2014 Forecast

Jake Bernstein
Trading Webinar
http://www.jakebernstein.com
2014 ANNUAL FORECAST

The Storm before the Storm
Prepare for and Profit from
Record-Breaking International and Domestic
Financial and Geopolitical Instability
Sunday 17 November 2013

© 2013 by Jake Bernstein
www.jakebernstein.com jake@trade-futures.com
800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600
11 Nov 2012…”2013 will most likely be a repeat of 2012
but with more volatility and clear signs of emerging
inflation. Odds continue to favor new all time highs in
many markets. We will not go off the so called fiscal
cliff..the world will not end on 21 December...China will
not collapse…Europe will not collapse, governments will
continue to print fiat money, the stock market will not
collapse and politicians will continue to steal our money
and inhibit growth with excessive regulation and taxation.
Odds of a huge cyber-terror attack grow daily as do odds
of a military confrontation with Iran by Israel and/or the
USA. Massive price swings will characterize all markets
as governments grope for clear and consistent directions
and policies. Speculation will reign supreme.
(c) Copyright 2013 Jake Bernstein 2
www.jakebernstein.com
• A forecast without a trigger means less than nothing…a
forecast without a trigger is dangerous
• Today I will give you forecasts and triggers that should
be watched for
• CONFLUENCE is pervasive
• I “see” the road ahead clearly
• Today we will look at 5 metrics
• Timing more important than price
• I WILL project some price targets but TREND and timing
will be emphasized
• A HUGE transfer of wealth is now in process
• THE KEY is interest rates
3
(c) Copyright 2013 Jake Bernstein www.jakebernstein.com
Topics Today
Overview of markets, cycles, trends and projections including stocks, futures and Forex
Interest rate trends and forecasts – BIG CHANGE COMING – get ready!
Currency relationships and the growing currency wars
Growth of the “bit coin” and alternative underground currencies: What it means to you
Grain and soybean forecast: CYCLES and COMMERCIALS foretell of explosive upside
Has sugar finally exploded as predicted?
COFFEE: Sleeping giant ready to show its strength
Real Estate and US Farmland: My forecast was right. What’s next? Harness the power
Can US farmland double from current levels?
Copper: all time highs coming? I say yes…and I’ll show you why
Stocks...up…up…and away?
Is a social media and Internet bubble inevitable?
The biggest and best energy plays are still ahead of us…I’ll name a few
PRECIOUS METALS: The bull markets aren’t over yet...the evidence
Stock and commodity picks for 2014
Intermediate and long-term cycles in all active futures
Is there a stock market pattern in years numbered “4”?
INTEREST RATES: The end of the cheap borrowing era
Meats destined to soar to new all time highs?
The best emerging market plays
Playing the interest rate yield curve spread
Why the COT Commercials data is your best forecasting friend: SOLID evidence! 4
My 6 best ETF commodity trades and timing
Webinar: Summary and Goals
• I see inflationary patterns and trends developing into 2014 and beyond
• There is confluence for higher prices just as there was confluence for
cycle lows at the last bottoms that were correctly predicted
• The coming long term trend up trends could break more records just as
many markets did in 2012 as predicted?
• I want go on record with my forecasts so that you may prepare for some
of the biggest and most volatile moves in market history
• I want to show you the major cycles and patterns I follow and why they
are now suggesting potentially serious inflation
• To show you why I think that 2014 and beyond may witness more
explosive moves to the upside in many commodities and stocks
• To reject the popular idea that recession or depression are coming
• To tell you what you best investments and trades may be best if my
expectations is correct
• Help you prepare for the biggest up and down moves ever seen
• Help you prepare for the largest volatility ever seen
• Help you get on board for more GENERATIONAL opportunities
5
The Major Forces into 2014-16
• Long term cycles and status
• Currency debasement – fiat money
• Currency relationships
• Interest rate cycles and relationships
• Timing triggers
• Geo-political instability (Africa, Mid East)
• Intermediate term cycles
• COT status of Commercials
• Small trader sentiment extremes
6
A few words of caution
• These are investments not trades
• My comments are not short term or intermediate term
• Don’t be seduced by those who drink the kool aid
• Example: low interest rates made stocks go up so
therefore rising interest rates will make stocks go down
• Example: inflation wont be a problem for a long time
• Example: the small trader is always wrong
• Several entry attempts may be needed
• Profit maximizing and PATIENCE are critically important
• Don’t look at your investments daily or during the day

Let’s look at the cycles
Interest Rates
8
Eurodollar % late 2011
9
What it means and what it says now
10
Approx 6 ¼ yr cycle TBonds
11
30 yr vs 10 yr 2011
12
CRB Cycle: the driver
• CRB tells us about commodity trends
• Weighted to energy
• Next chart

15
16
The Real Estate Cycle USA: Next top projection 2020
18
19
421
116% avg

8.3% JRS

7.4% RNP

Recommended Trades for lumber

US Farmland
• Much more than doubled since my forecast in 1998 and
2001
• No bubble evident a this time
• More land held by fewer owners
• As crop $ rise so will land $
• Still only half to 2/3 way thru growth cycle

