Journal of Applied Computer Science & Mathematics, no.
15 (7) /2013, Suceava
A Traffic Prediction Algorithm for Street Lighting Control Efficiency
1
Alexandru LAVRIC, 2Valentin POPA
1,2
Stefan cel Mare University, Computers, Electronics and Automation Department, Suceava, Romania
1
lavric@eed.usv.ro
Abstract–This paper presents the development of a traffic
prediction algorithm that can be integrated in a street lighting
monitoring and control system. The prediction algorithm must
enable the reduction of energy costs and improve energy
efficiency by decreasing the light intensity depending on the
traffic level. The algorithm analyses and processes the
information received at the command center based on the
traffic level at different moments. The data is collected by
means of the Doppler vehicle detection sensors integrated
within the system. Thus, two methods are used for the
implementation of the algorithm: a neural network and a k-NN
(k-Nearest Neighbor) prediction algorithm. For 500 training
cycles, the mean square error of the neural network is 9.766
and for 500.000 training cycles the error amounts to 0.877. In
case of the k-NN algorithm the error increases from 8.24 for
k=5 to 12.27 for a number of 50 neighbors. In terms of a root
means square error parameter, the use of a neural network
ensures the highest performance level and can be integrated in
a street lighting control system.
Keywords: street lighting control; traffic prediction
algorithm; neural network; dimming;
I. INTRODUCTION
The reduction of energy consumption is an increasingly
debated issue at a European level [1]. Street lighting is
designed to meet the requirements of local communities. The
energy consumption per each lamp or possible energy losses
are also rather unknown [2]. Street lighting systems
administrators rely on the citizens, or on regular check-ups
for the detection or reporting of the potential malfunctions,
since there is no automatic lamp monitoring and control
system. Another problem would be the need to adjust the
luminosity level depending on the changes in the
environment, such as traffic levels.
Some related papers present and analyze various aspects
of the street lighting monitoring and control systems [3] -
[15].
In a related work [3], we have presented the hardware and
software implementation of a street lighting monitoring and
control system. The system includes: a street lighting LED
lamp (Elecromax), the WSN JN5148 module, the e-Box
4300 module, a dimming circuit through the digital PWM
method, a vehicle detection sensor and a malfunction
detection circuit.
The system also includes a vehicle detection algorithm
which enables the dimming of the light intensity depending
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on the presence of vehicles and thus allowing for a further
reduction of power consumption. Thus, when the presence of
a vehicle is detected, the node will turn on the lamps at a
light intensity that can be set by the user. This paper presents
the development of a traffic prediction algorithm that can be
integrated in a street lighting monitoring system.
The prediction algorithm must enable the reduction of
energy costs and improve energy efficiency by decreasing
the light intensity depending on the traffic level. The
algorithm must analyze and process the information received
at the command center on the traffic level at different
moments. This information is obtained using Doppler vehicle
detection sensors integrated into the system. Thus, two
methods are used for the implementation of the algorithm: a
neural network and a k-NN prediction algorithm. There are
several papers in the scientific literature [16] - [24],
addressing traffic prediction algorithms but none of them
addresses their integration in a lighting control system to
increase energy efficiency.
II. THE TRAFFIC PREDICTION ALGORITHM
The system is equipped with a Doppler sensor that detects
the presence of vehicles and can be used for determining
traffic levels so that local government structures can take
measures to reduce congestion. Thus, each sensor counts the
number of vehicles that pass by during a certain period of
time (e.g. one hour) and the information is saved in a
database. A first stage of the algorithm involves the use of
the information stored in this database for making forecasts
regarding the number of passing vehicles during different
time intervals. Fig. 1 presents logical operations of the traffic
prediction algorithm which include building the model,
checking the accuracy of the generated model and eventually
applying the model to the data set.
The accuracy of the model increases with the number of
records in the database. The Rapid Miner [25], which is a
type of open-source software designed for data processing, is
used for building and testing the model. The design of the
algorithm must rely on a real set of data in order to enable
the accuracy of the traffic prediction model. Thus, the data
set used is the one obtained by the public authorities in
Vermont, USA [26]. The data was collected after the
implementation of a vehicular traffic counter installed in
different areas of the city. Fig. 2 shows the traffic count for
one week in January 2012.
 Computer Science Section
Fig. 1Traffic prediction algorithm.
Fig. 2 Traffic count.
The maximum number of vehicles is 135 at 5 a.m. and the
minimum number is of 7 vehicles at 1 a.m.In order to
develop the testing and evaluation of the traffic prediction
device, a neural network and a prediction algorithm of the k-
NN (k-Nearest Neighbor) type have been considered. Fig. 4
and 5 show the data set processing mechanisms. The first
part entails importing the database containing the data set
and subsequently applying it to the k-NN/neural network by
means of the Retrieve operator. The next step is setting the
label attribute, which is the attribute to be predicted by using
the Set Role operator. The Neutral Net operator generates an
information correlation model through a feed-forward neural
network fed by a multi-layer perceptron propagation
algorithm. This operator can only process numerical
attributes.
An artificial neural network (ANN-Artificial Neural
Network), found in the professional literature as the neural
