Population Investigation Committee

Mauritius: Demographic Upsurge and Prospect

Author(s): H. C. Brookfield
Source: Population Studies, Vol. 11, No. 2 (Nov., 1957), pp. 102-122
Published by: Population Investigation Committee
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2172107
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 Mauritius: DemographicUpsurge and Prospect
By H. C. BROOKFIELD

The colony of Mauritius,with a population of some 550,000 (1955) on its

720 square miles (about equal to the countyof Surrey),has experienceda rate of
naturalincrease over 2% per annum in each year since 1946 and over 3% per
annumbetween195 0 and 195 3. A sharpincreaseinfertility hasbeenaccompanied
by an equally sharp fall in mortality,and the resultingpopulation increase,
unparalleledin the recenthistoryof the island, has given rise to grave disquiet
about the futurewelfareof the colony,whose lifedepends almost whollyon the
exportproductionof sugar cane. Five discussionsof thisproblemhave recently
appeared; among them the Report of a locally constitutedCommittee on
Population.' The publicationof thislatterReportpromptsthepresentdiscussion.
Figure i illustratesthe growthof populationin M4uritiussince the earlynine-
teenthcentury. The island was unoccupied when firstsettledby the Dutch in
I638, and virtuallyunoccupied when resettledby the French in 1735. The
French used Mauritiusmainlyas a strategicbase and considerablenumbersof
slaves were importedfromAfricaand Madagascar. Afterthe Britishoccupation
in I8I0 importationof slaves continued,largelyclandestinely,for some years.
About I820 sugar cultivationwas adopted as the main economic activity,and
has remaineddominantto this day. Labour shortagesoon appeared, and after
I834 large numbersof Indian labourerswere importedunder indenture. This
movementattainedits maximumproportionsbetween i840 and i865, and over
the whole period from I834 to 1925 therewas a net gain of 291,000 fromthis
source. Free immigrationhas added a net gain of 12,000 since i875; in recent
timesmost of the immigrantshave been Chinese.2
The present population is divided into three groups-the General, Indo-
Mauritianand Chinese. The General group compriseswhites,the descendants
of the Africanand Malagasy slaves, and principally,mixed bloods. Almost all
are Roman Catholic and French or Creolespeaking. The Indo-Mauritians,who
form67% of the whole, are mainlyHindu and Muslim, though thereare some
Christians,almostall Catholic. The Chinesegroup compriseChineseimmigrants
and their descendants. The classificationis essentiallytraditional and has
outlived its usefullife.The basis is generallythe surname,but intermarriage and
change of name afterconversionto Christianity make nonsense of this division
over wide fringegroups. Furthermorethereis no certaintythatthe classification
of a person is the same for the census as for vital registration. Often also, a
child enumeratedin one group may be born to a motherin another group.
This is a particularcomplicatingfactorbetweenthe Chineseand General groups.
' MauritiusLegislativeCouncil, SessionalPaper No. 4 of I955, ReportoftheCommittee onPopulation,
I953-54; Robequain, C., "Destin d'une ile a sucre; 1 'economie et le peuplementde Maurice",
Annalesde Giographie,LXIII. No. 338 Juillet-Aoiut
I954, pp. 25 5-273; Silberman,
L., "DerFallMauritius",
Geopolitik,
Zeitschriftfiir xxvi, Heft i i, Nov. I95 5, pp. 676-690; P.E.P., VorldPopulation
andResources,
(I955), pp. I23-I26; "The Population Problem in Mauritius", The TimesBritishColoniesReview,
No. zi, FirstQuarterI956, pp. 33-34.
2 Gross Indian immigration added 346,966males and I06,225 females. This figureis fairlyreliable,
but recordingof departuresand freemigrationhas neverbeen whollysatisfactory.
102
MAURITIUS: DEMOGRAPHIC UPSURGE AND PROSPECT 103

Lr. ~ -ILr

00
1;~~~~~~~~~0

04
Ii ~~~~~~~~0

__ - ~~00

Ii~~~~-

F-~~~F
0F--' C,,l--
104 HI. C. BROOKFIELD

Hence only very limited use is made of the " ethnic" classificationof the
populationin the followinganalysis.'

HISTORY(Figure z)
RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC
The recent upsurge was produced by the combined effectof a substantial
coupled withan unprecedentedfallin mortality.Its mainincidence
risein fertility
lay only in the shortperiod between I946 and i 95 I, since when therehas been
some narrowingof the gap between birthand death rates. In order to under-
stand the causes of the upsurge it is necessary brieflyto trace the recent
demographichistoryof the colony.

250 l_ l_l_l- INFANT MORTA ITY RATE |

RATES PER 1000

200 _ _ _ __ _-- 200

120 1-- 50

100 = = I100 1 _ 10
I \/~~~~~~~~~~~~0
80 = 101_ll

60 ___R_IAGE RA1IE
50 ___50

_ _ 30
430O IF
30 ew a_ BIR^THANIDDEATH
_ _ _
RkATES \5.: 20

1840 50 60 70 80 90 1900 10 20 30 40 50
FIGURE 2. The movementof vital rates. (Birth and death ratesin part from Kuczynski).

Until lately the population of Mauritius has grown chieflyby immigration.

Afterrapid-labour migrationcame to an end, there ensued a long period of
stability,duringwhich high birthrateswere offsetby high death rates and the
balance of the sexes steadilyapproached equality (Figure I). Natural increase
was appreciableonly at two periods beforethe I940S. The firstlay in the decade
or so aftera disastrousmalariaepidetnicin I867-9.2 The secondupsurgeoccurred
1 R. R. Kuczynski,Demographic SurveyoftheBritishColonialEmpire,Vol. ii, (I949) made considerable
use of the ethnicclassification puzzled by the inconsistencies.He does not appear
and was frequently
to have realisedthattheethnicgroupsof the Census and the Civil StatusOfficeare not necessarilycom-
parable.
2 It is possiblethatthesubsequentdeclinein thebirthrate(Figurez) afterthe i88os maybe influenced
by a declinein the qualityof birthrecording. Mauritiuswas enteringon a prolongedphase of bad times
afterthe i88os, and muchin the island suffered fromit. The census reportswere no exception: there
are manyreasonsforregardingthe i 8 8 I censusas thebesttakenin theislandbeforeI 9.52
 MAURITIUS: DEMOGRAPHIC UPSURGE AND PROSPECT I05

