netdemmilunc1 – An interaction term generated by multiplying netdem1 * mil46unc1

tgirneg – A dummy variable equal to 1 if the target signaled an initial lack of willingness to
make concessions in response to the challenger’s initiation of negotiations

tgiresc – A dummy variable equal to 1 if the target signaled resolve to escalate force after the
challenger initiated military action

tgirnegnetdem – An interaction term generated by multiplying tgirneg by netdem1

tgirescnetdem - An interaction term generated by multiplying tgiresc by netdem1

tgirnegd – An interaction term generated by multiplying tgirneg by dem1

tgirescd – An interaction term generated by multiplying tgiresc by dem1

allupp1 – The % of seats held by the governing coalition in the upper house of bicameral
challenger states (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1); in states
where the lower house has effective legislative power, the value for allow1 is used for allupp1

alllow1 – The % of seats held by the governing coalition in the lower house of the challenger
state (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1)

leadup1 – The % of seats held by the largest/primary governing party in the upper house of
bicameral challenger states (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1);
in states where the lower house has effective legislative power, the value for allow1 is used for
allupp1

leadlow1 - The % of seats held by the largest/primary governing party in the lower house of the
challenger state (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1)

nparty1 - The number of parties in the governing coalition in the challenger state (this variable
only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1)

mingovc1 – Equals 1 if the governing coalition in the challenger state has a minority of seats
(allow1<50) in the legislature (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1)

mingovp1 – Equals 1 if the largest/primary party in the challenger state holds a minority of seats
(leadlow1<50) in the legislature (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e.,
dem1=1)

majgovc1 – Equals 1 if the governing coalition in the challenger state has a majority of seats
(allow1>50) in the legislature (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1)

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majgovp1 – Equals 1 if the largest/primary party in the challenger state holds a majority of seats
(leadlow1>50) in the legislature (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e.,
dem1=1)

elecnt1 – The number of months since the last general election was held in the challenger state
(this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1)

ele12m1 – Equals 1 if a general election has been held in the challenger state in the past twelve
months (elecnt1<=12); also note that this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e.,
dem1=1

_3intgt1 – Equals 1 if the (democratic) leader of a challenger state is in a close race within 3
months of a general election (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1)

_6intgt1 – Equals 1 if the (democratic) leader of a challenger state is in a close race within 3
months of a general election (this variable only applies to democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=1)

ndneg1 - Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) challenger state is significantly non-democratic; that

is, if netdem1 is less than or equal to 0; (this variable only applies to non-democratic
challengers, i.e., dem1=0)

vndneg1 - Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) challenger state is very non-democratic; that is, if
netdem1 is less than or equal to -5; (this variable only applies to non-democratic challengers, i.e.,
dem1=0)

ncou1yr1 – Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) challenger state has not experienced a coup within
the past twelve months (this variable only applies to non-democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=0)

ncou2yr1 – Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) challenger state has not experienced a coup within
the past twenty-four months (this variable only applies to non-democratic challengers, i.e.,
dem1=0)

nvrebyr1 – Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) challenger state has NOT experienced some form
of violent political rebellion (vrebyr1=0) in the past calendar year (this variable only applies to
non-democratic challengers, i.e., dem1=0)

chnd_td1 – Equals 1 if the challenger is the non-democratic state in a mixed dyad; that is, if
dem1=0 and dem2=1

nviol20lag1 - Number of the past twenty years in which the challenger state has NOT
experienced violent political conflict; that is, the number of the past twenty years in which
nvrebyr1=1

nviodem1 - Equals 1 if the challenger is democratic according to the lagged, violence-based

measure of democratic norms (nviol20lag1 is 16 or higher)

