Reridezvous Reinvigorating the relationshipSC ee Sura20 Te Ha yt 6: To Hm blogs what te hears and arth and a btn te, nl beneath ai Rendezvous A Reset in Pak-US Relations = There is some self interest behind every friendship. There is no friendship without self interests, This abiter Truth.” —Chanakya foreign policy, indubitably, a success story and economic policy a damp squib as it led to massive price hike inthe country. Pkistan has encountered some serious problems, suchas stagfaton, sharp devaluation of currency and high inflation rate. The directresulto stagflation sa sharp decline in people's income and a sharp increase in unemployment, as wel as major problems insocial stability. However, the government seems justified ints rationale thatthe problems piled up during the past 30-35 years cannot be solved overnight. Athoughit wll ake time, yet reports by international nancial institutions as well asthe State Bank of Pakistan, and crtical analyses by noted fnance gurus suggest that with stringent economic measures coupled with te help of brotherly countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar and an INF bailout package, the economy is out of the ICU now and is on a road to recovery. Itcanbefaity expected thatitwll son be stable again. ‘Onthe other side, the government made great headways on the foreign poicy front. Cancellation ofa cartoon contestby an llamophobe Dutch MP Geert Wilders, instrumental role in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table, release of captured Indian plat, Wing Commander ‘Abhinandan Varthaman, as a goodwill gesture, bold stance on Kashmir issues, persuading Malaysia and Turkey to build a tripartite alliance to ‘ive an effective voice to the Muslim World, turning @ new tide in relations with ran, Saudi Arabia, and other Muslims countries as well as with China speak volumes about the agility and astuteness ofthe Foreign ofce team led by Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi and the vision Prime Minster Imran Khan has forhis'NayaPakista ‘Another feather tothe cap ofthe PTI governments the successful vist of PM Khan tothe United States. President Donald Trump accorded a warm welcome tothe Pakistani premier. tas especially noteworthy because was the same Trump who onyayear anda halfago hadbiamed Pkstan of giving safehavento the terrorists [United States] huntin Afghanistan, wit litle help." And, proving tue tohiswords he suspended $1.66 bilion in security assistance to Pakistan in November last year. But, the time has changed now and the same Trump has received the Pakistani premier with the words: “I's my great honor to have the very popuar and, by the way, great athlete — one ofthe geatest—butvery popular Prime Minister of Pakistan.” He not only praised Pakistan and hinted at exploring new avenues of cooperation between the two ‘countries but aso offered to mediate the Kashmir issue ~ a bombshel forthe Indians as Mr Trump said that Indian premier Narendra Modi has requestedhim or that. He sag, [Kashmirisve] shouldbe resolved... Somaybe well speaktohim (Modi) or!lispeaktoim, and wel seiwe can do something because Ive heard so much about Kashmir. Such a beautiful name. I's supposed tobe such a beautiful part ofthe world. But right now, there's just bombs all ver the place. They say everywhere you go, you have bombs and its a tribe situation, Been going on for many years. ficandoanythingtohelp that letme know.” Khan Trump rendezvous has been very fruitful for Pakistan fortwo things: Fist, the issue of Kashmir has been intemationalized again andit ‘seems tha thee isa growing concem in the United States and the West on growing violations of human rghts that continue unabated in Kashmirat thehands of indian forces. Second, President Trump has hinted atimproving Pak-US tes inthe feds of trade by saying: “We've got thebest economy we've everhad.And|think we can sit some ofthat overt Pakistan. We shouldbe doing tremendous business together” inal, bilateral relations between Pakistan and the United States have been eset after Prime Minister Imran Khan's successful visit and the two \ | he first year ofthe present government of Pakistan Tehreek--Insaf has been a mixture of successes and some failures, with a cae leaders have agreed to strengthen ther partnership o bring peace and economic stabil in South Asia. The visit signifies cogent reasons for thenation tobe hopefulforepairandtransfomation ofthis rayed lateral elatonshipinto anew mutually advantageous partnership basedon shared political, economic and strategic interests. Given the topsy-tuny nature of Pak US relations especialy during the recent years, the meeting withthe President as well 2s those on the sidelines was a much-needed breather. PM Khan's demeanour throughout the tip, particularly during his meeting wit Presiden Trump, was que positve andrelaxed which ld give outtherght message However, our foreign policy makers must nt be show laxtyn pursuing Pakistan's natoalinterestn tis newly-emergedstuationitmustbe remembered tha this paradigm shitn President Trump's behaviour hasbeen ony due this growing fusaton onthe Afghanistanissue which he himself pointed when he said: have plans on Afghanistan tha, if| wanted to win that war, Aghanistan would be wiped of the face ofthe Earth. would be gone. it would be overin — literally in 10 days, And dont want to do —I don't wantto go thatroute. Sowe're working withPakistanand othersto extricate ourselves.” The history of Pak US relations has been of short term strategic impulses and the known inconsistency onthe pat ofthe United States in its foreign policy undertakings. Tis means that we have to temper with a pragmatic approach in dealing with the trumphaism hathas permed the coir of powerinlslamabed, The poicymakers must keep supreme the slogan “Pakistan Firs’in their endeavours as well as during engagements with the Americans. ‘Adel es ne canonlyhopethatthefresh tart bein the bestinterestsofthe county. sdclnias78@gailcom | i 1 Facebook som/ AdeeNias}WTee (eo ona Contents GENERAL 5 | From the Editor's Desk 8 | Letters to the Editor 9 |ICC Cricket World Cup 2019 27 | Boris Johnson 34 Charter of Economy’ or ‘Charter of Democracy?” RESEARCH REPORT 35 | Europe Heatwave Soe 58 | Narcotics-trafficking and Terrorism 67 | Pakistan's 3 Biggest Issues INTERNATIONAL 12 | Economic Sanctions and International Law 20 | World War Ill { 91] 24 | Global Peace and Security a eg 28 | China's Belt and Road of Science € www. jworldtimes.com vanities —2 angi a OTT TTS re ‘ io NATIONAL 38 | Governance Challenges Confronting Pakistan 42 | Ehsas Programme 46 | The FATF Conundrum 50 | Tackling the Menace of Unemployment 54 | Attributes of A Good Tax System 56 | Education in Pakistan 68 | Anti-Americanism in Pakistan EXAM PACK 80 | National Interest i ) ] 84 | Global Economic Prospects 85) l 1) 95| CSS Interview 98 | Liaquat Ali Khan 108 | World in Focus i www. facebook. com/JWorldTimes pense onionsThe Population Bomb ory is celebrated every’ -yearon July ‘A1t0 Jord Population 351 masses regarding ly, population issues faved. especialy, PY ns counties. The event was fist organizedin 1985 Jation of the wor itera came rapid pace- wc gs further expected to aia high increase in the population, challenges like shortage ‘of water, a public transportation, health, eee unbridled growth of population ‘that new reforms ‘should be int disadvantages of such a huge ‘way. Pakistan should also fol wwe can uplift the socioecon: Pakistan. Climate Action akistan is the 8th most affected country from climate change, and it has become a water- stressed country because its reservoirs can store water equivalent to 30 days of consumption, whereas the standard minimum requirement is 120 days. Nawabshah in Sindh recorded, in April 2018, the highest temperature ever recorded globally on that day. Floods and hydro-disasters since 2010 have become an annual feature. Riverine commu- nities routinely get wiped away without even a mention by media. And if itis not the floods, the calamity of drought is afflicting misery in Tharpakar and several other regions particularly in Balochistan. To cope with these challenges, tree plantation is the major factor to focus. As the new government of Pakistan has promised to plant 10, billion trees during its five-year tenure, we must support the process so as to accelerate climate action. The focus must be on key sector where action can make the most difference — heavy industry, nature-based solutions, cities, energy, resilience, climate finance and more research and appropriate adaptation measures are required to ‘counter the negative impacts of climate Change. Dr Zeeshan Khan Lahore 21 jlation of Pakistan is about. Sete cross 300 million by 2050. Due to a an is facing serious Jectricity, jobs, infrastructure, Son and rer, AN ‘ wistine ‘a big threat for Pakistan. oe for family Lables ~ tre maseosregerdng hci China has reduced ty yowth rate of population in decent bit rae and conta ewe sutbecase ste ont Way omic conditions of the people of Petters ta the Editor For feedback and suggestions please write to us a= Gee ene or eee fas 5 billion. The current ea iso increasing at @ }0 milion Tax Amnesty Scheme Are caine has Had Fi Beaharan eae ‘Opportunity to beneficial owners of benami ment intended to strictly enforce the Benami Act, ETRE MEE venesedsecnta cal just after the maturity of amnesty’s final date, started a tural land nationwide. This is the right step and the ince ‘Khoshab The Epic Wimbledon Final rn what can be considered as one of the best tennis matches of | latime, Novak Djokovic defeated eight-time champion Roger Federerin the Wimbledon 2019 final. Many would regard this as the greatest final in men’s tennis history in the years to come, and it is fitting that two greats of the game made it possible. Only a true tennis fan would be able to appreciate the spectacie that these two players put on which got the whole world talking. Our very own tennis player, Aisam-ul-Hag, also played in this prestigious tournament but lost in the 3rd round of both the men’s doubles and ‘mixed doubles events. It is disappointing to note that he is Paki- stan's only professional tennis player, and at 39 years of age is stil playing among the best players in the world. na country where only Cricket is given attention, other sports and athletes are overshad- ‘owed. The sports sector in Pakistan needs to be promoted and we ‘as a nation should appreciate the players that bring laurels to our Wagar Ahsan PeshawarBV AeA ICM MLR arse) Watrecanad ’ rN reagan) 4 oe rN ea cit ww Py f.\ FOLUEN Ga ee Reed Gu eee Ce cede aI yee 3 Mas EC UaMTAccc nee aa eee ee eed cc! won) ble SE ES od 1 aston ed 8 antes a ae ee ‘a0) saan Pomc) eg 208 tesrticle 37 (d) of the Constitution of Pakistan, 1973, guarantees that every citizen of the state has the right to “inexpensive and expeditious” justice, yet one of the foremost grievances against the legal system in the country is its sheer lethargy, resulting in a massive backlog of cases. At the beginning of the year, there were an estimated 1.9m cases pending in the country’s courts. In this backdrop, the incumbent Chief Justice of Pakistan, Asif Saeed Khan Khosa, proposed the setting up of model courts in every district of the country to conduct daily trials. The setting up of model courts has proved to be a very quam fruitful exercise Although the success of model courts set up by the CJP has | Se Muhammad Ali hope that with appropriate interventions, the judicial system in Pakistan may be mended. The judges appointed for these courts ensure a speedy trial and also prefer to take a case per day and move towards resolution. Due to the involvement of multiple stakeholders in the process, it has become quite efficient totackleacasea day Encouraged by the success of the initiative, the JP decided to replicate the model on the civil side. He recently announced the establish ment of Model Civil Appellate Courts and Model Trial Magistrate Courts, which shall also operate on strict timelines, and through the adoption of certain pre- trial procedures shorten the duration of trials. py ‘The reforms inthe legal system of Pakistan have been long debated due to great CC er tl system. This backlog has increasingly pushed the masses towards alternative ‘means of justice which are speedy, if not efficent. However, n this bleak state of See ee Lon eee Promise of resolving this issue and introducing reforms which will be abe to Ce ee a Se ee oe en ens Cee kato ‘mandate to decide pending murder and narc Seen not been publicised by the media, they are being considered a ‘silent revolution’ in the judicial history of Pakistan. Basic objective behind establishing Model Courts was to provide inexpensive and expeditious Justice to the masses. An idea of the performance of these courts can be had from a statement by the incumbent CJP where he said that as many as 5800 trials were decided through model courts in 48 working days. This is indeed a stellar performance Bringing down the processing time of a criminal case from 4-5 years to 3 months is quite an impressive feat and the CJP must be commended for this. The timelines prescribed under existing rules of civil and criminal procedures, often flouted by litigants and judicial officers alike, have, in the past, largely proved insignificant in addressing the problem of delay. However, with a zero tolerance policy for adjourn- ments and procedures in place to ensure timely Production of witnesses, the MCTCs have, quite surprisingly, decided over 5,800 cases within a period of two and a half months. The figures furnish some 10 ICTCs) were set up across the country with the ee | www.jworidtimes.com August 2019 |jaduo> sa40 IE *9S1N- Sd - D = ANEN ed - 4¥d - WIN SIN - 2Sd>IrV- Sd D$dd “ISAS: ISd4-SINd “S59 Jo syueuidse 943 405 ysog S113 -Lv93- 4 9SdS~ ISdd jo syueudse ayy 403 359g, ABs0ua °9 AauOW anes A 400g Ang 0} paau oN A Awapere ue Jo paauon A awiyAuy ‘aiaymiuy daig A Aed »g aynwwo> 0} paau oN A A azAleuy syd ‘SWOIP| ~ Ge20A JOT IM $8ZZIND Ys!}8UZ HOS 22192eJq :pue ddy ysii8ug MoH peojumo, ddy sd3¥d MoH Peojumog, cee jaa4 dasg 18a) angNadwon YEN INO, 1335 5,127 2 s Pa) z o o = o s 3 S a s » ° 5 o gS a a + 1A éAnUapyuod pue AjjuaNy Ysi{ug Used] 0} UE SdduddMoHWith the success of comprehensive financial sanctions against Iran over nuclear proliferation during the Obama administration, policymakers in Washington have grown more confident that economic sanctions are potent instruments for inducing concessions from hostile countries. The growing belief in the effectiveness of coercive economic instruments has increased the prevalence of sanctions and made them the primary instrument for the ‘Trump administration, Whether in Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea or one of the 20 countries under the boot of US sanctions, the Trump administration is using its economic weight to try to exact regime change or major policy ‘changes in countries around the globe. Dr M, Usmani flitary might be the most potent weapon inthe When Trump campaigned for office in 2016, he rejected arsenal of the United States, however, __ the frequent US resort to war in the Middle East. During sanctions have once again - after a brief Iull___the years between 1990 and 2016, the US launched two following the politically-disastrous grain major wars with Iraq (1990 and 2003), as well as wars in embargo and pipeline sanctions in the early Afghanistan (2001), Libya (2011) and Syria (2012). Italso 1980s - become the weapon of choice participated in many smaller military interven- to enforce amyriad of US foreign tions (Mali, Somalia and Yemen, among Policy goals, from countering terrorism others). While the Syrian War is often to battling drug trafficking. President described as a civil war, it was, in Donald Trump has based his fact, a war of regime change led by foreign policy on a series of harsh the US and Saudi Arabia under a economic sanctions, each US presidential directive designed to frighten, coerce called Timber Sycamore. and even starve the target However, none of these US-~ country into submitting to led wars could achieve the American demands. The US political objectives, and Treasury identifies 30 the major conflicts have active sanctions been followed by chronic programmes that include, violence and instability. according to one estimate, ‘The attempt to oust Syria's 7,967 operating sanctions. Bashar al-Assad from However, while the practice power led to a proxy war - of imposing economic eventually involving the sanctions is less violent US, Syria, Russia, Saudi than a military attack, the Arabia, Qatar, Iran, Turkey, consequences are often dire Israel, and the United Arab for civilian populations. As Emirates - that displaced such, economic sanctions by over ten million Syrians and the United States should be caused around a half-million scrutinized by the United violent deaths. Nations Security Council under While Trump has so far eschewed a international law and the UN new war, he has continued US Ce ae te et regime-change efforts by other TANYA STITH TCU EL CNB el Raat ae eh ae ee een eee eee rc) Ce One ec ee Oneonta eter eat 12 www.jworidtimes.com August 2019U.S. sanctions hit Iran hard U.S. President Donald Trump's ‘sanctions against Iran have triggered a collapse in economic growth, pushing the Islamic republic Into deep recession ‘and lifting Inflation towards 40 percent tran’s oll produetion (mition barels per day ~ bd) 8. May 8, 2018: U.S, auits nuclear deal, reinstates sanctons 2018: Ian's economy _—_ Contracts by 3.9%. GOP expected to shrink by further 6% in 2019, ‘Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action la015 8 7 NB no Pee ey ney Err) ced 10bn in oll revenue www.jworldtimes.com August 2019 TT means. Trump is often called an isolationist, but he is as interventionist as. his predecessors. His strategy, at least so far, has been to rely more heavily on US economic power than military might to coerce adversaries, which creates its own kind of cruelty and de-stabilization. And, it constantly risks flaring into outright war, as occurred with Iran last month. The Trump administration currently is engaged in three attempts at comprehensive economic sanctions, against North Korea, Venezuela and Iran, as well