betweenI9I6 and I 925, withaninterruption epidemic,

in I9I9 duetotheinfluenza
afterwhichit attaineda maximumintheearlyI9zos. This latterperiodcommands
attentionas it occurredin conditionscomparablein some respectswiththose of
1946-5I. The sugarindustry enjoyeda boombetweenI9I6 and I920, and since
the demand forlabour generatedby the boom could no longerbe met by labour
immigration,wages rose sharply.1 In I922, a day labourer in the canefields
receiveda wage rangingbetweenRs. z and Rs. 32 a day. This seemed to satisfy
materialwants adequatelyat thattime,as therewere widespreadcomplaintsthat
wage increaseswere merelyfollowed by increasesin absenteeism. At the same
timeanti-malarial workswereprosecutedwithfreshenergy,and an anti-hookworm
campaignwas instituted
in I922.
The sugarindustryboom did not last,but employmentdid not at once diminish
as the long ratooningcycle practisedin Mauritiusensuredthatmost of the addi-
tional cane planted in the boom would continue to be cultivateduntil it was
exhausted. Wages fellonly gradually,but by 1927 a day labourergot only from
50 to 75 cents per day in the intercropseason and from75 cents to Rs. I.25 in
the crop season. By I929, the annual ColonialReportstatedthat
"Undernourishment is becominga veryseriouscause of illnessand the risingdeath
to thiscause."
rateis largelyattributable
By 1932
" Male daylabourersreceivedon theaverage45 centsper day (in theintercrop
season)
....Female labourersgenerallygethalfthewages of malelabourers."
Wages were now at a minimumlevel forthe maintenanceof life. A fallin the
price of rice in 193I had made possible an appreciablewage cut.3 In thisperiod,
declinedverysharply,and from 1930 until 1933 deaths exceeded births.
fertility
Malaria and other diseases took a great toll, and, largely through financial
stringency,the anti-hookwormcampaign was abandoned as a failure,while
anti-malaria workswererestricted to theimmediateenvironsof theuplandtowns.4
1 In thisperiod of labour shortagetherewas a renewedattemptto obtainIndian labour. It was un-
successful. In his speech to the LegislativeCouncil in I923 the Governor complainedthat" it is to
be regrettedthatcertainpoliticalinfluencesin India should apparentlypersistin dissuadingpeople who
are now strugglingunder adverse circumstancesfromcoming to this countrywhere thousandsand
thousandsof theircompatriotshave alreadyfoundwealth (sic),educationand political importance."
ColonialReport,Mauritius,I923.
2 The MauritiusRupee is on par withthe Indian Rupee. Exchange rateis Rs. 13 33 to the LX.
3 " Owing to thepronouncedfallin thepriceof foodstuffs duringtheyearit was possiblestillfurther
to reducewages to meetthenecessitycreatedby thefallingpriceof sugar . . . as a resultof thereduced
scale of wages, the numberof femalesemployedin agricultureis markedlyincreasing." ColonialReport,
Mauritius,1932. All otherwages were reducedin keepingwiththefallin sugarlabour pay,and it was
noted thatmalariaand ankylostomiasis were causingseriousloss of efficiency.The labour supplywas
" satisfactory". A Colonial OfficeCommissionnotedcritically thatthepositionof thepoor was further
worsenedby heavydirectand indirecttaxation." On a rough estimateit maysafelybe said thattheex-
penditureofthepoorestclassesincludesa customsdutyof Is. 4d. on everyLI ofexpenditure."Altogether
not less than I2% of the familyincomeof the poorestclasseswent to governmentrevenue,while the
chargeon a manwhose incomewas Rs.5o,oooperannumwas onlyabout 8%. (ColonialOffice,Cmd.4034
ReportofCommission ofMauritius(I93 z), pp. I9Off.
ontheFinancialSituation
" Whentheankylostomiasis campaignwas abandonedin I935 it was statedthatthecentralgovernment
could no longer " usefullyintervene". Mass distributionof drugs, however, was continued. Also
in I935 it was statedthatmalariameasuresbelow 6oo feetwere abandonedas " not useful". (Colonial
Report,Mauritius,I93-). In factthe restrictionwas even greaterthanthis,and untilI943 new workwas
confinedto the immediatevicinityof the townsin Plaines Wilhems. (A. Rankine,Malariain Mauritius
withsuggestionsforfuture tothisdisease(PortLouis, GovernmentPrinter,195 1), p. 7.
policyinregard
io6 H. C. BROOKFIELD

As conditionsimproved during the later thirtieswages rose gradually-a male

seasonsof 1935 and 1936-
daylabourergotfrom50 to 6o centsin theintercrop
but naturalincrease was resumed and the birth rate rose as the larger cohort
produced in the I9I6-25 period began to enterreproductiveages.
After 1939, unemploymentwas soaked up by recruitmentof the Mauritius
Pioneer Corps, and higher sugar prices led to an upward pressureon wages,
After1942, however, food became very shortand health deteriorated. Malaria
incidencerose and undernourishment was common. A nutritionsurvey team
reporteda close connectionbetween malnutritionand the incidenceof malaria,
hookworm, and other diseases.' The survey found a general deficiencyin
calories,particularlyin theintercropseason,and verymarkedvitamindeficiencies.
Deficiencies,and theirsymptoms,were of serious dimensionsamong the poor
and were greater in the malarial coastal zone than in the higher country.
Generallythey were more marked among Hindus than among Muslims and
Christians.
This period of stringencyculminatedin a yearof veryhigh mortalityin 1945,
when the second most devastatingcyclone in the island's historyhalved the
sugar crop, wreakedimmensedestruction,and led to greatlyincreasedincidence
of disease among a weakened population. In I946 therewas a furthermalaria
peak, but it was the last. During the war Britishforcesstationedin the island
had carried out efficientanti-malariaworks around their camps, and, with a
guaranteeof finance,the governmentbegan a campaignof unprecedentedvigour
in I945. By I948 malaria incidencehad been reduced by half; the death rate
began to fall sharplyin 1947 and the infantmortalityratefell below I20 forthe
firsttime on record in the same year. In I946 preliminaryexperimentswith
residualinsecticideswere carriedout, and in 1949 residualsprayingof habitations
was extendedto the whole island. This was successfulin eliminatingthe main
carrier,A. Funestus, in two seasons; the chain of transmissionwas broken and
afterI 951 newinfection ceased. In
virtually I950 thecrudedeathratestoodat
only I 3 *9, while the infantmortalityratefellto 76-3.
The movement of fertilitydid not exactly coincide with that of mortality.
The birthrateshotup in 1944, withan increaseof4,600 birthson 1943, a pheno-
menon attributedto increasein marriage,due to familyallowances paid to men
joiningtheforces. In I945 and 1946 thecrudebirthratestoodaround38-39,
thenin I947 and 1948 rose to 43 and 44, afterwhichit rose to 46-o in 1949
and 49-7 in 1950. The numberof birthscontinued to increaseuntil1952, when
the crude birthratereacheda second peak of 48-I.
While theeradicationof malariawas undoubtedlyresponsibleforthemagnitude
of the increase, the fundamentalfactor was a general improvementof living
standardsand consequentlyof health, accompanyingthe prolonged boom in
thesugarindustry.By 1947, day labourersreceivedRs. 2-40 a dayin theintercrop
and theiraveragewage laybetweenRs. 3 and Rs. 4 in 1952. Real wages increased
by lessthanthis. In 1947, a costoflivingindexusing1939 =I00 stoodbetween
1 F. A. Wilson,Final Report: Nutritional
Investigations I942-45, (Port Louis, Government
inMauritius,
Printer,1946).
 MAURITIUS: DEMOGRAPHIC UPSURGE AND PROSPECT I07

225 and 263. In 1952 a new indexusing I946=IOO stood aroundI 50.1 In
I947, therefore,realwageswereaboutdoublepre-war, but subsequentincrease
has been small. Greateremployment and higherwages forcasual femaleand
juvenilelabourhaveundoubtedly madeforsomerealincreases in familyincome,
but therewerefew membersof the workingclass whose averagewage stood
above Rs. 6 per day, while a substantial proportionearnedless than Rs. 3.
Absenteeism due to illnesshas declined,but absenteeismfromothercauseshas
remainedstable.
Table i, showingtherelation oftheactualand" lifetable"age-sexcompositions
for 1944 and 1952 demonstrates thedegreeof changethathas takenplace. In
I944 a long periodof stability had broughtabout a close fitof the actualand
stationarypyramids.

