‫ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﱵ‬

‫‪ PERT‬ﻭ ‪CPM‬‬
 ‫ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺟﺴﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬

‫ﲥـــــــﺪﻑ ﺳﻠﺴـــــــﻠﺔ ﺟﺴـــــــﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤـــــــﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟـــــــﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺑﻘﻀـــــ ـﺎﻳﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤـــــــﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﲢﻠـــــــﻴﻞ ﺟﻮﺍ�ـــــــﺒﻬﺎ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺨـــــﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺇﱃ ﲨﻬـــــﻮﺭ ﻭﺍﺳـــــﻊ ﻣـــــﻦ ﺍﻟﻘـــ ـﺮ‪‬ﺍﺀ ﺑﻐـــــﺮﺽ ﺗﻮﺳـــــﻴﻊ ﺩﺍﺋـــــﺮﺓ ﻣﻌﺮﻓـــــﺘﻬﻢ ﻭﺗﻮﻓـــــﲑ ﺟﺴـــــﺮ ﺑـــــﲔ �ﻈـــ ـﺮﻳﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤـــــــﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺩﻭﺍﲥـــــــﺎ ﺍﳌﻌﻘـــــــﺪﺓ ﻣـــــــﻦ �ﺎﺣـــــــﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻐـــــــﺰﺍﻫﺎ ﻭﻣﺪﻟﻮﳍـــــــﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـــــــﻠﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴـــــــﺒﺔ ﻟﺼــــــﺎ�ﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﻘـــــــﺮﺍﺭ‬

‫ﻭﺍﳌﻬـــــﺘﻤﲔ ﲠـــــﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻀـــــﺎﻳﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣـــــﻦ �ﺎﺣـــــﻴﺔ ﺃﺧـــــﺮﻯ‪ .‬ﻭﰲ ﻫـــــﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﻃـــــﺎﺭ ﺗﺸـــــﻜﻞ ﺳﻠﺴـــــﻠﺔ ﺟﺴـــــﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤـــــﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺇﺳـــــﻬﺎﻣﺎً ﻣـــــﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻬـــــﺪ ﺍﻟﻌـــــﺮﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄـــــﻴﻂ ﺑﺎﻟﻜﻮﻳـــــﺖ ﰲ ﺗﻮﻓـــــﲑ ﻣـــــﺮﺍﺟﻊ ﻣﺒﺴـــــﻄﺔ ﻭﺇﺛـــــﺮﺍﺀ ﳌﻜﺘـــــﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻘـــــﺮﺍﺀ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻬﺘﻤﲔ ﺑﺄﻣﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ‪.‬‬

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 ‫ﺍﶈﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ‬

‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻻ ـ ﺿﺒﻂ ﻭﺟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .1‬ﺇ�ﺸﺎﺀ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﲣﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬‬
‫‪3‬ـ ﺿــﺒــﻂ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺛﺎ�ﻴﺎ ـ ﺍﳌﺼﻄﻠﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ‪.‬‬

‫ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎ ـ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪:‬‬

‫‪1‬ـ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻭﳖﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 2‬ـ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻓﱰﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ 3‬ـ ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻓﱰﺗﻪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺭﺍﺑﻌﺎ ـ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ‪.CPM‬‬

‫ﺧﺎﻣﺴﺎ ـ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ‪: PERT‬‬

‫‪ 1‬ـ ﺃﺯﻣﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2‬ـ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺯﻣﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 3‬ـ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍ�ﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻨﺪ �ﻘﻄﺔ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 4‬ـ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺳﺎﺩﺳﺎ ـ ﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻵﱄ ﺍﳌﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﰲ ﺟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ‪.‬‬

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 ‫ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﱵ ‪ PERT‬ﻭ ‪CPM‬‬

