Example 1.20. Due to an Intemet configuration error, packets sent from New York to Los Angeles are routed through El Paso, Texas with probability 3/4. Given that a packet is routed through El Paso, suppose it has conditional probability 1/3 of being dropped. Given that a packet is not routed through Fl Paso, suppose it has conditional probsbility 1/4 of being dropped. Find the probability that a packct is dropped. Solution. To solve this problem, we use the notation! E = (routed through El Paso} and D = {packetis dropped}. ‘With this notation, it is easy to interpret the problem as telling us that P(DIE) = 1/3, P(DIES) = 1/4, and P(E) = 3/4. ‘We must now compute P(D). By the law of total probability, P(D) = P(DIE)P(E) + P(DIE®)P(E*) 1/3)(3/4) + (1/4)(1—3/4) = 1/441/16 = 5/16. (1.25) Example 1.21 (continuation of Intemet Example 1.20). Find the conditional probabil- ity that a packet is routed through El Paso given that it is not dropped. Solution. With the notation of the previous example, we are being asked to find P(E|D°). Write P(DS\E)P(E) ~~ PD From (1.24) we have P(E) = 3/4 and P(D*|E) = | — P(D|E) = 1-1/3. From (1.25), P(D*) = 1—P(D) 5/16. Hence, P(e) = 2/3 /4) _ £ 11/16 If we had not already computed P(/2) in the previous example, we would have computed P(D*) directly using the law of total probability Example 1.22. In Example 1.21, before we lear any information about a packet, that packet's prior probability of being routed through El Paso is P(E) =3/4= 0.75. After we ‘observe that the packet is not dropped, the posterior probability that the packet was routed through El Paso is P(E |D*) = 8/11 ~ 0.73, which is different from the prior probability.Example 1.23. An Intemet packet travels from its source to router I, from router 1 to router 2, and from router 2 to its destination. If routers drop packets independently with probability p, what is the probability that a packet is successfully transmitted from its source to its destination? Solution. & packet is successfully transmitted if and only if neither router drops it. To put this into the language of events, for i 1,2, let D; denote the event that the packet is dropped by router i. Let S denote the event that the packet is successfully transmitted. Then ‘5 occurs if and only if the packet is not dropped by router 1 and it is not dropped by router 2. ‘We can write this symbolically as 5 = D§nDS. Since the problem tells us that D, and D2 are independent events, so are Df and DS. Hence, P(s) = P(D§NDS) P(D{) PDS) {1=P@)][1-P(D»)] = (1-p)y. Example 1.25. Three bits are transmitted across a noisy channel and the number of correct receptions is noted. Find the probsbility that the number of corwetly received bits is two, assuming bit errors are mutually independent and that on each bit transmission the probability of correct reception is A for some fixed 0 << 1. Solution. When the problem talks about the event that two bits are correctly received, ‘we interpret this as meaning exactly two bits are received conrectly; ic., the other bit is, received in error, Hence, there are three ways this can happen: the single error can be in the first bit, the second bit, or the third bit. To put this into the language of events, let Ci denote the event that the ith bit is received comectly (so P(Ci) =A), and let $2 denote the event that two of the three bits sent are correctly received." Then $2 = (CINENC)U[G.NC}NC) U(C:NG@NG). This is a disjoint union, and so P(S2) is equal to P(CENE NEG) + P(CLNEHNG) +P(CLNGNC). 31) Next, since C), C2, and C3 are mutually independent, so are Cy and (C) 1C3). Hence, Cf and (C1 C2) are also independent. Thus, P(GENEANGS) = PICA) PENG) P(C{) P(C2)P(Cs) = (1-aja2. Treating the last two terms in (1.31) similarly, we have P(S2) — 3(1 —2)42. If bits are as likely to be received correctly as incorrectly, ic., A = 1/2, then P(S) = 3/8.Problems 1.1: Sample spaces, outcomes, and events 1. A computer job scheduler chooses one of six processors to assign programs to. Sug- gest a sample space to model all possible choices of the job scheduler. 2. A class of 25 students is surveyed to find out how many own an MP3 player. Suggest ‘a sample space to model all possible results of the survey. 3. The ping commandis used to measure round-trip times for Intemet packets. Suggest ‘a sample space to model all possible round-trip times, What is the event that @ round- trip time exceeds 10 ms? 4. A cell-phone tower has a circular coverage area of radius 10 km. We observe the source locations of calls received by the tower. (@) Suggest a sample space to model all possible source locations of calls that the tower can receive. () Using your sample space from part (2), what is the event that the source location of a call is between 2 and 5 km from the tower. 53. If P(C) and P(BNC) are positive, derive the chain rule of conditional probabi P(ANBIC) = P(A|BAC)P(BIC). Also show that P(AMBNC) = PIAIBNC)P(BIC)P(C). 54. The university buys workstations from two different suppliers, Mini Micros (MM) and Highest ‘Technology (HT). On delivery, 10% of MM’s workstations are defec- tive, while 20% of H's workstations are defective. The university buys 140 MM ‘workstations and 60 HT workstations for its computer lab. Suppose you walk into the compater lab and randomly sit down at a workstation. (@) Whatis the probability that your workstation is from MM? From HT? (b) Whats the probability that your workstation is defective? Answer: 0.13. (© Given that your workstation is defective, what is the probability that it came from Mini Micros? Answer: 7/13. 55. The probability that a cell in a wireless system is overloaded is 1/3. Given that it is ‘overloaded, the probability of. blocked call is0.3. Given that itis not overloaded, the probability of a blocked call is 0.1. Find the conditional probability that the system is overloaded given that your call is blocked. Answer: 0.6.57. Professor Random has taught probability for many years. She has found that 80% of students who do the homework pass the exam, while 10% of students who don’t do the homework pass the exam. If 60% of the students do the homework, what percent of students pass the exam? Of students who pass the exam, what percent did the homework? Answer: 12/13. 58. A certain jet aircraft's autopilot has conditional probability 1/3 of failure given that it employs faulty microprocessor chip. The autopilot has conditional probability 1/10 of failure given that itemploys a nonfaulty chip. According to the chip manufacturer, the probability of a customer's receiving a faulty chip is 1/4. Given that an autopilot failure has occurred, find the conditional probability that a faulty chip was used. Use the following notation: Av = {autopilot fails} Ce = {chip is faulty}. Answer: 10/19. 62. A certain binary communication system has a biterror rate of 0.1; i., in transmitting single bit, the probability of receiving the bit in error is 0.1. To transmit messages, a three-bit repetition code is used. In other words, to send the message 1, 111 is transmitted, and to send the message 0, 000 is transmitted. At the receiver, if two or more Is are received, the decoder decides that message 1 was sent; otherwise, ie., ‘two or more zeros are received, it decides that message 0 was sent. Assuming bit errors occur independently, find the probability that the decoder puts out the wrong message. Answer: 0.028. 68. Suppose that A and B are independent events, and suppose that A and C are indepen- dentevents. If Cc B, determine whether or not A and B \ C are independent.