Hello, now that we start to explore agent-based modeling a little bit more.

We have gone over what the class is going to be about.

Let us take a step back and let us go back to discuss what an agent-based model is
in the first place.

But before we discuss what an agent-based model is, I think it is important to

discuss what a model is.

And I find this important because in many ways understanding an agent-based model
involves understanding what the point of modeling is to begin with.

And this is something that many of you may have learned at some point in your
careers.

But it is important to kind of take a refresher and take a step back and discuss
this.

So, I define an agent-based model as an abstracted description of a process,

object, or event.

The important point here is that it is abstracted, it is not a perfect

representation, it does not exactly match up with the real world and the important
thing is that it exaggerates certain aspects at the expense of others.

So, for instance in this particular slide, I have a picture of the earth and
imagine this is actually the real earth that you are trying to model.

On one side we have a particular projection on to a 2-dimensional map of the earth

and what that allows you to see very easily is kind of the delineation between
where the earth is land and where it is water, though, of course, they have been
changing in time as you may not expect.

But it does not allow certain other aspects, for instance it does not really talk
about what is inside the earth. And on the right hand side I have an image you
might see from a traditional intro into earth science textbook or something along
those lines.

Where we show a cutaway of the earth and we can, kind of, see, what the crust is
and what the others aspects are.

Now, neither of these models is a perfect model. Right? Both of these models are
wrong to some extent.

And, in fact, George Box, a famous statistician had a quote to that interpretation
that essentially all models are wrong but some are useful.

The perfect model is not the model that best represents the world around us, but,
instead, is a model that in some ways exaggerates the aspects of the world we are
most interested in and can help us solve the problems we are looking at.

In fact, my advisor, John Holland used to say that models are in some ways like
political cartoons. Right?

They exaggerate and blow up certain aspects while backgrounding and hiding other
aspects, so you can concentrate on the aspects they are trying to make a point
about.
So, given that description of a model, then what is an agent-based model?

Well, an agent-based model in our context is a model that is composed of agents as

you might expend[?].

An agent is an autonomous, individual element with properties and actions in a

computer simulation.

In most of the contexts we going to talk at least it is in a computer simulation.

And agent-based modeling is the idea that the world itself can best be modeled by
using agents and environments and descriptions of agent-agent and agent-environment
interactions.

And the conceptual[?] seeds[?] of agent-based modeling, right, is that this is one
of the best ways to describe the complex systems that we see around us.

Now, over here I have some descriptions of some different types of things that we
may think of agents.

Now, generally when people think of agents they often think of humans, right? Of
individual humans in this context. But an agent does not have to be an individual
human, it could be a company for instance in which case the agent-based model might
be a model of the interactions between the different companies.

It could, in fact, be a human. So in this graph right here I actually have a screen
capture of the NetLogo HIV transmission model, in which case the model is in fact
of agents who are representing humans who might spread HIV from one to the other.

Now, there is no reason why the model had to be built at the level of humans. It
was probably appropriate for the particular purposes for which the model was being
constructed, but it could have been built at the level of , say for instance,
viruses. Right?

In which case it would be a very different model and at a different level of

resolution and probably help you to answer different questions.

A model could also be a government. So here I have a representation of the capital

dome in Washington, DC. And we could instead be modeling the interactions between
governmental agents.

Now, over here I have a representation of Kim Jong Il, right? And I put Kim Jong Il
up there, not as an indication of what you might representation with an agent-based
model, but as a representation of what is often not useful to represent as an
agent-based model.

So, many agent-based models try to characterize overall patterns of behavior.

And when you have one individual who in many ways is erratic, is different from the
overall behavior, it is very hard to, kind of, predict or understand what that
individual is going to do.

Now, in those cases there are other modeling approaches such as ethnographic
modeling or in-depth psychological studies that might give you better
understanding.

But in many cases I suggest not using agent-based models for these.

On the other hand, if you wanted to build a set of agent-based models in which you
tried to understand the role of dictators and despots and something going on along
those lines on a more generalized basis rather than for one particular individual
then agent-based modeling might very well be useful for that context.