‫ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ‪ :‬ﺃ‪ .‬ﲨﺎﻝ ﺣﺎﻣﺪ‬

‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻳﻌﺘـﱪ ﺿـﺒﻂ ﻭﺟﺪﻭﻟـﺔ ﺍﳌﺸـﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻘﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺒﻞ ﻋﻘﺪﻳﻦ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻟـﺰﻣﺎﻥ ﱂ ﻳﻜـﻦ ﻫـﻨﺎﻙ ﺃﺳـﻠﻮﺏ ﻣﻌـﲔ ﻹﺗـﺒﺎﻋﻪ‪ ،‬ﻓﱰﻛـﺰ ﺍﻫـﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻣﺪﻳـﺮﻱ ﺍﻟﺸـﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻭﻣـﺘﺨﺬﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﻟﻀﺒﻂ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺸـﺎﺭﻳﻊ‪ .‬ﻭﰲ ﻋـﺎﻡ ‪ 1958‬ﲤﻜﻦ ﻗﺴﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﺑﺎﻷﺳﻄﻮﻝ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻟﻀﺒﻂ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﲰﻴﺖ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ‬
‫"ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺗﻘﻮﻳﻢ ﻭﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﱪ�ﺎﻣﺞ" )‪ ،(Program Evaluation and Review Technology‬ﺛﻢ ﲤﻜﻦ‬
‫ﻓـﺮﻳﻖ ﻋﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ )ﺩ‪‬ﺑﻨﺖ( ﻣﻦ ﺗﻄﻮﻳﺮ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﻟﻀﺒﻂ ﻭﲣﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﲰﻴﺖ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﳊﺮﺝ ‪ ،CPM‬ﺣﻴﺚ‬
‫ﺃﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﳒﺎﺣﺎً ﺑﺎﻫﺮﺍً ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹ�ﺸﺎﺋﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻳﻜﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻕ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺑﲔ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺯﻣﻦ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ‪ PERT‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺯﻣﻨﺔ ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺯﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟـﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﻬـﻲ ﺗﺘـﺒﻊ ﺃﺳـﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﺣـﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﻛﻞ �ﺸﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﳉﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻣﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ‬
‫ﻛﻞ �ﺸﺎﻁ‪ .‬ﺃﻣﺎ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ‪ ،CPM‬ﻓﺘﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺯﻣﲏ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻟﻜﻞ �ﺸﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺷﺎﺋﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﳌﻜﺮﺭﺓ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﻭﻻ ـ ﺿﺒﻂ ﻭﺟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ‪:‬‬

‫ﲤﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﰲ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬﻳﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ . 1‬ﺇ�ﺸﺎﺀ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺸﻤﻞ‬

‫‪ −‬ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺇﱃ ﺃ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﺃﺣﺪﺍﺙ‪.‬‬
‫‪ −‬ﺗﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ‪.‬‬
‫‪ −‬ﺭﺳﻢ ﲣﻄﻴﻄﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬
‫‪ −‬ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﻨﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ �ﺸﺎﻁ‪.‬‬

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 ‫‪ . 2‬ﲣﻄﻴﻂ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪:‬‬
‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺃ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻞ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﲏ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ −‬ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺍﳊﺮﺟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ −‬ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﳊﺮﺝ‪.‬‬
‫‪ −‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ �ﺸﺎﻁ‪.‬‬

‫ﻳﻜﻤــﻦ ﺍﻟﻔــﺮﻕ ﺑــﲔ ﻃـﺮﻳﻘﱵ ‪ PERT‬ﻭ ‪ CPM‬ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳــﺮ‬

‫ﺯﻣــﻦ ﺍﻷ�ﺸــﻄﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫ ﺗﻌــﺘﻤﺪ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﻋــﻠﻰ ﺛﻼﺛــﺔ ﺃﺯﻣــﻨﺔ ﳊﺴــﺎﺏ‬
‫ﺯﻣــﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺸــﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﰲ ﺣــﲔ ﺗﻌــﺘﻤﺪ ﺍﻟﻄـﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ــﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳــﺮ ﺯﻣــﲏ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺣــﺪ ﻟﻜــﻞ �ﺸــﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫــﻲ ﺷ ـﺎﺋﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺳــﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸــﺎﺭﻳﻊ‬
‫ﺍﳌﻜﺮﺭﺓ‪.‬‬

‫‪ . 3‬ﺿــﺒــﻂ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﻨﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻭﻣﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ −‬ﻣﺮﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﻨﺔ ﻭﻣﻘﺎﺭ�ﺘﻬﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮﻳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ −‬ﳏﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺇﺗﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﻄﺔ ﻗﺪﺭ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻄﺎﻉ‪.‬‬
‫‪� −‬ﻘﻞ ﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎ�ﻴﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ �ﺸﺎﻁ ﺫﻱ ﻓﺎﺋﺾ ﺇﱃ �ﺸﺎﻁ ﺣﺮﺝ ﺇﻥ ﺃﻣﻜﻦ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﻲ ‪ PERT‬ﻭ ‪ CPM‬ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﰲ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫• ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻣﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺮﻭ�ﺔ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳊﺮﺟﺔ ﻹﺗﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﻟﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﻨﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﻜﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﺄﺧﺮﺓ ﻻ�ﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