Table I.2 Actualas Percentage

of Life TablePopulation.

I944 1952
Age Males Females Males Females
0- 4 . ... ... I03 io8 206 2I8
5- 9 ... ... .. IO9 I 12 '47 ' 59
IO-I4 ... ... ... I04 io6 I15 123
I5-I9 ... ... ... I I6 io8 117
20-24 ... ... ... IOI I09 I05 III
25-29 ... ... ... 88 98 II3 113
30-34 ... ... 9 94 9I 87
35-39 ... ... * go90 88 82 84
40-44 ... ... 94 89 73 70
45-49 ... ...9I 8o 65 59
50-54 .1 . ... I03 90 6z 57
55-59 ... ... 92 75 51 49
60-64. ... ... I05 90 51 54
65-69 .105 82 4' 51

70-74 ..1 2.. ... I24 9I 32 38

75-79 ... ... .. I26 8z 31 36
80-84 ... ... ... I I26 28 31
85 + ... ... 304 i8z 47 36

In I95 2 notonlyhadthemortality picturecompletelychanged,buttheincrease

createda 0-4 groupmorethantwicethesizeofthecorresponding
in thefertility
groupin thestablepopulation.3
Up to 1952, populationmovements showedveryclose correlation withcon-
ditionsof healthand wellbeing. Fertilityand mortality wereprobablydirectly
linkedthroughhealth. Betterhealthaffects notonlymortality, butalso concep-
tionsand theproportion leadingto live births.
of conceptions
Particularinterestthereforeattachedto pOst-I952 movements,when the rate
and number of birthsfell substantiallyin x953, 1954, 1955 and 1956, the fall
in theIndianand laterin theGeneralgroup. The deathratehas
first
occurring
I LabourDepartment,
AnnualReports, 1946-1955passim.The CostofLivingIndex relatedto agricultural
labourers.
Table,1947(1947);
2 Colonyof Mauritius,MauritiusLife LifeTable of thePopulation
ofMauritius,
1972
(1955). Theperiods coveredbytheseLifeTableswereI942-46 andl95I-53 respectively.
3 In 1944 the absence of some 8,ooo males overseasis partlyresponsibleforthe sex-agedistribution
betweenzo and 30. The returnof thesemen to the island afterthe war was an importantsubsidiary
factorin fertility,
but its effectis swampedby greaterfactors.
io8 H. C. BROOKFIELD

fluctuatedsomewhat, rising for two years, then again falling sharply. These
movementshave not yetbeen sufficiently prolongedto discerntrendsor suggest
causes, but a few tentativeobservationsmay be made. The fall in the crude
birthrate has been much greaterin the wholly rural than in the partlyurban
districts,virtuallyeliminating,in fact,any differentialthat mightbe recognised
from 1952 data. Any real differential, in fact,must be limited to the urban
areas proper of Plaines Wilhems,and probably to the elite withinthose areas.
This generalfall in the crude birthrate,however,is a phenomenonof no small
importanceto Mauritius; if it can be regarded as in any sense " voluntary",
it may representa clear break fromthe high fertilitypatternsof the past. It
maywell be, however,thatit is governedby a fallin realwages and some tendency
for increased unemployment. Certainlythe wind of bad times was to be felt
in Mauritiusin I954, as a resultof a small drop in the sugar price,and the fear
communicateditselfverywidelythroughthe community.'
The fluctuationsin the death rate are more easily examined. Nearly all the
increase in deaths between 1951 and 1954 was due to enteritisand diarrhcea,
which accounted for I7720% of all deaths in the latteryear. These diseases,
together with anxmia, deficiencydiseases, debility and " fever, unspecified"
accountforabout one-thirdof all deaths; theyare clearlyrelatedto ankylostomiasis
and the other helminthiases,to dirt and bad housing, and in the long run to
the poverty and slum conditions in which most Mauritians live.2 In these
circumstances,the death rate may be expected to fluctuate. It is noteworthy,
however,thatthe districtsshowing the greatestrise in death ratesbetween I952
and 1954 were not those showing the greatestfall in the birthrate. No direct
correlationmay thereforebe made.

THXE CONTEMPORARY DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION

The computationspresentedin the Reportof the Committee on Populationare
based on 1952 census data and on the life table constructedaround that year.
My computationsare based partlyon the same data, and partlyon more recent
data giving birthsby age of mother,which firstbecame available in 1955. A
new ordinance, requiringthis form of registration,was gazetted in October
I954 and came into effect on Januaryi st, 195 5. By courtesyof the Director of
Statistics,Mr. M. V. M. Herchenroder,the firstsix months' resultswere made
available to me. They yieldeddistributionsof childrenbyage of motheras follows,
shown in comparison with the distributioncomputed in the colony's Central
StatisticalOffice(CSO) fromthe 1952 census,when women were asked to state
theirtotal numberof live-bornchildren.
195 5 figuresare based only on six months'returns,which is admittedlya very
short sample period, but the internalconsistencyof the table greatlystrength-
ens the possibilitythat the whole is an accurate representation. The Chinese
group, which contains the greatest anomalies, is very small. There are very
considerable differencesbetween the distributionrevealed for 1955 and that
1 See Appendix i.
2
Cause of death data are now, perhaps,reliableenough foruse. This was not so untilveryrecent
years,and earlierwriterson healthconditionsin Mauritiushave generallyclassedthemas useless.
 MAURITIUS: DEMOGRAPHIC UPSURGE AND PROSPECT IO9

derivedindirectlyfromthe 1952 census by the CSO; given the age composition

of the Mauritian population, the resultantdifferencesin derived age-specific
rates have a substantialeffect.
fertility

Table z. Percentage ofbirthsbyageofmother

distribution
.otal
General group Indo-M. group Chinese group Total 15 1952

Age ... F T F T F T F T T

10-I4 ... 01 O1 0-4 0-4 -o-.3 02 5o0

15-19 ... 8-8 8.4 17.6 i8.5 5 9 5.2 14-6 15.0 I3.2
20-24 ... 24 4 27.2 26-6 26.4 32.4 30-I 26-2 26.7 20-I
25-29 ... 310 29-2 25.2 24.9 28.7 3I-I 27-0 26.4 22.4
30-34 *-- 20-9 20.4 I8.3 17.9 14-0 14.6 I9-0 i8.5 I9-2
35-39 ... 110 103 92 9.I I32 13-8 9.9 97 I3.7
40-44 ... 3 7 3.8 2. 5 2.7 3.7 4.2 2z8 3.1 5.6
45-49 ... O0 | 0 2 0-2 0 2 2-2 | I0 0-2 0,2 o-8