as several lesser sanctions against countries such as Cuba and Nicaragua, and an intensifying effort to cut off China's access to technol- ogy. The sanctions against North Korea are sanctioned, at least in part, by the UN Security Council, the ones against Iran are in direct opposition to the UNSC, and against Venezuela these are so far without Security Council engagement. The US is attempting to isolate the three countries from almost all international trade, causing shortages of food, medicine, energy and spare parts for basic infrastructure, including the water supply and power grid. In North Korea, many decades of sanctions, coupled with extended periods of drought, have left millions of the nation’s 25 million people malnourished and impoverished. Rural areas in particular lack medicine and clean water. Even more stringent sanctions imposed in 2018 banned ‘most of the country’s exports, reducing the government's ability to pay for imported food to alleviate the shortages. Sanctions on North Korea operate mainly through UN-mandated sanctions regime, and include a ‘comprehensive list of exports to and imports from North Korea, and financial relations with North Korean entities. The UN Food and Agricul- ‘ture Organization (FAO) recently reported that ten million North Koreans were at risk of hunger, partly owing to sanctions. “[TJhe unintended negative impact sanctions can have on agricultural production, through both direct and indirect impacts, cannot be ignored,” the FAO warned. “The most obvious are restrictions on the importation of certainitems that are necessary for agricultural production, in particular fuel, machinery and spare parts for equipment.” The draconian US sanctions on Venezuela have come in two phases. The first, beginning in August 2017, was mainly directed at the state oil company PDVSA, the country’s main earner of foreign exchange; the second round of sanctions, imposed in January 2019, was more comprehensive, targeting the Venezuelan government. A recent detailed analysis of the first round of sanctions shows their devastating impact. The US sanctions gravely exacerbated previous economic mismanagement, contributing to a catastrophic fall in oil production, hyperinflation, economic collapse (outputis down by half since 2016), hunger and rising mortality. US sanctions against Iran have been in place more or less continuously since 1979. The most recent and by far most draconian measures, introduced in August 2018 and intensified in the first half of this year, aim to cut Iran off from foreign trade. The US sanctions are in direct contra vention of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which endorsed the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran. The effects have been devastating, The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Iran's economy will shrink by 10% between 2017 and 2019, with inflation reaching 30% this year. Medicines are in short supply. One might expect that other countries would easily circumvent US sanc- tions. But the US has threatened to punish foreign companies that violate the sanctions and has used the dollar's global clout as a bludgeon, threat~ ening to sanction foreign banks that finance trade with Iran. European 13companies have fallen into line, despite the European Union's express desire to engage economi- cally with Iran. Over the longer term, itis likely that more ways Will be found to circumvent the sanctions, using renminbi, ruble, or euro financing, yet the erosion of US sanctions will only be gradual. Despite the intense economic pain * indeed calamity - inflicted on North Korea, Venezuela and Iran, none of them has succumbed to US demands. In this sense, sanctions have proved to be no more successful than military interven- «tion. North Korea has maintained, and most likely is expanding, its nuclear arsenal. The Iranian regime rejects US demands concerning its missile programme and foreign policies. And Vene- zuela's President Nicolés Maduro remains in power. The US sanctions have been carried out by presidential decree, with almost no public debate and no systematic oversight by Congress. This has been a one- man show, even more so than in the case of president-led wars, which trigger vastly more public scrutiny. Trump realizes that he can impose crippling sanctions abroad with almost no direct costs to the US public or budget, and with virtually no political account ability. Military sanctions are acts of war, and, therefore, subject to interna~ tional law, including UN Security Council oversight. America's economic sanctions are similar in function and outcome to military sanctions, with devastating consequences for civilian popula~ tions, and risk provoking war. Itis time for the Security Council to take up the US sanctions regimes and weigh them against the requirements of international law and peacekeeping. 8) 4 EN eae Economic sanction ae defined asthe withdrawal of customary trade and nancial relations for foreign ‘and securty policy purposes. They may be comprehensive, prohibiting commercial activity wih regard to an entre county, ike the long-standing US embego of Cuba, or they may be targeted, blocking transactions of and wih parcuar businesses, groups or individuals. Governments and mulation bodies impose economic sanctions ot toate the strategic decsons of sate and non-state actors that teatn ta ress ove neatoal noms of bohaveu. Santon ake vary ‘forms, inuding travel bans, asset freezes, arms embargoes, capital estan, foreign ad reductions and trade restricions. National governments and interational botes tke the United Natons and European Union have imposed economic sanctions to coerce, deter, punish or shame entities that ‘endanger thernterests or viltzinterationalnoms ofbehaviur. Theyavebeen usedtovancea range of foreign poicy goals, including counterterrorism, counter-narcotes, nonproliferation, ‘democracy and huran rights promotion, confit resolution and cybersecuty ‘Cs say sanctions are often poorly conceived and rarely successful in changing a target's conduc, while supporters contend they have become mare effective in reent years and remain an essential foreign poly tod. Sancfons have become the dering feature ofthe Westem response to several _geopoitical challenges, including Noth Korea's nuclear programme and Russa'sinterventonin Ukraine. Economic Sanctions and Just War Theory ‘Avast majority of witers points othe analogies between economic sanctions and war and use just war theory 28 a framework within which to assess their moral prmissiblty. Some extend the framework only to collective, comprehensive economic sanctions whileothes extenditt all ypes of ‘economicsanctons. ust war theory is splint two parts: jus ad bellum, which ets out the principles that must be followed fortheresotto war tobe jst and usin bell, which ses out the principles that mus be followed during | war. Those wites who employ ust war thearyas amoral ramework believe that these principles ofjust | war theory canbe appropriate as amoral ameworkfor economic sanctions. There are sxprincpes of | jJusadbellum. Forthe resortto wart be ust, al sixconditors mustbe mt. ‘Just Cause: There mustbe aust cause for war. n mainstream just war theory ust cause i ited to: (1) the defence ofa state rom an actual orimminent itary attack; and (2) humanitarian intervetonin Cases where asta commiting extemely serioushuran rights violation against oun ctzens. Proportionalty: The harm that willbe caused by the war must nt be disproportionate othe good that itishoped willbe achieved. For economic sanctions, tis principle is met f the good achieved bythe ‘sanconss expected to outweigh he harms of thse sanctons. Right Intention: The decision to go to war must be made withthe right ntenion — the intention to achieve the just cause. The jst cause must not be a pretext fr some unjust end that is secretly intended. Therefore, economic sancions mustbe imposed wth the intention of defending a state from atackor stoppingreducing human ros voatons. Legitimate Authority: The decison to go o war must be made by @ legitimate authority. Thatis, one \which has the moral right to act on behalf ofits people and take them into a war. In ntemational law thereisa presumption that the government ofa states are legitimate authorities, Last Resort: Wer must be the last resort Given the horendous harms it creates, war must be ecessay in order to be just f other, ess harmful, alternatives are avalabe such as economic sanctions ordplomaticmeasures, then wars not necessary andthereforenojust. Reasonable Chance of Success: There must be reasonable chance of success, Thiss to prevent hopeless wars where people ie pointless. This condton is particulary pertinent for economic sanctions. Discrimination: The prindple of cscrimination requires attackers to distinguish between two asses ‘of people in war: combatants and non-combatans, and sipultes her diferent retment. Inthe case ‘of economic sanctions though, who ae the equivalent of ‘combatant’ and non-combatant? Albert. Perce argues thatthe individuals fling nto the lasso combatants’ are those who are actualy part of ‘the causal chain of evens that ld tothe objectionable or unlawful policy: those who planned and ‘organised and hose who are camyingitout ‘The just war framework leads many witers to conclude that collective sancions are abways impermissible because they violate the ust wa principle of discrimination. Pierce, Winker and Amstutz {further extend the use of just war rncples to targeled economic sancons and conclude that targeted ‘economic sanctions tat dont harm non-combatants’ may be moray permissible because its atleast theoretically possible that they can meet al the just war principles. This would eppear tobe a neat soltontotheissue ofthe ethics ofeconomicsancions, However, here are objections this approach. ‘www.jworldtimes.com August 2019DE Power Play in the 0 India, China and the United States, the three major powers, which together account for nearly half of the global economy, are ‘ying for influence in the Indian Ocean arena. All three of them view the. region through their own geostrategic frameworks, ensuring intense josting at best, or confict at worst. India has the “Security and Growth for ll the Region framework, a combination ‘ofits Act (or Look) East and Think West policies. China has the Maritime Sik Road, whichis half ofthe Belt and Road Initiative while the United States has the Indo- Pacific Strategy (also ‘known as the Free and Open Indo-Pacific), a natural successor to the ‘Asia-Pacifie e-balance. 16 Indian cean The Great Game Moves to Sea he Indian Ocean region will continue to be buffeted by tripolar competition involving China, India and the United States. Each state's approach to the increasingly crowded Indian. Ocean environs is informed by history, economic interests and simple geography. Three significant divergences in the three countries’ frameworks are their perspectives on the Middle East, Pakistan's regional role and the balance between military and non-military foreign policy tools. Friction resulting from any of these divergences could undermine the success of any of these national strategies. Ultimately, China's more integrated strategy may give it an edge over America’s more disjointed approach and India's more inward focus. India India defines the region as extending from M. Sheraz the African littoral to Southeast Asia. In 2015, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi put forward “Security and Growth for Al in the Region,” or SAGAR, as an early, high- level articulation of the Indian vision. In 2017, the then External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj specifically defined the region as extending from the Gulf of Aden in the west, through Chabahar Port in southwest Iran, and over to Myanmar and Thailand in the east. Notably, India does not view Pakistan as a part of this regional cooperation strategy, instead sees it as an enemy. Similarly, India tries to isolate its Jong history of land border disputes with China from its wider policy towards the Indian Ocean, even though countering Beijingis one of New Delhi's goals. India's focus on the Indian Ocean is relatively new, dating back only to the 1990s. For most of the period since it www jworldiimes.com August 2019Importance of the Indian Ocean ‘The indian Ocean covers at least one-fth of the worlds total ocean area and is bounded by Aca and the Arabian Peninsula (known as the westem Indian Ocean), India's coastal waters (the central Indian Ocean), andthe Bay of Bengal near Myanmar and Indonesia (the eastem Indian Ocean). It provides cticl sea trade routes that connect the Middle East, Afica and South Asia with the broader Asian continent tothe east and Europe to the ‘west. Anumber ofthe worlds most important strategic chokeponts, including the Stats of Hormuz and Malacca through which 32.2 mlios of barels of crude ol and petroleum are transported per day—more than 60 percent of the word's marie oil trade—are found inthe Indian Ocean Region, which itself is believed tobe rch wth energy reserves. Nearly 40 percent ofthe world's offshore petroleum is produced inthe Indian Ocean, coastal ‘beach sands and offshore waters hostheavy mineral deposits, and fisheries are increasingly important forboth exports and domestic consumption. gained independence in 1947, India has been preoccupied with land border threats posed by Pakistan and China, and has apparently lacked the ambition and capacity to exert influence beyond its immediate neighbours. However, starting in the early 1990s, India had to look further afield to address severe economic problems and cope with the loss of its closest strategic partner, Le. the Soviet Union. New Delhi initiated the Look East policy to build trade and commercial ties to booming Southeast and East Asian states, which have been crucial in stimulating India's economic growth and its economic and geopolitical rise more generally. New Delhi has also built closer trade and economic ties with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman and Iran to secure energy resources for its growing economy, to expand trade and commercial links and to support the Indian diaspora working in these countries. As a result, India's more militarized continental approach has begun to shift over the past quarter-century toward an economically focused strategy for theregion. In economic terms, India's recent budget has raised the allocation for providing financial aid to friendly countries in the Indian Ocean Region by over 26 percent. The aid budget has not just been raised, but redirected as well While Bhutan retains its slot as India's largest aid recipient, Indian Ocean island countries and littoral states feature high on the list of large aid recipients. After www.jworldtimes.com August 2019 Bhutan, tiny Mauritius will be the second-largest recipient of Indian aid. Another island nation, the Maldives, is in the fourth place. ‘As such, New Delhi has emphasized commercial investment, infrastructure and diplomatic engagement. ‘These drivers will remain dominant because growing trade and commercial ties, including energy imports, are critical to India’s domestic economy and electoral politics. Military and security factors are gaining importance as China increases its military presence in the Indian Ocean — in particular, Indian Navy is increasingly focussed on countering its Chinese counterpart. However, absent a direct confrontation, it seems likely that military factors will remain secondary drivers. In addition, the dominance of the army in Indian military planning, together with persistent problems in acquiring advanced naval and air equipment to operate in the Indian Ocean, will continue to undermine India’s ability to be a strategic partner to the United States in the region. This is true despite enthusiastic advocacy by India's navy and air forces, which is then amplified in the Indian press and think tank community. China China takes a more sweeping approach. It defines South Asia and the Indian Ocean as an extension of its Maritime Silk Road, the trade and infrastructure corridor linking coastal China to other Asian countries. The Maritime Silk Road is half of China's broader Belt and Road Initiative, 7EEE which seeks to expand China's links throughout Eurasia. Thus, Beijing treats the region as extending from coastal China, through Southeast Asia, into the Indian Ocean, and all the way to the Saudi peninsula and African littoral. Chinese view of the region is an integral part of a broader geo-economic and geostrategic vision for China and the world. The land half of Belt and Road, the Silk Road Economic Belt, extends from western China through Central Asia to the Middle East, the Caucasus, and Russia, Both axes have endpoints in Europe and, at its grandest ambition, the BRI appears to be a plan for China to dominate Eurasia. This broad geographic vision leads Beijing to pursue an integrated set of trade, commercial, diplomatic and military initiatives from the South China Seato the African|ittoral. The original drivers of the Belt and Road Initiative are trade and commercial factors, not military ones. Beijing is seeking to use the project to sustain its economic growth AID FLOW RAISED BY 26% Largest aid recipients ee Largest aid recipients the most important elements of the Belt and Road sinceiit provides a direct land bridge from China to the Arabian Sea and allows trade access to support economic development in China's restive west. Mlustrating its priorities, China has promised some $60 billion to develop this corridor and has already made substantial investments in Pakistan focusing on energy and transport infrastructure, including the port of Gwadar in western Pakistan. While some doubt the viability of many of these projects, this investment clearly reflects Beifing’s view that Pakistan is essential toits regional strategy. ‘TheUnitedStates ‘The US strategy toward South Asia and the Indian Ocean arena is an extension of an Asia-Pacific perspective based con over seven decades of US leadership and forward presence in East Asia. The current iteration of this view is the Indo-Pacific Strategy, a natural evolution of the “rebalance,” or “pivot,” toward Asia initiated in 