‫ﺛﺎ�ﻴﺎ ـ ﺍﳌﺼﻄﻠﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ‪:‬‬

‫ﻟﺘﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﱵ ‪ PERT‬ﻭ ‪ CPM‬ﰲ ﺟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳌﺼﻄﻠﺤﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﳘﻬﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﳊﺪﺙ ‪ :Event‬ﻭﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ �ﻘﻄﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻭ ﻻ ﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻭﳖﺎﻳﺔ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

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 ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ :Activity‬ﻫﻮ ﳎﻬﻮﺩ ﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ �ﻘﻄﺔ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻭﳖﺎﻳﺔ ﻭﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬﻩ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸـﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻮﳘﻲ ‪ :Dummy Activity‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻻ ﳛﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻣﻦ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻹﲤﺎﻣﻪ ﻭﻳﺴﺘﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻟﻠﺪﻻﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻴﺎ ﻭﻳﺮﺳﻢ ﺑﺴﻬﻢ ﻣﺘﻘﻄﻊ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﳊﺮﺝ ‪ :Critical Activity‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺇﺫﺍ ﰎ ﺗﺄﺧﲑ ﺍ�ﺘﻬﺎﺋﻪ ﻓﺈ�ﻪ ﻳﺘﺴﺒﺐ ﰲ ﺗﺄﺧﲑ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﳊﺮﺝ ‪ :Critical Path‬ﻫﻮ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺟﺔ‪ ،‬ﲤﺘﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﱃ ﳖﺎﻳﺘﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ‪ :Project‬ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻦ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺗﺴﻠﺴﻞ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ‪ :Network‬ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻞ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺯﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﻜﺮ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ‪ :Earliest Start‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﳒﺰﺕ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﰲ‬
‫ﺃﻭﻗﺎﲥﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﺯﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﻜﺮ ‪ :Earliest Finish‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺠﺰ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺑﺪﺃ ﰲ ﻭﻗﺘﻪ ﺍﳌﺒﻜﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﳖﺎﻳﺔ ﻣﺒﻜﺮﺓ = ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻣﺒﻜﺮﺓ ‪ +‬ﻭﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪.‬‬
‫ﺯﻣـﻦ ﳖﺎﻳـﺔ ﻣـﺘﺄﺧﺮ ‪ :Latest Finish‬ﻫـﻮ ﺃﺧـﺮ ﺯﻣـﻦ ﳝﻜـﻦ ﺇﲤـﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺸـﺎﻁ ﻓـﻴﻪ ﺑـﺪﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﺴـﺒﺐ ﺑـﺘﺄﺧﲑ ﺃﻳﺔ ﺃ�ﺸﻄﺔ‬
‫ﻻﺣﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺯﻣﻦ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻣﺘﺄﺧﺮ ‪ :Latest Start‬ﻫﻮ ﺃﺧﺮ ﻭﻗﺖ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺑﺸﺮﻁ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﺄﺧﲑ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺣﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻣﺘﺄﺧﺮﺓ = ﳖﺎﻳﺔ ﻣﺘﺄﺧﺮﺓ – ﻭﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ ‪:Slack Time‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ = ﺯﻣﻦ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻣﺘﺄﺧﺮ – ﺯﻣﻦ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻣﺒﻜﺮ‬

‫ﻳـﺘﻢ ﺿـﺒﻂ ﻭﺟﺪﻭﻟـﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﻋﱪ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﻫﻲ‪ :‬ﺇ�ﺸﺎﺀ‬

‫ﺷـــﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤـــﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻤﺸـــﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﲣﻄـــﻴﻂ ﺍﳌﺸـــﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺿـــﺒﻂ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

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 ‫ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎ ـ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﰲ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫ــ ﻳﺒﺪﺃ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻨﺪ �ﻘﻄﺔ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻭﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻋﻨﺪ �ﻘﻄﺔ ﳖﺎﻳﺔ )ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﳘﻴﺔ ‪.(Milestone‬‬
‫ــ ﻻ ﳚﻮﺯ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺩﺓ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪.‬‬

‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫ـ ﻻ ﳚﻮﺯ ﺗﺮﻙ �ﺸﺎﻁ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺗﺴﻠﺴﻞ‪.‬‬

‫ﳖﺎﻳﺔ‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫‪ 1‬ـ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻭﳖﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪:‬‬

‫• ﺍﺑﺪﺃ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻭﺗﻘﺪﻡ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺣﺪﺩ ﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻟﺒﺪﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﲝﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻳﺎ ﻟﻠﺼﻔﺮ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺇﺣﺴﺐ ﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻛﻞ �ﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮﻗﻬﺎ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺘﻪ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴـﺒﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ �ﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﺘﺴﻠﺴﻞ ﻻ ﻳﺴﺒﻘﻪ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﺇﻻ �ﺸﺎﻁ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‪ ،‬ﺣﺪﺩ ﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺘﻪ ﲝﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻳﺎ ﻷﻗﺮﺏ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﳖﺎﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴـﺒﺔ ﻟﻜـﻞ �ﺸـﺎﻁ ﻣﺘﺴﻠﺴـﻞ ﻳﺴـﺒﻘﻪ ﺃﻛـﺜﺮ ﻣـﻦ �ﺸـﺎﻁ ﻭﺍﺣـﺪ‪ ،‬ﺣـﺪﺩ ﺃﻗـﺮﺏ ﻣﻮﻋـﺪ ﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳـﺘﻪ ﲝﻴﺚ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺎﻭﻳﺎ ﻷﻗﺮﺏ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﳖﺎﻳﺔ ﻟﻸ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫• ﺩﻭ‪‬ﻥ ﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﳖﺎﻳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫• ﻛـﺮﺭ ﺍﳋﻄـﻮﺍﺕ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟـﺜﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺳـﺔ ﺣـﺘﻰ ﺗﺼـﻞ ﺇﱃ ﳖﺎﻳـﺔ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭﻻ ﳝﻜـﻦ ﲢﺪﻳـﺪ ﺃﻗـﺮﺏ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ‬
‫ﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ �ﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﺎ ﺇﻻ ﺑﻌﺪ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻟﻪ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ‪.‬‬

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 ‫‪ 2‬ـ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻓﱰﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻭﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺟﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴـﺒﺔ ﻟﻜـﻞ �ﺸـﺎﻁ ﻳـﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺃﻗـﺮﺏ ﻣﻮﻋـﺪ ﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳـﺘﻪ ﻣـﻊ ﺁﺧـﺮ ﻣﻮﻋـﺪ ﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳـﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻗـﺮﺏ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺘﻪ ﻭﺁﺧﺮ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ‬
‫ﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻓﱰﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺻﻔﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓـﻴﻤﺎ ﻋـﺪﺍ ﺫﻟـﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓـﺈﻥ ﻓـﱰﺓ ﺍﻟﺴـﻤﺎﺡ ﻫـﻲ ﺍﻟﻔـﺮﻕ ﺍﻟـﺰﻣﲏ ﺑـﲔ ﺃﻗـﺮﺏ ﻭﺁﺧﺮ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻛﻞ �ﺸﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺑﲔ ﺃﻗﺮﺏ‬
‫ﻭﺁﺧﺮ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ‪:‬‬
‫‪ES–ST = LS‬‬
‫ﺃﻭ‬
‫‪= LF - EF‬‬

