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INTERNATIONAL
UNIT 5 SECTION
BUSINESS
3
Unit 5, section
FOREIGN 3: functions and terminologies
EXCHANGE MARKET used in the foreign exchange
market
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166 UEW/IEDE
INTERNATIONAL
Unit 5, section 3: functions and terminologies used in the foreign exchange BUSINESS
market
Exchange rates are determined by the activities of the five groups discussed
above, as well as through purchasing power parity (PPP) and interest rate
parity (Fisher effect). The PPP theory holds that the exchange rate between
two currencies will be determined by the relative purchasing power of these
currencies. So, if the price of goods and services in Germany is rising faster
than in the United States, according to PPP theory, the value of the Euro
will decline in order to adjust the country’s PPP. In order to relate interest
rates to exchange rates, it is first necessary to relate interest rates to
inflation. This is done through the Fisher effect, which describes the
relationship between inflation and interest rates in two countries. There are
three key elements in the Fisher effect: (a) the nominal rate of interest,
which is the interest rate that is being charged to a borrower; (b) the rate of
inflation in the country; and (c) the real interest rate, which is the difference
between the nominal rate and the inflation rate. The Fisher effect holds that
as inflation rises, so will the nominal interest rate, because lenders will want
to protect the real interest rate. So if bankers in both the United States and
Germany want to earn a five percent real interest rate and the rate of
inflation in Germany is higher than that in the United States, the nominal
rate of interest will also be higher in Germany.
The link between interest rates and exchange rates is explained by the
international Fisher effect (IFE), which holds that the interest rate differential
is an unbiased predictor of future changes in the spot exchange rate. So, if
nominal interest rates in Germany are higher than those in the United States,
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Unit 5, section 3: functions and terminologies used in the foreign exchange
BUSINESS
market
the value of the Euro will fall by that interest rate differential in the future.
This differential is also important in determining forward exchange rates
because this rate would be that which neutralises the difference in interest rates
between the two countries. For example, if interest rates in Germany are
higher than those in the United States, the forward exchange rate for the Euro
would be lower than that for the dollar by the interest rate differential, so the
yield in dollars on a US investment would be equal to the yield in dollars of a
Euro investment, converted at the forward rate. Thus, the forward rate would
allow investors to trade currencies for future delivery at no exchange risk and
no differential in interest income. If such a differential exist, traders would
then take advantage of this situation and earn until the difference is eliminated.
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Unit 5, section 3: functions and terminologies used in the foreign exchange BUSINESS
market
this situation is to negotiate a lower price with the seller and thus share the
effects of the devaluation. A second way is to pass along as much of the
price increase as possible and accept the rest. A third, and complementary,
approach is to take steps to minimise exchange risk, most commonly by
exchange risk avoidance, exchange risk adaptation, risk transfer, or currency
diversification.
UEW/IEDE 169
INTERNATIONAL
Unit 5, section 3: functions and terminologies used in the foreign exchange
BUSINESS
market
170 UEW/IEDE
INTERNATIONAL
Unit 5, section 3: functions and terminologies used in the foreign exchange BUSINESS
market
Activity 5.3
Describe the two main types of foreign exchange management used
today. Provide examples of nations which use each type of system.
Identify and explain any five terminologies used in foreign exchange
market transactions. (refer to your notes)
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