2011. Importantly, the strategy ties the growing US-India relationship to the wider Asia-Pacific region, reflecting the growing economic, trade and diplomatic links between the littoral countries of the Indian Ocean and those in Southeast and East Asia. (INE CR) in 2019-20 inthelastdeade However, the geographical reach of the Bhutan (2,802) re Bhutan (32,280) Indo-Pacific Strategy essentially stops at 5 the India-Pakistan border and heads Maurtus(1,100) Afghanistan (855) south in a rough line to Antarctica. The Nepal(1,050) __Maurtius(660)__Nepal (4,156) United States largely excludes Pakistan, Maldives(576) __Afghanistan(470) —Maurius(2,520) a ee - — African littoral from its conception of the Arica (450) Maldives(4u0) —_—_Africa(2,368) Indo-Pacific region. For 15 years, the ‘Myanmar(400) Myanmar(370) Srilanka (2,317) United States has actively sought to de~ “aefarisen 00) ESO WeWane (LTT) hhyphenate India from Pakistan as a part through increased international trade, domestic interior devdevelopment, and management of internal security concerns in Xinjiang and Tibet. It is only in the past few years that military drivers have come to play a greater role in the strategy; for example, the establishment of a military base in Djibouti. These factors still remain secondary given the importance China places on its economy and internal stability. In this regard, Beijing and New Delhi share the view that trade and commercial initiatives should play the dominant role in regional strategies. Unlike with India’s strategy for the Indo-Pacific, however, Pakistan is a central element of China's approach, linking the maritime and continental components of the Belt and Road Initiative. India, and to a lesser degree the United States, views Pakistan as a declining power that should be internationally isolated for its support of terrorism. In contrast, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is one of 18 of an effort to build ties to New Delhi. Moreover, in contrast to China, the United States sees Pakistan as a part of its South Asia policy, which is focused on counter-terrorism. Along the same lines, the US approach treats Iran, the Arabian Peninsula and the African littoral as Middle Eastern or continental African issues. The resulting strategy in this area is totally shaped by concerns about energy, counter-terrorism and other security matters, This conceptualization is appropriate given America's strategic interests in the Middle East, its ongoing troop commitment to Afghanistan, and its global role; nonetheless, it is a notably different definition from India’s and China's. The US definition is largely based on almost four decades of the military command boundaries between Indo- Pacific Command (INDO-PACOM) and Central Command (CENTCOM), although part of the African littoral falls in Africa Command's (AFRICOM) area of responsibility. In contrast, Indian and Chinese visions have evolved more recently, allowing these two countries to better take into www.jworidtimes.com August 2019account contemporary geopolitical factors. Indeed, in shaping the Indo-Pacific Strategy, the United States largely hewed to the military's geographical definition - which contributes to the emphasis on military means. To be sure, perspectives differ between and within US military and civilian agencies, but in general, the mismatch in resources and effort between military and non-military bureaucracies gives the edge to the former. ‘The South Asian and Indian Ocean regions have not escaped the shortage of US diplomatic personnel, high turnover in key positions, and international uncertainty about America's global role. As a result, the United States increasingly has only one tool in its toolbox for these regions: the military. Despite policymakers’ intentions, the Indo-Pacific Strategy has largely evolved into a military-dominant strategy, shaped by the military's longstanding role in defining the region's geography and driven by the need to counter China militarily. This will limit America’s ability to counter Chinese infrastructure investment and economic cooperation, allowing China to make political inroads with regional governments looking for investment and aid. Compounding the friction resulting from this militarized strategy is the deepening US-China trade war undermining bilateral relations. Prospects of a Tripolar Great Game More than any other current factor, India and China's relative emphasis on non— military foreign policy tools, in contrast to America’s use of armed forces to achieve foreign policy objectives, will determine the fate of the three competing strategies. However, adjustments in US strategy, especially increasing non-military investments and diplomatic engagement and focusing more on collaborative economic ties in the region, can help address the tensions resulting from this disconnect. China’s large and growing economic investment is reshaping the region, forcing regional governments and the United States to adapt. Smaller states, largely focused on economic development and internal security, seek to avoid direct military confrontations and are averse to choosing an exclusive large power patron. Assuming Beijing continues collaborative trade and commercial initiatives, investing vast sums of money, its influence is likely to continue growing. However, despite its wealth, China faces two major risks. First, if Beijing's actions come to light or come to be perceived as neo-colonialism, Beljing will face costly regional reversals — as it recently did in the Maldives, for example. Rhetoric about “win- win" notwithstanding, China's Belt and Road policies increasingly mirror those of European colonial powers seeking concessions in Imperial China. Second, China's ‘www.jworldtimes.com August 2019 growing military presence in the region could end up ‘being an expensive foray that yields minimal comparative advantage relative to India or the United States in the event of awar. India, as the largest country inthe Indian Ocean region and the one that controls the air and sea lines of communication, has the potential to dominate geographically. Although India has steadily increased its engagement with the region in the past two decades, it faces several challenges to its further expansion. It lacks the resources to compete head-to-head with China in trade and commercial investments. Its naval and air modernization is plagued by inefficiencies, corruption and competing requirements. It still has major domestic economic challenges and competing social priorities. ‘These factors compel New Delhi to carefully calibrate its resistance to Beijing. India's new strategic partner, the United States, is proving to be bilaterally confrontational, regionally destabilizing, and globally unpredictable. The resulting destabilization and increased chances of a US China war that India wants to avoid further incentivize Indian calibration. ‘Smaller countries will be caught between the lure of Chinese largesse and a broad preference for a US-led security architecture and rules-based system. Despite the , formation of the International Development Finance Corporation and ongoing Millennium Challenge Corporation efforts, and the US pledge of $113 million in non-military aid in 2018 to the Indo-Pacific strategy stands in stark contrast to the tens of billions China has spent on the Maritime Sik Road for civilian infrastructure and economic projects. A US shift to focus on diplomacy and increased aid through the collaborative multilateral forums and trade agreements that smaller states favour will effectively exploit regional concern about Chinese influence. 19ven hetero ga crisis as well a5 US HID safely be dubbed as sea rasee aiargete possible initiators of a third world war. arbaslgleat racord Pew the United States that is Involved In some capaci. I has along history of tna bechtag Jones iran pests of the world Some eames of such interventionist foreign poley inde tan (1953), Guatemala (1950), Congo (1960, Dominian Republic (96D, South Vietnam (1963), Brazil (1964, Ctule (1973, aq (1992 and 2003), Syria In 2011, and finaly Uszaine (2014. Current the United States 1s putting “maximum pressure” against Ammer tates tn ado, inorder to exercise its domineering influence, the US maintains hundreds of military 20 Py probable occurrence of third world war, nowadays, form the Deo Bree aot Ce eed Oe aera Cnr) Cr ee Pe auton Sra) Coe Ce eae) Cee ee ey ue Ty result in third global war. This Poser such questions and providing erect See Ce Cec Td Serna wi Abdul Rasool Syed This and basis in a number of countries. policy of policing the world constant warfare could easily escalate into a global conflict. Modern geopolitics is a delicate balance of power and, in many ways, similar to a game of chess; the piece is moved uickly and the powers can quickly rise and fall, the fact of the matter is that the more conflict US instigates, the more likely it is that it would be responsible for third world war China, another economic and military giant, may also create circumstances that would lead to WWII Many of those who follow China's expansionist moves in South China Sea believe that if any time, the third world war starts, China would certainly be a reason behind it. China's policy of extendi territorial claims on foreign territories as well as its artificial island programme has brought it into direct conflict with Vietnam, South Korea, Philippines and Japan. And, because of heightened tensions in the Vietnam is employin; vw. jworldtimes.com August 2019to build up its army to'miateh its strength with People's Liberation Army. At the same time, Japan is also considering to re-arm itself. On top oft, the reintegration of Taiwan has been a long, cherished dream of Beijing. However, it can be safely concluded that if China attempts to annex Taiwan, the move would, for sure, invite the US wrath, and the ensuing tension might spiral out of control. In addition, the US and China of late have not drawn any tight connection between the trade war and ongoing disputes in South China Sea. As relations between the two countries deteriorate, one country or the other might up the ante beyond dollars, words and legal filings. Indeed, if China and the US conclude that their trade is at substantial risk, and similarly agree that a conflict is inevitable, then they would decide to take off the gloves in South China Sea. Another big player in the potential third world war may be a revisionist Russia. After the Cold War, Russia-US relations were relatively stable. In 1990's, former Russian Iran, a country that is often painted in the Western media as an unstable yet very aggressive regime can also contribute to the beginning of world war Il. Iran, equipped with abounding hydrocarbon resources, skilled human capital and unparalleled expertise in science and technology ‘enjoys hegemonic influence in the Middle East. This is what makes the country an anathema for America as well a illegitimate child, ie. Israel. That is why America is putting economic and military pressure on Iran in order to clip its ‘wings of power in the region. Besides Israel, Iran could also enter into conflict with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Iran's main competitors in the region. However, any attack on Turkey would directly involve North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) into the conflict since all the members of NATO are obligated to come to the aid of ‘Turkey under Article 5 of the NATO Charter. On the other hand, any strike on Saudi Arabia, would, certainly, ensue in US intervention as Riyadh is Washington's key ally in the president, Boris Yeltsin, and his American counterpart Bill Clinton developed a strong relationship that brought the two erstwhile adversaries closer. Yeltsin's successor Vladimir Putin also enjoyed a somewhat similar relationship with President Bush. The two leaders stood side by side in 2005 Victory Day parade. Today, however, Putin's soaring influence in the Middle East, Central Asia and Eastern Europe has caused the two countries to be at draggers drawn against each other. Israel, a sworn friend and indispensable ally of the United States in the Middle East, can also pave the way for third world war. Israel's relations with its immediate neighbours are not cordial. Its aggressive and hawkish posture on Palestinian Muslims is, certainly, bound to invite a befitting response from the Muslim world. And if this happens, America, while keeping up its tradition of interventionism, might come to rescue Israel. This very situation, thus, may lead to the breaking of WWIIL www.jworldtimes.com August 2019 region. However, Iran is not devoid of allies; it enjoys all-out support of Russia and China since the interests of both, that is, to limit the US influence in the region, converge and, therefore, they find Iran as a valuable ally to further their respective agenda in the Middle East. Kim Joung Un's North Korea, which is in possession of nukes, intercontinental ballistic missiles, hydrogen bombs and other arms, also poses an enormous threat to the world. Kim is constantly found threatening South Korea and the United States. One miscalculation could trigger a devastating war in this region. Historically, both North Korea and South Korea have been pawns in the cold war that engulfed the world from 1950s till the fall of the mighty Soviet Union. China and Russia have been patrons of North whereas the US and its Western allies patronized the South. Of all the conflict zones on the planet, this one, according 2Te to war experts, has the makings to trigger the global war pulling China and Russia on the one side and US, Japan and other western countries on the other. Syria, currently teetering under the claws of a drawn-out ‘war, is also a potential trigger of the third global war. In Syria, the major world powers, e.g. the United States and Russia, are fighting through their proxies. Both are providing, money, men and material to their respective allies. President Assad’s main goal in the beginning was to ‘wipe out the opposition and prevent the civilian war from escalating into a global conflict; unfortunately, the exact ‘opposite has occurred and it has dragged world powers into alocal conflict and hence, turned the local conflict into a one of global magnitude. Consequently, Syria becomes Ow as “he Untea States of ames ew nmitary ghee te curs poe om Factors determining a country’ global inuence © BE vnwtea kingdom Most Powerful Countries in the World 22 ron donna conan Tos te words lrg county by lndnass Te ecrome “Germanys be Dages ppuaon of a EU cute, “Sues ah ses wore Gran otis 2) ‘Tendo ete £ sd te race opens one of the countries where the third global war could possibly break out. Finally, both India and Pakistan also have the potential to become initiators of third world war. Both are nuclear powers nurturing intense antipathy against each other. Both have fought four wars over Kashmir that is classified ‘as a nuclear flashpoint; meaning thereby that it has the potential to stimulate nuclear war between the two countries. Thus, nuclear war in any part of the world, for sure, would bring disastrous consequences not only for the region where it takes place but also for the whole world. The writer is a lawyer by profession, based in Quetta, Balochistan. fea ‘ood de gab cgh sc polteneonmcro tre “soa Aries ire a eat cute part te Mae ) Oe eee www.jworldtimes.com August 2019NE Global Peace Security ‘Today's Political World at Glance Global politics is over- whelmingly becoming robotic when question of safeguard of the mankind comes up. Global political leaders are fast becoming actors on stage - issuing abstract statements of outrage and expressing phony sense of grief when thousands and millions of human lives are bombarded by the weapons they manufacture and sell to crush the ‘human soul, and to support the war economies. ‘The United Nations, UN Secretariat and UN Security Council, all are just debating clubs engaged in time-killing exercises to deceive the mankind, and to betray the ideals of the UN Charter to “safeguard the humanity from the scourge of wars.” Many top UN officials are paid ‘employees with no sense of accountability to the global community. The reality of man-made catastrophic conflicts enhanced by national interests and war-led economies are ingrained in the war racketeering plans across the globe. The Knowledge-based and informed mankind of the twenty-first century is the net victim of the global political monsters. Millions of human beings are forcibly displaced, evicted by plans and charcoaled by forbidden chemical weapons across the Middle East, yet most global leaders do nothing to prevent the catastrophes except issuing statements of fake ‘outrage’ reaction as if others were inhuman casualties. We are witnessing abnormal Political culture of human bloodbath as being normal. The global community, currently a divided and dispersed 24 SSS RMU CeCe re Wi) Or Mahboob A. Khawaja mankind, is unable to challenge the war Tacketeers and global hangmen who claim to be political leaders. They are egoistic professionals with big mouths without wisdom and full of self- engineered, false democratic clichés, contradictions, distortions and misrep- Tesentation of the rights of common citizens in modern democracies. These are frightening trends for the present as well as the future generations to survive. Most of the economically Influential actors occupy the political platforms — either through backdoor conspiracies or entrenched political intrigues. They profess to be intelligent and outspoken for the rights of the People but, in reality, they are offen- sive to truth and listening to voices of Teason and honesty. How do we call for a balancing act in a world terribly imbalanced by nationalism, political and economic ideologies of supremacy and shallow imagina- tions and practices of human equality, human rights, peace and harmony amongst all the diverse segments of the living humanity? We cannot abandon the search for a better and more ational world of systematic mechanism to protect peace and security of the mankind on this One Planet. We the People, We the Humanity and conscientious thinkers and scholars must wake up to the immense sophisticated and technologically advanced challenges to disconnect us from the Nature of Things and to dehuman- izeus by global scenarios of ethnicities, nationalism, state borders and cultural superiorities and ruling class distinctions. William Godwin (Enquiry Concerning www.jworidtimes.com August 2019. INTERNATIONAL Political Justice and Its Influence on Modern Moral and Happiness, 1793), said itright: “Men of genius must rise up....to analyse the machine of society to demonstrate how the parts are connected together. 