‫ﺗﺴــﺎﻫﻢ ﻛــﻞ ﻣــﻦ ﻃ ـﺮﻳﻘﻲ ‪ PERT‬ﻭ ‪ CPM‬ﰲ ﺍﻟــﺘﻌﺮﻑ‬

‫ﻋــﻠﻰ ﺍﻷ�ﺸــﻄﺔ ﺍﳊــﺮﺟﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﰲ ﺣﺴــﺎﺏ ﻣــﺮﻭ�ﺔ ﺍﻷ�ﺸــﻄﺔ ﻏــﲑ‬
‫ﺍﳊـﺮﺟﺔ ﻹﺗﺎﺣـﺔ ﺍﻟﻔـﺮﺹ ﻟـﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﳌـﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷ�ﺸـﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺔ ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻜﻞ �ﺸﺎﻁ ﺑﺈﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﳌﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺴﺘﻐﺮﻗﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﱰﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﺍﻗﺮﺏ‬
‫ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺘﻪ‪ .‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﳚﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺍ‪‬ﻤﻮﻉ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﺁﺧﺮ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻱ �ﺸﺎﻁ ﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻓﱰﺓ ﲰﺎﺣﻪ ﺻﻔﺮﺍً‪ ،‬ﻫﻮ �ﺸﺎﻁ ﺣﺮﺝ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺴﻠﺴﻞ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺇﱃ ﳖﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﻮ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﳊﺮﺝ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 3‬ــ ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﻓﱰﺗﻪ‪:‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺃﺩﺭﺱ ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﲥﺎ ﻭﺇﻣﻜﺎ�ﻴﺔ ﺗﻐﻴﲑ ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺃﺩﺭﺱ ﺃ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﳊﺮﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺪﻯ ﺇﻣﻜﺎ�ﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﺼﲑ ﻓﱰﺍﲥﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺇﲝﺚ ﺇﻣﻜﺎ�ﻴﺔ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺇﺿﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﺼﲑ ﻓﱰﺓ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺇﲝﺚ ﺇﻣﻜﺎ�ﻴﺔ ﺗﻐﻴﲑ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﶈﺪﺩ ﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻣﻌﲔ ﻟﺘﻘﺼﲑ ﺍﳌﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﻘﺮﺭﺓ ﻟﻪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺇﻋﺘﱪ ﻣﺪﺓ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻷﺧﲑ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﳖﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

‫‪7‬‬
 ‫ﺭﺍﺑﻌﺎ ـ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ‪: CPM‬‬
‫ﻳﻮﺿـﺢ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟـﺘﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺔ ﺑـﲔ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﰲ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺢ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﲤﺖ ﺟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺇﱃ ﺃ�ﺸﻄﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫•‬
‫ﺗﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫•‬
‫ﺇ�ﺸﺎﺀ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪.‬‬ ‫•‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﻟﻜﻞ �ﺸﺎﻁ‪.‬‬ ‫•‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺴﺢ ﻟﻠﻤﺼﺎ�ﻊ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬

‫ﻓﱰﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﺿﻊ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺮﺏ ﺁﺧﺮ ﳖﺎﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺁﺧﺮ‬ ‫ﺃﻗﺮﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻒ‬ ‫ﺭﻣﺰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ‬
‫ﳖﺎﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺣﺮﺝ‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺢ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫ﺣﺮﺝ‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺒﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺼﺎ�ﻊ‬ ‫‪D‬‬
‫ﺣﺮﺝ‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪33‬‬ ‫‪33‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪D,G,H‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫ﺇﺟﺮﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺴﺢ‬ ‫‪E‬‬
‫ﺣﺮﺝ‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪33‬‬ ‫‪33‬‬ ‫‪E‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬ ‫‪F‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫ﻃﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺒﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫‪G‬‬
‫ﺣﺮﺝ‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪B,C‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫ﺗﺪﺭﻳﺐ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ‬ ‫‪H‬‬

‫ﻳـﺒﲔ ﺍﳉـﺪﻭﻝ ﺗﺴﻠﺴـﻞ ﺍﻷ�ﺸـﻄﺔ ﻭﻓﱰﺓ ﺇﳒﺎﺯ ﻛﻞ �ﺸﺎﻁ )ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺪﺓ ‪ ،(3-1‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺒﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ )‪ (4‬ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﻲ ﻟﻸ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗـﺪ ﰎ ﺣﺴـﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﻋﻤـﺪﺓ )‪ (8-5‬ﺑﻌـﺪ ﺭﺳـﻢ ﺷـﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤـﺎﻝ ﺗـﺒﻌﺎ ﻟـﻠﺨﻄﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﺒﻴـﻨﺔ ﺳـﺎﺑﻘﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﰎ ﺃﺧﲑﺍً ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻓﱰﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻟﻜﻞ‬
‫�ﺸﺎﻁ )ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻮﺩ ‪ ،(9‬ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﻓﱰﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ = ﺯﻣﻦ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻣﺘﺄﺧﺮ‪ -‬ﺯﻣﻦ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﻣﺒﻜﺮ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ )‪ = 3-8 = (B‬ﻓﺎﺋﺾ ‪ 5‬ﺃﻳﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﻏﲑ ﺣﺮﺝ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ )‪ = 3-3 = (C‬ﻓﺎﺋﺾ ‪ 0‬ﺃﻳﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺣﺮﺝ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﻭﻗﺪ ﺗﺒﲔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﳊﺮﺝ ﻫﻮ ‪ H ← E ← F ← C ← A‬ﺃ�ﻈﺮ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﻭﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ‪.‬‬

