﻩ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ۳۰‬ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ﺳﺎﻧﺘﻴﮕﺮﺍﺩ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﻴﮑﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﺑﺎﺭﺵ ﺩﺭ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺳﺮﺩ‬
‫ﻭ ﺩﻣﺎﯼ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ۳‬ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ﺳﺎﻧﺘﻴﮕﺮﺍﺩ ﻧﺎﺯﻝ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺗﺒﺨﻴﺮ ﭘﺘﺎﻧﺴﻴﻞ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ۱۵۰۰‬ﻣﻴﻠﯽ ﻣﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﮐﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﻭ‬
‫ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻣﺆﻳﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻦ ﻳﮏ ﮐﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﯼ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﯼ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﯼ ﮐﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﮑﺎﻥ ﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﻧﻤﯽ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﻭ ﺍﺻﻠﯽ ﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﮐﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﺁﺏ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺩﺷﺖ‪ ،‬ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺯﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﻭﺩ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﭼﺸﻤﻪ‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫)‪Artificial Neural Netorks (ANNs‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪Pattern Recognize‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫)‪Bio-chemical Demand Oxigen (BOD‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫)‪Demand Oxigen (DO‬‬
 ‫ﺩﻭﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﺧﺎﻙ‐ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ‬

‫ﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻗﻨﺎﺕ ﻫﺎ ﻭ ﭼﺎﻩ ﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﺶ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﮐﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﯼ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﺁﺏ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺑﺮﻋﻬﺪﻩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﺨﺰﻥ ﭼﺎﺩﮔﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﮑﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻣﯽ‬
‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻧﻬﺎﯼ ﺍﻭﺝ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﯽ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻩ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻓﺮﻭﺭﺩﻳﻦ ﻭ ﺍﺭﺩﻳﺒﻬﺸﺖ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺘﺪﺭﻳﺞ ﺩﺭ ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺗﺨﻠﻴﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ‬
‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ‬

‫ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎﺕ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﯽ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺩﻩ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻭ ﻣﻐﺰ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﺑﻨﺎ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺷﺒﻜﻪ ﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﺼﺒﻲ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﻲ ﺟﺰﺀ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﻫﺎﻱ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻲ ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺯﺵ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻲ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﻧﻬﻔﺘﻪ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻭﺭﺍﻱ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﺷﺒﻜﻪ ﻣﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻣﻲ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺧﺎﻃﺮ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﻫﺎﻱ ﻫﻮﺷﻤﻨﺪ ﻣﻲ ﻧﺎﻣﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﺭﻭﻱ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﺪﺩﻱ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﻣﺜﺎﻝﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻗﻮﺍﻧﻴﻦ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺭﺍ ﻓﺮﺍ ﻣﻲ ﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪ)‪ .(Jain et al, 1999‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺒﺘﻨﻲ‬
‫ﺑﺮ ﻫﻮﺵ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎﺗﻲ‪ ،‬ﺳﻌﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺳﺎﺯﻱ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﻧﺮﻭﺳﻴﻨﺎﭘﺘﻴﻜﻲ ﻣﻐﺰ ﺑﺸﺮ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺷﺒﻜﻪ ﻫﺎﻱ ﻋﺼﺒﻲ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﻲ ﺑﺎ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﻋﺼﺒﻲ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻧﻴﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻲ ﻭﻳﮋﮔﻴﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻌﻀﻲ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﺭﺑﺮﺩﻫﺎ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﺭﺑﺎﺗﻴﻚ‪ ،‬ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﻭ ﺑﻄﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺟﺎ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺑﻪ ﻳﺎﺩﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻳﻚ ﻧﮕﺎﺷﺖ ﺧﻄﻲ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺧﻄﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺘﺎﺯ ﻣﻲ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﻭﻳﮋﮔﻴﻬﺎ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ ﻳﺎﺩﮔﻴﺮﻱ‪ ،‬ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺯﺵ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌﻲ ﻭ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ ﺗﻌﻤﻴﻢ ﺩﻫﯽ ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﮐﻠﯽ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻪ ﻻﻳﻪ ﺗﺸﮑﻴﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ‐۱‬ﻻﻳﻪ ﻭﺭﻭﺩﯼ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻻﻳﻪ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺭﻭﺩﯼ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‐۲‬ﻻﻳﻪ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﻻﻳﻪ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻣﺨﻔﯽ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻻﻳﻪ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺯﺵ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‐۳‬ﻻﻳﻪ ﺧﺮﻭﺟﯽ‪ :‬ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮﺩ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﺩ )ﺷﮑﻞ ‪.(۲‬‬
‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﻳﮏ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻻﻳﻪ ﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻧﺮﻭﻥ ﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﻻﻳﻪ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺤﺮﮎ )ﮐﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﮐﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﺧﺮﻭﺟﯽ ﻫﺮ ﻧﺮﻭﻥ(‪،‬‬
‫ﺭﻭﺵ ﺁﻣﻮﺯﺵ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﮕﻮﺭﻳﺘﻢ ﺗﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻭﺯﻧﻬﺎ ﻭ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﺪﻝ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮﺩ )‪.(Caudill, 1987‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺧﻮﺭ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ‪ ٥‬ﺑﻤﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺷﺒﻴﻪ ﺳﺎﺯﯼ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﮐﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﺁﺏ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ‬
‫ﺯﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻭ ﭘﻴﺸﻨﻬﺎﺩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺭﻭﺩﯼ‬
‫ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﮔﻴﺮﯼ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﯼ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺯﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﺯﻳﺴﺖ ﺍﺻﻔﻬﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺁﺏ‬
‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺍﯼ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎﯼ ‪ ۱۳۶۶‬ﺗﺎ ‪ ۱۳۸۰‬ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﻭ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺁﻭﺭﯼ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭﯼ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻓﺼﻠﯽ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ‬
‫ﺁﺯﻣﺎﻳﺸﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺁﻧﺎﻟﻴﺰﻫﺎﯼ ﺁﺯﻣﺎﻳﺸﮕﺎﻫﯽ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺁﻣﻮﺯﺵ ﻭ ﺻﺤﺖ ﻳﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻫﺎﯼ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ ‪ BOD‬ﻭ ‪ DO‬ﺩﺭ ‪ ۱۴‬ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻣﻮﭼﻮﺩ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭﯼ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻣﺬﮐﻮﺭ ﻭ ﻃﯽ ﻳﮏ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ‪ ۱۰‬ﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ‪ ۴‬ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﺑﺎﻻﺩﺳﺖ ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻭﺭﻭﺩﯼ ﻭ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻫﺎﯼ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻫﺎﯼ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻃﻼﻕ ﮔﺎﻭﺧﻮﻧﯽ ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺧﺮﻭﺟﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﯽ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ۱۳۷۹‬ﺣﻘﻴﻘﯽ ﻣﺪﻝ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺯﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻌﺒﻪ ﻧﺮﻡ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﺭﯼ ‪ QUAL2E‬ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﺩﺍﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺁﻥ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﮔﻴﺮﯼ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻩ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻣﺮﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ۱۳۷۶‬ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﮐﺎﻟﻴﺒﺮﻩ ﻭ ﺻﺤﺖ ﻳﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﺪﻝ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﺯ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﯽ ﻭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺤﻘﻖ‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﻤﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻝ ﻭ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪5‬‬
‫)‪General Regression Neural Network (GRNN‬‬
 ‫ﺩﻭﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﺧﺎﻙ‐ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ‬