4nd point out the defects and remedy. It is thus only that important reforms can be produced...He who is a friend to general happiness will neglect no chance of producing in his pupil or his child, one of the long-looked for saviours of the human race." Do We the People Realize to be One Humanity on One Earth? We are One Humanity on One Planet and we have aright to be here in peace and harmony, not in conflicts, not to be collaborators to kill the mankind and in destruction of the ‘human environment and habitats. This will be contrary to ‘our nature, and even inhuman, if we cannot come to terms for a peaceful coexistence, identity and responsibility being the chief guardians of the living planet in a living universe. We the humanity live on a balanced planet - the Earth located at a measured distance from the Sun, the Moon and other stars. God created the universe and blessed it with all functionalities and provisions for life sustaining factors since millions and billions of years. Do ‘you realize if there were no water, no oxygen or hydrogen and other gases or sunlight to support all the living creations, what would have been the shape and form of life on Earth? Could we the humankind count the blessings of the Almighty to maintain life for millions and billions of years on this planet? All things exist in a mathematical order, whether we recognize it or deny it. So strange, we know all about other material things and scientific-technological developments but we are ignorant of, and arrogant to learning about our own origin and existence on a living planet. ‘We are born from mother’s womb - one and the same all over the globe - and are (One Humanity. Yet, we dare to challenge each other with nationalism and ethnic superiorities and indulge in wars and deaths and destruction of our own beings. Are we the human beings intelligent enough to know about our own existence and purpose of life? How could we imagine peace and harmony amongst ourselves when we bomb and destroy each other with weapons of destruction www.jworldtimes.com August 2019 as if we were not the humankind but some kind of animals without any sense of rational thinking? We the People of Conscience can correct the political fallacies only if we are united and blended together with reason and accountability to be the saviour of our own world, We must awaken the minds and souls of the 21" century humanity to synthesize the vitality of peace and human security in a world of time and opportunities for political justice, equal rights and participation to be part of the change phenomenon for a better and more promis- ing world of tomorrow. The voices of reason will echo across the globe if we together are committed and united for this idea and human ideals. We strongly believe that knowledge-based wisdom, plans and actions will lead to benevolence and global harmony, peace and justice and will nullify the malignity and political tyranny from the 21"-century highly challenging and competitive world. When we, the people articulate cooperation and under standing in societal diversity, it will replace the impulse and urge for competition and unjust indulgence into destroying fellow human beings. Peace are Offensive Strangely enough, warmongers hire war propagandists to classify wars as “noble”, “good,” necessity of the ruling nobility and to protect the flag, borders and national interests. George Bush claimed being “Man of God” who started the day with the Bible, to orchestrate the bogus war on terrorism. These are cynical notions implied to enforce the monstrous viewpoints of the few warlords in every age. Professor Camillo "Mac" Bica, School of Visual Arts, New York City and an activist of Peace and Justice (“Atrocity and War"), offers a penetrating insight on the inequality criterion and falsification of information and facts of human life. Having been indoctrinated by the propaganda of those whose militarism and war agenda requires acceptance of the mythology of the "good war" and the “noble warrior,” the uninitiated and unaffected most civilians and many non- warrior members of the military fail to realize this truth that all war is barbs rrism in which cruelty and brutal atrocity is the norm rather than the exception. During World War I, for example, often cited and celebrated as the “good war,” over 50 million civilians were murdered by both Axis and Allied Nations. The American servicemen in the WikiLeaks video who so nonchalantly a)TEEN . "engaged the target” slaugh- tering some 12 human beings are no different from the pilots and bombardiers from the "greatest generation” who with equal nonchalance, incinerated millions of civilians during the terror bombings of Hamburg, Dresden, Tokyo, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, etc. Despite the moral depravity of their actions, these individuals were not born killers. Rather they were created to do our bidding, first conscripted or lured into the military with promises of employment, a college education, or US citizenship, then subjected to sophisticated indoctrination techniques of value manipu- lation, moral desensitization, and psychological condi- tioning, aimed at destroying/overriding their humanity, their moral aversion to killing, reinforced by the violence and horrors of the battlefield environment. Blame Games of Distortion and Prejudice against the Trygve Lie wanna) 6. thant (etyanman raerig71 Dag Hammarskjold (Sweden) 1853-1961 Informed Humanity To be united in global political diversity, we, the people ‘must exercise forbearance, and follow canons of rational- ity, and should strive for blended unity of mankind — the core of human understanding and harmony. Leaders who want to lead must have rational thinking and followers to claim leadership effectiveness. Most contemporary leaders are devoid of reason as the focal point of policy formulation and decision-making in global human relationships. Often they use blame game and popularity numbers to score fictitious rating in public eyes. Most leaders are infected with this syndrome and egoistic sickness to remain influential and powerful. ‘Toprotect the mankind from further dehumanization and annihilation, people of new ideas (Idea Men) are needed to take initiatives for political change - indeed a navigational change at this critical moment: a new UN with people's leadership, new global political systems of governance planned and developed by the people of knowledge and integrity and rejecting Hobbesian “wars of all against all;* and producing a rational rebuttal to the war of insanity, torture, political tyranny, inept global leadership and offer a balanced new vision of a world enriched with learning knowledge of rational policymaking and decision-making, human equality, fairness, protection of life and its natural support systems, and the universe and equal justice for all the living beings on this planet. The leaders have not learned from the imposed deaths and destruction of the two World Wars. The third World Waris UN Secretary-General - Over the years ‘Antonio Guterres ena Ban Ki Moon (South Korea) 2007-2016, Javier Pere ‘de Cuelar {Peru 1982-1991 Kofi annan (Ghara} 1997-2006 Kurt Waldheim (Austra). 1972-1981 Boutros Boutros-chali {Boe already in progress in Syria, Palestine, Iraq, Yemen and Libya, and it will soon engulf many self-made tribal Arab kings, princes and authoritarian dictators. Surely, we the people could create a better and more sustainable world of today and tomorrow. A natural sense of piety and political wickedness cannot co-exist in one human character as most of the world leaders pretend to be. We must think and act outside the global box of political wickedness and cult of political allegiance to the few and sickening political minds of egoistic leadership. ‘Time and history are not going to wait for the few insane outrage, phony statements on human deaths and destruction unless we take this challenge in its time and ‘opportunity to make things happen for change and for the best of all mankind. The Divine Revelation (Al-Qur'an) states clearly: “Intelligent people always readily accept advice.” American historian Harry Elmer Barnes ("Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace: A Critical Examination of the Foreign Policy of Franklin Delano Roosevelt and It's Aftermath”), offered this stern warning to American politicians if the US-led wars continue leading to man’s annihilation from this planet: “If trends continue as they have during the last fifteen ‘years, we shall soon reach this point of no return, and can only anticipate interminable wars, disguised as noble gestures for peace. Such an era could only culminate in a third world war which might well, as Arnold J. Toynbee has suggested, leave only the pygmies in remote jungles, or even the apes and ants, to carry on ‘the cultural traditions’ of mankind.” Dr Mahboob A. Khawaja is teh author of several publications including the latest: Global Peace, Security and Conflict Resolution: Approaches to Understand the Current Issues and Future-Making. ‘www.jworidtimes.com August 2019Britain’s next - > + Prime Since 1987 2001-08, 2015-todate 2008-16 =. Eurosceptic journalist Conservativemember Mayor of Minister and commentator of parliament London —— + 2016 2015-16 Ditches bidtobecome —_Key figure Prime Minister after inthe Vote chief ally Michael Leave (Brexit) Gove withdraws ‘campaign support =~ > 2019 2016-2018 Britain’s next Theresa May's Prime Minister foreign minister after winning Conservative Party vote 2019 CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP PLEDGES ® Leave the EU on Oct31, ® Withold the £39-billion "Cut taxes for Britain’s _® Focus on points-based with or without a deal EU divorce bill as a richest 3 million people immigration system negotiating tactic No-deal Brexit: possible chaos , b Mepicines AiR TRAFFIC a 27.6 million ramees UK-EU passengers imports come per year use from the EU Heathrow Airport Foop IRISH BORDER 70% = agri-foods 30,000 Belfast come from the EU people * crass dally: Eee, UK ‘SUPPLY CHAINS » 80% IRELAND ‘car parts come from LONDON the EU LJ EXPATS’ RIGHTS Dover® , for 4.5 million cua UK and EU citizen Ports Healthcare, driving che licences, residency ( rights, etc oad freight FRANCE through UK ports is with the EUMT rs ae uy ROADW (aes In September 2013, during a state visit to Kazakhstan, President Xi Jinping announced the creation of an ‘economic bet along the Silk Road’, which would Yorge closer economic ties, deepen cooperation and expand development space in the Eurasian region’. A month later, this was followed by a proposal in an address to Indonesia's People’s Consultative Assembly fora "Maritime Silk Road of the 2st Century that would ‘bring tangible benefits to neighbours along the route, and be a new driving force forthe prosperity of the entire East ‘Asian region’. These two proposals soon gave way to the establishment of the ‘Silk Road Economic Belt and 2ist- Century Maritime Silk Road’, or "The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as it is more commonly referred to. Since its proposal, the Initiative has grown in scope and ambition, moving beyond the more rigid definition ofa collection of geographical belts ‘and roads, and is evolving into the guiding principle behind China's foreign policy as a whole. it can be seen as an international strategy that cals for collaborative ties between ‘governments, business and non-governmental organisations ‘around the world in areas such as transportation, trade, logistics, culture, science andeducation, 28 Aftab Abbasi he Belt and Road Initiative (BRD, a massive Chinese initiative for cooperation and for economic and technological integration among the nations of Asia, defies simple categorization by dint of its scale. It's expected to involve trillions of dollars of investment over the next decade. The “road” part, also known as the “Maritime Silk Road,” is an effort to modernize ports and logistic routes from China, through Southeast Asia and across to the Middle East and North Africa, and upgrade infrastructure and facilities at the ports. The road hearkens back to a time when China engaged in a deep cultural exchange with the rest of the world by sea. The “belt” meanwhile, is an initiative to finance, design, build and operate transportation corridors and new infrastructure overland, thereby drawing together China, the nations of Central Asia, Russia, the Middle East and Europe. It is designed as a renaissance of the fabled Silk Road that thrived at the time of the Tang Dynasty. ‘The Belt and Road Initiative has grown by leaps and bounds at the same time that the America’s geopolitical vision has become increasingly isolationist, paranoid and confronta- tional. Currently, 20 African nations have joined BRI, and it has even established a beachhead in Europe with investments in Greece and agreements with Italy. BRI has been interpreted as a strategic effort by China to avoid being cut off from shipping routes by the United States and its allies in Northeast Asia in the case of a military confrontation. Others have suggested that BRI is a plot to catch developing nations in a debt trap (in the manner that Europeans and Americans have done for decades). According to a third interpretation, this expansion of trade and transportation is simply a means to relieve the pressures of overproduction within China itself. More to the point, however, are concerns that such development, especially highways and fossil-fuel power plants, will have a negative impact on the environment and, on the Earth’s climate. Moreover, Nature magazine recently launched a series of articles on the impact of Chinese-supported initiatives for international scientific cooperation as part of BRI, focusing on Pakistan and Sri Lanka, Europe, South America and Africa. Although this new approach to global collaboration in science is stil taking shape, it is not focused on the familiar groups of elite research institutes in the West and it isless concerned with the profits to be gained from private sector investments. The Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) has taken the lead in this effort, recently teaming up with the World Academy of Sciences in Trieste, Italy, to start a regular research programme to bring 200 experts from nations involved in the BRI to study in China. Science research related to water quality, transportation ‘and energy has tremendous appeal for poorer nations, but strikingly, a substantial part of the funding covers pure www.jworldtimes.com August 2019‘ypmss ‘souaps ayseq toss AeME UDG Sey sarEIS parUy ax UT TY TeruAUTEpUNy azoW BH Ng, “wap Suruopuede saxo pue Saris partun aL ‘snoay atj WH pure suTeUMow ay. Wt aBuUEGD aqeuyS Supueisipun pur ‘sear oueM SuySeueUT ‘seare uequn uj ywowdojasap ayqeurersns SufBemo>ua ‘feypray jemynd SuNParoad ‘amoas amymouse Super ‘sayddns soem Sueur “yS1L aaysesip Jo uoeBAnUT ‘auEYD a1eUI|D Or ‘uoneidepe -are 19aford aanezoqelios sry 40} paynuapr sofuayrey> 14st au. Buuoruou jewouuosAue 7 Jo} wed pareys v jo ued ‘se ueaspjaqz pue uersTUaUON, fuersiyfey ‘weiszABs6y, ay stoned on arqetreae sauares ayn woxy erep at aAeUL TI um “Apoarssaxdust azou u9Ag “puerretLE pue sory ‘uasprea ayeup sind HunyD Tea qwapIssd SVD. AuEMINY Jo amIny pareYs, ayy soy ,tped aaneaouty pure uaad8, © pue ,rtwidojaxap Tepos pue sMuOUOI a|qeutEIsNs, st OSNW JO asodind pareis ay, “Ypreasas ayTUADS EIS fire] JeuOMeUIAIUT 9981910 01 (OSNY) ‘Suonezmme8i9 asus euoneuI=uy Jo aaueiity aya Ystigease oy pasayje suonminsuy ypreasar Teuoneuraiuy pue jeuoned OF “810Z ‘F FequBAON UO ‘Suey area Jo edu ay Surpueisrepun 01 suoreosi{dde 19911p WIM VERN FoNUONT OL TIE joured se dn as uaaq sey 1oyeM, aoj Asoresoqey [zesg-LUTYD e ‘oydurexa 104 “yorwasas Sy Ur UIT queyodun ue st aBureyD arcu 985 ‘uy aftueyp areuno Jo Apmis axp 103 jedan, uy Aqsraaqay, weanyquy, yim owruTexoud © poumels pure ‘ueIstpezeN PUe [PLIST “eHORUOH, {MIM sioofoud uonBoYTUAsAp-nuE paxpuney ‘weIsPAEGZ Jo UMUEGOH TeUONEN ay WM suoneeA pansind sey S¥D ‘Th2 B Jo SBuDfIOM ay BuLAIasq0 01 yrvosdde ‘matte aaMaASUT [eoTPaWY SaYBNH PAeMOH ayy 1 SxOyDTEASAr uum sompaor padopaap sey soIsKydorg Jo amansuy 8,S¥ ‘ASojouypar-oueu se yons spjay aynUaPIs paoueape ‘uJ s{lom uo HoneULIOyUT Jo aoznos sofew e aUtoIaq sey saptianss Jo Awapeay asaureD axp Jo UNaTINg ax, "eua!s lOnpue zIuqIe7 Se YON SHOU tueedoang Aq uonerseudde poured ‘euy ul Wog Sem yoIUm ‘wis}UEION}UOD "BIsy ISEOYINOS Uy peyouUS Sem PUP CUYD UI PawlOsso!g ‘expuju pereuyBu0 wsiyppng ‘ajdwexe 04 ‘seep| nou pauunds moy-mouy pure spood jo eBuey2xe o4y Khueyodus a0} ‘POM au 40 sHeG Jaujo 0} peaids Bujpoaag uOM's pue SuORUBAU! yeai6 JN9} S,eUTYD BILUM ‘eUIYD O} Aem sJous Puno} OuIDIPeWH Pu JepUa|eD ‘KuIoUOHSE ‘qezy pue wets} ‘ws!yppng ‘seynou asoup yBnouy, “jam Se @BpeyMour Jo Moy pe}sooq Kou) ‘fIUO oped} 40} OU d40M Sa}NO4 HIIS JUB}OUE OH NOLWNUALNrequires steady government The denial of climate change has been the core example of that contempt for the scientific method, Recently, Gale A Buchanan and Catherine E. Woteki, former chief scientists at the Agricultural Department, coauthored an op-ed in The Washington Post lamenting the brutal manner in which the administration has eliminated science from that agency. In addition to drastic reductions i n budgets, two of the department's major research institutes were suddenly relocated from the DC area to remote locations far from Washington DC on extremely short notice, causing many experts to quit in what they describe as an intentional move. Congress is making it increasingly difficult for US scientists to engage in international collaborations, with Senator Chuck Grassley (RHA) demanding extreme scrutiny of foreign scientists granted funding by the National Institute