‫‪8‬‬
 3 8 ‫ﺷـﻜـــﻞ ﺍﻟﺸــﺒـﻜـﺔ‬
B
Select Researcher
5-5
8 13

0 3 13 20
A H
Training
Survey Plan Researcher
3-0 7-0
0 3 13 20

3 13 20 33 33 36
C E F
Questionnaire Survey
Design Analysis Results
10-0 13-0 3-0
3 13 33 36
20 33
13 17
D
Select Factory
4-3
16 20

13 18
G
Typing
Questionnaire
5-2
15 20

9
 ‫ﺧﺎﻣﺴﺎ ـ ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ‪:PERT‬‬
‫ﺗﻔـﱰﺽ ﻃـﺮﻳﻘﺔ ‪ PERT‬ﰲ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻓﱰﺓ ﺇﳒﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺯﻣﻨﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﻟﻔﱰﺓ ﻳﺘﺒﻊ‬

‫ﺍﻷﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 1‬ـ ﺃﺯﻣﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﻳﺔ‪ :‬ﻭﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ‪ :‬ﻫﻮ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻹﲤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ ‪ :‬ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﺍ ﻹﲤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﺸﺎﺋﻢ ‪ :‬ﻫﻮ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ ﺯﻣﻦ ﻹﲤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 2‬ـ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺯﻣﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪:‬‬

‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺯﻣﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ‪:‬‬

‫ﺯﻣﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ = )ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﳌﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ ‪ × 4 +‬ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ ‪ +‬ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﺸﺎﺋﻢ(‬
‫‪6‬‬

‫ﻟـﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﺘـﱪ ﺗﻮﺯﻳـﻊ ﺑﻴـﺘﺎ ﺃ�ﺴـﺐ ﺍﻟـﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟـﻴﺔ ﺍﻟـﺬﻱ ﳝﻜـﻦ ﺗﻄﺒـﻴﻘﻪ ﰲ ﺍﻟـﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨـﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤـﺎ ﻳﻔـﱰﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬

‫ﺣـﺪﻭﺙ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﻨﺔ )ﺍﳌﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﳌﺘﺸﺎﺋﻢ( ‪ ،%1‬ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ ‪ 4‬ﺃﺿﻌﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﺯﻣﻦ ﺍ�ﺘﻬﺎﺀ‬

‫ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻳﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺳﻮﻑ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺓ ﺑﺎﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ‪. %50‬‬

‫ﺯﻣﻦ ﺍ�ﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ) ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪ 20 :‬ﺃﺳﺒﻮﻋﺎ(‬

‫‪10‬‬
 ‫ﺗﻜــﻮﻥ ﻓــﱰﺓ ﺍﻟﺴــﻤﺎﺡ ﺻــﻔﺮﺍ ﰲ ﻛــﻞ �ﺸــﺎﻁ ﻳــﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﻓــﻴﻪ ﺃﻭﻝ‬
‫ﻭﺃﺧـﺮ ﻣﻮﻋـﺪ ﻟﺒﺪﺍﻳـﺘﻪ ﻭﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺃﻭﻝ ﻭﺁﺧﺮ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺘﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﺃﻱ‬
‫�ﺸﺎﻁ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻓﱰﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺻﻔﺮﺍ ﻳﻌﺘﱪ �ﺸﺎﻃﺎ ﺣﺮﺟﺎ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 3‬ـ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍ�ﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻨﺪ �ﻘﻄﺔ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﻳﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺇﲤﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻨﺪ �ﻘﻄﺔ ﺯﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ )ﺑﻌﺪ ‪ 23‬ﺃﺳﺒﻮﻋﺎ ﻣﺜﻼ(‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃـ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺃ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪:‬‬

‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻸ�ﺸﻄﺔ )ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ ‪ ،(PERT‬ﺛﻢ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﳊﺮﺝ‪ ،‬ﻳﺘﻢ‬

‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﳉﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻷ�ﺸﻄﺔ ﺍﳊﺮﺟﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ‪ = σ‬ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﺸﺎﺋﻢ – ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ‬

