PRONOSTICOS

t At Ft ultim v Ft ps Ft movil (3) Ft movil (4) Ft ponde

1 42 n1=0,2
2 52 42 42.00 n2=0,3
3 54 52 47.00 n3=0,5
4 65 54 49.33 49.33 51.00
5 51 65 53.25 57.00 53.25 59.10
6 64 51 52.80 56.67 55.50 55.80
7 64 54.67 60.00 58.50 60.30
n=3 n=4

MAD 10 9.22 9.67 5.38 10.10

MSE 118 104.99 111.74 38.66 109.62
MAPE 17.52 15.64 15.78 8.85 16.74

MENOR ERROR 5.38

PRONOSTICO 58.5
METODO SELECCIONADO
 et

S EXPO Ft ultim v Ft ps Ft movil Ft movil Ft ponde

42 10.0 10.00
48.25 2.0 7.00
51.84 11.0 15.67 15.67 14.00
60.06 -14.0 -2.25 -6.00 -2.25 -8.10
54.40 13.0 11.20 7.33 8.50 8.20
60.40
a 0.62457665
22.0 41.6 17.0 6.3 14.1

9.51
96.10
16.58
 ABSOLUTO et

S EXPO Ft ultim v Ft ps Ft movil Ft movil Ft ponde S EXPO

10.00 10 10.0 0 0 0 10.00

5.75 2 7.0 0 0 0 5.75
13.16 11 15.7 15.7 0 14 13.16
-9.06 14 2.3 6.0 2.25 8.1 9.06
9.60 13 11.2 7.3 8.5 8.2 9.60

29.5 50 46.12 29 10.75 30.3 47.57

 (et)2

Ft ultim v Ft ps Ft movil Ft movil Ft ponde S EXPO

100.0 100.00 100.00

4.0 49.00 33.11
121.0 245.44 245.44 196.00 173.19
196.0 5.06 36.00 5.06 65.61 82.07
169.0 125.44 53.78 72.25 67.24 92.14

590.0 524.9 335.2 77.3 328.9 480.5

 (et)/At*100

Ft ultim v Ft ps Ft movil Ft movil Ft ponde S EXPO

19.23 19.23 19.23

3.70 12.96 10.66
16.92 24.10 24.10 21.54 20.25
27.45 4.41 11.76 4.41 15.88 17.76
20.31 17.50 11.46 13.28 12.81 15.00

87.62 78.21 47.33 17.69 50.23 82.90