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Production
WAP 5-20
May 2020
USDA forecasts China’s 2020/21 cotton production at 26.5 million 480-pound bales (5.77 million
metric tons), down 3 percent from last year, and down 4 percent from the 5-year average. Area is
forecast at 3.3 million hectares, down 4 percent from last year, but up 1 percent from the 5-year
average. Yield is forecast at 1,748 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), up 2 percent from last year and
up 3 percent from the 5-year average of 1,697 kg/ha. Yield is at the long-term trend due to the
increasing share of cotton being planted in Xinjiang province where yield is nearly double
elsewhere in the country. Approximately 85 percent of total China cotton is produced in Xinjiang.
Total cotton area in China has been decreasing due to the decreases in eastern areas.
Cotton planting started in April and is expected to continue through May; the typical cotton
growing season is April to October. In Xinjiang, planting begins in April while on the North China
Plain provinces of Shandong, Hebei, and Jiangsu, planting begins in April and extends through
May. The start of the 2020/21 season is characterized by favorable conditions - adequate irrigation
water availability and rainfall in March to April. These conditions facilitated rapid planting and
Australia Cotton: Rains Help Refill Reservoirs; Forecast 2020/2021 Area Up 200 Percent
USDA forecasts 2020/21 Australia cotton production at 1.7 million 480-pound bales, up 1.08
million (172 percent) from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 180,000 hectares, up 200 percent
from last year but 52 percent
below the 5-year average.
Yield is forecast at 2,056
kilograms per hectare, 14
percent above the 5-year
average.
USDA estimates India cotton production for 2019/20 at 30.5 million 480-pound bales, up 3 percent
from last month and up 18 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 13.3 million
hectares, up 2 percent from last month and nearly 6 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at
499 kilograms per hectare, up 1 percent from last month and up almost 12 percent from last year.
This 3 percent revision in production from last month is based on the India Ministry of
Agriculture’s higher estimates in Telangana.
Cotton is grown only in the kharif season from May to October, but harvest can continue into
February. The southern region, which includes the states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana,
Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, plants cotton in September and harvests in January or February. (For
more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@usda.gov.)
EU27 + UK* Rapeseed: 2020/21 Production Similar to Last Year; Another Year of Low
Area
Rapeseed production in the European Union (EU27 + UK) for 2020/21 is forecast at 17.0 million
metric tons (mmt), 0.2 mmt above last year, but 16 percent below the 5-year average. Harvested
area is estimated at 5.5 million hectares, 0.1 million hectares (mha) or 2 percent below last year’s
area, and 16 percent below the 5-year average. Yield is forecast at 3.12 tons per hectare, up 3
percent from last year, but similar to the 5-year average.
In addition to weather variables affecting rapeseed, many EU farmers are also seeing the
profitability balance shift towards planting less rapeseed. Generally, market prices have not
overcome the lower yields resulting from neonicotinoid restrictions.
For country-specific area, yield, and production estimates within the European Union (EU), please
go to PSD Online at https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/app/index.html#/app/home, and select
“Downloadable Data Sets.” Select the zipped file for “EU Countries Area & Production.” (For
more information, please contact Bryan.Purcell@usda.gov.)
Brazil Soybeans: 2019/20 Record Output Expected Despite Severe Drought in Rio Grande
do Sul
Brazil’s 2019/20 soybean production is estimated at a record 124.0 million metric tons (mmt),
down 0.5 mmt from last month but up 5.0 mmt (4 percent) from last year. Area is estimated at a
record 36.8 million hectares (mha), down 0.1 mha from last month and up 0.9 mha (3 percent)
from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.37 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month, up 3 percent
from last year and up 5 percent from the 5-year average. Record output is expected despite
weather-related production losses in Rio Grande do Sul. Brazil’s record output this year will
overtake the United States as the world’s leading soybean producer.
Harvest began in January for crops planted in mid-September. The harvest is almost complete with
a few soybeans left to harvest in northeastern Brazil and Rio Grande do Sul. Record yields were
reported in the top producing states of Mato Grosso (~34 mmt), Paraná (~20 mmt), and Goiás (~12
mmt). Harvest is approximately 90 percent complete in the northeast and reported yields are well
above average. (For more information, please contact Curt.Reynolds@usda.gov.)
USDA estimates Argentina soybean production for 2019/20 at 51.0 million metric tons, down 2
percent from last month and down 8 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 17.0 million
hectares, up 1 percent from last month and up 2 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.00
tons per hectare, down 3 percent from last month and down 10 percent from last year. Comparing
previous years to 2019/20, the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
supports an average yield of 3.00 tons per hectare for the season. Dry, hot conditions during the
last half of February were followed by scattered showers throughout harvest. With harvesting over
65 percent complete, fieldwork can continue as rains stop and fields dry out. (For more
information, please contact Denise.McWilliams@usda.gov.)