The followingare gross and net reproductionrates for 1952, computed with
thetwo seriesof maternalage distributions.Mortalityis fromthe 195 2 lifetable.
CSO HCB'
GRR, 1952 ... ... ... ... 3-I92 3-070
NRR, 1952 ... ... ... ... 2-436 2-366
Mean lengthof a
generation(years) ... ... 29-05 27.98
For 1955, rateswerecomputedby doublingthesix-months birthsforeach group
to obtain a year'stotal,while the femalequinquennialage groups were obtained
by applying the mortalityexperienceof the 1952 life table population to the
correspondingcohortsin the 1952 census. A comparisonof femalesat the re-
productive agesin 195 2 and 1955 is as follows: I952 1955
I0-14 ... ... ... ... .. 23,722 28,356
I5-19 ... ... ... ... ... 22,372 24,40I
20-24 ... ... ... ... 20,876 I2,746
25-29 ... ... ... ... ... 20,647 22,237
.15 ... ,
30-34 5,230 I8,783
35-39 ... ... ... ... ... I4,I73 14,335
40-44 ... ... ... ... 11,28o1 13,1I6
45-49 ... ... ...
* ... 9,147 I 0,028

ages of 2z-29 makes the reductionin

The small increasein the peak-fertility
the number of births particularlyeffectivein reducing reproductionrates, as
follows: GRR I955 NRR 19552
Generalgroup ... ... ... 2-434
Indo-M. group ... ... ... 2-588
Chinesegroup ... ... ... 2-786

Total ... ... ... .. 2-545 I-962

Mean lengthof a generation: ... 27 87 years

1 Using 1955 maternal-agedistributionand mortality fromthe I944 lifetable,the followingfigures
were computedfor 1944:
GRR, 1944: 2 -374 NRR, 1944: I -256
Mean lengthof a generation: 27-65 years.
It is noteworthythatKuczynski(p. 870), using onlyverycrudeassumptionsabout age-specificfertility,
arrivedat a GRR of 2 -38 forI944.
2 Mortalityfromthe 1952 lifetable,whichis not dividedethnically.
110 H. C. BROOKFIELD

Furtherlight on the nature of the differentials between the ethnic groups,

so faras these are valid, can be obtained fromTable XV (Fertility)of the 1952
census. The followingtabulationis computedfromthese data:

Table 3.

Gen. Ind. Chi. Total

% of women returnedas mothers,aged I5 +. ... 56.27 73.60 64 77 67.36
% of women returnedas mothers,aged 45 +. ... 68-42 8o-2I 8iv84 75 48
Average numberof childrenper motheraged I5 + 4.41 4. I9 4'73 4.27
Average numberof childrenper motheraged 45 + 5 57 5-43 5_58 5 49

in size of average or completed

There is thus comparativelylittledifference
familybetweenthe threegroups,but a veryconsiderabledifference in the propor-
tion of women remainingsingle or childless:
Gen. Ind. Chi.
% of women I5+ " never married"' ... 30'99 10. 53 25.36
% of women 20-24 " never married" ... 48-9I II-34 28- 23
% ofwomen 30-35 widowed ... ... ... 3*93 6-49 3*44

Marriage and childbearingoccur much earlier among females of the Indo-

Mauritiangroup than among those of the General and Chinese groups. Among
the General group marriageis unusuallylate,and a high proportionof the group
remainunmarried.However, this" preventivecheck " seemsto have diminished.
In 1944, 35 6% of the femalesof the General group aged i 5 and over were un-
married,including6o% of thoseaged 20-24. A similartrend,thoughless marked
in view of the smallerrange of movementpossible, was noticeable among the
other two groups. It is possible, however, that a part of this development
representsmerelyimproved recordingof defactounions. At earlierdates it is
quite certainthat the recordingof these unions and of non-civil marriagesof
Indians was veryimperfect.
THE FUTURE POPULATION
The followingis a summaryof six populationprojections:

Table 4.

I2 3 4 5 6

I952 ... ... 501,400 50I,224 50I,224 50I1,224 513,344 5I3,344

1957 ... ... 582,890 572,670 566,429 577,284 577,284
1962 ... ... 5 92,300 677,860 649,474 622,o059 632,8I2 63 I,770
I967 ... 788,320 733,585 684,66I 695,332 69I,367
1972 ... ... 699,700 9i6,760 828,249 75 5,907 768,0I4 759,314
I977 ... ... 936,677 838,4I3 85 3,144 829,I29
1982 ... ... 826, 500 I,065o,525 930,744 947,476 897,799

I. C.S.O., Mauritius,
1953
2. C.S.O., Mauritius,1955
3. Colonial Office,1954
4. data
3, revisedwith I955 fertility
5. 3,revisedas above,withrevised1952 base
and mortality
6. Assumingdecliningfertility
1 " married" includesdefactounions.
 M AUTRITTITS: DFMOGR APHI-TC TTPSTTRGF ANDT PROSPECT IT

Projectioni is an interimforecastmade by the C.S.O. from I952 computed

fertilitywith mortalityfrom the 1944 life table. It was abandoned when the
I95 2 lifetablewas completed,but is includedhere to show the effect
of mortality
at I944 levels.
Projectionz is the revisionof Projection i, with I952 mortality. Both i and
z were preparedby computingthe intrinsicrate of naturalincreasefromthe net
reproductionrate and simplyapplyingthisby compound interestformulato the
1952 population.
3 was preparedin the Colonial Office,using the componentmethod.
Projection
Age specificfertilityis takenfromthe C.S.O. computations,while S yearsurvival
rates were derived directlyfromthe mortalitystatisticsby the formula:
Chance of survival mid-yearpopulation- 4l deaths
mid-yearpopulation+zl deaths
Full details of the workingsheets of this projectionare printedin the Report
oftheCommittee onPopulation.
Projectionsz and 3 both assume that I95 2 fertility and mortality
would remain
unchanged. Projection 4 is a modificationof Projection 3 preparedin the light
of 1955 experience. Survival data remainunchanged,but birthsare modified.
For the period I95 2-7, the annual numberof birthswas takenas:
(average of I 9 5I -3) + (Jan.-JuneI 955 x z)

distributedaccording to I955 experience. For subsequent years, I955 age-

specificfertility was used.
S uses the same survivaland fertility
Projection data as Projection4, but is based
on a revised I 95 2 population. This was made desirableby an evidentunderstate-
ment of very young children in the I 952 census, and by the need to make
allowance for the MauritiusPioneer Corps,whose continuedemploymentseems
problematical. The numberwho did not state theirage were also distributed
throug;hthe populationin this computation.1
The correctionwas as follows:
i. Understatement
ofyoung children
For each yearof age fromo-6 in the I952 census,the correspondingbirthswere obtainedfromthe
reportsand were reduced in accordancewith survivalrates to mid-age obtained
Registrar-General's
graphicallyfromthe I952 lifetable.
I952 Corresponding Revised
Census births* Survivalt Figure
0-I ... ... I7,395 23,544 0 920 zi,66o
I-2 . . I7,5I6 23,039 o- 88o 20,274
2-3 ... ... I8,827 2I,79I 0 863 i8,8o6
3-4 .. ... I7,262 'I9,755 o852 I6,83I
4-5 ... ... I5,729 I8,982 0 848 I6,097
5-6 ... ... I 5,I07 I7,677 0- 845 I4,937
* The I952 censuswas takenon June28-29. Birtbscorrespondingto theo-i groupwerethen(j I95I)
plus ( I952), for I-2, ( I950) plus (I I95I), and so on.
t The I952 lifetable was constructedon a revisedpopulationat youngages. No detailsare given.
Understatement is clearlyvirtuallyconfinedto thefirsttwo yearsof life,in which the shortfallnumbered
4,265 and 2,758. A round figureof 7,000 was therefore added to the 0-4 age group, divided equally
betweenthesexes.
2. Adjustment to de jurepopulation
The 1952 censusgave the difference betweenthe defactoand dejurefiguresas 6,I44, of whom almost
all weremembersof theMauritiusPioneerCorps,servingin theCanal Zone. Attributing I,ooo of these