network (NN), is a mathematical model or a measuring
model that is inspired by the structure and functional aspects
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of biological neural networks. A neural network consists of
an interconnected group of artificial neurons that process the
information by using a connectionist type of approach. In
most cases, an ANN network is an adjustable system that
changes its structure based on the external or internal
information that goes through the network during the training
stage. Modern neural networks are often used for modeling
the complex relationships between the set of inputs and the
set of outputs or to design data processing models. A feed-
forward neural network is a network where the connections
between inputs and outputs are not established evenly. In this
network, the information is translated in a single direction,
forward, from the input nodes, through the hidden nodes (if
any) to the output nodes [25].
The propagation algorithm is a supervised training
method, which can be divided into two phases: propagation
and updating of the weighting factors used. These steps are
repeated until the network performance level is as high as
possible. The output values are compared with the correct
answer in order to measure the error. The use of various
techniques allow for the error to be fed back to the network.
By using this information, the algorithm adjusts the weights
of each connection in order to diminish the error as much as
possible. After repeating this process for a sufficiently large
number of training cycles, the network will usually converge
towards a certain error.
A prediction model based on neural network training
cycles (Neural Net) is generated at a mode neural network
output; this model is implemented by means of the Apply
Model operator to the data set that trains the neural network.
In order to assess the performance of the proposed prediction
model, the Performance operator is used to check the model
error by correlating the data collected through the prediction
process with the actual information in the data set.
Fig. 3 presents the general structure of a neural network. A
neural network consists of neurons, the hidden layers and
neurons; the connections between neurons and the hidden
layers are called weighted connections.
Fig. 4 shows the structure of the prediction algorithm
based on a neural network.
Fig. 5 shows the design process of the traffic level
prediction algorithm that uses a k-NN type of process.
Fig. 3 The structure of a Neutral Network.
 Journal of Applied Computer Science & Mathematics, no. 15 (7) /2013, Suceava
Fig. 4 Algorithm designed by means of a neural network.
Fig.5 Algorithm designed by means of a K-NN process.
The k-NN operator generates a k-Nearest Neighbor pattern
by processing the input set. This operator can be used as a
classification or a regression model depending on the data set
type.
The k-NN algorithm is based on an analogy learning
process, by comparing a given trial data set of
training/learning examples, which are similar to it. The
training examples are described by n attributes. Each data set
is a dot in an n-dimensional space. When an unknown
example is inserted, a k-Nearest Neighbor algorithm searches
the type of model for the k training examples that are closest
to the unknown sample. These k training examples are the
closest k neighbors of the unknown sample. Proximity is
defined as a metric distance, such as the Euclidean distance.
The k-Nearest Neighbor algorithm is the simplest method of
learning. If the number of neighbors amounts to 1, the
example is then simply the attribute of the nearest neighbor.
The same method can be used to calculate regression by
assigning weights so that the nearest neighbors can
contribute more than the farther ones. The k-NN algorithm
consists of two stages: locating the k training examples that
are nearest to the unknown example and adopting the
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classification method which is most common for these k
examples. Thus, the design of the prediction model employs
the weight factor method which entails that the closest
neighbors should contribute more to the designing of the
model [16].
Fig. 6 presents the variation of the RMS (Root Mean
Square) error generated by the prediction algorithm designed
by means of a neural network depending on the number of
training cycles. The training cycle parameter specifies the
number of training cycles used to train the neural network. In
a feed-backward propagation algorithm, the output values are
compared to the correct answer in order to calculate the
error. The error is then fed back through the network. By
using this information, the algorithm adjusts the weights of
each connection in order to reduce the error. The mean
square error was obtained by calculating the traffic in the
area at 11:00 p.m. on different days of the year.
Fig. 6 shows that as the number of training cycles applied
to the neural network used for the prediction model
increases, the mean square error decreases, but the time spent
processing the information increases significantly. Thus, for
500 training cycles, the mean square error is 9.766 and for
500.000 training cycles the error amounts to 0.877.
Fig. 7 shows the variation of the RMS error of the
prediction mechanism that uses a k-NN algorithm. The
collected data shows that the error increases at the same time
with the number of neighbors of the label variable applied to
the input of the prediction algorithm.
The accuracy of the prediction model requires the taking
into account of a large number of neighbors of the label
dataset, but the mean square error increases with the number
of neighbors. The error increases from 8.24 for k=5 to 12.27
for a number of 50 neighbors.
The collected data shows that a traffic prediction model
using a neural network ensures the highest performance level
and can be integrated into the street lighting monitoring and
control system. Table I shows the values obtained by
applying the prediction algorithm using a neural network.
Fig. 6 The RMS error for the traffic prediction algorithm that uses a neural
network.
 Computer Science Section