Malaysia Palm Oil: 2019/20 Estimated Production Down 12 Percent from Last Year
USDA estimates Malaysia 2019/20 palm oil production at 18.5 million metric tons (mmt), down
3 percent from last month and down 11 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 5.35
million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 1 percent from last year. Yield is estimated
at 3.46 tons per hectare, down 3 percent from last month and down 12 percent from last year.
USDA estimates Indonesia 2019/20 rice production at 33.5 million metric tons (milled basis),
down 8 percent from last month and down 2 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at
11.3 million hectares, down 6 percent from last month and down 2 percent from last year. Yield is
estimated at 4.67 metric tons per hectare (mt/ha), down 3 percent from last month and down
marginally from last year.
Rice in Indonesia is cultivated in three different cycles. Cultivation for the first cycle (main) is
dependent on the onset of the wet season, from October through December, and harvested from
February to April. The main rice crop is 85 percent irrigated and represents about 45 percent of
Indonesia total rice output. The second and third rice cycles are cultivated in the dry season, which
begin cultivation March to June and July to October, respectively.
USDA has revised 2018/19 Indonesia rice area, production and yield to reflect updated information
from BPS. (For more information, please contact Justin.Jenkins@usda.gov.)
EU 27+ UK* Wheat 2020/21: Sharp Drop in Production; Lowest Planted Area in Years
USDA forecasts wheat production in the European Union (EU27 + UK) for 2020/21 at 143.0
million metric tons (mmt), down 11.8 mmt or 8 percent below last year, and down 4 percent from
the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 25.3 million hectares (mha), 0.8 mha or 3
percent below last year’s low area, and 4 percent below the 5-year average. Yield is forecast at
5.66 tons per hectare, down 5 percent from last year but less than one percent from the 5-year
average.
Meanwhile, soil moisture conditions in Spain since November have been exceptional, bolstering
record production expectations. Winter throughout Europe was very mild with a few reports in
March of possible scattered frost damage. The current yield concerns center around dryness in
central Europe.
For country-specific area, yield, and production estimates within the European Union (EU), please
go to PSD Online at https://apps.fas.usda.gov/PSDOnline/app/index.html#/app/home, and select
“Downloadable Data Sets.” Select the zipped file for “EU Countries Area & Production.” (For
more information, please contact Bryan.Purcell@usda.gov.)
Russia wheat production for 2020/21 is forecast at 77.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 5 percent
from last year. The forecast includes 57.0 mmt of winter wheat and 20.0 mmt of spring wheat.
USDA crop production forecasts for Russia exclude forecast output from Crimea. Total wheat
yield is forecast at 2.80 tons per hectare, up 4 percent from last year. Total area is expected to
increase slightly from last year to 27.5 million hectares.
Winter wheat typically accounts for about 70 percent of production. According to data from the
Russian Ministry of Agriculture published in the beginning of December 2019, the area planted to
winter grains in 2020/21 is a record and is up year-to-year by 6 percent. Winter wheat accounts for
about 85 percent of the total winter grains crop in Russia and the remainder is divided between
barley, rye and triticale.
Planting of spring wheat began in late April and is on track with the previous year at about 12
percent complete as of the 30th of April. Spring wheat is mainly planted in the regions bordering
Kazakhstan: the Volga, Urals and Siberian Districts of Russia. Planting will accelerate in all
districts in May.
Brazil’s 2019/20 corn production is estimated at 101 million metric tons (mmt), unchanged from
last month and last year’s record crop. Area is estimated at a record 18.2 million hectares (mha),
up 0.1 mha (0.6 percent) from last month and up 0.7 mha (4 percent) from last year. Yield is
estimated at 5.55 tons per hectare, down 0.5 percent from last month, down 4 percent from last
year and up 7 percent from the 5-year average. Forecast yields for the second-season crop were
lowered this month due to dry March and April weather conditions in southern Mato Grosso,
Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná.
This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service’s (FAS) global network of
agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign
source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign
area, yield, and production are from the International Production Assessment Division, FAS, and
are reviewed by USDA’s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area,
yield, and production are from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within
the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates
released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-584), May 12, 2020.
Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download
an order form at http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at
1-800-363-2068.
The FAS International Production Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of
World Agricultural Production will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, June 11, 2020.
Conversion Table
Cotton = MT * 4.592917
Rice = MT * 22.04622
GENERAL INFORMATION
Wheat
2018/19 730.5 679.2 51.3 32.2 3.0 71.7 25.1 nr 131.4 99.9 0.0 25.1 0.0 19.5 5.4 17.3 1.9 19.0 227.8
2019/20 prel. 764.3 712.1 52.3 32.3 3.2 73.6 29.2 nr 133.6 103.6 0.0 24.3 0.0 19.5 5.2 15.2 1.5 18.5 252.3
2020/21 proj.
May 768.5 717.7 50.8 34.0 3.3 77.0 28.0 nr 135.0 103.0 0.0 26.1 0.0 21.0 5.5 24.0 1.7 18.5 240.6
Coarse Grains
2018/19 1,396.4 1,018.5 377.9 26.2 33.4 35.0 44.5 nr 264.5 43.2 12.0 6.6 5.7 59.2 104.3 10.9 12.4 13.3 347.2
2019/20 prel. 1,406.1 1,045.6 360.5 28.5 30.4 40.5 46.5 nr 268.2 45.4 11.9 7.4 5.3 56.8 104.6 10.6 16.5 14.5 358.7
2020/21 proj.