B
II2 H. C. BROOKPIELD

The effectof this roughupwardadjustment becomesmarkedabout 1972,

whenthepresent generationofyoungchildren enterreproductive ages.
Projection6 examinescrudelytheeffect of a possiblemovement and
of fertility
mortality, along " normal" lines. Fertilitydeclineis assumedto steepen;
mortalitydeclineto be greatest at youngages,and to ceasefurther improvement
after197z. Detailsaregivenin Appendix2.
The fertility assumption would reduceMauritianfertility to levels akin to
those now experienced in the higherfertility regionsof westernEurope by
I982. This is probably a maximum assumption of whatcan be achieved. It is
basedon an interpretation of thepost-1 952 trend as at leastin parttheresultof
a voluntary process. The gravamenof the ReportoftheCommittee onPopulation
was a plea formasseducationin birthcontrol,notexcludingtheuse of contra-
ceptives. Though half the committeememberswere Catholics,only two
dissentedfromthisview,one essentially on " Socialist" grounds. However,
thefactremains thatthestrength oftheCatholicChurchhasso farbeentheleading
obstacleto open discussionof birthcontrolin Mauritius.It maywell be that
the assumptionof sustaineddeclinein fertility is not valid; manycontrary
arguments areadmissible.
The declinein mortality allowedforis onlysmallexceptat theyoungest ages,
whereitis expectedthattheestablishment ofsocialwelfarecentres andimprove-
mentof otherhealthserviceswillhavemosteffect.It is to be presumed thatan
energeticpolicyaimedat further mortality reductionwillbe pursued.
Turningnowto theresults, itis at oncereadilyapparent thatdespitesubstantial
and growingdifferences in fertilitybetweenthemaximum andminimum assump-
tions,theprojectedpopulationsdo not beginto divergeappreciably untilafter
about 1970. The followingtablepresentscertainderivedstatistics computed
fromthelasttwo projections:
Table S. ; and 6-some derivedstatistics
Projections
1952 1957 I962 - I967 1972 1977 1982

Age distribution: % % % %
Projection 5 0-14 ** 40.59 4o0 82 37'53 39- 26
M I 5-49 . 25 I I 24.36 25.46 24.24
F 15-49 ... i228o 22-94 24.52 23.53
over 5? ... I" 50 II *88 I2.49 12.97
Projection6 0-14 ... 40'59 4o063 35.96 34.6I
M 15-49 ... 25.11 24 49 26- ii 26-o4
F 15-49 ... 22 8o 22-95 25 07 25s25
over So ... 15 I0I * 194 i2z86 I4.I0

Child/womanratio:
Projection5 ... ... ... 871.59 724'04 704 I0 757*94
Projection6 ... ... ... 87I 59 693 26 6o2z36 547'82

Crude birthrates:
Projection3 ... ... ... 43 6 42 7 4I 7 415 4I 4 43 7
Projection
5 ... ... ... 40'3 352 33'5 36.5 38.4 38.2
Projection6 ... ... ... 40'3 33 4 3I*3 31 * 29-7 27 7
-952 1957 I962 I967 1972 I977 1982

toRodrigues equallyamongthethreemalequinquennial
leaves5,144 toMauritius.Thiswasdistributed
groupsfrom20 to 34.
3. Thebasisusedfortheseadjustments wasthefigure inthecensus,
of50o,200printed notthefigure
intheReport
of50I,224 printed oftheCommittee 3 and4. Thelatter
andusedin Projections
onPopulation
figure persons
seemstoinclude24 additional whodidnotstatetheirage.
 MAURITIUS: DEMOGRAPHIC UPSURGE AND PROSPECT I13

Up to I982, the assumptionsof Projection6 would produce no greatincrease

in the proportionof adults,though a considerablechange in the proportionsof
childrenand old people. The child/womanratio will in any case fall fromits
presenthigh figure,and therewill also be a fallin the crude birthrateas the age-
compositionof thepopulationchanges,even withoutanyfallin fertility.Without
continuedfall,however,both values will rise again towardthe end of the period.
An importantconclusion emerges. Importantthough a decline in fertility is,
it cannot be expectedto stabilisethe populationquickly. Declining fertility will
have this effectin the long run, but in the short run the controllingfactoris
mortality. In a population so constitutedby age as thatof Mauritius,declining
is largelynullifiedby thegrowingsize of thecohortsenteringreproductive
fertility
life. Even were fertility to fallimmediatelyto West European levels,population
would still increaserapidlyfor a time as the presentenlarged youthfulcohorts
replace the smallergroups of previous generations. Table i gives a ready im-
pressionofthevolume of thepotentialincreasefromthiscause alone madepossible
by the recentdeclinein mortality.
A verysharpincreasein mortality indeed would be needed to arrestthegrowth
of population withinthe next generation. To be effective, it would have to be
of such a scale as to strikehard at the adolescentsand young adults-the most
vigorous in the population. Any such catastrophewould most certainlybe
combated with great vigour, and the populationwhich emerged would still be
capable of rapid increase. For illustrationwe need look no furtherthan the
aftermath of the Mauritiusmalariaepidemicof I867-9 (Figure z).1
The Committee on Populationbelieve that:
"either . . . from eventual voluntary acceptance of family limitation, or through a
significantincreasc in mortality . . . the trend of annual increase will have been checked
long before the population will have increascd to one million. " (p. 9)
This conclusiondisregardssome of the facts. Even the unlikelycombinationof
with temporarilyrising mortalitywould be unlikelyto
steadilyfallingfertility
produce even interimstabilitybelow 900,000, and it is improbablethatWestern-
typefertilitycan be attainedwithouta furtherfallin mortality. The chances of
the population failingto reach a millionare now remote. Graphicalprojections
of the semi-logarithmic curves of Projectionsz to 6 intersecti,OOO,ooo at dates
rangingfrom I975 to 1995. Rising mortalitycould delay the increase,but it
would be wholly unrealisticto thinkand plan for a population of less than a
millionby or beforethe end of the century. The most thatcan be hoped from
familyplanning,provided thatit is adopted swiftly,is stabilisationat littleover
a million,and possibly a subsequentreductionto more manageable levels.

