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Radouane Yafia∗,
In this study, we present a SIR mathematical model in order to study the dynamics and propagation
of Covid19 in the world. Using the code created by Milan Batista and developed by Joshua McGee
[4, 5], we plot curves estimating the end of Covid19 in some countries in the world with uncertainty
zones.These predictions may change as the real population behaviours change and are valid for near
future and not long future.
More details about SIR model see [1, 2, 3]
The following figures are attached to the study given by Yafia "Modeling and Dynamics in Epi-
demiology, COVID19 withLockdown and Isolation Effect : Application to Moroccan Case " (see
[6]) and media24 (see [7]).
All these figures modify the figures presented recently by Jianxi Luo [8] and on the website:
https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/
NB: My first figure on the prediction of Morocco of April 19, 2020 was published on researchgate
at April 19, 2020 with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32595.12324.
If you would like to have the prediction of a country, please send me an email
∗
R. Yafia : Laboratory of Analysis, Geometry and Applications (LAGA), Department of Mathematics Faculty of
Sciences, Ibn Tofail University, Campus Universitaire BP 133, Kenitra, Morocco radouane.yafia@uit.ac.ma
1
Singapore : Epidémie Coronavirus: (modèle SIR ): 25-Apr-2020
R0 = 1.23
20
15
Infectés (x1000 cas)
10
Prévision
Actuel
0
30/03/20 04/04/20 09/04/20 14/04/20 19/04/20 24/04/20 29/04/20 04/05/20 09/05/20 14/05/20 19/05/20
Date
1000
Actuel
Prévision
500
0
30/03/20 04/04/20 09/04/20 14/04/20 19/04/20 24/04/20 29/04/20 04/05/20 09/05/20 14/05/20 19/05/20
Date
2
France : Epidémie Coronavirus: (modèle SIR ): 28-Apr-2020
R0 = 2.13
140
120
100
Infectés (x1000 cas)
Prévision
80 Actuel
60
40
20
0
29/02/20 10/03/20 20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20 09/05/20 19/05/20 29/05/20
Date
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
29/02/20 10/03/20 20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20 09/05/20 19/05/20 29/05/20
Date
3
UnitedKingdom : Epidémie Coronavirus: (modèle SIR ): 28-Apr-2020
R0 = 1.89
200
150
Infectés (x1000 cas)
100
Prévision
Actuel
50
0
29/02/20 10/03/20 20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20 09/05/20 19/05/20 29/05/20 08/06/20
Date
8000
Nombre de cas infectés/jour
7000
6000
Actuel
5000 Prévision
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
29/02/20 10/03/20 20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20 09/05/20 19/05/20 29/05/20 08/06/20
Date
4
Italy : Epidémie Coronavirus: (modèle SIR ): 28-Apr-2020
R0 = 2.12
300
250
Infectés (x1000 cas)
200
150
100
Prévision
Actuel
50
0
10/03/20 30/03/20 19/04/20 09/05/20 29/05/20 18/06/20
Date
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
10/03/20 30/03/20 19/04/20 09/05/20 29/05/20 18/06/20
Date
5
SaudiArabia : Epidémie Coronavirus: (modèle SIR ): 28-Apr-2020
R0 = 3.83
40
35
30
Infectés (x1000 cas)
25
20
Prévision
15 Actuel
10
0
20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20 09/05/20 19/05/20 29/05/20 08/06/20 18/06/20
Date
1000
Actuel
Prévision
500
0
20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20 09/05/20 19/05/20 29/05/20 08/06/20 18/06/20
Date
6
Algeria : Epidémie Coronavirus: (modèle SIR ): 28-Apr-2020
R0 = 1.54
5
4
Infectés (x1000 cas)
Prévision
2 Actuel
0
10/03/20 20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20 09/05/20 19/05/20 29/05/20 08/06/20 18/06/20
Date
150
Actuel
Prévision
100
50
0
10/03/20 20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20 09/05/20 19/05/20 29/05/20 08/06/20 18/06/20
Date
7
Algeria : Epidémie Coronavirus: (modèle SIR ): 28-Apr-2020
R0 = 1.54
5
4
Infectés (x1000 cas)
Prévision
2 Actuel
0
10/03/20 20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20 09/05/20 19/05/20 29/05/20 08/06/20 18/06/20
Date
400
Nombre de cas infectés/jour
300 Actuel
Prévision
200
100
0
10/03/20 20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20 09/05/20 19/05/20 29/05/20 08/06/20 18/06/20
Date
8
Bahrain : Epidémie Coronavirus: (modèle SIR ): 27-Apr-2020
R0 = 44.31
8
6
Infectés (x1000 cas)
4
Prévision
3 Actuel
0
10/03/20 30/03/20 19/04/20 09/05/20 29/05/20 18/06/20 08/07/20 28/07/20 17/08/20
Date
300
Nombre de cas infectés/jour
250
Actuel
200 Prévision
150
100
50
0
10/03/20 30/03/20 19/04/20 09/05/20 29/05/20 18/06/20 08/07/20 28/07/20 17/08/20
Date
9
China : Epidémie Coronavirus: (modèle SIR ): 28-Apr-2020
R0 = 1.16
90
80
70
Infectés (x1000 cas)
60
50
40 Prévision
Actuel
30
20
10
0
20/01/20 30/01/20 09/02/20 19/02/20 29/02/20 10/03/20 20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20
Date
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
-2000
20/01/20 30/01/20 09/02/20 19/02/20 29/02/20 10/03/20 20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20
Date
10
Australia : Epidémie Coronavirus: (modèle SIR ): 28-Apr-2020
R0 = 2.71
8
6
Infectés (x1000 cas)
4
Prévision
3 Actuel
0
29/02/20 10/03/20 20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20
Date
600
Nombre de cas infectés/jour
500
Actuel
400 Prévision
300
200
100
0
29/02/20 10/03/20 20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20
Date
11
Spain : Epidémie Coronavirus: (modèle SIR ): 27-Apr-2020
R0 = 2.17
250
200
Infectés (x1000 cas)
150
Prévision
100 Actuel
50
0
29/02/20 10/03/20 20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20 09/05/20 19/05/20
Date
8000
Nombre de cas infectés/jour
6000 Actuel
Prévision
4000
2000
0
29/02/20 10/03/20 20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20 09/05/20 19/05/20
Date
12
UnitedStates : Epidémie Coronavirus: (modèle SIR ): 28-Apr-2020
R0 = 1.94
1200
1000
Infectés (x1000 cas)
800
Prévision
Actuel
600
400
200
0
29/02/20 10/03/20 20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20 09/05/20 19/05/20 29/05/20 08/06/20
Date
4
Nombre de cas infectés/jour
3 Actuel
Prévision
0
29/02/20 10/03/20 20/03/20 30/03/20 09/04/20 19/04/20 29/04/20 09/05/20 19/05/20 29/05/20 08/06/20
Date
13
References
[2] ——–,A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics - part ii, Proc. Royal Soc. London,
138 (1932), pp. 55–83.
[3] ——-,A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics - part iii, Proc. Royal Soc. London,
141 (1933), pp. 94–112.
[4] Milan Batista, Estimation of the final size of the coronavirus epidemic by the SIR model,
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339311383
[5] https://fr.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange?q=fitVirusCOVID19
[6] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341025429_Modeling_and_Dynamics_in_Epidemiology_COVID19
[7] https://www.medias24.com/covid-19-voici-les-conclusions-du-modele-sir-applique-au-maroc-
etude-9841.html
14