of Health. And the NIH has already had its funding reduced by $5 billion. The National Science Foundation had its budget cut by 12 percent to $7.1 billion, and the Environmental Protection Agency by 31 percent to $8.8 billion. NASA funding to work on a large : = tration has been at war with v= science since it took office, Nay RE he Education is being used to cary out the BR's goal to promote ‘people- to-people'bonds. |n2017, the MoE published an’Education Acton Pla’ tha set out three visions to ‘promote people-to-people tes, ‘cultivate supporting talent” ‘and'achieve common development. Vision 1 of Promoting people-to-people ties’ has been caried out through: ‘© Boosting studentexchanges ‘© Signing agreements on the mutual recognition of academic qualifications «Increasing language and cultural education, particularly through Confucius Institutes Vision 2of Cultivating supporting talent has been carried out through: 30 Education and BRI: Key Takeaways, will be cut by only 2 percent, but since Trump's focus is on returning astronauts to the moon, something that will be likely outsourced, the funding for actual science will be slashed, especially in astrophysics. Ultimately the issue for the United States will not be about emotional responses to what China says or does, but rather in its ability to stay on the frontiers of science, the wellspring of future technological development. The federal government is incapable of setting the pace during the dark ages of Trump. It is the decline of scientific thinking, rather than any particular technology, that has made the Trump administration's Policies possible. The citizens of the United States need to recognize the critical importance of science for the future of humanity and not be too proud to leam something from China, «International education «© Carrying out vocational training, particularly through the medium of LLuban Workshops ‘© The promotion of entrepreneurship education through forums, competitions and entrepreneurship networks Vision 3 of ‘Achieving common development’ has been carried out through: + Capacity bulding through the construction of schools andthe training oflocal staff ‘¢ The promotion of girs and women's education and entrepreneurship ‘© The promotion of research collaboration through alliances, partnerships, esearch centres and think tanks www.jworldtimes.com August 2019Now, even bleaker than the original 1984 novel, Oceania has hostilities simultaneously with both Eurasia ‘and Eastasia. Simply put, the US is still the dominant power in a world of increasing multipolarity. However, the increasing entente between Russia and China has caught the US foreign policy ‘establishment flat-footed. Currently, Russia, China and the United States are the three ‘countries atthe heart of the global great power competition. Sino- Russian cooperation in numerous arenas challenges the United States but, at the same time, raises the question: just how far an alignment between Moscow and Bejing can go? The answer will be shaped by China's own ascension and the dynamic interplay between Russia and the United States to ‘counter China's rise, NTERNATIONI or the first time in decades, itis possible to imagine the United States fighting, and possibly losing, a large scale great power competition. For generations of Americans accustomed to US military superiority and its ability to deter major wars, the idea of armed conflict between great powers may seem highly improbable. The idea that the United States might lose such a war would seem absolutely preposterous. Nevertheless, the possibility of war and US defeat is real and growing. The US trade war with China and Washington's prolonged standoff with Russia are increasingly driving Moscow and Beijing toward each other. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently was in Russia to attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum where he met with his Russian www.jworldtimes.com August 2019 A deep dive for new great power competition “Oceania was at war with Eastasia: Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.” — George Orwell (1984) Shafqat Javed counterpart Viadimir Putin. China and Russia have signed economic deals that span everything from 5G networks to hydropower plant construction to establishing a joint research and technology innovation fund. The deals come in the wake of Moscow's recently indicated desire to collaborate with China in the Arctic’s Northern Sea Route as part of Beijing's Maritime Silk Road initiative, while the massive power of Siberia pipeline is completing the final phase of construction and is set to begin pumping ever-larger volumes of Russian natural gas to China by the endof this year. These developments are simply the latest ina broader trend of Russia and China strengthening political, economic and security ties. Such developments raise the question as to how deep an alignment between Russia and China is and how far can it 30 ——=@gxé tt Te go, and to what extent their relationship is forming a competition with the United States. To begin to answer this question, it is important to first frame it in the appropriate strategic context, and then to ook at how ties between Russia, China and the United States have evolved within this context. The Postwar Evolution of ‘Strategic Triangle’ ‘The end of World War II marked the emergence of the United States and the Soviet Union as the two primary global powers, as well as the founding of the People’s Republic of China (1949). This development ushered in an inherent “strategic triangle” relationship among the three countries, meaning that relations between any two of these powers would necessarily shape and be shaped by the strategic interests of the third power. These strategic interests include neutralizing and dominating their respective peripheries while projecting outward and pushing their own respective vision of global order, producing inherent contradictions and driving the so- called great power competition between them. In the initial years of the postwar cera, China was the weakest of the three powers in economic and military terms. Nevertheless, under Chairman Mao, China aptly used its size and political and diplomatic heft to maintain independence and balance between the United States and the Soviet Union. Initially, Beijing aligned with the Soviet Union, partly because of their shared communist ideology but just as importantly because of their shared interest in rivaling the power and influence of the United States. However, this alignment almost immediately became strained over issues such as the Korean War, border disputes and the succession from Joseph Stalin to Nikita Khrushchev, with the latter pursuing policies like “peaceful coexistence” with the US that Mao deemed as detrimental to China’s interests. ‘These differences ultimately led to the Sino-Soviet split which, in turn, paved the way for a strategic rapproche- ‘ment between US and China beginning in the early 1970s, as both countries shared an interest in limiting the power and influence of the Soviet Union. But this rapprochement proved to have its limits once Soviet power was effectively constrained and began weakening by the 1980s. ‘This strategic triangle entered a new phase after the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union (now Russia) was 32 marginalized as a global player. The US became the only global superpower, while China embarked on a journey to achieve economic and geopolitical ascension. Though Russia experienced internal turmoil and its global power projection weakened substantially, it was never fully removed as a regional power, as demonstrated by the emergence of the Commonwealth of Independent States and its continued engagement in former Soviet politics and security affairs. These developments recalibrated the power dynamics among the three countries, with the US expanding its power projection globally, while China and Russia began to improve bilateral relations as the former ascended and the latter began to recover after the chaotic 1990s. China's rise as a global power has put it in greater competition with the US over a wide range of issues, from trade disputes to the South China Sea to the Belt and Road Initiative Meanwhile, Russia's regional resurgence in the mid- to late 2000s - thanks to high global energy prices and a domestic political consolidation by Viadimir Putin - put it in greater contention with the US and the West, culminating in the 2008 Russia-Georgia War and the 2014 Euromaidan uprising in Ukraine, and leading to the standoff between Moscow and the West currently in play. The Limits of Russia-China Alignment At this point, the United States remains the strongest global power, but one whose position — whether political, economic or military — is increasingly challenged by China and Russia. US tensions with China and its standoff with Russia have pushed Moscow and Beijing closer together to recalibrate the strategic triangle, Russia and China have, in recent years, expanded economic ties and political coordination, and their level of military cooperationis at the highest level since the end of the Cold War. However, this rising cooperation between Russia and China has both challenges and limitations. While economic ties between the two countries have indeed grown significantly in relative terms, they are still quite limited in absolute terms. And despite the recent US-China trade dispute, overall bilateral trade ($737 billion in 2018) is still much higher than overall Russia-China trade ($108 billion). However, it is important to consider that the public view of China within Russia is positive, especially compared to ‘www jworldtimes.com August 2019that of the United States: A survey conducted at the end of 2018 found that 75 percent of those polled viewed China in a positive light, while 54 percent viewed the US negatively. However, when it comes to the specificissue of China's rise as a power, a different picture emerges. Nearly 60 percent of Russians living in Eastern Siberia polled in another survey considered China's ascent as a threat to Russia's interests, and more than half opposed a visa-free regime with China, This dichotomy is important when considering the general level of cooperative relations between Russia and China and ‘a deeper sense of concern and mistrust that lurks beneath the surface. China doesn't challenge Russia's political model in the manner that the West does in terms of promoting democracy and human rights, but China does challenge Russia's survival in a way the West does not. Such impressions are anecdotal, of course; nevertheless, these kinds of conspiratorial perceptions among educated Russians in the private and education sectors show that there are deep concerns about China's rise at the social level, and signal the potential pushback that strengthening ties between Russia and China could face at the political level Looking Ahead So, what does all this spell for Russia~China relations down the line? Relations between Moscow and Beijing have been on an upward trajectory in recent years, and Russia and China have until now been careful to downplay their differences while emphasizing the shared opportu- nities of their cooperation. However, from the standpoint of the strategic triangle, it can be deduced that as China continues to grow as an economic and military power, tensions will likely increase between Russia and China and undermine the trajectory of cooperation that the two countries are currently on. Thus, while increased Chinese economic involvement in areas such as the Arctic, Eastern Siberia and Central Asia can produce economic benefits for Russia for now, at a certain point this involvement can pose amore direct strategic threat to Moscow, whether in the form of increasing Chinese control over key infrastructure and shipping lanes, having greater access to Russia's remote regions or overwhelming Russia from an economic and demographic standpoint. China has been careful to downplay any notion that its rise presents a threat to Russia, and it ‘was often emphasized that Beijing wants peaceful coexistence with its www.jworldtimes.com August 2019 Te neighbours. However, as Henry Kissinger writes: “Strategists rely on the intentions of the presumed adversary only to a limited extent. For intentions are subject to change. And the essence of sovereignty is the right to make decisions not subject to another authority A certain amount of threat based on capabilities is therefore inseparable from the relations of sovereign states.” This means that China, like other powers, must be Judged by its capabilities rather than its current intentions when it comes to projecting power. ‘Such capabilities have clearly served as a concern for the United States, but they may be even more worrisome for Russia — which has a tenth of the population of China (147 million people vs. 1.4 billion) and an economy that is a tenth of its size ($1.6 trillion vs. $12.2 trillion) while sharing a long and direct border with China. This is where Russian fears over Chinese expansionism come from. While the two countries have been able to manage and ‘mitigate tensions over such matters, for now at least, the ‘underlying issues are likely to grow more contentious. China seems likely to increase its economic, political and (potentially) security involvement in areas that matter to Russia — with signs of this already taking place in the border areas near Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Because of this, there may be room down the line for Russia and the United States to find common ground on selective issues, which in turn could pave the way for the United States and Russia to pursue a rapprochement of their own to curb China's power. But like the US-China outreach in the 1970s, such an effort would be limited even as their deeper competition endures. Thus, the growing alignment between Russia and China is part of a fluid global power competition dynamic, with further shifts in the strategic triangle inevitably to come in the years ahead) The writer is a member of staff. 33rr, , 4 ‘Charter of Economy’ or ‘Charter of Democracy?; What Pakistan nels at present Pakistan is brimful of numerous deficiencies and lacunas nowadays, Political uncertainty, stagnant economy, abject poverty, sorry state of education, inflation and unemployment, all have been written in the fate of Pakistan. There are numerous reasons for this state of affairs, e.g, military interventions, lack of consensus among political parties, autocratic mindset, absoluteness and majoritarian behaviour of the ruling party and incompetency of politicians, A retrospective look at the present state of. Pakistan suggests that the country’s political, economic and even social sector is on a * decline due to lack of pragmatic and result- oriented policies. However, the current government is trying its best to cope with the precarious economic and political conditions. In this regard, to brush up the economy, the idea of doing a Charter of Economy has been floated in the National Assembly. It, indeed, is a g00d idea to have charter of economy but actually what the country more pressingly needs than this is another charter of democracy. Itis a known fact that politics and economy are intermin- gled in a way that if one is good the other gets better, and vice versa. Political stability plays a vital role in the overall 34 Bashir Sagar development of a country. As they say, “Politics, not ‘economy, is the key to success,” we must bear in mind that in order to make Pakistani politics mature and people- oriented, there is a crying need of a hale and hearty democracy. To strengthen democracy and democratic culture, a charter of democracy seems tobe sine qua non. However, itis pertinent to mention here that Pakistan has already experienced one charter of democracy - the one signed by Mian Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan Muslim League and Ms Benazir Bhutto of Pakistan Peoples Party on May 14, 2006 inLondon. The document forged a sort of alliance between two major political parties of Pakistan, outlined steps to end the military interventions and to restore a civilian, democraticrule. However, this charter was signed only by two major political parties; they did not take other political parties into confidence which is why it soon hit a snag. To arrest the current political decline and the continued economic drawdown, the current government especially Prime Minister Imran Khan should take all political parties on board and sign anew charter of democracy. Majoritarian, and absolute behaivour of the government should be abandoned for the sake of country's development and Progress; otherwise, devastating results await us.B) The writer can be reached at bashir.sagar741@gmail.com www.jworidtimes.com August 2019Heatwave smashes European records For the second time in a month, a high pressure system is drawing scorching air from the Sahara desert, breaking temperature records Latest heatwave caused by dome of high pressure known as Omega Block Peccnis ranistersd because shape resembles Greek let Peon Ps ered See eure $$ Cana ec << BEX ESR i AMA ed peer eres Pea foc) Toe tcs Dac Pee ener) since records began innorthern France [of 46°C registeredCCUM Implementing the Police Reforms Committee t is an acknowledged fact that the justice sector of Pakistan is not in an ideal condition. Much is required to ameliorate this situation, In this regard, besides initiating expeditious justice projects in the form of model criminal courts, model civil appellate courts and model magistrate courts, the Chief Justice of Paki- stan, Mr Justice Asif Saeed Khan Khosa, is overseeing implementation of the Police Reforms Committee Report 2019 (hereinafter the Report) The Report was prepared by retired police officers after they were mandated to do so by the former Chief Justice of Pakistan, Mian Saqib Nisar, through a notification that institutionalized the effort into the work of a statutory body, the Law and Justice Commis: sion of Pakistan (LJCP). In line with its Terms of Reference (ToRs), the Report addressed 36 Report-2019 Kamran Adil three core areas: (a) constitutionality of police laws and recommending a draft model