Alisado Ajustado con Factor de Tendencia Exp.

Alisado
Periodo Mes Demanda Ft+1 a=0,5 Tt+1 Aft+1
1 Ene 37 - - -
2 Feb 40 37 0 37.00
3 Mar 41 38.5 0.45 38.95
4 Abr 37 39.75 0.69 40.44
5 May 45 38.38 0.07 38.45 𝐹𝑡+1=𝛼𝐷𝑡+(1−𝛼)
6 Jun 50 41.69 1.04 42.73
7 Jul 43 45.84 1.977 47.82 120
8 Ago 47 44.42 0.96 45.38
9 Sep 56 45.71 1.06 46.77
10 Oct 52 50.86 2.28 53.14 100
11 Nov 55 51.43 1.77 53.20

80

60

40

20

0
Ene Feb Mar Abr
 𝐹𝑡+1=𝛼𝐷𝑡+(1−𝛼)𝐹𝑡

T𝑡+1=𝛽(𝐹𝑡+1−𝐹𝑡)+(1−𝛽)𝑇𝑡

𝐹𝑡+1=𝛼𝐷𝑡+(1−𝛼)𝐹𝑡

Tt+1
0 Aft+1
Demanda

0
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov
 Ajuste Lineal de tendencia
x y xprom 6
1 37 36.59 yprom 45.7
2 40 38.42
3 41 40.25 a 34.76
4 37 42.07 b 1.83
5 45 43.90
6 50 45.73
7 43 47.55 60.00
8 47 49.38
9 56 51.21 50.00
10 52 53.04
11 55 54.86
40.00
12 56.69
66 503
30.00

XY X^2
20.00
37 1
80 4
123 9 10.00

148 16
225 25 0.00
1 2 3 4 5
300 36
301 49
376 64
504 81
520 100
605 121

3219 506
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12