May 1,481.4 1,060.9 420.5 30.3 33.6 39.4 49.8 nr 267.4 44.8 12.0 7.5 5.7 56.7 109.4 12.7 14.6 15.8 361.2
Rice, Milled
2018/19 496.5 489.4 7.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 nr 148.5 116.5 34.2 7.3 20.3 0.8 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 153.1
2019/20 prel. 493.8 487.9 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 nr 146.7 118.0 33.5 7.2 18.0 0.8 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 155.0
2020/21 proj.
May 502.0 495.1 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 nr 149.0 118.0 34.9 7.5 20.4 0.8 6.9 0.3 0.0 0.6 155.8
Total Grains
2018/19 2,623.4 2,187.1 436.3 58.4 36.6 107.4 69.6 nr 544.4 259.6 46.2 39.0 26.0 79.5 116.9 28.3 14.3 32.9 728.1
2019/20 prel. 2,664.2 2,245.6 418.6 60.9 33.8 114.8 75.8 nr 548.5 267.0 45.4 38.9 23.3 77.0 116.9 25.8 18.0 33.6 766.0
2020/21 proj.
May 2,751.9 2,273.7 478.1 64.3 37.1 117.1 77.9 nr 551.4 265.8 46.9 41.1 26.1 78.5 121.8 37.0 16.3 34.9 757.6
Oilseeds
2018/19 599.7 468.9 130.7 27.7 1.3 18.7 22.7 nr 60.0 35.5 14.1 3.8 1.0 61.0 123.9 2.9 2.0 3.4 91.0
2019/20 prel. 575.2 468.1 107.1 25.1 1.1 21.7 23.7 nr 62.6 37.1 14.4 3.3 1.1 55.9 129.1 2.6 2.1 3.3 85.0
2020/21 proj.
May 605.9 482.7 123.2 26.1 1.2 22.3 24.5 nr 61.9 36.7 14.6 3.4 1.1 59.2 135.7 3.7 2.1 3.1 87.1
Cotton
2018/19 118.7 100.3 18.4 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 1.7 27.8 25.8 0.0 7.6 0.0 1.1 13.0 2.2 0.2 3.8 15.4
2019/20 prel. 122.7 102.8 19.9 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 2.0 27.3 30.5 0.0 6.2 0.0 1.0 13.2 0.6 0.1 3.6 16.7
2020/21 proj.
May 119.0 99.5 19.5 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 26.5 28.5 0.0 6.3 0.0 1.0 12.0 1.7 0.2 3.7 16.4
World and Selected Countries and Regions; Coarse Grain includes: Barley, Corn, Millet, Mixed Grains, Oats, Rye and Sorghum
Yield is on a rough basis, before the milling process. Production is on a milled basis, after the milling process.
World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and
rapeseed)
Oilseed, Copra
Philippines 2.63 2.50 2.40 -0.10 -4.00
Indonesia 1.64 1.66 1.66 0.00 0.00
India 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.00 0.00
Vietnam 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.01 3.45
Mexico 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.00 0.00
Papua New Guinea 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00
Thailand 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.00
Sri Lanka 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.00 0.00
Solomon Islands 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00
Cote d'Ivoire 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00
World 5.98 5.86 5.77 -0.09 -1.54
Oil, Palm
Indonesia 41.50 42.50 43.50 1.00 2.35
Malaysia 20.80 18.50 19.30 0.80 4.32
Thailand 3.00 2.80 3.10 0.30 10.71
Colombia 1.63 1.53 1.67 0.14 9.15
Nigeria 1.02 1.02 1.02 0.00 0.00
Guatemala 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.00 0.00
Honduras 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.00 0.00
Papua New Guinea 0.71 0.56 0.56 0.00 0.00
Ecuador 0.56 0.55 0.62 0.07 12.73
Brazil 0.53 0.54 0.54 0.00 0.00
World 74.02 72.27 74.60 2.33 3.22
The table below presents a record of the May projection and the final Estimate. Using world wheat production as an
example, the "root mean square error" means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or
below the final estimate by more than 3.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will
not exceed 5.3 percent. The average difference between the May projection and the final estimate is 16.5 million tons,
ranging from 1.7 million to 35 million tons. The May projection has been below the estimate 23 times and above 16 times.
RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS 1/
Difference between forecast and final estimate
90 percent
COMMODITY AND Root mean
confidence Years
REGION square error
interval Below Above
Average Smallest Largest final final
COARSE GRAINS 2/
World 3.7 6.3 26.6 1.1 103.6 19 20
RICE (Milled)
World 2.4 4.1 6.9 0.0 21.8 23 16
SOYBEANS
World NA NA 11.5 1.5 23.1 6 5