police law, (b) professional issues that affect working of police, and (c) the cross cutting legal issues that relate to police. With concrete recommendations, the Report was launched on 14th January 2019. The incumbent CJP, after assuming the office, started personally supervising the implementation of the Report by constituting a Steering Committee comprising retired and serving police officers. Bringing the retired police officers and the serving Inspectors General of Police (0GPs) of the four provinces and three federal territories, i. Islamabad Capital Territory (CT), Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) was an administrative innovation. The CJP started holding meetings every month and quietly saw to it that the recommendations are imple- www.jworldtimes.com August 2019PNET mented. He started with professional issues of policing as these affect the public at large. He, very wisely, did not touch the recommendations about legislation that fall in the domain of the legislature. In the arena of professional issues, the first that was implemented was an effective and efficient system of police complaints. ‘Accordingly, all IGPs appointed senior police officers of as Superintendent of Police (SP) Complaints in all districts. [As there were no sanctioned posts for the assignments, the IGPs re-designated existing posts as SP/Complaints. The ‘SPs Complaints were required to listen to complaints of public at large against police. The concept worked well, and later, it was decided to task the SPs Complaints of all districts to deal with applications under sections 22-A and 22-B of the Code of Criminal Procedure (CrPC). These applications under section 22-A and 22-B were of quasi-judicial nature and were consuming much valuable time of judiciary. The experi- ment worked well and the impact was tangible as SP Complaints not only promptly got the First Information Reports (FIRs) registered, but in many cases, held police officials accountable for delay in registration. Simulta~ neously, the SP Complaints initiated proceedings under section 182 of Pakistan Penal Code (PPC) against false and frivolous applicants. The balance between free and fair registration of FIRs is very well struck through this new administrative arrangement, which is still not institution alized and will have to be fully owned by both the federal and provincial governments to sustain. ‘The second area that got attention of the Committee is the quality of investigation. As the legal framework of policing is detection-based, the investigations become very important. The Committee encouraged all the IGPs to move towards functional specialization. The IGPs established the homicide and anti-car lifting units as a www.jworidtimes.com August 2019 first step toward functional specialization. In addition, with a string of judgments, the Supreme Court required that the police must base its investigations on scientific evidence, and not on manufactured and concocted ‘evidence. Ina recent judgment related to a false testimony by a police constable Khizar Hayat in a criminal case, the Supreme Court held that the principle of falsw in uno, falsu in omnibus (false in one, false in all) as an integral part of Jurisprudence in criminal matters in Pakistan. Changing the poorly- maintained case diaries that record and log all the effort of investigation officers {s also on the agenda of the Committee with respect to improving the quality of investigation. The street bureaucrat, i the Investigation Officer (10), exercises unbridled discretion, if his investigative decisions are not supervised effectively through timely and proper checking of his case diaries. The Committee tried to curtail this unbridled discretion of IOs by introduc ing sequenced and officially-endorsed case diariesas part of police working. The third area of interest for the Committee is the joint training of police, prosecution, judges and prison staff. ‘The joint training, it is believed, will reduce the turf and blame game, and will infuse the team model in which all the stakeholders would work for a shared objective instead of working at cross-purpose. The work of the Committee is ongoing and it is likely to work now on subjects like urban policing, problems faced by the anti- terrorism courts and the synchronization of forensics and prosecution departments with police. ‘The foregoing details show that the incumbent Chief Justice of Pakistan has, quietly and without much histrionics, provided the much-needed leadership to the Justice sector. His efforts must sustain, but the bureau- cratic model of civil service that has no premium for specialization may not like to subscribe to the implemen- tation model introduced by the judiciary. With Pakistan's fragility increasing, itis high time the government and civil society supported the judiciary in its endeavours. ° ‘This model should be extended to other components of the criminal and civil justice so as to alleviate the suffer~ ings of the citizens. Timely action by the government will minimize the justice gap in Pakistan, which is globally increasing as documented by the Report on Measuring Justice Gap issued by the World Justice Project. BI The author is an independent researcher who has done his BCL from the University of Oxford. Email: kamranadilpsp@gmail.com 37CIE hallenges are not static, and it is not as if new challenges do not emerge if old ones are appropriately met. Meeting challenges is a continuous, unending process. Even the most developed countries of the world face multiple challenges, although on surface everything appears calm and normal. However, they have zero ot minimum backlog of unsolved challenges in contrast with ‘lagging behind’ countries that have been stuckin ‘snakes and ladders’ development for decades. Pakistan has had its fair share of challenges. It is a ‘common trend to argue that the country has had to face more challenges than most nations because of the way it ‘came into being - carved out of Indian subcontinent, comprising mostly underdeveloped regions and deprived of numerous assets it was entitled to - but there is no dearth of counter arguments to this; rather trendy strand of arguments, which to an internal-locus-of-control- based assessment appears more like a pretext to cover country’s inability to cope with challenges in a befitting ‘manner. Chinais a strong and the most-cited example of a country that inherited a worse background. Japan and Europe also rose from ashes and ruins of World War IL Countries in the Far East, too, had humble beginnings, having hardly any natural resources to build on. M.H. Rehman Governance has been the biggest challenge Pakistan has faced and continues to face. It is rather an overarching challenge that extends to, causes or contributes to most other challenges, if not all. Be it economic and financial crises the country finds itself hemmed in after every few years or social and societal predicaments that appear Incurable; poor governance is the ultimate reason behind them all. Political instability can be, and usually is, billed as the cause of poor governance but in reality this argument is like putting the cart before the horse. It is the poor gover- nance that leads to trust deficit and credibility loss against regimes, or institutions for that matter, and the outcome is political instability. Even military regimes, when they start losing grip over governance, follow the suit. Governance challenges facing Pakistan have become so grave that on assuming the office of the Prime Minister of Pakistan after the July 2018 general election, Mr Imran Khan was said to have assumed the most challenging office in the world. The governance riddle has many facets, such as extremely tricky parliamentary system and situation where most energies of a regime get exhausted on managing coalitions in an attempt to maintain required majority rather than doing farsighted legislation to provide a governance structure free of , objective oversight to keep the executive in METH rel enna MY ELASETH Challenges have been the companion of human being for aeons. All societies and states have had to face Challenges and it is the very response to them that sets states on course of development or deterioration, progress and prosperity or poverty. It is, in short, all about converting challenges into opportunities, weaknesses into strengths and problems into solutions. 38 www jworldtimes.com August 20196 sssoursng Suiop Jo asea ath uy Teuonewroiur pue onsaUIOp ‘io ‘003 quauNsaAuT saSesnoDstp Afarasas puta SMA “saya “TWex9 JOTUNIS SNOLOUNU are AION, “SaquEduIOD aBes949q ‘pes amp asurese saAoosyeym uonoe Aue ure Jo ayqedeout Pasapuar usaq Sey IDSA “SIPAA ET ISE[ ay UT “900Z ea amp UF SaNMTDe] UORFMpOUd sPYP 01 5920" aAt8 O1 suon2auip (V¥3Sa) $AuoINY jonuOD AUTEN pue sPxep -weig ueysryed isutese srops0 AeIs poutergo sarueduro> aseroioq snoy “odes eypaur e 01 HuNp1oI0y “won! 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There is another aspect of this problem as well. Without fixing their own inefficiencies, inaction and long delays in its core function of dispensing justice, the Judiciary has recent years, become active in fixing the inefficiencies of the Executive. In the name of public interest, Executive's decisions on privatization, taxation and contracting have been called into question, and many of them have been declared null and void. Supreme Court stopped the privatization of Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM) citing the reason that extra land of PSM worth billions had not been included assessed in the privatization proposal, only to incur losses of hundreds of billions in the coming years due to non-privatization of PSM. Supreme Court declared contracts with Independent Power Producers (IPPs) illegal and unjust, only for IPPs to approach International Court of Justice and win the lawsuit for obtaining millions of dollars from the Govern- ment of Pakistan as damages. Supreme Court slashed the government levy on ‘mobile phone cards with the slogan of giving general public relief, only to cause government revenues to fall short, compelling government to impose new taxes, ultimately increas~ ing the tax burden on the masses. Had 5 the same time and energy by the Judiciary been spent on reforms in ¥ Judicial system to ensure speedy and Just disposal of court cases, public at large and national interests would have r been served much better. The Executive has a longstanding issue of priorities and orientation of its actions. Petty actions that have the potential of bringing cheap political mileage are always on top priority, at the expense of strategic actions that might not be very popular or visible among masses but are good for the country in the long run. Instead of bringing structural changes in the education sector as a whole, opening fancy Daanish Schools is the priority. Instead of addressing the problem of inadequate public transport system on scientific basis for a permanent solution that also helps in reducing the use of private vehicles, launching shining red metro buses with scintillating bus stations unlike anywhere in the world is considered the panacea for all problems. Rather than uplifting people under poverty through steps that are not only sustainable but also add to economic activity in the country, politically motivated and much-trumpeted income support Programmes are launched that encourage people to remain dependent on charity and aid rather than motivat- ing them to get self-employed in gainful activities. Positive impacts of actions are hard to come by if actions are oriented towards particular reasons rather than merit, If changes in accountability system of the country are brought with a view to teaching opponents a lesson, itis a WHICH INSTITUTION ss “Sis OS teow MSG aH A cot eran SSN ce RSE: a: ah son 40 wwwjworldtimes.com August 2019 a ee ee a ee ee |TE far cry to expect real accountability out of it. If post- ings/transfers of public functionaries are done on personal likes or dislikes, or to please/reward someone for a favour, the said public functionaries cannot be expected to discharge their duties solely in public interest. If - instead of maintaining government machinery as a cut-to-size body capable of moving sharply, ensuring good governance and economic uplift thereby creating jobs in the economy - the government becomes the biggest employer only to win political sympathies, it converts itself into an overweight sloth, unable to move, incapable of performing anything and prone to caving in under its own weight. It is nature's law that vacuum does not remain unfilled, other forces move to fill the void. The governance vacuum is filled by anarchy, lawlessness, ever- accumulating burden of problems and increasing challengers to the authority of key institutions. First is the infringement by these three institutions in one another's core functions. If Executive continuously fails to take prompt action when required, judiciary gets in to fill the vacuum through suo motu notices. When the civilian setup remains embroiled in skirmishes on party, political and institutional lines, the defence establishment moves in with clout on important national matters such as foreign policy, part of criminal justice system through military courts and bulk of political process through interference in elections, creating and dividing political parties, ete. Hoarders and smugglers can run their businesses because the government's taxation and law-enforcement machinery is weak. Terrorists and extremists hijack the society when state fails to offer an appropriate counter-narrative. People start taking law in their hands, street justice becomes popular when the state continuously fails to give sense of protection to the masses, In a field laden with these governance failures and institutional inefficiencies grow an array of challenges. Systems for provision of civic amenities and basic necessities of life have collapsed. Public education, health, housing, security, water, sanitation and waste disposal ~ all are nonexistent. People have been left in the lurch, totally on their own to get education from money-minting private schools, medical facilities from private clinics and hospitals at higher than commercial rates, housing from land mafia, security from private guards arranged separately for every street through contributions, water for use from tanker mafia and potable water from bottled water companies. Solutions to challenges emerge from identification of www.jworidtimes.com August 2019 causes, reasons and interdependencies. It is easier said than done and it will definitely take time but small yet unswerving steps towards solutions will gradually yield desired results. First and foremost, the country needs an understanding the cum-commitment at the highest level ~ the three pillars of state - to once and for all end the vicious circle of interferences and infringements; usher into an era of complementing, supplementing and creating synergies. Parliament needs to do timely legislation with far sight, leaving no loopholes that allow misuse or manipulation of laws. Judiciary shall create an assurance of prompt, objective justice - an assurance that violators of law no matter how influential will be taken to task without any delay while victims will be provided relief. The Executive will have to set its priorities and orientation right - do what's needed for the country even if it doesn’t promise more votes immediately, put right man on the right job, provide the most conducive environment to businesses, where they are assured of returns on their investment without the fear of extortion or rent-seeking practices by any person, organization or institution. Long-run prosperity will ultimately bring more votes and efficient government machinery will lead to more employment opportunities in the economy, obviating the need to adjust people in government jobs to reduce unemployment. Better governance will leave little orno room for other actors to fill the void and hence there will be more stability, triggering more economic activity, higher levels of prosperity. Itis time the country chalked out objective plans for short, ‘medium and long terms in all spheres of governance and stuck to those plans. There has to be a set direction, the right direction. There has to be action, coordinated and sustained action. There have to be solutions, well- thought-out and absolutely objective solutions. There has to be belief, self-belief, that we can ... and we must! 8 ‘The writer is a Fulbright alumnus, presently serving as ‘Deputy Secretary in the Federal Government. aNATION/ Ehsas Programme A step a a welfare state Deg Ce government's poverty A cad Pees eo ue) Sete) ol Deed federal agencies involved err Cans Cee AJKand GB, The newly- Cee Alleviation and Safety Nets ee Cae akistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government in its election manifesto and 100-day agenda envisioned to make this country a welfare state. Following up on the agenda, Prime Minister Imran Khan, on March 27, 2019 announced his vision for development and poverty alleviation under a programme called “Ehsas"(percipience). Ehsas poverty reduction strategy is based on four pillars and embodies 115 policy actions, which may be expanded during the process of further consultations. According to Prime Minister's Ehsas Policy Statement, these four pillars include: addressing elite capture and making the government system work to create equality; safety nets for disadvantaged segments of the population; human capital development; and jobs and livelihoods. ‘The Ehsas programme envisions to make constitutional amendments especially to Article 38 which caters for the promotion of social and economic welfare of the people, and Article 37 which elaborates on how the state has to ensure the above-mentioned responsibility. Therefore, Ehsas is not only a policy initiative, but also a visionary document which lays the foundations of a welfare state that provides basic necessities as fundamental rights for itscitizens. The first pillar: “Addressing elite capture and making the a2 Hira Batool government system work for equality” is targeted against injustices in taxation, water management and