Copper! The amazing confluence

Also COPX SCCO, JJC

Economic factors supporting the cycles
• World is being flooded with fiat money: inflationary
• Interest rates effectively at zero or very low until recently
• Governments debased currency to cure problem – it will
work but the price will be inflation and WE the people will
pay for it with higher costs across the board
• The inflationary stage is set
• China continues to accumulate and hoard raw commodities
which will further cause price surges
• More money chasing fewer goods: definition of inflation
• Commercials and large traders continue to accumulate
massive long positions in some markets
• Commercials: buying cheap stuff with low % on debt
Factors and cycles (continued)
• Cycles point higher in most commodities and stocks
• Situation is similar to the 1970’s patterns
• Electronic trading has increased volatility and price
swings
• Mistrust of governments and lack of confidence in paper
currency has created demand and buying of things that
are REAL and TANGIBLE
• The confluence is a near “perfect storm” for massive
rallies and volatility into 2014 and beyond

Cycle trends now
• The real estate cycle
• Other cycles: 9-11 years and 3-4 years
• History repeats
• The 50-60 year cycle in interest rates at a
major low
• Currency cycles
• Real estate cycles

Long Term Cycle Lengths and Status: Charts
• Almost every market has a 3-4 year cycle also
known as the business cycle
• Corn 5.7 years and 10 years
• Soybeans 4-5 years and 10 years
• BrPound 8.1 years
• Cattle and hogs 10-11 years and 3-4 years
• Yen 7 years
• Stock market 10 years and 4-5 years
• Nat Gas 3-4 years
• Crude oil 3-4 years and 8-9 years

• Grain and soybean complex
• KEY FEATURE commercials buying
record high quantities of wheat, soybean
oil and corn!
• WHY?
• Let’s take a close look

19.84
150% avg

69.70
170%Avg

683
162%Avg

13.20
205%Avg

How did the forecast 2 yrs
ago turn out for wheat/corn
spread?

685
141%Avg

Grain and soy complex recommended
stocks and ETF’s
ADM
BG
ANDE
MOS
POT
AGU
MON
JJG

Softs
Sugar
Coffee
Cocoa
OJ
And ETF’s for softs

NEXT MAJOR MOVE! Must wait for trigger
19359

Also CAFÉ, JVA

Cheap sugar and coffee = big bucks for $BUX

Cocoa (NIB) last year

Why?

GIS

HRL…why?

Why is COTC more important in markets like OJ?

• Precious metals
• Gold
• Silver
• Platinum
• Palladium
• Stocks and ETFs
• BACKDROP of fundamentals critical
• COST OF PRODUCTION – energy costs
73
Last forecast platinum to gain on gold
79
Precious metals recommendations
HL
PAL
GDXJ
NG
ASA
SLW
SIL
GOLD
FCX
SCCO
JJC (ETF)
Many more

Energies
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
ETFs

Consider a proxy – pros and cons
• No expiration date in stocks
• Lower risk
• No contract switches affecting indicators
• More margin – less volatility
• Intermediate term indicators more accurate
• Less leverage
• Can pay dividends
• Can more easily average down
• Many choices and price ranges
• ETF more balanced
• Can often lead

Cattle Cycles and the Mid-Decade Pattern

Some meats recommended last year
and year before
• HRL
• SAFM

• Major currencies
• Emerging currency MX
• Currency wars – 4x pairs

DJT

Topics Today
137
Topics Today
Overview of markets, cycles, trends and projections including stocks, futures and Forex
Interest rate trends and forecasts – BIG CHANGE COMING – get ready!
Currency relationships and the growing currency wars
Growth of the “bit coin” and alternative underground currencies: What it means to you
Grain and soybean forecast: CYCLES and COMMERCIALS foretell of explosive upside
Has sugar finally exploded as predicted?
COFFEE: Sleeping giant ready to show its strength
Real Estate and US Farmland: My forecast was right. What’s next? Harness the power
Can US farmland double from current levels?
Copper: all time highs coming? I say yes…and I’ll show you why
Stocks...up…up…and away?
Is a social media and Internet bubble inevitable?
The biggest and best energy plays are still ahead of us…I’ll name a few
PRECIOUS METALS: The bull markets aren’t over yet...the evidence
Stock and commodity picks for 2014
Intermediate and long-term cycles in all active futures
Is there a stock market pattern in years numbered “4”?
INTEREST RATES: The end of the cheap borrowing era
Meats destined to soar to new all time highs?
The best emerging market plays
Playing the interest rate yield curve spread
Why the COT Commercials data is your best forecasting friend: SOLID evidence! 138
My 6 best ETF commodity trades and timing
• Mentoring appointment interview
• http://www.comtrade1.com/letter/
• Webinar was recorded
I can be reached at 800-678-5253 or 831-430-0600

• Email me if you have questions:
• jake@trade-futures.com
• Best of trading
• Jake Bernstein
© 2010 by Jake Bernstein

www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600


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Jake Bernstein

2014 ANNUAL FORECAST

Sunday 17 November 2013

(c) Copyright 2013 Jake Bernstein 7

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I can be reached at 800-678-5253 or 831-430-0600

© 2010 by Jake Bernstein

(c) Copyright 2013 Jake Bernstein 139

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