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_20dmlg1 – Number of the past twenty years the challenger state has been democratic (in which
netdem1>=6)

pnvdem1 – Equals 1 if the challenger is democratic according to the lagged, Polity-based

measure of democratic norms (_20dmlag1 is 15 or higher)

nv20stlyr1 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, violence-based measure

of democratic norms (nviol20lag1) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a
stalemate in negotiations within the past 12 months (stalea1)

nv20st2yr1 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, violence-based measure

of democratic norms (nviol20lag1) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a
stalemate in negotiations within the past 24 months (staleb1)

nv20st5yr1 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, violence-based measure

of democratic norms (nviol20lag1) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a
stalemate in negotiations within the past 60 months (stalec1)

nv20milad1 - Equals nviol20lag1 if milrat1 > .6666

nv20milmj1 - Equals nviol20lag1 if milrat1 > .5

st1dmlg1 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, Polity-based measure of

democratic norms (_20dmlag1) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a stalemate in
negotiations within the past 12 months (stalea1)

st2dmlg1 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, Polity-based measure of

democratic norms (_20dmlag1) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a stalemate in
negotiations within the past 24 months (stalea2)

st5dmlg1 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, Polity-based measure of

democratic norms (_20dmlag1) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a stalemate in
negotiations within the past 60 months (stalea5)

pnormad1 - Equals _20dmlag1 if milrat1 > .6666

pnormmj1 - Equals _20dmlag1 if milrat1 > .5

dem2yr1 – Equals 1 if the challenger state is currently democratic (dem1=1) and has recently
become democratic (netdem1 became greater than or equal to 6) within the current calendar year
or the previous two calendar years

dem5yr1 – Equals 1 if the challenger state is currently democratic (dem1=1) and has recently
become democratic (netdem1 became greater than or equal to 6) within the current calendar year
or the previous five calendar years

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dem10yr1 – Equals 1 if the challenger state is currently democratic (dem1=1) and has recently
become democratic (netdem1 became greater than or equal to 6) within the current calendar year
or the previous ten calendar years

gviol10 – Equals 1 if the challenger is nondemocratic according to the lagged, violence-based

measure of democratic norms (nvioldem1=1), and had experienced internal violence in at least 10
of the past 20 years (nviol20lag1<10); NOTE – this variable is a hold-over from a previous
version of the Outcome data set

yrsvnd1 – The number of the past twenty years in which the challenger has been very non-
democratic; that is, its Polity net-democracy score was –5 or less

pn4_10v1 – Equals 1 if the challenger state is considered non-democratic according to the

lagged, violence-based measure of democratic norms (nvioldem1=1) and if the challenger was
free from internal violence for 10 or fewer years during the past twenty years (i.e., if
nviol20lag1<=10)

g10viol1 – Equals 1 if the challenger state is considered non-democratic according to the lagged,
violence-based measure of democratic norms (nvioldem1=1) and if the challenger experienced
significant internal violence during the past twenty years (i.e., if nviol20lag1<10, which means
the challenger experienced internal violence in at least 10 of the past 20 years)

g15viol1 – Equals 1 if the challenger state is considered non-democratic according to the lagged,
violence-based measure of democratic norms (nvioldem1=1) and if the challenger experienced
very high levels of internal violence during the past twenty years (i.e., if nviol20lag1<5, which
means the challenger experienced internal violence in at least 15 of the past 20 years)

ndnormmix1 – Equals 1 if the challenger is the nondemocratic state in a mixed dyad according
to the lagged violence measure (noutmixdyad=1 and nvioldem1=0)

mixdypolnondem1 - Equals 1 if the challenger is the nondemocratic state in a mixed dyad

according to the lagged, Polity-based measure (mixdynpj=1 and pnvdem1=0)

tdrgtyp1 – The regime type of the challenger state, based on the following classifications: 1 if
democracy (netdem1 >= 6), 2 if hereditary non-democratic monarchy, 3 if collective rule by
military junta, 4 if single-party-dominant communist state, 5 if single-party-dominant fascist
state; 9 if other

dominsec1 - Equals 1 if the regime in the challenger state is facing a domestic political threat
(current civil war or revolution; insurgency, coup, or attempted coup within the past calendar
year)

expolsec1 – Equals 1 if the challenger state is facing an external political threat

ps3dominsec1 – Equals 1 if the challenger and target have the same regime type (affinitj=1) and
the challenger is facing a domestic political threat (dominsec1=1)