THE POPULATION PROBLEM

The presenttime is by no means the firstoccasion on which the cryof over-
population has been raised in Mauritius. Fears were expressedat various times
during the nineteenthcentury,when Mauritius was perhaps the most densely
1 See also E. F. Heckscher," SwedishpopulationtrendsbeforetheIndustrialRevolution", Economic
HistoryReview,Second series,II, 3, (I950), 266-277, where severalperiodsof rapid upsurgefollowing
disaster-" weedingout the old and the weak "-were noted.
114 H. C. BROOKFIELD

peopled territoryof equal or largersize in the world. Later, both in I907 and
in I909 the annual ColonialReportsdeclared flatlythat sugar productionwas at
its maximum; on the formeroccasion a limited" wages fund" which should
limit population was postulated. In the depressionperiod around I93 I, when
conditionsin Mauritiuswere worse than at any previous time,it was said that:
by ig20 then,Mauritiushad a populationwhichto all intentsand purposeshad
reachedsaturationpoint."1
All these views were proved wrong by events, and the fact should make us
pause beforeacceptingpresent-dayMalthusianthinkingtoo readily. Figure 3,
which shows the progress of moving averages of sugar production,area and
population,and of yield and productionper head, demonstratesthat in I907 a
major improvementwas in fact in progress,and in the middle of the Great
Depression, a very substantialincreasein yield per arpentwas in full train. At
the end of the series,all the curves are moving upward, but with the difference
that the curves of sugar production per head, and, still more significantly, of
the productof the crop in rupeesper head, are now moving upwardsless rapidly
than the curve of population.
Mauritius is no simple case of an overpopulated peasant country: on the
contrary,productionis highlyspecialisedforexporton the world market. There
is no real peasant class in the island and very littletrue subsistencecultivation.
Though thereis a group of cultivatorswho work on theirown account, their
main productis for sale. The mass of Mauritiansdraw all or the major part of
their subsistencefrom wage labour, and the overwhelmingbulk of foodstuffs
consumed are importedfromwithout.
Furthermore,Mauritiusis not burdenedby the wastefulover-employment in
primaryproduction that characterisesthe typical" underdeveloped country".
Some 58% of a work forcethatnumberedI63,908 in I952 were engaged in the
secondary and tertiarysectors of the economy. The sugar industry,which
supplies over 99% of the exportincome, employsdirectlyonly about one-third
of the working population, though it employs all but a few thousands of the
work forceengaged in primaryproduction.
This notwithstanding,Mauritius has a static problem in the sense that
productivityand income per head are low, and that the numbersof population
in relationto the developmentof the colony make for inefficient use of labour
resources. However, the real problem in Mauritiusis not static,but dynamic.
It arises fromthe currentand prospectiverapid growthof population. Due to
the age structure,the impact of this growth has only just begun to be felt.
Though the populationin I952 was almost ioo,ooo greaterthan it had been ten
yearsearlier,the numberin employmentgrew by only a fractionof this figure.
The male population aged between I 5 and 64 was only a few hundredlargerin
I95 2 than in i88i, and grew by only io% between I944 and I952. The work
force grew by 7% in the same period (Figure 4). Growth has so far resulted
chieflyin an increasedburdenof dependency: theemployedfractionof thewhole
fellfrom 8 s0/ in I92i and ;7 i0/in I9)44 to only 32 7 /in Iqz2.
"
1 D. Drysdale Anderson," The point of population saturation; its transgressionin Mauritius,
Biology,
Human i, 4 (1930), 528.
 MAURITIUS: DEMOGRAPHIC UPSURGE AND PROSPECT II5

GV3H 83d NOI 83d

/N01 83d _S _ /S33dnf
<f r 2 z--i X-

AN 4-Q. I - I
LU~~~~L

A1o(1S)a
Z~~~~~~Z
o 00~0

11 1--
U) ~ ~ )

__ f
-t8
LUI

T1_ 0t l 1 1110 lz

o _~~~~~~L
Z ~~~~
crS IIIIJ o 0~
,__ (9 U)@ I' ___ I I ____
ZI B I
i

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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-

---_ --- --r- 3

 H. C. BROOKFIELD

Fromthepointofviewoflaboursupplythepresent a " hinge"

timerepresents
of
betweena period relativestability and a periodofveryrapidgrowth. On the
basis of projectionspresented'inthispaper,and assumingthatonlyone-third
of thewholepopulationis employedthe I 5-64 malegroupwill probablyhave
increased byfully6o,oooby I972 andcouldnumberbetweenz 50,000 and 325,000
by I98z. Provisionforthelatterfigurewouldentaila doublingof employment

DISTRICTS& TOWNS
Tote!Populbon.
.5 LOCATION 0 oso
M SAMEIQUE MILES 3 j
-?Me/es Ma $ ed 5-4. 2 400000

Tote! 6e171f1//1,'
Occupled CJRENIONI
( - 300.000-I
TOte!;hn lk4,491/tCe/0 SCAR (Fr) O
MADAG 8 4
200000
--occupetcs. J _
___ Tot,i end
fi1'fe/iodufctuAr/g 6 / ,,..,

Cornstructo?n/nwdustr/ex. : ___- /g

50,000 _________

40.000 'to_./ '

30,000 ,. - /

20,000

20,000 '/-.,'

5.003 -<8
15,000

4,000
4.000 ....l...../''''v'\i

2,000

1,000
, .ras -r. .' Fr, ar co as r a) rO 'iO r c'o O N i CO? ar r ) co a Z a] co a) a - "
co-a-sascoa

I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
PORT PAMPLE RIV.DU FLACQ GRAND SAVANNE BLACK PLAINESMAURITIUS
MOKA WILHEMS
LOUIS MOUSSES REMPART PORT RIVER

FIGURE 4. Certainaspects of the movement and distributionof the work

force.
(Occupation and industrydata for censuses up to and including 193I were
obtained by re-groupingof the classes in the appropriatetables.)

opportunitiesin a generation, and thiswould not be theend. It could also be

thatfemaleparticipation in economicactivitywill increase,thoughthis has
remainedrelatively staticforthepastfortyyears. Over thewholeislandabout
of thelabourforceis female,district
one-fifth proportions rangingfromI4 *5%
in thenorthto over25% in thesouth.
The Committee on Populationcarefully of increasing
consideredthepossibilites
productivityin Mauritius,withthe aim of determining the additionalincome
 MAURITIUS: DEMOGRAPHIC UPSURGE AND PROSPECT II7