labour law: among other things. Under this objective, Ehsas provides for increased government spending on social protection, with a specialized ministry for this purpose and one- ‘window operation for the poor to access these services. Also, pro-poor policies and incentives will be encouraged under National and Provincial Finance Commissions and innovative ways of development funding shall be formulated that will increase the impact of public sector development programmes, The second pillar on “Safety nets" envisions sub- programmes including the “Tahafuz" (protection) which caters for downtrodden and marginalized segments of the Society. It will provide legal aid, educational grants and ‘medical insurance for the poor. The “Kifalat" (guarantees) provides cash stipends, shelter for orphans, health coverage, livelihood recovery initiatives and other elements required for the overall well-being of the society ‘The third pillar on “Human Capital Development” invests in human resource from early stage as it will help tackle malnutrition, promote preschool or early education, protect children from harm; ensure access to quality education, skills and jobs; long-term commitment to Universal Health Coverage, and measures for empowering Women and girls, The fourth pillar “Jobs and livelihoods" will formulate a \Www.jworidtimes.com August 2019[NATIONAL] new policy of solutions, innovation, challenge, prize funding, and venture capital funding to develop value chains and solutions for poverty at scale by identifying private sector partners. Itwill encourage entrepreneurs by building an enterprising environment, offering business Support and expertise, soft loans, online platforms, manpower export and youth programmes. Another essential element of Prime Minister's poverty alleviation strategy is the use of digital technology and formation of data bases entailing essential information and demographic disbursement of poverty across Pakistan. Moreover, technology will help in bringing change in traditional ways of implementation of projects towards an evidence-based decision-making for an informed policy. Itis noteworthy that these development solutions may vary in terms of objectives and design, but they all target human well-being and environmental sustainability. The steps announced by Prime Minister Imran Khan as about stunting in children and malnutrition, and the distribution of poultry as income support for low-income households. To date, there is scant evidence that much has been done to follow up on these announcements, To earnestly improve access to food, shelter, clothing, health and education, far more than constitutional amendments will be required. The prime minister said that after the amendment has been made, any citizen would be able to approach a court and demand his or her fundamental rights, The first thing that will be required will be the numbers in parliament to make this amendment to the constitution. Given the kind of relationship that Mr Khan and his government have with the opposition parties, this looks lke a challenging task. Second, the capacity of the state to actually produce results is debatable. What is obstructing better health and education outcomes at present is not the fact that they are not legally recognised as fundamental rights. Instead, the part of his anti-poverty initiative 'Ehsas’ sound innovative and sincere. ‘The amendment to Article 38 (d) of the Constitution to redefine access to food, shelter, clothing, health and education as a fundamental right would certainly, in a legal sense, change the relationship of the state with its citizenry. Along with this, Mr Khan also announced an {increase in the amount of money the state intends to spend on underprivileged segments of society — from Rs80bn to Rs120bn by 2020. The prime minister also announced that ‘anew ministry for social protection and poverty alleviation would be set up, Alllof these are sound priorities to pursue for a leader, and there can be little doubt that PM Khan, on his part, has showna sincere desire to deliver to the poor. The problem is with the path forward. In the past, too, we have heard the prime minister speak www jworldtimes.com August 2019 challenge lies in the lack of resources, overlapping Jurisdictions, and the absence of any commitment made by the political elites to prioritise social welfare objectives and give their undivided attention to the task. A constitutional amendment will give the courts the power to carve a role for themselves in the provision of social services, but this does not mean that the judiciary would be able to deliver the services in question. Itis good for Pakistan that its leadership should speak of poverty alleviation and social service delivery as important priorities of the state, and seek innovative ways to improve performance in these crucial areas. But both priorities have highly developed approaches and a wealth of past experience to learn from. A new ministry will have much to reflect on and learn, before it can embark on an effective course of action. 43an Muhammad Rafaiq acebook has finally revealed! the details of its eryptocurrency, Libra, which will let you buy things or send money to people with nearly zero fees. You'll pseudony- mously buy or cash out your Libra online or at local exchange points like grocery stores, and spend it using interoperable third-party wallet apps or Facebook’ own Calibra wallet that will be built into WhatsApp, Messenger and its own app. Facebook won't fully control Libra, but instead get just a single vote in its governance like other founding members of the Libra Association, including Visa, Uber and Andreessen Horowitz, which have invested at least $10 million each into the project's operations. Here isall you need to know about Facebook's very own cryptocurrency Whatis Libra? Facebook says Libra is a “global currency and financial infrastructure”. In other words, itis a digital asset built by Facebook and powered by a new Facebook-created version of blockchain, the encrypted technology used by bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Whyisitealled Libra? The name Libra comes from the basic Roman measurement of weight. The abbreviation Ib for pound is derived from Libra, and the £ symbol originally comes from an ornate Lin Libra Whoisin charge of Libra? The currency will be serviced by a collective of companies called the “Libra Association”. It functions as what is known asa “stablecoin,” pegged to existing assets lke the dollar or euro, in the aim of making it less subject to the volatility that many cryptocurrencies experience The Libra Association serves two main functions: to validate transactions on the Libra blockchain and to manage the reserve Librais tied to and allocate funds to social causes. The companies who contributed a minimum of $10m to be listed as founding members of the Libra Association include tech companies such as PayPal, Ebay, Spotify, Uber and Lyft, aswell as financial and venture capital firms such as Andreessen Horowitz, Thrive Capital, Visa and Mastercard. Who will handieit? Facebook is launching a subsidiary company also called Calibra that handles its crypto Facebook Inc. has recently unveiled plans for a new cryptocurrency called Libra. When it launches in 2020 or later, it will be a stablecoin - a digital currency that doesn't fluctuate much because it will be supported by established, ‘government-backed ultimate goal, as Facebook explains, is to eventually enable people to do real life ‘transactions like paying bills, buying a cup of coffee or riding local public transit without using cash. The best thing about Libra is that users would use it not only using a also using WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger - two Facebook apps that are popular among users. 44 www. jworidtimes.com August 2019ay dealings and protects users’ privacy by never mingling your Libra payments with your Facebook data soit can't be uused for ad targeting. Your real identity won't be tied to your publicly visible transactions. But Facebook /Calibra and other founding members of the Libra Association will earn interest on the money users’ cash in that is held in reserve to keep the value of Libra stable. Hows Libra differentfromfiat currency? Before knowing the difference, it is important to know what is fiat currency. Fiat currency is actually a currency issued by a government. For Pakistan, it is the rupee, for the US itis the US dollar and for the European Unionitis the euro. libra differs from fiat curren- cies in a number of ways. First, a fiat currency can be printed whereas Libra, like other cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin and Litecoin - cannot be printed. It is represented digitally. Second, fiat currencies are regulated by governments and central banks, Libra, on the other hand, is managed by The Libra Organisation. Lastly, you cannot pay your taxes using Libra but you can use fiat currencies to do so. How does Libra work? Those who have heard the story of Bitcoin know that the cryptocurrency is now struggling to cross the $10,000 mark after reaching an all time high of $19,000 in 2017. Libra is supposed to solve this inherent problem and become ‘a more stable virtual currency by having a set of low volatility assets such as bank deposits and government securities provided by the partners backing it. The group of partners, according to a blockchain blog, The Block, includes a staggering 27 names and it is a mix of telecom- munications, payments, e-commerce companies, non- profit organisations and investment firms. How will get Libra? Facebook is not going into details about how the currency will be available at launch, but signs point to a hybrid approach, The presence of traditional payment firms, ‘www.jworidtimes.com August 2019 such as Visa and MasterCard, in the list of founders suggests that the company will be perfectly happy to let users simply buy the currency. But Facebook is also likely to carry out what is known in cryptocurrency circles as an “air drop,” handing out small amounts of currency for free in an effort to kickstart the ecosystem. That will be crucial if itis to fulfil its goal of bringing financial services to people without bank accounts. Ultimately, of course, those users will need a more reliable source of Libra income than simple handouts from Facebook. In the long term, then, we can also expect some of Libra's founder members to offer their employees all or part of their pay in the currency. Howeantuseit? When the cryptocurrency launches, users can download Calibra, a digital wallet, that will allow them to send it to anyone with a smartphone. It will be available in Messenger, WhatsApp, and as a standalone app. It is not clear which countries the coin will launch in first, though Facebook sald “almost anybody” in the world with a smartphone will be able to download the app. Isitsecure? Libra is based on the Libra blockchain, which in this case is ermissioned blockchain” at least for now (Facebook intends to turn this into a permissionless blockchain five years later). Meaning? It can be modified by a handful of people when they get two thirds of the consenting votes. : As is the case with any Dlockchain, Libra is secure. But here's a thing. Facebook in its overview said that it will not share account information or financial data with Facebook or third-party apps without consumer consent ~ good. But Calibra will use Facebook data for complying with law. *Calibra will use Facebook data to comply with the law, secure customers’ accounts, mitigate risk and prevent criminal activity,” Facebook wrote, which, for sure, leaves door open for debate. 6The continued grey-listing on the part of Financial Action Task Force, the global anti-money laundering and counter-terror financing watchdog, has emerged as a major source of concern for the policymakers of Pakistan as the constant threat of blacklisting with potentially terrible financial and economic consequences continues to ‘haunt the incumbent government. Now that the recent plenary meeting of FATF, held at Orlando, USA, from 16 to 21 June has shown deep reservations on the degree of technical, administrative and legal compliance of FATF recommendations, and Action Plan shown by Pakistan, it will be fruitful to have some basic understanding about FATF so as to suggest some legal, political, diplomatic and administrative remedies to remove once for all the sword of Damocles ever hanging on Pakistan. 46 How to avoid being blacklisted? Aftab H. Wahla FATF is a 38-member intergovernmental agency which was established in 1989 during a G-7 summit in Paris with an initial aim to develop and implement measures to curb money FMB '2endering. Later, in 2001, its mandate was expanded to include counter-terror financing efforts. FATE expanded its area of jurisdiction again in 2012 by adding counter-financing for weapons of mass destruction or counter-financing for proliferation efforts to its mandate. Now this organization works in close collaboration with its members (36 countries and 2 organizations, Le. European Commission and Gulf Coopera~ tion Council), associate members (FATE-style regional organizations like ‘Asia-Pacific Group), international financial institutions (IMF, World Bank, etc.), observers (international organizations like UN Security Council) to set standards and promote effective implementation of legal, regulatory and operational measures for combating money laundering, curbing terror~ financing and eliminating threats to the integrity of international financial system. Succinctly, FATF is a policymaking body that forces the countries having strategic deficiencies in their economic system to bring about legislative and regulatory reforms in order to make their respective financial systems compatible with FATF Recommendations which it developed in 1999 and revised later, in 1996, 2001, 2003 and 2012 [AS far as the jurisdiction of FATF is concerned, it helps member countries identify and analyze threats to the integrity of their financial system: supports risk assessment at national, regional and global level; assesses and www.jworldtimes.com August 2019EEO eee SSS... COIL monitors the degree of technical compliance, implemen- tation and effectiveness of anti-money laundering and counter-terror financing regimes of member countries; points out high-risk, non-cooperative and strategically- deficient countries and penalizes them to ensure com- plete, irreversible and verifiable compliance towards FATF Recommendations; assists international bodies like UN Security Council in the implementation of resolutions on terror-financing and non-proliferation; and develops universally-applicable methods and procedures to decide downgrading or upgrading of the countries falling under the categories of black or grey list. FATE, like other international entities, has well- structured organizational setup. The organization comprises plenary, president, vice-president, steering group and secretariat. The plenary is the most important organ of FATF as it is a policymaking body that also decides all important matters with consensus. All 36 member countries enjoy voting power in the plenary meetings which are held thrice a year: February, June and October. The plenary meetings decide categorization of countries based upon the strategic deficiencies in their financial systems. ‘The decisions are made through consen- sus. In order to avoid blacklisting, the country in question requires the support of at least three members and for de-listing from grey category, the country must have the support of at least 15 members of the plenary Pakistan has never been in good books of FATF. We have had very troubled relations. Before 29 June 2018 down- grading, Pakistan had remained in the grey list in 2008 and again from 2012 to 2015. The consequences of the downgrading depend upon the geostrategic calculus and political considerations of member jurisdictions. Despite remaining in grey list from 2012 to 2015, Pakistan managed to safeguard its financial system from any negative implications, but now the situation seems more worrisome and precarious. Inaction or business-as-usual approach www jworldtimes.com August 2019 could throw the country into Black List and it would be a nightmarish scenario given the ongoing multiple economic crises. It is pertinent here to identify the areas in which Pakistan is lacking and in which areas we have made commendable progress during the last 14 months. Pakistan had made high-level political commitment in June 2018 to work with FATF and Asia Pacific Group (APG) on a 10-point Plan of Action to strengthen anti-money Jaundering and counter-terrorist financing (AML/CFT), and address strategic counter-terror financing deficien- cies in its financial system. The areas which Pakistan needed to improve included proper identification and assessment related to risks associated with terror financing; application of remedial actions and sanctions to create effective compliance for AML/CTF; sustained actions on the part of competent authorities to identify and take action against illegal money or value transfer services (Hawala or Hundi); actions against cash carriers and illicit movement of currency to minimize the chances of terror-financing; inter-agency coordination including between the provinces and the federation; investiga~ tions and prosecutions targeting UN~ designated persons and entities on the part of law-enforcement agencies; effective, proportionate and dissuasive sanctions against UN-proscribed entities, and capacity enhance- ment of prosecutors and judicial officers; targeted financial sanctions against all terrorists (Jamat-ul-Dawa, Jaish-e-Muhammad, etc.) designated under UN Security Council resolutions 1267 and 1373; enforcement against ‘TFT (Targeted Financial Sanctions) violation through administrative and criminal penalties; and deprivation of resources and usage of resources owned by designated persons and entities. In June 2018 plenary meeting, Pakistan was given time- bound tasks corresponding to each of the weaknesses identified by FATF. Pakistan was asked to take action on some of the items of Action Plan till January 2019. However, February and June 2019 meetings did