‫ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺧﻮﺭ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﺑﻤﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺷﺒﻴﻪ ﺳﺎﺯﯼ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ‪ BOD‬ﻭ ‪ DO‬ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻃﻮﻝ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺯﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﻭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ‪ ۱۴‬ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻃﯽ ‪ ۱۰‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﯼ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ‬
‫ﺁﻣﻮﺯﺵ ﻭ ﺻﺤﺖ ﻳﺎﺑﯽ )ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒ ﹰﺎ ‪ %۲۰‬ﮐﻞ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ( ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻤﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻦ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ‪ ،‬ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻻﻳﻪ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻣﺨﻔﯽ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﻧﺮﻭﻧﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﻻﻳﻪ ﻣﺨﻔﯽ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺎﮐﺘﻮﺭﻫﺎﯼ ﺁﻣﻮﺯﺵ‪ ،‬ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﺣﺎﻓﻈﻪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺍﺑﻊ ﻣﺤﺮﮎ ﻭ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎﯼ ﺁﻣﻮﺯﺵ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﺷﺪﻩ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺷﺒﻴﻪ ﺳﺎﺯﯼ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ ‪ BOD‬ﻭ ‪ DO‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ )‪ (۱‬ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﻣﺠﺬﻭﺭ ﺧﻄﺎ‪ ،٦‬ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﻧﺮﻣﺎﻝ ﻣﺠﺬﻭﺭ ﺧﻄﺎ‪ ،٧‬ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ‪ ٨‬ﻭ ﺧﻄﺎ‪ ،٩‬ﻫﺮ ﻳﮏ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ‬
‫ﺁﻣﻮﺯﺵ ﻭ ﺻﺤﺖ ﻳﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄﻮﺭ ﮐﻪ ﺫﮐﺮ ﺷﺪ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ ‪ ۴‬ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﻳﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﻻﺩﺳﺖ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻭﺭﻭﺩﯼ ﻭ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻫﺎﯼ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻫﺎﯼ‬
‫ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺎﻃﻼﻕ ﮔﺎﻭﺧﻮﻧﯽ ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺧﺮﻭﺟﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﯽ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺷﮑﻠﻬﺎﯼ )‪ (۳‬ﻭ )‪ (۴‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ‬
‫ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﻩ ﺍﯼ ﻭ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﯽ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺻﺤﺖ ﻳﺎﺑﯽ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﻣﯽ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﯽ ﺩﻫﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ‬
‫ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ‪ BOD‬ﺭﺍ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﯽ ﻣﯽ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺧﺼﻮﺻ ﹰﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺁﺧﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﮐﻪ ﻭﺭﻭﺩﯼ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻃﻼﻕ ﮔﺎﻭﺧﻮﻧﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮ ‪ DO‬ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺩﻗﺖ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺧﻮﺑﯽ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﻞ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻫﺎ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﯽ ﻣﯽ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﯽ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺩﻭ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﺭﺿﺎﻳﺖ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄﻮﺭ ﮐﻪ ﺫﮐﺮ ﺷﺪ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺩﻭ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﺍﻧﺘﻬﺎﻳﻲ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺭﺿﺎﻳﺖ ﺑﺨﺸﯽ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﻤﯽ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺭﺍ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻌﻠﺖ ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺩﻭ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺍیﺴﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻫﺎﯼ ﺑﺎﻻﺩﺳﺖ )ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺭﻭﺩﯼ( ﮐﻪ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ۱۷۰‬ﮐﻴﻠﻮﻣﺘﺮ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻧﺴﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﯼ ﺷﺒﻴﻪ ﺳﺎﺯﯼ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯼ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺪﻝ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ ‪ QUAL2E‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺷﮑﺎﻝ )‪ (۵‬ﻭ )‪ (۶‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﺍﻩ ﺍﯼ‪ ،‬ﺧﺮﻭﺟﯽ‬
‫ﻣﺪﻝ ‪ QUAL2E‬ﻭ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻫﺎﯼ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﯽ ﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺷﮑﺎﻝ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺍﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﺪﻝ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ‬
‫‪ QUAL2E‬ﺗﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﭼﻨﺪﺍﻧﯽ ﺑﺎ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﮐﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺷﮑﺎﻝ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎﻟﻴﺒﺮﺍﺳﻴﻮﻥ ﻧﺎﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﺪﻝ‪ ،‬ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺩﺍﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﺬﺍ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﮔﻔﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺎﻳﻲ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻳﮏ ﻣﺪﻝ ﺷﺒﻴﻪ ﺳﺎﺯ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ‬
‫ﮐﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﺁﺏ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﻳﮏ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﺗﺌﻮﺭﻳﮏ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ ﺭﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻊ‬

‫ﺍﺑﻮﺍﻟﻘﺎﺳﻤﯽ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻒ‪ .(۱۳۷۹) ،‬ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﻟﻮﺩﮔﯽ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺪﻝ ‪ QUAL2E‬ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭﯼ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺯﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﻭﺩ‪ .‬ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﮐﺎﺭﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ ﺍﺭﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺻﻨﻌﺘﯽ ﺍﺻﻔﻬﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪Droogers, P., H.R. Salemi and A. Mamanpoush. 2000. Exploring basin scale salinity problems using a‬‬
‫‪simplified water accounting model: the example of Zayandeh Rud basin, Iran. Research Report 5, IWMI.‬‬
‫‪Caudill, M. 1987. Neural networks primer: Part I, AI Expert, December, 46-52.‬‬

‫‪6‬‬
‫)‪Mean Square Error (MSE‬‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫)‪Normalized Mean Square Error (NMSE‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫)‪Regression Coefficient (r‬‬
‫‪9‬‬
‫‪Error‬‬
 ‫ﺩﻭﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﺧﺎﻙ‐ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ‬

Islam, N., S.Y. Liong, K.K. Phoon, and C.Y. Liaw. 2000. Forecasting of river flow data with general
regression neural network. In Proceedings International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources
Management, Davis, California, April.
Jain, A. K., J. Mao and K.M. Mohiuddin. 1996. Artificial neural networks: a tutorial. Computer, IEEE 31-44,
March.
Jain, S.K., A. Das, and D.K. Srivastava. 1999. Application of ANN for reservoir inflow prediction and
operation, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, ASCE, 125(5): 263-271.
Maren, A.J., C.T. Harston, and R.M. Pap. 1990. Handbook of neural computing applications, San Diego,
Calif., Academic Press.
McClelland, J.L., D.E. Rumelhart and the PDP research Group. 1986. Parallel distributed processing:
Explorations in the microstructure of cognition, Vol. 2, Cambridge, Mass., MIT Press.
Rosenblatt, F. 1962. Principles of Neuro-dynamics: Perceptrons and the Theory of brain mechanisms,
Washington, D.C., Spartan.
Rumelhart, D.E., J.L. McClelland, and the PDP Research Group. 1986. Parallel distributed processing:
Explorations in the microstructure of cognition, Vol. 1, Cambridge, Mass., MIT Press.
Specht, D.F. 1991. A general regression neural network. IEEE Transactions, Neural Networks, 2(6): 568-892.