thatmightbe expected. Then, takinga 19 52 average of about Rs. i,ooo per head
(C75) per annum as a " desirable level of living standardto be maintained"
theyarrivedat an acceptable maximumof 6oo,ooo for the island's population.
They mentioned,but did not consider,the problemof employment.'
The problem of productivityand employmentis perhaps best consideredby
separatingprimary,secondaryand tertiaryactivities. Primaryproductionis the
basis of all income in Mauritius,and has increasedenormouslyin recentyears.
However, it has not generatedincreasedemployment. Employmentin the sugar
industry has variedbetween50,000 and 6o,ooo sinceabout I890. Duringthe
same period productionhas grown by more than 350?% while the input of land
and labour have only varied but not greatlyincreased. Application of capital
in many formsis the principalfactorresponsible. The startlingfact therefore
emergesthatin all but one of the ruraldivisionsof theisland the male population
between I5 and 64, the total employedpopulation,and the population employed
in agriculture,are all lower to-daythanat the beginningof the century; further-
more, in four of the seven rural divisions the decline has continued between
'944 and 1952 (Figure 4). The only major increasein agriculturalemployment
has takenplace in the rapidlygrowingmainlyurban districtof Plaines Wilhems,
whence increasing numbers of labourers-commuting in reverse-are carried
dailyby lorryto sugar estatesin severalpartsof the island.
We have alreadyreferred to the substantialgainsin the yieldof sugarper arpent
and per head achieved in recentyears(Figure 3). Researchin cane breedingand
applicationare both showing resultswhich indicatethatthese trends
in fertiliser
mightcontinue. Improvementsin yieldon the existingacreage (especiallyfrom
the small planters'land), and extensionsof profitableacreage beyond both the
sub-humidand super-humidboundaries may well occur. A crop of 6oo,ooo
tons is now in sight,2and thereis no reason to suppose that this is the limit.
There have also been moves to rationalisethe transportand factorysides of the
industry. Concentrationof factoriesis still proceeding,and the recentlarge
returns have madepossibleextensivere-equipment of mills,3 thoughveryfew
would rankas firstclass modernfactories. Road transportis increasinglyreplac-
ing rail for carriagewithinthe island, and therehave been experimentsin bulk
loading onto ships. As in so muchelse thatis Mauritian,however,thereremains
a great deal that is archaic in the sugar industry. Many mills are still below
standard,the bullock carts of the small plantersstill carrycane fromthe fields,
fragmentationof land still bedevils efficiencyand the low yield of the small
growersremainsa drag on the whole industry.
Provided thata marketcan be foundforsugargrownabove theCommonwealth
Sugar Agreement quota, and prdvided that the price remains remunerative,
there seems no reason why sugar productionin Mauritius should not surpass
700,000 tons, but it is unlikelythatthiswould be matchedby more than a small
increase in employment. Benefitswould accrue in total income and perhaps
1 Committee
onPopulation,19-25.
2 DepartmentofAgriculture,AnnualReports. The 1956 crop reached 572,000 tons of sugar.
3 Sincetheend ofthewar theindustryhas investedoverRs.zoo,ooo,oooin improvements, thusbringing
the standardup muchnearerto the best. There is, however,some way to go, particularly onthefactory
sideof theindustry.
 H. C. BROOKFIELD

in the livingstandardsof sugarindustrylabour,but the marginalproductivityof

additionallabourmightwell even decline,if greaterefficiency is pursuedas an aim.
Furtheravenues of employment will therefore have to be sought elsewhere.
The most promising is the tea cultivation that has extended greatly in the post-
war yearson the super-humid country of the central uplands. This land, with
its high and
rainfall cloud averages, cool temperatures and acid soils, is unsuitable
for sugar and its resources are largely unused. Tea was grown here before the
war, but qualitywas poor. Since the war, however, the Government has estab-
lished a researchstationand assistedwith the introductionof new typesof tea
and with the modernisationof the factories. Acreage is rising rapidly: some
4,000 acres are now planted,and it is estimatedthatbetween zo,oooand 3o,ooo
acres are suitableforthe crop. Not only does this cultivationrelievean import
and createa new export,but it is also a high labour-usingactivity: tea cultivation
requiresover one labourerperacre,thoughunfortunately its peak season overlaps
with the end of the sugar crop season. At present labour is short in the tea
industry: there are no local settlements, and all workers have to be broughtin
by lorry. In the future, however, this industry could provide employmentfor
a veryconsiderablelabour force.
The futureof the othersubsidiarycrops is less happy. The smallfibreindustry
has grown up in the sub-humidareas around a factorymaking sugar bags.
However Indian jute bags have alreadybeen preferred to those made fromMauri-
tian aloe fibre,and now the trendtoward bulk handlingof sugar puts the whole
futureof the industryin jeopardy. Tobacco is also grown in the drierareas.
Locally made cigarettesare manufacturedin Port Louis, but theyhave only a
restrictedmarket. It is likely,however, that sugar cultivationmay ultimately
extendinto the sub-humidareas.
Lack of employmenton the land will forceincreasingnumbersinto the towns,
and much thereforedepends on the prospectsof secondaryindustryotherthan
the manufactureof sugar. Here Mauritiushas two substantialresources,whose
use is to some degree related. A high rainfall,combined with a moderatebut
locally stronglyaccidentedrelief,createsnumeroussites at which hydro-electric
power could be generated. At present,perhaps one-thirdof the potentialis
developed, and generationhas been supplementedby a thermalstation,using
importedoil, establishedin Port Louis. It would seem logical to expand the
productionof electricity verysubstantially to providepower forgeneralindustry
and also perhapsforsugarfactories; thiswould releasesome of the cane residue
that at presentservesfor fuel to forman industrialraw material. In Australia,
and in other sugar producing countries,there is a substantialproduction of
buildingmaterialsfromcane residues. There would certainlybe a marketwithin
Mauritius,and itis even possiblethatwithclose concentration of sugarproduction
leading to low procurementcosts, an industrycateringfor a regional market
mightbe builtup.
The establishmentof consumer goods industries,however, is limited both
by the small size and povertyof the Mauritianmarketand by the difficulty of
building up an export marketfrom so isolated a site in competitionwith the
growingindustrialcentreson the Africanmainland. Perhapsa clothingindustry
 MAURITIUS: DEMOGRAPHIC UPSURGE AND PROSPECT II9

mightoffer limited prospects,butlittleelse. The onlyotherpossibility ofdevelop-

mentliesin thefisheries of thebanksaroundMauritiusand to thenorth. The
ColonialDevelopment Corporation hasconductedinvestigations intothisresource.
The problemin Mauritiusis not the vicious circleof subsistencepoverty,
nor is it even fundamentally one of capitalshortage-thoughthisis present:
the greatproblemis limitation of naturalresources. Leewaydoes stillexist,
to an extentthatis surprising in viewofthelongperiodofcloseoccupation, but
utilisationof remaining resourcesis not in everycase the path to additional
employment.Exceptfortheteaindustry, itseemslikelythatfurther employment
opportunities on thelandareverylimited.Withtime,thiswillthrowtheproblem
increasin-glyinto the towns,but the prospectsof secondaryindustry are also
limited,and thesize ofthetertiary sectoroftheeconomydependslargelyon the
sizeand wealthofprimary and secondary production.
The problemis notwholly" Malthusian ". Thougha Malthusian framecan
be fittedfairlywell onto the populationhistoryof Mauritiusin the present
century, withits coincidenceof boom and naturalincrease,slumpand natural
decline,to do so wouldbe to neglectthelong termrisein thecurveshowing
yieldof sugarper head of population,and it would neglectalso the apparent
duringthelastfiveyears,at a timewhenreturns
fallin fertility fromsugarwere
steadyor stillincreasing.To speak in Malthusiantermsof impendingover-
populationwould also ignorethe continuedabsenceof diminishing returns
in agricultureandwouldminimise, as Malthusminimised it,thelargepartplayed
and to be playedbycapitalin increasing productivity.
This is notto argueawaythepopulationproblem. It certainly existsbothin
termsofan over-rapid rateofgrowthand ofa shortage of developableresources.
On theevidencepresented, it wouldseemlikelythatthemostvigorousdevelop-
mentmightkeeppace withgrowthfora generation, butone hesitates to predict
beyondthis,and further moreit remainstruethatrapidpopulationgrowthis
no necessity formuchof the development envisaged. Thoughwe mightfind
evidenceof a widermarginthanthe Committee on Populationrecognise, thereis
no gainsaying theirconclusion thata sharpfallinfertility
coupledwithemigration,
to cutbacktherateofgrowthandstabilise thepopulation, areessentialifdisaster
is to be averted. Yet fertility controlin Mauritiusamonga largelyilliterate
population,a substantial part of whom are membersof the Roman Catholic
church, willnotbe easyto achieve. Nor is emigration an easysolution. On the
continent ofAfrica, whichwouldseemthenaturaloutletforemigration, thewages
and livingconditions forunskilled labourersareinferior in generalto thosenow
pertaining on Mauritius.The onlypartialexceptionis in theUnion,but South
Africaoffers no welcometo non-white migrants manyof whomwould be of
Indianorigin. NegotiationswithNorthBorneo and Madagascar,at different
times,have provedfruitless.It is, of course,possiblethatultimately some
Mauritians, particularlythe chronically underemployed Creole artisans,might
followtheJamaican pathto theUnitedKingdom,whiletheislandis also linked
bya regularshippingserviceto SouthAmerica,a routethatmaybe followedin
time. At present, however,thereseemslittleurgefore-migration, exceptamong
thewhites.
120 H. C. BROOKFIELD