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ps3expolsec1 – Equals 1 if the challenger and target have the same regime type (affinitj=1) and
the challenger is facing a external political threat (expolsec1=1)

ps4ex1 – Equals 1 if the challenger and target have different regime types (affinitj=0), the
challenger is facing an external political threat (expolse1c=1) and the country constituting the
external threat has the same regime type as the target state (as classified by tdregtyp1 & 2 )

milrat2 – Military balance between target and challenger, expressed as a percentage of the
overall dyadic military capabilities held by the target (ranges from 0-1); this variable is an
average of the two sides’ ratios of military expenditures (expratio), troops (trpratio), and
spending per troop (sptrprat).

locad2 – (applies to MIDs only) Equals 1 if the target has an advantage in the local balance of
forces

odi2 – Is the target currently engaged in another military conflict (MID, territorial dispute MID,
any type of war); 0 if no, 1 if yes

strval2 – Strategic value of disputed territory to the target; 0 if no strategic value, 1 if strategic
value

ecoval2 – Economic value of disputed territory to the target; 0 if no economic value, 1 if

economic value

netdem2 – POLITY net-democracy score for target; ranges from –10 (most non-democratic) to
+10 (most democratic)

dem2– Dummy variable to indicate that the target is democratic; 0 if netdem2 is less than +6, 1
if netdem2 is greater than or equal to +6

ndem2 – Dummy variable to indicate that the target is non-democratic; 0 if netdem2 is greater
than or equal to +6, 1 if netdem2 is less than +6

erv5netdem2– An interaction term generated by multiplying endriv5j * netdem2

erv10netdem2– An interaction term generated by multiplying endrv10j * netdem2

erv5dem2– An interaction term equal to 1 if endriv5j=1 and dem2=1

erv10dm2 – An interaction term equal to 1 if endrv10j=1 and dem2=1

stalea2 – Equals 1 if the target suffered a stalemate in the previous round of talks with the
challenger and that round of talks took place within the past twelve months; from the target’s
point of view, a “stalemate” is when the target made no or limited concessions (dvneg2 in the

5
previous talks was 0 or 1), while the challenger made no concessions (dvneg1 in the previous
talks was 0)

staleb2 – Equals 1 if the target suffered a stalemate in the previous round of talks with the
challenger and that round of talks took place within the past twenty-four months; from the
target’s point of view, a “stalemate” is when the target made no or limited concessions (dvneg2
in the previous talks was 0 or 1), while the challenger made no concessions (dvneg1 in the
previous talks was 0)

stalec2 – Equals 1 if the target suffered a stalemate in the previous round of talks with the
challenger and that round of talks took place within the past sixty months; from the target’s
point of view, a “stalemate” is when the target made no or limited concessions (dvneg2 in the
previous talks was 0 or 1), while the challenger made no concessions (dvneg1 in the previous
talks was 0)

netdem1stale2 – An interaction term generated by multiplying netdem2 * stalea2

netdem2stale2 – An interaction term generated by multiplying netdem2 * staleb2

netdem5stale2 – An interaction term generated by multiplying netdem2 * stalec2

ethval2 – Does the target have ethnic co-nationals located in the disputed territory? 0 if no, 1 if
yes

netdemethval2 – An interaction term generated by multiplying ethval2 * netdem2

ethvdem2– An interaction term generated by multiplying ethval2 * dem2

mil46unc2 – Indicates a situation of relative military parity between the target and challenger
(milrat2 is between .4 and .6)

netdemmilunc2 – An interaction term generated by multiplying netdem2* mil46unc2

allupp2 – The % of seats held by the governing coalition in the upper house of bicameral target
states (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1); in states where the lower
house has effective legislative power, the value for allow2 is used for allupp2

alllow2 – The % of seats held by the governing coalition in the lower house of the target state
(this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

leadup2 – The % of seats held by the largest/primary governing party in the upper house of
bicameral target states (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1); in states
where the lower house has effective legislative power, the value for allow2 is used for allupp2

leadlow2 - The % of seats held by the largest/primary governing party in the lower house of the
target state (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