DO ‫ ﻭ‬BOD ‫‐ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺷﺒﻴﻪ ﺳﺎﺯﯼ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎﯼ‬١ ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ‬

‫ﭘﺎﺭﺍﻣﺘﺮ ﮐﻴﻔﯽ‬ BOD DO

‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﻧﺮﻭﻧﯽ‬ 4-10-10-10 4-10-10-10
‫ﺭﻭﺵ ﺁﻣﻮﺯﺵ‬ Momentum Momentum
‫ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺤﺮﮎ‬ Tang Hyperbolic Tang Hyperbolic
‫ﺭﻭﺵ ﺗﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻭﺯﻧﻬﺎ‬ OnLine Batch
‫ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺁﻣﻮﺯﺵ‬ 470 1000
‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﺁﻣﻮﺯﺵ‬ ‫ﺻﺤﺖ ﻳﺎﺑﯽ‬ ‫ﺁﻣﻮﺯﺵ‬ ‫ﺻﺤﺖ ﻳﺎﺑﯽ‬
MSE ٠٫٠٠٩٩ 0.0138 0.0425 0.0160
NMSE 0.0504 0.2940 0.0204 0.0940
r 0.971 0.905 0.883 0.975
Error (%) 22.3 47.0 26.3 21.6
 ‫ﺩﻭﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﺧﺎﻙ‐ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ‬

‫ﺷﮑﻞ ‪ ‐١‬ﺣﻮﺯﻩ ﺁﺑﺮﻳﺰ ﺭﻭﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﺯﺍﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﻭﺩ‬

‫ﺷﮑﻞ‪ ‐٢‬ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﮐﻠﯽ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎﯼ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﻋﺼﺒﯽ ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ‬

 ‫ﺩﻭﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﺧﺎﻙ‐ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ‬

‫‪80.0‬‬
‫‪Observed‬‬ ‫‪ANN‬‬
‫‪70.0‬‬

‫‪60.0‬‬
‫)‪BOD (mg/L‬‬

‫‪50.0‬‬

‫‪40.0‬‬

‫‪30.0‬‬

‫‪20.0‬‬

‫‪10.0‬‬

‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬
‫‪Number of Measurement‬‬

‫ﺷﮑﻞ ‪ ‐٣‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﺯ ‪ ANN‬ﺑﺎ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﻩ ﺍﯼ ‪ BOD‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺻﺤﺖ ﻳﺎﺑﯽ‬

‫‪14.0‬‬
‫‪Observed‬‬ ‫‪ANN‬‬
‫‪12.0‬‬

‫‪10.0‬‬
‫)‪DO (mg/L‬‬

‫‪8.0‬‬

‫‪6.0‬‬

‫‪4.0‬‬

‫‪2.0‬‬

‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪70‬‬
‫‪Number of measurement‬‬

‫ﺷﮑﻞ ‪ ‐٤‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﺯ ‪ ANN‬ﺑﺎ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﻩ ﺍﯼ ‪ DO‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺻﺤﺖ ﻳﺎﺑﯽ‬
 ‫ﺩﻭﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻔﺮﺍﻧﺲ ﻣﻠﻲ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﺧﺎﻙ‐ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺷﻴﺮﺍﺯ‬

‫‪Observation‬‬ ‫‪ANN‬‬ ‫‪QUL2E‬‬

‫‪25‬‬

‫‪20‬‬
‫)‪BOD (mg/L‬‬

‫‪15‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪5‬‬

‫‪0‬‬
‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪110‬‬ ‫‪130‬‬ ‫‪150‬‬
‫)‪Distance from Swamp (km‬‬

‫ﺷﮑﻞ ‪ ‐٥‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﺯ ‪ ANN‬ﻭ ‪ QUAL2E‬ﺑﺎ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﻩ ﺍﯼ ‪ BOD‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺻﺤﺖ ﻳﺎﺑﯽ‬

‫‪Observation‬‬ ‫‪ANN‬‬ ‫‪QUL2E‬‬

‫‪12‬‬

‫‪10‬‬

‫‪8‬‬
‫)‪DO (mg/L‬‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫‪4‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪0‬‬
‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪110‬‬ ‫‪130‬‬ ‫‪150‬‬
‫)‪Distance from Swamp (km‬‬

‫ﺷﮑﻞ ‪ ‐٦‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﺯ ‪ ANN‬ﻭ ‪ QUAL2E‬ﺑﺎ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪﻩ ﺍﯼ ‪ DO‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺻﺤﺖ ﻳﺎﺑﯽ‬