Control measures

I
Ru
Iu
I u

S
E Iu I
E
E
I
I
HR
HR
Rd
HR HD

1 2

HD

D
I
n
HD
m

Natural mortality/natality dynamic

Control measures
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Ru
Iu
I u

S E Iu I
E E
I
I
HR
HR
Rd
HR HD

1 2

HD

D
I
HD
 104 Cumulative Cases

29 Jan 2020
8
Rep. Cases (a.r.c.)
Pred. Cases EXP29M
7
Pred. Cases EXP25F
Cumulative number of people

Pred. Cases EXP08F

6
Pred. Cases EXP29J

25 Feb 2020
8 Feb 2020

0
20
19

19

20

20

20
20

20

20

20

20

20
n

ar

ar
c

b
De

De

Ja

Fe

M
17

10

05

29
01

24

Cumulative Deaths
29 Jan 2020

25 Feb 2020
8 Feb 2020

4000 Rep. Deaths (a.r.c.)

Pred. Deaths EXP29M

3500 Pred. Deaths EXP25F

Cumulative number of people

Pred. Deaths EXP08F

3000 Pred. Deaths EXP29J

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
0

20

0
19

19

02

02
20
20
20

20

2
n

ar

ar
c

c
De

De

Ja

Fe

M
17

10

05

29
01

24
 104
16 Rep. Cases (a.r.c.)
Pred. Detected Cases
14 Pred. Undetected Cases
Cumulative number of people

Pred. Total Cases

12

10

0
20
19

19

20

20

20
20

20

20

20

20

20
n

ar

ar
c

b
De

De

Ja

Fe

M
17

10

05

29
01

24
01 01
De De
c Number of people c Number of people

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
20 20
19 19

104
104

24 24
De De
c c
20 20
19 19

17 17

Rep. Recovered
Pred. Recovered
Ja Ja
Pred. Hospitalized

n n
20 20
20 20
Rep. Hospitalized (a.r.c.)

10 10
Fe Fe
b b
20 20
20 20

05 05 17-Feb-2020
M M
ar ar
20 20
20 20
Max number of hospitalized people =64979

29 29
M M
ar ar
20 20
20 20
 Max EXP29M:17 Feb 2020 | Max EXP25F :17 Feb 2020
Max EXP08F :15 Feb 2020 | Max EXP29J:13 Feb 2020
104

Rep. Hospitalized (a.r.c.)

6
Hospitalized EXP29M
Hospitalized EXP25F
5
Hospitalized EXP08F
Number of people

Hospitalized EXP29J
4

0
20
19

19

20

20

20
20
20

20

20

20

20
b
n

ar

ar
c

c
De

De

Ja

Fe

M
17

10

05

29
01

24
 01 Number of people/day
D
ec

1000
1200
1400
1600

0
200
400
600
800
20
19

24
D
ec
20
19

New Exposed
17
Ja
n
20
20

10
Fe 27-Jan-2020
01 b
D Number of people/day 20
ec 20

0
50
100
150
200
250
20
19
05
M
24 ar
D 20
ec 20
20
19
29
M
17 ar
Ja 20
n 20
20

Reported New Deaths

Estimated New Deaths
20

10
Fe
b 01 Number of people/day
20
20 D
ec
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500

0
500

20
12-Feb-2020 19
05
M
ar 24
20
20 D
ec
20
19
29
M
ar 17
20 Ja
20 n
20
Reported New Cases
Estimated New Cases

20

10
Fe
b
20
20 06-Feb-2020

05
M
ar
20
20

29
M
ar
20
20
01
De
c

0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5

0
1
2
3
4
20
19

24
De
c
20
19

17
Ja
n
20
20

10
Fe
b 01-Feb-2020
20
20

05
M
ar
20
20

29
M
Re

ar
20
20
 105 Total Cumulative Cases (including undetected)
2
EXP 29M
1.8 =0.14
=0.25
Cumulative number of people

1.6 =0.5
=0.75
1.4 =1

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
20
19

19

20

20

20
20

20

20

20

20

20
n

ar

ar
c

b
De

De

Ja

Fe

M
17

10

05

29
01

24
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