6
nparty2 - The number of parties in the governing coalition in the target state (this variable only
applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

mingovc2 – Equals 1 if the governing coalition in the target state has a minority of seats
(allow2<50) in the legislature (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

mingovp2 – Equals 1 if the largest/primary party in the target state holds a minority of seats
(leadlow2<50) in the legislature (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

majgovc2 – Equals 1 if the governing coalition in the target state has a majority of seats
(allow2>50) in the legislature (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

majgovp2 – Equals 1 if the largest/primary party in the target state holds a majority of seats
(leadlow2>50) in the legislature (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

elecnt2 – The number of months since the last general election was held in the target state (this
variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

ele12m2 – Equals 1 if a general election has been held in the target state in the past twelve
months (elecnt2<=12); also note that this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e.,
dem2=1

_3intgt2 – Equals 1 if the (democratic) leader of a target state is in a close race within 3 months
of a general election (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

_6intgt2 – Equals 1 if the (democratic) leader of a target state is in a close race within 6 months
of a general election (this variable only applies to democratic targets, i.e., dem2=1)

ndneg2 - Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) target state is significantly non-democratic; that is, if
netdem2 is less than or equal to 0; (this variable only applies to non-democratic targets, i.e.,
dem2=0)

vndneg2 - Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) target state is very non-democratic; that is, if
netdem2 is less than or equal to -5; (this variable only applies to non-democratic targets, i.e.,
dem2=0)

ncou1yr2 – Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) target state has not experienced a coup within the
past twelve months (this variable only applies to non-democratic targets, i.e., dem2=0)

ncou2yr2 – Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) target state has not experienced a coup within the
past twenty-four months (this variable only applies to non-democratic targets, i.e., dem2=0)

nvrebyr2 – Equals 1 if the (non-democratic) target state has not experienced some form of
violent political rebellion (vrebyr2=0) in the past calendar year (this variable only applies to non-
democratic targets, i.e., dem2=0)

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chnd_td2 – Equals 1 if the target is the non-democratic state in a mixed dyad; that is, if dem2=0
and dem1=1

nviol20lag2 - Number of the past twenty years in which the target state has NOT experienced
violent political conflict; that is, the number of the past twenty years in which nvrebyr2=1

nviodem2- Equals 1 if the target is democratic according to the lagged, violence-based measure
of democratic norms (nviol20lag2 is 16 or higher)

_20dmlg2 – Number of the past twenty years the target state has been democratic (in which
netdem2>=6)

pnvdem2– Equals 1 if the target is democratic according to the lagged, Polity-based measure of
democratic norms (_20dmlag2 is 15 or higher)

nv20stlyr2 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, violence-based measure

of democratic norms (nviol20lag2) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a
stalemate in negotiations within the past 12 months (stalea2)

nv20st2yr2 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, violence-based measure

of democratic norms (nviol20lag2) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a
stalemate in negotiations within the past 24 months (staleb2)

nv20st5yr2 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, violence-based measure

of democratic norms (nviol20lag2) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a
stalemate in negotiations within the past 60 months (stalec2)

nv20milad2 - Equals nviol20lag2 if milrat2 > .6666

nv20milmj2 - Equals nviol20lag2 if milrat2 > .5

st1dmlg2 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, Polity-based measure of

democratic norms (_20dmlag2) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a stalemate in
negotiations within the past 12 months (stalea2)

st2dmlg2 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, Polity-based measure of

