Mini-study - Logit Model

Trip characteristics
Traveltime Travel cost
In vehicle Access Total In vehicle
Train: 6 1 7 530
Airplane: 1 1.5 2.5 1200
Differences (Plane-train) -4.5
in minutes -270

Market share Market share

Train Airplane Sum Train
Business trips 30,000 900,000 930,000 3.2 %
Private trips 110,000 100,000 210,000 52.4 %
Sum 140,000 1,000,000 1,140,000

Time value:
Business trips 600 Birr/hour 10.00 Birr/min
Private trips 30 Birr/hour 0.50 Birr/min

Model parameters
Business trips Private trips
Constant (plane) 0.50 0.50
cost-parameter (0.00146) (0.00104)

Fixed parameters
Constant (plane) 0.5 0.5
cost-parameter -0.00146 -0.00104

Model calculations:

Business trips Private trips

Market Number of Market
share trips share
P(Train)= 0.0323 30,000 0.5238
P(plane)= 0.9677 900,000 0.4762

Airplane / train - model

1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
 Airplane / train - model
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
-
-4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 30
General cost difference
 Travel cost
Access Total
60 590
100 1300
710

Generalized cost
Train Airplane
Business 4,790 2,800
Private 800 1,375

Generalized cost differenses (plane-train)

Time Cost Total
Business (2,700.00) 710 (1,990.00)
Private: (135.00) 710 575.00

Forecasts:

Private trips Business trips Private trips

Number of Market Number of Market
trips share trips share
110,000 P(Train)= 0.0323 30,000 0.5238
100,000 P(plane)= 0.9677 900,000 0.4762

train - model
train - model

1000 2000 3000 4000

ference
 500

-3000 -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000

Business: 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.12
Private: 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.18

Private trips
Number of
trips
110,000
100,000
-500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
0.23 0.38 0.56 0.72 0.84 0.92 0.96 0.98
0.27 0.38 0.50 0.63 0.74 0.83 0.89 0.93