not go 47CEL well for Pakistan. FATF, while acknowledging that Pakistan had taken steps towards improving its AML/CFT regimes, including operationalizing the integrated database for its currency declaration regimes and revised its TF risk assessment, urged the country, in its February 2019 meeting, to undertake swift actions on further improving the understanding associated with terror- financing. The situation was not much better in Orlando plenary as well. Pakistan not only narrowly escaped back- listing - thanks to support of Turkey, Malaysia and China ~ it also received stern warning over lack of proper under- standing regarding transnational terror-financing risks (financing to anti-India Jihadi organizations). The ‘meeting did recognize the continuous improvement in risk-assessment but urged Pakistan to swiftly complete Action Plan by October 2019; otherwise, FATF will take further steps at that time for insufficient progress (a thinly-veiled reference towards blacklisting). Notwithstanding the fact that blacklisting is not a very likely outcome of October meeting since India has nothing to offer to bargain the support of China and Saudi Arabia with any kind of diplomatic leverage as both these countries have achieved what they {intended to in June 2018 - presidency and membership of FATF, respec- tively - any remotest prospective of back-listing is bone-rattling and blood-curdling scenario for policymakers of Pakistan as no one ‘would like to have termination of IMF programme, suspension of World Bank assistance, blanket banning on transna- tional banking transactions, virtually insurmountable trade barriers, diplomatic isolation, crippling sanctions and cutting of national financial system from global finance. These terrible consequences, particularly amidst ongoing worst economic recession, do demand administrative, political, legal, regulatory, financial and diplomatic remedial measures to help Pakistan come out of the list of strategi- cally-deficient countries. Administratively, the implementation of items 5 (inter- agency coordination), 6 (effective investigation and prosecution) and 7 (capacity-building of state agencies) of 10-point Action Plan requires well-coordinated and well- delineated efforts on the part of the state to improve the efficiency of our military and civilian agencies. Multi-agency coordination is the need of the hour to plug the strategic lacunae in our financial system. In this regard, almost half a dozen government departments are required to launch well- coordinated, coherent efforts to demonstrate compliance to FATF recommendations and Action Plan. Nacta, FIA, CTD, provincial home departments and ministries of interior and foreign affairs would be the key institutions in executing the heavy agenda we have been given by FATF. Items six and seven demand capacity- building of our civilian and military LEAs with particular emphasis on police, Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) and provincial Counter-terrorism Departments. It is worth-discussing here that FATF in item 7 not only demanded effective investigation and prosecution but also asked for prosecution that results into effective, proportionate and dissuasive sanctions in order to elicit compliance on the part of designated persons and entities. To ensure execution on this item, Pakistan needs to overhaul all pillars of our criminal justice system: investigation, prosecution, adjudication and conviction. These far-reaching actions can only be materialized via comprehensive capacity-building programmes of our prosecutors and judicial officials. In addition to FATF requirements, this area of reforms is in the interest of Pakistan as well, so government must treat it as an area of utmost urgency. Politically, swift compliance on items 1 (understanding regarding risk with TF), 8 (TFS against UN-designated entities) and 10 (confiscation and freezing of assets owned by proscribed organizations) would require considerable spending of political capital and demonstration of political will. The government of Pakistan has taken momentous steps in this regard: blanket banning of the JD, JeM and their charity wings, treating banned outfits as high-risk entities, confiscating their moveable and immoveable Properties, blocking their accounts and financial flows and detaining their top leadership are some of these steps. In reports of FAFT Plenary sessions of February and June, Pakistan has made progress in revision of national risk-assessment of corporate sector associated with terror financing. One major objection that India raised in June Plenary was the detention of UN-designated top leadership under maintenance of pub lic order rather under Anti- ‘www jworldtimes.com August 2019Ns Terrorism Act, Pakistan has addressed this objection, too, by arresting key operatives of JD and JeM under terror- financing charges. fn terms of legal and regulatory efforts to curb illegal money and value transfer, as well as illicit currency ‘movement (item nos. 3 and 4 of Action Plan), Pakistan has taken a number of steps to strengthen legal and enforce~ ment mechanism against money laundering. In this regard, establishment of the Directorate of Cross Border Currency Movement to maintain database for currency seizure and suspicious transactions in close collaboration with Financial Monitoring Unit of State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and Federal Board of Revenue (FBR); strengthening customs procedures on borders and inland movement of funds and assets; formulation of Data and Risk Analysis Cell to maintain database of currency seizures, currency declaration, banking transactions and benami accounts; clampdown on illegal value transfer system (Hawala or Hundi) are worth-mentioning regulatory mea sures. The continuation of these measures would require proactive and efficient role on the part of the SBP and Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP). The role of these regulators would be critical in helping country move out of the grey list. As for legal framework against money launder- ing, we have comprehensive Anti-Money Laundering Act, 2010, and 20 plus relevant laws, three sets of regulations and 10 types of reporting formats, and guidance to combat money laundering and prevent terror-financing. In addition, the incumbent PTI government has made counter-money laundering efforts as its utmost urgency and these crimes have become center stage in our political debate which bodes well for Pakistan's jihad against this evil. ‘There isno denying the fact that decision-making in FATF is politically and strategically dictated and it necessitates strong and aggressive diplomatic push to secure support and enough votes to come out of FATE grey list. As it has been discussed earlier that Pakistan needs at least 15 votes for getting out of the grey list and minimum 3 votes to avoid blacklisting, it is high time our Foreign Office wwwjworldtimes.com August 2019 launched diplomatic campaigns in coordination with other stakeholders in major capitals of the world. In this regard, Prime Minister Imran Khan's visit to Washington could pave the way for convincing non-aligned members of FATF to vote for Pakistan. With the inclusion of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has now four countries on its side ~ others are: China, Turkey and Malaysia. Pakistan's diplomatic endeavours with PM's state visits to different countries, particularly to Russia and the United Kingdom, could be instrumental in moving out of the grey list. Any negligence in this regard can cost Pakistan dearly, despite demonstration of full compliance to the technical side of Action Plan: administrative, regulatory, monitoring and enforcement efforts. Pakistan is world's 6th most populous country and it also enjoys the status of a nuclear power. Remaining continu- ously on FATF’s grey list does not bode well for our financial and economic system and is precarious for our vital regional and global interests. Though itis hard to counter Indian lobby in major capitals of the world owing to its huge human and material resource, Pakistan must tell the world that we rank fifth in Terrorism Index due to more. than $120 billion in economic losses owing to decade-old counter-terrorism fight we have fought to defeat the monster of terrorism. Our nation has also sacrificed 70,000 plus lives in this bloody decade, We must tell the world that proxy war is not even in our own interest; transnational terrorism as the instrument of foreign policy may have been used by India in Afghanistan to instigate insurgency and separatism inside Pakistan but Pakistan has neither resources nor intention to finance proxies here as stability and regional peace and security is in our own interest. India must look upon its own wrongdoings that are creating a sense of deprivation in its own people. Pakistan has nothing to do with that. & The writer is a graduate of the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. He writes on national and international affairs. 491 NATIONAL] licies! It is a hard fact that unemployment has become the number one ‘problem of Pakistan. Irrespective of how you approach the unique set Cf challenges that face Pakistan, it seems that ack of employments a the heart of them al Be itterorism, health issues or politcal turmoil the buck stops atthe prevalent ob crisis, At present, four milion young people between the ages of 15-24 years are unemployed and this numbers sto riseto 8. milion by 2020. Itmight be unfairtosay that governments have done nothing o address the issue. What s true though, is that the approach thay have used so often is marred by various flaws and needs a major overhaul. The unemployment rate is on the rise, depriving a sizable segment of the population of its livelinood and preventing the harnessing ofthe real potential ofboth manpower and natural resources for development. Pakistan is currently plagued with the menace of unemployment. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) in its latest Labour Force Survey (for FY2017-18) claimed that unemployment rate stood at 5.8 percent, down from 5.9 percent in the previous year. The unemployment rate in females decreased to 8.3 percent from 9 percent. However, the ‘unemployment increased in males from 5 percent to 5.1 percent in the new survey. In employment, the own account worker ratio has reduced to 34.8 percent in 2017- 18 from 36.1 percent. The contributing family worker ratio stood at 21.4 percent, down from 23.8 percent. Meanwhile, the number of employees has increased to 42.4 percent from 38.7 percent. In sector wise, the employment rate in agriculture sector has gone down to 38.5 percent in 2017-18 from 42.3 percent. On the other hand, employment in industry and services sectors has enhanced during the previous fiscal year. 50 Hassaan Bin Zubair Economists say that Pakistan needs a growth rate of 7-8 percent on a sustained basis to absorb the increasing number of jobless and clear the backlog. This is not easy Much depends on the quality of growth that may or may not produce enough jobs. Capital-intensive spending, like high tech, creates jobs for highly-skilled people but squeezes the space for the blue-collar jobs. Corporates’ flexible labour policy increasingly denies a life-time career to skilled manpower. Costs are cut by outsourcing ancillary activities or by using contract labour in factories. If a reasonably good economic growth rate does not produce enough jobs, it is time to review economic policies to remedy the situation. Underemployment and Joblessness is rampant especially in rural areas leading to ‘migration to ill-planned and over-crowded cities. Often academic qualifications and skills development do not ‘match the changing market demand. Human resource development is a low priority when fresh ideas and the ‘www jworldtimes.com August 2019COI latest technology are shaping new economic activities and trends. Unemployment is turning into a critical issue, also because of increasing global curbs on workers’ immigra- tion. And a job-centred development strategy appears nowhere in sight. For the common citizen, job alone is not the only problem. A higher economic growth fuels inflation and raises the cost of living. Most people can't make a comfortable living if their incomes do not rise commensurately; just to maintain the level of inflation adjusted real wages from falling. The rising inflation rates are likely to build a case for hiking interest rates and raise cost of commodity production on account of increased financial charges. This would mean more inflation and hence, greater suffering for low-income groups. No doubt who receive dole-outs from the national exchequer, Inequality had never been challenged as much an inequity or injustice. If we analyze the situation through a social lens, interna~ tional cinema has left a huge impact on the minds of our youth. They are unable to accept ordinary jobs and prefer to sit at home rather than doing a commonplace job thereby burdening their already struggling families. This problem is rather common among the lower middle and lower working class as the upper classes tend to either assimilate their kids in their family businesses or secure good jobs through their contacts or wealth. On the other hand, poverty and inflation are increasing day by day, making it even tougher for the poor household to survive. Hence, the unemployed graduates are eventually forced to settle for ordinary jobs as they have a family to feed. At this point in time, the government and the general public need to understand that the only thing we need to focus on right now is identifying the root causes of Pakistan's wretched economic situation. It will be tough ask for government to solve one of the major problems of Pakistan “Unemployment” due to huge population but still here are some solutions to reduce the unemployment in Pakistan and it can be expected that with these solutions, the ratio of unemployment in Pakistan in Pakistan the CPEC will help make the domestic economy somewhat robust and stronger while many businesses will flourish. It will also spur regional cooperation but create more temporary jobs than permanent ones. The common citizen is largely left with no option but to fend for his } livelihood. Unable to provide as if many jobs as needed, the government takes pride in significantly increasing the amount and the number of poor } Brana | There have been sgifcant changes in the sectoral distibutn of employment between 2012-13 and 2017-18. The share of agrcuture has fallen ‘tom 44percentio 39 percent, while haf ndusty has increased fom 22 percents 24 percent andthat of he servic sector om 3 prcentto 37 percent. Theres song evidence of rater share of the informal sectors in employment. The ate ofinceasein jobs n sectors Ike wholesale and ral rade, vanspor,constucion ad privat services has been ratceabl faster Therehas also been degree of equation in wages anda reducton inte skilprenam due tothe lower rat of absorption ofeducated workers. The growth rat of eal remuneration of professionals between 2012-13 and 207-18 estimated al3 percent as compared to percetin he case of workersin elementary ocupaions. Cleary, hss major factor which has reduced income nequaly among household in the county in recent years. The other important relationships beeen GDP growth andthe rate fo creaton, Between 2012-13 and 2017-1, the cumulative growth inthe sie ofthe economy has been 26 percent. The corresponding growth in employments 10 percent. heel, lr every 1 percent growth nthe GOP, theinceasein employmentis cose to 04 percent. This is arelatvey ow response of employment to economic growth, However does highlight thatthe abour producti increase is fester. Over telat decade, the product contrbuton oa 1 percentincrease inthe GP was fst 0.6 percentascomparedto employment __The employment response to growth is mporant to quanily because it highights the pedcament thatthe county i. Thee hasbeen a isle slowdown in the economy dung the cunt franc yer. An optimistic expectation i thatthe growth ae of the economy wil be cose to 3.5 percent. This impies that he growth ate inthe rumbe’ of jobs unlikely to exceed 14 percent, equivalent oadtonal employment 64 00. | However, whan increase in te labour force of 518,00, here wilbe a sen umber unemployed of ver 00,000in2018-19.Consequenty the unemplaymentraecouldrise to over percent | Given the need for stabilization ofthe economy ove the next two years, especalyin the presence ofan IMF Program, theres needto recognize that | the PTI government target of creating two milion jobs annually will probably remain well beyond reach. Instead it wll bea beter strategy to take ‘special natives for creating and targeting more employment opportunites fr the educated, young and female workers, (Or Hafiz A. Pasha (Professor at BNU and former Federal Minister) www.jwordtimes.com August 2019 5tNATION would reduce. = Therfirst thing to do to reduce unemployment in. Pakistan is the proper planning by the govern— ment of Pakistan. = The education system of Pakistan should be ‘equal and well-managed. = Jobs should begiven purely onmerit. * There should be no Minority, Disabled, Ministe— rial and Political quotas at al. = The age of superannuation should be reduced to 55 years. = Well-recognized training and technical institu- Peet a gee] La) a I Parents ‘have ‘high expectations for their tresh-outf- ‘college kids. What good is a college degree it cant even fetch a regular job? After all, higher education costs 2 The price of a private degree is crushingly high. The government foots the bil for students avho pursue higher education in state-run colleges and universities. Most educational institutions are financed by grants from provincial governments post-devolution, ‘This article uses the Labour Force Survey 2017-18 to took atthe labourmarket sitwation for degree holders. ‘There-are a total of 8.78 milion people in Pakistan who are 20 or above-and hold at least bachelor’s degrees, accord- ing to the survey. These people can be divided into two ‘main categorios: fst, holders of bachelors, master's and MPhi/PHD ‘degrees in engineering, medicine and ‘computer:-and second, holders of bachelors, master's and IMPHIIPRD