democratic norms (_20dmlag2) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a stalemate in
negotiations within the past 24 months (staleb2)

st5dmlg2 - An interaction term generated by multiplying the lagged, Polity-based measure of

democratic norms (_20dmlag2) times a dummy variable to indicate the presence of a stalemate in
negotiations within the past 60 months (stalec2)

pnormad2 - Equals _20dmlag2 if milrat2 > .6666

8
pnormmj2 - Equals _20dmlag2 if milrat2 > .5

dem2yr2 – Equals 1 if the target state is currently democratic (dem2=1) and has recently become
democratic (netdem2 became greater than or equal to 6) within the current calendar year or the
previous two calendar years

dem5yr2 – Equals 1 if the target state is currently democratic (dem2=1) and has recently become
democratic (netdem2 became greater than or equal to 6) within the current calendar year or the
previous five calendar years

dem10yr2 – Equals 1 if the target state is currently democratic (dem2=1) and has recently
become democratic (netdem2 became greater than or equal to 6) within the current calendar year
or the previous ten calendar years

yrsvnd2 – The number of the past twenty years in which the target has been very non-
democratic; that is, its Polity net-democracy score was –5 or less

pn4_10v2 – Equals 1 if the target state is considered non-democratic according to the lagged,
violence-based measure of democratic norms (nviodem2=1) and if the target was free from
internal violence for 10 or fewer years during the past twenty years (i.e., if nviol20lag2<=10)

g10viol2 – Equals 1 if the target state is considered non-democratic according to the lagged,
violence-based measure of democratic norms (nviodem2=1) and if the target experienced
significant internal violence during the past twenty years (i.e., if nviol20lag2<10, which means
the target experienced internal violence in at least 10 of the past 20 years)

g15viol2 – Equals 1 if the target state is considered non-democratic according to the lagged,
violence-based measure of democratic norms (nviodem2=1) and if the target experienced very
high levels of internal violence during the past twenty years (i.e., if nviol20lag2<5, which means
the target experienced internal violence in at least 15 of the past 20 years)

ndnormmix2 – Equals 1 if the target is the nondemocratic state in a mixed dyad according to the
lagged violence measure (noutmixdyad=1 and nviodem2=0)

mixdypolnondem2 - Equals 1 if the target is the nondemocratic state in a mixed dyad according
to the lagged, Polity-based measure (mixdynpj=1 and pnvdem2=0)

tdrgtyp2 – The regime type of the target state, based on the following classifications: 1 if
democracy (netdem2>= 6), 2 if hereditary non-democratic monarchy, 3 if collective rule by
military junta, 4 if single-party-dominant communist state, 5 if single-party-dominant fascist
state; 9 if other

dominsec2 - Equals 1 if the regime in the target state is facing a domestic political threat (current
civil war or revolution; insurgency, coup, or attempted coup within the past calendar year)

expolsec2 – Equals 1 if the target state is facing an external political threat

9
ps3dominsec2 – Equals 1 if the target and challenger have the same regime type (affinitj=1) and
the target is facing a domestic political threat (dominsec2=1)

ps3expolsec2 – Equals 1 if the target and challenger have the same regime type (affinitj=1) and
the target is facing a external political threat (expolsec2=1)

ps4ex2 – Equals 1 if the target and challenger have different regime types (affinitj=0), the target
is facing an external political threat (expolsec2=1) and the country constituting the external threat
has the same regime type as the challenger state (as classified by tdregtyp1)

Variables carried over from the Status Quo data set

 The next several dozen variables that you see in the Outcome data set are variables that were
originally in the Status Quo data set. They are included in the Outcome data set in order to
facilitate the estimation of a Heckman-type selection model (or similar strategic estimator), using
either dvsqngbi as the “selection” dependent variable (when attempting to explain the level of
concessions in rounds of negotiations) or dvsqesbi as the “selection” dependent variable (when
attempting to explain MID escalation). See the codebook for the Status Quo data set for more
details.

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