Fig. 8 The RMS error for the dimming prediction algorithm that uses a neural
network.
Fig. 7 The RMS error for the traffic prediction algorithm that uses a k-NN
process.

The data stand for the car traffic recorded at 11:00 p.m. on
different days of the year.
Another aspect that has been considered is the design of a
prediction algorithm for light dimming threshold depending
on the traffic predicted for the different times of the day and
by taking into account the previous decisions made by the
human user in similar situations. Thus, the following
dimming stages were considered, as presented in Table II.
Thus, apart from collecting the information related to the
number of vehicles, the system also saves and information on
the light dimming threshold. After processing the data set
applied to the input the algorithm must make the appropriate
dimming decision. The input set of data includes information
Fig. 9 The RMS error for the dimming prediction algorithm that uses a k-NN
about the traffic level and the previous dimming decision algorithm.
made by the user.
Fig. 8 shows the RMS error for the algorithm designed by The results show that the dimming prediction algorithm
means of a neural network. The minimum error obtained for depending on the number of vehicles during a specific time
a total of 50.000 training cycles amounts to 0.824. frame and using a neural network ensures the highest
Fig. 9 shows the RMS error for the dimming prediction performance level.
algorithm that uses a k-NN algorithm. The RMS error
increases from 12.17 for a number of 5 neighbors to 13.91 III. CONCLUSIONS
for k = 50.
The obtained results show that with the increasing number
TABLE I. DATA COLLECTED BY MEANS OF A NEURAL NETWORK of training cycles applied to the neural network used for the
Actual traffic Predicted traffic
Day
data data
design of the prediction model, the mean square error
1 46 45.99 decreases, but the information processing time increases
2 35 35.48 significantly. Thus, for 500 training cycles, the mean square
3 30 29.35 error is of 9.766 and for 500.000 cycles, the error amounts to
4 42 42.58 0.877. The use of the k-NN algorithm increases the error as
5 49 49.07
the number of neighbors of the label variable that is applied
TABLE II. LIGHT INTENSITY DIMMING STAGES to the input of the prediction algorithm increases as well. We
Traffic data Dimming must take into account a considerable number of neighbors
x  (0,30] 50%
of the label data set in order to ensure the accuracy of the
x  (30,60] 40%
model, but the mean square error will increase with the
x  (60,90 ] 30% number of neighbors. Thus, the traffic prediction model
x  (90,120] 20% using a neural network ensures the highest performance level
x  (120,150 ] 10% and can be integrated into the street lighting monitoring and
x  150 0% control system.

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 Journal of Applied Computer Science & Mathematics, no. 15 (7) /2013, Suceava

The obtained results show that the highest performance Power Engineering EPE , pp. 314-317, 2012.
level is ensured by a prediction algorithm for the different [10] Alexandru Lavric, Valentin Popa, Codrin Males, Ilie Finis, „New
Technologies in Street Lighting”, International Word Energy System
stages of light intensity dimming depending on the number Conference (WESC), pp. 811-816, 2012.
of vehicles during a specific time interval using a neural [11] Alexandru Lavric, Valentin Popa, „The Design and Development of a
network. Street Lighting Monitoring and Control System”,DAS Doctoral
In the next research phase, we will consider other Symposium, Suceava,pp. 66, 2012.
prediction and evolutionary algorithms such as Kalman [12] F. Leccese, “Remote-Control System of High Efficiency and
Filter and PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) in order to Intelligent Street Lighting Using a ZigBee Network of Devices and
Sensors,” IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, vol. 28, no. 1, pp.
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[13] Lavric A., V. Popa,”Comparative analysis of communication protocols
ACKNOWLEDGMENT and routing algorithms used in street lighting control systems,” Revista
Sisteme Distribuite, pag.32-35, Suceava, 2011.
This paper was supported by the project "Improvement of [14] W. Z. Mai, “Case Study of A Highly-Reliable Dimmable Road
the doctoral studies quality in engineering science for Lighting System with Intelligent Remote Control Brief Review of
development of the knowledge based society-QDOC” Dimming Technology for Road Lighting Systems,” Power Electronics
contract no. POSDRU/107/1.5/S/78534, project co-funded by and Applications, pp. 1–10, 2005.
the European Social Fund through the Sectorial Operational [15] F. Leccese and Z. Leonowicz, “Intelligent wireless street lighting
system,” 2012 11th International Conference on Environment and
Program Human Resources 2007-2013. Electrical Engineering, pp. 958–961, May 2012.
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LAVRIC Alexandru graduated at the Faculty of Electronic Telecommunication and Information Technology. In 2008 he obtained a
Bachelor degree in Administrative Sciences from "Ştefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Faculty of Economics and Public
Administration, in 2010 obtained a Master degree in Business Affairs and in 2012 a Master of science diploma in Computer and
Communications Networks. Since 2010, he is a PhD attending student in Electronics and Telecommunications. His main research areas are:
lighting control systems, WSN and wireless communication technologies.
POPA Valentin graduated at the "Gh. Asachi" Technical University of Iasi, Electrical, Electronics and Telecommunications Faculty, study
program- Electronics and Telecommunications in 1989. After finishing the faculty, he followed a PhD. study and graduated in 1998. Since
1992, he has been working at “Ştefan cel Mare” University of Suceava receiving the title of Prof. in 2005. His main research areas are:
RFID systems, intelligent sensor networks and wireless data transmission systems. From 2009, he is PhD coordinator. Currently, he is the
rector of the “Ştefan cel Mare” University of Suceava.

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