The basic needs of Mauritiusare simpleand familiarenough: a sharp decline

in fertility, greaterproduction,the creationof new fieldsof economic activity,
a great effortto improve health and housing and to raise living standards,and
at least some organised emigrationto relievethe pressure. With all these goes
the corollarythat vigorous action and investmentare needed, both internally
and fromoutside. The problemwhich will faceMauritiusin the comingdecades
is as acute as any economic problem in the world, and it should be stressedthat
this economic problem in Mauritius transcendsthe conflictsof politics or race.
The growing attentiongiven to these latteraspects in recentyearsis somewhat
disturbing: devolution of colonial authorityleading to a quasi-independence
is doubtless politicallydesirable,but Mauritius could never be a viable state,
stillless a statecapable of absorbingthe shock of so violenta crisisin the balance
of man, land and capital. Mauritiuscannot solve its problemsalone: without
fulland immediateoutsidehelp in capitalprovision,in planningforoptimumuse
of resources,in education,and in supplyingthebreathingspace thatat least some
emigrationcould provide, it is difficult to see how the colony can progress,or
avoid an actual decline to conditions of greaterdistressthan have ever before
been known in the island.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This paperstemsfromresearchon thepopulationof Mauritiuscarriedout withtheaid of a grantfrom
the Population InvestigationCommittee. Work was commencedin the Universityof Natal, Durban,
and Mauritiuswas visitedfromSouth Africain I954. The main body of researchwork,however,was
done in the Universityof New England, Armidale,New South Wales. Among the manypersonsto
due to Mr. M. V. M.
whom the writeris indebtedforassistanceand advice, thanksare particularly
Herchenroder,Director of Statisticsin Mauritiusand to membersof his staff,and to Sir Alexander
Carr-Saunders,withoutwhose interestthe projectcould neverhave been begun.

APPENDIX I
A personal communicationfrom Dr. Burton Benedict, formerlyof McGill
University,who in I955-57 conducted anthropologicalresearchin Mauritius,
provides the followingadditionalinformationon the subject of birthcontrol:
" As to your question on birthcontrol (in its widest sense), I can findvery littleevidence
that it is practised. It is likely that the age of marriage for men may be later than formerly,
as I think there is a tendencyfor joint families (among the Indo-Mauritian population) to
split up earlier. . . I thinkthereis a certainamount of receptivityto birthcontrol especially
among the Hindus, many of whom point to the policy in this direction in India. Hindu
journalists are also prone to bring up this point. The receptiveness, I estimate, extends
from the town to the village elite but not, I'm prettysure, to the labourer. The Catholics
and Muslims oppose birthcontrol, the formervery vocally, though whether their elite do
so in practice is another question. Contraceptives are almost certainly not used in the
villages. I have heard of a few of the more educated villagers attempting the rhythm
method and of one case of regularly practised coitus interruptus, but my impression is
that such methods are very rare. I have heard that abortion is very common in the towns.
I do not think it is much practised in the village though I have no evidence one way or
the other and it is possible that the village " dai " or midwife may do this. I have put
your question about birth control to two of my most reliable informantsand they both
thought that by and large there was no practice of it, but that there would be some recep-
tiveness to it, particularlyamong women.
 MAURITIUS: DEMOGRAPHIC UPSURGE AND PROSPECT I2I

As to your last questionabout economicfeeling,my impressionis thatthe average

labourer,artisan,and to a lesserextentthesmallplanterbelievethatthereis an increasing
pinch. They are uneasyabout the economicfuture. The risingcost of livingseemsto
have hit the labourerand artisanhard and he findshimselfin debt continuouslyto the
shopkeeper, especiallyduringthelong intercrop.This,of course,is traditional,butmany
complainthatthereis less workand thattheyare unableto earnas muchas last yearor
the yearbefore. As to how thisfeelingis relatedto receptiveness to birthcontrol,it is
hard to say. Certainlythe relationshipis complicatedand not verydirect-less work
is so muchmoreimmediate to themthanless populationthattheydo notmaketheconnec-
tion . . . Let me add the usual caveat about tentativeness."
These observationsare undoubtedlythe mostauthoritativestatementavailable
on the presentposition. Grounds forhope of a solution on theselines,though
present,are clearlylimited.
APPENDIX 2
Projection 6-Assumptions
The basic data for this projectionwere the survival rates fromthe Colonial
Officeprojection,and femaleage-specificfertility
as forJan.-June I95 5. Fertility
was treatedas follows: FASFR at IO-I4 was assumed to decline by So% in
I957-62 and to zero thereafter.FASFR at i5-i9 was assumed to fall by io%
in each quinquennial period. FASFR at all other ages was assumed to decline
by 5% in each period until I972 and thereafter by io%. (In I957-62 the 5%
reductionapplies to all ages above I5). The followingis the working sheet:

I955 I952-7 I957-62 i962-7 i967-72 I972-7 1977-82

I0-14 ... o0987 I 0-5 0.0 0?0 0?0 0?0

I5-I9 .,. 6i5 I4 62 59 53 48 43 39
20-24 ... I23 379 I23 117 III I05 95 86
25-29 ... I24 387 I24 II8 II2 io6 95 86
30-34 ... I03 55I 104 99 94 89 8o 72
35-39 ... 70?527 71 67 64 6I 55 S?
40-44 ... 22 339 22 22 20 I9 27 I5
45-49 ... 2-294 2 Iv9 i-8 1.5 I.3 I2

Only crude amendmentswere made to Colonial Officesurvivalrates. Rates

both for femalesand for the whole population were increasedas follows. For
the o-4 group rateswere increasedby 3% in each quinquennialperiod to I972.
For ages 5-39 rateswere raised by O-OOi in each quinquennialperiod,for40-54
byooo z, for 55-64 by o oo3, for64-69 byo oo4 and for70 and over byo.oo
?
No furtherimprovementin mortalitywas assumed afterI972.
Female birthswere multipliedby 2zo276 to obtain total birthsin the Colonial
Office projection. This has been retained throughout. The total was then
diminishedby io% in theC.O. projectionto obtainthe0-4 groupin thesucceeding
quinquennial period. This arbitrarymortalitywas improved by i% in each
periodto I977.
quinquennial
Throughout,the assumptionis thatmortalitywill show the greatestimprove-
ment at very young ages and secondly at high ages. These assumptionsare
based on the trendof medical and welfareservices,which are likelyto reduce
infantmortality,and on the cumulativeeffectof the eliminationof malaria in
lengtheninglife.
122 H. C. BROOKFIELD

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