‫‪6‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ = ‪σ 2‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﻘﺼـﺪ ﺑﺎﻻﳓـﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌـﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻻﺑـﺘﻌﺎﺩ ﻋـﻦ ﺍﻟﻘـﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨـﻴﺔ ﺍﳌـﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ )ﺑﺎﻷﻳـﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻷﺳﺎﺑﻴﻊ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺑﺎﻷﺷﻬﺮ(‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ‬

‫ﺍﳌﻌـﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻳﺴـﺎﻭﻱ ‪ 0‬ﻓـﻴﺪﻝ ﺫﻟـﻚ ﻋـﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟـﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺩﻗـﻴﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛـﱪﺕ ﻗـﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﳓـﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺯﺍﺩﺕ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻋﺪﻡ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻴﻘﲔ ﰲ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﻨﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺏ ـ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﳊﺮﺝ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ )ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﳊﺮﺝ( = ‪ σ 2‬ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﳊﺮﺝ ‪ σ 2 +1‬ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﳊﺮﺝ ‪ σ 2 +. . .+ 2‬ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﳊﺮﺝ ‪n‬‬

‫ﺝ ـ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﳊﺮﺝ‪:‬‬

‫‪D − END‬‬
‫=‪z‬‬
‫‪σ2‬‬
‫ﺣﻴﺚ ‪:‬‬

‫‪11‬‬
 ‫‪ = D‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﻏﻮﺏ‪.‬‬

‫‪ = END‬ﺯﻣﻦ ﺍ�ﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ‪.‬‬

‫ﺩ ـ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺮﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﻮ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺇﳖﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ 4‬ـ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺯﻣﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻔﺎﺋﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﺸﺎﺋﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ‬
‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪4.1‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2-1‬‬
‫ﺣﺮﺝ‬ ‫‪7.84‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪13.8‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3-1‬‬
‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪6.5‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4-2‬‬
‫ﺣﺮﺝ‬ ‫‪0.68‬‬ ‫‪0.83‬‬ ‫‪5.8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4-3‬‬

‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﲝﺴﺎﺏ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺯﻣﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ‪ ،‬ﳓﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻣﻦ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻮﺩ )‪.(5‬‬

‫ﺃ ـ ﺭﺳﻢ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎﻝ‪:‬‬

‫‪ 20‬ﺃﺳﺒﻮﻉ‬ ‫‪6.5‬‬ ‫‪4.1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬

‫‪5.8‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪13.8‬‬

‫ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻻ�ﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﻌﺪ ‪ 20‬ﺃﺳﺒﻮﻋﺎ ﻫﻮ ‪.%50‬‬

‫‪12‬‬
 ‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪:‬‬

‫ﻟﻨﻔﱰﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻻ�ﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺑﻌﺪ ‪ 23‬ﺃﺳﺒﻮﻋﺎ(‪.‬‬

‫ﳊﺴـﺎﺏ ﺍﺣـﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍ�ـﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺍﳌﺸـﺮﻭﻉ ﻋـﻨﺪ ﺍﻟـﻨﻘﻄﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨـﻴﺔ ﺍﶈـﺪﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﳚـﺐ ﺃﻭﻻ ﺗﻘﺪﻳـﺮ ﺍﻻﳓـﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﻟﻸ�ﺸﻄﺔ‬

‫ﺍﳊﺮﺟﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪) :‬ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺪﺓ ‪:(6،7‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ )‪2.8 = 6/(20-3) = (3-1‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ )‪ = (3-1‬ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ = ‪7.84‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ )‪0.83 = 6/(8-3) = (4-3‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ )‪ = (4-3‬ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ = ‪0.68‬‬

‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﳊﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﳊﺮﺝ‪،‬‬

‫ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﳊﺮﺝ = ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ )‪+(3-1‬ﺗﺒﺎﻳﻦ)‪8.52 = 0.68+7.84 = (4-3‬‬

‫ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻳﺘﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻮﻳﺾ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪D − END‬‬
‫=‪z‬‬
‫‪σ2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻳﺔ = )‪ /(23 – 20‬ﺍﳉﺬﺭ ﺍﻟﱰﺑﻴﻌﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ = ‪1.03 =3/2.91‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﻌـﺪ ﺍﻟـﺮﺟﻮﻉ ﺇﱃ ﺟـﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟـﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒـﻴﻌﻲ ﳒـﺪ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ‪ 1.03‬ﺗﻨﺎﻇﺮ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ‪ 0.84‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻻ�ﺘﻬﺎﺀ‬

‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﰲ ‪ 23‬ﺃﺳﺒﻮﻉ ﻳﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪.%85‬‬

‫ﺏ ــ ﺇﳚﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻇﺮ ﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﻌﲔ‪:‬‬

‫ﻟﻨﻔﱰﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﻋﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺑﺈﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ‪،%75‬‬

‫ﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﳓﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻇﺮﺓ‬

‫ﻟـ= ‪ %75‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻭﺗﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ ، 0.674‬ﺛﻢ �ﻘﻮﻡ ﺑﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪D − END‬‬
‫=‪z‬‬
‫‪σ2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻇﺮ ﻟﻼﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ = )‪ 20 + (2.91 × 0.674‬ﻭﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ 21.9‬ﺃﺳﺒﻮﻉ‪.‬‬

‫‪13‬‬
 ‫ﺳﺎﺩﺳﺎ ـ ﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻵﱄ ﺍﳌﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﰲ ﺟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﻊ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﻤﺎ�ﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻇﻬﺮﺕ ﺑﺮﳎﻴﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﺔ ﰲ ﺟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺑﺮ�ﺎﻣﺞ ‪Premavira‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺑﺮ�ﺎﻣﺞ ‪Project‬‬

‫ﻭﻗـﺪ ﺳـﺎﻋﺪﺕ ﺍﳌﻬـﺘﻤﲔ ﻭﻣـﺘﺨﺬﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﰲ ﺟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺳﻬﻠﺔ ﻭﺳﺮﻳﻌﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺘﻢ ﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﲨﻴﻊ ﺍﳌﻌﻄﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﺛﻢ ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﺍﳊﺎﺳﺐ ﺍﻵﱄ ﲝﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﻨﺔ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﺮﺟﺔ ﻭﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ‪.‬‬

‫‪14‬‬
 ‫ﻣــــﺮﺍﺟـــــــــــﻊ ﳐﺘﺎﺭﺓ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﻛﺘﻮﺭ‪ /‬ﺃﲪﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺍﺯ "ﺃﺳﻠﻮﺏ ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺗﻨﻔﻴﺬ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻭﻋﺎﺕ" ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﱪ�ﺎﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﺭﻳﱯ ﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪.1999-1998‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﻛﺘﻮﺭ‪ /‬ﳏﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﳊﺪﺍﺩ‪" ،‬ﺍﻷﺳﺎﻟﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺘﻴﺔ"‪.1987 ،‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺪﻛﺘﻮﺭ‪ /‬ﺗﺮﻛﻲ ﺇﺑﺮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎﻥ‪" ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﲣﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺭﺍﺕ" ‪.1987‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬

‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪Berud Heigen Hausen, “Netz Plan Technik, 1976.‬‬

‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪Frederick S. Hillien, Operation Research, 1973.‬‬
‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪Mirco Soft Project 2000.‬‬

‫‪15‬‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺇﺻﺪﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺟﺴﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺭﻗﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺆﻟﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺪ�ﺎﻥ ﻭﺩﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﳏﻤﺪ ﻋﺪ�ﺎﻥ ﻭﺩﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﲪﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻲ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺮ‪ :‬ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ‬ ‫ﺃ‪ .‬ﺻﺎﱀ ﺍﻟﻌﺼﻔﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﺕ �ﻔﺎﺫﻫﺎ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ‬ ‫ﺩ‪� .‬ﺎﺟﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻮ�ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﻬﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬ ‫ﺃ‪ .‬ﺣﺴﻦ ﺍﳊﺎﺝ‬ ‫ﻃﺮﻕ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﺑﺎﺑﻜﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ‬ ‫ﺃ‪ .‬ﺣﺴﺎﻥ ﺧﻀﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺸﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﲑﺓ‬

‫ﺟﺪﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺪﺧﻼﺕ ـ ﺍﳌﺨﺮﺟﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺷﺮ‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﲪﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺍﺯ‬

‫ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻴﺎﺕ �ﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻷﻣﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺤﺴﺎﺑﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺍﳊﺎﺩﻱ ﻋﺸﺮ‬ ‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻣﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪1993‬‬

‫* ﻟﻼﻃﻼﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﳝﻜﻨﻜﻢ ﺍﻟﺮﺟﻮﻉ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻹﻟﻜﱰﻭ�ﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﱄ ‪:‬‬
‫‪http://www.arab-api.org/develop_1.htm‬‬

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